0.8″ Average Per Each Time It Snows In KC

/0.8″ Average Per Each Time It Snows In KC

0.8″ Average Per Each Time It Snows In KC

Good morning bloggers,

1

Is Kansas City the most difficult location to forecast the weather in the world, or at least the United States?  I would argue yes. We do a very good job at it, but this last week has had a black eye on some of the meteorologists in this city.  Think about this statistic:  38 snowfalls in the past four years have added up to 30.4″ of snow, for an average of 0.8″ per snow.  So, if we have any chances of snow, we might as well not look at the models and just predict under an inch and there is a great chance we would be accurate here in KC

5

Yesterday, it hit 81 degrees in Miami.  It was 50 degrees colder than that in KC.  A big warm up is on the way, however.  We will discuss the pattern and changes in the next blog. If you were watching me last night on 41 Action News after the Olympics you may have seen that I pulled or tore a muscle or tendon in my left arm during the newscast. The clicker, that I use to change the maps, flew out of my hand into the air, and I tried to catch it, and something went out.  Hopefully it is not that bad.  So, today is a short blog entry. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-02-13T07:54:01+00:00February 12th, 2018|General|56 Comments

56 Comments

  1. NoBeachHere February 12, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

    That stinks. Get that arm looked at and I hope you heal up quickly.

  2. Urbanity February 12, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    Well I hope you are okay, as momma used to say, drink more water.

    Gary it’s been another very disappointing winter regarding precipitation. I know the LRC indicates that a unique pattern sets up every year around mid-October, but there seems to be something else in play that is producing very similar winter results. What is your take on this? I know out here in central Kansas we haven’t had rain or snow in the last four years between Nov and Feb. I don’t know what mechanisms drive the monsoon seasons in the desert southwest but it seems similar out here.

    • Gary February 12, 2018 at 8:35 am - Reply

      Yes, very similar winter results, but still very, very different patterns. It is just not a good trend. Hopefully we don’t sing the same tune next winter, but this one is just horrible for us weather enthusiasts, here, in Wichita, Joplin, Amarillo, Dodge City.

      Gary

  3. Mr. Pete February 12, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    Saw you on the air last night Gary. Looked really painful. Hope you feel better.

  4. Miss Jess February 12, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Feel better Gary! I saw you on air last night and it looked so painful! I hope it is nothing serious!

  5. Three7s February 12, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Sick of this cold. Bring on spring and thunderstorms.

  6. LYITC41 February 12, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    It snows in Chicago and Sault Ste Marie
    It snows everywhere ‘cept for good ‘ol KC
    Barely a dusting in south OP 123rd & BV Pkwy, hope we get some rain later this week.

    • Classy Cat February 12, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

      Before this past weekend, Chicago was in a big snow drought as well. It’s not just here. Des Moines, Omaha……they’ve gotten a couple recently, but they were suffering from lack of snow (if you like snow) and precipitation in general as well. The pattern has sucked for quite a few folks.

  7. Michael Casteel February 12, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Hope you get better Gary. Thanks for all you and your staff do for this Blog and the weather! Happy Monday!
    Michael

  8. Richard February 12, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

    Real sorry about that Gary. Hope it’s not serious.
    Is that the arm that had cancer ?

    Ready for Spring.
    Funny how Friday will be the lone cold day with warm on either side of it.

  9. MMike February 12, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    The first 12 days of FEB. could have been way more impressive for snow around eastern KS. and MO…we really missed everything by about 40-125 miles. Think about it and look back.

    We started with the surprise snow on Sunday Feb. 4th. (Yes, it was taken out by almost every forecast the night before) That was a 1-3 inch snow that wasn’t suppose to happen.
    Then, we were looking at that Tuesday Feb. 6th snow, the data over the previous weekend had a nice 1-4 inch snow for KC. Around hour 36-30 prior to the possible snow event, all data was indicating a north shift, well, that happened and most of us in KC didn’t even see a flake here in KC.
    That brings us to Thursday night through Sunday morning….several disturbances rolled through the Plains and Midwest, just to our NW, N, and NE of here. I mean just to our NW, N, and NE. The chances were there and we just were a bit unlucky.

    Many will say, hey, the LRC told us that it would be this way here in KC. Although I agree to some extent, I don’t agree totally. Why, because the folks to our NW, N, and NE were all well below average on snowfall also and hadn’t experienced a 10 day period with multiple snow events per this LRC. So, why wasn’t the same thought of “this is just this year’s LRC” applicable for them? I’m sure they were saying the same thing that no way this pattern would produce a stretch like that. From NW KS to north central KS to central and southern NEB. to central and southern IOWA to Northern MO up to northeastern MO up to eastern Iowa up to Chicago were all less then 50 percent of normal on snowfall and some as low as 25 percent of normal. Now, many locations(not all) are average to above average on snow to date. Remember, this was just 40-125 miles away. The pattern wasn’t producing for them either until these last 10 days.

    So, the narrative that is constantly pushed on here that once in a pattern, there is no way that we can change it, I feel is just not fully true. We just had some horrible luck on the track of the those disturbances. Had they tracked just 50-100 miles farther south, we would have a much different mood on here. How did a horrible, below average snow pattern change for those folks such a short distance away? If the pattern says this, how such the big change for them?

    My point, things can change, unfortunately for us here in eastern KS. and MO. we have had just a bit of bad luck. The cold was there, the storms were there, we just were a bit south of all the action. What a wild 10 day stretch for folks just to our NW, N, and NE of here. Some cities had measurable snow for 9 straight days…setting records. OH my, that hurts the snow lovers here in KC….so close!!!

    • Troy Newman February 12, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

      I agree with what you have said. In NW RP county I have 14″ for the year which is right at average for this time of year but 2/3 of that came last week. I am below normal on precip but that is mostly from the Oct 15-Dec20 period where almost nothing fell at all. Some NE locations are actually above normal on Snow. It seems anyplace South of here is really struggling to see much.

  10. MMike February 12, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Where do we go from here? Well, we have a little over 1 month of winter left, I know, most will say that winter is over. I don’t think so, if the pattern is cycling like we think it is, the cold air will still be a big part of this pattern going through the rest of this month and into March. We will have big warm-ups also, but I don’t see a sustained warm-up like last Feb. Remember, we were 10-11 degrees above average last Feb. finished the last 15 days with many 60 and 70+ degree days. We were quite green by March 5th last year. If the pattern holds true and is cycling like we are told it is, we should still see many cold outbreaks and in turn a slower start to the growing season.

    Also, do we get wet? Well, last year at this time most were certain that we would not. We turned that corner really fast late in March last year and did well most of the growing season last year. Look back on the drought monitor, most of KS and MO were out of drought headlines most of the growing season outside of a few pockets here and there. I know there were dry(unlucky) spots, but, overall, there was no extreme drought conditions in MO and KS. Plus, will we have a cooler then average spring and summer with all these NW flow set-ups, strong cold fronts..If the pattern is cycling, we should not see weeks on end of heat and no rain…

    These drier storms now will be wetter once the seasonal warmth and moisture return. We have had way too much action for us not to see some wet set-ups. Will some of these cold fronts stall in our area, will the storms to our South and SE(there has been many down that way with good moisture feed) move NW during the spring? I know, the thought on here that is nothing will ever change as the LRC is set, but, as last year proved that wrong, we all can be positive that the last month of winter and the spring/summer months will have some active times with some late winter snows, some timely rains and some tolerable temps.

    Spring is on it’s way, that is a for sure,(it shows up every year) but, unlike last year where winter gave up rather easily, I think this winter will put up much more of a fight.

    • Rickmckc February 12, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

      Great comments as always Mike!

      • MMike February 12, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

        Hi Rick,

        Thanks so much! I hope all is well with you and maybe you play golf on Wednesday….the weather looks beautiful.

        I also want to make clear that I feel the idea behind the LRC is legit, the cycling pattern that is. I just feel that each cycle can produce different results based off the cold fronts, warm surges, ULL’s etc. and where they set up. I also feel that you can have bad luck. Our friend north of the city, Kurt, is a perfect example. He was 25-35 miles away from 40+ inches of rain in 2017. That’s just plain cruel. I wish you better luck this year, Kurt.

        I also agree with our friend from the Valley in Lawerence, Bill, I too think this has been much more of a winter then the last two. Case and point with me, my company has worked 8 events, 6 more then last year and 3 more then the last two years combined. WOW!! All with 5-7.5 inches of snow around town. I say 7.5 because a few of our locations where we measure have had as hi as 7.5 total. Why have we worked so many events, well, the timing of all the events have been perfect this season. Very cold air in place and every flake in each event stuck, so, we had many treatments events. So, our snow sales this winter have totaled more this season then the last two combined. Had some flash freezing events too that required treatment.

        In my business, snow sales are pure bonus money, plain and simple. We have had a lot of bonus money this season even know our snow totals are very low.

        1 month to go snow lovers, NEVER GIVE UP!!!!

        • MMike February 12, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

          Latest GFS has some players on the field through the next 16 days with cold air in play, so, let’s see if we can get a 2013 repeat snow lovers…remember that dream stretch after the 21st of Feb. that year. KC and surrounding areas saw 20-30 inches of snow by the end of March.

          Let’s go down that road again! I think we were in a La Nina that year also, which favors late season snows.

          It’s never over until it’s over. Right??

    • NoBeachHere February 12, 2018 at 12:31 pm - Reply

      MMike, I agree. Been saying since early January that March could be our best chance at good snow.
      Perhaps an answer to your question about how and what changed, increased dew points and humidity were present this go around.
      Possibly?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 12, 2018 at 1:46 pm - Reply

      I was getting eaten alive by Mosquitos last February while I was building deer blind in the creek bottoms. I hope that was a fluke, I can’t deal with mosquitos that early in the year. I was fishing and doing quite well last Februaury, I would take the fishing right now but it’s going to be a later start to fishing season with the cold spells we keep getting

      • Stl78 February 12, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

        The mesquitos in my neck of the woods here in mn are absolutely terrible! Fortunately its cold 11 months a yr!😂

        • REAL HUMEDUDE February 12, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

          And yet some people are still of the thought that cold kills bugs, WE WISH!
          of that was the case MN would be mosquito and tick free, yet MN has Moose dropping dead from getting sucked dry from too many ticks. It’s a common fallacy among those that don’t spend Alot of time outdoors

          • JoeK February 12, 2018 at 5:49 pm - Reply

            Hume,

            Actually. if it were to stay sub-zero for an extended amount of time, it would impact the bugs ( in our region) as they adapt to their environment over time much like Minnesota. I spoke with an entomologist and discovered the only effective way to knock down the mosquito and tick population is to have dry and hot conditions as they need water and humidity to thrive. So a little drought once in awhile is probably a good thing. Droughts may be natures way of keeping insect populations under control?

          • Anonymous by choice February 12, 2018 at 6:19 pm - Reply

            Talk to an entomologist with the MN DNR. They will tell you that the only way to kill the emarald ash borer (other than introducing another invasive insect species that could kill it) is excessively cold temperatures. They will also agree that the cold has very little effect, if any, on the mosquito population. Need hot and dry for that.

            Talk to local entomologists and they will tell you that our cold, dry winter will knock down the oak mite population substantially. Should also kill a lot of cicada larvae (grubs). This spring/summer will tell if that’s true.

            Mosquitos are not a big issue in our area either way. I grew up in MN. Big difference.

            • Richard February 12, 2018 at 7:49 pm - Reply

              In Alaska they come out at the first wiff of “warm” temps. Ppl have to wear protective gear when out anywhere near forest/trees. Mosquito masks, etc. The long months of cold do nothing to the population. It is the State Bird ! 😄 So thick at times people can’t even enjoy being outside.

              • Ross February 13, 2018 at 5:55 am

                I don’t remember it that bad when I lived in Sitka. Maybe it’s worse on the mainland.

    • Mike Holm February 12, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

      I think the wild card will be the weak La Nina. It should be neutral by late March. Gary called for a drought and multiple heat waves last year–he could have just been 1 year off the way it is setting up this year. I’m sure this extremely cold winter with multiple arctic outbreaks has no impact on summer, but I’d bet we break our 4 year streak of under 100 degrees and 3 inch snow, although next winter.

  11. Ben February 12, 2018 at 10:34 am - Reply

    The drought continues to grow in the western corn belt. Makes you wonder if it will continue in to spring and summer. Of course we had dry winters the last two years and decent rainfall in the next two seasons so I don’t think there is any correlation.

    • Troy Newman February 12, 2018 at 11:55 am - Reply

      I think what some people on here are hopeful about is that we have had very little ridging overhead during this LRC. It has been mostly off to our West and quite a ways off to our West a lot of the time. I am not sure how this will play out in the summer. Right now I would think the SW High Plains and areas near there would have the biggest threat of drought but I suppose that is usually the case. I will be interested to see what Gary and his team come up with for a summer forecast.

  12. terry February 12, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    Gary Are we still expected 2nd half of February to be cold ? When does the beginning of the cycle start shouldn’t be soon? And any precipitation?

  13. Heat MIser February 12, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    OUCH…that sucks, hang in there Gary.

    Still hoping for a big, wet snow March…lol!!!

  14. Craig February 12, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    The latest GFS has a nice snowstorm nine days from now.
    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. As if!

    • Heat Miser February 12, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

      LoL!!!! WOO HOO!!!!

  15. Troy Newman February 12, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

    It does appear that the trough thats been over the Middle of the US most of Feb is going to move back to the West. If this is correct we should see a SW flow and some decent storms come out. Of course we still need to get lucky and get one to track where we need it. We haven’t had much luck so far with this LRC but at least we might get missed from a different direction for a while.

  16. Patrick Savage February 12, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    nws pleasant hill has been hinting at some winter activity in the next 7 days.

    I also agree with the poster who mentioned a cooler summer this year, I also think we could see some flooding issues in the area this late spring/early summer.

  17. Bobbie February 12, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

    Winter is over. Maybe one or two legit snow chances imo

    • JoeK February 12, 2018 at 5:53 pm - Reply

      Bobbie,

      Not according to the LRC. Watch the cycle where we begin to transition from Winter to Spring. We are likely going to have a few cold fronts strong enough coupled with more available Gulf moisture, that produce some stronger systems. One concern I have is with the potential for ice with these types of set-ups. The 17 day stretch we experienced in October is a good indicator of what is possible in March. Just my 2 cents

      • Gary February 12, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

        Yes, it is due in between February 22nd and March 15th. February 22nd would be a 46 day cycle, February 25th would be 47-days, and February 28th would be a 48-day cycle. So, likely within two weeks we begin the stormier potential 17-day stretch.

  18. Kurt February 12, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

    While everyone wants winter to be over, April 21st 1992, mother nature had something to say about a big send off for winter. That east Sunday was rainy and cool in the 40’s and 50’s. One the Monday after, woke up to wet snow that morning and off and on snow all day that intensified to a heavy wet snow that evening. Ended up with foot of snow on April 21st. Fortunately it never dropped below 30 and in two days I was hunting mushrooms, some that were flattened by the weight of the heave wet snow.

    My parents lived through a blizzard around mother’s day in the 1950’s, so winter can hang on into May around here.

    I just want to not have the cloud of bad luck this entire lrc or I am going to camp out in MMike’s yard where it was so lush and green this summer (smiley face).

    • Mark February 12, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

      Yeah, but was the ’91-’92 winter a complete dud like this winter has been?

  19. Kurt February 12, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    I meant that it was Easter Sunday and the snowstorm was the Monday after Easter

  20. Richard February 12, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    Gary on air said 3-4 more chances fir snow until Spring is here.
    Btw no mention of his arm. He looks fine

    • Gary February 12, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

      My arm is hurting. I did mention it at 4 PM. It is likely a muscle sprain/nerve pull near my elbow that seems to extend up my arm, but hopefully it heals on its own. Likely no workouts for a week or longer, but I will take this if it truly gets better. Thank you for the concerns and positive thoughts.

      And yes, three or four more chances. This pattern is producing a lot of chances. Jeff was noticing more of an October look to the pattern, so let’s see and I will analyze and open up the discussion soon.

      Gary

      • Richard February 12, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

        Sorry Gary. I tuned in after 4:30. Did not know you mentioned your arm earlier.
        Glad it is not serious. Thanks for updating.

      • Richard February 12, 2018 at 8:59 pm - Reply

        So would that be considered a work related injury Gary ?
        Injured on the job more likely.
        Time off from using the clicker shoukd be in order.
        What did the Dr say to do for it.

        • Gary February 12, 2018 at 9:36 pm - Reply

          Just some advil, some ice, and some rest. Rest, rest, rest. But, that is difficult. I will take at least a week off from working out.

          • Richard February 12, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

            I would take more than a week off from working out.
            I found that out the hard way years ago. Torn meniscus. Very painful.
            .

          • Mr. Pete February 13, 2018 at 12:13 am - Reply

            Gary I hope the pain is gone. When I saw you on the air last night when it happened it didn’t look good at all. I was concerned

  21. Troy Newman February 12, 2018 at 5:20 pm - Reply

    Looks like the Euro has some heavy rain for KC and points South in about a week.

  22. Patrick Savage February 12, 2018 at 5:52 pm - Reply

    Hope it’s not freezing rain, could the pattern be changing to a wetter one in the next week?

  23. Troy Newman February 12, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

    It looks like its going to be wet somewhere. Probably depends upon how far West the Trough ends up. I saw some mention of 2013 above. I looked it up and we had only 7″ of snow up here by the end of January. We ended with 35” I think that is the year the Royals and Rays got snowed out at the beginning of May. Don’t know that it will be anything like that but its happened before at least.

  24. Nick February 12, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

    I too have hope that the “active” pattern with fronts and troughs will translate to wetter weather this spring and summer, that being said, I still don’t know we will still have to fight the pattern of having positively tilted troughs, add to the fact that the upperlevel energy becomes weaker in the warm season, if the fronts and systems turn wet, then we could end up being fine for sure, but if they stay drier, then the wind will help to expedite the drying, then again a few nights ago sitting outside on my break and looking at the ripply strato/altocumulus clouds with a cold stout northeast wind, I was wondering if that would end up being west to east moving complexes of rain and storms north of a front with us in the cold air and having strong east winds( with some wake low winds) in the spring( like we had last year). I think October was a good sign that this pattern will start getting wet in the spring but at the same time we seemed to be near the area where things were just getting thier act together, then again if we are in that spot that could be interesting for severe weather season( even the positivity of the troughs) sometimes that fact that positively tilted troughs limit the amount of storms can help the individual ones be stronger. it will be interesting to see how things unfold but I am pulling for us to not be in the sucker hole again this year, 😛

  25. Urbanity February 12, 2018 at 10:10 pm - Reply

    With only Arkansas and Montana wetter than average this month, most of the CONUS was drier than normal. Thirty-three states ranked in the driest third of the historical record for December, including twelve states in the top ten driest category. The twelve spanned the country from coast to coast and included California (second driest), Oregon (eighth driest), Nevada (ninth driest), Colorado and New Mexico (both seventh driest), Kansas (fourth driest), Iowa (fifth driest), Illinois (seventh driest), West Virginia (eighth driest), Virginia (fourth driest), and Delaware and Maryland (both fifth driest). More than a fourth (30.1 percent) of the country was very dry (had December precipitation in the driest tenth of the historical record). When averaged across the CONUS, December 2017 ranked as the ninth driest December in the 1895-2017 record.

  26. Nick February 12, 2018 at 10:15 pm - Reply

    There has been alot of dryness, there is no doubt about that, and I can def. see it going down a very bad road very fast, but I’m hoping things turn around, but only time will tell.

    • Roger February 13, 2018 at 1:49 am - Reply

      The wording from The Drought Monitor is pretty serious. They are definitely concerned.

  27. f00dl3 February 13, 2018 at 5:20 am - Reply

    I sure hope the Rain isn’t always 10 days away…

    Is Winter over? I am kind of getting the impression based off models we are done with snow for the year now.

    • Anonymous February 13, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

      No winter is not over and if you would read The comments Gary made with someone Gary said 3 or 4 more chances of snow this winter

  28. Terry February 13, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

    No it’s not yet. Gary said in blog there will comment and said There will be 3 or 4 more snow chances this winter still . Read about it in this blog.

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