0.8″ Average Per Each Time It Snows In KC

Good morning bloggers,

1

Is Kansas City the most difficult location to forecast the weather in the world, or at least the United States?  I would argue yes. We do a very good job at it, but this last week has had a black eye on some of the meteorologists in this city.  Think about this statistic:  38 snowfalls in the past four years have added up to 30.4″ of snow, for an average of 0.8″ per snow.  So, if we have any chances of snow, we might as well not look at the models and just predict under an inch and there is a great chance we would be accurate here in KC

5

Yesterday, it hit 81 degrees in Miami.  It was 50 degrees colder than that in KC.  A big warm up is on the way, however.  We will discuss the pattern and changes in the next blog. If you were watching me last night on 41 Action News after the Olympics you may have seen that I pulled or tore a muscle or tendon in my left arm during the newscast. The clicker, that I use to change the maps, flew out of my hand into the air, and I tried to catch it, and something went out.  Hopefully it is not that bad.  So, today is a short blog entry. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Terry
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Terry

No it’s not yet. Gary said in blog there will comment and said There will be 3 or 4 more snow chances this winter still . Read about it in this blog.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I sure hope the Rain isn’t always 10 days away…

Is Winter over? I am kind of getting the impression based off models we are done with snow for the year now.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

No winter is not over and if you would read The comments Gary made with someone Gary said 3 or 4 more chances of snow this winter

Nick
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Nick

There has been alot of dryness, there is no doubt about that, and I can def. see it going down a very bad road very fast, but I’m hoping things turn around, but only time will tell.

Roger
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Roger

The wording from The Drought Monitor is pretty serious. They are definitely concerned.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

With only Arkansas and Montana wetter than average this month, most of the CONUS was drier than normal. Thirty-three states ranked in the driest third of the historical record for December, including twelve states in the top ten driest category. The twelve spanned the country from coast to coast and included California (second driest), Oregon (eighth driest), Nevada (ninth driest), Colorado and New Mexico (both seventh driest), Kansas (fourth driest), Iowa (fifth driest), Illinois (seventh driest), West Virginia (eighth driest), Virginia (fourth driest), and Delaware and Maryland (both fifth driest). More than a fourth (30.1 percent) of the country was… Read more »

Nick
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Nick

I too have hope that the “active” pattern with fronts and troughs will translate to wetter weather this spring and summer, that being said, I still don’t know we will still have to fight the pattern of having positively tilted troughs, add to the fact that the upperlevel energy becomes weaker in the warm season, if the fronts and systems turn wet, then we could end up being fine for sure, but if they stay drier, then the wind will help to expedite the drying, then again a few nights ago sitting outside on my break and looking at the… Read more »

Troy Newman
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Troy Newman

It looks like its going to be wet somewhere. Probably depends upon how far West the Trough ends up. I saw some mention of 2013 above. I looked it up and we had only 7″ of snow up here by the end of January. We ended with 35” I think that is the year the Royals and Rays got snowed out at the beginning of May. Don’t know that it will be anything like that but its happened before at least.

Patrick Savage
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Patrick Savage

Hope it’s not freezing rain, could the pattern be changing to a wetter one in the next week?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Looks like the Euro has some heavy rain for KC and points South in about a week.

Richard
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Richard

Gary on air said 3-4 more chances fir snow until Spring is here.
Btw no mention of his arm. He looks fine

Kurt
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Kurt

I meant that it was Easter Sunday and the snowstorm was the Monday after Easter

Kurt
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Kurt

While everyone wants winter to be over, April 21st 1992, mother nature had something to say about a big send off for winter. That east Sunday was rainy and cool in the 40’s and 50’s. One the Monday after, woke up to wet snow that morning and off and on snow all day that intensified to a heavy wet snow that evening. Ended up with foot of snow on April 21st. Fortunately it never dropped below 30 and in two days I was hunting mushrooms, some that were flattened by the weight of the heave wet snow. My parents lived… Read more »

Mark
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Mark

Yeah, but was the ’91-’92 winter a complete dud like this winter has been?

Bobbie
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Bobbie

Winter is over. Maybe one or two legit snow chances imo

JoeK
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JoeK

Bobbie,

Not according to the LRC. Watch the cycle where we begin to transition from Winter to Spring. We are likely going to have a few cold fronts strong enough coupled with more available Gulf moisture, that produce some stronger systems. One concern I have is with the potential for ice with these types of set-ups. The 17 day stretch we experienced in October is a good indicator of what is possible in March. Just my 2 cents

Patrick Savage
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Patrick Savage

nws pleasant hill has been hinting at some winter activity in the next 7 days.

I also agree with the poster who mentioned a cooler summer this year, I also think we could see some flooding issues in the area this late spring/early summer.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

It does appear that the trough thats been over the Middle of the US most of Feb is going to move back to the West. If this is correct we should see a SW flow and some decent storms come out. Of course we still need to get lucky and get one to track where we need it. We haven’t had much luck so far with this LRC but at least we might get missed from a different direction for a while.

Craig
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Craig

The latest GFS has a nice snowstorm nine days from now.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. As if!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LoL!!!! WOO HOO!!!!

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

OUCH…that sucks, hang in there Gary.

Still hoping for a big, wet snow March…lol!!!

terry
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terry

Gary Are we still expected 2nd half of February to be cold ? When does the beginning of the cycle start shouldn’t be soon? And any precipitation?

Ben
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Ben

The drought continues to grow in the western corn belt. Makes you wonder if it will continue in to spring and summer. Of course we had dry winters the last two years and decent rainfall in the next two seasons so I don’t think there is any correlation.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I think what some people on here are hopeful about is that we have had very little ridging overhead during this LRC. It has been mostly off to our West and quite a ways off to our West a lot of the time. I am not sure how this will play out in the summer. Right now I would think the SW High Plains and areas near there would have the biggest threat of drought but I suppose that is usually the case. I will be interested to see what Gary and his team come up with for a summer… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Where do we go from here? Well, we have a little over 1 month of winter left, I know, most will say that winter is over. I don’t think so, if the pattern is cycling like we think it is, the cold air will still be a big part of this pattern going through the rest of this month and into March. We will have big warm-ups also, but I don’t see a sustained warm-up like last Feb. Remember, we were 10-11 degrees above average last Feb. finished the last 15 days with many 60 and 70+ degree days. We… Read more »

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Great comments as always Mike!

MMike
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MMike

Hi Rick, Thanks so much! I hope all is well with you and maybe you play golf on Wednesday….the weather looks beautiful. I also want to make clear that I feel the idea behind the LRC is legit, the cycling pattern that is. I just feel that each cycle can produce different results based off the cold fronts, warm surges, ULL’s etc. and where they set up. I also feel that you can have bad luck. Our friend north of the city, Kurt, is a perfect example. He was 25-35 miles away from 40+ inches of rain in 2017. That’s… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Latest GFS has some players on the field through the next 16 days with cold air in play, so, let’s see if we can get a 2013 repeat snow lovers…remember that dream stretch after the 21st of Feb. that year. KC and surrounding areas saw 20-30 inches of snow by the end of March.

Let’s go down that road again! I think we were in a La Nina that year also, which favors late season snows.

It’s never over until it’s over. Right??

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

MMike, I agree. Been saying since early January that March could be our best chance at good snow.
Perhaps an answer to your question about how and what changed, increased dew points and humidity were present this go around.
Possibly?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I was getting eaten alive by Mosquitos last February while I was building deer blind in the creek bottoms. I hope that was a fluke, I can’t deal with mosquitos that early in the year. I was fishing and doing quite well last Februaury, I would take the fishing right now but it’s going to be a later start to fishing season with the cold spells we keep getting

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

The mesquitos in my neck of the woods here in mn are absolutely terrible! Fortunately its cold 11 months a yr!😂

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

And yet some people are still of the thought that cold kills bugs, WE WISH!
of that was the case MN would be mosquito and tick free, yet MN has Moose dropping dead from getting sucked dry from too many ticks. It’s a common fallacy among those that don’t spend Alot of time outdoors

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Hume,

Actually. if it were to stay sub-zero for an extended amount of time, it would impact the bugs ( in our region) as they adapt to their environment over time much like Minnesota. I spoke with an entomologist and discovered the only effective way to knock down the mosquito and tick population is to have dry and hot conditions as they need water and humidity to thrive. So a little drought once in awhile is probably a good thing. Droughts may be natures way of keeping insect populations under control?

Anonymous by choice
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Anonymous by choice

Talk to an entomologist with the MN DNR. They will tell you that the only way to kill the emarald ash borer (other than introducing another invasive insect species that could kill it) is excessively cold temperatures. They will also agree that the cold has very little effect, if any, on the mosquito population. Need hot and dry for that. Talk to local entomologists and they will tell you that our cold, dry winter will knock down the oak mite population substantially. Should also kill a lot of cicada larvae (grubs). This spring/summer will tell if that’s true. Mosquitos are… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

In Alaska they come out at the first wiff of “warm” temps. Ppl have to wear protective gear when out anywhere near forest/trees. Mosquito masks, etc. The long months of cold do nothing to the population. It is the State Bird ! 😄 So thick at times people can’t even enjoy being outside.

Ross
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Ross

I don’t remember it that bad when I lived in Sitka. Maybe it’s worse on the mainland.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

I think the wild card will be the weak La Nina. It should be neutral by late March. Gary called for a drought and multiple heat waves last year–he could have just been 1 year off the way it is setting up this year. I’m sure this extremely cold winter with multiple arctic outbreaks has no impact on summer, but I’d bet we break our 4 year streak of under 100 degrees and 3 inch snow, although next winter.

MMike
Guest
MMike

The first 12 days of FEB. could have been way more impressive for snow around eastern KS. and MO…we really missed everything by about 40-125 miles. Think about it and look back. We started with the surprise snow on Sunday Feb. 4th. (Yes, it was taken out by almost every forecast the night before) That was a 1-3 inch snow that wasn’t suppose to happen. Then, we were looking at that Tuesday Feb. 6th snow, the data over the previous weekend had a nice 1-4 inch snow for KC. Around hour 36-30 prior to the possible snow event, all data… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I agree with what you have said. In NW RP county I have 14″ for the year which is right at average for this time of year but 2/3 of that came last week. I am below normal on precip but that is mostly from the Oct 15-Dec20 period where almost nothing fell at all. Some NE locations are actually above normal on Snow. It seems anyplace South of here is really struggling to see much.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Real sorry about that Gary. Hope it’s not serious.
Is that the arm that had cancer ?

Ready for Spring.
Funny how Friday will be the lone cold day with warm on either side of it.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Hope you get better Gary. Thanks for all you and your staff do for this Blog and the weather! Happy Monday!
Michael

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

It snows in Chicago and Sault Ste Marie
It snows everywhere ‘cept for good ‘ol KC
Barely a dusting in south OP 123rd & BV Pkwy, hope we get some rain later this week.

Classy Cat
Guest
Classy Cat

Before this past weekend, Chicago was in a big snow drought as well. It’s not just here. Des Moines, Omaha……they’ve gotten a couple recently, but they were suffering from lack of snow (if you like snow) and precipitation in general as well. The pattern has sucked for quite a few folks.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Sick of this cold. Bring on spring and thunderstorms.

Miss Jess
Guest
Miss Jess

Feel better Gary! I saw you on air last night and it looked so painful! I hope it is nothing serious!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Saw you on the air last night Gary. Looked really painful. Hope you feel better.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Well I hope you are okay, as momma used to say, drink more water.

Gary it’s been another very disappointing winter regarding precipitation. I know the LRC indicates that a unique pattern sets up every year around mid-October, but there seems to be something else in play that is producing very similar winter results. What is your take on this? I know out here in central Kansas we haven’t had rain or snow in the last four years between Nov and Feb. I don’t know what mechanisms drive the monsoon seasons in the desert southwest but it seems similar out here.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

That stinks. Get that arm looked at and I hope you heal up quickly.