One band of snow around 7 AM

/One band of snow around 7 AM

One band of snow around 7 AM

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

I know it is not much, but it was snowing at 1 AM. There was a light dusting in some areas, but look at the last second on the second radar image:

Screen Shot 2018-02-11 at 12.57.13 AM

Screen Shot 2018-02-11 at 6.42.32 AM

After a week of tracking a chance of snow, we end up with this last image.  The freezing drizzle last night has happened many times before, but it was still shocking.  If all of that were snowflakes instead of liquid water it would have lessened the frustration. But, instead we had super cooled water droplets in an environment where the entire atmosphere was well below freezing.  Super cooled water droplets can stay in liquid form all the way down to nearly 40 degrees below zero, if the air is clean. We must have had really clean air last night.

Well, if you are up at 7 AM, you may see this last band of snow. Let us know.  Thank you for sharing in the Action Weather Blog Featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Now, let’s take a look at the week ahead as we get a break from the small winter systems and a sweet treat on Valentine’s day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The sun will come out in full force this afternoon, allowing highs to climb to around 30°.

2

MONDAY MORNING: It will be a frigid start with lows 5°-10°, but at least the wind will be 10 mph or less. Wind chill values will still be around -5°. The chance of re-freezing and black ice patches is there, but most of the ice and snow will evaporate this afternoon with sunshine.

3

MONDAY AFTERNOON: The wind will be coming from the east-northeast, so highs will be about where they are on Sunday, around 30°. It will be mostly sunny with more clouds northwest.

4

TUESDAY: Highs will reach 45°-50° as the wind becomes southerly along with thicker high clouds. Lows will be in the 20s as the Arctic air makes a quick retreat.

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VALENTINE’S DAY: We are in for a sweet treat as southwest winds take us to highs 55°-60°. Highs will reach the low 70s in southwest Kansas and 40° in Valentine, NE. Lows will be 35°-40° in our area.

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VALENTINE’S DAY EVENING: It looks like there will be lots of clouds with dewpoints in the 40s. So, if you are heading out during the evening, temperatures will drop slowly to 45°-50°.

7

Have a great week.

Gary and Jeff

2018-02-12T08:28:24+00:00February 11th, 2018|General|55 Comments

55 Comments

  1. REAL HUMEDUDE February 11, 2018 at 7:25 am - Reply

    I’m embarrassed for having followed this “storm”. Lol
    What can we do guys? It’s still a struggle in these parts, I’m looking forward to a warm up this week and the gradual return to Spring. I’ve got early flowers starting to pop so it can’t be too far off. Once the gulf opens up these dry systems will produce again, no worries

    • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

      34 days until St Patrick’s day. That’s usually when I try to plant potatoes and onion sets.

  2. Bsmike February 11, 2018 at 7:30 am - Reply

    Mother Nature is cruel.

  3. Bsmike February 11, 2018 at 7:33 am - Reply

    I guess this is our dusting , that band is trying to grow just to tease us.

  4. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    Will there be available moisture come spring and get us some decent rains? Will the fronts alone be enough to trigger rain? I hope this positive people are right about seasonal differences, but been through this last year so I’m skeptical that this turns around.

    There is more chemical and crap in the streets than what we had in snow last night. This winter is pathetic, not even 7 inches at my location the entire winter back to the first snow October 31st. My snowfall forecast of 6 to 11 might verify

    • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

      Kurt, that’s the $10,000 question. We’ve had more snow here but it’s still been weak moisture wise.

    • Lary Gezak February 11, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      100%. We do not have to worry about a drought during the Spring-Summer months around here. We will get plenty of rain.

      • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

        I certainly hope that you are right.

  5. Troy Newman February 11, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

    In RP county I had 3.5 inches last night which brings my total for the week to 8.5 inches and season total to 14. Nearly all the snow we have gotten has been about a 20:1 ratio this year so its like scooping chicken feathers. Its been really cold this week too with only one day above freezing day and that was only 36F and every morning but one in the single digits and 2 below zero. Seems strange to hear Hume mention flowers down there as here the ground, lakes, and river are all frozen solid. Quite a climate difference between here and there I guess. Apparently the dividing line between winter and not so much is somewhere between here and KC.

    I wonder what spring will look like rainfall wise? We sure have a lot of systems rolling through just not enough moisture to make much happen.

  6. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    The divining line for snow is about 10-15 miles to my north, just like the rainfall pattern was south last summer

  7. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Dividing line

  8. f00dl3 February 11, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    So now we are at about 0.675″ per snow event?

  9. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    I’ve had 20 events at an average of .65 per event lol

  10. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    Oops 10 events, wish it was 20 lol!

  11. Craig February 11, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Just want to congratulate Gary and Jeff for sticking to an LRC-based forecast this time when ALL of the models suggested 2-4” as late as Friday morning.
    The LRC consistently suggested that this “storm” would be a dud…just like all the rest…and by sticking with it, you got it (mostly) correct.
    Nice job!

    • Mr. Pete February 11, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

      NWS called for a dusting to no accumulation for my area.

    • Richard February 11, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      +1

  12. Lary Gezak February 11, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

    Give me maybe one big snowstorm (not likely at this point) and then I will be ready to move on.

    Winter is Mr. Gezak’s favorite season. Never have I been so ready for warmer weather and storms. That’s how disappointing this winter has been. “There’s always next year”…

  13. Heat MIser February 11, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    uggh…that freezing drizzle was nasty last night

    • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

      Heat, we lucked out here in terms of the ice–Nws said 1-3 inches and they were fairly close on that.

  14. Michel Casteel February 11, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

    Maryville picked up just under an inch overnight which makes for a 2 inch total for both storms with a liquid equivalent of .08 inches just got done cleaning up the snow down at work wishing it was 4 inches LOL have a blessed Sunday bloggers Michael

  15. Snow Miser February 11, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    This is getting pathetic. I’m ready for spring.

  16. Richard February 11, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

    According to wx2020’s 12 week forecast we will be off to the races with 40’s, 50’s, 60’s !
    Hip hip hooray !
    So no more chances of any snow storms.
    Maybe 😄

    • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

      Richard, my sentiments exactly….

  17. Rod February 11, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

    Still watching system coming out of the SW late this week, could be that twist we’re looking for. IMO still a few more opportunities in the current cycle to get an nice snow if things can just come together & I feel we get a nice March surprise snowstorm. We just have to get one just one please then I’m ready for severe weather season.

  18. David February 11, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

    Put a fork in it. Snow for this season is done, but it never really started. Funny how last Sunday’s surprise snow event may be the biggest event this winter season for KC.

  19. sedsinkc February 11, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    I measured 0.1 inches of snow in KC North, ha ha. At least it snowed enough to whiten the ground this time, unlike the one that totally missed us last week.

  20. Kurt February 11, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    When will St Joseph get 1 inch or more of liquid equivalent in a storm, heck when will we get more than 1/2 inch liquid equivalent. If not for the one wet system in January we’d really be hurting.

    I think there needs to be a contest to guess the first actual widespread rainstorm this spring. For we try to guess on a 3 plus inch snowstorm that could be years away at this rate.

    I am ready for wet rainy weather

  21. Bill in Lawrence February 11, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    Gary and Jeff:
    Happy Sunday to both of you!!

    I wound up with a bit of freezing drizzle and less than a skiff of snow so I am here with the clown suit on and eating my crow. I argued as late as Friday night that I had less than a 10% chance of getting just flakes to a dusting and felt very confident of at least an inch; that is a crow eating forecast!!!
    Oh well…I still had a great week of winter weather. 6 out of the last 8 days were below freezing; had 3 mornings in the single digits to below 0; 3 possible snows to track; managed to hit on one of them so had a little over 2 inches of snow for the week; Clinton Lake is back to having about 15% of the main body fully iced over and all the lakes, ponds and creeks are fully iced and ponds and lakes close to skateable again (the creeks have yet to lose their ice since mid-December) so while I missed on the snow and even blew both forecasts, I still had a better 8 days of winter than all of last winter. As a winter weather lover, I’ll take it!!!

    Regarding the forecast if I had paid closer attention to the track of the vort I should have known the moisture feed was going to be an issue and the NAM picked up on that from the very beginning…I just did not pay enough attention. I also admittedly for quite some time bought into the consistency of the GFS as we had not seen that for any event all winter and combine that with my firm belief that a storm can indeed have a “twist” I clung to that idea far too long even though other models showed issues. On Christmas Eve I picked up about an inch from this wave and still thought that would occur even though the 12Z yesterday had me with a skiff at best. Honestly, for me, there was a bit of a twist but in the negative direction…the wave was a bit weaker and bit further north than in cycle 2 which left me with just the skiff…I don’t think I had enough drizzle to have brought me to the inch. Whatever the case, sticking fully with the LRC was such the right call and as other have said kudos to Gary and Jeff for not wavering. I’ll fully admit here that I am probably too much convinced of the idea of a twist that it can get me in trouble but that is on me. Live and learn with probably more living than learning LOL!!!!

    On a different note, I would not sing the demise of winter quite yet. Yes we are getting closer to spring and winter is beginning to slowly loosen its grip; the cold fronts won’t be quite as strong or so much arctic; the cold periods won’t last for 6-8 day stretches; the warm periods will be warmer; the return flow will be stronger…indeed, spring is beginning to slowly take winters place as the driver and if this were last year, then yes, spring would be here now. However, we still have at least 3 strong/arctic type fronts to go through before March 1st and 2-3 waves that will produce some type of precipitation with that cold. The GFS this morning still has Friday in the 20’s and next Tuesday not getting above freezing for the high either. I would not even be surprised if that cold is actually a bit underdone. Then this entire colder phase will come back around mid to late March which for somewhere in the plains will produce a wintery set up. How much snow…obviously the safe bet is not more than 1- 2 inches considering all the set ups this winter and the fact that timing of cold air will be a true issue as we progress towards March but to say that we are done with cold and snow I think is a bit premature. I will go out on a limb here and say I will see another 2-4 inches of snow before April 1st (with a 30% chance of 3-5) and after tomorrow morning will still have 1-2 mornings in the single digits. That may all come in one event or spread out over 2-3 events, but I am convinced that I will run in a snow pack again before April 1st.

    Whatever the case, and as frustrated as I was yesterday morning, I would still argue that this has been a much much better winter than last winter if you are like me part of the 2% of the population that likes winter. Several nights in the single digits; 4 nights below 0; around 20 days where it did not get above freezing for the high; ice skating; Clinton Lake skateable off the dam; lakes frozen for close to 6 weeks; snow that actually stayed more than 4 days; would have loved more snow and mositure to this date but compared to last winter….take this every day and twice on Sundays.

    It will be interesting to see how cycle 3 finishes out and cycle 4 begins. It is indeed close to time to begin to analyze/think about what this pattern will do in spring and summer seasons, but I am still not ready to give up on the winter version and think there is enough evidence in the LRC to not do so.

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Rod February 11, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

      Bill, Great write up & analysis. Looking back I had some precipitation in the Dec 29th – 30th of Dec even though it was light qpf of under 0.10”. With the cycle length in the 45-47 day area it fits to have another system come through this coming Thursday into Friday time frame. I also had a very significant event picking up 0.84” liquid equivalent on Jan 7 recorded the morning of January 8th, with 45-47 day cycle that would be due in about week after this Thursday/Friday event around Feb 23-25th timeframe. I had another event a week later in January picking up 0.14” so this would be due in around March 2-4th. Finally a big rainfall event occurred at my location just south of Columbia on Jan 21-23rd picking up 1.49” which based on cycling pattern would come back through around March 10-12th. This could be major winter storm for someone in the middle of the nation so this IMO gives three more possible chances at a significant winter event. I agree with you the chances of it being 1-3” is much greater than 3”+ event but argue the last event in mid March that gave me an inch & a half of qpf could bring us parts of KS and/or MO a late season March miracle. Unlike yourself I have not given up hope on winter just yet but the clock is ticking & opportunities are becoming less & less. I did not pick up any snow in Ashland, MO last night & ended up with 0.13” of liquid & just over 1/10 of an inch of ice from freezing drizzle/ rain. Therefore I still sit at 2.60” of snow for the season at my location just south of the Columbia Regional Airport. Have a great day Bill & I hope we both see some more snow & hopefully not just the dusting to 1” variety.

      Rod, Ashland, MO

      • Richard February 11, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

        Sometimes there is a world of difference between Lawrence KS and Columbia MO.
        Seems like storms intensify more often after they head east from KC. (Columbia)

        • Rod February 11, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

          Richard, yes and no Gary was shocked the other day when I told him Columbia hasn’t even picked up 3 inches of snow. Yes some of the events that occurred when the cycling pattern length was being determined back in October and November produced more precipitation then Kansas City & Lawrence for example but so far when they have cycle back through they have not produced anymore in Columbia then they have it points further west. Now that could change with the next three or four systems that are due to cycle back through but as of today that has not occurred yet. So my frustration continues. Have a great evening!!

      • Bill in Lawrence February 11, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

        Rod:

        Happy Sunday!!! Thanks so very much for the kind words!!!

        I had a relative live in Ashland years ago and used to ride the Katy Trail quite a bit…that is a beautiful area down there!!!!

        Like you I am not ready to give up on winter just yet. Granted the chances of a 3 plus inch are low due to the LRC and also due it getting later in the year, I still will respectfully argue we have 3 or 4 waves upcoming with cold air lurking that give us a 30% chance of a “twist”; 30% may be a bit over the top but what the hey…I’m just a history teacher LOL!!!! One wave gave me a day off of school, one 3 inches of snow and the other thunderstorms with snow on the backside. So there is some energy coming that can maybe pull a surprise. Likely know but still a shot. One thing I am confident is that the cold will continue maybe not December cold but it will make its presence felt.

        Richard’s comment below got me thinking…I remember in 1994 where Lawrence did not receive a flake but your area hit 20 inches from an upper level low. To flip that, the Christmas Eve Blizzard missed Columbia for the most part as the surface low tracked just NW of Columbia. . There is no doubt on most occasions the weather between Lawrence and Ashland can be so much different. So interesting!!

        Have a great Sunday evening!!!

        Bill in Lawrence

        • Rod February 11, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

          Bill, I remember the blizzard that did hit here groundhog day 2011 I was living in Ashland and we have picked up over 20 inches of snow from that storm. Also if I remember right that was the winter that we picked up over 50 inches of snow at the airport in Columbia. We had snow piled so high that it was dangerous navigating out of my subdivision as there were many blindspots going around corners, People couldn’t see over the snow mounds when backing out of their driveways either. There were times when you would meet a car & somebody would have to back up or pull in somebody’s driveway because there was so much snow there nowhere to put it. I hope I see another winter like that in my lifetime and with myself being in my lower 40s I give that a pretty good chance. Have a great night thanks for your response looking forward to these next three or four waves coming through between now and the middle of March.

  22. David February 11, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

    We got 1.2″ here in Kirksville.

  23. Nick February 11, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    Here we go again…. GFS has another dusting storm for Thursday night 😛 😛

  24. Richard February 11, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Referring to the 7 day colored graphic that the wx team shows on the air, which is not computer generated.
    It used to be on the kshb weather page also. But no more. Why ?
    The only one there is the computer generated one.

  25. Richard February 11, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

    Miss seeing Rockdoc and MMike on here.

  26. Richard in Olathe February 11, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

    Test

  27. Richard in Olathe February 11, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Would be nice to have everyone put their area next to their name. I just tested and it works

  28. Troy Newman February 11, 2018 at 3:12 pm - Reply

    Interesting to see Chicago ties a record with 9 consecutive days with accumulating snow. I don’t think they had much before this event.

    • f00dl3 February 12, 2018 at 6:45 am - Reply

      What’s interesting is March may be interesting as the last push of Arctic air may not penetrate enough to shunt our moisture south. That being said, I wouldn’t gamble based upon it.

  29. Plaza John February 11, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

    I’m ready for spring….

  30. Richard in Olathe February 11, 2018 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    JL has a very informative blog today about why we got the frzzing drizzle.
    And a national map that tells how many days it has been since the last winter storm warning.
    Surprised me to see when the last time KC had one. (No, not 4 yrs ago)

  31. Nick February 11, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    I believe that it was last year when the NWS went out on a limb because of the Euro model and gave out WSW/ISW for the minor ice event we ended up getting.

    • Richard in Olathe February 11, 2018 at 7:02 pm - Reply

      “776 days ago was 12/28/15…and on that day with a Winter Storm Warning issued…we had…wait for it…2.3″ of snow. We can’t win for losing around these parts.”

  32. Stl78 February 11, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

    Finally back in Minnesota. What a long wknd between driving through the snowstorm on thur night to driving through the frzin rain/sleet this morning. Caught a couple fish and spent quality time with my wife and sitting in front of the fire now catching up with the kids.

    • Richard in Olathe February 11, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      Good you made it safe and sound.
      Thx for letting us know Stl !.

    • Bluetooth February 11, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

      Glad that you made it safely.

      • Stl78 February 11, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

        Ty bt!

  33. Stl78 February 11, 2018 at 7:10 pm - Reply

    Appeciate the concern richard!

  34. Phillip in Grain Valley February 11, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

    Didn’t get much aside from freezing mist all night last night… roads were treated and didn’t have any problems getting out and about today. Wouldn’t mind for winter to be over in all honesty. Tired of cold weather and nothing to show for it in terms of precip. 40’s and rain the rest of winter into spring would be fine by me.

  35. Mr. Pete February 11, 2018 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    Gary are you ok? Just saw you in pain on the air…

    • Heat MIser February 11, 2018 at 11:28 pm - Reply

      really????

  36. misel February 14, 2018 at 1:25 pm - Reply

    CIPS analogs (looking back at previous events and comparing then to the current state of the atmosphere) is showing a signal for freezing rain. These colors represent the probability of freezing rain lasting six or more hours.   The general idea is that the CIPS analogs are picking up a signal for freezing rain.

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