100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

/100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

Good morning,

Today, a Winter Storm is moving through the lower Great Lakes. There are many flight cancellations as Chicago is getting hit and it extends to Detroit.  This storm will zip by, and then there is another one, this weekend, forming farther to the southwest.  Would you be shocked if this weekends storm ended up producing almost exactly what the Christmas Eve storm produced?  The LRC has been used, in recent years, to help make accurate forecasts for specific events from the weather for the likely conditions at the Super Bowl played outside in East Rutherford, NJ, four years ago to even more specific examples such as getting the forecast down to a complex of thunderstorms producing potential severe weather.   Let’s take a look.

This is the radar image from Christmas Eve. The latest data continues to trend into the direction of something like this happening Saturday night and early Sunday morning once again, exactly one cycle later, 47 to 48 days after Christmas, which was also on a Saturday night-Sunday morning. It may even be close to the same timing, but of course there will be some differences and we will discuss below.

Kansas City Weather Timeline: I will finish the timeline by 8 AM.

  • Today:  A cold front will move through this morning. It was 40 degrees at 5 AM, and it will drop into the upper 20s or near 30 later this morning with increasing north winds. It will likely stay dry today.
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries. There is a chance of some more organized light snow over northern Missouri.  Low:  10°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a few flurries.  High:  19°
  • Saturday Night: Snow likely, possibly briefly heavy. The best chance of snow is from 10 PM to 6 AM. Low:  8°
  • Sunday:  Snow ending and becoming sunny. Total Snow Accumulations: A dusting to 2″ expected.

I went for a 100% chance of snow Saturday night.  Before I did update this forecast, I found this graphic that I wanted to use to show the chance of snow this weekend.  And, look:

1

This forecast above was from 47 days ago. Remember, we are in a 44 -51 day cycle, centered on around 47-48 days.  As Gary England said to me around ten year ago, “Lezak, I saw it. I saw the LRC. It’s the same, but different”. This is when there was a major snowstorm potentially going to hit Oklahoma City around ten years ago.  I had explained to Gary England that OKC would get hit and all he had to do is look at the previous cycle of the pattern. He saw a glimpse of the cycling pattern.  So, here we are; the same, but different. We are in the same part of the pattern that produced snow on Christmas Eve, and here is the graphic I updated for this weekend. It even is falling on the same day of the week with a similar timing:

2

117Jeff Penner was at work that Sunday morning, and he will be at work again this Sunday morning. He better not only be measuring 0.8″ of snow. That is what he measured 47 days ago.  And, the snowflake contest did not end. 1.1″ of snow fell at KCI Airport, and 1.4″ was recorded in Overland Park, KS. In fact, there was a minimum of under an inch right near the Plaza where Jeff measured the lowest total in the city that day.  Remember, it is the same but different, as Gary England pointed out years ago.  So, can’t the “difference” this time work in our favor?  Kansas City continues its streak of under 3″ of snow on any calendar day. The streak is now over 4 years long.  And, the chance that it continues is still rather high.  This means that our forecast of a dusting to 2″ is the most likely scenario.  We will continue monitoring this set up for any adjustments and changes, but right now there are still models that have lower totals. The European model came in just after midnight and it did end up modeling 1-2 inches, but most of its snow was on Sunday morning.

This next map shows one solution for Saturday night around 11 PM, and then for Sunday morning as the system falls apart.

3

4

The set up is there for a lot more snow. If you look at the 850 mb flow, all we need is a slightly stronger solution, a slightly stronger storm dropping into the Rocky Mountains, and then we will be able to up the totals. But, any weaker, and then just a dusting will be the most likely solution.

2

This is a strong baroclinic zone, frontal zone around 5,000 feet up. The 0°C line extends from Hobart, OK northeast to Chanute, KS, and then northeast to Indianapolis, IN. There is a 25°C contrast from -15 to +10 degrees Celsius. If there is any decent wave aloft that could trigger just some lifting, then this could turn into a big snowstorm.  We are monitoring closely, but from what we have experienced this season, it most likely will not come together. If there is any indication that it will, then you know I will jump all over it. This is just set up to blast someone, but there needs to be a trigger.

The Cycling Pattern:

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 12.28.17 AM

Here is more of “the same, but different. The Christmas week part of the pattern is cycling through right now. As we tweeted out a couple of weeks ago, this is right on schedule. Other meteorologists suggested that this was returning. It isn’t just returning, but it has returned, cycled back through, and the pattern is cycling regularly. It will return again in late March. We will find out what the spring version of this pattern will bring. Could there be a Major Winter Storm just as spring begins? The answer is likely yes, but will it be Chicago, Des Moines and Omaha, or KC that gets targeted? This is the big question.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the weather blog by clicking on the blog at Weather2020.com.  This conversation will be a good one today. Let’s track in this chance of snow.

Gary

2018-02-10T22:42:44+00:00 February 9th, 2018|General|271 Comments

271 Comments

  1. Freezemiser February 9, 2018 at 4:15 am - Reply

    I am winter. I am snow. I will be the “trigger.”

    Let’s have a big old snow for old times sake!

  2. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 4:58 am - Reply

    If this snow does not give us an inch there is a real possibility the snowflake contest may not end this year. Has this ever happened?

    • Phillip February 9, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

      Wooooooow poodle… not keeping up with the blog regularly?

    • Richard February 9, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

      What ? It already ended

  3. Patti February 9, 2018 at 5:03 am - Reply

    The snowflake contest ended back in January.

    • ClassyCat February 9, 2018 at 6:03 am - Reply

      Lol

    • Roger February 9, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

      Not for Wichita or Amarillo yet

  4. Waldo Weather February 9, 2018 at 5:55 am - Reply

    “If there is any decent wave aloft that could trigger just some lifting, then this could turn into a big snowstorm.”

    At what point would this trigger need to happen, also what time is that model picture from? Thanks

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 6:22 am - Reply

      It is highly unlikely to happen! This pattern has just not been able to do it, but it doesn’t mean it will not, and this is why we have to pay close attention. I just finished the blog by adding in a radar image that I posted in the Christmas Eve blog, another night I had gotten very little sleep. That was actually an exciting night, but most of the snow came real fast. The same thing is most likely again this Sunday morning coming up.

  5. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 6:23 am - Reply

    Ever since I’ve been biking year round (~ last 4 years), we have not got many substantial snows.

    I am not driving as much, and because of that global warming is not increasing as fast. The lack of CO2 from my Mazda gives the atmosphere a lower set point temperature, and colder air holds less moisture.

    Sorry guys, I guess it’s my fault.

    • Phillip February 9, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

      And you win dumbest comment for today 👏🏼 Congrats sir

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

        It was a joke, ever heard of humor?

        • Phillip February 9, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

          No 💩? Wasn’t very funny to me, obviously.

          • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

            It was a joke dude.

    • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

      My cousin had a neighbor that wanted to save the planet so he refused to use a gas powered mower and used an old fashioned push reel. Then he commuted 40 miles to work???

  6. Lary Gezak February 9, 2018 at 6:56 am - Reply

    Morning model trends:

    GFS: 2-3″

    EURO: 1-2″

    CMC: 2-4″

    NAM: 1-2″

    • Joe February 9, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

      Dusting

  7. Clint February 9, 2018 at 7:10 am - Reply

    Gary, I live in the Warrensburg area and a few of the models including the NAM show some mixed precip tomorrow in the area. Do you believe freezing drizzle is a likely for my area?

  8. Terry February 9, 2018 at 7:25 am - Reply

    I say 2 to 3 maybe 3 + inches I hope I don’t miss my forecast.

  9. LYITC41 February 9, 2018 at 7:28 am - Reply

    Slight chc -FZDZ starting around 1800 this evening on and off all night till about 0700 tomorrow. This from NWS point fcst for Warrensburg.

  10. John February 9, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Gary – if some lifting is triggered, how much snow would we be talking potentially?

  11. Snowflake February 9, 2018 at 7:58 am - Reply

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say higher than Gary’s totals. He has a dusting to 2″.

    I’m going to go with 1-3″

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

      I would love to go up on my totals. The latest NAM has that 1 – 3 inches. And, there is a nice band that forms north of KC that is near 5″. Let’s see how the other models come in. The good thing about this storm, is that we can use the LRC and confidently say that a dusting to 2″ is the low end, most realistic forecast. On Christmas Eve it would have been another inch or so if it wouldn’t have just suddenly stopped. So, one or two extra hours in a band of snow would up the totals.

      Gary

      • Bill February 9, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

        Question: Did the LRC accurately predict last Sunday’s blizzard and the lack of snow on Tuesday? For some reason I just remember posts whenever the forecast matches with the previous forecasts.

  12. Anonymous February 9, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

    I’m going with a dusting to 12 inches.

    • Fred February 9, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      This may be my favorite comment of the day.

      You will never be wrong if you predict a dusting to 12 inches! LOL!

  13. Stl78 February 9, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    32 feels alot better than the 3 degrees back home! Drive down was terrible with snow packed roads and whiteout conditions. Its was clear once we hit just north of des moines ans the temp quickly climbed from 15 into the 40s within a short distance. Hope drive back sun is less stressful!

    • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      That light fluffy snow really makes visibility bad if there is semi traffic near you. I have to go to MN next Friday so hopefully it will be clear.

  14. Stl78 February 9, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    Clint, recognize the lake in my pic😀

    • Clint February 9, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

      Truman lake. What part of the lake do you fish?

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

        I won a small Bass tournament fishing Crawfish hallow, just up the lake aways from Truman park. It was early May and the Crappie fishermen were all over the place in that cove, seemed like they weren’t catching much but they were watching a show my partner and I put on with the bass right in front of them catching them left and right. I caught a 5.5, and two heavy 4 pounders ( 3 fish limit ), and we won by a few ounces vs 18 other boats. That’s my Al Bundy I scored 4 Tds in a single game story, my moment of Glory lol

        • Clint February 9, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

          A win is a win! We fish Bucksaw and Berry Bend most of the time.

        • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

          That’s quite an impressive haul. Especially from a Lake with a lot of fishing pressure and not some private pond.

  15. Stl78 February 9, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    Test

  16. Clint February 9, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    What do you guys think of the 12z NAM? Much more organized IMO.

    • Craig February 9, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

      Yep. That’s the first time it has given us 3”.

    • Bill in Lawrence February 9, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

      Clint and Craig:

      Happy Friday!!

      I totally agree…looking at the heights at the 500, 700, and 850 they are much lower than what the 0Z was showing. The main issue with the NAM is that it just does not bring in the moisture at the 850 and 700 levels that the GFS has been showing and it has been as consistent as not showing it as the GFS has been consistent showing it.

      Will be interesting to see what the GFS shows. I think our chances of getting 4 plus inches is at 10% or less but with this NAM run I would respectfully argue that our chances of 3 inch snow have gone up a bit.

      I realize this is not the best winter pattern yet here we are discussing our third possible snow event in less than 7 days…it has been a few years since that has occurred. Small steps!!! LOL

      Have a great Friday!!

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

      • Clint February 9, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

        I agree with what your seeing, if the 12z runs of the GFS and CMC remain consistent I would look for the NAM to trend up and be more widespread.

  17. Urbanity February 9, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

    A dusting to 2″ across all of Kansas, hmmm…, bring on the spring.

    It looks like next week Amarillo will break their hardcore dryness for a day, the energy coming out of the Baja area looks to bring a decent chance at something more than a .25 inch to parts of Texas, they are on the northern fringe however. NOAA shows drought continuing west of I-35 from KS to Texas, no surprise.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

      Couple runs have brought that same SW system all the way up into our neck of the woods with a very strong storm. One run was a strong winter storm, the other run was a big rain for the KC metro and points South and east with decent rains well into KS. I am still thinking its a possibility as we will be ever closer to March where I expect some big changes to manifest in our systems locally.Still more than a week away

      • Rod February 9, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

        Real Humedude: I like this one, really blasts OK & TX panhandles, maybe we get lucky late next week:

        http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020912&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=

        • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

          12z back to major winter storm for our region, I like the trends for late next week. Even if its rain, we need some decent precip to fall for once.

          • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

            The NAO is looking to move into the negative territory in the last half of Feb which should help get some of these systems to dig in a bit.

            • Urbanity February 9, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

              They can’t predict the NAO or AO as we have seen, it never goes as negative as predicted, and half the time it goes the opposite way. I wish they had a forecasted trend compared to actual for the past year, one would see the forecasted trend was not even close. I read something about the NOAA’s knowledge of the mechanisms behind the oscillations were sketchy at best.

  18. Three7s February 9, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    I’m thinking 2-3 inches on this one.

  19. Terry February 9, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply
  20. Richard February 9, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Gary
    Since this one is the Christmas Eve snow, what December dates line up with last Sundays snow, and Tuesdays snow that bareky missed us.
    Were there systems in Dec to line up with these 2 ?

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      We had four systems that produced very light precipitation in this part of the pattern, from the 17th of December to he 26th. Chicago also had four systems with light precipitation during this stretch. And, we again have had these small systems return. The strongest one was around Christmas Eve.

      Gary

      • Clint February 9, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

        This cycle Chicago is getting hammered!

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

        Thanks Gary
        So, even though the one last Sunday produced 2 inches, the same one in Dec went by barely noticed.
        Incredible

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

        I had 2-3 precip events in Vernon Co. in November that missed KC completely. There were a lot of small features that went by dry this winter, that’s going to change once the gulf opens up. They will multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms come April/May/June if we are lucky.

        • Anonymous February 9, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

          Hume
          I think you are a lot on. I have been thinking that for a while myself but time will tell

      • Heavysnow February 9, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

        I received 4.5 inches from 2 of those systems before Christmas in Ballwin……looks like we are getting nothing this time around.

      • Urbanity February 9, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

        Gary, does that mean the forecasted Baja storm is fraudulent? Was there anything in the LRC to hint at a possible SW storm moving into the southern plains about 8-9 days after Christmas?

  21. Terry February 9, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

    The Nam 12 z shows 2 to 3 inches kc Area

    The Gfs 6z shows 2 to 3 inches kc Area

    The Canadian model looks like a 2 to 4 inches KC Area 2 on south side to 4 on north side KC Area.

  22. Richard February 9, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    Gary
    Since this one is the Christmas Eve snow, what December dates line up with last Sundays snow, and Tuesdays snow that bareky missed us.
    Were there systems in Dec to line up with these 2 ?

  23. Clint February 9, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    The storms in this cycle seem to be producing better than in Dec we just haven’t been hit yet. I think it’s reasonable to believe this time around will produce more than the Dec version.

    • Three7s February 9, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      I think 3 inches is doable, but I doubt we break “the streak”.

      • Clint February 9, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

        I think it will be close for some, but ya 3 seems more likely than it did yesterday.

  24. weatherjaded February 9, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Gary,

    I know you said the LRC is between 45 and 51 days. But you keep referring to this particular event happening 47-48 days since Christmas Eve. Wouldn’t that make it actually 50 days since the Christmas Eve snow? Either from Saturday night 12/23 to Saturday 2/10 or Sunday 12/24 to Sunday 2/11?

    • Richard February 9, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

      Dec 24 – Feb 10 is 48 days

      • weatherjaded February 9, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

        Thats cherry picking time and dates. He made a point to say it was coming in on the same day of the week at the same time. By definition that is 7 weeks plus 1 day. If we are to say those two events are related then you go from Start to start. Not from finish to start.

        • Snowflake February 9, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

          There’s a 7-day swing of leeway (44-51 days) built into the theory, so it will always fit.

          • Anonymous by choice February 9, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

            +1 X 100

          • Richard February 9, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

            Or, could be there is no storm at all. But there is ! It fits !

  25. Michael Casteel February 9, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Awesome Sauce! The biggest recording I have was from X-mas Eve. I recorded 5 1/2″ that morning in Maryville. Hope for more of the same!
    Michael

  26. Richard February 9, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Family friend is a flight line manager for Delta at O’Hare. He lives 30 min west of O’Hare.
    Anyway he posted pics of his drive to work at 4 am this morning. Cars were already stuck on side roads in his neighborhood (he drives a 4×4). And pics of the big guns…huge plows clearing the runways. A lot of snow.
    Those pics reminded me of the movie Airport with George Kennedy chomping away on his stogie 😄 That was the best part of that movie.

  27. Ben February 9, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Gary the last cycle brought in a massive arctic blast with temps below freezing for over two weeks but the 15 day forecast is showing temps in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s. What’s the difference this time around? Thanks

    • Jim February 9, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

      Bet my house he doesn’t respond to this one. Takers?

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

      Have you seen the latest GFS? There is an Arctic front coming through within seven days, and today there is one. The same pattern will cycle back through in March, May, and July. There may be a late Arctic front, or a cold blast in the March version, but I can guarantee you that the “same pattern” will not produce an Arctic front.

      And, remember when the snowflake contest ended? January 8th I believe, that storm is also showing up on today’s GFS.

      Any other questions?

      Gary

      • Snowflake February 9, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

        Which storm (date) in the GFS is paired to that January 8th event?

      • Val February 9, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

        +1

  28. Morgan February 9, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    The GFS is even weaker than its last run.

  29. Craig February 9, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    12Z GFS sticking with 2-4″
    That seems to be the general consensus and since we’re only 30-36 hours out, it sounds like the most reasonable forecast.

    • Clint February 9, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

      I agree with you, not the largest system in the world but better than what we have had the last few years.

  30. Bsmike February 9, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

    And yet like I said yesterday the models can predict places like Chicago for 12 inches but here it dwindles down to crap 💩

  31. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    NAM with Kuchera actually shows 4.4″ for KC. I’m skeptic of it because it shows that 4.4″ falling in a slow moving 60 mile band of snow. What is interesting is the GFS actually now looks similar and shows 4.9″ for KC using Kuchera. 00z Canadian looks somewhat a similar solution as well. NAM 3km not on the heavy snow wagon yet so that does raise concern – the 3km NAM handles this one best probably at the 18z run today.

    Gives hope. Not saying I totally believe it yet. But there is agreement and the intensity now is starting to come into par in all the models.

    • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

      What is the difference between the NAM 3km and the NAM? I know the 3k is high resolution but is that supposed to make it more accurate? Sometimes it has precip placement quite a bit different than the NAM.

  32. Bill in Lawrence February 9, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    Happy Friday everyone!!

    Take this with a grain of salt as I am just a hobbyist on a good day…

    The 12Z GFS looks to me much less organized in the upper levels than the 12Z NAM….it seems to me that the GFS is actually beginning to trend away from what it was showing yesterday. Even the moisture feed at the 700 and 850 level is not nearly as robust as on previous runs. Granted it is still more than the NAM but compared to past runs on the GFS it is just not as strong. Also, looking at the moisture at the 700 level, by 12Z Sunday it is pretty much a done deal.

    I will stick with 1-2 inches but to me the 12Z GFS was not what I hoped to see. Still, we are discussing a possible third snow event in 7 days…I’ll take that when compared to the past few years!!! Yes…I’m easy to please right now!!! LOL

    Just my humble thoughts..

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • weatherjaded February 9, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

      Bill you have so many “grains of salt” with your blog entries you should have the roads taken care of in your “little neck of woods” this weekend.

      • Shawn in Lawrence February 9, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

        Still, Bill gives great breakdowns and analysis and his weather enthusiasm is contagious.

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

        +1

  33. Michael Casteel February 9, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    I just checked my December recordings and found this kinda cool. So on December 18th-.20″ rain, December 22nd-.06″ rain, and December 24th-51/2″ of snow, with temperatures crashing the next three days! Fast forward 47 days later, February 4th-Skiff of snow, February 6th-1/2″ of snow, February 7th-21/2″ of snow, February 10th-11th???????? We’ll wait and see! Temps should crash too.
    Michaeal

  34. Clint February 9, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Did you guys see the cut-off low off the California coast isn’t that the system that brought snow to the deep south in the last cycle.

    • f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      Yup. I would expect Atlanta or areas near by to get 3-6″ of snow next week.

      • Clint February 9, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply

        I thought so I worry that since the Artic air is not as strong now as it was in the last cycle that ice is a real possibility here. What are your thoughts it should be interesting to follow

  35. choppy February 9, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

    Not a fan of snow even though I make a killin off it but this feels like it’s gonna be our biggest snow in a few years

  36. Morgan February 9, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Canadian coming in with an inch.

    • choppy February 9, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      The ol’ angry inch

    • Clint February 9, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

      Not Good

    • Terry February 9, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

      The Canadian model shows the storm a little too far North

      • Terry February 9, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

        You guys crack me up. l

  37. Matt Maisch February 9, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    While the NAM has trended a bit more organized this morning, the GFS and Canadian are certainly doing just the opposite. The GFS has shown a reduced output on at least 3 successive runs now. What’s new though, more of the same.. It has literally reached a point where, in order to create an accurate snowfall forecast for KC, all you have to do is look at the output from the least aggressive model on every single system and go with it. In that case, you seemingly can’t go wrong. So it looks like the big winner this time will be the Euro! Congrats!! SMH.

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

      This is why we have our dusting to 2″ forecast. It is our forecast for a reason. It is what I believe will happen. Could there be a twist? Sure.

      Gary

      • Matt Maisch February 9, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

        Don’t blame you one bit Gary. Seems like the right call. Sure has been a while since we had a nice snow around here. They will return, no doubt, but man, Mother Nature refuses to throw us a bone these days. It’s almost as if she has been collaborating with the NFL Playoff gods, lol.

      • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

        I would say however that your confidence in a snow event is pretty low if you think a dusting is still possible. That part surprises me.

      • Matt February 9, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

        Gary is sticking with the LRC and ignoring the models. Props to him. He has been unwavering for this weekend.

        • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

          Including a dusting as part of the forecast tells me that Gary thinks getting basically nothing again is a real possibility…amazing

  38. LYITC41 February 9, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

    The proverbial “twist”. Oh lord, not that!

    • Snowflake February 9, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

      It’s the “get out of jail free” card, or the “joker” card.

      • Anonymous by choice February 9, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

        +1 X 100 again snowflake.

  39. Terry February 9, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

    The Nam 12z still show like 2 to 3 inches KC

    The GFS 12z still show like 2 to 3 inches Kc

  40. Fred February 9, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

    I am going to bet that the NAM is more accurate with this ‘storm’ than the GFS, Euro, or Canadian. It handled the previous storm better than the other models and was more accurate up to the start of the event. The GFS hasn’t been very accurate all winter long…how many times has it depicted storm systems in KC that never came to fruition? I mean, the running joke is that the storm is 10 days away, since the GFS tells us so.

    I think the most interesting thing is the fact that we are less than 24 hours away from the event beginning and we don’t have true handle on what the storm may or may not do. It may have a ‘twist’ or it may not. It may dig further, it may not.

    Glad I am not a weather forecaster and I just follow the weather as a hobby.

  41. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

    I think we do have a true handle at what the event will do. Gary has already stated. Dusting to 2″. I think it’s probably going to be in that range too. Models are coming in upon agreement to a solution and while QPF is a bit overdone still the just of the track is pretty good. GFS finally giving up on the whopper and Kuchera methods show similar snowfall to the NAM and Canadian.

    NAM depicts a 60 mile wide snow band moving through the area. Giving the LRC the band will probably move through in 2-3 hours time due to the cold air plunging down faster than models depict. So, most likely scenario is 1/2″ to 1″ with isolated spots seeing up to 2″ of snow in the KC metro area.

    • Fred February 9, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      Here’s what I want you to do…get away from the darn computer and stop looking at weather models, and take your Mazda for a drive. A long drive. Help out our atmosphere and get the big snows to return.

      I blame you for your insistence on riding your bike everywhere for the lack of actual snowfall in Kansas City.

      🙂

    • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

      So, by leaving a dusting in the forecast…Gary think there is a reasonable chance of us basically getting nothing…amazing.

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

        Of your Heat
        What the HELL do you wnt him to say !?
        This is the common theme with you today. Yammering on about the dusting forecast.
        Last week he said we could get missed by Tuesdays storm. It happened.
        It might be a dusting. It might be zero.
        Annoying is what you are.

    • Anonymous February 9, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

      Lol

      • Gary February 9, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

        The twist is zero. The Euro has zero, seriously no more than a dusting over most of our area. Wow! I will be looking for the other models to trend in this direction.

        Now, I do not think we end up with zero. But, I do think that some freezing drizzle or very light snow is possible tonight, which could cause problems, then the dusting by Sunday morning, with that high end of 1 or 2 inches.

        Gary

        • Bsmike February 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

          And the same storm gives Chicago what it said it would get but us here it trends to nothing, but just yesterday it was 7 in for us and 12 for Chicago as they are getting. Such BS

        • Mike February 9, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

          Nothing is going to happen!!

        • Richard February 9, 2018 at 3:15 pm - Reply

          Ignore him Gary.
          He’s a know it all piss ant

          • Richard February 9, 2018 at 3:30 pm - Reply

            * referring to Heat, not Bsmike
            But all of the complaints about these small events are getting old.
            It is this years LRC, plain and simple.

            Life is too short.

  42. LYITC41 February 9, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

    Unless there’s a “twist”.

  43. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

    I think the people who don’t think we have a good idea of this storm are the ones who wish it would snow more.

    • Anonymous by choice February 9, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

      +1

  44. Urbanity February 9, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    Gotta love the GFS as each week it shows a storm 7-10 days out covering 5 states and snowing like it’s the great Ice Age. Never ever ever look at the models beyond 6 days, and lately it’s been beyond 6 hours.

    The tremendous drought of 2017-18 will probably mimic 1995-96, but let’s hope it ends quickly like that one did.

  45. Clint February 9, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

    Whether you believe that it will be a dusting to 2in or a dusting to 4in its the same thing just another low end snowfall event.

  46. Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

    JL’s prediction today: Nothing at all: 10% Dusting – 3″: 65% 3-6″: 20% More than 6″: 5%

    • Clint February 9, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Close to what Gary is saying, seems fair.

    • Richard February 9, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

      Go look again

      JL said :
      Nothing at all: 18%

      Dusting to 2″: 70%

      3-6″ of snow: 10%

      More than 6″ of snow: 2%

  47. Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

    Ah the forecast of a “twist” – gotta love that as an out…

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

      “An out” Pete? Just so you know, and I am pretty sure you already know as a long time follower of this blog, I do not, and never have tried to create an out. I just tell you what I think will happen. As, I just stated, the twist may be just barely a dusting, but this isn’t a twist at all as it is part of our forecast. This is what a dusting to 2″ means.

      Gary

      • Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

        Gary I just don’t like it, that’s all.

        • JoeK February 9, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

          Pete,

          You may not like it because you don’t understand what a “twist” means. Gary does NOT use it as an out or to CYA. Even as accurate as I believe the LRC to be, it is scientifically impossible to predict the future with absolute precision and specificity. The fact that these systems are similar, cycling through consistently and comparable in moisture production, proves the validity of the LRC. The models prove that even technology and our Super Computers can’t handle the complexities of predicting weather. There are so many dynamics at play thus, the “twist” . It amazes me that folks don’t apply logic in its most basic sense and understand the weather. I would challenge anybody on here that whether or not they believe in the lRC, they are using it on a regular basis and would further bet that when talking to friends or family, they are identifying when the next storm will approach and what it may do. The models cannot tell us that, the only reason we know is….you guessed it, the LRC

          • Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 5:13 pm - Reply

            Ok, thanks.

  48. Clint February 9, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Anyone traveling south or east of KC tomorrow morning there is some freezing drizzle showing up on the RAP
    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018020917/021/zr_acc.conus.png

  49. Jack February 9, 2018 at 12:18 pm - Reply

    Can we talk a little bit about liquid to snow ratios for this storm? Temps look to be between 10-19 degrees, wouldn’t that put the ratios up to to 20:1? QPF looks to be around 0.1 at the low end to about 0.3 at the high end. The would seem to mean around 1-2 inches at the low end and 5-6 at the high end? My gut tells me that 5-6 is too much, even 4 seems a little high. Gary what are your thoughts on this?

    I forsee around an inch for the southside of the city, around 2 for kc, and areas more north around Atchison being 2-3 inches, with isolated 4-inch spots.

    Great blog today, Gary. I know you are saying dusting-2, but where do you see the higher and lower totals? Love to hear your thoughts on the ratios and QPF.

    Jack

  50. LYITC41 February 9, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Moderate to heavy snow band parked right over and training on Chicago. Winter wonderland lovers are getting quite the nice show up there.

  51. Joe February 9, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

    Shaping up to be another swing and a miss for KC

    • Jack February 9, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

      What information are you making this statement on?

  52. Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    NWS sticking to 1-3 for the metro. For now.

    • Fred February 9, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

      You know they are going to trend it down. Look for it to happen this afternoon. Heavier snow will move north, we will get a dusting…with the twist being a dusting.

      This has been a frustrating winter, to say the least.

      • Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

        You may be on to something. Wasn’t the NWS calling for more just last night?

      • Anonymous February 9, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

        Lol

  53. choppy February 9, 2018 at 12:47 pm - Reply

    Everybody and their mother appears to be pre treating right now. Guess I’ll go load up and join the party for tonights possible action. First I’m hearing of freezing drizzle making it this far south.

  54. Terry February 9, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    Is the Canadian model is right I’m snow amounts and you ended on Sunday.

    It show 1.6 inches

    • Tdogg February 9, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

      Yes Terry I couldn’t agree more!!

    • Mr. Pete February 9, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

      ?

  55. sedsinkc February 9, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    This snow season, I’ve had 5.0 inches of snow total at my residence in KC North just S of Gladstone. Eagerly waiting to see if/how this weekend’s expected snowfall fizzles here, tho I have more optimism we’ll actually get some snow this time, unlike the non-event around KC on Tuesday. I’m expecting 1 to 1.5 inches this time, best guess, though an unexpected overachiever would help get us closer to my seasonal prediction of 13 inches, which is in greater jeopardy if this weekend fizzles.

  56. Terry February 9, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

    I still say 2 to 3 inches

  57. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    Is it just me or looking at the HRRR the HRRR model is leaning in the direction that the lift is going to be so marginal with this storm that we may not even get enough forcing to create dendrites and the whole event may be a freezing drizzle and no snow at all?

  58. Rod February 9, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    Trying not to look too far ahead but after the GFS showed this yesterday then it went away now it’s back on the mid-day run makes you wonder. This looks like a classic desert southwest storm with a lot of heavy convective precipitation coming up through the Oklahoma Texas Panhandle’s late next week into the weekend. I know with this year’s pattern it’s highly unlikely that this will come to anything, let alone a strong negatively tilted storm going south of us. Does this have anyone else’s attention because it does look very impressive?? We can dream!! Does anyone know if this fits the LRC for a storm around February 16-18th?

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

    • Remembercody February 9, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

      On what date was Amarillo’s last precipitation? Only way I see that storm being true is if it is cycling per the LRC, meaning, way back when the LRC started for this season, I’d expect to be able to go back to the first or second cycle to match next weeks storm with one that had produced for that part of Texas but it hasn’t, has? Honest question. Thank you.

      • sedsinkc February 9, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

        October 13, Amarillo had .01 inches of rain. That was the last time AMA officially had measurable precipitation. That was 119 days ago.

  59. Craig February 9, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

    The 18Z NAM says this:
    Put your shovels away and get out your brooms.

    • Phillip February 9, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

      Cool?

  60. Morgan February 9, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

    The NAM is also weak sauce.

  61. Jack February 9, 2018 at 2:22 pm - Reply

    Latest NAM looks to put most of the snow up north and lacks the secondary band that would move through the city…

    • sedsinkc February 9, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

      Would not be surprised at all if this storm fizzles. It’s been the theme this entire winter, except our snowy surprise last Sunday.

  62. Matt Maisch February 9, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    Groundhog Day continues. Wash, rinse, repeat…for 4 years..

  63. Phillip February 9, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    Surly you guys didn’t really think we were getting any measurable snow out of this?!? 😂😂 give it up!!

  64. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Are you guys looking at the same NAM I am? The NAM I see has the first band that was supposed to be all up north actually pivot through the city then a 2ndary band forming behind that. It’s almost double what the 12z NAM showed in terms of banding. Actually shows almost 9 hours of snowfall – especially if the 2 bands can fill in – versus showing 2 hours of snowfall earlier.

    It’s a good trend.

    Just keep in mind the light snow it shows over the city Saturday morning may be freezing drizzle if the HRRR is right.

  65. weatherjaded February 9, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    That’s coming in line as Gary said it would. The model’s have consistently over estimated the amount of QPF every time. The 18z NAM doesn’t look significantly different than the 12z run except with about 1/10″ less liquid across the board.

  66. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    Actually take that back comparing the NAM to NAM 3km :S

  67. Lary Gezak February 9, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    An important thing to keep in mind while looking at snow accum in models: most snow accumulation maps will give you the total snow using the 10:1 ratio. We know with this snow, it will be the lighter, fluffier snow because of the cold air, which likely will bump the ratio to around 15:1 or so.

  68. Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

    It really appears that all the models except the GFS are converging on a solution that gives the most snow to areas Northwest of a Minneapolis to St Joe line.

  69. numb3rsguy February 9, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    Up in Iowa the NWS missed a forecast the last 24 hours. There was a winter storm warning from 6pm last night to 6pm today, with 6-8″ of snow forecast with isolated amounts to 10″ possible. By 6am this morning, the winter storm warning was canceled, it was done snowing, and we had 4″. Even when the storm is less than 24 hours away, it is often times still forecasted incorrectly. I think they used the models, which are just incredibly inaccurate.

    • Matt Maisch February 9, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

      Fort Dodge received 11″ out of the storm, so, it wasn’t a total miss by the models.

    • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 3:15 pm - Reply

      Are the models inaccurate or is it a matter of expectation?. Do you consider 4″ of snow with a forecast for 6-8″ a flop? It wasn’t Winter storm criteria at 4″ but on the other hand it missed by only 2″ on the low end. I guess you have to decide yourself. In the summer we think nothing of a forecast for 1/4-1/2 inch of rain but with our 20:1 ratios like I have been getting that is the difference between 5 and 10 inches of snow. I do agree that the further out you go in time like 7-10 days that you really don’t want to get too excited by looking at a weather model as its probably wrong. I sometimes wonder if the high resolution of the model output doesn’t lead people into having too high of expectations of the output they are looking at. I know the public wants highly detailed forecasts and long range outlooks but it might just be more than anyone can deliver without risking being wrong a fair amount.

      This pattern is also causing strange things to happen. TWC just morphed this storm in Chicago with the one expected here tomorrow and call it all Mateo. It is was snowing this morning form Western NY to ID at one point in an almost constant band. I can’t recall seeing anything quite like that before.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

        Like an atmospheric River phenomena that the West coast gets every now again

        • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

          Yes it is kind of like that isn’t it. Just a colder and somewhat drier version.

  70. f00dl3 February 9, 2018 at 3:01 pm - Reply

    NAM 3km 18z is pathetic. I’m done with this one. LRC keeps being a twistless LRC and it makes me want to shout.

    • Three7s February 9, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

      Other than the 2-incher that everyone thought would be a dusting. I know it isn’t much, but it still happened and it was worse than expected.

  71. Matt Maisch February 9, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    Can’t wait to see the 18Z GFS. I’m sure it will be a blast to look at. At this point, I won’t be surprised if it shows nearly everyone with less than 2″, which may still be generous.

  72. Phillip February 9, 2018 at 3:17 pm - Reply

    Insanity in this blog. Day in and day out you guys come in here expecting something different. Exciting weather will be here come spring time. Just breathe… it’s not our year for us snow lovers

    • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 3:40 pm - Reply

      We’ve had plenty of snows in this area over the years…and there will be more.

  73. Jsquibble February 9, 2018 at 3:25 pm - Reply

    I’m surprised no advisories have been posted with the threat of freezing drizzle in the morning

  74. Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    And people will continue to looks at models 7-10 out after this passes and once again bears no resemblance to those models.

    • weatherjaded February 9, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

      Are we now analyzing how people look at data now? Model data isn’t a forecast, it’s just data. And let people look at them how they would like to.

      • Heat Miser February 9, 2018 at 4:30 pm - Reply

        It actually proven to be quite useless looking at models for snow for KC 7-10 days out, as Gary attested to yesterday. If people want to keep advertising fake weather, aka model 10 days out (like fake news), knowing that it doesn’t reflect reality, I can’t stop em. But if you keep banging your head against a wall, and it hurts every time, you might want to stop.

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

        It’s Heat’s schtick. Complaining about people looking at models more than 3 days out.
        Hey Heat, you got it wrong above. Go back and look at JLs prediction

        Nothing at all: 18%

        Dusting to 2″: 70%

        3-6″ of snow: 10%

        More than 6″ of snow: 2%

        • Tdogg February 9, 2018 at 4:43 pm - Reply

          Heat Miser-A full grown man acting like a spoiled child. Bitching and moaning about almost everything. Must live a sad life to be so bitter. And ladies, he’s single!!!

          • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 9:29 pm - Reply

            Says the troll who hates his life so much the only thrill he gets is trying to make others feel worse than him on pay weather blog. OUCH!!!!

            • Richard February 10, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

              It’s not a pay blog !

        • Gary February 9, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

          I have made graphics like this before. Do you like them? I just think a dusting to 2″ is nearly 100%.

          Gary

          • Fred Nolan February 9, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

            Yes graphics like those would be nice.

        • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 9:28 pm - Reply

          Oh…he changed it then.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 9, 2018 at 4:50 pm - Reply

      This storm was in models way past 7 days ago, and it is here. So the models weren’t that crazy afterall. The amounts have been in great flux, but the models Absolutly nailed the fact a storm would be nearby, can’t deny it

  75. Urbanity February 9, 2018 at 3:56 pm - Reply

    Cold, dry, and last all winter. C’mon bloggers, why do your expect more? The LRC has spoken, CAN YOU HEAR IT?

    • Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

      Hard to argue with your logic. I wonder what this pattern would produce in May or June? There is sure not a lack of systems just a lack of production.

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 6:33 pm - Reply

        When the gulf opens up we will get rain.
        And with all of the arctic air that we have had, we should get several cool-downs this summer, right when we will be needing them.

  76. K10K7 February 9, 2018 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    18Z GFS is now less than 2” – It may be negative by tomorrow afternoon!

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

      LMOL!!!!!! Our snowfall total for the winter is 5.4″ in seven snows. By Sunday it may be dropped to 4.9″ again after a negative .5″. OMG

      • Richard February 9, 2018 at 4:34 pm - Reply

        Thats a new one on me 😄 Gary what is LMOL ?

        • Gary February 9, 2018 at 6:13 pm - Reply

          Laugh Madly Out Loud

          • Richard February 9, 2018 at 6:34 pm - Reply

            Oh, lol ok !

      • K10K7 February 9, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

        Gary, you may need to ask for the Snowflake Contest Winner to return their prizes as well if these pattern continue through the rest of the month…

        • Gary February 9, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

          OMG, LMOL again!

          • Richard February 9, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

            Gary
            You and Andy have a great dinner out tonight with Grunhad and his wife celebrating your anniversaries.
            ( heard you on 810 this morning)
            Happy Anniversary

            • Richard February 9, 2018 at 6:40 pm - Reply

              *Grunhard

  77. Bill in Lawrence February 9, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

    Gary:
    Happy Friday afternoon to you sir!!

    First of all, thanks so much for the kind words above…it is very much appreciated!!

    I indeed have used enough salt in my posts for my drive LOL; I just want to make sure that it is known that my posts are just the musings of a hobbyist and should always be looked upon as such….9 out of 10 times I will probably be wearing clown suit just as I will be with the upcoming wonderful wave that has decided to be a KU basketball player in an Elite 8 Game and disappear!!!

    Of course even with the above stated that has never stopped me from posting my thoughts so here goes a few more.

    The first interesting thing is the new idea of some pockets of freezing drizzle/light snow that the 18Z NAM is for sure picking up on. Granted we are talking only .05 to .1 of liquid QPF but the soundings show a small warm nose at around the 700 level that could make this freezing drizzle…. .1 of freezing drizzle can for sure cause a bit of a mess on secondary roads especially considering how cold the pavement will be. In my humble opinion this is for sure something worth watching and being on the look out for. I guess this is our “twist” LOL

    I think following this wave on the models has been quite fascinating especially the two American models. The GFS for 8 straight runs had the same solution….we have not seen that kind of consistency in the model for one wave this entire winter. Finally when we get within 36 hours of the event, it begins to trend down…yes….this was expected but with every other wave the GFS would have it more organized for a run or two then lose it and then bring it back etc….this one it kept holding serve much more consistently than any other wave for several runs. The NAM which really had the correct idea from the beginning all of a sudden on the 12Z depicts a much more organized wave while the GFS begins to depict a much weaker wave. I’m not talking about what they should show just that it I found the consistency on the GFS very interesting and then all of a sudden the NAM with new soundings begins to trend towards the earlier GFS runs. Yes I will admit, even with the difference on most of the NAM when the NAM came out stronger on the 12Z I did take into consideration that with the GFS being that consistent and now the new trend in the NAM that it was possibly onto something. I never fully bought it but I sure did not think one could just dismiss it out of hand. Then came the 12Z GFS…it’s like they did a Freaky Friday body switch or something for that one run….anyway…I just think it was all interesting as far as following the models.

    Regarding a “twist”. I have talked about a possible (around 30%) twist in some of the waves in cycle 3 for close to a month now. Twist may not be the best term but I think it fits. I know it drives many on here crazy and leads one to think it is “sell out” but I disagree with that. There have been several examples presented from past LRC’s where a wave in the same season over produced or even under produced from one cycle to another. In the winter Gary presented the 2006 wave that produced 8 inches in cycle 2 but in cycle 3 was just flurries. I have discussed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009 that in cycle 3 was just a rain snow mix. A summer example would be from last year where a wave produced just .5 of rain in cycle 5 but in Cycle 6 I had the worst flood in probably 20 years….close to 9 inches of rain…that was a twist. I will respectfully argue that with all of the cold air this pattern has there is a chance, small though it may be, that one of these waves could have a twist where it is just slightly stronger and produce a decent winter event. My true candidates were 1 of the several waves in this December 16-31st phase; another would be the rain to snow wave from January 11th; the 3 inch snow I received on January 14th or the rain to snow event from January 20th/21st . The chances are 30% at best but I think they are there. When a model like the GFS was as consistent with a wave as it was this one and then throw in the 12Z NAM (even considering the weaker GFS 6Z Run) I will admit, I could not just dismiss it out of hand; even though the EURO and NAM (for the most part) were not fully on board. So..yes..I do thing waves can have a twist within the same season…the chances may not be the best but it is there and we saw one this past Sunday by the way. Nor do I think the idea of a “twist” does anything to the credibility of the LRC…all the players are there right on schedule and for 90% of the time they will play/act like they did in the previous seasonal cycles….but there is always a chance they could behave just a bit different to produce more or less than the previous cycle. Obviously with the trends on the 18Z the percentage of this being that wave have dwindled considerably.

    Finally…it appears my 1-2 inches for my neck of the woods is playing the Great Kin Band/Weird Al Yankovick and is in some serious jeopardy. Looking at the moisture in the 700 and 850 levels of the 18Z NAM it does not look real good. Tonight may the highlight of this entire set up. However, if I can squeeze out an inch or wonders of wonders I get two inches this will have been a pretty good week of winter weather. 3-4 inches of snow (if I maximize that is…still 2 inches and some freezing drizzle if not), 2 nights of temps at 0 or in the single digits; 3 days of highs of below freezing; 25% of the big part of Clinton lake iced back over; still snow patches left on the ground….and 3 discussions of possible snow events in one week; compare that to last year at this time or to February 2016….also, I have had just about the same amount of QPF as I was at this time last year…you take away the 1.4 inches from the non ice storm and last year was incredibly dry here from November-April. Take all of this and add the December 17-January 15th time frame and as frustrating as this winter has been for snow and moisture, I would take it ever day of the week and twice on Sundays over the past 3 years.

    I’m off to senior night…..will be interesting to see what the 0Z show in regards to the possible freezing drizzle scenario. I’ll stick with 1-2 with a 10% chance of 3 and less than 1% chance of 3 plus but still less than 10% of flurries to a dusting…like Christmas Eve, I do think that this will produce at least 1 full inch and maybe 2. I’ll take every flake and be happy or if need be, wear the clown suit and eat the crow!!!!

    Have a great Friday everyone!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  78. Weatherman February 9, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply

    KCI to the Iowa border 4-6 inches. KC 1-2 inches.

    South of Harrisonville/Paola line? Forget about it

  79. Troy Newman February 9, 2018 at 4:46 pm - Reply

    With the 18z GFS the model agreement is excellent on the track. That probably means all of them are wrong.

  80. Roger February 9, 2018 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    “The situation on the southern Plains is rapidly becoming dire, and precipitation will be needed soon to prevent further expansion or intensification of drought.” — Drought Monitor
    Oklahoma wheat: 79% poor to very poor, 93% of topsoil short to very short
    Yikes!

  81. Roger February 9, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

    “… the SWE was approaching or at historical lows (25th percentile or lower, with many stations reporting no snow at all) from western Colorado and much of Utah southward into Arizona and New Mexico….The lack of snow is having an immediate impact, forcing some ski areas to close historically early….with season-to-date precipitation tallying a meager 25 percent of normal or less from southern California into the Four Corners region. In many of the aforementioned areas, drought will rapidly expand and intensify if precipitation does not return soon.” — Drought Monitor

    Let it rain/snow, let it rain/snow, Please God, let it rain/snow.

    • Three7s February 9, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

      This is how La Nina typically works. I know the LRC is the main thing, but La Nina’s influence this year is obviously.

  82. Clint February 9, 2018 at 6:37 pm - Reply

    I sticking with 2-4 across the viewing area, I may very well be wrong but I believe we are getting a slightly more juiced up cycle.

  83. Phillip February 9, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    5 saying 1.5”… snow starts 11pm-3am Sunday.

  84. Anonymous by choice February 9, 2018 at 8:13 pm - Reply

    50s Wed & Thu will be nice.

  85. Emaw February 9, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply

    If this thing gets all streched out tomorrow night good luck getting more than 1″ in metro.

    • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 8:43 pm - Reply

      and if it doesn’t get all stretched out? How much?

      • Emaw February 9, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

        Well, a dusting to 2″ of course.

        • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

          lol…so whether it gets stretched out or not it could theoretically be the same amount.

  86. Rod February 9, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

    Evening GFS run brings 2-4” of snow down into central MO into Columbia. Not sure I buy this solution but the models have been so poor I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re all wrong and we get some type of twist at the last minute and somebody picks up several inches of snow.

    http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

  87. Kstater February 9, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    I am in Omaha for the weekend where it is currently snowing very heavily. 2-4 inches is supposed to fall overnight and I am excited to see a decent snowfall for the first time in awhile. I really hope at least a couple of inches will fall back home but 0Z nam doesn’t look good showing about 1/2-1 inch except in northern Missouri.

    • Kim February 10, 2018 at 12:01 am - Reply

      In Omaha for the weekend too. 1st real snow I’ve seen in years. Glad I don’t have to shovel it and will most likely be going home to 2″ or much, much less.

  88. Matt February 9, 2018 at 9:13 pm - Reply

    Weather Channel shows 5-6 inches in Mid MO including KC area.

    • Gary February 9, 2018 at 9:29 pm - Reply

      These bad forecasts from TWC and others do not do us any favors.

      • Rod February 9, 2018 at 9:37 pm - Reply

        So speaking of the weather channel & weather underground they show a very active period from late next Thursday through the following Thursday with rain/snow chances nearly every day & night. Does any of this fit the LRC & are these systems that we need to watch for any potential accumulating snows? Thanks

        • Gary February 9, 2018 at 10:52 pm - Reply

          Nothing like that! There are two more systems likely to track within these next ten days.

    • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

      LoL…I wish…but TWC is really unreliable

    • HEAT MISER February 9, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

      I just looked at their online map…they have KC on the borderline between less than an inch and 1-3 inches

      • Rod February 9, 2018 at 9:48 pm - Reply

        Heat Miser I just watched video on my TV for the weather channel & they are forecasting 1-3” from KC along I-70 over to Columbia. Not sure where Matt was seeing 5-6”. 1-3” I can believe & is more realistic with the snow drought & pattern we’re in.

  89. Bsmike February 9, 2018 at 10:02 pm - Reply

    Ha , classic we got WWA to north and to south of kc. 😤🤦‍♂️💩💩💩💩💩

  90. Waldo Weather February 9, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

    Last year we didn’t have the cold air for the storms, this year we do and still no luck. I guess it’s better then 0 storms without ANY hope. But obviously like everyone else, I just want to see a big snow storm over KC.

  91. SnowCommander February 9, 2018 at 11:35 pm - Reply

    Does anybody remember what the farmers almanac had for this season?

  92. Mr. Pete February 10, 2018 at 12:47 am - Reply

    I just stepped outside and there was a noticeable frozen precipitation falling. Sounded like ice. I’m in Prairie Village.

  93. f00dl3 February 10, 2018 at 4:46 am - Reply

    Don’t we go into a quiet period into March after this next week?

  94. Michael Casteel February 10, 2018 at 6:40 am - Reply

    I recorded about one inch of snow up here in Maryville! More tonight!
    Michael

  95. Blue Flash February 10, 2018 at 6:47 am - Reply

    KC Metro…..Poof!

    • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 7:20 am - Reply

      You are the biggest douche bag on this blog… hands down. Home life must really suck.. it’s gotten to the point that I’m kind of starting to feel sorry for you

      • Blue Flash February 10, 2018 at 7:32 am - Reply

        You sir have me mistaken for someone else. I am not the “poofer”. I rarely comment on this blog. Your comment is not appreciated.

        • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

          Lol you’re right 😬 so many blue people in here.

        • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

          My apologies

          • Blue Flash February 10, 2018 at 7:40 am - Reply

            Accepted

          • HEAT MISER February 10, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

            You are thinking of Bluetooth I think

      • Bluetooth February 10, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

        Philip, you are an arse…very insulting. You sound like the unhappy one judging by your posts….

  96. Anonymous February 10, 2018 at 7:32 am - Reply

    i live south west of lincoln ne… snowed 3 inches last night. really beautiful outside now. Fresh snow. My dogs are so happy playing in it.

    Great work Gary.. man this LRC is so cool. Glad i found u on 810 radio. You deserve a raise just for having to work with the clown key klutz man,,, what a tool that guy is, never seen a person sooo jealous of OU sports.

    GO SOONERS

  97. deleted February 10, 2018 at 7:35 am - Reply

    nice work Gary! You the man.. this LRC is so cool. Glad i found you on 810 radio a few years ago. You deserve a raise just working for that place. Kevin Klutzman is a tool. never heard a clown so jealous of OU sports. Funny clown he is.

    GO SOONERS

  98. Rodney Sherman February 10, 2018 at 7:39 am - Reply

    We need a Texas Hooker!!!! Pull up that Gulf Moisture and get a dumping!!!!

  99. Richard February 10, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Less than one inch ! Dusting ! Gary was rrrright ! Lol

  100. choppy February 10, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    I was bored so went to the NWS sight this morning. Don’t particularly care for them until it’s about to happen. Their current totals are about a dusting or slightly better from around Liberty south. You’ll have to be closer to St Joe to see any real action. Everyone seems to be backing off as usual.

  101. Richard February 10, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    We won’t even get that dusting here in JoCo

    Where oh where did our snow go. Oh wait, it never was going to be our snow.

  102. f00dl3 February 10, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    Don’t worry guys. Winter just begun. We got plenty of time to get good snows. Our biggest snows happen in March.

    😀

    • Bobbie February 10, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

      Lol I was waiting on that post^

    • choppy February 10, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

      There it is 🙂

    • HEAT MISER February 10, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

      lol..we ve had several snows since then and we will likely have several more to come..not sure you are helping your cause there Poindexter…time has proven those statements correct.

      • Three7s February 10, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

        You must be very easy to please when it comes to snow.

      • Richard February 10, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

        Several more to come ? Lol
        You are living in a fantasy bubble Heat.

      • Bluetooth February 10, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

        Gary didn’t believe me 3 days ago when I said we and not KC were going to get the Saturday snow. There will be 6-7 inches of snow on the ground after tonight…..

  103. Mr. Pete February 10, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    The blog was named 100% chance of Saturday night snow yesterday. So maybe the twist we were talking about is no snow at all?

  104. Phillip February 10, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

    If so, Gary blew another one!!!

    • Bluetooth February 10, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      Yep. I told Gary 3 days ago that we would get the snow in SEiowa and he didn’t want to believe it for whatever reason.

  105. Lary Gezak February 10, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    This is comical. This storm trended from 3″ to less than 1″ in less than 24 hours. Sums up our winter. I am so ready for Spring.

    • Bluetooth February 10, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      It is, kind of sad for you all there. After this latest swing and a miss it really starts warming up….spring is getting close. Remember, St. Patrick’s day is 35 days away and that means it’s time to plant potatoes…..

  106. Waldo Weather February 10, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    No new blog by 9 on a Saturday…. 😴😴

    • Bluetooth February 10, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

      Foodl, it certainly has been dry here. If we can snag that 3 or so inches tonight in se ia, we will have 6-7 inches of slow melt as the temperatures increase into the new week.

  107. Troy Newman February 10, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Looks like the model trend is farther North. I am not sure but the better 3-4″ totals may stay in NE and never reach down into KS at all.

    • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

      No 💩?

  108. Ryan February 10, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

    The models are showing a nothing burger 🙁

  109. Michael Garner February 10, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    I’m sure I will be told seasonal difference, same pattern just different results…but why such a warm up when 47 days ago we were experiencing well below temps? Reminds me of last August when it was below average even though the pattern indicated the opposite and even the Weather1 app had to be updated every week because the temp forecasted was off…or I’m just wrong and this warm up is on time just like last year was accurate every month? Yes I’m upset about another winter of little snow and yes I know it’s not Gary’s fault, but seriously why the warm up? Doesn’t seem to match 47 days ago

    • Troy Newman February 10, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

      What warm up? Maybe its warmer there than here but its 5 with a -5 windchill here. I’ve been in the single digits all but one morning this week and had 2 below zero. Wed looks like it could be warm but the forecast temps for this week were a total bust. It was supposed to be 52 on Thursday here and only hit 36 and about everyday was 10 degrees or more colder than the forecast was on Sunday afternoon. It also appears that the extended guidance is looking colder than it did a few days back.

      • Michael Garner February 10, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

        The forecast for Tuesday-Thursday is average to way above average. Time will tell if these forecast are right but 47 days ago was end of December going into January and there was no above average until January 8 which is only 37 days ago. I know I know it isn’t exact as there are seasonal difference but Gary has the LRC and no one else does and has stated many times he knows things that others just don’t because of the LRC.

        • Troy Newman February 10, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

          I apologize for not looking at the KC weather first (I am 220 miles WNW of you). Your weather has been and is forecast to be quite a bit warmer than here. I also had 5″ of snow this week and its still there and that is keeping temps down as well. I think one difference right now is that at Christmas the arctic air went all the way to the Gulf while it isn’t penetrating as far South right now. Maybe that is season maybe not. We know there are other influences on the weather like MJO, AO, NAO, etc and those do impact what happens. Because of this I don’t think you can use the LRC like a cut and paste forecast maker. The same but different idea I guess. It does show the timing of storms and the long wave patter remarkably well. I just think there is too much randomness to weather to expect to make a detailed forecast a month out and expect the same accuracy as you get 1 to 2 days out. The value (in my amateur opinion) to the LRC is that is does provide some decent insight into long range forecasting while most other long range forecast models show almost no skill in predicting weather at that range.

  110. weatherjaded February 10, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    How is 1/2″ of a snow a whiff? He has had the same forecast for days now. A dusting to 2″. So 1/2″ would definitely verify his forecast. Anyone that forecasted anything more than that isn’t paying attention. Sorry, if you wanted more snow than that. That absolutely does not make his forecast wrong.

    • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

      There will be no snow in the immediate Kc metro and yes, Gary will end up wrong again with his 100% chance of snow blog title yesterday.

      • weatherjaded February 10, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

        What data are you using for your no snow forecast?

        • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

          Experience.

  111. weatherjaded February 10, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Or are you just trolling? Seem’s like calling it a blow forecast and criticizing Gary before it is even started is just being a blog troll.

    • Phillip February 10, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

      Call it what you like… you will see come tomorrow morning

  112. Troy Newman February 10, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

    I think Gary still has a decent chance of being right. Now a 100% chance is letting it fly with both barrels but all the guidance I am seeing points toward a 1/2″ to maybe 1″ of snow. You just have to divide your expectations in half with this years LRC when it comes to amounts.

  113. Tdogg February 10, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

    Might as well be a POOF! Just enough snow to sweep away!

  114. Diamonds February 14, 2018 at 2:25 am - Reply

    Thus, the LRC can be abolished and situated within the GC as a major department.

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