100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

Good morning,

Today, a Winter Storm is moving through the lower Great Lakes. There are many flight cancellations as Chicago is getting hit and it extends to Detroit.  This storm will zip by, and then there is another one, this weekend, forming farther to the southwest.  Would you be shocked if this weekends storm ended up producing almost exactly what the Christmas Eve storm produced?  The LRC has been used, in recent years, to help make accurate forecasts for specific events from the weather for the likely conditions at the Super Bowl played outside in East Rutherford, NJ, four years ago to even more specific examples such as getting the forecast down to a complex of thunderstorms producing potential severe weather.   Let’s take a look.

This is the radar image from Christmas Eve. The latest data continues to trend into the direction of something like this happening Saturday night and early Sunday morning once again, exactly one cycle later, 47 to 48 days after Christmas, which was also on a Saturday night-Sunday morning. It may even be close to the same timing, but of course there will be some differences and we will discuss below.

Kansas City Weather Timeline: I will finish the timeline by 8 AM.

  • Today:  A cold front will move through this morning. It was 40 degrees at 5 AM, and it will drop into the upper 20s or near 30 later this morning with increasing north winds. It will likely stay dry today.
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries. There is a chance of some more organized light snow over northern Missouri.  Low:  10°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a few flurries.  High:  19°
  • Saturday Night: Snow likely, possibly briefly heavy. The best chance of snow is from 10 PM to 6 AM. Low:  8°
  • Sunday:  Snow ending and becoming sunny. Total Snow Accumulations: A dusting to 2″ expected.

I went for a 100% chance of snow Saturday night.  Before I did update this forecast, I found this graphic that I wanted to use to show the chance of snow this weekend.  And, look:

1

This forecast above was from 47 days ago. Remember, we are in a 44 -51 day cycle, centered on around 47-48 days.  As Gary England said to me around ten year ago, “Lezak, I saw it. I saw the LRC. It’s the same, but different”. This is when there was a major snowstorm potentially going to hit Oklahoma City around ten years ago.  I had explained to Gary England that OKC would get hit and all he had to do is look at the previous cycle of the pattern. He saw a glimpse of the cycling pattern.  So, here we are; the same, but different. We are in the same part of the pattern that produced snow on Christmas Eve, and here is the graphic I updated for this weekend. It even is falling on the same day of the week with a similar timing:

2

117Jeff Penner was at work that Sunday morning, and he will be at work again this Sunday morning. He better not only be measuring 0.8″ of snow. That is what he measured 47 days ago.  And, the snowflake contest did not end. 1.1″ of snow fell at KCI Airport, and 1.4″ was recorded in Overland Park, KS. In fact, there was a minimum of under an inch right near the Plaza where Jeff measured the lowest total in the city that day.  Remember, it is the same but different, as Gary England pointed out years ago.  So, can’t the “difference” this time work in our favor?  Kansas City continues its streak of under 3″ of snow on any calendar day. The streak is now over 4 years long.  And, the chance that it continues is still rather high.  This means that our forecast of a dusting to 2″ is the most likely scenario.  We will continue monitoring this set up for any adjustments and changes, but right now there are still models that have lower totals. The European model came in just after midnight and it did end up modeling 1-2 inches, but most of its snow was on Sunday morning.

This next map shows one solution for Saturday night around 11 PM, and then for Sunday morning as the system falls apart.

3

4

The set up is there for a lot more snow. If you look at the 850 mb flow, all we need is a slightly stronger solution, a slightly stronger storm dropping into the Rocky Mountains, and then we will be able to up the totals. But, any weaker, and then just a dusting will be the most likely solution.

2

This is a strong baroclinic zone, frontal zone around 5,000 feet up. The 0°C line extends from Hobart, OK northeast to Chanute, KS, and then northeast to Indianapolis, IN. There is a 25°C contrast from -15 to +10 degrees Celsius. If there is any decent wave aloft that could trigger just some lifting, then this could turn into a big snowstorm.  We are monitoring closely, but from what we have experienced this season, it most likely will not come together. If there is any indication that it will, then you know I will jump all over it. This is just set up to blast someone, but there needs to be a trigger.

The Cycling Pattern:

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 12.28.17 AM

Here is more of “the same, but different. The Christmas week part of the pattern is cycling through right now. As we tweeted out a couple of weeks ago, this is right on schedule. Other meteorologists suggested that this was returning. It isn’t just returning, but it has returned, cycled back through, and the pattern is cycling regularly. It will return again in late March. We will find out what the spring version of this pattern will bring. Could there be a Major Winter Storm just as spring begins? The answer is likely yes, but will it be Chicago, Des Moines and Omaha, or KC that gets targeted? This is the big question.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the weather blog by clicking on the blog at Weather2020.com.  This conversation will be a good one today. Let’s track in this chance of snow.

Gary

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Diamonds
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Diamonds

Thus, the LRC can be abolished and situated within the GC as a major department.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Might as well be a POOF! Just enough snow to sweep away!

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I think Gary still has a decent chance of being right. Now a 100% chance is letting it fly with both barrels but all the guidance I am seeing points toward a 1/2″ to maybe 1″ of snow. You just have to divide your expectations in half with this years LRC when it comes to amounts.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

Or are you just trolling? Seem’s like calling it a blow forecast and criticizing Gary before it is even started is just being a blog troll.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Call it what you like… you will see come tomorrow morning

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

How is 1/2″ of a snow a whiff? He has had the same forecast for days now. A dusting to 2″. So 1/2″ would definitely verify his forecast. Anyone that forecasted anything more than that isn’t paying attention. Sorry, if you wanted more snow than that. That absolutely does not make his forecast wrong.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

There will be no snow in the immediate Kc metro and yes, Gary will end up wrong again with his 100% chance of snow blog title yesterday.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

What data are you using for your no snow forecast?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Experience.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

I’m sure I will be told seasonal difference, same pattern just different results…but why such a warm up when 47 days ago we were experiencing well below temps? Reminds me of last August when it was below average even though the pattern indicated the opposite and even the Weather1 app had to be updated every week because the temp forecasted was off…or I’m just wrong and this warm up is on time just like last year was accurate every month? Yes I’m upset about another winter of little snow and yes I know it’s not Gary’s fault, but seriously why… Read more »

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

What warm up? Maybe its warmer there than here but its 5 with a -5 windchill here. I’ve been in the single digits all but one morning this week and had 2 below zero. Wed looks like it could be warm but the forecast temps for this week were a total bust. It was supposed to be 52 on Thursday here and only hit 36 and about everyday was 10 degrees or more colder than the forecast was on Sunday afternoon. It also appears that the extended guidance is looking colder than it did a few days back.

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

The forecast for Tuesday-Thursday is average to way above average. Time will tell if these forecast are right but 47 days ago was end of December going into January and there was no above average until January 8 which is only 37 days ago. I know I know it isn’t exact as there are seasonal difference but Gary has the LRC and no one else does and has stated many times he knows things that others just don’t because of the LRC.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I apologize for not looking at the KC weather first (I am 220 miles WNW of you). Your weather has been and is forecast to be quite a bit warmer than here. I also had 5″ of snow this week and its still there and that is keeping temps down as well. I think one difference right now is that at Christmas the arctic air went all the way to the Gulf while it isn’t penetrating as far South right now. Maybe that is season maybe not. We know there are other influences on the weather like MJO, AO, NAO,… Read more »

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

The models are showing a nothing burger 🙁

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Looks like the model trend is farther North. I am not sure but the better 3-4″ totals may stay in NE and never reach down into KS at all.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

No 💩?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Foodl, it certainly has been dry here. If we can snag that 3 or so inches tonight in se ia, we will have 6-7 inches of slow melt as the temperatures increase into the new week.

Waldo Weather
Guest
Waldo Weather

No new blog by 9 on a Saturday…. 😴😴

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Well, there’s nothing to write about.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

It’s up on http://weatherblog.kshb.com/the-8th-snow-event-of-the-winter/ just hasn’t been posted to W2020

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

A new blog to tell us that he whiffed it again??

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

This is comical. This storm trended from 3″ to less than 1″ in less than 24 hours. Sums up our winter. I am so ready for Spring.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

It is, kind of sad for you all there. After this latest swing and a miss it really starts warming up….spring is getting close. Remember, St. Patrick’s day is 35 days away and that means it’s time to plant potatoes…..

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

If so, Gary blew another one!!!

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Yep. I told Gary 3 days ago that we would get the snow in SEiowa and he didn’t want to believe it for whatever reason.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The blog was named 100% chance of Saturday night snow yesterday. So maybe the twist we were talking about is no snow at all?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Don’t worry guys. Winter just begun. We got plenty of time to get good snows. Our biggest snows happen in March.

😀

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

Lol I was waiting on that post^

choppy
Guest
choppy

There it is 🙂

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol..we ve had several snows since then and we will likely have several more to come..not sure you are helping your cause there Poindexter…time has proven those statements correct.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

You must be very easy to please when it comes to snow.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Several more to come ? Lol
You are living in a fantasy bubble Heat.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Gary didn’t believe me 3 days ago when I said we and not KC were going to get the Saturday snow. There will be 6-7 inches of snow on the ground after tonight…..

Richard
Guest
Richard

We won’t even get that dusting here in JoCo

Where oh where did our snow go. Oh wait, it never was going to be our snow.

choppy
Guest
choppy

I was bored so went to the NWS sight this morning. Don’t particularly care for them until it’s about to happen. Their current totals are about a dusting or slightly better from around Liberty south. You’ll have to be closer to St Joe to see any real action. Everyone seems to be backing off as usual.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Less than one inch ! Dusting ! Gary was rrrright ! Lol

Rodney Sherman
Guest
Rodney Sherman

We need a Texas Hooker!!!! Pull up that Gulf Moisture and get a dumping!!!!

deleted
Guest

nice work Gary! You the man.. this LRC is so cool. Glad i found you on 810 radio a few years ago. You deserve a raise just working for that place. Kevin Klutzman is a tool. never heard a clown so jealous of OU sports. Funny clown he is.

GO SOONERS

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

i live south west of lincoln ne… snowed 3 inches last night. really beautiful outside now. Fresh snow. My dogs are so happy playing in it.

Great work Gary.. man this LRC is so cool. Glad i found u on 810 radio. You deserve a raise just for having to work with the clown key klutz man,,, what a tool that guy is, never seen a person sooo jealous of OU sports.

GO SOONERS

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

KC Metro…..Poof!

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

You are the biggest douche bag on this blog… hands down. Home life must really suck.. it’s gotten to the point that I’m kind of starting to feel sorry for you

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

You sir have me mistaken for someone else. I am not the “poofer”. I rarely comment on this blog. Your comment is not appreciated.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Lol you’re right 😬 so many blue people in here.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

My apologies

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Accepted

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

You are thinking of Bluetooth I think

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Philip, you are an arse…very insulting. You sound like the unhappy one judging by your posts….

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded about one inch of snow up here in Maryville! More tonight!
Michael

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Don’t we go into a quiet period into March after this next week?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I just stepped outside and there was a noticeable frozen precipitation falling. Sounded like ice. I’m in Prairie Village.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Does anybody remember what the farmers almanac had for this season?

deleted
Guest

no

Waldo Weather
Guest
Waldo Weather

Last year we didn’t have the cold air for the storms, this year we do and still no luck. I guess it’s better then 0 storms without ANY hope. But obviously like everyone else, I just want to see a big snow storm over KC.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Ha , classic we got WWA to north and to south of kc. 😤🤦‍♂️💩💩💩💩💩

Matt
Guest
Matt

Weather Channel shows 5-6 inches in Mid MO including KC area.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

LoL…I wish…but TWC is really unreliable

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

I just looked at their online map…they have KC on the borderline between less than an inch and 1-3 inches

Rod
Guest
Rod

Heat Miser I just watched video on my TV for the weather channel & they are forecasting 1-3” from KC along I-70 over to Columbia. Not sure where Matt was seeing 5-6”. 1-3” I can believe & is more realistic with the snow drought & pattern we’re in.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

I am in Omaha for the weekend where it is currently snowing very heavily. 2-4 inches is supposed to fall overnight and I am excited to see a decent snowfall for the first time in awhile. I really hope at least a couple of inches will fall back home but 0Z nam doesn’t look good showing about 1/2-1 inch except in northern Missouri.

Kim
Guest
Kim

In Omaha for the weekend too. 1st real snow I’ve seen in years. Glad I don’t have to shovel it and will most likely be going home to 2″ or much, much less.

Rod
Guest
Rod

Evening GFS run brings 2-4” of snow down into central MO into Columbia. Not sure I buy this solution but the models have been so poor I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re all wrong and we get some type of twist at the last minute and somebody picks up several inches of snow.

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Emaw
Guest
Emaw

If this thing gets all streched out tomorrow night good luck getting more than 1″ in metro.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

and if it doesn’t get all stretched out? How much?

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Well, a dusting to 2″ of course.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol…so whether it gets stretched out or not it could theoretically be the same amount.

Anonymous by choice
Guest
Anonymous by choice

50s Wed & Thu will be nice.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

5 saying 1.5”… snow starts 11pm-3am Sunday.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I sticking with 2-4 across the viewing area, I may very well be wrong but I believe we are getting a slightly more juiced up cycle.

Roger
Guest
Roger

“… the SWE was approaching or at historical lows (25th percentile or lower, with many stations reporting no snow at all) from western Colorado and much of Utah southward into Arizona and New Mexico….The lack of snow is having an immediate impact, forcing some ski areas to close historically early….with season-to-date precipitation tallying a meager 25 percent of normal or less from southern California into the Four Corners region. In many of the aforementioned areas, drought will rapidly expand and intensify if precipitation does not return soon.” — Drought Monitor

Let it rain/snow, let it rain/snow, Please God, let it rain/snow.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

This is how La Nina typically works. I know the LRC is the main thing, but La Nina’s influence this year is obviously.

Roger
Guest
Roger

“The situation on the southern Plains is rapidly becoming dire, and precipitation will be needed soon to prevent further expansion or intensification of drought.” — Drought Monitor
Oklahoma wheat: 79% poor to very poor, 93% of topsoil short to very short
Yikes!

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

With the 18z GFS the model agreement is excellent on the track. That probably means all of them are wrong.

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

KCI to the Iowa border 4-6 inches. KC 1-2 inches.

South of Harrisonville/Paola line? Forget about it

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Friday afternoon to you sir!! First of all, thanks so much for the kind words above…it is very much appreciated!! I indeed have used enough salt in my posts for my drive LOL; I just want to make sure that it is known that my posts are just the musings of a hobbyist and should always be looked upon as such….9 out of 10 times I will probably be wearing clown suit just as I will be with the upcoming wonderful wave that has decided to be a KU basketball player in an Elite 8 Game and disappear!!!… Read more »

K10K7
Guest
K10K7

18Z GFS is now less than 2” – It may be negative by tomorrow afternoon!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Cold, dry, and last all winter. C’mon bloggers, why do your expect more? The LRC has spoken, CAN YOU HEAR IT?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Hard to argue with your logic. I wonder what this pattern would produce in May or June? There is sure not a lack of systems just a lack of production.

Richard
Guest
Richard

When the gulf opens up we will get rain.
And with all of the arctic air that we have had, we should get several cool-downs this summer, right when we will be needing them.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

And people will continue to looks at models 7-10 out after this passes and once again bears no resemblance to those models.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

Are we now analyzing how people look at data now? Model data isn’t a forecast, it’s just data. And let people look at them how they would like to.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It actually proven to be quite useless looking at models for snow for KC 7-10 days out, as Gary attested to yesterday. If people want to keep advertising fake weather, aka model 10 days out (like fake news), knowing that it doesn’t reflect reality, I can’t stop em. But if you keep banging your head against a wall, and it hurts every time, you might want to stop.

Richard
Guest
Richard

It’s Heat’s schtick. Complaining about people looking at models more than 3 days out.
Hey Heat, you got it wrong above. Go back and look at JLs prediction

Nothing at all: 18%

Dusting to 2″: 70%

3-6″ of snow: 10%

More than 6″ of snow: 2%

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Heat Miser-A full grown man acting like a spoiled child. Bitching and moaning about almost everything. Must live a sad life to be so bitter. And ladies, he’s single!!!

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Says the troll who hates his life so much the only thrill he gets is trying to make others feel worse than him on pay weather blog. OUCH!!!!

Richard
Guest
Richard

It’s not a pay blog !

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Oh…he changed it then.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

This storm was in models way past 7 days ago, and it is here. So the models weren’t that crazy afterall. The amounts have been in great flux, but the models Absolutly nailed the fact a storm would be nearby, can’t deny it

Jsquibble
Guest
Jsquibble

I’m surprised no advisories have been posted with the threat of freezing drizzle in the morning

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Insanity in this blog. Day in and day out you guys come in here expecting something different. Exciting weather will be here come spring time. Just breathe… it’s not our year for us snow lovers

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

We’ve had plenty of snows in this area over the years…and there will be more.

Matt Maisch
Guest
Matt Maisch

Can’t wait to see the 18Z GFS. I’m sure it will be a blast to look at. At this point, I won’t be surprised if it shows nearly everyone with less than 2″, which may still be generous.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NAM 3km 18z is pathetic. I’m done with this one. LRC keeps being a twistless LRC and it makes me want to shout.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Other than the 2-incher that everyone thought would be a dusting. I know it isn’t much, but it still happened and it was worse than expected.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Up in Iowa the NWS missed a forecast the last 24 hours. There was a winter storm warning from 6pm last night to 6pm today, with 6-8″ of snow forecast with isolated amounts to 10″ possible. By 6am this morning, the winter storm warning was canceled, it was done snowing, and we had 4″. Even when the storm is less than 24 hours away, it is often times still forecasted incorrectly. I think they used the models, which are just incredibly inaccurate.

Matt Maisch
Guest
Matt Maisch

Fort Dodge received 11″ out of the storm, so, it wasn’t a total miss by the models.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Are the models inaccurate or is it a matter of expectation?. Do you consider 4″ of snow with a forecast for 6-8″ a flop? It wasn’t Winter storm criteria at 4″ but on the other hand it missed by only 2″ on the low end. I guess you have to decide yourself. In the summer we think nothing of a forecast for 1/4-1/2 inch of rain but with our 20:1 ratios like I have been getting that is the difference between 5 and 10 inches of snow. I do agree that the further out you go in time like 7-10… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Like an atmospheric River phenomena that the West coast gets every now again

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

Yes it is kind of like that isn’t it. Just a colder and somewhat drier version.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

It really appears that all the models except the GFS are converging on a solution that gives the most snow to areas Northwest of a Minneapolis to St Joe line.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

An important thing to keep in mind while looking at snow accum in models: most snow accumulation maps will give you the total snow using the 10:1 ratio. We know with this snow, it will be the lighter, fluffier snow because of the cold air, which likely will bump the ratio to around 15:1 or so.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Actually take that back comparing the NAM to NAM 3km :S