The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

/The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

Good afternoon bloggers,

The new data is in, and there is still a chance of a dusting to 2″ near KC, but most likely nothing to a dusting is the better forecast.  We know this five days ago. Watch this video, and read the previous blog for more details.

Video Showing The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago:

Have a great day. We will be tracking any snow developments this afternoon and evening.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. This winter season has produced many small chances, and many have come through. Maybe we will still get a little snow accumulation tonight.

Gary

2018-02-07T11:28:22+00:00February 6th, 2018|General|225 Comments

225 Comments

  1. Matt February 6, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

    Wait a second, are you taking credit for getting this forecast right? The audacity!

    • Fred February 6, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

      Yep. He’s 100% taking credit.

    • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

      You have GOT to be kidding me.

      This is the definition of cherry-picking. What a joke.

      Three days ago, Penner posted a map showing 5:+. The other day, Gary said he anticipated the NWS would issue a winter storm warning. Now he hoists this old forecast claiming a win?

      This is how you lose credibility, Gary. This is precisely how.

      • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

        Snowflake…this is just getting embarrassing. First of all, the map saying 5+ inches was what some models were projecting at the time…he was just showing them to us. He was NOT forecasting that amount. Next, Gary said he thought they might issue a Winter Storm WATCH, not Warning. Huge huge difference…and they didn’t of course. Now, I will agree Gary always try to spin misses into wins…like when everyone missed forecast for that heavy snow we got a couple of days ago and Gary was boasting that his guy looked at the radar and saw the snow moving in before anyone else. That was huge reach. But your other two points just aren’t accurate or fair.

    • Morham February 6, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

      He actually admitted to modelitis on the previous blog. Just saying.

  2. f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

    Winter Storm Watch post and this picture was 2 days ago http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/9.png
    Guess you knew it 5 days ago though – should have stuck with the gut. Why are we even looking at the models at this point? We all know we are going to be hard pressed to get over 2″ this winter – an probably the next 2 winters as well if this is a 6-7 year cycle.

    I think we all know at this point the storm showing up for this weekend we can call BS on. It’s not going to be that strong.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018020612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

    In fact, the last time this pattern was here models forecast the big storm after Christmas then we only got an inch, didn’t it do this same, exact thing – show another storm on Dec. 27-30th?

  3. f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

    What the models did in December and what they are doing now is just laughable.

  4. Terry February 6, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    This weekend storm system is looking pretty interesting for Freezing rain/sleet/snow.

  5. choppy February 6, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    C’mon man. You can’t type every scenario leading up to a storm then go cherry pick the correct statement to prove you’re right. This is getting ridiculous. You state how much you believe in this LRC but never seem to stand by it unless it proves to be correct. You’re better than this…..

    • Matt February 6, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

      +1

    • Clint February 6, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

      Couldn’t agree more. Just WOW!

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

      Comes with the power.

      • Fred February 6, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

        Unbelievable.

    • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Bingo. Type very scenario, wait for the event, then highlight the one that was right.

      Classic Gary Lezak. And everyone in KC knows it. This is classic Lezak.

  6. Richard February 6, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

    Gary
    Video isn’t there. You pushed the wrong button.

  7. Richard February 6, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    The WWA graphic is striking. Look at that. WWA north and south of us. Wow

    https://www.weather.gov/eax/

    • Gary February 6, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

      It is striking, ridiculous, and it is just so tough for us weather and snow enthusiasts to have to go through this. Maybe that one band of snow will form over us this evening. Remember, there was a last second Winter Weather Advisory in that middle area on Sunday.

      The video should be there. Let me know.

      Gary

    • Lary Gezak February 6, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      That’s hilarious. You can’t make this stuff up.

  8. Richard February 6, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    So WHY are we seeing another blog for today ? Do we use this one or the first one.
    Gary could you have added an update to the first blog with a link to the video?

  9. Donald February 6, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    This weekend looks rather interesting.

  10. Richard February 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    It’s all BS.
    Knew in Dec what was going to happen.
    I kept getting told “winter not even here yet.”
    “We are only 2 weeks into winter.” ”
    “Give it time.”
    “Wait until February”
    “We can get big snows in February and March”

    The pattern was set and the wrting was on the wall in December. Remember how dry we were. Still are.
    Winter is over.
    Bring on Spring

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply

      EX ACTILY.

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

      Richard…once again you are losing control…maybe you need a break from the blog. We have had a number of snows this year, shoot we had heavy snow two days ago. And there will be more. All of those statements you quoted above are valid. What’s not valid is calling winter over one week into winter, or crying the sky is falling everytime a bad model run comes out or if a snow misses us. You aren’t being objective, you are being emotional. Here in Lawrence, while we haven’t had a “big snow”, we’ve had a couple of 3 inchers and number of smaller snows…its been pretty nice actually. And there will be more. Try to get a freaking grip…jeeesh.

      • Richard February 6, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

        You are right Heat. 100% correct

  11. Lary Gezak February 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    42 Action News is taking major heat for the 3-6″ forecast made on Sunday

    I am at risk of losing my job. I’m trying to convince the network that my forecast was right, but they aren’t having it.

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

      lol…KSHB NEVER predicted 3-6 inches for this storm. They might have said there was that potential, sure…even yesterday I asked Gary what was the most the storm is capable of creating and he said 7 inches. That wasn’t wrong. I harsh on Gary too when he is wrong and tries to spin it, but many of the objections are based on claims that are simply not true.

      • Lary Gezak February 6, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

        No… talking about my network. 42 Action Weather with Lary Gezak.

  12. JasonAtt February 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    Probably getting tired of peeps complaining about not accurately predicting sprinkles. I know I am. It would be a very boring blog if everyday it said no snow. At least the blog changes with the models and examines them. We can then interpret how we think their prediction fits within his theory, or doesn’t, and maybe learn a thing or two.

    Sorry. Just tired of all the negativity. Probably needs some warmer weather and longer days.

    • Jason February 6, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

      + 1

  13. Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

    Taco Tuesday everyone. Should be a pretty non event here

  14. Tony from the North February 6, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

    All you Trolls on here are a bunch of Idiots. You try and do the job that Mr Lezak, or any weatherman does. He has more cred than any of you combine. What a bunch of stupid nobodys!!!!

    • Jason February 6, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

      + 1

    • Ross February 6, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

      +1

  15. Eric Rothrock February 6, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

    Damn….. So not much snow coming to PV/OP? This sucks!!!!! Is there a way it strengthens? What’s the time frame?

    • Gary February 6, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

      This storm has a chance of a complete miss for KC, but I am still not expecting this. I think a band will form north and west of KC around or just after sunset. If it does, then it could get quite exciting for a few hours. If it does not, then it will be sad. It is like forecasting a line of thunderstorms. It is really similar, but when it comes to snow it is amplified massively. If the snow misses us, it’s much bigger than if a thin line of thunderstorms doesn’t quite get its act together. Let’s se if this gets its act together.

      Gary

      • Eric Rothrock February 6, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

        Thanks for the reply Gary! Appreciate it man! What a bummer for all of us snow lovers. Keep up he good work.

      • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

        Very professional reply in the midst of these trolls stating fake news about what you said would happen Gary. New respect.

        • Tdogg February 6, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply

          What is fake news? Talk about a brown noser!!

  16. Urbanity February 6, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

    This is the narrow band of snow that the wichita forecasters had around the hwy 54 corridor just 24-36 hours ago. It set up north of I-70, very narrow band of snow. The pattern doesn’t fit significant widespread snow in Kansas at all, energy cannot develop far enough to the west to pull in the necessary ingredients over Kansas.

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

      This was apparent in October when the MCS systems we had with the heavy rains formed right on top of us. With less moisture we don’t have the help of convection to boom things up, so we get stuck with ripples of energy with systems maturing to our east since the stronger jetstream moves things along at a faster speed and further south.

      • NoBeachHere February 6, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

        Agreed, this is a persistent MCS pattern for us in the spring and summer. I like severe weather but I don’t like the damage that comes with them. MCS storms do even damage. I’ll take boring, dry winters exchanging for for wet spring , summer and until next LRC

  17. Adam February 6, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

    Remember when Gary was lighting up some followers on FB live last night for being morons, and calling them “DUDE!” Well that anger is exactly how I feel about this post.

    Gary, literally less than 48 hours you said a “Winter Storm Watch would likely be issued for Tuesday”. You said them. Live. On video.

    Now you literally are going to make a second blog post on the day of, when this literally fell apart, TO CLAIM YOURE RIGHT FROM FIVE DAYS AGO?!?

    Dude!!

    Cmon, this is terrible. I’ve said this before, and I’ll say this again. You absolutely cannot claim you use the LRC, when you STOPPED USING IT TWO DAYS AGO, and now you want to claim you were using it all along?!? As someone already said, you’re better than this Gary, and I expect better.

    I’m truly disappointed this blog post exists. It’s absolute trash.

    • Fred February 6, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

      +1

      • Tdogg February 6, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

        +2

        • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

          +3

          • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

            The funny thing is he has this powerful tool in the LRC but he never actually uses it for his forecasts – he listens to the models too much and ignores the pattern.

            • Fred February 6, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

              I agree with you f00dl3. For a while I was not sure the LRC existed…but after spending time reading, listening, and watching, it is obvious there is something to his theory. But, he’s hesitant to use to when he forecasts…which is odd.

              • Three7s February 6, 2018 at 12:31 pm

                It’s because he’s been burned so many times by “twists” to the pattern like Sunday. I think it shows that he’s not 100% confident in forecasting based on the LRC yet. We know there’s a cycling pattern, but he doesn’t know all the nuances to it.

              • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 12:52 pm

                But at the same time if your gonna be wrong be wrong for the right reasons not the wrong reasons. Take a chance. Grow. Don’t fall for the models when you have something better than say “oh we got it right 5 days ago” when you never really said anything concrete to begin with and flip flopped around more than John Kerry between “dusting to 2 inches” and “Winter Storm Watch” and “biggest snow in 4 years.”

                Hell – if I was a TV met. and I had a choice of having my forecast wrong because of the models or having the forecast wrong because of a theory I am trying to prove to the scientific community and get peer reviewed, I’d rather mess up on my theory than mess up because I have a theory but decided to follow the lemmings off a cliff instead.

          • Matt February 6, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

            +4 He’s gloating on twitter too. He’s been telling you all weekend. You all just don’t get it.

    • Jack February 6, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

      I somewhat agree. This prediction was made 5 days ago.. but this prediction was modified. If this prediction had been kept, it would be a big success for 41, not saying 41 ever got it wrong, but it most definitelty wasn’t totall correct.

      • Jack February 6, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

        Also, the title for yesterday’s blog was something like will kc be hit or missed by this storm? Not Kc will be missed by this storm.

        • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

          Bingo.

    • Morham February 6, 2018 at 12:11 pm - Reply

      I am not sure of every ones reading comprehension skills. I don’t think he is saying “I AM RIGHT!! LOOK AT ME!!” He is more like saying “I was right, darn it, at one point, I should have stuck with it”.

      In fact he admits this at the end of the previous blog.

      Just saying…

      • Classy Cat February 6, 2018 at 5:05 pm - Reply

        You don’t think people actually read and listen to everything do you? LOL (not at you, but the people who don’t have all the facts). They have some or most of the facts right, but it’s just like a legal contract…..the entire intent or meaning of something can change on 1 or 2 words or sentences. Without properly acknowledging all facts, the one’s you do present can make the fact pattern appear different.

      • JoeK February 6, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

        Morham,

        Exactly! As I have grown older, I realize that everything depends on perception and science teaches us that the average person forms an opinion based on a title or opening line of a statement with complete disregard for the content. Reading comprehension is critical

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

      Adam, go find another blog…all you do is bitch and moan…fine, you are unhappy with Gary…so move on somewhere else. The only reason to stay somewhere where you feel is “trash” is simply to troll. Goodbye, don’t let the blog door hit you on the way out. By the way, he said a WSW MIGHT be issued, not likely will be issued. And do you even know what a WSW is…its a watch over a huge area, of which only a small portion will get a warning. He was wrong about the watch…so freaking what…get over it. Gary has been incredibly careful about predicting how much snow we will get right up to today, as it has been very clear that he said it’s too difficult to predict how this one will pan out. If you didn’t get that, you haven’t been paying attention.

  18. NoBeachHere February 6, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    Said it before, I’ll say it again;

    Western ridge, neutral AO/NAO, cold, dry

    Weak western ridge, neutral AO/NAO, cool to cold, mostly dry

    Western ridge, beg AO/NAO, cold, dry

    No western ridge, beg AO/NAO, we may be in business

    While fun banter is just that, fun but yesterdays blog dove into an area just short being disrespectful. Gary is excited for snow and may of gone into an area of buying models, does that excuse certain peoples behavior?, no. Does it excuse Gary?, no. He wants a significant snow just as bad as those of us who do. He’s excited for that but for those of you who directed derogatory comments toward his and a few others, disrespectful. Want to prove Gary wrong, go ahead but in a respectful, fact providing way.

  19. Jack February 6, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

    Snow is increasing right on top of kc.. let’s watch these trends and see what they do. HRRR has these echoes weakening and a small band moving over the area around 8-12. I struggle to for see anything more than an inch or 2 if that in the metro, maybe up to 3 inches north of kc.. let’s watch.

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

      It’s all virga I think?

      • Jack February 6, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

        There is some green on noaa.. it is increasing but likely not hitting the ground.

  20. Fred February 6, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

    NWS says that the atmosphere is pretty dry right now, so it’s going to make a few hours to fully saturate before snow starts to fall.

    What a weird weather day. So promising, now so disappointing.

    But, onto the next one…and spring training starts in 10 days.

  21. REAL HUMEDUDE February 6, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

    So is the weekend storm going to disappear or what? Is it on such a fine line as this storm was? Looks Alot bigger ,stronger ,and impactful but I hesitate to say it’s a slam dunk dude to obvious pattern of miss, miss, and rinse, repeat

    • Adam February 6, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      The Euro doesn’t have it, and has never had it, so don’t count on the GFS being right.

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

      but a lot of storms having been missing us, we’ve been hit 7 TIMES, including heavy snow yesterday. The storms just haven’t been strong.

      • Richard February 6, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

        Heat
        There was not heavy snow yesterday.
        Have you not slept since Sunday ?

        • Classy Cat February 6, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

          Rip VanWinkle

  22. Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

    Gary –

    You should be embarrassed by this post.

    Everyone understands forecasting is tough. You can toss out all the caveats you want – like this is akin to thunderstorm now-casting or whatever…we all get that. Yeah, your job is ‘tough’. There will be wins and losses.

    But if you want to be credible (and that’s what this is all about – that’s all you have), then you can’t cherry-pick your data points. Just own the wins AND the losses. If you don’t, then no one will believe any of your claims – and understandably so.

    A million ways you said this even could be significant. You said it last week when you mentioned three storms to watch. You went as far as saying if the Sunday event over-produces from the models, that would be a big boost toward confidence in a big Tuesday event that would break the 4-year streak of no 3″_ events. The Sunday event DID overproduce. And then as recently as Sunday you said the NWS should post a winter storm watch for today’s event. Now you’re saying, “Well, five days ago, I said this may be a bust…and now it’s a bust, so look, I did great!”

    This is dishonest. It’s disingenuous and harmful to your credibility and that of your station.

    Your word is your bond with viewers…and if you don’t keep your word, you won’t keep your viewers.

    • Adam February 6, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

      This. AGAIN. X10000.

    • Urbanity February 6, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

      Snowflake, isn’t that a little over the top. All Gary did was show how a forecast from 5 days ago verified (or could verify), by showing this he is merely saying his analysis came to fruition even though the models and guidance were indicating something different.

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:58 pm - Reply

      Gary…just ban people like snowflake. He’s just being rude and disrespectful..it’s inappropriate and the only reason for him to stay if he feels the way he states is to troll.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 6, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

      What Do You do for a living Snowflake?
      Ever screwed up something? Ever had a million people watching you do your job over your shoulder? Probably NOT
      I am guessing
      Stop making a mountain over a molehill, you should be ashamed for calling out Gary like he made the mistake of the century. Let’s move onto the next storm guys, this isn’t productive criticism it’s just plain old bitching cuz it didn’t snow. Well boo hoo!!!

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 6, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

        Gary is actually first to say we are going to get missed.watched channel 5 at noon and they are still going with 1-2″ for the metro. So Gary is keeping it real whether you like it or not.

      • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

        Hume:

        Of course I’ve missed a call.

        And when that happens, I OWN IT like a man, rather than deflect and try to claim success.

        • Classy Cat February 6, 2018 at 5:12 pm - Reply

          Is it possible, that it’s your interpretation of his post today that has your panties in a wad? Maybe he is doing exactly what you say, but maybe he isn’t. Maybe the posts just above are correct. I mean how do you know unless you would talk to him face to face and make a more informed decision. Maybe your interpretation is just off base because you want it to be. Have you considered that? This is not a slam on you. I’m being genuine and asking a pointed, real question. You’re entitled to your opinion. Just remember, only facts are facts and opinions are not fact.

  23. Waldo weather February 6, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Sooo… on to this weekend storm…?

  24. Weatherby Tom February 6, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    I hate virga

  25. Weatherby Tom February 6, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    having said that, some light snow just started falling…..

  26. Urbanity February 6, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Gary, is the low pressure that was supposed to come out near the KS/OK border actually spinning over/near Colby, KS?

  27. DanT February 6, 2018 at 12:51 pm - Reply

    So this weekend storm matches up with the Christmas Eve event on a 47 day cycle. The models show a storm however that’s all they’re good for this far out. Based on the LRC our region should get another 1-3” event. Remember Northern Missouri saw around 3” with this weekend system.

  28. Tdogg February 6, 2018 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    It’s gonna snow I just know it!! Relax guys, only 7 weeks into winter 😉 seriously though, these forecasts have been disastrous!

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

      What did Gary say last night about trolling Tdogg…try to keep up

      • Tdogg February 6, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

        Lol sorry Robert, I’ll let you keep kissing a$$!

        • Heat Miser February 6, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

          let us know when you are done trolling..we’ll get back to you

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

      You know the irony to all this crap is that the Arctic Air has been SO strong that most of the functional big blockbuster type events that could hit us have been suppressed south of here. Most of the storms we have been getting that have produced have been clippers. The Arctic airmass may not be as strong this cycle – and next cycle around April 20th or so the Arctic air won’t pack nearly even as much of a punch now.

      I would not totally rule out a back loaded winter, and Gary’s 21″ may still have a chance. But the only storm that may do this is the one that gave Atlanta a foot. And it’s a long shot. Not impossible though.

  29. Mr. Pete February 6, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    Wow the drama on here is epic today! I must admit, I’m entertained…

    • MikeL February 6, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

      Definitely lots of posturing….even the trolls are calling out others for being trolls. Pretty crazy…lol

  30. Jack February 6, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Maybe what this little band can do thats formed over kc is saturate the atmosphere before the main band comes over the city.. just a thought.

  31. Bsmike February 6, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    GET OFF HIS ASS!!! Jeez he already admitted MODELITIS, in fact everyone on this blog is GUILTY OF IT!!! 🤦‍♂️

    • Mr. Pete February 6, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

      The tension on here today is off the charts!

    • Matt February 6, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

      To be fair, he buried “Modelities” it in the comments on the previous blog after posting a new one about how proud he is of his forecast 5 days ago. Then blasting twitter with how he predicted this 5 days ago. Some people are going over the top with criticism, but you are going over the top defending him. He can defend himself (or shutdown comments like he did on KSHB). I think most of us feel they he is pointing at us with the blog title and saying, “you are stupid, believe me.”

  32. BIG PAPPA POOF February 6, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

    POOF POOF POOF

    • Heat Miser February 6, 2018 at 3:02 pm - Reply

      oh no…not big pappa poof….

  33. Anonymous February 6, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

    Agree – Gary, you have to own your losses as well as your wins. You should have learned by now to stick by your LRC – you hype it so much, but only use it, for the most part, in hindsight. What good is it? Pretty pictures of the features that are in the same place in two “cycles” does not impress us any more. You want to impress us? Get a forecast right using the LRC. Not just “in the area”. or it “almost produced”, etc…..

  34. LYITC41 February 6, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply

    Why does HM have his nose so far up GL’s rear end. He spends more time trying to police the blog than really contributing to it. As big a problem as anyone.

  35. Morham February 6, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    Silly question, but with the sun breaking out in southeast Kansas and almost here in KC, will that help the developing line be stronger if it develops? (Similar to a spring/summer setup).

    • REAL HUMEDUDE February 6, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

      Never heard of Instability or Cape values in relation to winter storms, that’s purley a convective ingredient for vertical development of cumulonimbus. We can get convective snow squalls, but not in a weak set up like this you need Alot of upper dynamics for convection in cold season from how i understand it

      • Morham February 6, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

        That makes a lot of sense. Thanks Real Hume!

      • JasonAtt February 6, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

        Thanks. I was wondering the same thing. If this was spring/summer and the satellite looked like it does then I would expect a thunderstorm. It almost looks like a warm front sitting over I-70. But, I’m not a met. I didn’t even stay at a Best Western.

  36. Jason February 6, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

    Man, these blog comments just keep getting worse and worse. Good lord people, RELAX a little. Hard for me to even get on here anymore with some of these comments. How some of you can just be a constant A$# is beyond me.

  37. Troy Newman February 6, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    Getting some huge flakes up here in RP county. Looks like the kind of snow you see in the movies.

  38. weatherjaded February 6, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    I don’t agree with with the tone that Snowflake used in his criticism. But, I don’t entirely disagree with everything he said. Gary shouldn’t cherry pick his data and statements to fit what verifies. I think he was being slightly defensive because of all of the negative criticism. His job is very difficult and he will be varying degrees of wrong in most forecasts. It is what it is. I give him a pass on this and so should you. I am not here because he is the most accurate. ( some times he is and sometimes he is not) Its too small of a margin to really matter anyway. I am here because of his passion for weather, the time in effort he puts into the LRC, and the blogs. I’ve never seen anyone that cared about weather as much as he does and it shows. So would you rather he say nothing and not put himself out there? Or say too much and be wrong, and maybe we learn something because of it?

    • Jack February 6, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

      I very much agree with this post! I don’t agree with everything Gary said, but his job is very difficult and this is a frustrating time for snow lovers.. the time being the last four years.

  39. LYITC41 February 6, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

    North and nothing! (My earlier comment was uncalled for sorry about that.)

  40. Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    Ok..who wants to talk politics and religion?😂

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

      Have you read the Lezak Memo? It shows Gary has known about collusion between warm and cold fronts.

      • JasonAtt February 6, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

        That’s obviously a Trumped up charge. The investigation into the frontogenesis was completed fabricated.

        • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 2:40 pm - Reply

          I think they all just need to take some cooling degree days to counteract their politician-caused global warming.

  41. Tim February 6, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    Seriously people? Are you grown adults or little immature kids? Just because we are not getting snow is a reason to act out and troll this blog. Geez!

  42. Bsmike February 6, 2018 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    Stl78 😂😂😂

  43. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

    I’ll take religion for $600

  44. Three7s February 6, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    This place has really been something for the last week now…..

    Amazing what a tiny snow can do to this place.

  45. Fred February 6, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    Let’s talk about the storm that has been consistently on the GFS (not on the EURO) for this coming weekend?

    Where does it line-up in the cycling theory? I believe it is December 27-30th?

    And should we expect a winnowing down of the possibility of storm as we get closer to the date?

    Remind me of what happened in December…if you don’t mind?

    • Three7s February 6, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

      If it’s the New Year’s part of the pattern, I wouldn’t expect anything. Certainly not the bonafide snowstorm it showed on the 12z GFS or the ice that was showing up before that. It’ll weaken and come into line with the LRC as we get towards Friday.

      • Terry February 6, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

        We just have to wake me see we don’t know

        • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

          Wake me??

    • Richard February 6, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

      This Saturday Feb 10 would be 47 days from Christmas Day. Or 46 from the Christmas Eve snow.
      So, it is in cycle range.

      I like to use this site for calculating dates. You can add or subtract. It has drop down calendar dates.
      There are a lot of useful tools on there.

      https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html

  46. Bsmike February 6, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    Umm nothing happened !!

  47. Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

    Crippling ice storm this wknd!

    • Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

      Just having some fun on here. Dont bash me..lol

      • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

        Are you trolling?? ☺

  48. Steve February 6, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    People, People, People. Wow.

  49. Bill in Lawrence February 6, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

    Gary:
    Happy chilly February Tuesday afternoon to you sir.

    Well I may not get an accumulating snow today, but as I look out my window I have 2 inches of snow on the ground and a temperature of 17 degrees; (ironically many on here in early December said we would never have a low lower than 17 degrees and yet today it is the high and I have had 3 days with highs in the single digits….go figure….but I digress.) I am now in my third day with a high below freezing ( I dropped to 28 Saturday night before midnight) had two days last week with the high below freezing and have had 2 nights in the last week with lows in the single digits and with 2 inches of snow…all in the past 9 days….sounds like a pretty decent winter stretch when you live south of the 39th parallel. Combine that with December 18-January 18th time frame and it has been pretty darned wintery around here. Have we had a big snow…nope…but to say this winter has been a non-winter I think is to put too much weight on just snow depth.

    Tough day on the blog….a few random thoughts….

    I must respectfully disagree with the over the top criticisms of Gary on this snow event. First of all Gary never said this storm would for sure produce nor did he waver from the LRC. I guess it is not allowed to think out loud on the blog and give all the different options to a particular wave coming across the plains. That is all he was doing…saying if this were to happen then this could happen…but if this happens then this will happen. I consider myself lucky that I can come to a blog and read what the meteorologist is thinking and why he/she is thinking that. Every time Gary discussed the possibilities of this wave having a twist, he would always have the caveat of remembering what happened in December and what has happened to all of these waves in the LRC. In the end today he clearly stated he should have stuck with what his thoughts were from Thursday.

    I also do not disagree with the fact that he gave credence to the possibility of this wave being a bit stronger. The wave had already produced twice so it was a decent candidate to have a “twist”. Furthermore, you can’t just dismiss the models out of hand…if that were the case then you should have crash and burned on the Christmas Eve Blizzard in 2009 because it was a pretty weak wave in cycle 1 or defended to the death that there would be a blizzard in February of 2010. One can’t just dismiss the models in their entirety. There was ample evidence form several runs of different models that this wave was going to produce a decent band of snow somewhere around the KC area….you have to take that into account and discuss it in the a forecast discussion which is exactly what Gary did. I just do not see the problem with that.

    On a different note, Like Gary in this blog, I am here to eat my own crow. Unless we have a miracle tonight it looks as though my 1-2 inch with a 30% chance of it having a twist is in serious jeopardy. Considering that I can see the clearing line just to my south gives even more indication that I may not even see a flake, which if it does indeed occur, will be a twist. This wave has produced twice already and so to only have a few flakes fly is a twist from the past 2 cycles.
    That said, I will stick by the ideas behind my call. There can be “twists” in a wave…history has proven that. It does not in any way diminish the LRC…the wave is there right on schedule and you should mainly follow the idea that it will behave pretty much the same from cycle to cycle but you have to be open to the idea that even within the same season, a wave a can have a twist and produce differently. I’ll go out on a big limb right now and say there is still at least a 30% chance that one of the remaining waves in cycle 3 (20% chance for cycle 4) will produce a decent winter event of either 3 plus inches of snow….2-3 inches of sleet…or .20-.50 of ice. Which means I still am sticking to 13-15 inches for Lawrence….I am currently at around 8 inches of frozen precip (with 1.30 of qpf since December 18th) so I have to get 5-6 more inches between now and April 1st. The second round of crow and the clown suit is all ready to go!!!

    Okay…flame away at me as you will and call me a lackey….it is fine…we can agree to disagree. I just don’t see what Gary did wrong here to warrant the over the top criticism today; to each their own I guess. I also will stick by that this LRC has produced a pretty decent but on the dry side winter. As I said yesterday, if I had posted a forecast on December 6th that said parts of Clinton Lake would be going on their 7th week of being fully iced over; that people had been ice skating off the dam of Clinton; that people were ice fishing on Clinton; that I would have 4 nights below 0; have several days with highs below freezing and 6 frozen precip. events all by February 6th I would have been laughed off the blog. So in my humble opinion, for a person who likes snow and rather enjoys working outside in winter I think this has been a very good winter so far. Would I have liked more snow…of course….but I have also enjoyed walking/running/splitting wood in the cold temperatures.

    Have a great afternoon everyone….

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    P.S.: I have to give a shout out to the NAM….it has been wrong some this winter but it sniffed this out from when the wave first hit hour 84

    • Richard February 6, 2018 at 4:19 pm - Reply

      Thanks Bill.
      Always appreciate your analysis.

  50. Rhonda February 6, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    I read this blog every day. You have opened it up for free, which I have appreciated until today. Please go back to making a small fee to participate. I’ll gladly pay that small fee so I can read comments by actual weather enthusiasts and no trolls.

    • LSDoc February 6, 2018 at 9:55 pm - Reply

      I’m with Rhonda. 75% of these comments contribute nothing to this blog. Just trolls…UGH

  51. Jsquibble February 6, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

    Looks like the snow is tracking further north than the models predicted. Good thing i wasn’t banking on a snow day tomorrow lol

  52. Kurt February 6, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    So, we are in a winter weather advisory, snow was to start at 2:00 but based on radar returns still lifting northeast away from most of St. Joseph. This may change in the next hour, but St. Joseph already put phase 2 of snow ordinance into effect at 5:00 p.m. for no snow yet??? Also cancelled all evening school activities and most districts in the area dismissed early.

    What the heck, I know that it can get bad quickly but wow we are playing it sooo cautious now. You’d think we never got winter weather up here.

    • Troy Newman February 6, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

      I don’t get the cancellations anymore either. When I was a kid it took 6″ of snow and wind to call off anything or a bunch of ice. Now if its cold we call off school. They are having it here today with about a 2″ snow so far so they are toughing it out I guess. Maybe they just figuring it saves on the budget not to have it?

    • KS Jones February 6, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

      i don’t know anout the suburbs, but it probably wouldn’t take much snow in the downtown areas of St. Joe to make the streets dangerous. I was in St. Joe three times last year and spent about 8 hours there each time. I spent two full hours in the autumn just driving around on those steep, winding, forested goat paths you call streets. The streets were so full of leaves I could barely see the pavement. I loved it. Every time I’m there I think of what the Disney Corporation could do with that town. The first thing I would do is bring these back into action.
      http://www.stjosephmemorylane.com/trolley/trolley.html

  53. KS Jones February 6, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    Started getting light snow with a slight NE breeze at 1:25 PM. The snowfall remains light, but the flakes are fairly large, so now our walkways are covered. The county road grader scraped Sunday’s two inches away yesterday, but now the road is white again too.
    Radar shows we are getting clipped by the south side of the leading edge as it drifts ENE, but we might get heavier action if the tail-end on the Colorado border grows larger.
    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

  54. Richard February 6, 2018 at 2:49 pm - Reply

    This Saturday (storm ?) Feb 10 would be 47 days from Christmas Day. Or 46 from the Christmas Eve snow.
    So, it is in cycle range.

    I like to use this site for calculating dates. You can add or subtract. It has drop down calendar dates.
    There are a lot of useful tools on there.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html

    • Troy Newman February 6, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

      thanks

  55. Adam February 6, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    The 12z Euro came around more toward the GFS for this weekend.

    But again, we all know what these models do 5 days out.

    • Heat Miser February 6, 2018 at 4:51 pm - Reply

      why are you still here….I thought you said Gary was posting garbage.

  56. Richard February 6, 2018 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    NWS is really taking heat on their facebook post from 15 min ago. It says we get less than an inch, St. Joe barely in the 2-3 range.
    Some ppl are not happy at all that they are getting less snow than was forecast.
    Hey, you comment on a public page it gets seen by everyone.

    “Schools let out early, everyone in panic mode, and not one flake here in St Joe. Lol well maybe some but not in form of snow”
    “Forecasts were much better 20 years ago. Whats the problem? Should have it down to the minute by now”

    https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/1536259516428686

    • Jsquibble February 6, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

      I think all the weather folks missed today’s forecast. None of them got it right today nor Sunday but you would assume with the tons of money spent on models it would be better at predicting the weather by now

      • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        Agreed. Missed by almost all.

  57. Richard February 6, 2018 at 3:26 pm - Reply

    Gary and Jeff facebook live now !

  58. Richard February 6, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

    Lol
    Oh no
    On Facebook live just now Jeff Penner laughed and said “One model shows, guess what, 3 inches for Saturday ! Just like it showed for today 2 days ago !”

    Lol ! And the model merry-go-round keeps on going.

    Weather is full of twists and turns and round-abouts. Much like life !

  59. Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 3:44 pm - Reply

    Ha.

    I just watched Gary’s FB video from last night — around the 9pm hour — less than 20 hours ago.

    https://www.facebook.com/kshbtv/videos/10155182211766190/?comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D

    He said at least a dusting was a “slam dunk” and at least 1-2″. He’ll be “shocked” if it’s just a dusting. 1-2″. 1-2″.

    The model that had only a dusting to an inch, he said he didn’t believe…it was too low. No snow day today (Tuesday), “but maybe Wednesday.”

    The whole video is worth a watch…pretty entertaining.

    • Richard February 6, 2018 at 4:18 pm - Reply

      Old news. Let it go.

  60. Richard February 6, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

    Gary might be feeling the next 5 weeks coming on.
    He said he will be working the next 5 Sunday nights. 6 day work weeks for 5 wks.
    Is Gerard leaving ??

    • Snowflake February 6, 2018 at 3:55 pm - Reply

      No way the dude works 6 days a week for five weeks. He rarely works a single full week, much less five 6-day weeks in a row. He’s the chief.

      • Richard February 6, 2018 at 4:15 pm - Reply

        Let it go flake.
        I was only saying the guy has a lot coming up.
        I appreciate Gary, I would not want his job. At all.
        He is getting too much flack for doing his job.
        I contributed to it.
        Not any more. No more.

  61. weatherjaded February 6, 2018 at 3:58 pm - Reply

    He’s working Sunday’s because of the Olympics. Its ratings time.

    • Richard February 6, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

      Wrong
      Not for ratings.

      • weatherjaded February 6, 2018 at 4:32 pm - Reply

        How do you figure its not for ratings? February is also tv news “sweeps” month.

      • Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

        WeatherJaded is correct. Thanksgiving and the Olympics timeframe are Sweeps period for everyone. Ratings are why he’s going to be on all the time.

  62. Morgan February 6, 2018 at 4:11 pm - Reply

    The GFS playing with our emotions again for the weekend storm.

  63. Jack February 6, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    Right now the trend is good for snow lovers for Saturday’s storm…. wish i was saying that 36 hours before it was happening and 100 hours.

    • Fred Nolan February 6, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

      Edit: “Right now the trend is good for snow lovers for Saturday’s storm…. wish i was saying that 24 hours before it was happening”

      • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

        dude…how many billions of times do you have to see that the models cant predict storms that far out…omg…do you never learn.

  64. Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    It will happen. Im drivin in thur -sun. Most likely screw up my kid free wknd!

  65. Matt February 6, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

    Hey, just know whatever the forecast is today (5 days out) is his actual prediction. Ignore everything going forward.

    • JoeK February 6, 2018 at 5:31 pm - Reply

      Matt,

      That is not what he stated nor the point he was making.

  66. Mark February 6, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    I don’t understand all the people who are just dying for snow. Move farther north like Minnesota or Canada! We’re in the middle of the country here! We still get winter weather here but not anywhere near as much as other places.

    Also, stop and think about all the people who don’t WANT snow for whom they have to drive on snow/ice, people who don’t get paid vacation time, truckers, etc. Every time KC gets even an inch of snow, there are accidents all over the roads. You can’t control whether or not snow happens so just let it go and enjoy life. As my parents always taught me: “Never have a goal that someone else can block.”

    • Mark February 6, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

      Because it is winter, and they like snow. If people don’t want snow, let them move farther south.

      • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 6:36 pm - Reply

        It’s real simple, if you don’t like snow, move to Kansas City…..

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 6:11 pm - Reply

      Then those people don’t want snow…some do some don’t…that’s just fine. Wanting snow doesn’t make it happen dude. This is a weather blog…people want to see interesting weather. Theres nothing wrong with liking snow or wanting it to snow, nor is there with not wanting snow. I don’t get your point at all.

    • weatherjaded February 6, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

      “Never have a goal that someone else can block?” You need to elaborate. That makes very little sense at all. But, especially in the context of what you are saying. Weather isn’t something that can ever be controlled and therefore be considered a goal. And as far as life go, that’s the point of goals. To work and accomplish something. Goals conflict with other peoples goals all the time. That’s part of overcoming and achieving. The Eagles had a goal to win a Super Bowl and so did the Patriots and every other team. The Eagles blocked every one else’s goal. That same thing happens in every facet of life.

      • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

        Very true.

  67. sedsinkc February 6, 2018 at 6:35 pm - Reply

    Wow, the supposed biggest snow of the season today poofed…as I thought it would, writing here 3 days ago. At least the snow lovers got their treat Sunday. The blog has been entertaining today. I don’t buy the LRC hook line and sinker, but there is something to weather patterns and their persistence and recurrence. The writing for this winter was in ink months ago and it’s performed as expected (by me at least). Waiting for Saturday’s model storm to fizzle in the coming days as well.

    • HEAT MISER February 6, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

      its just lazy dude…the storm a few days unpoofed and came outta nowhere…hard to predict snow in KC, you have no more idea than anyone else what happen. Just saying poof all the time is easy and lazy.

      • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 8:02 pm - Reply

        Heat, I hate to tell you this, but we are getting your storm here in Iowa, right on schedule with the LRC. Could have 6 inches on the ground here by tomorrow morning. No poof here..

        • Gary February 6, 2018 at 8:08 pm - Reply

          It is truly ridiculous. Explaining radar right now is baffling. The echoes on NEXRAD Topeka fell apart. The echoes on NEXRAD Pleasant Hill are increasing. The low clouds are trying to move in. That band of snow is trying to grow. And, the snow is heavy and entering the KC metro counties of Platte and Leavenworth. It is this close, and yet so many think we were wrong. Iowa was NOT in the target for this storm. KC was, but it just needed to be slightly stronger, literally so close. The next hour will be interesting. A new band may form right over KC or just southeast which would be cruel.

          Gary

          • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

            They had a storm here in Iowa almost 47 days ago, 5 or 6 inches if I remember right. Right on schedule with the LRC. Close to the same location too.

  68. SomeGuy February 6, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

    Watching radar right now…you kinda just have to laugh. Right? Us here on the blog have such a unique opportunity to be clued in and informed ahead of the masses thanks to a considerate Meteorologist, let alone a respected one at that. How cool! What I love about this part of the county…is that us enthusiasts, always have a spectacular series of events. I mean, did anyone actually go outside and look at the sky today?! The clouds were so fascinating, it was truly a beautiful display of winter mischief in the sky. Apply a little bit of understanding of what’s going on (MUCH IN THANKS TO THIS BLOG) up there and all of the sudden you have a moment where you’re thinking “wow this is still super exciting because ‘if and only if this storm could get its act together!…’ we could actually see some white stuff start falling. Meanwhile up near the boarder, the storm is full steam ahead! Look into the sky and imagine! I don’t envy the responsibilities of a meterologist in this part of the country but I sure appreciate the opportunity to interact in a community with LIKE MINDED people. Right? We all live for the next hype that Gary gets us excited for. Thanks again, Gary! These plot “twists” to these storms are why I love knowing the science behind weather. Let’s just chalk this one up to another geographical happenstance because nothing else coulda changed the outcome! Most importantly, who’s ready for spring? Eh!? 😎

    • Gary February 6, 2018 at 6:45 pm - Reply

      Thank you SomeGuy! The storm is in our viewing area for crying out loud. Your statement made me smile! So much negativity. Now, let’s track this trailing band of snow. Will new echoes form? We need them to.

      Gary

  69. Bsmike February 6, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

    And just think we are anxiously awaiting a tail end of a 30 min snow if that to come through and we’re all excited 😊 to see if it happens. That’s how low our snow standards have become. You just have to brush it off and take it as a grain of salt !!! Here’s to Saturday 🥂

    • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      By the time the sun rises, I could have 5 or 6 inches of snow on the ground. Thanks KC for pushing the storm north.

      • Richard February 6, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

        Bluetooth are you in Iowa ?

        • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 7:51 pm - Reply

          Yes. Southeastern part.

        • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 7:54 pm - Reply

          When we were in the Philippines late last year around Christmas, they received 5 or 6 inches here and I think this storm lines up with that one time wise, 46 or47 days.

          • Richard February 6, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

            It will be 47 days on Saturday, since our Christmas Eve snow.
            Not sure if SE Iowa got the same snow event, but probably did.

      • Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

        Ouch!

    • Laurie February 6, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

      Yes, We are all anxiously awaiting like little kids on Xmas morning over a dusting if anything . Oh please Sat be different 😞

  70. Michel Casteel February 6, 2018 at 6:57 pm - Reply

    I got about an inch and a half of snow up here in Maryville coming down without any wind very pretty!
    Michael

    • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 7:15 pm - Reply

      How much snow are you expecting there?

      • Michel Casteel February 6, 2018 at 8:22 pm - Reply

        Just measured a little over two inches and still coming down. My guess would be three when all said and done. Bobcats finally get started up again. They been lonely! Lol!
        Michael

        • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 9:24 pm - Reply

          We may get another 4 plus the 2 from last night.

  71. Steve February 6, 2018 at 7:15 pm - Reply

    Live SWW of Hiawatha about 12 miles south of Nebraska line and the radar from noon till 5pm showed snow. But guess what. It wasn’t making it to the ground. A dry layer was soaking it up before that! Couldn’t believe it. @ about 5:30 flurries started and as of right now I probably have a inch on the ground and it is snowing peacefully light. Probably will end up with 1.5″. You can’t get what the atmosphere won’t let happen.

    • Richard February 6, 2018 at 7:40 pm - Reply

      Hiya Watha ! 😄
      One of my fav mets. Don Harman used to say it that way. R.I.P. Don

      I have only been up there one time. Wife wanted to see the Davis memorial.
      That was quite something.

      Hope you get a nice snow up there Steve !

  72. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

    Jealous of y’all up north! Not particularly jealous of the clean up though 😜 and Gary….”someguy” couldn’t have said what he did any better. Awesome comment amongst the craziness of this blog the past couple days. I know he spoke for quite a few of us on here, but thank you again Gary for the time and effort you put into this blog day in and day out. One day maybe the troll population will become extinct, but until then all we can do is skim over their comments and not give them the time of day.. they hate that 😉

    • Steve February 6, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      Amen! Weather Channel in St Joe. Mo. right now.

    • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 7:31 pm - Reply

      Philip, probably 6 inches on the ground here by tomorrowmorning. Thanks KC for the storm…..

  73. Heavysnow February 6, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

    Currently, partly cloudy in good old St Louis area…..on a day they have been predicting snow for about a week. We are somehow under a Winter Weather Advisory until 6am. How is it in today’s technology forecasts keep getting worse? This is pretty pathetic

    • Emaw February 6, 2018 at 7:41 pm - Reply

      Heavysnow, are you serious? Most of KC metro probably won’t even see a flake! This system shouldn’t even have been discussed in STL today.

      • Heavysnow February 6, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

        Computer models were showing snow in St Louis as well

  74. Richard February 6, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

    KC caught lightning in a bottle on Sunday. Think about it.
    It was fun to watch. Like being in a snowglobe.
    That small little storm threaded its way into the KC metro.
    I still smile thinking about it.
    And winter has been winter, temperature-wise.
    And we have had white on the ground a good chunk of it, rather than looking at brown.
    I thnk this has been more of a winter compared to last year.

    And thanks to Gary we have a place to come and see others opinions and explanations.

    Thanks Gary

  75. REAL HUMEDUDE February 6, 2018 at 7:38 pm - Reply

    You guys are bashing Gary and every other met, all over if .1″ of liquid precip falls or not. It’s not the Blown forecast of the century, it was never going to be Alot of liquid so it’s no big deal people. 1″ of snow could be as little as a few hundredths of actual precip, see how hard that is to forecast? Let’s hope the next storm acts a little different as we get closer and closer to Spring I am thinking the storms will start showing seasonal variations, and begin producing around here!

  76. SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    Storm (tail) rapidly approaching KC area. 😳

    • Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

      Looks like it’s gonna hit KCI and swing north. KC gets missed

      • Glennkw February 6, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

        Nothing in Platte city at 9:15

    • Phillip February 6, 2018 at 8:13 pm - Reply

      Turn over on downs. Turn on the lights the parties over. Until this weekend. When the fat lady will most likely be singing Friday evening with the models

      • Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 8:26 pm - Reply

        I wouldn’t buy any solution for Saturday until Friday afternoon at the earliest based on how poorly models have done with these bands of snow.

        • Emaw February 6, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

          Weatherman, your comment reeks of common sense, tread lightly with that here. Are you by chance kumke from past blogs?

          • Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

            Yeah. Still alive somehow

        • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 9:07 pm - Reply

          Based on the trend, come Saturday, it’ll be here in Iowa again, just like tonight. We may hit the 20 inches for the season at this rate.

  77. Dan Lester February 6, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    Everybody taking this stuff so seriously. It is JUST weather, not life or death. Lambaste people over lack of human decency, not blown weather forecasts dependent upon Mother Nature.

  78. Wx Amateur February 6, 2018 at 8:01 pm - Reply

    I think we’re goig to get this Saturday based off of how bad my knee hurts….

  79. Kurt February 6, 2018 at 8:45 pm - Reply

    Why is the weather channel in St Joseph? The snow stopped here just south of St Joseph around 6:30. Radar looks like we should be in the thick of it since about 7:15 but must be all aloft and battling dry air.

    I’m so confused how everyone reacted to a nuisance snow like we haven’t had snow in 10 years. We’re getting worse than a Deep South state.

    • Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

      I think they were in kc until they realized there was no story there so they headed up 29😂 for the flurry storm

      • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

        They will probably end up here in Iowa before it’s all said and done…. and if we could snag that weekend storm to the north as well, we could be in business.

  80. Kurt February 6, 2018 at 9:07 pm - Reply

    And the school district cancelled school for Wednesday. WTF, I can’t believe how this city responds to an inch of snow like we got a foot lol

    • Glennkw February 6, 2018 at 9:09 pm - Reply

      Where are you at?

    • Bluetooth February 6, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

      Kurt, I thought you would have gotten more than an inch there.

  81. Emaw February 6, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

    Dusting chasers!

  82. Michel Casteel February 6, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    Little over two inches up here in Maryville. Radar looks like it’s about done. Better than nothing!
    Michael

  83. choppy February 6, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

    Glad I put the plow on this morning. Classic jinx….

  84. Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 9:28 pm - Reply

    Bt, u appear to b in the sweet spot. Sat snow has been lookin likely for ya too!

    • Bluetooth February 7, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

      I’m feeling good about that one moving north as well.

  85. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 9:39 pm - Reply

    Just for 💩’s and grins can someone post a model for this weekend?

  86. Melanie February 6, 2018 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    Why are they salting the roads in Shawnee?

  87. Ryan February 6, 2018 at 10:55 pm - Reply

    I think we all get frustrated when the Snow doesn’t come into fruition but what a unique and awesome resource we have here at w2020. Thanks Gary!

  88. Rockdoc February 6, 2018 at 11:00 pm - Reply

    I haven’t posted on the blog lately due to always being put in mod. I came back to visit to see all the hair pulling excitement over the snow-maybe snow-non snow event. You have not dissapointed. Rather than discuss the technicals, which is rarely done on this blog, it turns into a major bitch session. I for one would like to see a disection of the technicals (surface low/ULL, vorticity, moisture at different levels) over the last few days to see what happened and why it fell apart. If you really want to learn about weather you need to see and understand the changes over time in 3D. I think that there should be more technical presentation and discussion included that can support the LRC or show when the LRC doesn’t work and why. Until then, this blog is nothing more than a kavetch site with no real meaningful discussion on weather. Carry on.

    • Mr. Pete February 6, 2018 at 11:39 pm - Reply

      Are you still in mod?

    • SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 11:54 pm - Reply

      Rock doc
      Hmmmm? You must mean “kvetch”?
      This is a public blog for everyone. Perhaps you should attend a metrology seminar to obtain information you want.
      We’re mostly standard Joe’s here discussing weather, building friendships, interacting with a public figure (Gary) and having a little fun with the weather predictions. That’s all. This is not a disposition on the weather, yet?

  89. Nick February 6, 2018 at 11:39 pm - Reply

    Well it really came down for a couple of hours here in St. Joe, looks like close to 2 inches, I will say that with the cold air, that even though the snow hasn’t piled up much this winter, we have had it around for a decent period of time, I did get a kick out of them letting school out early this afternoon and the snow didn’t start until school would have been over anyway( must have not realized that first band was all virga). and we do have some snow on top of snow as well from the heavy dusting we got on Sunday. So feeling pretty good in St. Joe considering. 🙂

  90. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 11:53 pm - Reply

    Rockdoc I agree. Not very weather savvy myself so I don’t know how to use the models all that well. For sure miss the days when we had kcchamps and you and a few others who actually brought something to this blog

    • SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 11:56 pm - Reply

      KcChamps was awesome !!!!

  91. Mr. Pete February 6, 2018 at 11:58 pm - Reply

    What is kvetch?

  92. SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 11:59 pm - Reply

    People that complain

  93. SnowCommander February 7, 2018 at 12:09 am - Reply

    Champs may not know this site is free now? I myself didn’t know for a few years. Someone should post on 41 blog ISO KcChamps. He might still be around.

  94. Muckleshoot February 7, 2018 at 5:15 am - Reply

    Go outside and look if it’s snowing it’s snowing 🖕if your wet it’s rain5💩

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