The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

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Good afternoon bloggers,

The new data is in, and there is still a chance of a dusting to 2″ near KC, but most likely nothing to a dusting is the better forecast.  We know this five days ago. Watch this video, and read the previous blog for more details.

Video Showing The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago:

Have a great day. We will be tracking any snow developments this afternoon and evening.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. This winter season has produced many small chances, and many have come through. Maybe we will still get a little snow accumulation tonight.

Gary

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BluetoothMuckleshootSnowCommanderMr. PetePhillip Recent comment authors
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Muckleshoot
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Muckleshoot

Go outside and look if it’s snowing it’s snowing 🖕if your wet it’s rain5💩

SnowCommander
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SnowCommander

Champs may not know this site is free now? I myself didn’t know for a few years. Someone should post on 41 blog ISO KcChamps. He might still be around.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

People that complain

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What is kvetch?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Rockdoc I agree. Not very weather savvy myself so I don’t know how to use the models all that well. For sure miss the days when we had kcchamps and you and a few others who actually brought something to this blog

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

KcChamps was awesome !!!!

Nick
Guest
Nick

Well it really came down for a couple of hours here in St. Joe, looks like close to 2 inches, I will say that with the cold air, that even though the snow hasn’t piled up much this winter, we have had it around for a decent period of time, I did get a kick out of them letting school out early this afternoon and the snow didn’t start until school would have been over anyway( must have not realized that first band was all virga). and we do have some snow on top of snow as well from the… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I haven’t posted on the blog lately due to always being put in mod. I came back to visit to see all the hair pulling excitement over the snow-maybe snow-non snow event. You have not dissapointed. Rather than discuss the technicals, which is rarely done on this blog, it turns into a major bitch session. I for one would like to see a disection of the technicals (surface low/ULL, vorticity, moisture at different levels) over the last few days to see what happened and why it fell apart. If you really want to learn about weather you need to see… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Are you still in mod?

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Rock doc
Hmmmm? You must mean “kvetch”?
This is a public blog for everyone. Perhaps you should attend a metrology seminar to obtain information you want.
We’re mostly standard Joe’s here discussing weather, building friendships, interacting with a public figure (Gary) and having a little fun with the weather predictions. That’s all. This is not a disposition on the weather, yet?

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I think we all get frustrated when the Snow doesn’t come into fruition but what a unique and awesome resource we have here at w2020. Thanks Gary!

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Why are they salting the roads in Shawnee?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Just for 💩’s and grins can someone post a model for this weekend?

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Bt, u appear to b in the sweet spot. Sat snow has been lookin likely for ya too!

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

I’m feeling good about that one moving north as well.

choppy
Guest
choppy

Glad I put the plow on this morning. Classic jinx….

Michel Casteel
Guest
Michel Casteel

Little over two inches up here in Maryville. Radar looks like it’s about done. Better than nothing!
Michael

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Dusting chasers!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

And the school district cancelled school for Wednesday. WTF, I can’t believe how this city responds to an inch of snow like we got a foot lol

Glennkw
Guest
Glennkw

Where are you at?

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Kurt, I thought you would have gotten more than an inch there.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Why is the weather channel in St Joseph? The snow stopped here just south of St Joseph around 6:30. Radar looks like we should be in the thick of it since about 7:15 but must be all aloft and battling dry air.

I’m so confused how everyone reacted to a nuisance snow like we haven’t had snow in 10 years. We’re getting worse than a Deep South state.

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

I think they were in kc until they realized there was no story there so they headed up 29😂 for the flurry storm

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

They will probably end up here in Iowa before it’s all said and done…. and if we could snag that weekend storm to the north as well, we could be in business.

Wx Amateur
Guest
Wx Amateur

I think we’re goig to get this Saturday based off of how bad my knee hurts….

Dan Lester
Guest
Dan Lester

Everybody taking this stuff so seriously. It is JUST weather, not life or death. Lambaste people over lack of human decency, not blown weather forecasts dependent upon Mother Nature.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Storm (tail) rapidly approaching KC area. 😳

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Looks like it’s gonna hit KCI and swing north. KC gets missed

Glennkw
Guest
Glennkw

Nothing in Platte city at 9:15

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Turn over on downs. Turn on the lights the parties over. Until this weekend. When the fat lady will most likely be singing Friday evening with the models

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

I wouldn’t buy any solution for Saturday until Friday afternoon at the earliest based on how poorly models have done with these bands of snow.

Emaw
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Emaw

Weatherman, your comment reeks of common sense, tread lightly with that here. Are you by chance kumke from past blogs?

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

Yeah. Still alive somehow

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Based on the trend, come Saturday, it’ll be here in Iowa again, just like tonight. We may hit the 20 inches for the season at this rate.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You guys are bashing Gary and every other met, all over if .1″ of liquid precip falls or not. It’s not the Blown forecast of the century, it was never going to be Alot of liquid so it’s no big deal people. 1″ of snow could be as little as a few hundredths of actual precip, see how hard that is to forecast? Let’s hope the next storm acts a little different as we get closer and closer to Spring I am thinking the storms will start showing seasonal variations, and begin producing around here!

Richard
Guest
Richard

KC caught lightning in a bottle on Sunday. Think about it.
It was fun to watch. Like being in a snowglobe.
That small little storm threaded its way into the KC metro.
I still smile thinking about it.
And winter has been winter, temperature-wise.
And we have had white on the ground a good chunk of it, rather than looking at brown.
I thnk this has been more of a winter compared to last year.

And thanks to Gary we have a place to come and see others opinions and explanations.

Thanks Gary

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

Currently, partly cloudy in good old St Louis area…..on a day they have been predicting snow for about a week. We are somehow under a Winter Weather Advisory until 6am. How is it in today’s technology forecasts keep getting worse? This is pretty pathetic

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Heavysnow, are you serious? Most of KC metro probably won’t even see a flake! This system shouldn’t even have been discussed in STL today.

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

Computer models were showing snow in St Louis as well

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Jealous of y’all up north! Not particularly jealous of the clean up though 😜 and Gary….”someguy” couldn’t have said what he did any better. Awesome comment amongst the craziness of this blog the past couple days. I know he spoke for quite a few of us on here, but thank you again Gary for the time and effort you put into this blog day in and day out. One day maybe the troll population will become extinct, but until then all we can do is skim over their comments and not give them the time of day.. they hate that… Read more »

Steve
Guest
Steve

Amen! Weather Channel in St Joe. Mo. right now.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Philip, probably 6 inches on the ground here by tomorrowmorning. Thanks KC for the storm…..

Steve
Guest
Steve

Live SWW of Hiawatha about 12 miles south of Nebraska line and the radar from noon till 5pm showed snow. But guess what. It wasn’t making it to the ground. A dry layer was soaking it up before that! Couldn’t believe it. @ about 5:30 flurries started and as of right now I probably have a inch on the ground and it is snowing peacefully light. Probably will end up with 1.5″. You can’t get what the atmosphere won’t let happen.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Hiya Watha ! 😄
One of my fav mets. Don Harman used to say it that way. R.I.P. Don

I have only been up there one time. Wife wanted to see the Davis memorial.
That was quite something.

Hope you get a nice snow up there Steve !

Michel Casteel
Guest
Michel Casteel

I got about an inch and a half of snow up here in Maryville coming down without any wind very pretty!
Michael

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

How much snow are you expecting there?

Michel Casteel
Guest
Michel Casteel

Just measured a little over two inches and still coming down. My guess would be three when all said and done. Bobcats finally get started up again. They been lonely! Lol!
Michael

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

We may get another 4 plus the 2 from last night.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

And just think we are anxiously awaiting a tail end of a 30 min snow if that to come through and we’re all excited 😊 to see if it happens. That’s how low our snow standards have become. You just have to brush it off and take it as a grain of salt !!! Here’s to Saturday 🥂

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

By the time the sun rises, I could have 5 or 6 inches of snow on the ground. Thanks KC for pushing the storm north.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Bluetooth are you in Iowa ?

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Yes. Southeastern part.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

When we were in the Philippines late last year around Christmas, they received 5 or 6 inches here and I think this storm lines up with that one time wise, 46 or47 days.

Richard
Guest
Richard

It will be 47 days on Saturday, since our Christmas Eve snow.
Not sure if SE Iowa got the same snow event, but probably did.

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Ouch!

Laurie
Guest
Laurie

Yes, We are all anxiously awaiting like little kids on Xmas morning over a dusting if anything . Oh please Sat be different 😞

SomeGuy
Guest
SomeGuy

Watching radar right now…you kinda just have to laugh. Right? Us here on the blog have such a unique opportunity to be clued in and informed ahead of the masses thanks to a considerate Meteorologist, let alone a respected one at that. How cool! What I love about this part of the county…is that us enthusiasts, always have a spectacular series of events. I mean, did anyone actually go outside and look at the sky today?! The clouds were so fascinating, it was truly a beautiful display of winter mischief in the sky. Apply a little bit of understanding of… Read more »

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Wow, the supposed biggest snow of the season today poofed…as I thought it would, writing here 3 days ago. At least the snow lovers got their treat Sunday. The blog has been entertaining today. I don’t buy the LRC hook line and sinker, but there is something to weather patterns and their persistence and recurrence. The writing for this winter was in ink months ago and it’s performed as expected (by me at least). Waiting for Saturday’s model storm to fizzle in the coming days as well.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

its just lazy dude…the storm a few days unpoofed and came outta nowhere…hard to predict snow in KC, you have no more idea than anyone else what happen. Just saying poof all the time is easy and lazy.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Heat, I hate to tell you this, but we are getting your storm here in Iowa, right on schedule with the LRC. Could have 6 inches on the ground here by tomorrow morning. No poof here..

Mark
Guest
Mark

I don’t understand all the people who are just dying for snow. Move farther north like Minnesota or Canada! We’re in the middle of the country here! We still get winter weather here but not anywhere near as much as other places. Also, stop and think about all the people who don’t WANT snow for whom they have to drive on snow/ice, people who don’t get paid vacation time, truckers, etc. Every time KC gets even an inch of snow, there are accidents all over the roads. You can’t control whether or not snow happens so just let it go… Read more »

Mark
Guest
Mark

Because it is winter, and they like snow. If people don’t want snow, let them move farther south.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

It’s real simple, if you don’t like snow, move to Kansas City…..

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Then those people don’t want snow…some do some don’t…that’s just fine. Wanting snow doesn’t make it happen dude. This is a weather blog…people want to see interesting weather. Theres nothing wrong with liking snow or wanting it to snow, nor is there with not wanting snow. I don’t get your point at all.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

“Never have a goal that someone else can block?” You need to elaborate. That makes very little sense at all. But, especially in the context of what you are saying. Weather isn’t something that can ever be controlled and therefore be considered a goal. And as far as life go, that’s the point of goals. To work and accomplish something. Goals conflict with other peoples goals all the time. That’s part of overcoming and achieving. The Eagles had a goal to win a Super Bowl and so did the Patriots and every other team. The Eagles blocked every one else’s… Read more »

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Very true.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Hey, just know whatever the forecast is today (5 days out) is his actual prediction. Ignore everything going forward.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Matt,

That is not what he stated nor the point he was making.

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

It will happen. Im drivin in thur -sun. Most likely screw up my kid free wknd!

Jack
Guest
Jack

Right now the trend is good for snow lovers for Saturday’s storm…. wish i was saying that 36 hours before it was happening and 100 hours.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Edit: “Right now the trend is good for snow lovers for Saturday’s storm…. wish i was saying that 24 hours before it was happening”

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

dude…how many billions of times do you have to see that the models cant predict storms that far out…omg…do you never learn.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The GFS playing with our emotions again for the weekend storm.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

He’s working Sunday’s because of the Olympics. Its ratings time.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Wrong
Not for ratings.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

How do you figure its not for ratings? February is also tv news “sweeps” month.

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

WeatherJaded is correct. Thanksgiving and the Olympics timeframe are Sweeps period for everyone. Ratings are why he’s going to be on all the time.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary might be feeling the next 5 weeks coming on.
He said he will be working the next 5 Sunday nights. 6 day work weeks for 5 wks.
Is Gerard leaving ??

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

No way the dude works 6 days a week for five weeks. He rarely works a single full week, much less five 6-day weeks in a row. He’s the chief.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Let it go flake.
I was only saying the guy has a lot coming up.
I appreciate Gary, I would not want his job. At all.
He is getting too much flack for doing his job.
I contributed to it.
Not any more. No more.

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Ha.

I just watched Gary’s FB video from last night — around the 9pm hour — less than 20 hours ago.

https://www.facebook.com/kshbtv/videos/10155182211766190/?comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D

He said at least a dusting was a “slam dunk” and at least 1-2″. He’ll be “shocked” if it’s just a dusting. 1-2″. 1-2″.

The model that had only a dusting to an inch, he said he didn’t believe…it was too low. No snow day today (Tuesday), “but maybe Wednesday.”

The whole video is worth a watch…pretty entertaining.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Old news. Let it go.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Lol
Oh no
On Facebook live just now Jeff Penner laughed and said “One model shows, guess what, 3 inches for Saturday ! Just like it showed for today 2 days ago !”

Lol ! And the model merry-go-round keeps on going.

Weather is full of twists and turns and round-abouts. Much like life !

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary and Jeff facebook live now !

Richard
Guest
Richard

NWS is really taking heat on their facebook post from 15 min ago. It says we get less than an inch, St. Joe barely in the 2-3 range. Some ppl are not happy at all that they are getting less snow than was forecast. Hey, you comment on a public page it gets seen by everyone. “Schools let out early, everyone in panic mode, and not one flake here in St Joe. Lol well maybe some but not in form of snow” “Forecasts were much better 20 years ago. Whats the problem? Should have it down to the minute by… Read more »

Jsquibble
Guest
Jsquibble

I think all the weather folks missed today’s forecast. None of them got it right today nor Sunday but you would assume with the tons of money spent on models it would be better at predicting the weather by now

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Agreed. Missed by almost all.

Adam
Guest
Adam

The 12z Euro came around more toward the GFS for this weekend.

But again, we all know what these models do 5 days out.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

why are you still here….I thought you said Gary was posting garbage.

Richard
Guest
Richard

This Saturday (storm ?) Feb 10 would be 47 days from Christmas Day. Or 46 from the Christmas Eve snow.
So, it is in cycle range.

I like to use this site for calculating dates. You can add or subtract. It has drop down calendar dates.
There are a lot of useful tools on there.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

thanks

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Started getting light snow with a slight NE breeze at 1:25 PM. The snowfall remains light, but the flakes are fairly large, so now our walkways are covered. The county road grader scraped Sunday’s two inches away yesterday, but now the road is white again too.
Radar shows we are getting clipped by the south side of the leading edge as it drifts ENE, but we might get heavier action if the tail-end on the Colorado border grows larger.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

So, we are in a winter weather advisory, snow was to start at 2:00 but based on radar returns still lifting northeast away from most of St. Joseph. This may change in the next hour, but St. Joseph already put phase 2 of snow ordinance into effect at 5:00 p.m. for no snow yet??? Also cancelled all evening school activities and most districts in the area dismissed early.

What the heck, I know that it can get bad quickly but wow we are playing it sooo cautious now. You’d think we never got winter weather up here.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I don’t get the cancellations anymore either. When I was a kid it took 6″ of snow and wind to call off anything or a bunch of ice. Now if its cold we call off school. They are having it here today with about a 2″ snow so far so they are toughing it out I guess. Maybe they just figuring it saves on the budget not to have it?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

i don’t know anout the suburbs, but it probably wouldn’t take much snow in the downtown areas of St. Joe to make the streets dangerous. I was in St. Joe three times last year and spent about 8 hours there each time. I spent two full hours in the autumn just driving around on those steep, winding, forested goat paths you call streets. The streets were so full of leaves I could barely see the pavement. I loved it. Every time I’m there I think of what the Disney Corporation could do with that town. The first thing I would… Read more »

Jsquibble
Guest
Jsquibble

Looks like the snow is tracking further north than the models predicted. Good thing i wasn’t banking on a snow day tomorrow lol

Rhonda
Guest
Rhonda

Gary,
I read this blog every day. You have opened it up for free, which I have appreciated until today. Please go back to making a small fee to participate. I’ll gladly pay that small fee so I can read comments by actual weather enthusiasts and no trolls.

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

I’m with Rhonda. 75% of these comments contribute nothing to this blog. Just trolls…UGH

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy chilly February Tuesday afternoon to you sir. Well I may not get an accumulating snow today, but as I look out my window I have 2 inches of snow on the ground and a temperature of 17 degrees; (ironically many on here in early December said we would never have a low lower than 17 degrees and yet today it is the high and I have had 3 days with highs in the single digits….go figure….but I digress.) I am now in my third day with a high below freezing ( I dropped to 28 Saturday night before… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks Bill.
Always appreciate your analysis.

Steve
Guest
Steve

People, People, People. Wow.

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Crippling ice storm this wknd!

Stl78
Guest
Stl78

Just having some fun on here. Dont bash me..lol

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Are you trolling?? ☺

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Umm nothing happened !!

Fred
Guest
Fred

Let’s talk about the storm that has been consistently on the GFS (not on the EURO) for this coming weekend?

Where does it line-up in the cycling theory? I believe it is December 27-30th?

And should we expect a winnowing down of the possibility of storm as we get closer to the date?

Remind me of what happened in December…if you don’t mind?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If it’s the New Year’s part of the pattern, I wouldn’t expect anything. Certainly not the bonafide snowstorm it showed on the 12z GFS or the ice that was showing up before that. It’ll weaken and come into line with the LRC as we get towards Friday.

Terry
Guest
Terry

We just have to wake me see we don’t know

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Wake me??

Richard
Guest
Richard

This Saturday Feb 10 would be 47 days from Christmas Day. Or 46 from the Christmas Eve snow.
So, it is in cycle range.

I like to use this site for calculating dates. You can add or subtract. It has drop down calendar dates.
There are a lot of useful tools on there.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html