Good morning bloggers,
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly cloudy and dry. The snow will stay north and west of KC. High: 21°
- Tonight: There is a 90% chance of snow with a dusting to 2″ possible before midnight. This would form in a band from northeast to southwest between 6 PM and 10 PM.
Kansas City awakens to a high overcast this morning. The temperatures are very cold, around 10 to 15 degrees, and anticipation is building for another small snow event. We have experienced 5.4″ of snow officially at KCI Airport in seven different snows so far this season, and the chance this one tonight turns into another small event is very high. There is still some doubt that we will get any snow at all, and some areas may completely get missed by todays “storm”. In fact, I believe it has now been years since our last true major winter storm. We usually have two or three major winter storms in a season, but not in years now. So, what is going to happen today? Let’s take a look at the potential beginning with a look back at some of the models that we have been paying attention to.
- The European Model: So many just love this model, but at least in KC this winter this model has done the poorest that I have seen. It modeled these amounts from five days ago until the most recent run: 5″, 6″, 5″, 4″, 4″ wide spread, 3″, 3″, 2″, 1″, then zero on last nights run
- The NAM Model: 0″, 0″, 0″, 0″, 0″, then 0.5″ on the overnight run
- The GFS Model: 2″, 7″, 4″, 3″, 2″, 2″, 1″, then zero
The reason for the models forecasting and then not forecasting snow has been dependent on that wave I discussed in yesterdays blog. Just a slight difference and we end up with zero. But, just slightly stronger and organized snow bands may form. So, where are the models today?
This model is the latest HRRR. It shows a heavy band of snow, just like a line of thunderstorms, over the KC metro area at 11 PM. This line forms around 6 to 8 PM. Doesn’t it sound like we are forecasting a line of thunderstorms? Well, don’t be shocked if this is a nice line of strong to severe thunderstorms 47 and 94 days from now, or around the first week of May. It will happen, because the pattern is cycling regularly centered at around 47-days. This line is suspect still, so before we predict a line in early May, let’s see if this forms first. There are bands of snow early today to monitor, but the line that is on this model is something that likely forms this evening.
This radar map is from 8 AM this morning. The band is moving east-northeast. Let’s see where this goes, and how this evening evolves. I truly feel like I am tracking potential thunderstorms and not snow, that’s how this system is acting, which still makes it suspect.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation. It should be an interesting one today