Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?

Good morning bloggers,

Sunday was a rather fun day to track the weather. An area of snow tracked in from the northwest on Sunday morning. By 5 AM, Jeff Penner and I discussed the likely track of this system right over KC. It was like an MCS (Meso-scale Convective System), or complex of thunderstorms. The snow came down heavily reducing visibilities to 1/8th of a mile or less at times.

5This is the radar image from 7:12 AM.  At this moment, the NWS had only a 10% chance of snow. Jeff changed our forecast to a 60% chance of snow by 5:30 AM.  By 8 AM Jeff changed the forecast to 100% chance of snow with an inch possible.  The NWS increased their chance to 30%.  Here is why some forecasters don’t change the forecast fast enough in a “nowcasting” situation like yesterday. They forget the rules of forecasting the weather. Well, they are my rules:

* Rule #1: Always look outside because you never know

* Rule #2:  Look at radar and satellite and the current conditions to see if anything is developing that the computer models do not see

* Rule #3:  Look at the computer models

* Rule #4: Always make up your own mind

If you would have really paid close attention to that area of snow northwest of KC, then you could tell it was increasing and not decreasing. Then, looking outside you could see some rather fascinating clouds as the sun was rising, these ripples in the clouds which said to me it was heading this way. The same kinds of look to the clouds happens when an MCS is approaching. And, the computer models? The computer models were useless and there is a time to stop looking at them, and this was one of those times. The models had NOTHING; well the Canadian model from the night before had this modeled the best, so there was one.

The NWS somehow also only measured 0.5″ despite a 15 to 1 ratio in snow to liquid calculation. They had 0.08″ liquid, but somehow only ended up with a half inch of snow:

4

Just to the south, across the southern metro area, Gerard Jebaily, our weekend evening meteorologist and storm chaser, measured just under 2.5″ of snow, so a few areas had this much in a very short period of time. I had 2″ at my place.

IMG_2438

So what is next? The struggle may continue to add to our seasonal total, the whopping 5.4″ at KCI airport.  Why? Remember, I have been consistent in the past five days in discussing how just the slightest change would make a huge difference in this next storm system.  As great as Sunday was for some of us weather enthusiasts, I am concerned. Take a look:

4

The model forecast on the left shows the GFS model from 8 runs ago, and the one on the right shows the GFS model run from last nights 6z (midnight) model run. They look similar right? Well, not to me at all.  There is the slightest difference in the strength of the wave coming out into the plains. 8 model runs ago, a much better defined wave was modeled to emerge out over the Oklahoma Panhandle. In the second map, you can see the wave much more phased. This ever so slight difference makes a huge difference in whether or not some areas see any snowfall accumulation at all (right), or up to 7 inches of snow with the solution on the left.  Some models are even weaker than this latest version and have almost no snow over the entire KC metro. So, how are we supposed to forecast the weather when such a subtle difference can have such huge impacts? Good question? Well, we are doing our best.

And, we haven’t even started talking about today’s disturbance? There is a storm system tracking across the plains today:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_1

This map above shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tonight, and the map below shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tomorrow night:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_5

So, we have two storms to track in the next 36 hours. And, it is still rather uncertain how much snow will fall, if any, from this combination.  Again, just a slightly stronger solution on tomorrows storm, and we will have a significant accumulation of snow, and a bit weaker…….then poof.  Let’s discuss this further in the comments section over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Adam Taylor
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Adam Taylor

There’s a blog up at the KSHB website for today.

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Uh oh!! It’s coming!

Kstater
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Kstater

Gary said in his Facebook live that he expected it to be sunny first thing this morning here. He said if it was cloudy that is a good sign that it’s strengthening. It’s cloudy here in Lawrence so hopefully a good sign.

SnowCommander
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SnowCommander

Seeing if this pic works

comment image?ts=1517925958011

SnowCommander
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SnowCommander
Matt
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Matt

I hope the irony of the name of the blog, the title of this blog post and the discussions we are having aren’t lost on anyone.

Stl78
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Stl78

Dusting to an in for most of kc is my forecast. 1 to 3 points north of 435 corridor. An isolated 4 in not out of the question in a heavier band

Tim
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Tim

Could be wrong– but all the model I am looking at are showing the snow at west to be much further north or have a much more northerly component than what it shows now on radar– or is this just wishful thinking?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

No new blog?

Phillip
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Phillip

Still looking at those models…. useless this close. Window and radar are the only things that will be accurate today.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The HRRR is actually made for this exact reason – short term “now-casting”

Phillip
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Phillip

So they say… still don’t think they handle storms very well. Radar is your best friend today

f00dl3
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f00dl3

comment image

^ The snow band shifting through the city – in/out in about 2 hrs

f00dl3
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f00dl3

So the HRRR is showing that the main batch will fall apart and a 2ndary band will form right over the city. It moves through fast so only about 1/2″ of snow accumulation – but I wonder if this feature may be a bit stronger we could see 1-2″?

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Phillip
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Phillip

Good thing three7s isn’t a met lol

Three7s
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Three7s

That’s not what the radar says? Looks like it to me.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The core of snow is about 35 miles south of where the NAM placement has it. OMG could it actually bulls eye KC??!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DDC-N0Q-0-6

Three7s
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Three7s

Nah, it’s going ENE, leaving us on the southern end as NAM/GFS said last run.

Jsquibble
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Jsquibble

Snow is already breaking out across central and western ks. Could this be a sign? Starting earlier than expected?

Weatherman
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Weatherman

That was always the case. Snow gets going across Colorado and SW Kansas. Moves ME into central Kansas and up towards Nebraska/Iowa

Jack
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Jack

Gfs and nam are both consistent with 3-4 inches between just north of kc and st. joe. My prediction now is dusting-1 south of i-70, 1-2 for the metro, 2-4 between north kc and st. joe. Gary, I loved your humor during the video. I think we all need to realize that for passionate snow lovers, it has been extremely frustrating the past 4 years. With hopes going up with each storm followed by being let down. I am so over these 1-2 inch snow storms. What I really want to see is a classic 10-12 inch snow storm that… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I can’t believe the melt down on here today over a potential 1.5 inches of snow. Wow.

Phillip
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Phillip

Models won’t do much good this close. Watch where the snow bands set up tomorrow. Guarantee the models don’t have them placed 100% accurately tonight.

Adam
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Adam

GFS has been consistently showing an ice storm for this weekend. Time to move on from tomorrow’s non-event, and focus on the next vanishing storm!

Also, the Euro is vastly different than the GFS.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

LoL…if you don’t mind, lets deal with one storm at a time. Tomorrow first, then move on to the weekend.

Richard
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Richard

I’ll take those deserved lumps and hit the sack.
I was very wrong today on too many fronts. Very rude of me.
I am sorry to Gary and everyone who I offended. Very sorry.

Ready for Spring.
But more snow would be nice.

Val
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Val

Ignore the negativity Gary and fellow weather enthusiast bloggers! People literally don’t have lives to live if they are trolling a weather blog. Go find a productive hobby ya lazy trolls! LOL.

Nat
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Nat

Gary, With new data that just came out does that change your thoughts on anything? I will be flying into kci tomorrow evening and a bit concerned i may run into major delays during my connecting flight heading to kci. Thanks for all your hard work and passion for weather. I remember years and years ago my grandfather set his tv to come on every morning at 5:30 am. He watched you everyday! A few days after Ameristar opened my family and I were there and my grandfather saw you and started jumping up and down in excitement seeing you… Read more »

Kstater
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Kstater

The 0Z GFS
Bad: It shows zero snow 1-70 and south
Good: the band of snow is much heavier with 3-5 inches.

Heavysnow
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Heavysnow

St Louis Meteorologists have no clue what is happening with this storm…..so many different forecasts and NWS St Louis has changed their forecast like twice a day. Maybe because we actually had snow at my house from Dec 24th….I think we get some snow and maybe can pull out a 3 inch snowfall in St Louis area.

I really think its funny how somebody will put up a “model” run during their forecast and pretty much accept that its what is going to really happen.

Morgan
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Morgan

Nothing on the GFS. Snow north and south and a goose egg here.

Nat
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Nat

To be fair there were very rude comments on the live fb. I understand how Gary would have gotten upset! Everyone no matter what channel you watch is having a hay day with this storm and I think all Mets are doing a great job with the information at hand.

Morgan
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Morgan

People need to relax on here. Tons of negativity in the comments lately.

Richard
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Richard

Criticism. He can’t take it. He needs to retire.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

criticism is one thing…outright rudeness and disrespect is another…he doesn’t have to do live blogs with us you know

JoeK
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JoeK

Richard,

WHAT has gotten into you today. You are on a Gary bashing roll! The comments on this blog were out of control and down right ridiculous

Laurie
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Laurie

Amen!! Richard is one of the trolls Gary was talking about. He was not rude at all going off on that person . They were the rude ones.

JoeK
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JoeK

Richard,

Retire? are you serious? one of the BEST meteorologists in the country and a leading pioneer in the weather industry needs to retire because he is standing up to the internet bullies that live to troll and incite chaos? I will give you credit, you are normally good at taking a step back and analyzing your comments when a bit out of control and Richard, I think this is one of those times.

Paul
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Paul

Is it dark down there in moms basement??? It was criticism, it was a personal attack.

Paul
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Paul

Not criticism

Josh
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Josh

I’m going with 1-3″ right now, will see in the morning 5-7am if I want to change it, but 1-3″ covers my ass lol. People get so intense on some of their comments, both snow lovers and haters. Calm down, it’s a weather blog that is supposed to be fun. No need to be a keyboard warrior. lol 🙂

Richard
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Richard

Oh boy
Gary just WENT OFF on his facebook live feed to the comments.
He literally went off on them. He lost it.
So many were telling him please get to the forecast when he was explaining about yesterday and the models.
He blasted them. So rude. Not professional at all.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

I agree he lost it a little…but some of the comments were just plain rude and disrespectful.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

lol…no, many didn’t say “please”, they were like, “HELLO, TOMORROWS FORECAST”, or “DON’T CARE..GET TO TOMORROW” Don’t misrepresent what happened.

Eric
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Eric

Amateur weather enthusiasts here. I thought the models really didn’t matter this close to the storm. Except the RAP close range model? Haven’t watch any weather channels for predictions, wait for lezaks FB live but I’m gonna go with a small 1-2 inches in my neck of the woods (PV/OPKS) with the potential for this to surprise us with higher amounts (yes that’s some wishcasting haaha) anything can happen though

Donald
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Donald

Loading slow.

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

Gary where is your live feed?

JoeK
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JoeK

Bill, I still think you and I will be on the right side of this systems prediction when it is all over said and done. If not, we can have a crow lunch. It is amazing how accurate the LRC really has been this year. It is my sincerest hope that those who don’t understand it or simply refuse to , take the time to learn. I have not been able to predict the exact amounts and locations, but I have known when and where to expect a system. That, in and of itself, is pretty darn amazing and something… Read more »

Remembercody
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Remembercody

I use Storm App powered by The Weather Company (Weather Underground/Intellicast) and in the app for my location here in Independence we have a Significant Weather Potential “Alert” for Heavy Snowfally from 2/6/18 1:00PM until 2/7/18 12:00AM.

WHY?!….

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

LOL…snowfally

Ryan
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Ryan

I have to give Bill in Lawrence credit, he has been calling for 1-2 inches for the better part of a week. I’m betting that verifies.

Donald
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Donald

Working good.

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Huh?

Richard
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Richard

Just loading slow

Bobbie
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Bobbie

Test

Phillip
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Phillip

Blog been working perfectly fine all day and since they fixed it the other day

Richard
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Richard

So over 300 comments yesterday and blog worked fine.
Tonight it is slower loading. But Bob, please don’t add plugins again.
We will b patient

Kstater
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Kstater

Welp. 0Z nam shows a small band of 2-3 inches north and absolutely nothing from about kci South. I think the nam hasn’t been great this year but the trend is definitely bad. I think this will be a event we will just have to wait and watch radar trends tomorrow.

Kstater
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Kstater

Well I just looked at the amounts not anything else. Going back looking at energy itself Gary has a point. Wave is stronger. Still think it may be a small band of very heavy snow surrounded by almost nothing.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Welp. 0Z nam shows a small band of 2-3 inches north and absolutely nothing from about kci South.

MikeL
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MikeL

00z NAM has the heavy snow in Arkansas through 36 hrs.

They need a weather2020 tour bus for road trips.

Richard
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Richard

Lol !
Yeah! I’d buy a ticket to go see so,e real snow !

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The NWS in Topeka hasn’t backed down from their forecast yet, and we’re directly in the middle of the predicted 2 to 4″ swath.
comment image?27fafb9ef7bc159b4f97941c706222b5

Grambo624
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Grambo624

Well, I guess that depends on your location. It’s 1-3 for KC. Dusting – 1 at my location in Lee’s Summit.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

that shows kc in the 1-3 swath dude

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

Snow comes to Kansas City to die

Joe
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Joe

This!!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Do we think we can go 5 years without a 3″ snow at KCI?

Aryl Kazeg
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Aryl Kazeg

Boom!! Yahtzee!!! Yes we can….

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

Shouldnt it have been…
Aryl Ezakg

Just saying.

Bobbie
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Bobbie

This “storm” is laughable. These comments are literally laughable

Aryl Kazeg
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Aryl Kazeg

Boom!! Yahtzee!!! Where did the model readers go? I was kind of hoping for the latest run of the GFS, NAM, Euro, Gem, etc…..

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Man, don’t look at the HRR. Looks even more pathetic than the NAM. Flurries at best. Wow.

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Stl78
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Stl78

Its crazy what a little snow does to this blog! No matter what side of the fence u r on.