Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?

/Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?

Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?

Good morning bloggers,

Sunday was a rather fun day to track the weather. An area of snow tracked in from the northwest on Sunday morning. By 5 AM, Jeff Penner and I discussed the likely track of this system right over KC. It was like an MCS (Meso-scale Convective System), or complex of thunderstorms. The snow came down heavily reducing visibilities to 1/8th of a mile or less at times.

5This is the radar image from 7:12 AM.  At this moment, the NWS had only a 10% chance of snow. Jeff changed our forecast to a 60% chance of snow by 5:30 AM.  By 8 AM Jeff changed the forecast to 100% chance of snow with an inch possible.  The NWS increased their chance to 30%.  Here is why some forecasters don’t change the forecast fast enough in a “nowcasting” situation like yesterday. They forget the rules of forecasting the weather. Well, they are my rules:

* Rule #1: Always look outside because you never know

* Rule #2:  Look at radar and satellite and the current conditions to see if anything is developing that the computer models do not see

* Rule #3:  Look at the computer models

* Rule #4: Always make up your own mind

If you would have really paid close attention to that area of snow northwest of KC, then you could tell it was increasing and not decreasing. Then, looking outside you could see some rather fascinating clouds as the sun was rising, these ripples in the clouds which said to me it was heading this way. The same kinds of look to the clouds happens when an MCS is approaching. And, the computer models? The computer models were useless and there is a time to stop looking at them, and this was one of those times. The models had NOTHING; well the Canadian model from the night before had this modeled the best, so there was one.

The NWS somehow also only measured 0.5″ despite a 15 to 1 ratio in snow to liquid calculation. They had 0.08″ liquid, but somehow only ended up with a half inch of snow:

4

Just to the south, across the southern metro area, Gerard Jebaily, our weekend evening meteorologist and storm chaser, measured just under 2.5″ of snow, so a few areas had this much in a very short period of time. I had 2″ at my place.

IMG_2438

So what is next? The struggle may continue to add to our seasonal total, the whopping 5.4″ at KCI airport.  Why? Remember, I have been consistent in the past five days in discussing how just the slightest change would make a huge difference in this next storm system.  As great as Sunday was for some of us weather enthusiasts, I am concerned. Take a look:

4

The model forecast on the left shows the GFS model from 8 runs ago, and the one on the right shows the GFS model run from last nights 6z (midnight) model run. They look similar right? Well, not to me at all.  There is the slightest difference in the strength of the wave coming out into the plains. 8 model runs ago, a much better defined wave was modeled to emerge out over the Oklahoma Panhandle. In the second map, you can see the wave much more phased. This ever so slight difference makes a huge difference in whether or not some areas see any snowfall accumulation at all (right), or up to 7 inches of snow with the solution on the left.  Some models are even weaker than this latest version and have almost no snow over the entire KC metro. So, how are we supposed to forecast the weather when such a subtle difference can have such huge impacts? Good question? Well, we are doing our best.

And, we haven’t even started talking about today’s disturbance? There is a storm system tracking across the plains today:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_1

This map above shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tonight, and the map below shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tomorrow night:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_5

So, we have two storms to track in the next 36 hours. And, it is still rather uncertain how much snow will fall, if any, from this combination.  Again, just a slightly stronger solution on tomorrows storm, and we will have a significant accumulation of snow, and a bit weaker…….then poof.  Let’s discuss this further in the comments section over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-02-06T08:32:46+00:00February 5th, 2018|General|312 Comments

312 Comments

  1. Fred February 5, 2018 at 6:11 am - Reply

    I can’t believe we are 36 hours away from an event and we still don’t have any idea what is actually going to happen.

    Today there will be three different types of bloggers:

    1. Snow Lovers (They will post the Euro, GFS, Canadian)

    2. Snow Haters (They will post the NAM)

    3. Trolls (They will post nothing of value, except to criticize #1 and #2.)

    Interesting to see that the NWS is talking about a wide spread 2-3 inch scenario, yesterday Jeff was talking about the possibility of a big snowfall event, and today, we are left with “it may not snow or maybe it will?”

    Stay Tuned….

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

      Well…Gary put the snow chances yesterday at 90 percent…”it may snow or mabye it won’t” = ultimate cya

  2. Terry February 5, 2018 at 6:25 am - Reply

    I say we have alot of snow tomorrow/evening!

  3. Bsmike February 5, 2018 at 6:54 am - Reply

    If you look at radar that snow is drifting right at us!!

  4. DanT February 5, 2018 at 7:09 am - Reply

    Tuesday will be interesting to watch. Was this the December system that produced decent snowfall in Western and West Central KS? Then weaken as it got to KC with a 1-2” or less event. Are we going to see more snow based on seasonal differences? Something allowed yesterday’s event to be more significant where in earlier cycles it would have weakened before getting to the metro.

  5. choppy February 5, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    Haven’t heard anything about a system today until just now. Looks to be getting close.

  6. Anonymous February 5, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Really? Only a little bit more than 24 hours and you are still hedging on the amounts of the snow?

  7. Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 7:50 am - Reply

    So based on the blog above, the LRC says this could be slightly stronger than the models, and produce something like 4-6″…or it may be slightly weaker and go “poof”?

  8. Adam February 5, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Find it interesting that Gary is claiming consistency this morning, despite saying on FB live yesterday, we would likely have a Winter Storm Watch issued today.

    That was wildly incorrect from the moment it was said.

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      Agree
      And I appreciate Gary, but where was he, or Jeff, on here yesterday.
      To gloss it over and tell us today that Jeff upped the chance to 100% yesterday, but there was no update here. Not everyone watched 41 yesterday.
      At least JL had the humility to go on facebook yesterday and apologize/admit he was wrong about the amount.
      I’ve never heard Gary or any of the 41 mets apologize for being wrong.
      I will get blasted for this comment, but its my opinion. I am entitled to it.

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

        yeah…I love Gary, but have to agree. To boast about changing the forecast at the last minute only as it was seen coming in on radar and growing is extraordinarily unimpressive.

        • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

          Gary has never publicly eaten crow on a forecast.

          As late as yesterday morning, after sunrise, the official KSHB forecast remained a dusting to a 1/4″. You can see it right in the blog before this one. It was never updated.

          KSHB wasn’t alone – this storm was a miss for every forecaster…but as you mentioned, it is refreshing that at least some of them recognized the miss and didn’t just try to gloss over it.

  9. Bill in Lawrence February 5, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Gary:
    Good cold Monday morning to you sir. Bottomed out at 0 this morning at my house but some areas around me were close to 3 below. This was our second morning in the last 5 days with lows in the single digits. While the cold in cycle 3 may not have the staying power it had in cycle 2, there is little doubt it has made its presence felt. I would respectfully argue that we have a chance of at least one more morning in the single digits before this cold phase of cycle 3 is over regardless of snow cover. If we can get some snow maybe 2 more.

    Excellent write up this morning Gary; thanks so very much!!! Really informative on the look of the wave in the different model runs and how it has weakened over the past several runs even on the GFS. There is the trend as of this moment. A few random hobbyist thoughts about this…

    1. I would still leave the chances of a good “twist” at 30% for Tuesday’s event. Granted to get two good twists in 48 hours should probably take that down to 1% but I really believe there is a chance of one of these waves that we saw from December 26th-mid January can produce a 3 plus inch snow event. Maybe this one will be that twist so I will still respectfully argue we have the 30% chance of that occurring.

    2. That said, if one had to bet on this system, then 1-2 inches is for sure the safest bet as this is a dink and dunk snow winter; and yes I will take that 2 inches and smile and say thank you LRC of 2017-2018. If I can get 2 inches tomorrow that will give me four for the week and 10 for the year. It would also be the biggest snow week I have had since March 7th of 2014 so 2 inches would be absolutely fine with me. Yes…I have low expectations!!!

    3. Even if I do not receive a flake on Tuesday it will not bother me that much. I got to take part in a very good “twist” yesterday as we had a wave intensify just at the right time and I saw the heaviest snow I have seen in 4 years if only for a brief time. Honestly, you cannot get more winter than what I had the past 24 hours. Around 2 inches of snow with strong north winds then the temps crash to around 0 this morning. Seriously…it can’t much more winter like than that around here. Yes again I did not have that high of expectations for this winter so for me this winter has been okay.

    4. Finally…how in the world did the NWS only measure .5?? Everywhere you read on amounts around the entire area had around 1.5-2 inches. I just don’t get that!!

    Thanks again Gary for a very informative blog and having posted so early…that is so appreciated!!! Crazy day ahead in the weather following department. I am guessing the first model out…the NAM…will continue its trend…like I said if I can squeeze 2 inches out of tomorrow I will be happy and I think the chances of that are better than 60%.

    Have a great Monday everyone!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

      Bill –

      What is a “twist”? Is it predictable?

      Can it turn a 2″ model event into a 4-6″ event if the twist occurs one way, or make it drop to 0″ if it twists the other?

      Is the “twist” a joker card?

      • Bill in Lawrence February 5, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

        Snowflake:

        Happy Monday!!

        For me, a “twist” is when a storm acts a bit differently in a different cycle. Yesterday was a twist. If yesterday was the wave of December 22nd it just brought down cold air in cycle 2. If it is the wave of Christmas Eve, in cycle 2 it was just a very light snow that produced .5 to an inch. However, yesterday in cycle 3 it intensified enough to give me the heaviest snow band I have seen in 4 years and if had lasted just and hour longer we are done with the conversation of 3 plus inch snows. That is a twist. An historical example is the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. In cycle 2 it was a blizzard…in cycle 3 it was just a rain snow mix with highs around 33…that was a twist as well.

        I have to respectfully argue that this pattern can produce a 3-5 inch snow. The chances may not be great, but there are enough players that it can happen. The wave Tuesday is one of the waves that if all goes correctly could do it. Again, the chances are low but there are waves in this LRC that could produce that amount of snow and I would argue it is a bit premature to write the possibility off just because of cycle 2.

        The 12Z NAM to my very untrained eye has a stronger solution for the wave than the previous two runs….as such, its precip shield has moved south and west quite a bit compared to the 0Z. Will be interesting to see what the 0Z says tonight.

        Just my own thoughts…

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

        • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

          So the ‘twists’ aren’t predictable? And they’re capable of turning a storm in one cycle into a cloudy day the next cycle…or a monster storm the next cycle?

          If so, of what value is this theory?

  10. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    I don’t even know why Gary would say something of the nature of a Winter Storm Watch knowing that this LRC has been the way it has been this year. Let things shake out and again as I said yesterday, until the 12z runs the day before the event this year models have been totally useless. Yesterday they were totally useless even at the event. The HRRR did finally come around but then it was overdone showing KC Metro getting 5″ – and it showed us hitting -7F this morning when we only dropped to around 0F at KOJC / Olathe Johnson County Exec this morning as of the 23z HRRR last evening.

    I have noticed the HRRR has had a high QPF and colder temp bias this winter. That being said it’s hard to blame it because the colder temps have been a trend all winter anyway – maybe the bias is overcompensating for the LRC?

    • Joe February 5, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

      Ratings and web traffic

      • Matt February 5, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

        Boom! Job #1, get ratings and web traffic. Job #2, be right. Not trying to be critical. You don’t keep your job if you don’t get ratings.

        • Bill in Lawrence February 5, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

          I have to respectfully disagree with this. After what happened yesterday morning it would not have been surprise at all if they hoisted one up just to make sure. There was a ton of heat on the NWS in Topeka yesterday for the surprise intensity of the snow and considering the previous GFS runs were showing the possibility of 3-5 inches it would not been far fetched for them to have hoisted one just to make sure they were covered.

          • Matt February 5, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

            I wasn’t speaking about this last event necessarily. Speaking generally about how mets (have to) operate.

        • KS Jones February 5, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

          The NWS didn’t do well at predicting low temperatures for last night either. Their prediction yesterday morning said we’d have a low of 11° but it hit -8°. Of course they lowered their predictions 3 times during the day but their last revision (0°) was still 8° off.
          I was surprised to see the low temperature at the Lawrence airport was -7° at midnight. That was 20° lower than the prediction they made 12 hours earlier.
          Here’s the 3-day weather history for Lawrence.
          http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLWC.html

    • Bill in Lawrence February 5, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

      foodl3:

      In defense of the HRRR if the southerly flow had held off for about another 2 hours and we did not have a high cloud deck move overhead Lawrence would have been real close to the 7 below. We were at 3 below when all this occurred around 3:00 A.M…I was outside at the time and felt the wind shift and knew we were at the coldest temps…..the model missed by about two hours the return flow….can’t really fault if for that.

      • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

        It’s fair to fault a rapid-refresh meso model for missing low temps by 7-10 degrees.

        The whole point of the rapid-refresh models is to get details like that.

    • KS Jones February 5, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      I don’t know where the mesonet station is at Olathe, but they recorded -4° at 12:35 last night. Perhaps the terrain or a “heat island” had an effect on the air temperature.
      http://mesonet.k-state.edu/weather/freeze/

  11. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

    The snow on the radar doesn’t look like it will hit much of Missouri. Especially not us here in the immediate metro.

  12. Josh February 5, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

    Wait till tonight to see what the afternoon models come up with. In the meantime prepare for something like what we had yesterday and you will be perfectly fine. I agree, with the way the winter has went 1-3″ is a safe bet on this storm.

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

      Aren’t the models not too accurate when you get within 24 hrs of a snow event? Wait, who are we kidding..they havent been accurate at all anytime out lately.

  13. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

    Here’s what I see:

    Latest HRRR looks like it’s doing the same track for today’s storm as the latest 2 NAM runs.
    12z NAM looks almost identical to the 06z NAM 3km run.
    12z NAM also looks like the 00z, 06z NAM runs.
    00z Canadian looks like the 00z and 06z NAM runs.
    00z and 06z GFS looks like the 18z, 00z, 06z and 12z NAM.

    Because the Canadian and GFS models have a lower resolution, they “spread” the snow out more.

    Just saying – everything is coming into line with the NAM for track and intensity, with only the model resolution causing more widespread snowfall.

    • Three7s February 5, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

      Yeah, but how can we trust ANY model after yesterday? They’re all a joke.

      • Clint February 5, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

        The Canadian got it right yesterday, and as I have said all year it has been the best model. I know it is shocking!

        • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

          luck

      • f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

        Yeah – but that’s where we can use the LRC to kind of gauge what may happen.

        • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

          Well, what does it say will happen? This blog post certainly provides no insight. It says a big event outperforming models is possible…and it is also possible it will go “poof”.

          • f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

            Looking at the December part of the pattern, I can only see this wave shearing out and shifting north. Probably even further north than the NAM.

            • Gary February 5, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

              Look closer. The Christmas Eve storm produced, and it was iffy up until the day before, just like now. Incredible. Can you imagine trying to show the LRC in a pattern where storms are much bigger? This has been the challenge this year for KC again, where we have to try to explain how we are close to getting nothing. It’s like trying to predict 0.01″ of rain or 0.20″ inches of rain. If it rains you are right either way because the ground gets wet. But, with snow it’s a huge difference. KCI had 0.08″ liquid, so did Jeff Penner after he melted down his 1.5″ of snow. 1.5″ at Jeff’s house down south and 0.5″ at KCI based on some measuring meteorologist who used a snow board on a windy dry snow.

              My point is that forecasting these little events is so hard. And, my other point, if you read the blog and please do look at my map comparison. ONE SMALL CHANGE and it is 7 inches of snow in KC. This SMALL CHANGE may not be known until tomorrow. It is what this pattern is all about. I now have the challenge of going into KSHB and explaining this on the air.

              Gary

              • Terry February 5, 2018 at 10:55 am

                Retroup care of and we not know that sell tomorrow what’s gonna happen with this Event until tomorrow.ime what happened yesterday.

              • Terry February 5, 2018 at 10:58 am

                Skip that last comment. Very true Gary may not know what’s will happen with this snow event until tomorrow. Lime what happen with yesterdays event hear.

  14. Urbanity February 5, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    On a different subject, I’m just trying to figure out if NASA’s Curiosity rover landed on Mars or somewhere in Nevada.

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

      ummmm………what….?

  15. Urbanity February 5, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

    We received about 1/2″ of snow yesterday out here west of Salina, the windmill farm greatly reduced the radar shades as it moved southeast. This next storm could be interesting for our area, when we have precip shields moving from the southeast to the northwest then we usually get a decent snowfall. Like Gary said though, the wave is weakened by the models which would greatly reduce the negative tilt of the storm (less moisture pulled in from the SE). I’m still skeptical about any decent precip during a drought situation, I would not put our chances of 3+ inches of snow at greater than 25% unless it was a monster of a storm.

    • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

      I think the area from I-70 South especially West of 135 is the biggest concern for drought as that area has been targeted by nothing during this LRC. To the North there have been quite a few storms/waves but they produce small amounts of precip due to the low moisture and fast movement. Perhaps this will produce better from May forward?? This should be the furthest South position of the jet stream so it would seem it might be difficult to get much down that way. Perhaps something will change but it doesn’t look good at the moment.

      • Urbanity February 5, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

        agreed

    • KS Jones February 5, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

      Hmmm… do you suppose the long bank of wind farms in northeastern Marshall County caused the localized drought in that region (northeastern Marshall & northwestern Nemaha)?
      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20170926/20170926_KS_date.png

      • Urbanity February 5, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

        Not familiar with that farm, possibly a newer farm. I would suppose it contributes greatly to the situation. The most important thing to note with the effects of windfarms is the amount of wind energy associated with the weather system. To me the surface lows are the most affected weather systems, whereas deformation zones in an upper low would not create much energy dispersing.

  16. NoBeachHere February 5, 2018 at 8:47 am - Reply

    Yesterday’s event should bring some very good optimism for spring and summer MCS. Models sometimes pick these up, sometimes they don’t.

    While I know most would like a significant snow, I’m ready for warm temps and the blossoms of spring. I’m willing to negotiate that it happens within the next 3 weeks. Btw, got a two stage Toro snowblower for sale, <350 lol.

  17. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    I read an article yesterday that there was an old post from 2014 nws page showing 8+ in for yesterdays event. The article claims that the post spread like wild fires on social media. Did any of u bloggers see this?

  18. LYITC41 February 5, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Yeah jerks apparently do this a lot to get people stirred up, look for the date make sure it’s current stuff. Looking at this blog YD you’d have thought that was the first snow ever here. Can’t figure out the fascination with it but more power to you I guess.

  19. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Im sure some people saw the post and just assumed and either liked it or shared it and it got out of control. The article did say that nws went in and stamp dated it to avoid further confusion. Im headed down to truman lake from mn on thur and i would appreciate it if u could procide me with aome warmth and sunshine plz n ty!

  20. Anonymous by choice February 5, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

    Let it happen.

  21. Jack February 5, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    What is now consistent about both the 12z nam and 6z gfs is that they both have a band of 1-4 inches. The biggest difference is the nam is very isolated paints it between St. Joe and the KC area., the GFS is much more widespread. The nam trended slightly in the direction of the gfs. This tells me to lean towards the gfs; we will likely these models trend more and more towards each other.

    My prediction is still 1-4 inches with a sharp cut off just south of the metro area.

    Gary, what I understood from the blog was that, again, the slightest difference in strength can make a huge difference; you are seeing a slightly weaker solution, and besides that, no one really knows, but a prediction still needs to be made. Which model do you lean on? How much do you think will fall?

    Jack

  22. Jack February 5, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    The “Calm during the Storm” channel posted a VERY good write up about why this is hard to predict even 24 hours before the storm. I really enjoy their blogs, despite them not being very accurate especially in years past.

    This really is a difficult storm!

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      Really?

      A dusting to 2″ is what this storm did Christmas Eve, and it takes the same track as that storm, so a dusting to 2″ is most likely. This is using the LRC.

      Gary

      • Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        If that is the case, then why was there talk of u saying a possible wsw may be issued yesterday. I know things get misconstrued and not even sure if u said this but that wouldnt b what the lrc is telling us. Thanks for your time

        • Gary February 5, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

          I thought the wave was coming in stronger, but it apparently is not. So, I discussed it as a possibility.

          Gary

          • Adam February 5, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

            Gary,

            This is where you fail. You absolutely cannot say the wave was coming in stronger, then in the next breath say, “Well using the LRC says a dusting to 2 inches”.

            Why on earth do you have the LRC if you aren’t using it from the get go????

            • Richard February 5, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

              Gary glossing things over again. Double-speak !
              Gets defensive when other mets are mentioned.
              I would like one time to see him admit he was wrong. One time.
              I am here for a reason. To learn about the LRC. But a little humility never hurt anyone.

          • Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

            Fair enough. Thank u!

          • Fred February 5, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

            So, what’s your official forecast? Dusting to two inches?

      • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

        Why didn’t you post that actual forecast up in the blog post instead of burying it in the comments?

        Yesterday’s blog post showed 4-5″ snowfall map. This blog post doesn’t show a forecast at all – essentially calls for zero to something big.

        Then down here in the comments is your most-likely LRC scenario.

      • Jack February 5, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

        Yes, their blog did a very good job of explaining; they have said what you have been saying but in greater detail.

  23. LYITC41 February 5, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    You can’t forecast amts using cycling patterns, models etc.- yesterday is a prime example. no one started predicting more than what had been forecast until it was right on our doorstep. NWS admits it was a “surprise” (this AM’s fcst discussion) and any one who says they saw it coming is being less than honest.

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

      But, it was always a possibility. We knew there was a chance of a system surviving. As I discussed in the blog it was like a northwest flow thunderstorm event, an MCS. 2″ of snow is not that much, but for KC it is huge.

      And, yes using the cycling pattern these things can be predicted. The exact amounts, likely not, but knowing that there is a good chance of a dusting to 2″ around tomorrows date shows that it is not just possible, but we are doing it. We still get caught into all of the models, but look at my rules of forecasting. APPLY THEM.

      Gary

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

        JL from the Furry Animal channel is saying its a tough forecast too..although he is thinks its very possible we get a good snow out of this.

      • DanT February 5, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

        Yes tomorrow’s event could do what it did in December, however what if this time we get 3-5”. Then was it by chance?

    • Remembercody February 5, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

      I remember from Friday (so at least TWO days) Gary said a dusting to an inch is POSSIBLE on Sunday. I am just not sure if it was here in the blog, the comments or on 41 but he did say it was possible so he isn’t wrong.

  24. Bill in Lawrence February 5, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Monday to you sir!!

    Looks like based on everything as of now that a safe bet for my neck of the woods will be 1-2 inches but I will still leave my 30% chance of a stronger solution on the table. If I do squeeze out 2 inches I will be perfectly fine with that. That would give me 4 inches of snow this week and one morning low of 0 (3 below in the valley)….can’t get much more wintry than that here south of the 39th parallel.

    Furthermore, if I had said in early December that Clinton Reservoir would have ice on it for close to 6 weeks with 2 weeks strong enough to walk on off the dam and that I would have 8 mornings in the single digits and 4 below 0 mornings and have a snow actually stay on the ground for 2 weeks I would have been laughed off the blog. This has not been a blockbuster winter by any stretch, but we have had plenty of winter weather since December 16th.

    Finally….I will try to explain something. There is no doubt that this LRC screams dinking and dunking type of snows..that is 1-2 maybe 3 inch snows and that will always be the best percentage. However, the reason I have been harping on the 30% chance of this wave producing more than 3 inches is because there is always a chance that a storm could have a twist..the chances may be low in this LRC but there is a chance. This wave has already produced in both cycles 1 and 2 so the possibility of a “twist” is not that far fetched…is it likely….probably not but there is a chance. We saw a twist yesterday in the intensity and the amounts of the snow compared to that wave in previous cycles. So when the models begin picking up on the possibility of a “twist” one cannot ignore it. You do not have to buy it in its entirety and should think to yourself that the chances based on this particular LRC are low but you sure have to keep open to the possibility. Not sure if this makes sense as I am typing this on the fly but I hope it sheds some light on why I keep talking about a 30% chance of a bigger snow.

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washignton Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

      Well here is a twist. I don’t know if they are right but the guys at weather bell think the NAO will tank later in the month and that has not happened all season. That could slow these systems down a bit and increase the chance of some bigger storms perhaps.

  25. LYITC41 February 5, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    And of the 4 I think #4 is the best, many mets depend too much on the data (often wrong) being thrown their way and not enough on their own wx instincts. Go with what YOU know. The other tools can be useful but they can also screw you too.

  26. Tod February 5, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Gary, as new data comes in this afternoon…are you going to do Facebook live? I really appreciate you doing them if I am not able to see your forecast on KSHB. Thanks

  27. Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

    This monster storm will completely shut this city down tomorrow. Bread, milk, and eggs better be on everyone’s grocery list!!!!

    • Fred February 5, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

      And there it is…#3.

  28. Weatherby Tom February 5, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Hey Bill in Lawrence, love your short stories! I live about 4 miles south of MCI, and I measured 1″ yesterday. So, it would appear that the farther north you went from the metro, the smaller amounts of snow. Therefore, the half inch they measured at the airport. Just my two cents from a weather enthusiast! Lets all enjoy a fun day of snow watching tomorrow!!!

  29. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    And beer!

  30. Morgan February 5, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

    Canadian has no snow. The GFS is the only one with anything. Sad thing is this might be our last chance at accumulating snow this year.

  31. Anonymous February 5, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

    Until Frankie from Nova Scotia declares that we in for severe winter weather I do not believe it.

  32. Doug February 5, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    Until Frankie from Nova Scotia declares on his You Tube channel that we are in for severe winter weather I do not believe it!

  33. Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

    Interesting newly-published paper on long-term forecasting using teleconnections, etc…

    https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

  34. Josh February 5, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

    Not going to lie, everyone busted on that forecast yesterday. I will say this, I was up and watched the whole thing unfold. Jeff predicted 1/2-1″ of snow and drew a line from Holton,Ks southeast toward Warrensburg, Mo and north of that line a dusting to a 1/2″. Watched the radar and Jeff, whole thing. Jeff did up snow totals and percentage as the storm got closer and held together or slightly strengthened. NWS did not and issued a WWA late in the game after it was already hitting us. I will say KSHB did better than the other local stations. I have put a lot of trust into KSHB since last year’s Ice Storm. All the other channels were predicting a 1″-1.5″ ice storm and Gary stayed on the conservative side and that’s how it panned out. Now as far as the LRC, I don’t and won’t buy it. Honestly, I am going to bring it up to the NWS this spring when I go to a spotter talk. I’d really like to hear their opinion of it. I will say this in closing, Gary’s dedication to the weather, dedication to his blog, and overall enthusiasm to the weather, those things stick out to me and make me put a little more money into his forecast than others here in KC.

  35. LYITC41 February 5, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    Looking a little lower on the snow totals for manana but after yesterday who knows? Sure not trusting the models.

  36. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    Been snowing here in se mn for a couple hrs. Looks as tho brunt of this will stay to my south. Im hoping for some warmth soon. I hope u guys get your moisture!

  37. HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    Kind of shows what a waste of time looks at what the models say 10, 7, 5, even 2 or 3 days lately as even 24 hrs ahead we still have no clue what will happen with the snow tomorrow. Hey Gary, HAPPY WEATHERPERSON’S DAY!!!!

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

      looking at what the models say

  38. Mr. Pete February 5, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Gary, I would like your thoughts of the timing of tomorrow. What’s time do you think the flakes will fly? Are we talking like a evening into overnight deal?

    • Matt February 5, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

      We are currently sitting in the “protect the brand” period. Don’t make any predictions and you can’t be wrong. You will get the official predictions at 10pm tonight, no earlier. It’s a story as old as time. That is why this blog made no predictions.

      • Fred February 5, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

        +1

  39. Fred February 5, 2018 at 12:50 pm - Reply

    NWS has trended down my location. This morning started with 70% tomorrow with 1-2 inches possible, 70% on Tuesday night with another 1-2 inches possible.

    Now, we are 60% of a dusting tomorrow, and 60% chance of 1 inch on Tuesday night.

    Slowed down the timing too…after 4:00 PM tomorrow…instead of noon.

    Blah.

    • DanT February 5, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

      The NWS sure did take the amounts down. Looks like it will do what it did in December- very little.

      • KS Jones February 5, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

        I can’t complain about a lack of snow. We’ve gotten 11.5″ so far this winter. That doesn’t compare to the places I worked above 11,000′ in the Rockies & Sierras, but twill do.
        And, the NWS hasn’t backed off of their predictions for this region (yet).
        http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.6819&lon=-96.6576
        Tuesday: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 19. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

      Just goes to show our ability to forecast snow in this part of the country has a long way to go eh?

  40. Bobbie February 5, 2018 at 1:15 pm - Reply

    I’m getting a mist on my windshield

    • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

      It’s just the tears of the snow-lovers.

  41. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 1:32 pm - Reply

    Yo gary, Happy wxman day! I35 now shut down in both directions around ames ia. At least 20 southbound vehicles have shut it down. They have closed northbound to get ems to the scene.

  42. Miss Jess February 5, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

    The Weather Channel now only saying 50% snow showers for tomorrow for Olathe (yesterday it was saying 3-5 inches) 🙁

  43. Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

    Has this storm gone POOF?

    Gary has posted just a 20% chance of precip tomorrow???
    https://www.kshb.com/weather/daily-forecast

    • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 2:10 pm - Reply

      POOF POOF POOF!!!

      Tears for Terry and Robert!

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

        Oh troll who hates his life…we just had heavy snow yesterday…whatever happens tomorrow is fine. OOPS, TROLL FAIL!!!!! LoL…but you keep living for the next moment you can troll someone and try to make them feel bad.

    • Matt February 5, 2018 at 2:14 pm - Reply

      Gary has nothing to do with that…

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

      That kshb weather page is a mess ! All the ads, etc.
      It has changed too.
      I remember there was a computer generated 7 day at the top of page, and scroll down there was the wx team 7 day.
      And they rarely agreed. Thats whyquit going to it.
      But the wx team 7 day was what they would show on air.

      Looks like 20% tomorrow. But 60% chance Saturday.

      I looked at JL blog. He always does a good job of explaining his thoughts/forecast in detail.
      Gary details more on the LRC, not so much memtion of forecast on here. But this is the LRC blog.
      Problem is, it is also the same blog as kshb.
      So I think there is a bit of a conflict. Gary links both blogs to the LRC. But you never hear the ither kshb mets mention the LRC on the air.

      • Matt February 5, 2018 at 2:26 pm - Reply

        Again, those percentages have nothing to do with the weather team or Gary. Here is their last thoughts:
        https://www.kshb.com/weather/forecast/todays-forecast/kansas-citys-most-accurate-forecast1

        • Richard February 5, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

          That video with Jeff ? Was that from today ? I couldn’t get the sound to play.
          So, there isn’t a 7 day wx team graphic, only the video ?

        • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

          I disagree – it has everything to do with Gary. It is the official KSHB forecast. Look at the web address — kshb.com

          Why would it be on KSHB if it wasn’t their forecast?

          It still says 20% chance of precip for tomorrow:

          https://www.kshb.com/weather

          • Richard February 5, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

            It’s computer generated. Artificial Intelligence. A.I.
            Gary disowns it. It is an orphan.

            • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

              Then why is it on his page?!?

              • Richard February 5, 2018 at 6:05 pm

                That would be something to ask Gary

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

        lOl…Gary had it at 90 percent for today yesterday

        • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

          for Tuesday I mean

          • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

            Huh?

          • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 2:49 pm - Reply

            What do you mean here??

  44. Terry February 5, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    That you posted right there is never right on that Graphic of the 7 day is never right on there. I’ve seen it before

  45. Anonymous by choice February 5, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    Time to look at Saturday night and Sunday. Much too early progs are ICE storm.

    • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

      On to the next debacle… full speed ahead!!!!

  46. Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    Stock market dove 1500 points today, but has made half of it back as of now

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

      Huh ? Remember this is a weather blog

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

        Its huge news…Gary Lezak just mentioned it on his Twitter….get over it.

        • Richard February 5, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

          Heat
          Don’t bust my chops.
          He didn’t come here to talk stocks.
          So go to twitter. This is a weather blog.

    • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 2:48 pm - Reply

      Actually still down 960

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

        It was back up to 760s, but now but now back down by about 1000

        • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

          Not good Heat 😐

    • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

      Kind of like tomorrows storm, a real poof-o-matic. Another swing and a miss!!!!

      • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:53 pm - Reply

        what do you mean another, we just got a hit yesterday

        • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

          Seriously, 1100 down, 4.32 percent. Certainly not good….

  47. Fred February 5, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

    Latest NWS discussion…Kurt in St. Joseph should be happy. It’s going north. We will be lucky to squeeze out an inch…

    Is the next storm system just a few days away?

  48. Richard February 5, 2018 at 2:48 pm - Reply

    Funny funny funny
    How the much anticipated, much touted, much drum banging storm for 5 days we might end up with a goose egg ?
    But the little mini wave storm of yesterday ended up being the little engine that could ! Toot toot ! Lol
    .

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

      Richard, I’m glad you are getting in to the spirit of this…

  49. Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    It would be nice if Gary would come on his blog and update us if he really is reversing his 90 percent chance of snow forecast for tomorrow.

    • Matt February 5, 2018 at 3:01 pm - Reply

      10pm. Tune in!

      • Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

        Correction – 10pm TUESDAY will have the official KSHB forecast for this storm.

        • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:46 pm - Reply

          Weather when you need it….oh, wait, let me check those models….hahahaha!!!

  50. Fred February 5, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

    He’s waiting on the next model run… 🙂

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:22 pm - Reply

      Hahahahahahahahaha!!!!

  51. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 3:05 pm - Reply

    Wonder if everyone put their stocks in the Winter Storm Warning and now that the models have trended to a LRC-fitting dusting to 2″ event, everyone sold their shares in salt and sand?

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

      LoL…a little melodramatic

  52. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Looks like NWS Topeka is putting “stock” into the idea that the storm will pass to our north, with I-70 being a cutoff line for Winter Weather Advisory.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:23 pm - Reply

      Yeah buddy!!

  53. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Actually it’s surprisingly still looking pretty good for snow in the metro. 1-4” still a good bet

  54. Heavysnow February 5, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Kiss of death for KC, for some reason The Weather Channel has somebody in KC. He mentioned that areas south of KC like St Joseph’s(LMAO) could get hit with 3″ or more….and also Central Missouri. They showed the forecast with the storm splitting around St Louis.

    So that means No snow for KC and Snow for St Louis since TWC is a joke

  55. Jack February 5, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    Latest nam is even further north with it being a little more widespread… looking a little more like the gfs just further north.. my prediction is gfs will trend north as well. I only have high confidence that the metro area will receive at most a dusting- 1/2 inch. Lets see what the gfs says…..

    Jack

  56. LibrarianWeatherNerd February 5, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

    I am still hopeful!!! I wonder if any weather winter advisories will still go out and impact decisions for school districts?

  57. Weatherman February 5, 2018 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    Good job on also picking up that MCS.

    Models seem to have reached agreement that heaviest will be I-70 to St.Joe and then back across central Kansas.

    South side probably 1.5 max. Northside of KC towards Lansing/Leavenworth probably another 3 inches.

    Nothing worth writing home about

  58. Richard February 5, 2018 at 3:25 pm - Reply

    Gary is mia here. Oh but I suppose he is at kshb now. Tune in at 4 p.m.
    What time was the last model runs ?

  59. Richard February 5, 2018 at 3:31 pm - Reply

    It is this LRC ! Still no 3 inchers for KC.
    But, last week. Gary DID say that the Sunday storm would set the stage for Tuesday. If we got next to nothing on Sunday, then Tuesday would be a bust. But if it produced on Sunday then Tuesday would be more likely to produce our first 3 inch storm.

    Hogwash

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:26 pm - Reply

      Richard, this was clearly a “whiff” of epic proportions, even for this blog…..At least volume (traffic) is up….

  60. Jsquibble February 5, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

    Well it’s currently snowing out in Overland Park if that makes anyone happy

  61. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

    Ice storm!😉😂

  62. Snowflake February 5, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

    At least one outlet is willing to stick their neck out with an actual forecast… considering onset is less than 24 hours away, seems reasonable to expect a forecast with numbers by now.

    https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/960632275712069632

  63. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

    Light snow shower here in grain valley

  64. DanT February 5, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    I think I’m done with the computer models. I have a unhealthy relationship with the models. They tease me into thinking something great is about to happen and in the end nothing.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:28 pm - Reply

      Been following the blog for years—predicted this nothing burger based upon everyone else’s reactions-quite easy actually. To tell you the truth, I didn’t even look at a model…

  65. Farmgirl February 5, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

    I thought snow in the forecast was for Northern, MO today. It’s snowing in OP. 🙂 These small scale snow events are over achievers!

  66. REAL HUMEDUDE February 5, 2018 at 4:18 pm - Reply

    The GFS givith, and the GFS takith away!
    I’m sick and tired of being sick and tired of no big winter storms!
    Who do I have to Sleep with to get a winter storm warning around here! SHEEEEEESH!!!!

    • Three7s February 5, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

      I wouldn’t put any stock in models after yesterdays debacle.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE February 5, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

        What else do we have , the LRC?
        The Inventors of the LRC watch models like a hawk, what else do we have? Crystal balls?

        • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 5:27 pm - Reply

          FYI. I have no idea what a Modoki El Nino is or if it will snow but it sounds cool and neither a regular La Nina or El Nino has been worth a hoot for snow lately.

        • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:29 pm - Reply

          That’s funny–modelitis at it’s finest. It’s the 4th quarter of winter and he’s grab bagging it to salvage a failed winter forecast….

    • Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 4:43 pm - Reply

      HILLARY! ROFL

    • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 5:24 pm - Reply

      Next year. A Modoki El Nino and tons of snow. The 30s were the least snowy decade of the last 120 years here (by far) then followed by the 40s which had the most snow of any decade.

  67. Joe February 5, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

    And this surprises anyone?

  68. Laurie February 5, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

    Gary just said an inch for the metro just like Christmas Eve storm ,ugh…

    • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

      But isn’t this what you should expect? Isn’t this the Christmas Eve storm? Is the LRC flawed or the hope that it is wrong where the flaw is? This LRC has been bad news for those wanting a big storm all along. I think we keep hoping that somehow it will turn out differently but it doesn’t. I will not say that it is impossible for a big one but I am not getting my hopes up. Either I believe this thing and am sticking to it or its a waste of time.

    • Terry February 5, 2018 at 4:55 pm - Reply

      But Gary also said that we storm still needed to be watched for tomorrow . Like he says early in a comment we still not know what this storm wave is Capable of doing until tomorrow.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:32 pm - Reply

        Terry, face it—it’s over…put away the models—they are flawed. Call a friend, play a board game–look to spring.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:57 pm - Reply

      Lets play a new game, Gary said….snow storm, Gary said….the models are converging….Gary said, oops, maybe an inch, lol….

  69. Anonymous February 5, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    Whenever I feel like my fingers need a work out I go to this blog and scroll down really fast, especially on days when snow is talked about. The up arrow is great for when my finger is tired and I want to scroll back to the top to see the lack of hope of snow this winter!

  70. Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

    So last storm was mostly predicted to miss us and it hit us, the next storm was considered likely to hit us and it will at least partially miss us. We are so far from being able to predict the weather in KC

  71. Heat Miser February 5, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

    LoL…yesterday Gary was reduced to boasting how even though everyone blew that forecast, his guy saw it coming in on radar and pointed it out first. ROFL

    • Troy Newman February 5, 2018 at 4:54 pm - Reply

      If you live in a glass house don’t throw stones. I have had to learn that one a few times.

      • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 5:49 pm - Reply

        Its a good thing I don’t live in a glass house

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:33 pm - Reply

      That’s funny….

  72. Jack February 5, 2018 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    Gfs has 3 inch band north of KC, not much for KC.

    • Georgie February 5, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

      How far north? I’m in Leavenworth.

      • Richard February 5, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

        Northern MN/Canadian border.
        Unless it has a long tail I think it will miss Leavenworth, Lawrence and Iowa

  73. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 5:09 pm - Reply

    Idk why anyone would have taken Gary’s bait yesterday talking about how this could be a big storm for Kc… the first one over 4” in years. Friends of mine that don’t even pay attention to the weather heard about it as well, so good job Gary… work those ratings sir 😒

    • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 5:12 pm - Reply

      Yeah, well at least two people on this blog sure did! Hide the sharp objects from the snowies

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:34 pm - Reply

      Phillip, all for ratings, all for traffic….the fake snowstorm and many fell for it….

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 6:24 pm - Reply

      Phillip
      Gary’s bait yesterday ? All week !

      • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:28 pm - Reply

        Richard, sadly it won’t be the last time…..

  74. Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 5:09 pm - Reply

    Come on guys we can wishcast this storm to hit us again!!! I believe! 😉

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:35 pm - Reply

      I BELIEVE, I BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!

  75. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 5:29 pm - Reply

    Anyone just watch the weather on the 5pm news? This thing has poof written all over it… two separate bands of snow supposed to come in…. Is this thing even a storm? Gary said these bands have a way of sitting over the city almost like a lake effect snow band lol… Gary we want the snow just as bad as you, but I don’t think this is our year. That winter forecast is sure in jeopardy

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 5:48 pm - Reply

      I think you were warning poof before yesterdays snow…sorry, you have no credibility.

  76. Phishntyme February 5, 2018 at 5:31 pm - Reply

    NWS issued WWA but its quite an odd outline of counties…Wonder if they messed up coloring the map lol

  77. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 5:34 pm - Reply

    Channel 5’s in house was showing 4.9” downtown tomorrow when all is said and done. I feel like no one has any idea what’s going to happen

  78. Michael February 5, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

    When I feel my fingers need a workout I come to this blog and scroll down really fast..especially on days when there is talk of snow. When i need a break I press the up bottom to go back to the top to see that this winter is like the last two. Then I start scrolling back to the bottom to see if there any new comments with updated snow maps. I do 6 reps everyday, 3 reps per hand, to keep my finger muscles balanced. Thankful the up bottom works well for when I am tired.

    • Emaw February 5, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

      Haha, outstanding!

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 6:27 pm - Reply

      Lol

    • Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 6:28 pm - Reply

      Outstanding!

  79. HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    Hmmm..wonder why Gary has avoided commenting on this blog all day. No updates?

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

      Heat, I feel for you snow lovers, all joking aside. He should be on here, especially after he went out on a limb like he did….

    • Jason February 5, 2018 at 6:04 pm - Reply

      Maybe because some of you on here seem to think you know way more about the weather than he does. Predicting snow in the KC area is difficult. Give the guy a break if he can’t tell the difference between an inch and four inches. Its not always cut and dry. I think we have all learned by now, to expect very little for snow.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:21 pm - Reply

        Jason, predicting the weather anywhere in the Midwest is difficult, not just, KC. He made the prediction, he can take it….

  80. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    Hate to say but I think the models have a good handle on this thing now.

    18z GFS is so this winter’s LRC it hurts.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:23 pm - Reply

      Remember yesterday, someone was saying “BOOM,” and “YAHTZEE” when discussing the upcoming blizzard. So now, I say to you: Boom, Yahtzee, Poof, Poof, Poof!!!!!!

      • ClassyCat February 5, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

        What’s your point? To gloat that whoever said that and their enthusiasm won’t come to fruition? I don’t get it.

        • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 6:37 pm - Reply

          to be a di*k …that’s tdogg…hes got multiple aliases and no life. LoL…what a loser.

          • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

            Not me Robert, or do you go by Robbie, or Bob? Believe it or not, there are others who don’t care about you or your sick snow obsessions. You’re probably a middle aged, single dude, who lives in his moms old house and clings to the “good ole days.” Get a life Robert! Lmao!

            • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

              LoL….dude, you pay money to come troll a weather blog….it doesn’t get much more pathetic than that. You obviously are an unhappy loser whose only hope is to try to make others feel worse than you do. LoL..you being you is your punishment…it’s severe but just.

              • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:42 pm

                Heat, it doesn’t cost anything to be on this blog anymore…

              • Richard February 5, 2018 at 7:48 pm

                Heat, hello, where are you
                Pay blog ?
                You’re spending too much time on here.

              • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 7:53 pm

                LMAO!!! huh Heat?

          • Richard February 5, 2018 at 7:11 pm - Reply

            Heat
            Not very observant are you
            It’s not Tdogg. It’s Bluetooth.
            Sometimes it’s like coming into a chamber of horrors here.
            But Aryl keeps it entertaining.

            • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:31 pm - Reply

              Nobody should ever get hurt on this board. It’s ok to have good natured fun….

            • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 7:37 pm - Reply

              Tdogg is someone else, not me. Sorry.

              • Richard February 5, 2018 at 7:45 pm

                Yeah, I know.
                Ok, I was telling Heat that Aryl is you, Bluetooth.
                Heat was saying that Aryl was Tdogg.

                Will the REAL Aryl/Bluetooth please stand up.

              • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 8:07 pm

                Is Tdogg MuKu? I don’t know. Is it Dale?? I remember Dale form years ago. Aryl is not me.

              • Richard February 5, 2018 at 8:31 pm

                Yeah. Bluetooth you are Aryl.
                Same style. Same mannerism. Same.

        • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

          It’s really not gloating–told the same story the whole time, good and consistent–it’s fair that way….

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 6:36 pm - Reply

      No they don’t, Gary just said on tv still very hard to tell where the heavy bands of snow will set up.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:42 pm - Reply

        Oh boy, Gary said………..

        • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 7:23 pm - Reply

          and channel five, and the nws, and channel 4, and channel 9, and WIBW, and…just stop, you are embarrassing yourself

          • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

            Heat, who’s embarrassing who?? Get a life—and a hair cut–spring will be here soon. Can you hear the claps of thunder?? Boom!!! Yahtzee!!!! Booommmmm!!!

            • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 7:34 pm - Reply

              Shhh troll, and quit changing your name…it doesn’t hide your misery.

              • Bluetooth February 5, 2018 at 7:38 pm

                Heat mizer, who are you talking to??? Why the bad attitude?

              • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:45 pm

                Troll?? Ha- judging by your picture, you resemble a gnome

        • Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 7:24 pm - Reply

          LMAO!!

          • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 7:42 pm - Reply

            Go away Muku.

            • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

              Who is Muku? Hawaiian??

      • Terry February 5, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

        I heard that to heat.

        • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

          Huh???? What are you trying to say?????

  81. Emaw February 5, 2018 at 6:14 pm - Reply

    Radar and your window will tell the tale tomorrow, just chill and let ‘er eat.

    • Adam Taylor February 5, 2018 at 6:42 pm - Reply

      Pleasant Hill radar is down for 3 days 🙁 The timing is comical.

      • Richard February 5, 2018 at 7:17 pm - Reply

        But they will be using the Topeka radar

  82. JoeK February 5, 2018 at 6:53 pm - Reply

    I am thoroughly enjoying the wealth of knowledge coming from all the expert meteorologist on this blog today 😀

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

      Yeah, Boom!!, Yahtzee!!!, Pooooooofffff!!!!! and these were expletives, free of charge of course, that were used on this blog…..

  83. Steve February 5, 2018 at 7:02 pm - Reply

    Weather Channel rep in KC NOW.

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      lol..why?

      • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 7:51 pm - Reply

        For the blizzard, of course.

    • Phillip February 5, 2018 at 7:28 pm - Reply

      Is the weather around the rest of the US really that boring?! 😂

  84. Stl78 February 5, 2018 at 7:35 pm - Reply

    Its crazy what a little snow does to this blog! No matter what side of the fence u r on.

  85. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 7:51 pm - Reply

    Man, don’t look at the HRR. Looks even more pathetic than the NAM. Flurries at best. Wow.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018020600/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

  86. Bobbie February 5, 2018 at 7:55 pm - Reply

    This “storm” is laughable. These comments are literally laughable

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      Boom!! Yahtzee!!! Where did the model readers go? I was kind of hoping for the latest run of the GFS, NAM, Euro, Gem, etc…..

  87. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

    Do we think we can go 5 years without a 3″ snow at KCI?

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      Boom!! Yahtzee!!! Yes we can….

      • Fred Nolan February 5, 2018 at 9:50 pm - Reply

        Shouldnt it have been…
        Aryl Ezakg

        Just saying.

  88. MattinLeavenworth February 5, 2018 at 8:11 pm - Reply

    Snow comes to Kansas City to die

    • Joe February 5, 2018 at 8:47 pm - Reply

      This!!

  89. KS Jones February 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    The NWS in Topeka hasn’t backed down from their forecast yet, and we’re directly in the middle of the predicted 2 to 4″ swath.
    https://www.weather.gov/images/top/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png?27fafb9ef7bc159b4f97941c706222b5

    • Grambo624 February 5, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

      Well, I guess that depends on your location. It’s 1-3 for KC. Dusting – 1 at my location in Lee’s Summit.

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

      I am just catching up with the blog, and I see a couple of trolls that have been on the loose. Trolling is prohibited.

      Now, I liked the NAM believe it or not. There was a trend in the right direction. I know it is nearing the bottom of the 9th inning here, but the wave was much more impressive than what I showed in the blog this morning. And, it is coming in line with the wave on Christmas Eve. We are in that part of the pattern.

      I will be doing a Facebook Live around 9 PM, so join in the conversation.

      Gary

      • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 8:55 pm - Reply

        BRING IT!!!!

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

      Good luck. I do like the graphis from TOP. We will see how this sets up in the morning. It will be time to do rules #1 and #2 of forecasting (In Today’s Blog) after sunrise.

      GAry

      • Richard February 5, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

        But Gary that one on TOP says noon-3 start time.
        Tonight on the air you said 5 pm !
        Noon-3 will make for a messy rush hour

        Do you still hold with 5 pm ?

        • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

          Like he can time it out that specifically

          • Richard February 5, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

            Heat
            Tonight, on air, he said guaranteed that Tuesday daytime would be dry. No snow.
            He said it. And I beliebe he is right. TOP is not correct on the timing

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

      that shows kc in the 1-3 swath dude

  90. MikeL February 5, 2018 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    00z NAM has the heavy snow in Arkansas through 36 hrs.

    They need a weather2020 tour bus for road trips.

    • Richard February 5, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

      Lol !
      Yeah! I’d buy a ticket to go see so,e real snow !

  91. Anonymous February 5, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    Welp. 0Z nam shows a small band of 2-3 inches north and absolutely nothing from about kci South.

  92. Kstater February 5, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    Welp. 0Z nam shows a small band of 2-3 inches north and absolutely nothing from about kci South. I think the nam hasn’t been great this year but the trend is definitely bad. I think this will be a event we will just have to wait and watch radar trends tomorrow.

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

      The NAM also had nothing anywhere close to KC yesterday. I liked the trend on this NAM run.

      Gary

    • Kstater February 5, 2018 at 8:37 pm - Reply

      Well I just looked at the amounts not anything else. Going back looking at energy itself Gary has a point. Wave is stronger. Still think it may be a small band of very heavy snow surrounded by almost nothing.

  93. Richard February 5, 2018 at 8:41 pm - Reply

    So over 300 comments yesterday and blog worked fine.
    Tonight it is slower loading. But Bob, please don’t add plugins again.
    We will b patient

  94. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 8:44 pm - Reply

    Blog been working perfectly fine all day and since they fixed it the other day

  95. Bobbie February 5, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

    Test

  96. Richard February 5, 2018 at 8:47 pm - Reply

    Just loading slow

  97. Tdogg February 5, 2018 at 8:51 pm - Reply

    Huh?

  98. Donald February 5, 2018 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    Working good.

  99. Ryan February 5, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    I have to give Bill in Lawrence credit, he has been calling for 1-2 inches for the better part of a week. I’m betting that verifies.

  100. Remembercody February 5, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    I use Storm App powered by The Weather Company (Weather Underground/Intellicast) and in the app for my location here in Independence we have a Significant Weather Potential “Alert” for Heavy Snowfally from 2/6/18 1:00PM until 2/7/18 12:00AM.

    WHY?!….

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

      LOL…snowfally

  101. JoeK February 5, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

    Bill,

    I still think you and I will be on the right side of this systems prediction when it is all over said and done. If not, we can have a crow lunch. It is amazing how accurate the LRC really has been this year. It is my sincerest hope that those who don’t understand it or simply refuse to , take the time to learn. I have not been able to predict the exact amounts and locations, but I have known when and where to expect a system. That, in and of itself, is pretty darn amazing and something we couldn’t do with certainty 20+ years a go. One only has to go back in the blog archives for proof. Respectfully, let’s enjoy the ride over the next 24 hours!

  102. MattinLeavenworth February 5, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

    Gary where is your live feed?

  103. Donald February 5, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply

    Loading slow.

  104. Eric February 5, 2018 at 9:13 pm - Reply

    Amateur weather enthusiasts here. I thought the models really didn’t matter this close to the storm. Except the RAP close range model? Haven’t watch any weather channels for predictions, wait for lezaks FB live but I’m gonna go with a small 1-2 inches in my neck of the woods (PV/OPKS) with the potential for this to surprise us with higher amounts (yes that’s some wishcasting haaha) anything can happen though

  105. Richard February 5, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

    Oh boy
    Gary just WENT OFF on his facebook live feed to the comments.
    He literally went off on them. He lost it.
    So many were telling him please get to the forecast when he was explaining about yesterday and the models.
    He blasted them. So rude. Not professional at all.

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 9:34 pm - Reply

      I agree he lost it a little…but some of the comments were just plain rude and disrespectful.

      • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 9:36 pm - Reply

        lol…no, many didn’t say “please”, they were like, “HELLO, TOMORROWS FORECAST”, or “DON’T CARE..GET TO TOMORROW” Don’t misrepresent what happened.

  106. Josh February 5, 2018 at 9:24 pm - Reply

    I’m going with 1-3″ right now, will see in the morning 5-7am if I want to change it, but 1-3″ covers my ass lol. People get so intense on some of their comments, both snow lovers and haters. Calm down, it’s a weather blog that is supposed to be fun. No need to be a keyboard warrior. lol 🙂

  107. Richard February 5, 2018 at 9:24 pm - Reply

    Criticism. He can’t take it. He needs to retire.

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

      criticism is one thing…outright rudeness and disrespect is another…he doesn’t have to do live blogs with us you know

    • JoeK February 5, 2018 at 9:36 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      WHAT has gotten into you today. You are on a Gary bashing roll! The comments on this blog were out of control and down right ridiculous

      • Laurie February 5, 2018 at 9:40 pm - Reply

        Amen!! Richard is one of the trolls Gary was talking about. He was not rude at all going off on that person . They were the rude ones.

    • JoeK February 5, 2018 at 9:48 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      Retire? are you serious? one of the BEST meteorologists in the country and a leading pioneer in the weather industry needs to retire because he is standing up to the internet bullies that live to troll and incite chaos? I will give you credit, you are normally good at taking a step back and analyzing your comments when a bit out of control and Richard, I think this is one of those times.

    • Paul February 5, 2018 at 9:56 pm - Reply

      Is it dark down there in moms basement??? It was criticism, it was a personal attack.

      • Paul February 5, 2018 at 10:03 pm - Reply

        Not criticism

  108. Morgan February 5, 2018 at 9:28 pm - Reply

    People need to relax on here. Tons of negativity in the comments lately.

  109. Nat February 5, 2018 at 9:35 pm - Reply

    To be fair there were very rude comments on the live fb. I understand how Gary would have gotten upset! Everyone no matter what channel you watch is having a hay day with this storm and I think all Mets are doing a great job with the information at hand.

  110. Morgan February 5, 2018 at 9:38 pm - Reply

    Nothing on the GFS. Snow north and south and a goose egg here.

  111. Heavysnow February 5, 2018 at 9:46 pm - Reply

    St Louis Meteorologists have no clue what is happening with this storm…..so many different forecasts and NWS St Louis has changed their forecast like twice a day. Maybe because we actually had snow at my house from Dec 24th….I think we get some snow and maybe can pull out a 3 inch snowfall in St Louis area.

    I really think its funny how somebody will put up a “model” run during their forecast and pretty much accept that its what is going to really happen.

  112. Kstater February 5, 2018 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    The 0Z GFS
    Bad: It shows zero snow 1-70 and south
    Good: the band of snow is much heavier with 3-5 inches.

  113. Nat February 5, 2018 at 10:03 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    With new data that just came out does that change your thoughts on anything? I will be flying into kci tomorrow evening and a bit concerned i may run into major delays during my connecting flight heading to kci. Thanks for all your hard work and passion for weather. I remember years and years ago my grandfather set his tv to come on every morning at 5:30 am. He watched you everyday! A few days after Ameristar opened my family and I were there and my grandfather saw you and started jumping up and down in excitement seeing you in person for the first time. My grandfather passed away in September but just thought I would share that memory I have that I will always remember!

    • Gary February 5, 2018 at 10:27 pm - Reply

      There may be some delays if a band of heavy snow forms, but will it? The timing is most likely tomorrow evening. And, thank you for the story and memory. Let’s track this tomorrow.

      Gary

      • Nat February 5, 2018 at 10:28 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary!

  114. Val February 5, 2018 at 10:03 pm - Reply

    Ignore the negativity Gary and fellow weather enthusiast bloggers! People literally don’t have lives to live if they are trolling a weather blog. Go find a productive hobby ya lazy trolls! LOL.

  115. Richard February 5, 2018 at 10:10 pm - Reply

    I’ll take those deserved lumps and hit the sack.
    I was very wrong today on too many fronts. Very rude of me.
    I am sorry to Gary and everyone who I offended. Very sorry.

    Ready for Spring.
    But more snow would be nice.

  116. Adam February 5, 2018 at 10:17 pm - Reply

    GFS has been consistently showing an ice storm for this weekend. Time to move on from tomorrow’s non-event, and focus on the next vanishing storm!

    Also, the Euro is vastly different than the GFS.

    • HEAT MISER February 5, 2018 at 10:45 pm - Reply

      LoL…if you don’t mind, lets deal with one storm at a time. Tomorrow first, then move on to the weekend.

  117. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 10:31 pm - Reply

    Models won’t do much good this close. Watch where the snow bands set up tomorrow. Guarantee the models don’t have them placed 100% accurately tonight.

  118. Mr. Pete February 5, 2018 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    I can’t believe the melt down on here today over a potential 1.5 inches of snow. Wow.

  119. Jack February 5, 2018 at 11:05 pm - Reply

    Gfs and nam are both consistent with 3-4 inches between just north of kc and st. joe. My prediction now is dusting-1 south of i-70, 1-2 for the metro, 2-4 between north kc and st. joe.

    Gary, I loved your humor during the video. I think we all need to realize that for passionate snow lovers, it has been extremely frustrating the past 4 years. With hopes going up with each storm followed by being let down. I am so over these 1-2 inch snow storms. What I really want to see is a classic 10-12 inch snow storm that we saw February 4th, 2014 when my house got 12 inches of snow in 4 hours!!! It was incredible. While the fb video may have lacked some professionalism, I understand Gary’s frustrations.

    Here’s to a good night’s sleep and to snow tomorrow. Good night.

    Jack

  120. Jsquibble February 6, 2018 at 12:11 am - Reply

    Snow is already breaking out across central and western ks. Could this be a sign? Starting earlier than expected?

    • Weatherman February 6, 2018 at 1:24 am - Reply

      That was always the case. Snow gets going across Colorado and SW Kansas. Moves ME into central Kansas and up towards Nebraska/Iowa

  121. f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 4:52 am - Reply

    The core of snow is about 35 miles south of where the NAM placement has it. OMG could it actually bulls eye KC??!

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DDC-N0Q-0-6

    • Three7s February 6, 2018 at 5:52 am - Reply

      Nah, it’s going ENE, leaving us on the southern end as NAM/GFS said last run.

  122. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 6:55 am - Reply

    Good thing three7s isn’t a met lol

    • Three7s February 6, 2018 at 7:58 am - Reply

      That’s not what the radar says? Looks like it to me.

  123. f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 7:10 am - Reply

    So the HRRR is showing that the main batch will fall apart and a 2ndary band will form right over the city. It moves through fast so only about 1/2″ of snow accumulation – but I wonder if this feature may be a bit stronger we could see 1-2″?

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018020611/hrrr_asnow_ncus_18.png

  124. f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 7:11 am - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018020611/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

    ^ The snow band shifting through the city – in/out in about 2 hrs

  125. Phillip February 6, 2018 at 7:19 am - Reply

    Still looking at those models…. useless this close. Window and radar are the only things that will be accurate today.

    • f00dl3 February 6, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

      The HRRR is actually made for this exact reason – short term “now-casting”

      • Phillip February 6, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

        So they say… still don’t think they handle storms very well. Radar is your best friend today

  126. Mr. Pete February 6, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    No new blog?

  127. Tim February 6, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    Could be wrong– but all the model I am looking at are showing the snow at west to be much further north or have a much more northerly component than what it shows now on radar– or is this just wishful thinking?

  128. Stl78 February 6, 2018 at 7:58 am - Reply

    Dusting to an in for most of kc is my forecast. 1 to 3 points north of 435 corridor. An isolated 4 in not out of the question in a heavier band

  129. Matt February 6, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    I hope the irony of the name of the blog, the title of this blog post and the discussions we are having aren’t lost on anyone.

  130. SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply
  131. SnowCommander February 6, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply
  132. Kstater February 6, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Gary said in his Facebook live that he expected it to be sunny first thing this morning here. He said if it was cloudy that is a good sign that it’s strengthening. It’s cloudy here in Lawrence so hopefully a good sign.

  133. Adam Taylor February 6, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    There’s a blog up at the KSHB website for today.

    • Tdogg February 6, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

      Uh oh!! It’s coming!

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