The Trend is Up On Super Bowl Sunday

/The Trend is Up On Super Bowl Sunday

The Trend is Up On Super Bowl Sunday

Good Super Bowl Sunday bloggers,

Well, maybe just maybe we have some exciting weather to discuss. The first sign comes today;  Snow is heading towards KC at 7:30 this morning and it appears it will hold together.  The second sign; there is a trend in the models that is good, and it fits the LRC, as if you look back into early November and around Christmas Eve, there is a disturbance that should cross the Kansas/Missouri border around Tuesday night, and it is there on the latest models.  If we get the first one today, even just a dusting or snow showers with snow blowing around in the road, this would not be a swing and a miss, as Gary has been using as an analogy.  It may be a bunt single. Then, the second system, the bigger storm system appears we will be swinging for the fences, or maybe our football players will be opening up in the end zone for a TD catch.  The trend is rather good on this second storm. And, there is even a third one showing up for next weekend. But, we can’t swing and miss at the first two, or we will be in jeopardy of striking out again.

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: There is clearly a disturbance in central Nebraska, the little twist between Omaha and North Platte, that is heading southeast at about 50 mph. The area of snow is mostly light, but since the disturbance is alive, the snow should hold together and we expect it to cross our region between 9 AM and 2 PM.

1

The current track of the snow puts it into KC around 930 AM. It will exit 1-2 PM and we expect mostly the snow to blow around on the roads with a few locations seeing up to 1/4″ and slick spots.

2

Here is the KC weather forecast timeline:

3

Now, let’s talk about the second chance of snow, Tuesday. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in 4 years and the trend is up on the overnight data.

MONDAY MORNING: It will be dry and cold with lows 10°-15° and there is a system for tomorrow that will track mostly across Nebraska and Iowa.

4

MONDAY AFTERNOON: The storm to the north may clip far northern Missouri with a dusting to 2″ of snow, while here in KC it is mostly cloudy with highs 35°-40°. The system to the north will bring a new cold blast Monday night, which sets the stage for the Tuesday event.

5

TUESDAY MORNING: We will be monitoring, hopefully, an increasing area of snow in Kansas that should arrive here by noon.

6

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: Look at this! Is it possible? Widespread snow with some heavy pockets. Well, the trend is back up and that is good, but it is far from set in stone. The storm could be weaker, the storm may still get it’s act together farther south and east. So, let’s just keep watching the data.

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SNOWFALL POTENTIAL: Yes, the latest data has 5.6″ of snow in KC which would, by far, make it the biggest snowstorm since February 4, 2014. This is NOT our official forecast at this time, but the potential is there. Stay Tuned!

9

Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!  Please Don’t Drink and Drive.  Get that designated driver.  Gary will be working tonight as there will be a huge audience for the Super Bowl and “This Is Us”.  He will update the blog later.

Jeff Penner

2018-02-05T05:48:14+00:00February 4th, 2018|General|318 Comments

318 Comments

  1. Mike February 4, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Yahtzee!!!! It is time for some snow.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

      Mike, I love the game Yahtzee, but please, do not associate a fun game with the possibility of a missed snow storm, lol.

  2. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    I would wait until tomorrow mornings model runs before jumping on this one. They have flip flopped way to much this year. I don’t trust anything but the NAM and HRRR at this point, and NAM has been giving us next to nothing even the 06z run.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018020406/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

  3. KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    Currently: Light snow, windy & 12° with a light dusting on the ground; visibility one mile.
    Radar indicates much more to come.

    • Gary February 4, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

      Where is this KS Jones?

      Thanks,

      Gary

      • KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

        Midway between Manhattan & Marysville.
        Our walkways and roads are now white.

  4. Ellen February 4, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    Is it terrible that the first thing I look at when I wake up is this blog?? My kiddos got new sleds for Christmas…..so…..we are doing “snow dances” around here. Hoping Tuesday holds together. 🤞🤞🤞🤞

  5. Terry February 4, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    See Some of you didn’t believe me that it will be coming back.

    • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

      It never left and some areas will get missed, maybe it will all fall in your backyard Terry

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

      Still don’t Terry. Not going to get excited until the real snow is falling on Tuesday.

      • Joe February 4, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

        And remember this isn’t the “official” forecast

        • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

          Of course it’s not the official forecast-that comes tomorrow when it all falls apart like humpty dumpty, lol.

  6. Bsmike February 4, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    Mike your Yahtzee is cracking me up!!!

    • Mike February 4, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

      Thank you!

  7. Bsmike February 4, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

    It would be the perfect day if only YOUR Chiefs were playing my COWBOYS today. 😔

    • Gary February 4, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

      Hey bloggers, when you look at the NAM please try to look at where the wave is at 500 mb around 63 hours. Remember how I have been saying “slightly stronger” and we get this, “slightly weaker” and we don’t. This NAM has the wave perfectly placed, separated, and slightly stronger. This model FAILS at producing the right parameters to produce snow. So, hang in there. I like the trend a lot for Tuesday.

      And, snow is heading our way now. I am working tonight, and we will go over the trends on the 10 PM newscast after This Is Us on NBC.

      Gary

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

      I think there’s a better chance of a blizzard occurring in KC than that happening.

  8. Steve February 4, 2018 at 8:44 am - Reply

    Gary,
    What are you thinking for snow on Tuesday in downtown Kc area?

  9. Steve February 4, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

    Pretty good flurries now SWW of Hiawatha 12 miles getting white.

  10. Lary Gezak February 4, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Well whattya know. We should have listened to Terry. The GFS brought it back!

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Larry Gezak, listen to Terry, what? Lol

  11. Stl78 February 4, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    Too early imo. See what 12z euro says

  12. Elaine Watson February 4, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    I am ready to be called crazy but it seems to me the early model runs are usually better early in the day and the evening run crush our hopes. I have noticed this a few days out on more than one hopeful snow event this season. Anyone else notice this trend? I said usually as in more often than not. In any case hoping like crazy for some significant snow. Considering our last several years significant means 2+. 🙂

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

      Elaine, no, not crazy. I noticed that as well.

  13. Jill February 4, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Light flurries in Topeka. Radar makes it look like there’s a good system coming in. Hope so!!!!!

  14. Urbanity February 4, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    There definitely was a shift south, the latest from the locals are pointing towards snow along and south of Hwy 50, pretty much a Garden City to Hutch line, maybe Mcpherson line. Another thing that is noticeable is the band is considerably more narrow, so it’s feast or famine. Hardly something to get excited about for most of Kansas, but Missery and KC area could have a widespread event.

  15. Michel Casteel February 4, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Flurries in Maryville!
    Michael

  16. ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

    WWA issued Topeka and west. Heavy snow in Manhattan with up to 2 inches today.

  17. Skylar February 4, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    Light snow here in Lawrence; the short term models are showing us getting a half inch to two inches today. The NAM had been indicating this before the GFS, so it might be a sign on which should be trusted for Tuesday.

  18. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    Would it be out of the question to think we could get at least two inches out of today’s snow? Radar looks very promising for KC.

    • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

      That what is being called for already just west of here.

    • Jsquibble February 4, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

      Looks like this is going to be a 1-70 and south snowstorm with 4-6 inches possible

      • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

        Yes trends don’t look good for my area. Really frustrating same area here missed almost all summer getting missed again in the winter. Not sure what it will take to change this pattern the area around St Joseph is stuck in

        • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

          Move.

          Lol

          • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

            Move St Joseph? That’d be what the city needs to get a storm apparently. What out for mean barking dogs kitty cat!!

  19. Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    Steady snow here in lawrence now! The new GFS shows 6”+ on the south side of the city too.

  20. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    Okay, now its 48 hrs ahead…time to start looking at the models…looking good so far! Looking like a widespread event with us in the bulls eye so far. WOOT!!!

  21. ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    That what is being called for already just west of here.

    • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

      Responding to Pete

  22. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    I’m definitely seeing flurries in Prairie Village

  23. Mike February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply
  24. Phillip February 4, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    Gonna be a lot of sad people on here come Tuesday night. This thing is going to fall apart on top of us. Mark my words

    • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

      Well, you may be right, but it’s only because you have a 50/50 chance of your guess being correct. Not bad odds.

      • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 10:26 am - Reply

        Phillip’s entitled to his posts, you’re being awfully mean Kitty cat, did you drink spoiled milk this morning?

        • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

          Aren’t I entitled to my posts Kurt? I didn’t day anything derogatory like you did with spoiled milk comment. I simply stated he may be right because of a guess, which it is. What’s your problem anyway? If I said something demeaning, you’d have a point, but I didn’t. I truly didn’t. You assumed I meant something demeaning without verifying intent and then fired off a barb at me with your spoiled milk comment. Opinion away my friend, but don’t come at me with you crap when you don’t know.

          • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

            Then refrainin from future comments to my posts. Yes I interpreted you reply as mean. I’m sorry if it offended you.

            Just getting frustrating watching as a spectator all the exciting weather misses for over a year and want to be getting the direct impact from winter storms or rain storms up here

            • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

              I understand you’re frustrated with weather. Taking it out on me is immature. Sure, I’ll refrain from responding to your posts as long as you refrain from responding to mine. Don’t half apologize then tell me not to respond to your posts. Either you feel you were in the wrong or you don’t. You can’t have it both ways in my book.

              • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:12 am

                ClassyCat, never mind Kurt-his skin is way too thin. Perhaps he should leave the blog and buy a garden hose.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

        Nah, Classy, barking dogs say 70-30 it poof’s-sorry to burst the bubble….

        • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

          I guess you’re a professional meteorologist then? Opinions are what this blog is about. The number of people on here who pontificate as if they know what is going to happen is comical. Even professional mets don’t know for sure and they are tremendously better at the forecast than you or I. So, if we get the snow, you going to come back on the blog and admit you’re “opinion” was up in smoke? Doubt it.

          • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

            Not for you Aryl. Stupid phone and site jump around on me sometimes

            • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

              I understand. Don’t let it get to you. 🙂

          • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

            Classy, that happens on blogs. It’s fun at times-as long as it doesn’t get personal. There are some thin skinned people on the blog that get mad easily – they call names, get political etc. They can tweak others but when they get tweaked, look out. I just give it back straight and direct. As far as admitting I was wrong? Sure, I’ve had to admit that a lot over the last 50+ years..

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      It does snow in Kansas SOMETIMES there dude…keep that in mind.

  25. Elaine Watson February 4, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    Moderate snowfall here near McLouth. Medium sized flakes. Already a dusting on rock roads.

  26. Blue Flash February 4, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    Snowing now at the Sports Complex.

  27. MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

    We have a nice snow going on up here in leavenworth. Definitely more coming down that I expected.

  28. Snow Miser February 4, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    It’s starting to snow here southeast of the stadiums!

  29. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Wow, winter weather advisory for Lawrence – …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
    AFTERNOON…

    * WHAT…Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
    Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches are expected.

    * WHERE…Portions of central Kansas, east central Kansas, north
    central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

    * WHEN…Until 2 PM today.

  30. Kurt February 4, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

    So since I missed most of the snow today this is the first swing and a miss or now second down and ten?

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

      Kurt, which do you prefer? If your already tired of winter and failed snow storms, then pick “swing and a miss.”

  31. Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

    No snow in Lee’s Summit yet, but my youngest is anxiously awaiting! 🙂

  32. Kelley Lackey February 4, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Accumulation here in Emporia

  33. Terry February 4, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

    It’s snowing hard here in WY CO .

  34. Bill in Lawrence February 4, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Jeff and Gary:

    Happy wintery morning from Washington Creek Valley!! Currently sitting at 23 degrees with stiff north wind and a moderate snow falling…flakes are small but the intensity is good!! As Glenn Quagmire said….dear diary….jackpot!!!! Yes I know this is not going to amount to more than an inch at best but it is still a fun little event and I feel very lucky indeed as a snow lover!!

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary February 4, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

      This snow shows us how bad the models have been. Now, the Canadian model had this the entire time, for the past five days, every run. The others were horrible.

      Gary

      • JoeK February 4, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

        Gary,

        yes it did and it also had the Christmas Eve storm when the other models were waffling

    • Baseball Mike February 4, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

      Bill

      I am just to your west in SE Shawnee County and with all the wind blown snow I measured about 1.5 inches and this wave was stronger than was forecasted by our NWS or the Topeka Mets. They all had Topeka getting a trace at best. Enjoy the snow and let’s hope for more on Tuesday!

      Michael/Topeka/Berryton

      • Baseball Mike February 4, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

        Bill

        An update after the storm was over just a tad over 2 inches.

        Michael

        • Bill in Lawrence February 4, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

          Baseball Mike:

          Happy Sunday!!

          Hope you are still enjoying retirement!!!! 🙂

          I have just at 2 inches….as a snowlover, it is wonderful!! This was for sure a nice “twist”!!!!

          Hope all is well and take care!!

  35. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

    Heaviest snow I’ve seen this year here in Prairie Village.

  36. Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    This is some of the heaviest snow I’ve seen in a while. Visibility getting very low when a gust of wind comes through.

  37. Jess February 4, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but none of the models handled this disturbance well at all. Went from nothing to maybe flurries to up to 2 inches all within 12 hrs. That being said, who knows what will shake out on Tuesday… until Tuesday.

    • JoeK February 4, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

      Jess,

      You are fairly accurate in your observation thus the reason I stuck with my assessment of these 2 systems over performing. The models did not handle the Christmas Eve system well either. For those that still do not see it, today through Sunday is a perfect example of the LRC at work. When watching the models, it is important to look deeper into the trends rather than just surface analyzing them. I still believe some in the KC viewing area will see in excess of 3 inches before these 2 systems exit our area.

  38. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    There was no pre treatment of roads here and zero plows are out. I’m seeing cars slide around outside.

  39. Terry February 4, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    A winter weather Advisory until 3 pm for KC metro area up to one inch they say .

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

      Wow!! Woot, hoot!!!! 1 inch of snow… omg…

  40. Lary Gezak February 4, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    Models did HORRIBLE with today. But let’s enjoy it! February starting off snowy. Around 1″ to 2″ today, and 3-6″ Tuesday

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      Common Mr. Gezak, your alter ego hasn’t yet made the snow an official part of the forecast-not confident yet. Does good at drumming up blogger volume though.

      • Lary Gezak February 4, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

        Let this be an official forecast from 42 Action News: Lary Gezak predicts 3-6″ inches of snow for KC Tuesday, ending the 4 year drought of no 3″ snowstorm!

        • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

          You should’ve made it 14 Action News instead of 41!

        • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

          I suppose it’s possible…

  41. Mary February 4, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

    Moderately heavy snow covering the ground here in Shawnee.

  42. TDogg February 4, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    “This is NOT our official forecast at this time, but the potential is there. Stay Tuned!”
    Of course not. Why would we expect a meteorologist with such a fantastic tool as the “LRC” to make a forecast 48 hours out.
    Craziness…

    • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

      Who are you talking about ??
      Oh, I see, this is not the REAL Tdogg. Alter ego dogg

  43. Emaw February 4, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    Forget the local news, forget the weather apps and the models. The most accurate forecast is at your window everyday! Moderate snow in north Olathe, already a dusting.

  44. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:01 am - Reply

    The radar remains impressive. I’m betting we pick up a couple of quick inches out of this.

  45. George February 4, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

    Nice snow coming down now in OP. 87th and Antioch

  46. Elaine Watson February 4, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Gary or others, How did this happen? Looks like real snow falling. Not the dry iffy flakes of our past events. What atmospheric conditions brought this on at the last minute? Or at the least ramped it up?

  47. DanT February 4, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

    Just got in from my morning run. Started the run with flurries and ended with a burst of heavier snow. Nice dusting and still snowing at a moderate rate.

    • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

      What vicinity are you ?

      • DanT February 4, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

        South Olathe. 2” at this time

  48. Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    So why was today’s snow important ? How does it set the stage for Tuesday’s event ?

  49. Val February 4, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

    Snow coming down in Pleasant Hill Missouri!!! Hoping for some more Tuesday. I’m 27 but I’d still like to be able to do some sledding this year. LOL

  50. Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

    I like that this is happening during the day so we can watch it.
    Is Tuesdays snow going to occur during the day ?

    • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

      Yep, sometime after noon.

  51. Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

    Anyone else see the weather channel saying 3-5 inches for the system today?

    “Cloudy with snow. High 22F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected. Higher wind gusts possible.”

  52. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

    This is piling up QUICK. This could be the biggest snow in three years!!!!

    • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

      Where are you Pete ?

      • Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:41 am - Reply

        Wasn’t sure which Pete you were referring to. If it was me, I am located in Olathe.

        • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

          Mr Pete, yes you. I am in Olathe too

          • Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

            Oh, I’m not “Mr. Pete” with the storm cloud avatar. I’m not sure where he is located. Not sure about where you are in Olathe, but visibility is terrible right now. Not sure if it is due to winds or just the snow coming down so fast, but I can barely see the home just 2 or 3 doors down!

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

      Probably a foot by now, right??

  53. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

    WOO…just came back from HYVee in heavy snow in Lawrence…visibility less than a quarter mile.

    • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Heat
      How are the roads there ? Did they pretreat ?

      • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

        No they didn’t…roads are very slick…saw a couple of people sliding.

  54. Three7s February 4, 2018 at 11:35 am - Reply

    Wow, the models were a complete fail today. NO ONE saw this coming. Never know what could happen in this area.

  55. Melanie February 4, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    So happy I get snow for my birthday!

    • Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

      Happy Birthday !!!

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply

      Happy birthday

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:15 pm - Reply

      Happy, happy birthday!!

  56. KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    The line of snow barreled through at something like 60 MPH, and we are now north of it now.
    Got 2″.

  57. Tdogg February 4, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

    So many emotions for such a minor snow!! Loving it!

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

      Tdogg – “no..NO…DON’T BE HAPPY!!! GRRR, look at me….LOOOK AT ME!!!!!

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

        Heat, snow is like a drug I think–makes people high, lol.

    • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

      Give it a rest, man. This thing was so small on the scale, it was literally an after-thought, and to get 2 inches out of that is pretty unexpected.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:18 pm - Reply

        Sad-people get excited about 2 inches of snow….

  58. Richard February 4, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

    THIS WAS WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT YESTERDAY !! A SURPRISE ACCUMULATING SNOW !!
    WOOT WOOT !!

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Yes…snow coming down heavy at times…I think at least a couple of inches in Lawrence…hard to tell exactly as the snow is blowing around.

      • Tdogg February 4, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

        I hope you and Terry have a play date 😉

        • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:19 pm - Reply

          A play date indeed—and boys, remember to play nice….

        • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

          don’t be jealous grump dogg

          • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

            Now Heat, hopefully there will be a lot of snow come Tuesday…

  59. Pete February 4, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

    Not sure if it is the wind or just how fast the snow is coming down, but it is tough to see houses that are only a couple doors down from me!

    • ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Pete. I was about to say the same thing. A football field at most. My guess is this coming to the end in an hour. Seems like the heaviest is always just before it ends.

      • Pete February 4, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

        Looking at the radar, it appears to be about finished. Still semi-impressed with how quickly this snow piled up. Not too bad for only a couple hours of snow.

  60. Three7s February 4, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    This isn’t going to break the 3-inch streak, but 2 inches is looking good. Far more than everyone thought just this morning.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Three7s, not nearly enough– send out the punt team. Another 3 and out…

  61. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    I’m at Somerset and mission road in Prairie Village KS.

  62. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    Gary said on Facebook he thinks they will issue a Winter Storm Watch for us tomorrow for late Tuesday/Wednesday.

    • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

      I believe it’s been 4 years since we were under one? *hint* *hint*

      • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

        So we are waaaay overdue huh?

  63. Laurie February 4, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    It’s pouring snow in Southern Op um way more than a dusting, love it!!

  64. Terry February 4, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Yes in hope so Heat

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Huh?? Play time….

  65. ClassyCat February 4, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    I know we aren’t Minneapolis or the Rocky Mountains, but it is really amazing we haven’t had 3 plus inches of snow in 4 years. That’s hard to do here.

  66. Terry February 4, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

    This May have been one of these twist that we didn’t know about to the Pattern oh boy I love it.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:22 pm - Reply

      Yep, the 1-2 inch twist. Woot, woot, hoot!!! The snow drought is dead!!!!!

  67. Pete February 4, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    Here in NW Olathe, I think we definitely received 2 inches, so far. No grass is showing through the snow and roads are completely covered.

  68. Carl February 4, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Close to an inch on the plaza!

  69. RobertCali February 4, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    Why did you post a snowfall accumulation map but then put that this is not your “official” forecast?!?

    • Matt Maisch February 4, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

      He did it because the map he showed is based upon a computer model. Just because that model is projecting that amount of snow doesn’t mean that’s what Gary is forecasting officially. It’s just one piece of information.

  70. MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    So is the snowflake contest going to end today? If not I assume by Tuesday night it will. Here is what I would like to know, how many people are still in the contest? Did anyone on here pick Feb for the first inch?

    Snow is ending up here in Leavenworth. Most of the roads and all the parking lots are solid white.

    • Matt Maisch February 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Contest ended a while back.

    • choppy February 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Contest has been over for a few weeks

      • MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

        No joke? Man I missed it then. Oh well…guess there is always next year.

  71. Morgan February 4, 2018 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    Some people saying they’ve only gotten an inch. At least two here and still coming down.

  72. Troy Newman February 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    This storm produced almost identical results to the storm on Dec 23 for me. Both dumped 3″ of snow which came down fairly heavy but the storm was moving at such a rate that it held accumulations in check. I woke up at 6 am and it had just started here and by 10:30 it was over with the snow in KC (220 miles away). I remember the Christmas storm acting just like that with moderate to heavy snow for a few hours and bitterly cold temps (8 degrees here now).

    • MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

      What KC needs is about 4 hours of thundersnow.

    • f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

      Boom.

      So why does everyone think we’re gonna get any more than 1.5″ on TUE (or WED)?

      Insanity. Doing the same thing expecting different results.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

        And that surprises you in some way, lol.

      • JoeK February 4, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

        foodl3,

        Boom? are you being serious? Yes, I believe somebody in the viewing area will receive more than an inch and a half between now and Tuesday

        • f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 12:58 pm - Reply

          Yeah I am being somewhat serious. Sure maybe someone may get lucky and get 3″ but I really don’t see anything different. Same old stuff. Cold air is blasting in stronger than the models initialize it.

  73. Morgan February 4, 2018 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    The EURO is weak for Tuesday. Couple of inches it looks like. So it’s the GFS, GEM vs. EURO, NAM.

  74. George February 4, 2018 at 12:30 pm - Reply

    Just did a quick measurement – back deck had 2″, front yard had 2 1/2″ on top of grass so I would say 2″ total. Here in OP – 87th & Antioch

  75. George February 4, 2018 at 12:31 pm - Reply

    And it looks like it has stoppedd

  76. DanT February 4, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    This reminds me of a MCS event we see in the spring/ summer months. The winter weather advisory would be our severe thunderstorm watch.

  77. Lauren February 4, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    Lots of snow in Lee’s Summit! We have about 1″ on the ground, with grass, cars, and parking lot all fully covered. It’s still lightly snowing but it appears to be slowing down.

  78. Skylar February 4, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

    About 2.33” by downtown Lawrence over the course of 3 hours. Not that bad, really.

  79. choppy February 4, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    Wellington/Odessa area dusting at best.

  80. Eric February 4, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    So does this snow give us a better chance of the possible snowstorm holding together for tuesday?

  81. Doug February 4, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

    Just shy of 2″ around 143rd and Switzer. More than a dusting for sure. Didn’t see this one coming!

  82. Weatherman February 4, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

    Man, the models did a very poor job with this storm. Just looked at the 3knam last night and did had this sucker breaking apart and staying across the St.Joe area.

    Close to 2 inches of snow at 119th and Lone Elm in Olathe

  83. Mike Myers February 4, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    87th and Lackman, Lenexa, KS we measured right at 2.5 in several locations on the deck tables and in the yard. Snow has now stopped.

  84. Mike Myers February 4, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    87th and Lackman, Lenexa, KS we measured right at 2.5 in several locations on the deck tables and in the yard. Snow has now stopped.

  85. MikeL February 4, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    Picked up 2.5″ in SW Topeka.

  86. Freezemiser February 4, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    And….you’re welcome!

    Loving the snow:)

  87. Kurt February 4, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    1 inch here near St Joseph, does this mean the Tuesday system will be further south thank currently modeled? Not sure if the snow and cold will impact where the boundary sets up.

    This makes out 5th event of the winter all under 1.5 inches each

  88. Adam February 4, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    12z Euro gives us an inch on Tuesday.

  89. Three7s February 4, 2018 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    Got about 2 inches in Independence.

  90. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    The miracle Little storm has pretty much end here in Prairie Village

  91. Snow Miser February 4, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    About 2-1/4 inches a few miles southeast of the stadiums.

  92. Richard February 4, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    what did Gary say to yesterday ? Did he rhink we would get this much ? Was it a wurprise to him ?
    He did say the Canadian had this thing pegged for 5 days.
    I think he works tonight.
    What has the Canadian been saying about Tuesdays event ?

    • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

      The Canadian model was giving us decent totals, but today, it’s given us diddly. At the moment, the GFS is the outlier giving us 3-6 inches area wide. NAM, EURO, UKMET, and CMC(Canadian) all give us around an inch or less. It will be another nowcasting situation like this storm was. The models have been awful all year.

      The one thing I worry about with this snow is that it might have a tendency to push things further south for Tuesday. That is not good for us.

      • Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 1:12 pm - Reply

        We don’t know that yet so you can’t say that lol. Never give up talk to you?

        • Richard February 4, 2018 at 1:18 pm - Reply

          Terry
          Be nice

          • Terry February 4, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

            It’s not me Richard

            • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

              Apologies if that wasn’t you. Looks like another troll masquerading as “anonymous” pretending to be you.

            • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 5:04 pm - Reply

              Oh, yes it is!!!!

        • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

          I ignore just about everything you say because most of it is completely incoherent, but I’ll bite. If you want to hold optimism for snow, more power to you, but when you criticize someone for saying what they think, what does that make you? You seem obsessed with proving everyone “wrong” about it snowing. Why do you even care so much? If it snows, hey that’s awesome! If it doesn’t, it is what it is. You need to relax and enjoy the snow we have now and stop caring so much when someone comments about why it may or may not snow as much as you’d like.

          • Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

            Lol

      • Richard February 4, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

        Right, something like when t-storms that happen in the mornings sometimes takes the energy out of anything re-developing later in the day.
        Afraid now this one did not set the stage for Tuesday. It has zapped it or steered it away from us.

        Funny how this one barreled in unexpectedly, and the more anticipated one for Tuesday might not happen at all.
        Lol !

        4 yrs ago today was our last big one. 8 inches.

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

      Richard here You go the Canadian model to me it looks like a https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=scus&pkg=asnow 4 to 7 inches on the 12z

      • f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 1:15 pm - Reply

        Canadian is flawed because it has 2″ of those 7″ falling Monday morning. No other forecast model is predicting snow tomorrow morning.

  93. Phillip February 4, 2018 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    1-2” here in grain valley

  94. Richard February 4, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    Nice to see mets admit when they are wrong.

    JL on facebook 30 min ago :
    “When I’m wrong I own up to it…and I WAS wrong today and I apologize. I was expecting some snow…I was expecting slick roads to develop…but I was not expecting this. I underestimated the strength of the cold air combined with a disturbance coming through. The cold air created a fluffier snow…that accumulated quicker than I thought. It’s a snow globe outside right now and it will wind down soon. Again I’m sorry. Joe”

  95. NoBeachHere February 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Just leftover flurries in South Central Liberty.
    Maybe 1/2 inch.

  96. Tim February 4, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

    Definitely close to 3inches here in Lone jack. But very very fluffy and easy to clear.

  97. Bill in Lawrence February 4, 2018 at 1:12 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Sunday again trot you sir!!

    Picked up around 2 inches here in Washington Creek Valley which brings me up to around 9 inches of frozen precip for the season. As a snowlover it was absolutely beautiful working/walking outside this morning!! We for sure got the “twist” with this storm. Last time through it was a wave that just brought cold air and no precip (unless this is the Christmas Eve wave and Tuesday is the 26th wave..)…whatever the case, the snow was much more intense this time through for sure.

    I will still stick to 1-2 inches for Tuesday’s event as I think that is the safest bet all things considered. However, foodl3 asked why one could think we could get more than 2 inches. Again, I would respectfully argue that there is a 30% chance that we get the 3 plus amount. There is always the possibility of a twist and this is the best time of the pattern to produce one. So there is for sure support in the LRC for a 3 inch snow event in my humble opinion. One example of a twist I will give is the Christmas Eve blizzard in 2009…in cycle 3 that was a rain snow mix…we had a twist in cycle 2. The chance may not be that great, but to argue that this pattern cannot produce a snow greater than 3 inches I think is a bit premature. Just my huimble opinion….

    Will be interesting to see just how this will all play out…I’m sure there will still be some varying solutions as the the 12Z Euro shows…..the question will be is will Chubby Checker stop by Tuesday and give us that “twist”

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  98. Mr. Pete February 4, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

    Solid two inches here in Prairie Village

  99. Adam February 4, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

    I just saw where Gary said a Winter Storm Watch will probably be issued for Tuesday. He’s allowing his emotions to get involved again.

    There is literally zero model data(at the moment)that would support that being needed.

    • Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 1:32 pm - Reply

      you was wrong yesterday yourself about to and you don’t really know what’s going to happen lol

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

      oh dude..you are wrong…yes it does

      • Richard February 4, 2018 at 3:34 pm - Reply

        Heat
        Which model data supports it.
        Which models do you look at (on your own) w/o looking at the links here.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

        Only Gary knows what’s going to happen, not you..I learned that from Terry….

      • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 5:20 pm - Reply

        you don’t go by just the models alone..as they suck for snow predictions…read weatherman’s comment below.

        • Richard February 4, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

          I was only asking to hear what you based that comment on when you said the data supports it.

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

      Leave it to gary on whats going to happen.

    • Weatherman February 4, 2018 at 1:58 pm - Reply

      While I agree that a Winter Storm Warning will probably not be issued, a winter storm watch likely will as snowfall totals along I-70 look between 5-7 inches of snow. Warning criteria is 6+ inches.

      • Three7s February 4, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

        Depends on the model you’re looking at. GFS is the outlier atm.

  100. Fred Nolan February 4, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    I say the forecast for today was definitely a “swing and miss”…
    However, the storm gets a double at least, maybe even eeks out a triple. Good solid 2 inches here in North Olathe.

  101. KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    Our 2″ of snow yielded 0.15″ of water.
    The top few inches of soil was warm, damp and friable yesterday when I dug some trenches with a hoe, and unlike the current 12°, it was short-sleeved T-shirt weather, but it should warm up a bit this afternoon now that the sky is blue and sun is shining brightly.

    • Phillip February 4, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

      Only supposed to get to 20° today.

      • KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 5:26 pm - Reply

        Well, it didn’t warm up one bit. It stayed at 12° until 4:30 and then started dropping.
        It is now 10°.
        Earlier today the NWS predicted our low would be 11° tonight, but now they are saying 5°, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes lower than that.

        • KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

          It hit 5° at 6:15, and in turn, the NWS revised their guess to 0°.

  102. Patrick Savage February 4, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    Easily 1.5” Gladstone area. For a minute had near white out conditions. This little system overperformed and expect Tuesday’s system to do the same.

  103. David February 4, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    The EURO 12z doesn’t look impressive for Tuesday at all.

  104. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    So keep in mind again 2-3″ of the 7″ the Canadian shows falls Monday around Noon.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018020412/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_5.png

  105. Kurt February 4, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

    And the further south the Monday system should dictate how far south the Tuesday system goes. There will probably a 2 to 3 county wide area that gets low end from both.

    Just a guess where both set ups occur.

  106. Troy Newman February 4, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    It seems like when we have NW flow that models really struggle with these events. I know they flip around a lot all the time but usually within a day or two they get close except in these situations. Even in summer these are the times that you go to bed to a 20% of rain and wake up to a MCS rolling through. It does give me some hope for summer as we really have had a number of these systems just no big SW cyclones hitting us in the right spot.

    • Weatherman February 4, 2018 at 3:02 pm - Reply

      Yeah but even with MCS season, you can see small mesoscale symptoms that would relay whether or not an MCS was expected to form (outflow boundaries combined with wind shift amongst a dewy atmosphere).

      I mean honestly, the development of the snow bands, the way they intensified right before entering Kc and weaking after it moved through is very similar to a summer like MCS even without the instability or outflow boundary to work off of

  107. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 2:22 pm - Reply
  108. Fred Nolan February 4, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    Looks like the NWS is forecasting the Tuesday storm on a more southerly track. Leaving the metro within a 1-3 inch zone.

  109. Jeremy mcwhirt February 4, 2018 at 3:12 pm - Reply

    Nam looks a little more encouragin

  110. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

    Yeah, NAM finally getting on the bandwagon. I’m not gonna get too hopeful until I see tomorrow’s 12z. Just with this year’s LRC it’s hard to get hope up when models have burned us time and time again.

  111. Jeremy mcwhirt February 4, 2018 at 3:15 pm - Reply

    Agreed foodl3

  112. Morgan February 4, 2018 at 3:16 pm - Reply

    The NAM is definitely improved from its last run.

  113. JoeK February 4, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

    I think a lot of folks are going to be surprised by this next system as they were by the system today. Look deeper into the models, Pay attention to the UVV. Today proved their is a moist air mass to work with. I stand by my thoughts that somebody in our viewing area will see 3-6″ and possibly, a good portion of the viewing area and guess what, not only does this fit the LRC, the models are struggling with this just as they did the Christmas Eve system. I think we experienced a twist today and will again with this next system. Yes, I have been wrong before, it is the weather, but I still have confidence.

  114. Morgan February 4, 2018 at 3:47 pm - Reply

    The GFS is weaker and north with heavier snow.

  115. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    18z GFS shows dusting-2″ for KC metro, up to 4″ near StJoe. Looks locked in with NAM with just lower rates same track.

  116. Adam February 4, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Yep, GFS trended downward. Again, this is not at all a Winter Storm Watch situation. Not even close.

    • David February 4, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      agreed

    • Joe February 4, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

      Going from 5-6″ to < 3….might sound like a poof watch is in order

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

        Poof alert now in effect- Attention: Terry, Heat, Mike (Yahtzee)??

        • Mike February 4, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

          The 18z is an off run. Be patient.

          • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 5:13 pm - Reply

            Remember, the runs tend to get worse later in the day….

      • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 5:15 pm - Reply

        lol…there you guys go again..you NEVER learn. Going by each model that comes out has proven silly…why are you still doing it? Living run to run for amounts is a fools game…..watching trends over three or four runs close to the event….okay

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 5:18 pm - Reply

      lol..yeah, those accurate model snow totals tell it like it really is. LoL..really? Not saying we will or we wont…but come on. Lets see why they show tomorrow as we get closer to the event.

      • Terry February 4, 2018 at 5:38 pm - Reply

        That’s right Heat we do need to see how they look like tomorrow and even Tuesday morning to see what the models look like We know Now this morning’s disturbance through us a screwball and we was not Expecting it to happen this morning.

  117. Jack February 4, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply
  118. Three7s February 4, 2018 at 4:52 pm - Reply

    Not sure I’m buying the 18z GFS. Western Kansas gets the bulk of the snow? That’s the first time I’ve seen that kind of solution yet. Most of the models have had trouble phasing the southern wave after the northern wave goes by, but this one phases really quick and just dies. Who knows at this point.

    • f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 5:05 pm - Reply

      NAM was trendin that way last 48 hrs. Canadian the same if you take the qpf / 4, Icon in line w/ west solution W/ weakening wave too. Today’s storm matured west and lost it’s punch as it pushed through here too.

  119. Phillip February 4, 2018 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    Hmm that makes no sense since earlier it was going to go almost too far south for us to get much? Now it’s shifted THAT far north?… I think these models are out of whack with these “storms” all winter. Hopefully tonight/tomorrow morning hey will have a better handle on things. What a nightmare for Kc Mets 😳

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 5:12 pm - Reply

      Sounds like an across the board poof alert. Beware, getting ready to be issued!!!!

      • Richard February 4, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

        Bluetooth that you ??

  120. Anonymous February 4, 2018 at 4:57 pm - Reply

    Just saying, if the models can flip from 5-6 inches to 1-3 inches within a couple hours the next model runs could switch right back just as easily, definitely worthy of watching though, this is the first time a “major” storm has trended from as low as 3 days out, so we will see.

  121. Tdogg February 4, 2018 at 5:18 pm - Reply

    Tuesday is the day!!! Biggest snow ever!!!!

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 5:21 pm - Reply

      lol…do you live to come on here just to be a di*k? What a sad life dude…really.

      • Bobbie February 4, 2018 at 5:28 pm - Reply

        We could say the same about you too Robert

        • Terry February 4, 2018 at 5:34 pm - Reply

          Be nice bobbie

        • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

          Ahh..Tdogg is a professional loser troll…see how he changed his name from Tdogg to Bobbie there? LoL…go back to you unhappy life quit hassling weather bloggers…its pathetic.

          • Bobbie February 4, 2018 at 8:10 pm - Reply

            I’m not Tdogg, so nice try. You can be the crybaby of the blog all you want but you bring the “heat” on yourself

          • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 8:29 pm - Reply

            Heat, you bring it on your self. You should apologize…..

          • Terry February 4, 2018 at 9:14 pm - Reply

            Right Heat

          • Terry February 4, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

            Your right Heat .

  122. MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 5:49 pm - Reply

    If the snow now trends further to the north I would appreciate it bigly.

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

      The disturbance is still way out in the Pacific Ocean for Tuesday snow event.

  123. Phillip February 4, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

    Matt you need it to be where it was earlier… north wouldn’t be good for you for snow

    • MattinLeavenworth February 4, 2018 at 6:33 pm - Reply

      So I guess we won’t get a handle till tomorrow afternoon on a realistic idea of what we could get?

  124. Terry February 4, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

    Plus I just heard on or another local station from Bret Anthony. There For the models
    do not have a good handle on Disturbance yet until it comes on shore for Tuesday snow event still out in the Pacific Ocean and there fore the model do not and don’t have a good handle on it until it gets on land. The models will be all place for snow amounts right now.

    • Tdogg February 4, 2018 at 6:19 pm - Reply

      Huh?

      • Terry February 4, 2018 at 6:49 pm - Reply

        you can’t read lol

        • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

          Terry, that is mean and uncalled for. Please say sorry…..

          • Phillip February 4, 2018 at 8:35 pm - Reply

            Lmao can it… terry takes enough 💩 on this blog

      • Freezemiser February 4, 2018 at 6:50 pm - Reply

        Some things never change. Plus 1 on “huh?”

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 8:26 pm - Reply

      Oh Terry….

  125. Terry February 4, 2018 at 6:54 pm - Reply

    Brett Anthony on another local station here. Said the wave energy is still way in the Pacific Ocean and For the models are still all over the place or snow amounts for Tuesday/Wednesday event and they do not Have a good handle on it yet on it Until it gets on shore out west.

  126. Richard February 4, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

    I am impressed
    247 comments and the blog is not slow. And we can still comment without needing to log in

  127. Heavysnow February 4, 2018 at 7:15 pm - Reply

    NWS St Louis came out with widespread 2-3 inches across Mid Missouri with locally higher amounts possible.

  128. Fred Nolan February 4, 2018 at 7:36 pm - Reply

    Just curious. We have had several small snows this season. Does anyone besides me bother to clear off the driveway after any measurable snow. I for one cannot stand to have snow lingering on the driveway.
    I would say only 25% of the homeowners in my neighborhood have used a shovel, broom etc this year.

  129. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

    Wasnt’ it supposed to only get down to 10F tonight? HRRR showing it getting to -5 in Olathe.

  130. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 8:01 pm - Reply

    My threshold to clear the driveway is 3″. Snow was 3″ in spots today!

  131. marlina10 February 4, 2018 at 8:13 pm - Reply

    Fred – If we can easily drive through it, that shovel stays put!

  132. Bsmike February 4, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    Mines clear if there a dusting

  133. marlina10 February 4, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

    F00dl3 – That temperature might be the wind chill

  134. Jess February 4, 2018 at 8:30 pm - Reply

    There should be a way to vote someone off of the blog. Survivor: Weather 2020 Edition.

  135. Morgan February 4, 2018 at 8:32 pm - Reply

    The NAM has absolutely nothing.

  136. Adam February 4, 2018 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    The 0z Nam has not even a drop on Tuesday. Zilch. Nada. Nothing.

    8 hours ago Gary was talking Winter Storm Watch.

    Incredible.

    • Weatherman February 4, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

      The 0znam last night for today had Zero, Niltch, Nada

      • Terry February 4, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

        Thats right and there in there on dream land again on here lol some bloggers.

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

      Incredible it’s wrong and has been the wave Energy is still out in the Pacific Ocean so there for its Still all over the place model and it did not Catch on to this morning’s wave until the very last minute.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

      The models go to crap late in the day, almost always….

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:11 pm - Reply

      Poof!, Boom!! Yahtzee!!!

  137. David February 4, 2018 at 8:42 pm - Reply

    Agreed. Not looking like much. Even if it did go 2-4 inches, which looks less and less likely, that merits winter weather advisory, not winter storm watch

  138. f00dl3 February 4, 2018 at 8:45 pm - Reply

    New NAM has nothing

    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

      only You guys only believe into a model when it’s been wrong and it did not Catch on the wave until the very last minute.

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

        Huh??

  139. Tdogg February 4, 2018 at 8:58 pm - Reply

    The old Watch the Winter Storm go POOF?

    • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:07 pm - Reply

      Poof!, Boom!! Yahtzee!!!

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

      Gary really should ban you ….you don’t contribute a thing to this blog…other than being a twit.

  140. Terry February 4, 2018 at 8:59 pm - Reply
    • Terry February 4, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

      Don’t know why that is so last night’s Nam oz run. I did somethings wrong On posting that my mistake

      • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:10 pm - Reply

        Terry, you didn’t do anything wrong. The problem is that there is nothing on it, lol. The pattern shifted.

        • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

          Sorry for being out of line this morning Aryl, this boring weather up here for that last 16 months gets sooo frustrating

          These 1 to 1.5 inch snows are about as bad as watching all those storms miss south and north all last summer

      • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

        Not sure why that run isn’t believable? Each system this winter has been unreliable in terms of outcome. Looks like the second wave is going further south tues into tues night that has as much chance at verifying as any other run

        You’re all lucky you got the 2-3 inches in spots this morning.

        • Aryl Kazeg February 4, 2018 at 9:17 pm - Reply

          Kurt, it looks like the pattern shifted some.

          • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

            I’ll be ecstatic when the pattern shifts to wet and stormy and hope it’s before the chiefs win a super bowl or I’m in for a longggggg dry dry spell

            • Bluetooth February 4, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

              Me too, Kurt.

              • Kurt February 4, 2018 at 9:41 pm

                And I cornered the market in garden hoses so everyone will have to come to me to buy watering accessories if we have a dry spring and summer! Unless they have in ground sprinklers. (Ha ha ha)

            • Bluetooth February 4, 2018 at 10:22 pm - Reply

              Kurt, maybe you can give a discount 🙂

  141. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 9:19 pm - Reply

    wow..286 comments. Philly wins…glad to see the Pats lose for a change.

  142. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    we got at least a couple inches in Lawrence..hard to measure with the drifiting, but the roads got snow packed. Heavy snow too…it was awesome. A couple more chances…bring it on Tuesday.

  143. Fred Nolan February 4, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

    Woohoo. Puck the Fatriots.

  144. HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 9:25 pm - Reply

    Those who are living model run to model run…remember Gary said the models cant predict this until it gets on shore…it cant figure out where the pieces are going to fall until then. So looking at the models right now are pointless. Wait until tomorrow

    • JoeK February 4, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

      Heat,

      The core of the point you are attempting to make is valid in the sense of how models are used on this blog however, the models are not useless, you simply have to know how to appropriately interpret the data and NOT take each model run literally of which, is the problem with many folks on this blog, they surface analyze the models rather than understanding their advantages and limitations.

  145. KS Jones February 4, 2018 at 9:47 pm - Reply

    It is currently -4° here and in Lawrence as well.

  146. Bsmike February 4, 2018 at 9:57 pm - Reply

    Watch philly riot and burn down city. Classy fans !!!

    • Weatherman February 5, 2018 at 2:46 am - Reply

      We’d be doing the same thing if the chiefs won a super bowl.

  147. Kate February 4, 2018 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    B’s mike…what exactly are you implying? Smh!!!!

  148. Kate February 4, 2018 at 10:09 pm - Reply

    Bsmike…curious, what exactly you are implying…SMH!!!!

  149. Adam February 4, 2018 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    0z GFS coming in with 2-4 inches in the metro. There is now not a single model showing more than 4 inches.

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 10:19 pm - Reply

      that would be great 2-4 inches

    • f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 4:59 am - Reply

      Hello NAM? Have you not seen the overnight runs? Or the Euro?

  150. Heavysnow February 4, 2018 at 11:18 pm - Reply

    Why do some people have to be so negative towards people?

    • Phillip February 4, 2018 at 11:21 pm - Reply

      This has been happening ever since I joined the blog YEARS ago heavysnow… it’s the battle of snow lovers vs snow haters. I think a select few on here just like to rustle the feathers of the people who enjoy snow

      • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 11:42 pm - Reply

        lol..yeah, its called trolling

  151. Phillip February 4, 2018 at 11:19 pm - Reply

    Adam that would still break the streak of years we’ve gone without a 3-4” snow storm! Just my opinion, but I feel like this one is going to fall apart on top of us 😕 don’t get your hopes up fellow bloggers!

    • Adam February 4, 2018 at 11:21 pm - Reply

      Oh I’m not getting my hopes up. The GFS is on the high end. It’s totslky possible that we get less than 3 inches from this.

      Seeing how it’s gone the last 4 years, the odds are definitely with it being less and not more.

    • HEAT MISER February 4, 2018 at 11:44 pm - Reply

      I don’t, Gary has is now giving it a 90 percent chance of accumulating snow over us and, and most of the other stations as well. His latest shows 31/2 to 4/12 inches over the area…the higher amounts just west like in Lawrence/Topeka

  152. Jack February 4, 2018 at 11:33 pm - Reply

    Looking the past 5-6 runs of the GFs, it has been very consistent. When the trend was south, it consistently trended south, then when the trend was north, it slowly trended north and it has been fairly consistent for the 2-3 runs. It would give the KC metro snow on Tuesday with 2-4 inches. With nam not showing anything for us, I still have my hopes down low. I am not buying it due to its inconsistancy with each model run. Here is my specific thinking. For now.

    1- 10%
    2- 30%
    3- 45%
    4- 15%

  153. Adam February 5, 2018 at 12:28 am - Reply

    The Euro has 1 inch. Again, the GFS is at the upper end.

    Dusting to 2 inches, which has been the going forecast for any event the last 4 years, should be the forecast once again.

  154. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 4:57 am - Reply

    Tired of this same old pattern. I’m ready for a new LRC!

  155. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 5:28 am - Reply

    I know last night the thought was that the NAM was way out in left field showing no snow but the 06z NAM shows no snow as well. There is a trend there. You can’t ignore a trend. Especially in the short range models.

    I bet we get nothing. Squat. Nadda.

  156. Phillip February 5, 2018 at 5:40 am - Reply

    And we all know your stance when it comes to snow poodle… that’s why I think a lot of bloggers here ignore you and don’t even try initiating convo with your no snow posts day in and day out. I won’t knock ya for having an opinion though.

  157. f00dl3 February 5, 2018 at 6:00 am - Reply

    I’m not trying to be negative on snow. I do love it. God knows I bike in it all the time even when it gets to -5F.

    I just don’t see how we’re gonna get a 3 incher this year, with this LRC. I mean, that’s the thing – the LRC is set in stone. We can have seasonal differences, but when we have had 3 years we have not seen seasonal differences kick in until after snow season is over I think it’s safe to say that it’s going to be a challenge. Seeing model runs that dump 5 to 8″ of snow on us we should know, just off of our LRC this year, how unrealistic of an expectation that is. The cold air is and has always been too strong. It got down to -1F at least when I was out on my bike earlier this morning. 2 days ago we only thought it was going to get down to +10F this morning.

    The major issue with the Arctic air coming in so strong as it has all this winter – I lost track of how many Arctic blasts we’ve had now – is that when the Arctic air comes in that strong it can’t hold as much moisture. It can make for higher snowfall ratios, but typically our largest snows happen between 20 and 30 degrees. We have had several major storms when it was 8 to 15 degrees, but you have to have a moisture fetch for that to pan out. The northwest flow nature of this winter’s Arctic airmasses means that the flow is the exact opposite of the direction that we need to get surface moisture pooling to support areas of frontogenic forcing, trowals, or warm noses that can lead to snowfall events more than 1 to 2 hours long. We are stuck with, as a blogger said yesterday, MCS style or “clipper” events in the northwest flow. No digging in the 4 corners that you would need for a day long snowfall event.

    • Aryl Kazeg February 5, 2018 at 6:05 am - Reply

      Perfectly understandable…

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