The Trend is Up On Super Bowl Sunday

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Good Super Bowl Sunday bloggers,

Well, maybe just maybe we have some exciting weather to discuss. The first sign comes today;  Snow is heading towards KC at 7:30 this morning and it appears it will hold together.  The second sign; there is a trend in the models that is good, and it fits the LRC, as if you look back into early November and around Christmas Eve, there is a disturbance that should cross the Kansas/Missouri border around Tuesday night, and it is there on the latest models.  If we get the first one today, even just a dusting or snow showers with snow blowing around in the road, this would not be a swing and a miss, as Gary has been using as an analogy.  It may be a bunt single. Then, the second system, the bigger storm system appears we will be swinging for the fences, or maybe our football players will be opening up in the end zone for a TD catch.  The trend is rather good on this second storm. And, there is even a third one showing up for next weekend. But, we can’t swing and miss at the first two, or we will be in jeopardy of striking out again.

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: There is clearly a disturbance in central Nebraska, the little twist between Omaha and North Platte, that is heading southeast at about 50 mph. The area of snow is mostly light, but since the disturbance is alive, the snow should hold together and we expect it to cross our region between 9 AM and 2 PM.

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The current track of the snow puts it into KC around 930 AM. It will exit 1-2 PM and we expect mostly the snow to blow around on the roads with a few locations seeing up to 1/4″ and slick spots.

2

Here is the KC weather forecast timeline:

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Now, let’s talk about the second chance of snow, Tuesday. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in 4 years and the trend is up on the overnight data.

MONDAY MORNING: It will be dry and cold with lows 10°-15° and there is a system for tomorrow that will track mostly across Nebraska and Iowa.

4

MONDAY AFTERNOON: The storm to the north may clip far northern Missouri with a dusting to 2″ of snow, while here in KC it is mostly cloudy with highs 35°-40°. The system to the north will bring a new cold blast Monday night, which sets the stage for the Tuesday event.

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TUESDAY MORNING: We will be monitoring, hopefully, an increasing area of snow in Kansas that should arrive here by noon.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: Look at this! Is it possible? Widespread snow with some heavy pockets. Well, the trend is back up and that is good, but it is far from set in stone. The storm could be weaker, the storm may still get it’s act together farther south and east. So, let’s just keep watching the data.

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SNOWFALL POTENTIAL: Yes, the latest data has 5.6″ of snow in KC which would, by far, make it the biggest snowstorm since February 4, 2014. This is NOT our official forecast at this time, but the potential is there. Stay Tuned!

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Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!  Please Don’t Drink and Drive.  Get that designated driver.  Gary will be working tonight as there will be a huge audience for the Super Bowl and “This Is Us”.  He will update the blog later.

Jeff Penner

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Aryl Kazegf00dl3PhillipWeathermanAdam Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

I’m not trying to be negative on snow. I do love it. God knows I bike in it all the time even when it gets to -5F. I just don’t see how we’re gonna get a 3 incher this year, with this LRC. I mean, that’s the thing – the LRC is set in stone. We can have seasonal differences, but when we have had 3 years we have not seen seasonal differences kick in until after snow season is over I think it’s safe to say that it’s going to be a challenge. Seeing model runs that dump 5… Read more »

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Perfectly understandable…

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

And we all know your stance when it comes to snow poodle… that’s why I think a lot of bloggers here ignore you and don’t even try initiating convo with your no snow posts day in and day out. I won’t knock ya for having an opinion though.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I know last night the thought was that the NAM was way out in left field showing no snow but the 06z NAM shows no snow as well. There is a trend there. You can’t ignore a trend. Especially in the short range models.

I bet we get nothing. Squat. Nadda.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Tired of this same old pattern. I’m ready for a new LRC!

Adam
Guest
Adam

The Euro has 1 inch. Again, the GFS is at the upper end.

Dusting to 2 inches, which has been the going forecast for any event the last 4 years, should be the forecast once again.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Looking the past 5-6 runs of the GFs, it has been very consistent. When the trend was south, it consistently trended south, then when the trend was north, it slowly trended north and it has been fairly consistent for the 2-3 runs. It would give the KC metro snow on Tuesday with 2-4 inches. With nam not showing anything for us, I still have my hopes down low. I am not buying it due to its inconsistancy with each model run. Here is my specific thinking. For now.

1- 10%
2- 30%
3- 45%
4- 15%

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Adam that would still break the streak of years we’ve gone without a 3-4” snow storm! Just my opinion, but I feel like this one is going to fall apart on top of us 😕 don’t get your hopes up fellow bloggers!

Adam
Guest
Adam

Oh I’m not getting my hopes up. The GFS is on the high end. It’s totslky possible that we get less than 3 inches from this.

Seeing how it’s gone the last 4 years, the odds are definitely with it being less and not more.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

I don’t, Gary has is now giving it a 90 percent chance of accumulating snow over us and, and most of the other stations as well. His latest shows 31/2 to 4/12 inches over the area…the higher amounts just west like in Lawrence/Topeka

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

Why do some people have to be so negative towards people?

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

This has been happening ever since I joined the blog YEARS ago heavysnow… it’s the battle of snow lovers vs snow haters. I think a select few on here just like to rustle the feathers of the people who enjoy snow

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol..yeah, its called trolling

Adam
Guest
Adam

0z GFS coming in with 2-4 inches in the metro. There is now not a single model showing more than 4 inches.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

that would be great 2-4 inches

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hello NAM? Have you not seen the overnight runs? Or the Euro?

Kate
Guest
Kate

Bsmike…curious, what exactly you are implying…SMH!!!!

Kate
Guest
Kate

B’s mike…what exactly are you implying? Smh!!!!

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Watch philly riot and burn down city. Classy fans !!!

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

We’d be doing the same thing if the chiefs won a super bowl.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It is currently -4° here and in Lawrence as well.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Those who are living model run to model run…remember Gary said the models cant predict this until it gets on shore…it cant figure out where the pieces are going to fall until then. So looking at the models right now are pointless. Wait until tomorrow

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Heat,

The core of the point you are attempting to make is valid in the sense of how models are used on this blog however, the models are not useless, you simply have to know how to appropriately interpret the data and NOT take each model run literally of which, is the problem with many folks on this blog, they surface analyze the models rather than understanding their advantages and limitations.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Woohoo. Puck the Fatriots.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

we got at least a couple inches in Lawrence..hard to measure with the drifiting, but the roads got snow packed. Heavy snow too…it was awesome. A couple more chances…bring it on Tuesday.

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

wow..286 comments. Philly wins…glad to see the Pats lose for a change.

Terry
Guest
Terry
Terry
Guest
Terry

Don’t know why that is so last night’s Nam oz run. I did somethings wrong On posting that my mistake

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Terry, you didn’t do anything wrong. The problem is that there is nothing on it, lol. The pattern shifted.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Sorry for being out of line this morning Aryl, this boring weather up here for that last 16 months gets sooo frustrating

These 1 to 1.5 inch snows are about as bad as watching all those storms miss south and north all last summer

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Not sure why that run isn’t believable? Each system this winter has been unreliable in terms of outcome. Looks like the second wave is going further south tues into tues night that has as much chance at verifying as any other run

You’re all lucky you got the 2-3 inches in spots this morning.

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Kurt, it looks like the pattern shifted some.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’ll be ecstatic when the pattern shifts to wet and stormy and hope it’s before the chiefs win a super bowl or I’m in for a longggggg dry dry spell

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Me too, Kurt.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

And I cornered the market in garden hoses so everyone will have to come to me to buy watering accessories if we have a dry spring and summer! Unless they have in ground sprinklers. (Ha ha ha)

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Kurt, maybe you can give a discount 🙂

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

The old Watch the Winter Storm go POOF?

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Poof!, Boom!! Yahtzee!!!

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Gary really should ban you ….you don’t contribute a thing to this blog…other than being a twit.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

New NAM has nothing

Terry
Guest
Terry

only You guys only believe into a model when it’s been wrong and it did not Catch on the wave until the very last minute.

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Huh??

David
Guest
David

Agreed. Not looking like much. Even if it did go 2-4 inches, which looks less and less likely, that merits winter weather advisory, not winter storm watch

Adam
Guest
Adam

The 0z Nam has not even a drop on Tuesday. Zilch. Nada. Nothing.

8 hours ago Gary was talking Winter Storm Watch.

Incredible.

Weatherman
Guest
Weatherman

The 0znam last night for today had Zero, Niltch, Nada

Terry
Guest
Terry

Thats right and there in there on dream land again on here lol some bloggers.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Incredible it’s wrong and has been the wave Energy is still out in the Pacific Ocean so there for its Still all over the place model and it did not Catch on to this morning’s wave until the very last minute.

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

The models go to crap late in the day, almost always….

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Poof!, Boom!! Yahtzee!!!

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The NAM has absolutely nothing.

Jess
Guest
Jess

There should be a way to vote someone off of the blog. Survivor: Weather 2020 Edition.

marlina10
Guest
marlina10

F00dl3 – That temperature might be the wind chill

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Mines clear if there a dusting

marlina10
Guest
marlina10

Fred – If we can easily drive through it, that shovel stays put!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

My threshold to clear the driveway is 3″. Snow was 3″ in spots today!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Wasnt’ it supposed to only get down to 10F tonight? HRRR showing it getting to -5 in Olathe.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Just curious. We have had several small snows this season. Does anyone besides me bother to clear off the driveway after any measurable snow. I for one cannot stand to have snow lingering on the driveway.
I would say only 25% of the homeowners in my neighborhood have used a shovel, broom etc this year.

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

NWS St Louis came out with widespread 2-3 inches across Mid Missouri with locally higher amounts possible.

Richard
Guest
Richard

I am impressed
247 comments and the blog is not slow. And we can still comment without needing to log in

Terry
Guest
Terry

Brett Anthony on another local station here. Said the wave energy is still way in the Pacific Ocean and For the models are still all over the place or snow amounts for Tuesday/Wednesday event and they do not Have a good handle on it yet on it Until it gets on shore out west.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Plus I just heard on or another local station from Bret Anthony. There For the models
do not have a good handle on Disturbance yet until it comes on shore for Tuesday snow event still out in the Pacific Ocean and there fore the model do not and don’t have a good handle on it until it gets on land. The models will be all place for snow amounts right now.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Huh?

Terry
Guest
Terry

you can’t read lol

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Terry, that is mean and uncalled for. Please say sorry…..

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Lmao can it… terry takes enough 💩 on this blog

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Some things never change. Plus 1 on “huh?”

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Oh Terry….

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Matt you need it to be where it was earlier… north wouldn’t be good for you for snow

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

So I guess we won’t get a handle till tomorrow afternoon on a realistic idea of what we could get?

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

If the snow now trends further to the north I would appreciate it bigly.

Terry
Guest
Terry

The disturbance is still way out in the Pacific Ocean for Tuesday snow event.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Tuesday is the day!!! Biggest snow ever!!!!

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol…do you live to come on here just to be a di*k? What a sad life dude…really.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

We could say the same about you too Robert

Terry
Guest
Terry

Be nice bobbie

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

Ahh..Tdogg is a professional loser troll…see how he changed his name from Tdogg to Bobbie there? LoL…go back to you unhappy life quit hassling weather bloggers…its pathetic.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

I’m not Tdogg, so nice try. You can be the crybaby of the blog all you want but you bring the “heat” on yourself

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Heat, you bring it on your self. You should apologize…..

Terry
Guest
Terry

Right Heat

Terry
Guest
Terry

Your right Heat .

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Just saying, if the models can flip from 5-6 inches to 1-3 inches within a couple hours the next model runs could switch right back just as easily, definitely worthy of watching though, this is the first time a “major” storm has trended from as low as 3 days out, so we will see.

Phillip
Guest
Phillip

Hmm that makes no sense since earlier it was going to go almost too far south for us to get much? Now it’s shifted THAT far north?… I think these models are out of whack with these “storms” all winter. Hopefully tonight/tomorrow morning hey will have a better handle on things. What a nightmare for Kc Mets 😳

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Sounds like an across the board poof alert. Beware, getting ready to be issued!!!!

Richard
Guest
Richard

Bluetooth that you ??

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Not sure I’m buying the 18z GFS. Western Kansas gets the bulk of the snow? That’s the first time I’ve seen that kind of solution yet. Most of the models have had trouble phasing the southern wave after the northern wave goes by, but this one phases really quick and just dies. Who knows at this point.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NAM was trendin that way last 48 hrs. Canadian the same if you take the qpf / 4, Icon in line w/ west solution W/ weakening wave too. Today’s storm matured west and lost it’s punch as it pushed through here too.

Jack
Guest
Jack
Adam
Guest
Adam

Yep, GFS trended downward. Again, this is not at all a Winter Storm Watch situation. Not even close.

David
Guest
David

agreed

Joe
Guest
Joe

Going from 5-6″ to < 3….might sound like a poof watch is in order

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Poof alert now in effect- Attention: Terry, Heat, Mike (Yahtzee)??

Mike
Guest
Mike

The 18z is an off run. Be patient.

Aryl Kazeg
Guest
Aryl Kazeg

Remember, the runs tend to get worse later in the day….

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol…there you guys go again..you NEVER learn. Going by each model that comes out has proven silly…why are you still doing it? Living run to run for amounts is a fools game…..watching trends over three or four runs close to the event….okay

HEAT MISER
Guest
HEAT MISER

lol..yeah, those accurate model snow totals tell it like it really is. LoL..really? Not saying we will or we wont…but come on. Lets see why they show tomorrow as we get closer to the event.

Terry
Guest
Terry

That’s right Heat we do need to see how they look like tomorrow and even Tuesday morning to see what the models look like We know Now this morning’s disturbance through us a screwball and we was not Expecting it to happen this morning.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

18z GFS shows dusting-2″ for KC metro, up to 4″ near StJoe. Looks locked in with NAM with just lower rates same track.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The GFS is weaker and north with heavier snow.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

I think a lot of folks are going to be surprised by this next system as they were by the system today. Look deeper into the models, Pay attention to the UVV. Today proved their is a moist air mass to work with. I stand by my thoughts that somebody in our viewing area will see 3-6″ and possibly, a good portion of the viewing area and guess what, not only does this fit the LRC, the models are struggling with this just as they did the Christmas Eve system. I think we experienced a twist today and will again… Read more »

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The NAM is definitely improved from its last run.

Jeremy mcwhirt
Guest
Jeremy mcwhirt

Agreed foodl3

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah, NAM finally getting on the bandwagon. I’m not gonna get too hopeful until I see tomorrow’s 12z. Just with this year’s LRC it’s hard to get hope up when models have burned us time and time again.

Jeremy mcwhirt
Guest
Jeremy mcwhirt

Nam looks a little more encouragin

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Looks like the NWS is forecasting the Tuesday storm on a more southerly track. Leaving the metro within a 1-3 inch zone.