Could The Snowflake Contest Finally End By Monday?

/Could The Snowflake Contest Finally End By Monday?

Could The Snowflake Contest Finally End By Monday?

Good morning bloggers,

The roads are white around Kansas City. Why? Well, up north they may be snow covered, but down south they are salt covered again. When will it precipitate again? There is a chance of snow Sunday, but Mother Nature is not being nice at all.  And, there is a chance of snow Monday with another rather major Arctic blast.  Yesterday a whopping total of 0.4″ fell in Kansas City. During the past four winters (14.1″, 5.9″, 4.9″, and 2.6″) there has been a total of 27.5″ and there have been around 30 snowfalls. Think about that average, less than one inch per snowfall.  Here are some numbers:

1

It is down into the single digits today. The trend on the models overnight for Sunday and Monday’s snow chances was interesting. The trend shifted the Alberta Clipper type systems west a bit, but these are small scale systems with very little moisture to work with.

Sunday:

On Sunday, there is a fast moving wave aloft, that you can see on tonights upper level forecast chart:

3

That wave, that I am pointing at with that arrow, comes through and over the ridge near the west coast. And, then it drops southeast to just west of Kansas City Sunday morning. If it is strong enough and takes that track across eastern Kansas, then the snowflake contest could end Sunday morning with a 1-2 inch band possible:

1

This is a rather small and fast moving system. The trend overnight shifted the snow west to right over Kansas City. But, we have been through this too many times.  It is now less than 48 hours away, and yet it is not even close to being a certainty.

Monday:

2

On Monday, another strong Arctic Blast will be spreading and expanding out over the upper Midwest and plains states. A band of snow has been pretty heavy on some models. It will be moving fast, but it could also produce an inch or so. This provides two chances to end the snowflake contest.

Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 7.06.19 AM

This map above shows the GFS snowfall forecast for these next two events combined.  The Canadian model doubles these totals. And, the Euro does too:

Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 7.16.54 AM

As you can see, the European Model shows a nice Two to Four inches of snow, which would obviously end the snowflake contest. Again, this is all by Monday morning.  This European model is almost an exact copy of what the Canadian model did. So, we continue on this rather rough winter ride in KC. Are we being teased again?  I like the trend.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience, the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com to join in the conversation. I will check in later. It’s FRIDAY!

Gary

2018-01-14T05:37:06+00:00 January 12th, 2018|General|86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. Three7s January 12, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    I don’t know what 4 inches of snow on the ground would look like at this point. Doubt it happens, but we’ll see.

  2. Snow Miser January 12, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    It’s a really sad state of affairs when we’re getting excited at 1 or 2 inches of snow.

  3. Adam January 12, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    Dusting – 2 inches. It’s the going forecast for any snowfall event.

  4. Michael Casteel January 12, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

    Here’s my last two day totals. I measured roughly 1 1/2″ of snow, sleet, slush mix for a liquid equivalent of .19″ of moisture. Northwest of Maryville got more snow than us ranging from 2-4″ inches reported this morning. Have a safe and happy Martin Luther King weekend Bloggers!
    Michael

  5. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 12, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    I’m putting in for jobs around Pensacola, FL …… Ready for a change. At least they get storms quit often

    • NoBeachHere January 12, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

      Love Pensacola, sandy white beaches, warm weather, nice breeze. Palm trees, seafood at the Boardwalk, sounds of gulls and waves breaking. The smells of the coast, sun tans, naps on the beach.

  6. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 12, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    EXACTLY NoBeachHere

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 12, 2018 at 10:34 am - Reply

      But, same mundane weather over and over again ( hot and humid, maybe a pop up storm). Hurricanes to boot. I do love cloud watching in FL, usually some cool Cumulus – cumulus congestus, cumulonimbus clouds around to watch develop. Also, KILLER FISHING. Wait a minute, you got a job for me down there too? lol

  7. Urbanity January 12, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    If we can’t get two inches of snow from a negative tilted somewhat robust system moving NE out of Oklahoma AND we were in the deformation zone, how could a little clipper system give us more than flurries. I’ll say this area is too dry for the clipper systems to have an impact.

    Gary, let’s hope the models continue to show a breakdown of the ridge out west in the long range forecast, the LRC would tell us this would be a permanent feature out west, but in your opinion would it be possible for the ridge to breakdown and become a non-factor for the rest of the year? Could we have a snowy/wet February?

    • Urbanity January 12, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

      …although it appears the most recent model runs are not breaking down the ridge, forget I asked.

      • Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

        I don’t see it breaking down, but maybe it could retrograde west? I think the easiest way to get the ridge to move further west would be for the SE ridge to become more of a factor. That would cause storms to get their act together just about right on top of us, rather than east of us, then after digging, they shoot to the north towards the Great Lakes due to the SE ridge. That would put us in a prime spot for snow on the back-side of the Lows that comes through.

        I think that’s similar to what happened in October.

        • Three7s January 12, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

          Sorry, that was me, usually it has my name already in.

      • Terry January 12, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

        The Ridge out West has broken down some.

    • Bluetooth January 12, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      AO/NAO-remember when it was positive–didn’t mean anything. Now it’s negative and it means something?? WTH? Can’t have it both ways…..

  8. f00dl3 January 12, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Terry –

    AO doesn’t mean a damn thing if we can’t shake that ridge. A deeply negative AO will actually mean our air will be sourced beneath that ridge, from the Baja region.

    I’m more interested if Gary’s EBPI index changes as it usually does in the next 3 weeks. If we can get the EBPI index to change significantly then positive AO or negative AO, positive NAO or negative NAO – it won’t matter. All storms will be more functional.

    • Bluetooth January 12, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

      And what are the odds of that happening in a cyclical set-up???? I sense several more poof moments……

    • Urbanity January 12, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

      An observation I made over this past year, our big rain events occurred several days after the PNA and AO were both strongly negative and the NAO was also near 0 or negative, I am guessing a negative PNA would indicate perhaps less ridging out west. The relationship between the global oscillations and weather is still not understood very well, there was a drought year, I think 1975, when the NAO stayed negative for the longest period in recorded history (several months), yet during that period the middle of the country suffered a near record drought. Yet other years the NAO has been negative and the reverse has happened. If memory serves me right, the global oscillations are the most difficult weather related phenomenon to predict, in fact it’s hard to decipher what the oscillation is/was until days or even weeks after the event.

      • f00dl3 January 12, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

        Exactily. A deep negative AO would put us in a great spot for rain but because the flow will be around and south of the ridge there will be no Arctic air involved, and no wintery precipitation. Just rain.

  9. Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Well yeah bt…poofs are always in effect. Even if every model/ensemble shows snow, there will always b a poof watch in effect. With that said, i think the contest will end by mon.

    • Bluetooth January 12, 2018 at 11:37 pm - Reply

      Even if the snow has a negative moisture content, lol…

  10. Dan T January 12, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    What’s the average precipitation for January? Since The beginning of the year I now have .60 for the month here in Olathe. Seems these systems are now producing- just not inches of snow yet.

    • Dakota January 12, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

      Average precipitation in January for KC is 1.07″, most is 5.52″ in 1916, and least is 0.02″ in 1986. Average snow is 4.6″, most is 30.5″ in 1962, and least is a trace in 5 different years, most recently 1992.

  11. Troy Newman January 12, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

    Was a nice band of snow from Salina to Marysville that put down 3-5″ if you want to take a drive to look at snow. I did notice that the extended guidance shows more of a trough in the Western US and Ridge in the East. That would be different. Not sure if it will happen.

  12. Ron January 12, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

    Long-time lurker and found a website that has the snowfall models all in one place http://www.midwestweather.org/p/computer-snow-output.html

    • Richard January 12, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

      Ron
      Nice ! Very nice. Thanks !

    • Steve January 12, 2018 at 4:12 pm - Reply

      That web site is as cool as well the weather outside!

  13. Melanie January 12, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    I have plans to travel to and from Branson this weekend. Should I be concerned about the chance of snow on Sunday when i return to KC? If it’s less than 2 inches and limited the KC area, I think I can handle it. Also what is the timing for Sunday?

  14. Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Testing

  15. Jared January 12, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Testing

  16. Stl78 January 12, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

    Testing

  17. Stl78 January 12, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    Not sure why i had to log back in but ok then. I think the contest will end by mon. Bt u make it back to ia?

    • Richard January 12, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

      Jared ? Hi Jared ! 😄

    • Bluetooth January 12, 2018 at 11:39 pm - Reply

      The snow was up in Minnesota-cost me another day of flying…..

  18. Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

    Yes sir. Feel free to call me either. Ive had stl78 as my handle for 10yrs or so on here but my name is jared

  19. Stl78 January 12, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Not sure why i have to sign in every time now!!!!

  20. Stl78 January 12, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

    If i dont sign in my comments either get eatin up or r awaiting mod…what gives?

  21. Stl78 January 12, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

    Richard, i responded to ya but it will prolly say anonymous

    • Richard January 12, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

      Saw it 😄
      NOW I am having to sugn in too ! What gives

  22. Weatherby Tom January 12, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

    So, technically, if we (the Plaza) keeps getting .8, .9 inches of snow, in little small events, KC could feasibly end up with over 10″ of snow for the season, but the Snowflake contest would not have a winner. Am I right on that??

    • Heat Miser January 12, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      well, and we are likely even in the next several days to get 2-4 inches.

    • Weatherman January 12, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

      We would need 8 more snow events to reach that.

    • Gary January 12, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

      You would be correct.

      Gary

      • Richard January 12, 2018 at 7:10 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Will you be at the station to measure if it comes on Monday morning ?
        Need verification by 2 mets 😄

        Just teasing. But it will be cold, blowing snow with that blast coming. Hard to measure blowing snow.
        Is the measuring area in a protected spot ?

        Also, I see here goes having to sign in my name and email again.
        .

  23. Fredd32 January 12, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Thanks Ron! That website is great!

  24. Weatherby Tom January 12, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    I guess what I am trying to say is, it’s a miracle the Snowflake contest ever ends round these parts

  25. Snowflake January 12, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    Does the contest require 1″ fall in a single event, or is the contest satisfied when 1″ is accumulated snowcover on the ground?

    i.e., if we got 0.8″ one day and then a break, some cold clear sky, and then the next day, another 0.8″ fell on top of that..it would obviously all compact a bit, but for argument’s sake, if it created a blanket that was now around 1.3″ thick…would that end the contest because it’s over 1″ or would it not because 1″ didn’t fall in a single event?

    • Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 3:19 pm - Reply

      I believe it has to be from a single event.

    • Richard January 12, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

      One inch in one event

    • Gary January 12, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

      No it does not require one inch in one event. It is so amazing that we even have to discuss this, but the contest ends when we reach a 1″ snow depth. So, if .7″ falls Sunday, and there is still .7″ on the ground on Monday, then we get enough snow Monday, say .3 to .5″ on top of the .7″, then the snow depth will likely be 1″ deep, and that would end the contest.

      Gary

      • Richard January 12, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

        Gary,
        Never knew that !
        So, the final-last part of the inch is the winner ? Even if that part was the least ?
        .

  26. Bobbie January 12, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

    Looks to me like this clipper is digger further and further SW. KC is left with a dusting

    • Terry January 12, 2018 at 7:05 pm - Reply

      we don’t no what to happen.

  27. Richard January 12, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    Looking at snow Sun-Mon ! But another polar vortex slamming us on Mon.
    Too bad its so blooming cold kids can’t stay out very long if it does snow. MLK Day Monday no school.

    Having to sign in each time now. Anyone else besides me and stl78 ?

    • Gary January 12, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

      We are working on trying to prevent the site from slowing to a halt. I did let Bob, our Tech guy, know that whatever we did it caused this having to sign in each time now. Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town and we will try to get this fixed.

      Gary

      • Jason January 12, 2018 at 6:03 pm - Reply

        I didn’t have to sign in again. Just FYI

  28. Realist January 12, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

    Yup… gonna get missed again. No snow ladies and gentlemen. Most likely for the rest of the winter. Just looked over past history and the evolution of this years lrc and we won’t see much more that 10” this winter total. Bank on it.

    • Heat Miser January 12, 2018 at 7:07 pm - Reply

      omg dude, just stop with the no snow hysterics. We are barely we are only 12 days into winter and have had a couple little systems with a couple more forecast. We will be fine with the snow.

      • Heat Miser January 12, 2018 at 7:07 pm - Reply

        sorry, 12 days into January

  29. Realist January 12, 2018 at 5:16 pm - Reply

    Mehta a dud of a winter

  30. Phillip January 12, 2018 at 5:16 pm - Reply

    Hopefully we get at least get an inch or two out of these clippers!

  31. Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 6:41 pm - Reply

    Its weird that when i reopen the website it doesnt auto refresh. Well whatever. Hope everyone has a nice wknd!

  32. NoBeachHere January 12, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5593924/#!po=6.52174

    Takes a bit to read but, it may give a bit of insight into one of the many teleconnectors and possible influence to the NAO.
    The math and definitions get a bit funny but understanding the overall trend is intresting.

    Maybe some of you more educated can take the time and provide a good take.

  33. Plowboy87 January 12, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    Is the snow on radar reaching the ground? Looks like a small band coming down from North of st joe.

  34. Emaw January 12, 2018 at 8:15 pm - Reply

    We gain roughly 30 mins. of daylight between now and the end of January and it accelerates from there. Tick tock, tick tock.

    • Bluetooth January 12, 2018 at 11:41 pm - Reply

      Which will translate into warmer temperatures and rain!!!

  35. Phillip January 12, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

    Looks like a we get a brief snow shower here in a hour and a half or so

  36. Richard January 12, 2018 at 9:07 pm - Reply

    Light snow I-435 loop WYCO. Son was at NFM.

    Guess every other cycle does mirror itself.

    (Still have to log in to post my comment. )

    • Richard January 12, 2018 at 9:08 pm - Reply

      But page still loads slow too

  37. Phillip January 12, 2018 at 10:35 pm - Reply

    That snow shower just sits in the same spot and erodes at the south end of it when it hits Jackson county? Very interesting

    • Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 10:56 pm - Reply

      It isn’t natural, it is being modified some way, some how. My ears began getting very full the last hour or two and have been popping them like crazy. Checked the pressure and it went to 30 point something don’t remember but someone around here somewhere, someone big, has an agenda do things like this to erode our storm systems, suppress moisture, limit totals. Please please please have an open mind to this. You see how very odd this snow is behaving on radar. It isn’t natural and you witnessing first hand what power that be can do to our weather.

      • Weatherman January 13, 2018 at 12:50 am - Reply

        Pretty sure Verga is something that happens a lot during the winter. That’s why snow was scene on the radar and nothing fell because the mid level air columns are too dry for the snow to make it to the ground. Has nothing to do with weather manipulation or the government.

        • Anonymous January 13, 2018 at 1:16 am - Reply

          Virga*

          And it is not virga. The problem with you old people is you do not do your research. Weather manipulation DOES EXIST, an example of it is cloud seeding to enhance rain and snow. Many western states have cloud seeding programs either to reduce hail size, increase rain, or to enhance snow to increase water supply to provide power to the community via their hydroelectric dams (Idaho power cloud seeding).

          If man can manipulate weather to do what I said above and have been doing exactly this since the the 40’s (maybe 50’s?), then enough time has gone by for man to successfully manipulate weather to dry up moisture in a storm and at times (almost all the time for Kansas City) deflect storm systems/moisture from directly impacting the city overhead (exactly what happened tonight and what is still happening to the snow on radar right now).

          Now, some of this snow on radar may very well be virga, but since 9 this evening, what I saw on radar was a large area of snow being deflected, and not able to continue pushing south east. It is as though it just got stuck NW of KC in a Shawnee to Northland fashion.

          This happens way too many times almost always in the exact same areas above the city, always dissipating and/or fizzling once it reaches a certain distance or so many miles to the Pleasant Hill NWS which is always the center of the void or circle we commonly see on the radar.

          I will conclude by saying to all those who are closed minded to this, is weather manipulation is NOT a conspiracy. A form of it does exist, again, it is called cloud seeding. The best anyone can read on about this, is the Idaho power cloud seeding program.

          Goodnight!

          • Gary January 13, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

            Anonymous,

            This is simply not true. There is no cloud seeding program that exists in the United States, that I know of. I know there were some a long time ago, and perhaps they are still trying in Idaho? It does not work and it was tested decades ago and abandoned. It was virga, a meteorological phenomenon that happened and is still above us now, the snow sublimating before reaching the ground.

            If there is an Idaho power cloud seeding program, maybe they are testing, but I can tell you based on what I know, and it is impossible, won’t work, a waste of time and money.

            A new blog will be posted by Jeff soon. The morning NAM model has the two small snow events. Let’s track this together. The virga will become snow reaching the ground by later tonight.

          • Heat Miser January 13, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

            You have really got to stop watching those conspiracy channels about the weather control…it’s just utter nonsense.

  38. Anonymous January 12, 2018 at 11:59 pm - Reply

    Radar shows snow but zilch falling in Prairie Village

  39. SnowCommander January 13, 2018 at 12:13 am - Reply

    Test. Time 12:12 am
    Post time=?

    • SnowCommander January 13, 2018 at 12:15 am - Reply

      Very quick!

  40. Stl78 January 13, 2018 at 8:20 am - Reply

    Test

  41. Richard January 13, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    Gary
    Still think there might be freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon ? (What you said on the 5 pm last night.)
    I did not catch Jeff this morning

    Still needing to sign in to post my comment

  42. Lary Gezak January 13, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

    I’m telling you guys..

    The “GRC” The Gezak’s Reoccurring Cycle

    Also known as the Tonganoxie Split, or the Dome Theory.

    Why does precipitation coming from the W or SW always seem to dissipate for no real reason? At least in the winter, that is.

    • Heat Miser January 13, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

      But it doesn’t always happen, sometime yes, sometimes no.

  43. Bluetooth January 13, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    Groundhog day is only 20 days away!!

  44. Richard January 13, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

    Where is the keep me signed in button on here

  45. f00dl3 January 13, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

    The reason radar shows the precip dieing as it closes in on the city is because the altitude the radar beams are sampling the virga. The beams shoot at a pitch, meaning beams are tilted. Right over the city it’s hitting levels where the precip has evaporated, but further out it’s higher in the cloud. This is also why radar is bad at picking hook echos/rotation on storms over 40 miles away. This is a technical limitation of weather radar. No conspiracy!

  46. Mr. Pete January 13, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    No blog today? And like the others, I’m having to sign in every time now. Seems like this blog has fallen apart this week.

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