Arctic Blast Arrives With Some Winter Precipitation

/Arctic Blast Arrives With Some Winter Precipitation

Arctic Blast Arrives With Some Winter Precipitation

Good morning bloggers,

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas.  There is a storm system tracking across the plains and you can see the areas of rain and snow on this radar map from 7:30 AM:

Screen Shot 2018-01-11 at 7.26.36 AM

I just took Sunny The Weather Dog outside and it is turning much colder and very windy. It really hits you in the face with rain and temperatures falling. The temperatures are going to drop to way below 32° through the 20s and into the teens this afternoon.  Schools have been cancelled today. There will be some icing and dangerous conditions, and then maybe a little bit of snow, but the snowflake contest is likely to continue. The main disturbance just needs to track southeast of KC and an inch of snow will fall, but take a look at where it is, and I drew on the track:

Screen Shot 2018-01-11 at 7.39.02 AM

It is really incredibly frustrating to myself right now, as this disturbance is very close, but it is tracking northwest of KC. This will make it very difficult for any significant snow to fall, but there should be some after the disturbance moves by.  Temperatures will drop so be very careful as it ices up in the next few hours.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now through 9 AM: Rain changing to freezing rain. Temperatures dropping into the 20s with icing up of non treated and elevated surfaces such as decks, driveways, bridges, off and on ramps.
  • 9 AM – Noon: Freezing rain changing to sleet or snow. Accumulations of under an inch possible. Slick and hazardous driving conditions likely continue to worsen. Temperatures dropping to near 20 degrees.
  • Noon – 6 PM: Snow tapers off to flurries with a dusting to under an inch on top of the ice possible. Temperatures dropping into the teens.

Have a great day. Due to the heavy traffic from so many people, this blog has been getting slow. We are working on finding ways to fix this problem. It has happened when winter storm systems approach in the past. Thank you for your patience. Thank you for sharing this weather experience, go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-01-12T07:22:08+00:00 January 11th, 2018|General|101 Comments

101 Comments

  1. sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

    0.27″ of rain so far in KC North. Changeover to frz rain/sleet imminent. Close but no cigar on snowfall for KC, other than a dusting perhaps.

  2. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

    Looks like the last of the precip is now moving through the city. Should be over by 9 AM for the metro. The blob near Topeka is going to St. Joe.

  3. Steve January 11, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    The NWS in Kansas did a poor forecasting job with this storm. Unless you watched the models yourself, you had no idea this was coming until it was here. Winter Storm Warning not issued until 3 am?? I guess they went very conservative due to pass storm misses.

  4. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Did anyone see the video of guy walking out of his house to go to work then he hits the black ice in his driveway and manages to stay up till he gets to bottom of driveway then wipes out into grass. It was on the TWC…. LOL

  5. Jill January 11, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    Maybe, just maybe, this opens the door for accumulation with the upcoming chances of precip. Fingers crossed!

  6. Richard January 11, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    There have been days when no storm is coming, blog has over 100 comments, but not slow like this.
    Unless it is the hits that slows it down ? I know nothing about this stuff, but very frustrating.

    • numb3rsguy January 11, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      Richard,

      It would be the number of people on the website at the same time that slows it down. The total number of hits wouldn’t do that.

      • Richard January 11, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

        numbersguy
        Makes sense. Thanks.
        Seems to be better now

  7. LYITC41 January 11, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Hope everyone gets to wherever they’re going safely as this hawk moves in. Fortunately very little snow w/ this but the ice is going to be a pain. The moisture we are getting is good considering how dry we’ve been.

  8. Weatherby Tom January 11, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Moderate sleet coming down here, roads, rooftops, decks totally white.

  9. Richard January 11, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Testing testing

  10. Bobbie January 11, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    The furry animal’s blog is never slow like this….

    • Richard January 11, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

      It does not get the traffuc this one gets. Maybe because JL does not advertise it on radio and t.v. or at conferences.
      He said he was the very first one to put out a blog here in KC too.
      Keep in mind, this blog was first the money maker blog. It left kshb blog in the dust. Now the 2 are combined, and still kshb is left in the dust.

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

      LoL…it doesn’t get anywhere near the traffic of this one. Hardly any comments either.

  11. Mr. Pete January 11, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Blog barely working

  12. Bill in Lawrence January 11, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday morning again to you sir.

    Had a couple of moderate bands of sleet/freezing rain move through which has given me between .10-.25 of frozen stuff on the ground….can for sure see the sleet!! My 3/4 mile gravel drive way is pretty much iced up and of course I did not buy any deicer for this year….I am brilliant I tell ya….brilliant!!!

    Once this all said and done I will have close to .55-.60 of qpf from this storm…not too bad at all!! As I respectfully argued in my previous entry, this storm did not go poof nor did it miss….this has been the biggest impacting storm since October and quite possibly one could argue the biggest impacting winter event (that actually occurred) in the past 2 winters. It would have been great to have some snow,but this is a pretty typical outcome for a set up like this.

    Does this open the door for cycle 3? Time will tell….we for sure had a twist with this storm when compared to cycle 2 and we do have more cold air to work with in this pattern than last year. For sure though, cycle 3 has opened the game with a nice jump shot and a lay up in transition.

    Enjoy the day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  13. Fred Nolan January 11, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    Happens every winter. Massive page hits and blog goes down. Funny how it never happens during the Spring or Summer storms, just winter.

  14. BP January 11, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    As someone who routinely checks this blog and enjoys learning from the intelligent questions and analyses in the comments I must say that the amount of complaining about a slow blog and slow to post comments are pretty hilarious.

    The slowness is a sign the blog works. It’s slow because thousands of people find it is reliable source of timely information.

    I have to assume that people who get mad on these comments also get pretty angry when traffic is heavy on the highway. Patience, people.

    Also, thank you Gary and Jeff for creating such an informative blog and for seeking to find new patterns. Thanks also to the dozen or so smart hobbyists who put time into their posts, debate intelligently, and teach me so much.

    To those who are truly angry due to slowness, intermittent moderation of comments, that Gary doesn’t quickly respond to you, or the fact that predicting weather isn’t 100% precise…for your own sake’s….take a walk or something, breathe a bit, it will be ok.

  15. Richard January 11, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    They need to revamp this blog. Is it a server issue ?

  16. Tdogg January 11, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

    I can report absolutely zero snow so far.

    • Richard January 11, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

      It’s over. Done. Gone

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

      we had rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow here in Lawrence. More snow would have been nice, but what can you do.

      • Shawn in Lawrence January 11, 2018 at 3:24 pm - Reply

        What part of Lawrence? In north-central near Kasold and Peterso we got about 1/4 inch of sleet and another dusting of snow on top of that.

  17. MikeL January 11, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

    Just another sleet storm about done here in SW Topeka. The search for significant accumulating snow continues onward…

  18. Three7s January 11, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    Was hoping for a bit of snow to fall on top of the ice for traction, but that obviously won’t be the case. Big surprise.

  19. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

    dryslot over the 435 loop , AMAZING

  20. NoBeachHere January 11, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    Blog is Sloooooow!

    Something else is the problem?

    Anyway, happy with the moisture.
    If the trend continues, then the harmonics of every other cycle could the case. To early to know until 3rd cycle is complete.

  21. LYITC41 January 11, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    Hurray for dry slots! Less snow, ice, mess!

  22. Rickmckc January 11, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

    Sad to see this storm fall apart right over top of us. Also sad to see the server capacity fail when it’s needed most.

    I love this blog and the interaction with Gary and others but, honestly, this interface leaves much to be desired. Richard and others have repeatedly asked for a down arrow plus it’s impossible to read replies to comments on a smartphone. Surely there are other options/providers/etc.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 11, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

      Turn your phone to the side, then you can read comments better. Little trick I picked up. I got about 1/4″ of rain at the farm, shut off before it got cold so no ice down there. That’s 3/4″ of precip in past 5 days, not too shabby. Latest Runs of GFS throw out any snow over weekend, then again GFS shows it would be snowing in KC right now but we all see the system is drying up and no snow whatsoever will be falling.

  23. Kstater January 11, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Even though radar has been showing it as snow in Lawrence it just changed from sleet to snow in the last 5 minutes. Hopefully we can squeak out 1/2 an inch but radar isn’t promising.

  24. Kurt January 11, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

    over half an inch of rain early this morning, followed by a couple hours of mixed bag and now very heavy snow on the backside. Finally got a storm that produced a some good precip and getting a quick shot of snow, probably now up to half an inch so might just get an inch of snow today.

  25. Elaine Watson January 11, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply

    I have a radar question related to the above post, I live 5 miles east of McLouth and radar showed snow but we only had sleet.Getting a small bit of snow now. We did get .21 in rain before temperatures crashed…if only that had been snow. At least it was all a bit of a surprise compared to the models a couple of days ago. Like someone said maybe this will open the door for more!

    • Dakota January 11, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      Nothing you said above was a question.

      • Phillip January 11, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

        😂😂😂 radar cant always pick up on sleet vs snow

  26. Miss Jess January 11, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

    How is Sunday’s chance of snowing looking?

  27. Randy Keller January 11, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    boy…that storm was a dud. Less than an inch.

    GO SOONERS

  28. Terry January 11, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    GFS 12z this storm looks good for Our area and it’s been showing few days now

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011112&fh=252

    • Richard January 11, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

      HAPPY BIRTHDAY TERRY !!! 🎉🎂🎈

      • Terry January 11, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

        Thxs richard

        • Bluetooth January 11, 2018 at 11:24 pm - Reply

          Happy birthday, Terry!!

    • Tim January 11, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

      I think the GFS just permanently keeps a system over KC 10 days ahead. LOL!

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply

      Really Terry? 12 days from now…don’t you ever learn. LOL

      • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 11:52 am - Reply

        Sorry, 10 days.

      • Terry January 11, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

        This Storm now that is on the GFS 12z model is showing Yes but the storm Fits this years LRC It’s part of October 21st to 23rd that is Cycling back through now so yes start should fit this year’s LRC . The Storm has been showing up for a for days now. This Was posted from A Blogger Rod This was Dated January 9th.

        http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018010900&fh=288&r=conus&dpdt=

        • Three7s January 11, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

          It fits the LRC, but it doesn’t mean it will be a major snowstorm. You should know this by now.

        • Rod January 11, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

          I hope this storm produces Terry, I’ve been watching all the runs since I posted that map on Jan 9th. I really hope it produces at least a couple of inches. In the more near term models show a few inches of snow this Sunday into Monday from a couple of clipper systems over my area near Columbia. NWS has a 30% chance of snow Sun & Sun night & a 50% chance Monday. It appears to be a NW to SE jet streak type setup swinging through, exact placement still in question. Really hoping to get enough snow to break out snow tubes & take my kids snow tubing. Happy Birthday Terry!! My birthday wish is to bring you a snowstorm. Hope it comes sooner than later.
          Rod, Ashland, MO

          • Terry January 11, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

            Thxs Rod

  29. Michael Casteel January 11, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Got about an inch up here in Maryville. Not even close to what I was hoping for. Where’s the 4-5″ we were suppose to get! I guess the dry, cold air is sucking the life out of it! Stay warm and safe Bloggers!
    Michael

  30. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

    Oh lord, it’s 12 days out!!!!!

  31. Freezemiser January 11, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

    Out and about in Independence, MO. Roads aren’t bad and nothing falling from the sky. I want snow!

    • Joe January 11, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

      Maybe next year

      • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 12:30 pm - Reply

        Or next week…

        • Tdogg January 11, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

          Or next LRC Robert.

          • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

            Or next week….

  32. Adam January 11, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

    The 12z GFS.

    Woooooooof. Eye candy.

  33. Bill in Lawrence January 11, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    Happy Thursday again everyone…

    Another quick check in…..have had light to moderate snow flurries since about 10:30 and they are still coming down. Not going to call it snowing but I have had snow flakes falling from the sky non stop for the past couple of hours. Drive and county roads are pretty slick around here…nothing trecherous but for sure need to use some caution. Been outside for a 2-3 hours doing some work around the property and while this may not be anything major, this a true winters day at least here in Douglas County.

    Totals for this event…..around .51 of qpf with around .5 to .6 of snow/sleet/freezing rain….not too shabby at all considering this storm in cycle 2 and what it looked like on the models just a short 36 hours ago, It is kind of ironic that the GFS had a better overall handle on the dynamics of this storm 10 days out than it did 3-6 days out.

    Stay warm everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  34. Gary H January 11, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Gary, how did your AMS conference presentation go yesterday?

    Gary in Auburn

  35. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 1:13 pm - Reply

    Gary, do you still hold out the EPBI is a separate pattern? If so that ridge may undrfo a huge transformation in 1-3 weeks

  36. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

    *undergo. May be what we need to hit or exceed that 21″. If we loose the ridge, with this pattern, it will be fascinating what happens.

  37. Snow Miser January 11, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    There’s a lot of snow coming down in downtown Independence that’s not showing up on the radar.

  38. stl78 January 11, 2018 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Happy bday terry!

    • Terry January 11, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

      Thxs stl78

    • Bluetooth January 11, 2018 at 11:28 pm - Reply

      Stl, the snow and wind was wicked in Minneapolis today. My flight got delayed and I’m having to spend the night in Chicago….

      • stl78 January 12, 2018 at 7:22 am - Reply

        That sucks bt! I hope u get home safely and quickly!!

  39. KS Jones January 11, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply

    The snowstorm finally cleared at 10:30 this morning, but the stiff wind is still here blowing snow to nearly white-out conditions. Took the Gator for a spin earlier this morning, and my tracks quickly drifted closed. Other than that, it is sunny and snow-blind bright. 
    Later today, I might take the Gator up into the bluffs to snap some shots of the drifts. Our trail to the top is one-quarter mile long with a 160′ vertical drop, and since it is on the north face, snow remains there long after it is gone from most places.
    It is currently 12° and the NWS predicts it will drop to zero tonight. The forecast for Monday gives us a 60% chance of more snow with a low temperature of -5°.

    • stl78 January 11, 2018 at 2:01 pm - Reply

      Where r u ks?

      • KS Jones January 11, 2018 at 2:50 pm - Reply

        Midway between Manhattan & Marysville overlooking the Big Blue River Valley.
        Here’s some trivia unrelated to weather– before John Charles Fremont’s map was published after his 1842 survey, The Big Blue River was named the Blue Earth River (just like the river in Minnesota).
        Blue Earth River is a translation of the Sioux Indian phrase Moh-E-Cato. The Sioux Indians named yours in Minnesota, and the Siouan-speaking Kaw Indians named ours.
        Your town, Mankato, was named from a mispronunciation of Moh-E-Cato, because the Sioux Indians pronounced Moh with a nasal tone.
        Mankato, Kansas (which is not on the Blue) was named by a guy from Mankato, Minnesota.

        • stl78 January 11, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

          Very interesting tidbit, thank u! Now to return the favor, did u know that winona ryder was from this little town and hence named after it? Its also 30 min from the home of the film grumpy old men (wabasha, mn) even tho most was filmed elsewhere. Hope u had fun out there. I just got done throwing about 3 to 4 in of wind blown snow. Your opportunity is comin kc. I can feel it!

  40. Weatherby Tom January 11, 2018 at 1:32 pm - Reply

    Snow Miser, same thing here, decent snow coming down with nothing on radar, wonder why that is??

  41. OUweather January 11, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply
  42. LYITC41 January 11, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    Weathertap radar is picking up on it, small bands out of the NW nothing major.

  43. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    Use the official nws radars at nws.noaa.gov. they show the light snow well.

  44. George January 11, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

    Nice flurries coming down here in OP. 87th and Antioch

  45. Rod January 11, 2018 at 2:10 pm - Reply

    Terry, here is the latest GFS & Canadian for the snow this Sunday & Monday, NW to SE band of 1-3” impacting from NW into Central MO. Canadian shows a larger area of snow with slightly higher totals. ❄️❄️❄️

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011112&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011100&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=

  46. Rod January 11, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

    Terry, here is the latest GFS & Canadian for the snow this Sunday & Monday, NW to SE band of 1-3” impacting from NW into Central MO. Canadian shows a larger area of snow with slightly higher totals.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011112&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018011112&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 4:49 pm - Reply

      Hmmm…one shows 2-3 inches for KC…BRING IT

      • Tdogg January 11, 2018 at 5:42 pm - Reply

        Don’t trust the models Robert

        • Paul January 11, 2018 at 6:18 pm - Reply

          It least it is not 10 days away

          • Paul January 11, 2018 at 6:19 pm - Reply

            At

        • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 9:17 pm - Reply

          That’s ten days out dogg, not two or three…try to stay with us there t-wee herman

          • Bluetooth January 11, 2018 at 11:30 pm - Reply

            Robert, is that you again???

  47. Elaine Watson January 11, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    And…on the next run..it’s gone ;(

  48. Weatherman January 11, 2018 at 5:42 pm - Reply

    I’d put money down that the snowflake contest ends Sunday.

    • Rod January 11, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

      I bet it does too, NWS office in St Louis saying two pretty impressive clippers will be coming in, on on Sunday affecting parts of the area & then another more wide spread event Sunday night into Monday affecting most of the forecast area with each one bringing 1-2” of snow. Coming in from the NW stretching from NW into central MO.

      • KS Jones January 11, 2018 at 10:35 pm - Reply

        Out this way, the NWS changed their prediction of a 60% chance of snow on Monday to Mostly Sunny, and then forecast a 40% chance of snow for Sunday night.
        I melted the sleet & snow that had accumulated in the rain gauge and got 0.55″ of water. I don’t know how accurate that might be, but there was 4″ of frozen stuff in the gauge and that was typical of the reports from this area. Sleet caused a lot of racket as it pinged against our windows, and that lasted nearly three hours, so much of the water was no doubt melted sleet.

    • Dave LS January 11, 2018 at 11:16 pm - Reply

      I’d be interested. I’m a betting man.

  49. JoeK January 11, 2018 at 6:03 pm - Reply

    Terry,

    Happy birthday! Hope it was a good one and although this storm didn’t give us a whopper, it was exciting to track. hang on as we have two more small systems to watch for the weekend that may give us something to be excited about. Also, I am still confident that we will have a system between Jan 21 and 23rd that could be exciting for KC

    • Terry January 11, 2018 at 8:12 pm - Reply

      Thxs joek

  50. Urbanity January 11, 2018 at 6:29 pm - Reply

    About an inch west of Salina, storm had a narrow band of 3″ over Salina and northeast from there. Really no rain to speak of, very little snow, i am guessing less than 15/100th’s, so the beat…I mean the drought goes on.

    “it’s gonna be dry, it’s gonna be cold, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your winter”.

  51. Urbanity January 11, 2018 at 6:33 pm - Reply

    Interesting PNA, AO, really going negative next week, if accurate look for a big storm to hit Jan 23-24th time frame.

  52. Tdogg January 11, 2018 at 9:06 pm - Reply

    Wow the NAM looks good…for NOTHING!

  53. Mr. Pete January 11, 2018 at 10:35 pm - Reply

    Is this blog working? Won’t load on my PC.

  54. Nicholas January 12, 2018 at 12:27 am - Reply

    Well I feel pretty good about the event here in St. Joe, got to have a strong arctic front move through after some rain last night/this morning, then we had periods of pretty heavy sleet this morning with strong winds, that changed to some snow with a “tundra esgue” scene this afternoon with the sun peaking though with the snow blowing along the ground like sand on a beach. Going to chalk this up as a W here :).

  55. waldo weather January 12, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    Why would you post a new blog entry on KSHB and not 2020?

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