Winter Weather Advisory Thursday

/Winter Weather Advisory Thursday

Winter Weather Advisory Thursday

Good Evening Bloggers,

What? I am writing a second blog today? Something must be going on right? I just presented to the big AMS Conference in Austin and made some bold predictions using the LRC.  And, from the second I concluded my talk the trend on the models has been good. Now, we have been through this a bit before, so we are on a weather ride that may not end up so nice.  Three chances! I have said this before. Three storm systems, but we must break through the first one and we never break through, or we haven’t yet.  The first chance is Thursday. The second chance is Saturday morning. And, the third chance is Sunday.  We have had these three chances before, but when we don’t break through the first one, the the others fizzle as well. COME ON MOTHER NATURE! We deserve this.

Winter Weather Advisory:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Kansas City.  Right after sunrise on Thursday we are forecasting a strong cold front to blast through with rain, possibly a thunderstorm, changing to freezing rain, sleet, and possibly some snow.  Accumulations are expected to be light, but very slick, on the icing, and then a dusting to an inch of snow could fall fairly quickly, with a few spots possibly getting a bit more. Northwest Missouri has the best chance of 3 or more inches of snow.

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 2.31.30 PM

The wave of energy that is causing this potential fast moving winter weather event is trending farther south, just a bit. Some areas may get missed and if this is just a bit farther north that miss could be KC again, but as I said, the trend is south and a bit stronger.  I am getting on the airplane and heading back to KC. I will check on the blog from the air. The presentation this morning went very well. The response was overwhelmingly positive, but still a shocked look from my peers.

Here is the NAM Snowfall Forecast that just came out:

2

Thank you for reading the second blog of the day and go to Weather2020 to join in the conversation.  Have a great evening.

Gary

2018-01-11T14:08:24+00:00 January 10th, 2018|General|102 Comments

102 Comments

  1. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 10, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

    It’s back online

  2. Three7s January 10, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    As I said in the previous blog, I’m more worried about the rain freezing up than anything else.

  3. Mr. Pete January 10, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

    How much snow Saturday and Sunday? That’s only a few days away…

    • Kurt January 10, 2018 at 4:48 pm - Reply

      NAM shows essentially no snow through the 14th except just north and west of St. Joseph. The GFS through hour 300 shows maybe 1-2 inches with 3 plus just to the east of St. Joseph and northeast of Kansas City. However, how exciting if we get a quarter to half inch of liquid equivalent. That’s double what St. Joseph as had since last October.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

        Kurt , you look to pick up some possible thunderstorm action as well. Looking like a decent storm for you possibly, if you get a T-storm and couple inches of snow that’s a good storm for this year. Good luck

  4. Weatherby Tom January 10, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    Gary, if you wrote 5 blogs in one day, I’d probably read them all. Let it snow. Let it snow, let it snow!!

  5. JoeK January 10, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    Okay, so I am still baffled at the comments yesterday regarding Hurricane development. Seds, snowflake and RobertCali, You all are claiming that hurricanes in the Gulf are routine. From 2013 to 2016, Not ONE hurricane formed, not one and the average number of hurricanes to form in US waters annually is 2.4. Source: NOAA-National hurricane Center 1851-2015

    Sedsinkc, you made another statement today that the most likely place for hurricanes to form are in the Gulf. Wrong. According to NOAA/NHC, the most likely place for hurricanes to form would be in the Atlantic open waters as they have more room to grow and develop, not the Gulf.

    So lets break this down, over 3 years with ZERO hurricanes in the Gulf, only average 2.4 ( two point four) a year in all of US Waters and Hurricanes are more likely in the Atlantic over the Gulf. The aforementioned facts come straight from NOAA/NHC. With this in mind, please explain the logic behind your positions that predicting a hurricane during a specific week and specific geography is easy and routine?

    I’ll say it again, perception is not reality. I realize many want to believe it is. As for me, I stand behind science and the facts. The fact is, predicting a hurricane anywhere in the world with specificity is extremely difficult and unprecedented prior to the LRC. If the LRC is able to accomplish this and I believe it will, it will absolutely be ground breaking as it will save lives and property through increased awareness and preparation.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 5:04 pm - Reply

      If Gary had called out a couple major Cat 5s in the Caribbean I would be sold on tropical forecasting ability of LRC BUT there is something missing from the toolbox. He forecasted a system for the gulf, but wasn’t given any clues about the multiple strong Hurricanes that developed like Maria and Irma. To be fair, Where was LRC for those terrible hurricanes?

      • JoeK January 10, 2018 at 5:23 pm - Reply

        Real Hume,

        Okay, so you have been on here for awhile now and also know that the LRC is evolving as is Gary’s knowledge of it. I am focused on the prediction that a hurricane will form in the Gulf during the week of September 1 2018. Can we agree that if that happens, it is ground breaking? We can debate the past however, I am looking forward and my response was regarding the Sept 1 2018 prediction by the LRC and the posts regarding it. If you go back and read, the folks posted stating that predicting a hurricane in the Gulf in the month of September is routine or easy. It isn’t and historical data, science and the facts support that it is anything but routine. That is the only point I was attempting to communicate

    • Tdogg January 10, 2018 at 5:04 pm - Reply

      Are you related to Gary? Everyone is entitled to an opinion bud

      • JoeK January 10, 2018 at 5:16 pm - Reply

        You are correct, everybody is. I am simply stating the facts as they are which can be verified through NOAA. No, I am not related to Gary. If you are stating that everyone can simply have an opinion regardless of truth and validity well, I am not sure how to respond to that. I guess wrong is right to some, facts be damned.

        And for the record, I am simply debating weather. I am not making childish comments, attempting to be disrespectful or using this blog for my own personal enjoyment. Read my response again and tell me where I was doing anything other than stating facts and asking for clarification on comments Tdogg.

        • ClassyCat January 10, 2018 at 7:15 pm - Reply

          Amen Joe. Hang in there. Don’t let some of the bloggers get to you. You are correct in your hurricane assessment. Some spew what they call facts without doing the requisite research. I’m interested to hear Seds rebuttal. As Tdogg stated everyone is entitled to their opinion. However, when the facts say otherwise those so called opinions get exposed. Some just don’t believe in the LRC, and that’s ok. Their opinion that it isn’t reliable is an opinion, but when some say “facts” about hurricanes that you debunked, or state that Gary would get laughed at by Mets at the conference…..those are just people that don’t like him. I mean how would Seds know? Is he a meteorologist? No he’s not.

          • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

            As you ask you shall receive “classycat”. btw I left you a response on the previous blog you should read. As to the LRC and hurricane prediction, I don’t accept the validity of the LRC/CPH as Gary presents it. It has obvious flaws. Gary acts as a salesman trying to sell his product, so he emphasizes the positives and sweeps the negatives under the rug. That said, even if there is true cyclicity in the midlatitude westerlies, which is how the LRC was initially developed and presented, I don’t see how that translates smoothly to the tropical easterlies where tropical cyclones form.

            • ClassyCat January 11, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

              Yes Seds, I read your response on the old blogs and am playing along and responding over on the old ones like you like to do. You should read my response. My comment about wanting to hear your response has not been addressed yet….I was referring to your hurricane “facts” being blown out of the water by JoeK. I mean what kind of so called scientist are you when you pontificate “facts” when they were proven to be nothing more than uninformed conjecture? You should do some more reading before selling it yourself. You’re just wrong about your hurricane assessment. Please address that and admit it. Look at JoeK facts above and rebut those with your incorrect GOM facts. I’m waiting. You can have your opinion of Gary as a salesman. That’s your right. It is an opinion, however, and not a fact. You can’t prove your opinion of him as fact can you? Until you can, please don’t act like you know everything about weather and his LRC. Continue to question and be a scientist, like a good scientist should, but until you have proof otherwise, the book is not closed on the LRC. Please question professionally. What kind of scientist are you? I know you’re not in the weather field.

      • ClassyCat January 10, 2018 at 7:00 pm - Reply

        As is joe K…..bud.

    • Fred Nolan January 10, 2018 at 7:11 pm - Reply

      How exactly would it save lives and property? Its not like these things just pop up like tornadoes. Most places now have plenty of advanced warning now.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 7:49 pm - Reply

        I’m hoping his forecast verifies somehow without hitting US coastline. I’m just saying to call out one hurricane is nice, but why can it sniff out one tropical system and not another? They are very hard to forecast historically, this would indeed be a huge breakthrough

        • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

          Dude, if a hurricane is located where Gary depicts it on Sept. 1, it WILL hit the US. 100% chance.

  6. Elaine Watson January 10, 2018 at 4:49 pm - Reply

    Glad we’re up and running…I almost panicked. Finally a tiny bit of excitement and I couldn’t get the site to load!!!!

  7. JoeK January 10, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    Terry,

    Keep your fingers crossed, you may recall that I said I believed this storm was going to over achieve and it looks like that may very well be the case. Also pay attention to Jan 21st as it fits the LRC and is another one I believe will impact us. Models will bounce back and forth on it so don’t worry about all the poofs. MMike is technically correct about the GFS. I am running my own test on it to see the results.

  8. Rickmckc January 10, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

    18z gfs from F5 Weather site shows 4 to 6 inches in KC. Maybe an outlier but the precip pattern and amount looks pretty similar to the GEM.

  9. Brian watson January 10, 2018 at 5:36 pm - Reply

    Gary has made hurricane predictions before and they didn’t pan out. I don’t expect this on to be any different. Inside of 48 hours most of his predictions are solid. I wanted to believe early on. As time went on and there were more results to compare it became obvious that even if there was a pattern to see it did not translate to any kind of accuracy. It’s not a bad thing. Kind of glad he doesn’t know. I like looking outside and just hoping it keeps snowing. If you knew exactly what to expect what fun would that be.

  10. Freezemiser January 10, 2018 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    It’s going to snow! – Freeze

    • Heat Miser January 10, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

      Bring it brother!

  11. Scott January 10, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    Insanity can be defined as “doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.” I feel that way with this weather pattern! While I am keeping expectations low for this storm, I just have a feeling that this one has a chance to surprise and produce. No, maybe not the 6″+ snowstorm. But at this point even an inch would be more than the models were indicating 24 hours ago. The trends today have been south and stronger. Looking forward to tonights model runs and tomorrow’s nowcasting…maybe the result will just be insanity! Here is to hope of something different- Dilly Dilly!

  12. NAT January 10, 2018 at 6:45 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    I see the winter weather advisory is out but does not include eastern Lafayette county. Do you believe we will also have travel difficulties around Odessa, MO?

  13. Richard January 10, 2018 at 6:56 pm - Reply

    Anyone seeing anything for week of Jan 21 ?

    Here’s a detailed article from weather centre blogspot about a major storm Jan 23-27. And he thinks it will impact us here.

    “confident in the chance for a winter storm in the country sometime between January 23 and January 27, with precipitation chances potentially favoring the mid-section of the country, from the central Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.”

    https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2018/01/january-23-27-potentially-significant.html

  14. LSDoc January 10, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

    I thought the trolls on here would be banned? Why am I paying for this site?

    • Fred Nolan January 10, 2018 at 7:05 pm - Reply

      Why are you paying for this site? This site has been free now for sometime…

      • Choppy January 10, 2018 at 7:43 pm - Reply

        Correct

  15. Bobbie January 10, 2018 at 7:02 pm - Reply

    I have enough milk, eggs, and bread to make it through this terrifying storm. I look forward to the live reports from the salt domes…we better get something as much as the local’s are covering this.

  16. Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 7:24 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday evening to you sir…hope you had a good flight back!! So glad to hear that the conference went well!!!

    Looking at the current surface observations, it appears that the front is currently through Hill City and then just across the border from Concordia, Kansas. There are some pretty decent echo returns erase of Denver and pretty good area of rain in west central Texas….it appears this storm is trying to get its act together or keep its act together.

    To be fair, there is really not much to say about all of this until we get to to tomorrow night and see what exactly this storm can do here. Let’s face it..the 0Z runs could come out and take this back north and leave us high and dry. Obviously, based upon cycle 2, one would assume that is exactly what will happen. Time will tell.

    That said, if the 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS and NAM are on the right track with this storm, (and honestly even those runs did not produce anything major so to speak) and we wind up with say .45-.55 of qpf and and inch or so of snow along with the crashing temps. then I would respectfully argue that this storm did indeed produce for this area. Again, this is nothing major but it is sure more than any set up of cycle 2 and shows that maybe we can squeeze out 10-11 inches of snow or snow/sleet/freezing rain combo over cycle 3. This is all just talk until we actually see what happens but as of this moment, there is no doubt that this storm looks much different than it did yesterday on the models. I doubt anyone including me would have predicted on Sunday or Monday we would be in a winter weather advisory for tomorrow.

    Time will tell; the strom is supposed to be here and here it is…lets hope the 12Z and 18Z are correct and we can get that cycle 3 twist to this storm. It can happen…look at 2009-2010…the Christmas Blizzard sure did not produce another blizzard in cycle 3 nor did the 14 inch storm we got in cycle 3 in February 2014 produce in cycle 2. There can be twists to storms in each cycle….not with every storm nor with any frequency but 1 or 2 can have a twist. In other words, this winter was never going to be above average snow fall….the writing for that was on the wall early….however, there are enough storms and cold parts that you could argue 1-2 maybe 3 in cyle 2 and 3 could have enough of a twist to give some winter weather. This is a serious test for sure!!

    Have a great night everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  17. TonganoxieSplit January 10, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    When we get some new data? Im ready for it bring it on!

  18. Terry January 10, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    Storm terry is coming

    • Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 7:49 pm - Reply

      Terry:

      I hope so…for no other reason than for you to have some sort of winter weather on your birthday!!!!

      Hope it happens for you!!!! 🙂

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Heat Miser January 10, 2018 at 8:04 pm - Reply

      ***Winter Storm Terry**** – BRING IT!!!!

  19. Eric Rothrock January 10, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

    When are the new models coming out? Post links? Anything looking like it’s gonna head more south?

  20. BSMike January 10, 2018 at 7:53 pm - Reply

    Actually it’s name is Hunter Terry per TWC

  21. BSMike January 10, 2018 at 7:59 pm - Reply

    Terry I do hope you get the snow present 🎁 on your birthday

  22. Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

    It looks like the surface low is sitting between Pueblo, Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle…I think??

    Will be interesting to track….my gosh…there is actually something to track!!!!! I mean this is pretty funny if you think about it….even if the 12Z and 18Z are correct we are talking a very minor event in so many other winters….but considering the last 2 and the lack of snow so far this winter….this may as well be a blizzard LOL I’m not even sure if it matters if it verifies or not….just having 6 hours of thinking we could have something…..not sure I can bear to look at the 0Z runs!!!! 🙂

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  23. REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 8:43 pm - Reply

    See that little Vort lobe about to enter SW Oklahoma, It’s clearly visible on radar. That will interact with the system to enhance our precip here, HRRR shows some decent looking storms in early morning hours. Modeling that Vort perfectly,love HRRR!

  24. Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:18 pm - Reply

    Gary, tech team
    2nd day now trouble getting this site to load. It was slow on Mon too. But yesterday and today really bad.

  25. Gio January 10, 2018 at 10:20 pm - Reply

    NWS is still making this out to be basically a non-event for KC, yet all of the major school districts have closed. Am I missing something here?

    • Heat Miser January 11, 2018 at 3:20 am - Reply

      How is flash freezing creates potentially an ice rink a non event?

  26. Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Does the tech team know
    this is 2nd day now trouble getting this site to load. It was slow on Mon too. But yesterday and today really bad.

    Considering a STORM is coming there should be over 100 comments on here, but there isn’t.
    Imagine many are having trouble getting on here. Took me 4 tries and about 15 min to load the site, then load comments.

  27. Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    Testing testing

  28. Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:30 pm - Reply

    My comments were not posting, so I kept trying. Sorry

  29. Michael Casteel January 10, 2018 at 10:38 pm - Reply

    Looks like a rainbow of colors for nodaway County. Goes from four inches to a foot! Got the bobcats fueled and ready!
    Michael

  30. Rockdoc January 10, 2018 at 10:57 pm - Reply

    Taking a look at temps in the 925mb and 850mb layers, the warmer/wet layer is the 850mb. Looking at both RAP and HRRR models it appears that freezing precip may move in around 8am to 9am. I think it will be on the “early” side. As for myself, I plan on hauling myself out of bed earlier than usual and driving into downtown before the changeover happens. Will be rechecking models and TV at 6am in case it has moved timewise. Just hope the city salts late morning through early afternoon as temps really drop. We need to make sure there is no ice for afternoon – evening rush hour. Slush/snow Ok, but no ice! Very worried about Friday morning though.

  31. Rockdoc January 10, 2018 at 10:59 pm - Reply

    Once again I’m in mod. This is absurd. I didn’t even post links. Bye. Done. No longer a viable blog. Shameful.

  32. Anonymous January 10, 2018 at 11:01 pm - Reply

    SMSD closed for tomorrow. What is going on? Surprise storm outta nowhere? Also, the site crashed about an hour ago, that is frustrating, especially when Gary just gave a symposium on why weather blogs are so helpful. They are not squat when they don’t work. Also, we desperately need a down arrow on this blog.

  33. Mr. Pete January 10, 2018 at 11:01 pm - Reply

    SMSD closed for tomorrow. What is going on? Surprise storm outta nowhere? Also, the site crashed about an hour ago, that is frustrating, especially when Gary just gave a symposium on why weather blogs are so helpful. They are not squat when they don’t work. Also, we desperately need a down arrow on this blog.

    • Rockdoc January 10, 2018 at 11:57 pm - Reply

      This is the biggest problem with Weather2020. There i smething going on with regards to constant blocking and people being thrown into moderation. It’s no longer an open real-time blog. I’m thinking of starting up a new blog page where this will not happen, where people can also post pics. And yes Mr Pete, the blog entry will be at the top which means you will want to go to the bottom and scroll up if you want to see what earlier bloggers posted. But I’d have auto arrow to facilitate.😊

  34. Dave LS January 10, 2018 at 11:03 pm - Reply

    I will be tracking this tonight into tomorrow morning. I know it’s crazy, but this is probably the most interesting storm for us, with all forms of precipitation. I guess if we can’t have a major snowstorm this is the next best thing.

  35. Rockdoc January 10, 2018 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    Gary, while it is fun to run a blog, if it can’t be maintained in a technical and professional manner such that everyone can participate where the participants are always in moderation it is no longer a blog. I’m sorry, but this blog has seriously degraded over the last year. It’s to the point I no longer want to participate. I’ll be looking to blog on other sites. When you work out the technical issues let me know. Until then I’ll not be here. It’s not worth my time or effort. I’ll also be letting others know on other social media so they won’t bother and get stuck in continual mod.

    • Gary January 10, 2018 at 11:52 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      We are aware. Today we had 100,000 hits on the blog, 10 times normal and the server couldn’t handle it. And, again, only a very few get held up. I thought we had your problem resolved, so sorry.

      Now, please understand it is frustrating to me too. I let Bob, our Tech guy, know. So, he is aware.

      Gary

      • Mr. Pete January 11, 2018 at 12:16 am - Reply

        Gary in addition, lets please get a down arrow on this blog, please? We have a up arrow. We really need a down arrow to – will help functionality.

  36. KS Jones January 10, 2018 at 11:15 pm - Reply

    It’s still 50° here, but the weather change is getting closer.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-central-region/weather-radar?play=1

  37. Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 11:48 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday again!!!

    One of my forecast parameters at school worked out….we have our one snow day!!!! It for sure seems premature giving that this storm could for sure miss us or we could wake up in the morning and the front is still to our west but considering we have a whole town of 16-18 year olds who have yet to really drive on snow or ice, I would argue that it is the right call.

    Appears the surface low has dropped just south of the Oklahoma Panhandle into the northern Texas Panhandle…..and the front has just passed through Russell; the winds in far western Kansas are something….Colby has gusts up to 50 from the north….Goodland has gone from 70 at 2:00 today to snow now….and the radar doesn’t look too bad….as of now, this storm still does have a bit of a kick….guess the real question is how well does it truly hang together over the next 10 hours before recharging in the Mississippi Valley??

    At the end of the day, everything we have seen today are just outputs by a computer model….will be interesting to see all the reports by this time tomorrow….for me, I will say I manage to pick up between .35-.45 of qpf which will include around an inch of snow/sleet/freezing rain/drizzle…..

    But my friends, we have something to track!!!!! 🙂

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley

    • Dave LS January 11, 2018 at 12:01 am - Reply

      I saw the wind there to bill, this little guy has a bit of a bite to him. I think he can hang on!! Deffenitly will be the fight of his life ha.

  38. Dave LS January 11, 2018 at 12:02 am - Reply

    Defenitliy*

  39. Phillip January 11, 2018 at 12:19 am - Reply

    Cold and not much precip… yay 😒 typical Kc weather

  40. Kurt January 11, 2018 at 2:00 am - Reply

    Hallelujah! I’ve been getting moderate rain for the past half hour and it keeps developing right near me. Finally broke the ice. What a welcome sound to here it on the roof and windows.

    • Rickmckc January 11, 2018 at 2:20 am - Reply

      Great!

      F5 Weather site presentation of 0z GFS (and GEM) continues to insist on 4+ inches of snow in KC, less in your area. ECMWF 0z picking up on the same idea but lesser amounts around an inch or two.

      Will be curious to see as this site costs $14/mo!

  41. Steve January 11, 2018 at 2:23 am - Reply

    How’s it look for downtown KC area?

  42. Michael Casteel January 11, 2018 at 4:15 am - Reply

    Only .03” so far in Maryville and temps dropping to 36’ Hoping it changes over too snow soon!
    Michael

  43. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 6:35 am - Reply

    cold front just hit here downtown, raining sideways now

  44. MikeL January 11, 2018 at 6:41 am - Reply

    28 degrees and sleet at my house in sw topeka.

    • Baseball Mike January 11, 2018 at 6:50 am - Reply

      Mike frozen precip here at 45th and Croco-
      I was shocked this morning when I looked at our rain gauge-we we’re blessed with .50 and if we can get another .10 from frozen this will be a very welcome event.
      Michael/Berryton

      • MikeL January 11, 2018 at 6:55 am - Reply

        Yeah Mike, I was happy to hear it raining early this morning. It’s been a while…

  45. Phillip January 11, 2018 at 6:42 am - Reply

    Only thing we’re really going to have to worry about is the rain that’s falling now freezing later in the day when it drops below freezing. We aren’t going to see much in the way of frozen precip falling from the sky today with this “storm”

  46. Phillip January 11, 2018 at 6:47 am - Reply

    DRYSLOT

  47. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 6:55 am - Reply

    at least it’s not boring, and I consider this breaking the ice as well!!

  48. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 6:58 am - Reply

    just south of Topeka radar seems to be blowing up and filling in, anyone else see that?

    • Baseball Mike January 11, 2018 at 7:06 am - Reply

      Mike
      Here in Berryton-just to the SE of Topeka the sleet is really coming down and the radar is filling in fast just to our west-I believe the storm is ramping up a little-as I told one of my fellow bloggers who lives on the opposite side of Topekan we received .50 of rain it is icing here now.

      Michael/Berryton

  49. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 7:09 am - Reply

    omg – NAM HRRR GFS all models say today went poof! No snow!

    SHOCK!

    I have no idea who pulled that image showing us getting 6″ of snow this afternoon. Pure lunacy!

    • Kstater January 11, 2018 at 7:17 am - Reply

      We were only supposed to get an inch or less and that’s still what they show. That 6” image had to be fake or from some random foreign model.

    • Anonymous January 11, 2018 at 7:18 am - Reply

      Agreed! 👌🏻

  50. Weatherby Tom January 11, 2018 at 7:17 am - Reply

    Just hit 32 degrees at my house, with rain/snow mix. Love weather days like this!!

  51. stl78 January 11, 2018 at 7:29 am - Reply

    Big deal. An individual posted a wx map on a wx blog. It may have had next to 0% chance of verifying but it was still computer generated prediction. Had it actually verified everyone would have been in disbelief. I have zero issues with someone posting a wx map, regatdless of how unlikely it is. Btw f00, u been riding your bike much of late? Did u put the studded tires on this yr? Have a great day! Cold front has really blasted througj here in se mn. They actually cancelled my kids school bc of the ice hitting at am rush. Should transitiin to snow quickly

  52. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

    Yup! Plan on doing a studded tire ride later today. Rode on the trails Monday after the black ice event – trails were completely glazed over, yet I cut through them like a hot knife through butter! Did 57 miles MON+TUE combined – no slipping unless I got off to use a portapoty!

  53. f00dl3 January 11, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

    (Didn’t bike yesterday – Ran 13.2 instead 😀 )

  54. Bobbie January 11, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Gary can you get your tech guy to install a down arrow please???

  55. stl78 January 11, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Wow, thats awesome! My wifes a big runner but shes having issues running in the extreme cold that weve had the past few wks up here. Keep up the great work. I hope at the very least kc gets some much needes moisture.

  56. sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    This is going to be mostly ice for KC. Vort max tracking very close to KC or just west, leaves the big snows well to our west and northwest. Sorry, snow lovers.

  57. KS Jones January 11, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    It is currently 18° with 30 MPH wind (25 miles north of Manhattan). We got 0.08″ of drizzle before it turned to sleet & then snow.
    Objects 1/8 of a mile away are not visible due to blowing snow, and as a result of drifting it is difficult to measure the accumulation, but my attempts showed 2.5″ so far.
    Radar shows the snow might continue here for another one or two hours.

  58. Bill in Lawrence January 11, 2018 at 7:53 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good Thursday morning to you sir!!

    Have picked up close .50 inch of rain so far and now have sleet and freezing rain…drive and trees are have a glaze of ice on them….loking at radar look to have some more light freezing rain/drizzle for an hour or two and that will probably be it.

    I will now respectfully argue that this storm did not go poof nor did it miss us. It was never going to be a major or even a mid major storm system but I have recieved a decent rain and now have frozen precip with crashing temps and strong winds….not too shabby at all considering cycle 2. Not too shabby at all considering the way things looked as late as Tuesday night. No..we may not get any snow out of this (jury still out there) but we have been impacted.

    Will this break the ice for cycle 3? Time will tell; the non-ice storm last year sure did not but this pattern has much more cold air to work with than last year so there may well be 2-3 more storms with a cycle 3 twist that we did not see in cycle 2. So yes…sticking with my 13-15 for Lawrence by April 1st. Looks my thoughts/40% of 1-2 more mornings in the single digits may even happen before the cycle 3 cold period hits so maybe more than that when it is all said and done.

    Just some thoughts…off to get outside and enjoy the cold winds and sleet!!!!

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  59. Weatherman January 11, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Last nights 02z HRRR really did a good job with this rain band.

  60. Weatherman January 11, 2018 at 7:54 am - Reply

    Last nights 02z HRRR really did a good job with this rain band.

  61. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 11, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    Did Gary SLEEP IN!!!

  62. BSMike January 11, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

    Snowing mixing in now downtown KCK/ KC

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