A 200+ Day Forecast For A Hurricane In The Gulf Of Mexico

/A 200+ Day Forecast For A Hurricane In The Gulf Of Mexico

A 200+ Day Forecast For A Hurricane In The Gulf Of Mexico

Good morning bloggers,

A major storm system just produced enough rain across Southern California to create major mudslides, flooding, and a disaster. 13 people were killed as one of the mudslides destroyed homes northwest of Los Angeles.  While this horrible storm tracks east into the plains, it is caught in the cycling weather pattern that is right on schedule according to the LRC.  When the pattern set up in October, a hurricane was caught at the beginning, around day 1 of this years LRC on October 7th. This was hurricane Nate.  This part of the pattern is likely going to produce a hurricane in future cycles.  Here is a tweet I made yesterday afternoon in preparation for the presentation I will be making today at the American Meteorological Society’s conference in Austin, TX:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 6.08.55 PM

While Kansas City braces for yet another miss, today we will look at the forecast that we made yesterday for a hurricane to likely be threatening the United States around September 1st by using this year’s LRC; this year’s 47-day cycle. Ten days ago we discussed how this part of the pattern may very well finally end the snowflake contest, and there is a chance between now and the end of the weekend, but the odds still seem low.  This weather pattern continues to produce miss after miss after miss.

1

There may be a band of heavy snow developing over central Kansas and then tracking northeast in a rather thin strip from southeastern Nebraska, into Iowa, and northeast to Lake Superior.  Then, the storm reorganizes and produces a major snowstorm from parts of Tennessee into western New York. This is likely going to be another miss for KC. Maybe, just maybe, a little dusting of snow or a mixture of precipitation will zip by Thursday.  There are a couple of systems that try to move in from the northwest Friday and over the weekend, but these are suspect as well.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy and mild. South winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. It will be dry with a high of 54°.
  • Tonight:  Cloudy and windy.  There is a 90% chance of some rain, and a potential for a few thunderstorms between 2 AM and 7 AM.  Low:  45°
  • Thursday: Cloudy and turning colder. The wind shifting to the northwest. A band of rain, sleet, and snow is likely going to track fairly quickly across the area. There may be some quick and very low accumulation of less than 1/2″ of any winter combination of precipitation.  Temperatures falling into the teens during the afternoon

So, as we can see, it is likely going to be a rather interesting and exciting next 24 hours.  After this system zips by, we have a chance of one or two systems coming in from the northwest, but I am not too bullish on these yet. Okay, let’s look ahead 200+ days.

Forecasting A Likely Hurricane Using The LRC

As shown in the first map of this blog, we are predicting a hurricane within a few days of September 1st to be affecting, most likely somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida west coast.  This part of the pattern produce Hurricane Nate on October 7th and 8th.  If you use the average 47-day cycle length, this comes out to 282 and 329 days from now, or July 16th and September 1st.  What we have found out is that hurricane season actually begins in October and November; it then goes dormant and re-emerges in June.  If there is an early tropical storm, then this is a huge indicator of an active hurricane season ahead.  So, we will be looking for this early indicator for this forecast around July 16th. Last year it was Tropical Storm Cindy that was the early indicator for the forecast of Hurricane Harvey that Weather2020 made 55 days before.  Go back and look at the June 27th Eclipse Forecast blog entry to see that bold prediction that verified. The chance that a hurricane hits somewhere from the Florida Panhandle west to New Orleans is around 25% for any given year, so we are forecasting way above the average for any given year.

I am presenting this today at the conference. My presentation is stressing how to write an effective and successful blog. Thank you so much for posting your incredible comments last week. I am using a few of them near the end of the talk. Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the blog on Weather2020, Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-05-29T23:25:15+00:00 January 10th, 2018|General|92 Comments

92 Comments

  1. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 7:35 am - Reply

    I am right on the edge of this system. 30 miles to my se a slushy in or 2. 30 miles to my nw 6+. We had a similar scenario a few wks back where a mere 15 to 20 miles were a diff of a dusting or 4 in. We too are behind on snowfall. I hope there is a little wobble on the 12z and we both get im on the action. My wife and i bought a new jeep wrangler yesterday and am anxious to try the 4 wheel drive. Have a great day everyone and good luck to u gary on your presentation!

    • KS Jones January 10, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      Is that bluff-top with the radio tower southwest of town a lookout point for general traffic or simply an access road to the tower?
      The view must be spectacular from up there.
      I don’t have the topo map in front of me right now, but as I recall, Pleasant Valley appears to have been well named.

      • stl78 January 10, 2018 at 11:22 am - Reply

        Im impressed ks! It is both. I believe you are refering to garvin heights. Google it and it will most likely pull up some photos. Its one of many lookout pts. Garvin heights sits about 700 ft above winona and u get a great birds eye view of town

  2. f00dl3 January 10, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

    The storm that was 10 days away went poof. Shock!

    • Urbanity January 10, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

      No way, MMike said the models are always correct 10 days out?!

      • MMike January 10, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

        Urbanity,

        It showed precipitation in your area and areas around you from 10 days out and that is in the forecast. So, in this case, it is correct. Strength and track from 10 days ago will never ever ever be perfect.

        Also, I did not say that the data is always correct from 10 days out because clearly it is not. Don’t say things that aren’t true.In this case, the GFS modeled a storm in the plains near KS and MO from 10 days ago, guess what, that storm is coming in tonight and tomorrow.

    • MMike January 10, 2018 at 8:07 am - Reply

      fOOdl3,

      The storm did not go poof, it’s going to hit tonight and tomorrow. KC just isn’t going to get the heaviest part of it. From 10 days out the GFS accurately predicted a storm in the KS and MO. Strength and track always have to be ironed out 24-36 hours before it hits. KC will still get some of the storm, just not the biggest part. The storm that hit Sunday this last weekend in KS and MO was also modeled by the GFS from 10 days out. No poof there either.

      You same folks continue to post stuff that isn’t true or facts to back it. I have posted the forecasts to back my statements.

      • Urbanity January 10, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

        MMike, I think f00dl3 was talking about a storm 10 days from now. I could be mistaken however. You are curiously a strong proponent of long range model forecasting, until you know the actual facts about their accuracy I would check the confidence level.

        Before the year 2000 the NOAA would not even publish a forecast beyond 5 days, then they went to 7 days, and just recently the 10 day forecast has emerged. Per the NOAA, “Using this scale we calculated the accuracy of the 6-10 day precipitation forecasts at the 50 stations in the United States and evaluated the improvement of the accuracy in the past 6 years. The results from the accuracy analysis show that the forecast has been correct about 40% of the time at each location.” Obviously, the inclusion of the 6 and 7 day forecast greatly enhances the accuracy, whereas if you just measured at 10 days there would be a significant drop off.

        I’ll repeat my belief, weather forecasting is not the merely recognition of a storm coming on shore and traversing across the US, it’s the recognition of it’s impact. So if the GFS shows a storm 10 days from now with snow from Denver to St. Louis, and then 10 days later there is a storm across Texas or South Dakota, that is not an accurate forecast. And let’s be honest, days 8-10 on the long range models have storms that drop off the maps all the time. I’m just sure what your argument here is, these are the facts.

        • MMike January 10, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

          “I’ll repeat my belief, weather forecasting is not the merely recognition of a storm coming on shore and traversing across the US, it’s the recognition of it’s impact. So if the GFS shows a storm 10 days from now with snow from Denver to St. Louis, and then 10 days later there is a storm across Texas or South Dakota, that is not an accurate forecast”……….. I did not say that…our discussion has been about a storm the GFS showed 10 days ago and now that storm is about to hit KS and MO.

          I’m not saying that the accuracy is 100 percent, not even 50 percent, I’m just backing up an argument that you guys claim that the data is completely wrong ALL THE TIME. I just proved that it is not the case. When this storm completes, there will be reports of snow from Denver to St. Louis. So, the idea of the GFS 10 days ago, was for a storm to develop in the area we have been discussing. It is developing now!!!

          Once again, I’m not here to say the data is right, I have always backed the idea you use the long range data for trends. In my previous posts, I have laid out that the trends that the GFS was modeling has been pretty darn good the last (2) 10-day forecast periods. I have posted the GFS 10 day forecasts to track how good the trends being modeled have been, I have proved that they have been damn good.

          10 days from now, do you know exactly what you will be doing? Will you be going to work, will you be on vacation, will you be hanging out with family? You have an idea what you might be doing in 10 days, but down to the exact hour you can’t be completely sure. Your every day trends might give you and idea of what you might be doing on that day. The GFS laid out a pattern that we might be in and the potential weather we may see. 10 days ago the trends from the GFS was for a storm to be in KS and MO around Jan. 6th to 7th, (that happened) it showed us going above freezing for the first time around the 6th or 7th in 15 days(that happened) and stay there for a 3-5 day period. It then modeled a storm in KS and MO around the 11th-12th, followed by arctic air.(I posted this, so i’m not making it up) That isn’t an accurate outlook from the GFS?? Perfect, heck no! But enough for you to plan and not be surprised.

        • Bobbie January 10, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

          ^^nailed it^^

    • Anonymous January 10, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

      lol

    • Heat Miser January 10, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

      That’s cause there was no storm ten days out…models cant forecast storms for KC ten days out.

  3. Three7s January 10, 2018 at 7:44 am - Reply

    Pretty sure I said the Ohio Valley was going to be a target this year per the LRC. Look what happens. A storm shows up producing a narrow band of snow to our west with localized heavy amounts, goes poof for our area, then does what ever other storm system has done since late October. That being reorganizing and blasting the Ohio Valley and northeast. I remember pointing this out late in cycle 1 and being told that the early part of cycle 1 had a ridge out east. I’m guessing that was the SE ridge. Amazing how that hasn’t played a role in deterring storms from blasting areas east of us.

    Just another ho-hum LRC.

    • MMike January 10, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      Three7’s,

      Most if not all of the OHIO Valley is below average on moisture and on snowfall.

      This is the first real potential storm for major snowfall in the Ohio Valley this winter, your statement makes it sound like they have had storm after storm. Not the case.

      • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

        Compared to the lack of precipitation we’ve had, can you blame me?

  4. Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 7:45 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Wednesday!!

    Good luck today!!!

    I am going to take it as a positive that the map you posted this morning is a far cry from the one you posted yesterday. Although it probably will not do it, this storm is close to breaking the ice and it appears it will for areas just to our west. This is as close to a functioning storm system as we have seen since mid October. To me, it again shows how a storm can react differently in each cycle. Another interesting note is the cold over the next few days…in cycle 2 this was just a quick hitting cold shot that lasted one day (I had low of 12 2 days before Thanksgiving) but in cycle 3, it is going to be a 3-5 day cold stretch.

    I don’t think anyone has ever argued that this was going to be a blockbuster winter and of course we may still wind up with 10 inches or less but this storm system and the way it looks right now and has evolved and changed on the models over the past 24 hours gives some hope to me that cycle 3 can maybe function just enough to give us some winter weather and a snow day….my reputation at school is counting on it LOL!!

    Have a great Wednesday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

      Sorry Bill, but close only counts with horseshoes and hand-grenades. Looking at the GFS and NAM, it is obvious what is happening with this system and how it fits the LRC completely. This really isn’t a functional storm, nor has there been since late October. Watching it evolve in the Ohio Valley shows what a functional storm looks like.

      • Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

        Three 7’s:

        Happy Wednesday!!

        I agree…I said as close to functional as we have seen…not functional.

        However, now the 12Z GFS has us with close to .50 of liquid precip…if this verifies, it will be the largest moisture producer since October..also, look at the swath of snow just to our NW….this is the biggest storm to impact parts of Kansas since October…

  5. Troy Newman January 10, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

    A comment and a question. I agree with Bill on functional storms. This is the first day I can remember since October when we had a SSE wind and I woke up to a wet sidewalk from the moisture. It seems to me that whats keeping us from getting a better storm is that its just racing by too fast. I looked back at the maps and we also had a low in cycle 2 at this time (much weaker) but it pushed through so quickly there really wasn’t any moisture falling at all. Is this just from the lack of blocking upstream?

    • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      I have to respectfully disagree on this storm being functional. Sure, this is about as close as one has come since this LRC has really started, other than early October, but look what happens. A narrow band of precipitation to the north and west, then it becomes truly “functional” well to the east of the viewing area. The Ohio Valley and northeast is getting a functional storm, we really aren’t.

      • Troy Newman January 10, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

        Well the results won’t be much around here anyway. I still think if this same storm took 2 days to cross the Plains it would have some impact. When you look back at the major snows we get usually the entire event covers at least 24 if not 48 hours. Maybe it starts as rain or sleet but eventually we have a long window of snow. We look to only have precip for about 4-6 hours at best this time and all of the systems in this LRC has been quick hitters. There is moisture to some degree that you can feel in the air. I am supposed to have wind gusts to 50 mph so there is some strength to the system. I remember quite a few times when a Low would stall out over SE CO or the panhandle region for a while before ejecting out but this one is just cruising right on through.

  6. Urbanity January 10, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    While we might get and inch or two out here in central kansas, the long term weather pattern looks to repeat per the LRC. A big ridge in the west and a trough in the northeast, so we are in the area where there is no storm energy and we also get the backside of the cold circulation, truly a worthless winter.

    “It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your winter”.

    • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

      We can’t get any moisture from the pacific because of “the ridge”, and the one time we got gulf moisture, it made things too warm. I’m just not seeing it with this pattern.

      • Terry January 10, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

        The ridge has Broken down some !

        • KS Jones January 10, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

          What is the jet stream going to look like when the cold north wind hits after midnight tonight?
          Is the downward flow over Nevada going to slide all the way east to here?
          http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
          …..
          The NWS predicts we’ll get slightly less than one-half inch of accumulated snow tonight and one inch tomorrow. The straight-line distance from here (25 miles north of Manhattan) to KC is 110 miles.

          • Heat Miser January 10, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

            woo hoo..that will be our biggest snowstorm this winter so far.

            • KS Jones January 10, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

              That NWS forecast was changed an hour or so ago with more snow.

              Tonight: Drizzle likely before midnight, then rain between midnight and 4am, then snow after 4am. Patchy blowing snow after 4am. Low around 22. Blustery, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

              Thursday: Snow, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

  7. Mike Myers January 10, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    Gary,

    What is your opinion on when the recent bomb cyclone will reappear as a strong tropical storm or hurricane? We were on a cruise last week and we were feeling the strong wind bands south of the Bahamian Islands for two straight days. That’s how large that storm was. Imagine if it had warm tropical waters to work with.

    Thanks,

    Mike

    • Gary January 10, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

      The bomb cyclone, as it was named by TWC apparently, is a large scale system that does not have the tropical connection. So, that system is very different from the more tropical features that show up allowing us to make the forecast in today’s blog.

      Gary

      • Snowflake January 10, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

        This one? twitter.com/glezak/status/948668119278637058

  8. f00dl3 January 10, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    We can’t really blame this one on the AO. AO has been negative all month. NAO has been slightly positive, but not enough to influence things. Again, because of this ridge out west a negative AO ain’t gonna do us any good because the blocking in the northern latitudes just deflects the storms head on into that ridge which rips them apart. If the AO goes too strong negative they will under cut the ridge and be way too warm to snow because the moisture fetch, if any, will be from Baja.

    We’re so screwed this winter.

    • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

      Actually, the latter scenario could work if we’re already in an arctic airmass. We just need the arctic high to hang around Montana and not wander off to the east like the last one did. That would keep us away from the warm sector, while still getting that gulf moisture, I believe.

      • f00dl3 January 10, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

        But anytime warm air advects over a shallow arctic air mass it’s an ice storm not a snowstorm. For a storm to dive around the ridge out west it would have to dislodge the upper levels of the Arctic high over us at that time.

    • Terry January 10, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

      The ridge out west has broken down some. So how could a storm out come in to California ? Will have are winter it will be a late start to it winter.

      • Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:26 am - Reply

        Terry
        Happy Birthday tomorrow.
        How old will you be.
        I hope you get snow !

  9. Mark January 10, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    This looks like a similar setup to me as last Monday morning where rain falls while it is still above freezing and then it all turns to ice after the temperature plummets. Gary, can you give an assessment for the afternoon commute tomorrow for the KC metropolitan area? Based off the timeline that I see, people should be fine getting to work and school tomorrow but getting home could be a real pain? One would hope the freeways would be well salted for the trip home but the plunging temperatures might affect that.

    • Anonymous January 10, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

      Are you from the Midwest. You are the first person in my 7 years living in Kansas City to call the interstate a freeway. Just curious. Thanks in advance. 🙂

  10. David January 10, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

    Im done with this winter. I’m ready for the spring outlook. I bet most severe wx events occur east of kc in the Missouri valley and Dixie alley areas. It is a La Niña year, so it may be a busier tornado season in those areas

  11. Fred January 10, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    Is it that big of a stretch to say that a hurricane may be in the GOM during hurricane season?

    And according to historical measures, hurricane season actually ramps ups during the later part of August, moving intoSeptember and October. Hurricanes and tropical storm systems steadily drop in frequency and intensity during the month of November, as ocean temperatures cool and the storm making low pressure systems that move off of the West African coast become less frequent.

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E17.html

    And, if a storm system shows up on July 16th and not on September 1st, does that mean that forecast based on the LRC verified?

    Just wondering….

  12. JasonAtt January 10, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

    I’m not an expert but have lived in KC my entire life. From my experience any pre-treating of the roads would be wasted by the rain. If the temps drop while there is water on the road then it will turn to ice. If the snow forms on top of the ice then it will stick around for awhile. The timeline of the storm is important. If the freezing could wait until after the morning rush hour then the road crews could clear before we head home. If it doesn’t wait then it could be another long morning.

  13. REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    I SEEM TO REMEBER “WARM AIR ADVECTION” SETUPS THAT WOULD REGULARLY PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH SNOWFALL. NOT HUGE SNOWSBUT 1/4″ TYPES AND USUALLY AT LEAST A FEW OF THEM A YEAR, SUDDENLY HASN’T HAPPENED FOR SEVERAL YEARS SEEMS LIKE. WHAT GIVES? I CANT REMEBER THE LAST TIME I EVEN HEARD THE SET MENTIONED. OPPS, CAPS LOCK. TOO LATE, NOT REWRITING THIS NOW, MAYBE YOU WILL THINK IM BEING OVERLY ZEALOUS WITH MY QUESTION LOL

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 10, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

      Meant to say 1- 4″ snows with WAA set up, the set up which has gone extinct

    • David January 10, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply

      Thats because we haven’t had many storms coming up from the Southwest in a long time

      • Troy Newman January 10, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

        Agree, how much WAA have we had? The wind is out of the NW almost constantly. Even when its warm it out of the West or calm most of the time. I suppose its because the trough base is often to our East.

  14. numb3rsguy January 10, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Latest Canadian model has 2-3″ of snow in KC on the 14th. That’s only 4 days away, so maybe it won’t poof like the 10-day storms?

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011000&fh=132&r=us_mw&dpdt=

  15. LYITC41 January 10, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    If anyone at NHC has seen this blog they’re probably having a good laugh along with their coffee this morning. But, we’ll see. It will be interesting to see if the “Gulf Hurricane” verifies. Hope it does not for the sake of the people living down there.

  16. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    The L tracks further south on 12z gfs! It warrants watching

  17. Fred January 10, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    The 12z appears to take the low pressure a little bit further south, drags the cold air in quicker, allows for a faster change over from rain to sleet to snow.

  18. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    I predict the contest will come to an end🤞

    • Three7s January 10, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

      It doesn’t have amounts any higher than the previous runs. I’m more worried about rain freezing up once the temperatures crash much like what happened on Monday.

      • Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

        Three7’s:

        The overall qpf on the 12Z GFS is the most of any run for our area…not saying it will verify as the NAM is much less but GFS has close to .50 of qpf with close to .65 just to our NW….

      • Bill in Lawrence January 10, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

        Sorry Three7’s…was trying to type that quickly before class starts and it cam off kind of snooty…

        I was trying to show that the 12Z GFS has more qpf for our area than any other previous run…if we do wind up with .50 of qpf from this storm, it will be the biggest moisture producer since October and much more than in cycle 2.

        I would respectfully argue that this storm with the wind, drop in temps, and now possibly close to .50 qpf is much different than it was in cycle 2….it is nothing major but it is much different than cycle 2…

        Just my opinion…

        Have a great day…

  19. Jsquibble January 10, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    If you can predict hurricanes so far into the future why hasn’t the LRC predicted the hurricane season that just passed? That would give more credence to the theory and give it a massive audience outside of the Midwest

    • Richard January 10, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

      It did. Gary did predict. I think

      • Jsquibble January 10, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

        I’m talking about how he can say this date a storm will happen and hit here, why was the same not done for the tropics

        • numb3rsguy January 10, 2018 at 12:47 pm - Reply

          As far as I’ve seen, Gary hasn’t done a forecast for every hurricane in all parts of the Atlantic Basin. Last year, he did make a prediction for a major hurricane on the Texas coast one full cycle (55 days) before hurricane Harvey hit, and it verified. That was a pretty good forecast. So hopefully this one verifies too! My guess is that it is difficult to predict every tropical disturbance, but when Gary sees a huge low pressure system down there that he knows will repeat in future cycles, it is probably easier to predict it will be a hurricane in the fall.

  20. David January 10, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

    I’m over winter. I’m now more curious with the spring outlook. I predict severe wx will be more likely over the Missouri Valley region and Dixie Alley. It is a La Nina year, so that’s why I think this (remember 2011 was a La Nina year, albeit this year isn’t as strong). Also, with the LRC, most storms systems come together east of KC. Just my two cents.

    • Richard January 10, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

      stl78
      Hunker down ! Shut the door ! Batten down the hatches
      Looks like you will get it

      • Richard January 10, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

        Get the bread and milk today !

        • stl78 January 10, 2018 at 11:38 am - Reply

          LOL Richard we are walking a fine line will see if the trend continues we are still not under any advisories

  21. Snowflake January 10, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply
    • Richard January 10, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Just talking about the blog ? Thought he was going to present the lrc for peer review

  22. SteveA January 10, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

    Gary, the 47 day lrc noted. whats the implication for some key corn belt states precip and temp. may , june, july , aug.

    many thank

  23. Jess January 10, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Did the Euro drop is south as well?

  24. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

    12z bout to roll out jess

  25. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 10, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply
  26. sedsinkc January 10, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

    Let’s play a numbers game, Gary. Suppose your cycle length varies by two days shorter for each cycle between now and September 1. This variation would be deemed an acceptable amount of variation based on comments you make to justify timing changes in the cycle. We will have 5 cycles between now and Sept. 1. If all the cycles are 2 days shorter, that would be a total of 10 days. Let’s go the other direction and say the cycles are 2 days longer than 47 days for the next five cycles, again an acceptable margin of error according to you. Are you saying if there is a hurricane near where you depict it in your graphic any time between Aug. 22 and Sept. 11 you are going to claim your forecast verified?? If you ever try this claim in a room full of professional meteorologists, they will be highly skeptical to say the least. A hurricane near your position in July would be better verification since hurricanes in July are much rarer, although if there is to be one the Gulf of Mexico is one of the most likely places it would occur.

    • ClassyCat January 10, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

      Certainly ok to question the LRC, but you don’t like Gary much do you? I’m judging from past comments.

      • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:27 am - Reply

        You’re a bad attorney, aren’t you? Or you like to make misleading statements. I did not mention the LRC. I talked about seasonal tendencies this year,without any reference to cyclicity, talking about this winter season. There are weather patterns and they may occur. I question the regular cyclicity Gary claims exist. The first comment is posing a question about if there is validity to Gary’s cyclic theory. Pay attention,son.

        • ClassyCat January 11, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

          Seds, scientist? Bad reader? You didn’t mention the LRC? What? Ok, I guess you didn’t write those 3 little letters, but when you talk about cycle length, what else would you be talking about? Don’t hide behind pure black and white. You now darn good and well that’s what you were talking about. Anything else is just not honest.

      • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:31 am - Reply

        You don’t know me, classycat. I am a scientist. It is a scientist’s job to question things instead of accepting things on their face value without impartial validation. I posed a hypothetical problem for Gary’s hypothesis. I have a great respect for Gary as a meteorologist, but I still question the validity of the LRC/CPH. Judging by your comment classycat you should change your name to attackdog.

        • ClassyCat January 11, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

          Seds, I’ll do like you and wait until other blogs have posted to respond. You mistake facts. You question the LRC all the time, which is ok in my book. You just admitted in your second response that you do, so I guess I’m correct. Who’s the attack dog here? I just posed the question based on previous comments, which I mentioned, which you ignored. You don’t know me either. So you’re a scientist. Congrats. You’re not a meteorologist and i can tell you’re far from it. Agreed a scientist doesn’t just accept things. I think non scientists know that too. My comments about not liking Gary goes back years. Not from the type of questions you pose, but the manner in how you pose them. You’ve made some not so nice snarky comments. I think your matter of fact know it all answers wreak of arrogance. “Pay attention son”? Arrogance at its best. That’s the impression I’ve always gotten from you. Guess what? I’m not alone in that feeling. By the way, you’re “facts” about hurricanes above were proven wrong in the blog after this one. I have a question for you Seds……what kind of scientist spews a bunch of information as fact without verifying it is factual? A very BAD one in my book. Hopefully, you’re not a scientist working on a product that could affect my health. Bottom line is I asked a very easy question and it is YOU that went on the attack. Well, right back at you, DAD!!!

  27. sedsinkc January 10, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    For you snow lovers, about the only chance to salvage this snow season would require the western ridge to retrograde from its usual position this season onshore, with its new future center line offshore the West Coast, thus putting the axis of the long wave trough west of Kansas City for a period of weeks. Then vort maxes could rotate through the long wave trough and become negatively tilted as they swing around the trough toward us. Then we need those storms to take the favored snow track to our southeast and then maybe we could get a real snowstorm here. I doubt it will happen, but remember 2013 and that seismic shift that saw a season of very little snow suddenly transformed into a snow bonanza. That’s about all the hope we have. Otherwise, it’s table scraps as weak systems come at us in northwest flow and mostly stay NE of us.

    • JasonAtt January 10, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

      Uses a straw man min and max outlier to discredit the LRC then uses the idea behind the LRC to say that KC won’t get snow. I’m so confused. These last couple of statements seam full of logical fallacies.

      • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 7:34 am - Reply

        Jason you must be a crummy attorney. I posed a hypothetical about his hypothesis in comment 1 using valid data points using comments Gary has used in the past to defend his hypothesis. In comment 2, I discussed weather pattern tendencies. I did not mention the LRC, nor cyclicity in any way. Stick to law and stop trying to use your defective logic to make a meteorological argument.

  28. Weatherman January 10, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

    Dryslot on 12z nam looked pretty impressive. I’m going with a small bit of rain with a quick change over to a dusting. Not buying that southern push by the GFS this close to the event. Should be another non-event for KC.

    • Paul January 10, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Time will tell…

  29. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    I wouldnt doubt that wxman but kets see what 12z Euro does first

  30. stl78 January 10, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

    Lets not kets…sorry, fat thumbs

  31. Craig January 10, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    On the bright side, we might get a few rumbles of thunder tonight. Spring is coming!
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

  32. Eric January 10, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    how are the new models looking? Is anything headed more south!!??

  33. Steve January 10, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    NWS Wichita and Topeka both ignoring the last two snow accumulation runs of the GFS and NAM. Huge difference between them and the models. 2-6” for Salina. 10” for Manhattan.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=TWX
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=TWX

  34. f00dl3 January 10, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    Follow short range guidance when we’re within 36 hrs?

    • stl78 January 10, 2018 at 1:59 pm - Reply

      Il begin using rap and hrrr after 18z runs

  35. Kurt January 10, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    get out and enjoy what’s left of the January thaw part 1 is all I can say. Animals are much happier and birds sing more with warm weather.

  36. Randy Keller January 10, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

    Good Luck at the Seminar Gary! Knock it out of the park! No doubt you will.

    GO SOONERS

  37. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) January 10, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

    any update STL78 on euro?

  38. Terry January 10, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    A Winter weather Advisory Is out for the Kansas City metro area from 8am to 3pm thurday.

    • Gary January 10, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

      I just started a new blog! The trend is our friend bloggers.

      Gary

  39. DPW January 10, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

    Could this be an LLT (Lezak leaves town) event???

    • Richard January 10, 2018 at 6:13 pm - Reply

      I think Gary is back now. His presentation was this morning.

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