Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

/Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

As discussed in yesterday’s blog, Kansas City is far from alone on getting missed over and over again. The frustrations mount when a storm approaches and is so close, and then it leaves us in the dust.  That is what will most likely happen on Thursday. Take a look:

1

This is the NAM model surface forecast valid at 6 AM Thursday. I will be back in KC Thursday experience another miss.  And, look how close it is to KC, to Maryville, MO.  Maryville, MO may be miles from missing this one.  A strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms as the surface low passes by to the northwest early Thursday morning around 3 AM, but by 6 AM you can see the low in northeastern Iowa.  There is a warm sector to this storm over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  In the spring months this setup will likely produce a significant severe weather outbreak.  It can happen during the winter as well if more warm and moist air was available, and this may be the case by Friday as you can see below with the fully formed cyclone:

2

The area of snow coming in from the northwest will be monitored closely, but KC is placed perfectly to most likely get missed again. It is difficult to have to always try to explain misses, but we don’t have a choice do we?  For areas out east, my goodness, it is another exciting storm.

Snowfall Forecast From This Morning’s NAM Model:

3

Remember, Dodge City and Amarillo are still sitting at no snow for the season. The far back edge of this system may clip Dodge City, but it appears, Amarillo will get missed once again.  Have a great day. I am presenting tomorrow morning (Wednesday morning) at the conference. Thank you for your great comments on why this blog is successful. I am using a few of them in my presentation.  Have a great day. The blog will be rather late tomorrow, so please be patient.

Take a look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.42.59 AM

Look at the system off of the Florida west coast over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is what is left of the system that brought KC rain on Sunday.  It is now over the Gulf of Mexico.  Now, look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.45.53 AM

This is day 1 or day 2 of this years LRC. LRC Cycle 1, day 1!  Hurricane Nate was forming in the Gulf of Mexico.  Remember, Weather2020 actually predicted Hurricane Harvey 55 days before it formed right here in the blog.  How? This is how!  There is a very good chance of a hurricane around September 1st right near this location.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  We are continuing our great discussion about everything weather and more on the Weather2020 blog, so go click on that here to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

2018-01-11T09:17:31+00:00 January 9th, 2018|General|90 Comments

90 Comments

  1. Roger January 9, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    That low could be another reason why we will get missed come spring and later. It will affect how much (or little) gulf moisture comes this far north and west into Kansas.

  2. Terry January 9, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

    In Nam we don’t trust. So when do we start believing in the Ban and Not the GFS?

    • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

      What’s the BAN?

    • Terry January 9, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

      sorry in Nam

      • Richard January 9, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

        Terry
        No need to apologize. We know what you meant. So did Heat miser.
        Terry, I am curious, do you use voice prompts on your computer ? Sorry if that is too personal.
        But I feel we all know you and we root for you. I hope we get a big snow !

        • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

          No Richard, I actually had no idea what he meant. You might want to keep comments like that to yourself…they are rude. Thanks for the clarification terry.

          • Richard January 9, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

            Wasn’t meant to be rude Heat.
            I apologize to you and Terry

            • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

              HEAT FORGIVE RICHARD!!!! 😉

              • Richard January 9, 2018 at 6:34 pm

                THANKS ROBERT !!!! 😉

          • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

            Touchy, touchy, I thought the same thing….

  3. stl78 January 9, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    Im right on the edge of this thing. Too tough to call. It could b a cold rain with some light accumulation on the back side or a slight wobble and im lookin at 6 +. Regardless, i welcome the warmth today and whatever moisture mother nature wants to throw at us.

    • Troy January 9, 2018 at 12:03 pm - Reply

      I think that the 21″ forecast has little chance of working out now unless we get a major snowstorm at some point. I wonder if you will even hit 21″ up there with the way this weather has been behaving?

    • Troy Newman January 9, 2018 at 12:50 pm - Reply

      It looks like you are in a snow drought as well. My inlaws live South of St Cloud and they have only had about 1/4 of there normal snow so far.

    • KS Jones January 9, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

      Enjoy the warm weather while you can.
      The forecast from the NWS says our high temperature will be 59° tomorrow, but temperatures crash on Thursday, and the high is supposed to be only 15° on Saturday. They’re showing we’ll have at least 5 days of single digit low (and one zero) temperatures after the crash.
      The NWS still shows a 70% chance of snow and blowing snow on Wednesday night and Thursday, but they make several changes to their predictions each day.

  4. Richard January 9, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary

    Can we please get a down arrow. Yesterdays 127 comments almost painful to scroll.
    Not as painful as storms missing us, but still painful.

  5. Fred January 9, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

    Boring.

  6. stl78 January 9, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

    Might b better off emailing him that question richard. Difficult to get a response here. Nice to have u back sir!

    • Richard January 9, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

      Thx stl
      I like the interaction here.
      I still go to the JL blog though. I like his stat charts and looping radar maps. He uses those a lot. And he puts out a very detailed but easy to understand blog.
      I get that Gary focuses on the lrc because that is his baby and what this blog is all about.
      But I feel JL puts out more details about immediate forecasting.

  7. LYITC41 January 9, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

    Very little snow on Thursday! Love that for sure.

    • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

      Naw, its a real bummer.

      • Tdogg January 9, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

        Have your mommy and daddy drive you to Omaha. Check out the zoo while you’re there.

        • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

          Tdogg,

          Funny thing about all your sarcastic comments referencing Heat and Terry being kids, they are juvenile, immature and sound like they are coming from a kid so constantly calling Heat and/ or Terry out is laughable. Grow up and stop being an internet tough guy hiding behind a fake name and keyboard. This blog is educational and fun without the likes of you using it for your own personal enjoyment. Oh and one more thing, there is no such thing as anonymity in the cyber world, you may want to remember that when throwing jabs at people you know nothing about.

        • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

          LoL…just can’t help yourself can you Tdogg?

          • Bluetooth January 9, 2018 at 7:58 pm - Reply

            Heat, youare always at war with someone….

  8. Three7s January 9, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

    What’s amazing about this storm is that it’s one of the few that was able to break or maneuver around “the ridge” out west, which should be obvious with the precip that shows forming out west. It just takes that La NIna-like track to the north and does next to no digging. This is why our historical average in weak La Nina years is usually very low in snow totals.

    • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

      Terry,

      There is still reason to hold out hope. I personally believe we will see some snow from this storm, not sure how much. Remember the Christmas Eve storm that most lost hope in? We know how that turned out. Models finally caught on about a day before the event. It wasn’t much, but was sure pretty to watch. Hopefully, we will get lucky and experience the same thing again! Make it your birthday wish 😀

  9. Snowflake January 9, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Last summer, you mentioned on this blog that you’d be presenting your peer-reviewed paper on the LRC during this conference in Austin – can you link to it so your readers here can read it too?

  10. Kurt January 9, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    Terry were you excited about the 12Z run? That shows at most a few tenths of an inch of snow from several systems throughout the entire period. Yes, there are storms there, but none that on recent model runs are very impactful and no one single system or storm brings the one inch on the plaza to end the snowflake contest. I was just curious if you thought we were actually going to be getting a decent snow, because everyone of these on this model splits or our immediate area isn’t targeted by a direct impact from these storms.

    It continues to be a struggle to produce anything meaningful here.

    • Terry January 9, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

      watch they will change for the good.

  11. Richard January 9, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    Pretty unbelievable so far. Not one inch at kshb yet.

    Numbers guy,
    I wonder what are the stats on winter total snowfall here, when there has been so little snow up to todays date.

    • numb3rsguy January 9, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

      I will start with the snowflake contest! Technically at the official recording site for KC, we received our first inch of snow on 12/18. with the snowflake contest location getting either 0.8″ or 0.9″ on that date. The long term average for the first inch of snow is 12/13, so really we were close to average on the timing, however, the average snowfall to date is 7.5″, and we are sitting at 2.2″ for the season. If we pretend that the snowflake measuring site on the plaza is the official for KC (instead of KCI), and assume we got 1″ of snow today, we would be tied for the 21st latest first inch of snowfall. There are 12 more occurrences later in January, 7 in February, and 1 in March (3/6/1931) for our first inch of snow in a calendar day. So we are a ways of a record (and technically have already ended the streak on 12/18/17.

      Now as far as snowfall goes in the years that have had less snow up to today’s date, at 2.2″, we are currently tied for the 23rd least snow (excluding two years for incomplete data). Of the 22 years with less snow up to today’s date, 8 of them ended up with less than 10″ of snow, 8 of them ended up with between 10 and 15 inches, 5 of them ended up with between 20 and 30″ of snow, and 1, 1959/60 ended up with 58.5″ of snow (our second highest ever). Interestingly, none of the years got between 15 and 20″. So statistically, we have a 36% of ending up with less than 10″ of snow (which we’ve never done 3 years in a row), and a 73% chance of ending up with less than 15″ of snow. Rounding off, we have a 75% chance of being below average, and a 25% chance of meeting Gary’s forecast of 21.5″ or above. Important to note, these data are based on statistics and not on the LRC, so the actual chances are different than what the data show. The average of the 22 years in 15.4″. Overall, unless we have a freak year like in 1959/60, we are likely to be below average once again, and based on our recent storm track, WAY below average. Although, those 6 years we ended up getting over 20″, something must have changed. But what was it?

      -numb3rsguy

      • Richard January 9, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

        numbers
        Thanks ! Very impressed with your ability to come up with those stats ! Outstanding.

        Lol ! That 59-60 winter I remember it well ! Went with my dad and friends a couple of times to suicide hill in kcmo sledding.
        What a winter it turned out to be. I had forgotten how we kept hoping for snow that year. You brought it all back to me.

        There is hope Terry !!

        It’s just that we rarely see big winter snows around here. But we can always hope !

      • Troy Newman January 9, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

        I wonder if those years with more than 20″ that you mentioned were wet before today’s date and it was coming as rain or if they were dry and turned wet?

  12. Fred Nolan January 9, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

    For only having 15 comments this blog was incredibly slow to load today.

  13. sedsinkc January 9, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Got Sept. 1 circled on my calendar, Gary. Interesting how you are equating placement of a 500mb cold core low in the eastern GOM today to a hurricane being there near the peak of hurricane season, since tropical cyclones need quiet, anticyclonic conditions at 500 mb to grow and thrive. Proximity to upper lows tends to shear tropical cyclones apart. Also, having a hurricane in the GOM on Sept. 1 is not a huge stretch. Under your scenario, with a ULL in the GOM, I would expect a hurricane if there was one to be near the Bahamas heading north, not in the Gulf of Mexico. Looking forward to September 1!

    • Snowflake January 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

      September 10 is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. To ‘forecast’ a gulf hurricane for September 1 is not a particularly brave forecast.

      • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

        Snowflake,

        Are you being serious? To forecast a storm for any specific date is incredibly difficult to do with accuracy so predicting a hurricane on or about September 1 for a specific area is pretty amazing if it comes to fruition. Consider the low number of hurricanes that actually make landfall and in some years, hardly any. With that said, if we have only 3 hurricanes hit in 2018 and one of them is September 1 in the Gulf, would that not be a pretty spectacular forecast? Not trying to be critical so please don’t take it that way, I am simply attempting to understand your logic.

        • RobertCali January 9, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

          “landfalling” hurricanes and hurricanes existing in the gulf are two different things. You’re right that there haven’t been many to make landfall, but we all know that if that was the LRC forecast, then any tropical system to exist in the gulf or even near (for instance, along the east coast of florida) would be chalked up as a ‘win’ for the LRC.

          I think what Snowflake is saying is that the odds of a tropical system in that region of the world around September 1 is relatively high, so making a forecast for that — LRC or no LRC — is not that gutsy.

          • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 8:58 pm - Reply

            Robert,

            One example to disprove your opinion as stated above. From September 2013 to September 2016, how many hurricanes did the Gulf experience? I will answer it for you, NOT ONE. Almost 3 years, zero hurricanes. So if, as you and Snowflake say, predicting a hurricane September 1st in the Gulf is a given, not gutsy or basic forecasting, how do you account for the above data? The fact is, there are no such thing as “givens” regarding forecasting the weather or storms. Are there statistical probabilities? yes. Scientifically speaking, attempting to cast a specific forecast for a specific date as simple, is illogical and without merit. Think about that, based on what you and Snowflake stated, there are hurricanes every year in the Gulf and it is simply not true. Now, as stated above, I am not trying to be critical nor am I trying to be mean, I sincerely hope you both are able to digest the above stated facts and learn something as that is why we are all hear. Making a hurricane prediction for a certain date in a specific geographical region 6 months or more in advance, is absolutely amazing and brilliant if it comes to fruition, not to mention the ability to do so could save lives as well as property by advanced preparation.

            • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply

              One more fact, from 1851 to 2015, The average number of hurricanes to form in US waters during the month of September is 2.4 ( two point four) that is less than 3 hurricanes annually in the month of September. This completely nullifies the above stated arguments that predicting a hurricane during a specific time period and geography is far from routine. Perception is not reality folks

              Source: NOAA Hurricane research Division Subject: TCFAQ E17)

            • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

              Here…not hear, LOL

  14. Ravi Kondapalli January 9, 2018 at 11:31 am - Reply

    I will take the misses. I hate seeing the little mixed precip which always seems to wreak havoc on the roads. Looking for a classic 3-5 inch snow storm in temperatures close to freezing. It will be a visual treat but will not impact driving around

  15. Matt January 9, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Serious question…
    When was the last time KC had a stretch of boring winters like we have had lately?

    Non-Serious Question…
    The last several “Winter Forecasts” have been about as reliable as the Chiefs in the playoffs…at least in regards to snow fall predictions…how do you get past the frustrations of this…or does it not bother you at all?

  16. Eric January 9, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

    So no chance for that storm to move more down south and hit KC? I’m sure crazier things have happened? I know I know I’m just trying to hold onto any hope and excitement lol

    • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

      Eric,

      Yes, always a chance it shifts South. We have many storms a year where the models do not pick up on a shift until the day prior or day of the system so there is always hope

  17. Farmgirl January 9, 2018 at 1:05 pm - Reply

    I don’t think we are going to make it to 50 down south. Forecast was for 50 degrees and we are sitting at 36 and cloudy. 🙁

  18. Randy Keller January 9, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    3-6 inches for my house forecasted. west of lincoln ne

    GO SOONERS!

  19. Brad January 9, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    Ellis, Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Lane, Ness, Scott, and Trego

    The national weather service in dodge city has issued a Winter weather advisory which is in effect from midnight wednesday night to 8am thursday

    Timing- snow will begin in far western kansas by midnight Wednesday and then spread eastward. Snow will taper off by 8am in the hays area

    Snow amounts- widespread snow accumulations of an inch with localized higher amounts around 2 inches possible

    Winds- north winds will increase to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph by midnight. These high winds will cause blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibilities to less the a quarter mile at times

    Main impact- strong winds up to 50 mph and blowing snow can be expected to impact travel

    Other impacts- slick spots will likely develop on highways

  20. Matt January 9, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    Maybe you guys can answer my questions.

    What do we need to happen in order to start getting some action here in KC?

    I know before it was getting through the rid over California, then needed a few storms to “break the ice.” I feel like all that is (more or less) coming into play, but we’re still sitting with nothing.

    Obviously this is still fairly early in the winter season, but when do we say, “Okay, it’s not going to snow, AGAIN.” Not to start going down a negative path, I am just curious if we still have hope for a “normal” winter, or if we are pretty much guaranteed to continue down this road.

    Thanks guys. Sorry if everything i said has already been asked/discussed. I trying to always read the blog, but not the comments too often.

    • Gary January 9, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

      Bloggers, this comment just came in from one of our long time bloggers,

      “Gary- I posted the following back on November 13th about the first round of the LRC. My concern was how storms would barely do much in KC area and then intensify once it past KC. It appears the LRC is spot on for the cycling pattern but I am failing to understand why the struggle with forecasting for KC when the pattern has set up and repeated with same result. I know there is some wishcasting that occurs because of the excitement of a storm, but I think if following the LRC and other tools, you would be better off on forecasts for KC rather than what you would like to see happen. Just an opinion and not blasting you. I have been a longtime follower of your weather forecasts and the LRC, just an observation.

      “When looking at the pattern setting up, currently it appears we will be slightly below average in temps for the winter. I am struggling with a precipitation forecast, I feel like we are going to be in this zone in between above average and below average precipitation. Areas to the east and northeast in that above average zone and Kansas in the below average zone. A shift either way could really change our precip amounts. I have not been impressed with the precipitation for the first round of this cycle for KC. I do think that the I-44 corridor could be in trouble with ice as they will be in the zone that is between cold and warm air. I will say we will be above the past two years in snow but not thinking we will be above average due to how the cycle is setting up initially.””

      GREAT COMMENT, and observation, it certainly is making me think right now. It isn’t like we are wishcasting. How many times have we forecasted any accumulation of snow in KC this season? I believe two or three times, and these forecasts for around an inch of snow have verified. When we look into the forecasts farther out, ten days and longer, I get this point. But, it isn’t like we are wishcasting. The potential is there, even though, and I have stated it many times, we know we are likely to be missed. We are just in an epic long period of non-exciting winter weather in KC. It shouldn’t be this bad, but it is. We are now going through, not our second, not our third, but our fourth winter in a row with no major snow storms. I haven’t added it up lately and if someone (Numbers guy/gal) wants to do it please do, otherwise i will soon. But, I think it is like the past 29 snowfall events have added up to like 28 total inches of snow over four winters. That is ridiculous. I was at the Bob Ryan Symposium yesterday and he and his colleagues were talking about all of the major snowstorms in the east they have had over the years. They just don’t realize how difficult it is back in KC.

      Anyway, we just have to see if anything will come together. It is a bit ridiculous. New data is coming out now.

      Gary

      • Richard January 9, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Who was that blogger. is it here on the blog ?

  21. Troy Newman January 9, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    If anyone wants to look up past history an easy place to find information is the High Plains Climate Center. You can look up a lot of different parameters and they use cooperative observer data so there are a lot of locations to choose from. Some have incomplete data sets but most of the major reporting stations (places like Superior, NE or Concordia, KS included) have good data back 100 years or more.

  22. REAL HUMEDUDE January 9, 2018 at 3:34 pm - Reply

    I bet Boston has had closer to 200″ of snow over past 4 winters, while KC is at 29″. How is this even possible? Never mind, if Andy Reid can blow a 18 point 2nd half lead then anything is possible

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 9, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

      I was way off, clearly not numbersguy!

      Boston had had over 270″ + in past 4 years
      That’s 22.5 FEET of snow over past 4 years, move there if you like snow
      I wouldnt move there if you paid me!

    • Joe January 9, 2018 at 3:52 pm - Reply

      In New England and Mid Atlantic states, the Nor’easter is a snow lover’s dream. Growing up west of DC we always had at least one storm that produced 12+ inches of snow every year and occasionally would get one with 20+ inches.

      Moving to KC has pretty much sucked from a snow perspective

  23. Urbanity January 9, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

    Whoa, GFS and NAM now showing LOW much further south, if that holds we could be in for some SNOW!!

  24. Wes January 9, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

    Gary, will your presentation on the LRC theory tomorrow be available online?

  25. Brian watson January 9, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

    Lrc forecast rarely verify. I’ve seen countless forecasts over the last 6 years or so based on the lrc and very rarely could an objective person say they verified. A good portion of the time they are so far off that it’s hard to even make an arguement for it. There are some times when the temperature or precipitation will verify, but very rarely both. Finding a storm system near the area around Thursday doesn’t make it verify. Every single week there is some storm system coming through the plains. If it doesn’t come on the day you planned it seems you just adjust the days of the cycle. I mean it’s getting to be a little much.

    • sedsinkc January 9, 2018 at 4:57 pm - Reply

      Spot on comment, Brian watson. Gary is always massaging his cycle length to make events “fit the pattern.” What’s the supposed recognized interval for this year’s cycle, something like 43 to 51 days? It’s laughable. I’m also wondering why Gary’s talk is on the last day of the convention when folks are leaving town if it’s about the science of the LRC and not an advert for his business? The supposed cutting-edge science of the CPH as it is scientifically known should be a headliner of the convention, featured on Day 1.

      • Bobbie January 9, 2018 at 8:05 pm - Reply

        The wide range of days does definitely leave room for criticism.

      • RobertCali January 9, 2018 at 8:22 pm - Reply

        Seds–Snowflake mentioned above that earlier this year, Gary said he was presenting a “peer-reviewed paper” about his theory during this conference in Austin. Is that not the case any longer?

        • sedsinkc January 11, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

          My understanding is Gary presented a talk in Austin on how to grow a weather blog, using the LRC-based blog of his as an example. It was not a peer-reviewed paper. I know someone whose uncle works for Gary’s company and Gary is supposedly working on a peer review paper for submission to a journal for publication.

    • Richard January 9, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

      The lrc is not for fine-tune, 5 or 7 day forecasting. Yet.
      It is not a model. Yet.

      My understanding is that it is for showing repeating patterns of waves, troughs, etc.

      • Wes January 9, 2018 at 5:40 pm - Reply

        Agreed, Richard. In my opinion, the LRC is about identifying when certain upper-level features will come into play. It is excellent in doing this. You can compare what the models are suggesting to what the LRC suggests to see if the models are on the right track. The theory has been MUCH more accurate here in Texas than long-range forecasts by NOAA. The state has been colder than normal for the last month. The LRC suggested just that, and NOAA did not. The state has also seen more wintry precip than the last two seasons combined. Again, most had predicted another dry, WARM winter for us. It has been dry, but when we do see the moisture, it is often in the form of overrunning events. I saw this trend back in October. Just because your backyard is one of a few to have missed out on the wintry stuff (so far), does not mean that the LRC is not functioning or accurate. My gut feeling is that some late season Winter Storms will happen in the Central Plains this year. Again, just give it time. We are only a little over a third of the way through the meteorological winter and less than a month into the calendar winter. Gary writes these discussions as a courtesy for those who are interested in learning and tracking the LRC, not because he has to.

        • Richard January 9, 2018 at 6:19 pm - Reply

          Agreed

        • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

          Wes,

          Good post. It has been my experience that you simply cannot make or help people to see something they don’t want to and in this case, the accuracy behind the LRC. In order to understand the complexities behind the cycling pattern, one has to have a scientific background or a very open mind and willingness to spend the necessary time studying the cycles, pattern and individual results. Many on here only perform a surface analysis thus, the belief the LRC is inaccurate. I have put the LRC under trial using a test group of my friends and family the past few years. They all stated it is impossible to forecast the weather more than a week out at the beginning. The LRC changed their opinions as they were proved wrong. We followed temperatures, systems and precipitation. Evaluated accuracies/inaccuracies and if a system missed, how far off. In almost every miss, the system was there and within our region. It is my opinion that knowledge of how to use and interpret the LRC continues to evolve and with it, a continued increase in accuracy will be observed. The last few years have seemed to present some unique challenges regarding interpreting the LRC data. I am confident Gary will be able to apply what he has and will learn going forward. With that said, the LRC is in fact accurate 60-70% of the time if evaluated objectively.

    • RobertCali January 9, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

      BW hit the nail on the head.

      • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

        Wow, he may have hit the nail on the head for those that believe perception is reality and ignore the facts, but I guess all are entitled to their own opinion, facts be damned, Hurricane prediction discussion above as evidence

  26. Richard January 9, 2018 at 6:31 pm - Reply

    Man oh man. Jeff showed a HIGH of 13 next Tuesday.

    Why don’t we hear the term polar vortex with these blasts this year. It is polar air, right ?
    Haven’t heard that since 4 yrs ago

    • Heat Miser January 9, 2018 at 6:52 pm - Reply

      I’ve head a few tv meterologists call it that this year

      • Richard January 9, 2018 at 7:10 pm - Reply

        Local mets ? Who

  27. Carl January 9, 2018 at 7:08 pm - Reply

    They’re calling for snow in Columbia on Thursday. And it sure looks like we will get some precipitation. What are the chances the storm shifts south?

  28. Emaw January 9, 2018 at 7:42 pm - Reply

    I think the preferred term in media these days is “Arctic Blast” it has more punch, sounds more threatening . . .

  29. Rod January 9, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    Does a storm around January 21st fit the LRC based on current cycle length? Just curious if a storm is due around this time or is this just another model run with errors. Saw this on a few previous runs & noticed it again today. Thanks

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2018010918&fh=276&r=conus&dpdt=

    • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

      Rod,

      Yes, I believe it is the Oct 21-23rd, gave us 2.93″ , came through dry( only a trace)on Dec 6th and lines up for Jan 21st. if every other cycle mirrors itself, the current GFS could be fairly accurate on strength. Time will tell

  30. Rod January 9, 2018 at 10:06 pm - Reply

    Thanks JoeK, lets hope, I checked my CoCoRaHs rainfall report & between Oct 21-23rd I logged 0.60” of rain & on the Sunday before Oct 15th picked up 1.63” of rain. Let’s hope in cycle 3 these produce with the same or greater intensity & tap into some cold air & gulf moisture.

    • JoeK January 9, 2018 at 10:16 pm - Reply

      Rod,

      Not sure of your location, the 2.93″ was recorded at KCI. I do believe we stand a good chance at one of these systems breaking through and producing. I also feel that this weeks system may give us a surprise and over perform?

  31. Rod January 9, 2018 at 10:50 pm - Reply

    JoeK I’m located just south of Columbia in Ashland, MO. Hoping with being just a little further east I pick up on some better snow chances in cycle 3. Have only picked up one snow of around an 1”, so feeling the same frustrations as those in the KC area.

  32. Nicholas January 9, 2018 at 11:29 pm - Reply

    So tropical tidbits has a new model on it the “ICON” model when we finally get an exciting pattern it is going to be fun to have all these new models to look at 🙂

  33. Freezemiser January 10, 2018 at 4:22 am - Reply

    The NWS is painting a different picture for Thursday and Friday. I bet we get something out of the sky that is frozen.

  34. f00dl3 January 10, 2018 at 7:21 am - Reply

    Hey – guess what???!

    The storm that was TEN DAYS AWAY is now GONE! Poof!

    LRC – weather pattern keeps repeating. Over. and Over. And over. And Over. and over.

    AND OVER!

    Get used to it!

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