Good morning bloggers,
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: A few periods of clouds, otherwise sunny. A cold surge arrives from the northeast, but this just holds in the cold. Today is the 14th day in a row below 32 degrees. High: 24°
- Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. Low: 10°
- Saturday Tailgating at Arrowhead: A few morning clouds with some sun coming out. Temperatures warming through the teens into the 20s with a wind shift to the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills near 10 degrees, so bundle up.
- Saturday Afternoon & Evening: The sun comes out as the sun sets over Arrowhead, hopefully with the Chiefs winning. High: 28°, the warmest temperature of the year so far. It will be dry with a breeze.
- Sunday: A good chance of rain. There is a chance of some freezing rain with temperatures very close to 32 degrees. One or two degrees, and the amount of precipitation are critical to whether there will be any problems with icing. There is even a chance of a change to snow or a mix of snow or sleet. High: 33°
Thank you so much for so many well thought out messages on why this blog is successful. I will be using a few of them in my presentation next week. I leave for Austin on Monday and return late Wednesday afternoon. I am presenting on Wednesday morning and in this presentation I will be sharing my Star Wars Calendar from 1978.
Take a look at this entry from January 9th-10th 1978, 40 years ago. Can you even imagine? The weather pattern in these first two years of me keeping a weather calendar were about as exciting as any in my entire life. Storm systems were blasting the southwestern United states. As you can see on these two entries, “A Very Large storm is dropping rain, very heavily constantly raining. 2-5 inches of rain are expected. The next day we had severe thunderstorms across the San Fernando Valley. Are you kidding me? The very next year, in the 1978 weather calendar, it was just as exciting. We are so far from any weather like this, unless you live in the deep south, east, or in the Lake-Effect band region.
Here is that Star Wars Calendar:
Look closely. You can see a long range forecast. Underneath the month title of January, I have a forecast I wrote for the month. I was making long range forecasts in 1978 before I knew that the weather pattern was cycling. This is part of my presentation on “How to have a successful blog: sharing the Art & Science of weather”.
Cycle 3 of this year’s weather pattern begins this weekend into early next week. This years cycle is around 47-days. What happened 47 days ago? I was in New York City to see the Chiefs play the Giants. The game was horribly boring and the Chiefs lost. When I arrived in NYC it rained, there were winds up to 50 mph with injuries from a scaffolding that fell onto a street, and then on my way out it snowed. I was at La Guardia airport on the 20th leaving and NYC had their first snowflakes of the season. 47 days ago! It is not a coincidence, as many of you realize. This recent snowstorm is directly related to what I personally experienced on my visit.
So, now I am leaving for this presentation in Austin, TX Monday. There is this thing you all named, the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index). Well, maybe it’s going to work, but we know a lot more now a days. The storm due in around next Wednesday-Friday is the one we have expected to produce near KC, but let’s be realistic. This part of the pattern has now hit, and also missed KC. It has produced in the region, but KC itself is 1 for 2, while the LRC itself is 2 for 2. That is a 50% accuracy on forecasting and a 100% accuracy on the LRC itself. Does this make sense to you? It is a point I have been trying to get across for years; that the LRC is almost flawless, but the forecasts based off knowledge of this cycling pattern are always much more challenging.
The map above shows last nights European Model forecast for Thursday. And, here are the totals for the next seven days:
If this is exactly right, then the snowflake contest would end and we would have 0.5″ of liquid precipitation. But, hang on, here is the problem. This still needs to evolve in such a way for it to set up to produce this output. A slight change here or there could leave many areas dry once again. I don’t want to analyze this potential any more significantly until early next week as we will be receiving many more solutions from the computer model.
Before we get to this storm, we have a lead system approaching us on Saturday night and Sunday. Let’s see how this sets up too. We need to break the ice. It has been so dry, and these are two decent chances to get measurable rain or snow. Remember, Amarillo, Texas is zero for this years LRC. They have the big goose egg, the big zero, no rain or snow at all for 90 days.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020, click on the blog, and join in the conversation or read the comments as we discuss this developing week of interesting weather. Hopefully it won’t leave us frustrated again. I would place the chance of being frustrated at 50%. Ouch. Have a great day!