Using The LRC To Predict Next Weeks Storm Systems

/Using The LRC To Predict Next Weeks Storm Systems

Using The LRC To Predict Next Weeks Storm Systems

Good morning bloggers,

A Major Winter Storm is developing and about to impact much of the eastern seaboard.  While this is happening, farther west it has been an extremely dry fall and winter season thus far as discussed in yesterdays blog. We will begin this blog entry with todays developing storm, and then we will discuss how this fits the LRC perfectly, and how next weeks storm systems also fit. We will then make a prediction for Kansas City to have the potential of a major winter storm in less than ten days.

RadarLet’s begin with how last nights band of snow turned out.  The big eastern storm actually began forming last night as a band of light snow showers was heading towards Kansas City.  A few snowflakes were reported over parts of the KC metro area, but look at what happened to the band once it moved over the KC metro area.  Yes, and this isn’t too hard to believe when we have already experienced around 90 days of this pattern with almost every storm not quite coming together in this region. The band of snow literally broke up over the KC metro area.  This disturbance is the one discussed in yesterday blog, the very positively tilted trough that is now becoming very negatively tilted as it heads into the eastern states.

Let’s take a look at the advisories across the United States for today:

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 6.26.01 AM

  • The purple areas over Texas and the deep south are Hard Freeze Warnings!
  • The pink areas from Georgia and northern Florida up to Boston are Winter Storm Warnings

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 6.27.45 AM

I went to Hilton Head Island in October for the first time. I would love to be there today. Savannah, GA is about to have a 1 to 4 inch snow storm that may also produce just as much at Hilton Head.  The largest snowstorm in Savannah, GA history has been 3.6″.  This storm will be fun to track to today as it impacts many eastern cites.

The LRC & The Next Two Storm Systems

  • According the Cycling Pattern Hypotheses (Named The LRC by the Action Weather Bloggers in 2003) a unique weather pattern sets up from October 1st to November 30th.
  •  Quasi-Permanent anchor troughs and ridges become established. These are where storm systems reach their peak strength, near the anchor troughs, and where storm systems reach their weakest strengths near the anchor ridges
  • The pattern is cycling, and a new cycle length also evolves in the fall. By early January we confirm the cycle length, and this continues through the rest of winter, spring and through the summer until a new and unique pattern sets up the next fall

This year’s pattern is cycling in the 44 to 51 day range, as we have showcased many times already this season. This is centered on the important number near 47 days. Take a look at this very important comparison for next week:

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 6.52.05 AM

What are we looking at here?  The LRC had just set up in early October, likely beginning around October 7th. This first storm developing Saturday night and Sunday is directly related to the October 7th storm, and the more important second storm system is directly related to the October 10th and November 28th storm systems. January 12th is exactly 47 times 2 or 94 days after October 10th, and 45 days after November 28th.  The bottom map is just a day 10 forecast from the GFS model, but the patterns look rather remarkably similar, and they should as this storm is right on schedule.

This part of the pattern in the first two cycles:

  • In cycle 1 Kansas City had 0.07″ on October 10th and 1.23″ on October 14th for a total of 1.30″ in this first cycle. Joplin, MO had 1.18″
  • In cycle 2 Kansas City got missed and was left dry. The storm was very small scale and did produce three days of light rain in Joplin, MO for only 0.06″

There is one big seasonal difference for this cycle 3 version of this storm. There is cold air available.  Now, will the storm be functional. Take a look at the latest GFS and European Model outputs for snow:

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 7.10.11 AM

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 7.09.30 AM

Bloggers, I know it seems like a fantasy storm, but it fits the LRC. Of course it may not quite come together, but I have confidence that it will.  There is a pretty good chance that this system will “break the ice” and finally end the snowflake contest. But, considering what we have gone through so far this winter season, I would say confidence is still quite shaky.

There is also the intermediate storm system, the one in between the huge eastern storm and the likely KC winter storm.  Let’s see how that sets up for Sunday on the new data. Warmer air will be drawn in, but cold air will not be that far away for Sunday’s storm.

We have maximized the 0.9″ to 2.2″ that has fallen around the KC metro area. Sunny The Weather Dog shows us that there are still patches of snow around due to the lack of melting in this cold wave we are still being affected by today. Another cold surge is arriving this morning.  The 0.9″ accumulated on the Country Club Plaza in front of our 41 Action News studios from a 0.8″ storm and a 0.1″ storm, while KCI Airport had two 1.1″ storms. Overland Park, KS has had 1.3 and .4″ for a total of 1.7″ thus far.

Let’s track this eastern storm system. Boston may have the biggest impact, but these souther cities are not used to weather like this and the impacts may be quite significant in a few of these locations. Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog and join in the great conversation.  Have a great Wednesday. And, Happy New Year!


2018-01-04T07:32:11+00:00 January 3rd, 2018|General|78 Comments


  1. Snow Miser January 3, 2018 at 7:39 am - Reply

    It’s snowing in northern Florida right now.

    I didn’t even know we were supposed to get any snow in the area last night. Weather has been so boring I’m not even paying much attention lately.

  2. Three7s January 3, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    The GFS had been showing nothing or rain with just about every run until the 6z. This isn’t a fantasy storm, but whether or not it’s rain, snow, or nothing is still up for debate.

  3. BSMike January 3, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    I say fantasy until proven wrong. Nothing but disappointment so far. Not falling for it!!!

  4. Steve January 3, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Snow is like a box of chocolates. You don’t know what your going to get next!

  5. smizell January 3, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Gary, you’re killing me!!!! I am a snow lover, like many others on here. It’s like a bi polar blog, one day we say how horrible the pattern is, and then the next we talk about a snow lovers dream. I really hope this next cycle produces some snow days for us teachers and our kids. What are the potential days for snow/rain in cycle 3?

    • Gary January 3, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

      OMG, I’m killing you? This weather pattern is hard on all of us. Here is the deal. Kansas City just rarely goes the entire winter without a storm coming together. We have now gone through three full + winters where not one storm has really come together. So, let’s be realistic here. I am forecasting our best chance yet near the end of next week because it fits the LRC so well. It is one of the storm systems we used in the winter forecast to help make my snowfall prediction. But, it did not produce in the last cycle. So, that gives it a one out of two chance of producing in this third LRC cycle. That is still a 50% chance. Remember now, this is a 50% chance of a snow storm around February 12th without any other guidance. The GFS and Euro have now shown snow storms near KC, so this gets me a bit more excited. If it is going to happen, then we will see some consistency in the models by late this weekend. Between now and then let’s be patient.


      • Terry January 3, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

        Gary you put in your blog February 12th. Didn’t you mean to Put January the 12th ?

        • Terry January 3, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

          I mean in this comment to smizell. You said February of the 12th. Didn’t you mean to say January the 12th ? Next week ?

  6. Terry January 3, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    Maybe for my birthday will have a snow storm it’s January the 11th

  7. Anonymous January 3, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    Of course I am going to miss it all. Will be here this Thursday/weekend and in Boston next weekend. At lease there is a change for a couple of good snows while I am in Boston….

  8. jamie January 3, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    Of course I am going to miss it all! Will be here Thursday-weekend and in Boston next Thursday- weekend! Just my luck.

    • Mr. Pete January 3, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

      I don’t think that you will be missing anything.

  9. Bill in Lawrence January 3, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply


    Happy Wednesday!!

    In my very humble opinion, it will be interesting to see what happens with this weekend’s energy. As I said yesterday and earlier this morning, I think this is related to the November 18th storm which gave me close to 1/4 of an inch. The 0Z gave me close to .50 for Sunday/Monday and had a decent looking surface low that tracked about over Pleasonton, Kansas where as the 06Z had a weaker low tracking across Springfield and gave me about .15 of qpf.

    Based on cycle 1, I think the 0Z has a better handle on it than did the 06Z. On november 18th, the surface low tracked just south of KC and kind of intensified a bit as it passed. Of course, as I said in the previous blog, this is all from a history teacher who predicted 1-2 inches of snow with the arctic outbreak so for sure take this all with a huge grain of salt. 🙂

    At the end of the day, I think looking at the cycle 1 and the run of the 0z GFS, Sunday/Monday may be something to watch for some moisture…rain I would bet but at least some moisture.

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  10. Dale January 3, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Using the LRC for a prediction is what I feel makes the blog interesting. I think sometimes you (Gary) second guess yourself when you should be putting it out there. Is it 100% correct? No, but nothing is currently. I use to watch Dan Henry make predictions and stick to them. He made a lot of errors, but I admired how he told you what he thought was going to happen ahead of time and usually admitted when he was wrong (which was a large percentage of the time). We loved watching his predictions when I was a kid and the internet wasn’t around yet. I hope the storm that fits the LRC shows up as scheduled late next week.

  11. Clint January 3, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

    Hi Gary great blog this morning, Should we pay attention to that clipper on Friday seems to be working it’s way a little closer?

  12. Urbanity January 3, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    The October storm had moisture to work with (possibly left over from the previous cycle?), the second storm had nothing and the Jan 12th storm can’t possibly have any moisture to work with, can it? On Jan 12th according to the models, a southeast-east coast high pressure (weak ~1030mb) is sitting well off the mid Atlantic coast, and a cold high pressing down from the Montana. Given this setup, and with a positive tilted trough, I would think you could throw out the Euro’s forecast, and take the GFS forecast and cut the totals in half. And as far as the area’s affected that’s still anyone’s guess, if the artic push is stronger then probably north Texas could get the snow belt.

    It’s a million to one shot, but your saying there’s a chance!

  13. Snowflake January 3, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    So is the ‘big’ storm that you’re mentioning the one set for January 12? Or is it later than that? I hope the contest finally ends.

    • Gary January 3, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

      It’s that part of the pattern that will cycle through between the 10th and 15th of January. So, it better produce. We aren’t presented with too many chances this year, or in recent years.


  14. Adam January 3, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    You could literally make a forecast for a dusting – 2 inches for that January 12 storm, and be correct now.

    That permanent west coast ridge just will not allow storms to dig far enough west to draw in a significant amount of moisture. Storms just continue to come in extremely positively tilted, and dysfunctional. Certainly don’t know why we’d expect that to change now.

    • Urbanity January 3, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

      I hear you, but if Gary thinks there is hope….he is the expert.

  15. Dan T January 3, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    We are in a snow drought (hopefully about to change soon) but the southeastern US is looking at the second snow and ice storm this season. Hard to believe that Alabama, Georgia and Florida will have had more snow this season than places in the Midwest.

  16. REAL HUMEDUDE January 3, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    We need rain in Kansas for the wheat, snow would be nice but lets not get picky about our moisture. The storm on Sunday looks just like the first LRC system we got in early October, I am seeing the every other cycle mirror here almost PERFECTLY. Especially with a system coming on its heels, these are different from cycle #2 as they are cutting under the ridge and coming out of the 4 corner area which bodes well for us. If this really pans out, will there be any doubt left that every other cycle is a better harmonic to measure than assuming every cycle will line up perfectly which we clearly see they don’t every time. I have said cycle #3 was our best shot this year based only on my experience reading heady and his every other cycle notion, I know Gary gives some credence but also like he’s not on board 100% with that thought. I am a believer if these next storms do come to fruition

  17. Ben January 3, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

    I was in Houston over the weekend and they were all preparing for the hard freeze by covering up the flowers. Think they were showing a low of 23 this morning but I haven’t heard if it got that cold.

    • Snowflake January 3, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      I doubt sheets over flowers would protect against 23 degrees.

  18. Mr. Pete January 3, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    So are all the local ponds frozen over now?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 3, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

      Pete, they are frozen SOLID. You could safely Skate on Alot of them. I did some hunting over the weekend and Sunday I walked over a small stream that had a good depth of water in it, the ice was clear and clean and I bet it was 12″ thick. I jumped up and down on it without even a squeak from the ice. Now all bodies of water are different and have varying quality of ice, some may be unsafe so I suggest a very careful inspection before you mess around.

      • KS Jones January 3, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

        Now that the major rivers & streams are all frozen over, I decided to place my trail-cam facing one of our three year-round springs to capture images of the activity there. There were numerous tracks of various kinds in the snow all around the spring. Capturing images of deer, bobcats and coyotes is a given, but I’m hoping for a cougar. Many people have spotted them in this vicinity (including myself) but the Kansas Department of Wildlife wants proof and that doesn’t include mere sightings, whereas trail-cam pics are acceptable proof.
        The pools near the springs are solidly green with watercress, because the water is roughly 53° as it emerges.

        • Urbanity January 3, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

          They have proof.

        • Troy Newman January 3, 2018 at 2:53 pm - Reply

          A friend got a cougar on a trail cam on my property along the Republican 20 years ago and the KDWP saw it. Claimed it was the first one caught on tape in KS.

    • Troy Newman January 3, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

      Went ice fishing yesterday and cut 8″ of ice.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE January 3, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

        Any luck? Never had an opportunity to do that, always figured you needed a exceptional spot over some Flooded brush or somewhere guaranteed to hold numerous fish. I would pick worst spot on the lake most likely!

        • Troy Newman January 3, 2018 at 7:54 pm - Reply

          No luck. I only fished for half an hour before dark to test out some new equipment. I am going to Glen Elder Saturday and hopefully will find some. It can be really hot or totally get skunked. You have such a narrow window to fish with an 8″ hole. A vexlar or Marcum flasher really helps.

  19. Snowflake January 3, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    The January 12 event is now all rain in the 12z GFS.

    • Gary January 3, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

      And, it is all snow on the Canadian model. We know what has already happened, so we will be concerned until it is obvious one day out. If it is going to be a major winter storm, then by Sunday or Monday at the latest it should begin narrowing in on it.

      For, now, this ride has been rather rough.


      • Snowflake January 3, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

        Do you favor it being a warm storm with rain, or a cold storm with snow?

    • Heat Miser January 3, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

      Are you really still giving any real credence run by run to models nine days out about a snow/rain storm…really?

      • Three7s January 3, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

        He is because it’s verified by the LRC. If you want to bash models, there’s no point in discussing weather.

        • Three7s January 3, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

          And the reason I say this is because what really is there to discuss other than models? For once, he finally states that the LRC verifies with this storm, but who cares because models?

          • Anonymous January 3, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

            Models 9 days have have proven to be completely unreliable. Be reasonable.

            • Three7s January 3, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

              I’m pretty sure following the LRC to verify model runs, which is the whole point of this blog, is pretty reasonable.

      • Bobbie January 3, 2018 at 1:11 pm - Reply

        I’d rather talk about a potential storm over nothing. I thought you were going away Heat?

        • Heat MIser January 3, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

          Don’t be rude Bobbie. Weather models nine days out have proven totally unreliable for storms in KC. It’s silly take each run this far out with any seriousness whatsoever.

          • Tdogg January 3, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

            Shouldn’t you be back in school?

          • Richard January 3, 2018 at 2:37 pm - Reply

            You’re the one being rude. Questioning Gary about following models.
            Always harping about it. It gets old. One reason I left. I come back and yep, here you are doing what you always do.
            Man you are something else. Why do you follow Gary.
            Where did you get your met degree. You never offer up anything except criticism.


            • MMike January 3, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

              Yo Heat Miser and for a few others…

              I posted this on Dec. 27th

              “The 12z data from the GFS has us below freezing for the next 10 days. The GEM(Canadian) has us colder then the Arctic. Likely a tad overdone.
              Both models are dry with maybe an inch of snow here and there. Let’s see how they do for the 10 days. Overall, a dry and cold 10 days.

              10 day forecast from the GFS would put us at Jan. 6th. It shows us finally going above freezing and a big storm approaching for Jan. 7th-8th. We’ll look back once we get to that time frame”

              We will indeed stay below freezing for the 10 day period and we look to go above freezing at some point this weekend for the first time in over 330 hrs…we also stayed dry. Now, the forecast from 10 days ago modeling a potential storm will be right as there is a storm to track for this weekend.

              You say data 10 days out is never right, well, it nailed this 10 day period almost perfectly.

              • MMike January 3, 2018 at 3:49 pm


                The 12z data today for the next 10 days:

                Cold early in the period with temps below average for the first 3-4 days. Temps warming above freezing with a storm centered around Jan. 7th. Following that, seasonal temps with a second storm approaching around Jan. 11th or 12th. Temps around average to above average from days 6-10. Potential of (2) storms in this 10 day period along with moderating temps.

                We’ll look back in 10 days to see how it does.

            • JoeK January 3, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

              Pot meet kettle………..

          • JoeK January 3, 2018 at 8:23 pm - Reply


            What you say is generally true however, keep in mind that this system does in fact line up with and fit the LRC. Models this far out should, as you say, be taken with a grain of salt, but they are useful when comparing to the LRC. We know when the systems fit and when they don’t and this one fits perfectly. The question now is what will it look like when it comes through?

            • Heat Miser January 3, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

              Right, so when it says snow one day, then rain the next, or snow on one model and rain on another….who knows?

              • JoeK January 3, 2018 at 9:45 pm


                Yes, models are all over the place and hard to tell how it will look. Rain, snow, ice or a mixture of all the above? Your lack of trust in the models is justified, just didn’t want you to forget about using the LRC as a sounding board.

  20. Brad January 3, 2018 at 1:09 pm - Reply

    What’s the new Euro saying, i can’t access it on for some reason

    • Mike January 3, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

      EURO shows no snow

  21. Adam January 3, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    Euro is saying rain as well for the storm on the 12th. This would be the ultimate troll job by mother nature. Finally get some moisture, and its too warm!


  22. Terry January 3, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

    But remember Between now and then we will see many different solutions and what type of precipitation it will be for January 12 th event!

  23. REAL HUMEDUDE January 3, 2018 at 1:59 pm - Reply

    Sorry snow lovers, but wet is wet and that’s what we need. If we can get an 1″ of rain out of these two storms that will be a great sign for the spring and summer seasons. Look at the bright side people, if these storms verify it’s at least some action

    • Adam January 3, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

      Oh absolutely. No question. Just would be frustrating if you’re wanting to experience winter weather.

      But yes, would take moisture any way we can get it, at this point.

  24. Terry January 3, 2018 at 2:52 pm - Reply

    What is the European model link so I can to it and see anyone ?

  25. Fred Nolan January 3, 2018 at 3:28 pm - Reply

    Can we just title tomorrow blog – “Same sh*t different day”?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE January 3, 2018 at 3:45 pm - Reply

      Lol Fred, we could do that every blog as this is life. Let’s hope for some good data out of the next GFS runs, bring on some precipitation of any form!

    • Gary January 3, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply


    • JoeK January 3, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply


      Your posts normally annoy me, but today, I am giving you a huge thumbs up as that is the post of the day! 😀

  26. stl78 January 3, 2018 at 4:19 pm - Reply

    Ground hog day wo the blizzard

  27. stl78 January 3, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

    I for one am ready for a warm up. Been awhile since ive seen double digit temps. I have frozen pipes and a garage door that wont function when below zero. Workin out in it is no picnic either. I dont mind the cols most days but this has been a long stretch below 0, even by Minnesota standards!

    • Emaw January 3, 2018 at 7:56 pm - Reply

      stl78, I’m with you, been working outside as well, hard to do things with your hands when your fingers get numb! If your your frozen pipes are behind a wall, try cutting some access holes to let as much heat in as possible. I did in my basement when we finished it a couple years ago, so far so good. I just put return air vent covers over the area nobody knows the difference. Don’t know if it applies to your situation but thought I’d share. Good luck.

      • stl78 January 3, 2018 at 8:34 pm - Reply

        Thx emaw, as of right now i just have the water turned off to the bathroom with a space heater. I will cut the sheetrock if necessary but use of this bathroom is not essential. Stay warm my friend!

  28. Terry January 3, 2018 at 4:36 pm - Reply

    The GFS 18z now shows mixed Precipitation on January 11th/12th ice/snow now!

    • Tdogg January 3, 2018 at 4:50 pm - Reply

      Storm Terry!

    • Terry January 3, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

      My B-Day

    • Heat Miser January 3, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

      Terry, I’m not saying it won’t happen…but on the flip side we all know what the models say about storm type is completely meaningless this far we all know they are wrong all the time

  29. Mr. Pete January 3, 2018 at 6:36 pm - Reply

    Heat is right. The models are crap this far out.

  30. Bill in Lawrence January 3, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply


    Happy cold Wednesday evening to you sir. Guidence suggests that I drop close to 6 degrees tonight; will be interesting to see just how cold we get. Will be interesting to see if this is our last dip into single digits or if the February/Cycle 3 Version can produce single digits with or without snow. We can for sure have single digits or colder in February even without snow so I would say that the possibility exists. But if you are betting do you make that bet???

    At the moment, I am interested in what this weekend will bring. The GFS has had a few runs showing this producing some qpf amounts between .25 and .50 and then of course it backs off on the very next run. The Euro has a much weaker surface feature that some of the GFS runs. I remember in cycle 1, this storm was a bit stronger and produced a bit more precip than guidence suggested. If we wake up on Tuesday and we have recieved between .25-.50 then one could argue that maybe we have began to turn the corner. This did produce .25 in cycle 1, so I would respectfully argue that .25-.50 is for sure in the realm of possibility this weekend and would say there is at least a 50% chance of that happening.

    Regarding next week….for now, the storm is supposed to be there and based on early cycle 2, it should track south of us. If I am looking at this correctly, in cycle 2, we had lost the colder air in this part of the cycle. However, unlike last year, our cold air source has not emptied out so cold air is more readily available and it is January…If we could get the NAO and AO to go negative and help this dig a bit it would sure be nice. This will be interesitng to track over the next week or so….my gosh, how many different solutions will we see? But we know it will be there and should impact us in some fashion.

    Whatever the case, we now have 2 systems to track and watch and by Martin Luther King Jr Day, we could well have recieved between .50-.75 to maybe an inch of qpf which compared to the past month would be like the Great Flood!!!

    Fun times ahead!!

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary January 3, 2018 at 9:28 pm - Reply

      Thanks for your input Bill,

      The NAO and AO are both heading positive. Let’s keep monitoring this, as without any true blocking this pattern may not perform very well in our area. The latest GFS model, 18z run, had the cold air mass come down perfectly to set up the late next week storm. We know there will be a storm near by, the question is what will the third cycle wrinkle be?


      • Terry January 3, 2018 at 9:35 pm - Reply

        Gary Can we have a good Snow event for B-day end of next week ?

  31. Rod January 3, 2018 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    I want snow!! I love the latest Canadian run. I know it’s just one run let’s hope by Sunday & Monday there’s some consistency between the GFS, Euro, & Canadian.

  32. Adam January 3, 2018 at 10:34 pm - Reply

    The Canadian on Tropical tidbits has 1 inch of snow, which is entirely different. It’s also much more likely to be correct.

    The 0z GFS has a stretched out, positively tilted, dysfunctional storm on the 12th. Where have we seen this before??

    • Terry January 3, 2018 at 10:55 pm - Reply

      Still like we been saying the models are still all over the place and what this storm will actually do! You can see how fast each model changes on the position of the storm And how it looks each model run.

  33. Morgan January 3, 2018 at 10:35 pm - Reply

    Done with winter if we get missed by next weeks storm. Perfect track but no cold air. I’ll be in the tropics next week anyway so won’t waste too much time fretting over this storm.

  34. Bill in Lawrence January 4, 2018 at 6:54 am - Reply


    Happy cold Thursday morning to you sir. Sitting around 2 degrees here this morning which is now my fifth morning in the past two weeks with temps at 2 or below. One thing I would respectfully argue is that this pattern will produce a period of 8-10 days in the rest of the cycles where we will be below normal and in some cases well below normal. I would respectfully argue that if we do have some above average heat this summer, it will be off set by a period of below average; in other words, we will have some summer relief in each of the summer cycles.

    The 06Z and 0Z GFS have again taken this weekends surface low further south leaving us on the northern edge of the precipitation. Again, in cycle 1, this surface low tracked much further north. I still think this bears wtaching for some decent qpf (decent for this pattern as of now 🙂 ) for Sunday/Monday morning. As far as next week….I’ll give it some time to Gary has said, we know there will be a storm and since we are in the “warmer” part of cycle 3, the models willl have trouble figuring out where the cold air will be and when. As much as I like snow, for now, I would take two moderate rain events in the next 7 days. Also, one difference with last year is that our cold air source has not drained…last year after our cold shots even the NWT warmed up into the teens and 20’s but the forecast for Yellowknife is for them to have some highs below 0…nothing earth shattering for them of course, but much different than last year.

    Again…fun times…of course as of now, dry cold fronts have been fun!!! LOL

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

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