Fires Out West & Snow In The Deep South

/Fires Out West & Snow In The Deep South

Fires Out West & Snow In The Deep South

Good morning bloggers,

Southern California is burning to a crisp with evacuations in neighborhoods that are being threatened, burning up, as a disaster is continuing out west. At the same time a rare southern United States snowstorm is in progress this morning.


I saw this map that was tweeted out last night. It is titled, ” Days since Last Winter Weather Advisory by NWS Office”,  The zeros show the regions that were under an advisory last night or this morning.  What is disturbing? Look at the KC region.  My goodness!  Take a look at one of the model forecasts valid this afternoon:


It is really a fascinating storm. Let’s remember this one for the next cycle as well.  It snowed in San Antonio and Austin, Texas as well.  And, this is the part of the pattern I picked to end the snowflake contest in KC.  Over 13,000 people participated in the contest, and KC has no sign of any snow in sight, but look at what is forecast to develop in the next two weeks:


A rather large and cold Arctic air mass is growing, and within two weeks it is forecast to be rather expansive over almost all of Canada extending into Alaska and then across the North Pole.

While all of this happens, KC continues to be dry with no storm in sight.  We will discuss all of this on 41 Action News tonight.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let’s discuss any of this that comes to your mind over on the Weather2020 blog.

Have a great Friday!


2017-12-10T07:46:34+00:00 December 8th, 2017|General|92 Comments


  1. stl78 December 8, 2017 at 7:25 am - Reply

    Yada yada

    • Richard December 8, 2017 at 9:00 am - Reply


      • Bluetooth December 8, 2017 at 9:15 pm - Reply

        I don’t know what to say anymore….

  2. Dakota December 8, 2017 at 7:26 am - Reply

    What are you implying? That the cold air mass is going to drop into the plains and give us chances of snow?

    • Clint December 8, 2017 at 7:38 am - Reply

      Great question I hope he answers this.

    • Gary December 8, 2017 at 7:40 am - Reply

      I am just monitoring it closely. Arctic air masses that grow and expand, like this one “may” do, have to be monitored closely. If this one does become that expansive, then a major Arctic blast becomes much more likely. On last nights model run there were little snow systems passing by north of KC, but again nothing happens here. Something has to give soon, but for now we continue to to wait and monitor.


  3. MikeL December 8, 2017 at 7:37 am - Reply

    Here in SW Topeka:
    No 3″ or more snowfalls in the last 1,403 days.
    Only 0.17″ of precip in last 48 days.

    We’re pretty much on life support now.

    • Roger December 8, 2017 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      Dodge City has only received 0.01″ in the last 63 days ( if you include today ).

  4. Kurt December 8, 2017 at 7:46 am - Reply

    I am right there with the frustrations and adding to this dryness since mid to late October is that we’re 10 inches below yearcti date from being in the wrong spot last lrc. Just very discouraging not to get a wet storm here

    • Gary December 8, 2017 at 7:49 am - Reply

      It is very frustrating. When I saw La Niña developing, I was concerned. It is a factor, but it didn’t mean it had to be a worst case scenario, and I am talking about the lack of snow, or any moisture for that matter. Something has to give if this Arctic air mass does come down. For now, we have to be patient as there is nothing else we can do.


  5. Patti December 8, 2017 at 7:47 am - Reply

    The last one would have been the ice storm that wasn’t, right?

  6. stl78 December 8, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

    Here in se mn we actually warmed up a bit overnight ahead of a shortwave that should produce a quick 1 to 2 later today. The winds have subsided today but will should return tom creating some blowing and drifting of whatever does fall today. One advantage our town here winona ,mn experience is being a bluff town. We are often protected from the strongest of winds. However, if u go down to the Mississippi river or along the bluff tops (about 700 ft elevation) the winds are much greater. I think those of u around kc will still b happy with snowfall totals for the year and i would venture your less than 3 in snowstorm will come to an end. Regardless, life is short, try and make the most of it!!

  7. BSMike December 8, 2017 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Wasn’t the headline “Change in ten days” just yesterday, what happened to that?

    • Gary December 8, 2017 at 8:12 am - Reply

      The change is on the way, but for KC each change is a different version of dry and nothing on the way. I hate to say! I thought it would be a drier winter, a colder winter, but not a snowless one. It is still way too early to get too concerned.


      • Fred Nolan December 8, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

        Haha. What? “Each change is a different version of dry”. Can you explain that? What its getting colder, warmer, different pattern. News flash there Gary, isnt that the nature of weather, change? Not trying to be too critical, just seems as though you always have a way to CYA, no offense.
        Sounds like the “Change in ten days” for a blog title was nothing more than clickbait!

        • Richard December 8, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

          Exactly ! Doublespeak

        • Coachshawn December 8, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

          I agree. I know everyone wants there to be some hope for a change to something exciting, but at what point do we just admit that there isn’t much chance for a lot of excitement this winter?

          • MMike December 8, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply


            Same thing was said last Feb. and early March about the dry weather. No end in sight…looks like a drought and a scorching summer… We then went on to have a wetter then average spring and summer. So, things do change and they change in a hurry even when things look bleak.


            Gary is not covering his a$$, for what? He called for dry winter. He called for 20 inches of snow…we still have 92 days of that snow window left. He hasn’t changed his forecast, sticking to it. CYA…not at all. The change he called for in 10 days hasn’t even passed yet.

            Richard, you have gotten into the habit of anything that is posted that goes against the grain of Gary, you post EXACTLY!!(you have done it 10 times now) It’s so obvious your constant drive to call out Gary…amazing. I mean you call him out on everything.

            • Heat Miser December 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

              LOL..we are only 8 days into December and the start of winter is still a couple of weeks away. That’s what some do here, a dry spell, or a bad model run and they start crying that the sky is falling. So much drama.

              • KS Jones December 8, 2017 at 1:45 pm

                That’s the way that the world goes ’round.
                You’re up one day and the next you’re down.
                It’s half an inch of water and you think you’re gonna drown.
                That’s the way that the world goes ’round.

            • Richard December 8, 2017 at 3:28 pm - Reply

              Mike Mike Mike
              Exactly ! Exactly !
              Now that makes an even dozen.
              Nice that you have time to count how many times I say it. I lost track ! lol

              I don’t criticize Gary as much as you critisize everyone on here who complains about the dry pattern.
              We all have our shortcomings. But we also have the right to our opinions about these winters.
              Despite what you think I appreciate Gary and his lrc theory. Hes the only one I watch. The only one I trust to give KC an accurate forecast.

              • joe December 8, 2017 at 3:53 pm


                I’m calling BS on your statement. MMike sticks to the facts and many on here don’t like it nor can they debate it. There is a distinct difference between being critical and statistical observation. The other day you stated we only had .25 inches of rain in the first cycle of the LRC. Wrong! we received 4.87 inches in the month of October with a surplus of over an inch and a half.

        • NoBeachHere December 8, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

          Fred, I, like and many others are a bit frustrated at the weather but cya?
          You know just as well as I that forecasting is hard, even with a pretty good tool in the LRC. I’m sure Gary is a bit frustrated that what looks and supposed to happen are not exactly or maybe even close to what should happen according to the LRC. That being said, so far it’s been correct, a bit colder and dry. The frustrating part in no weather events taking place. So if it was warmer and wetter than what he predicted, Gary gets slammed. If it was warmer but wetter, Gary gets slammed. If it was really cold and snow event after snow event, Gary gets slammed. All this and winter officially has not started, it’s not even January yet. So in a future retrospect, come middle of March and what is now stays current, Gary gets slammed but if it stays cold and we get say 17” or 19” of snow, what will you say then? That he covered and danced around on the whole cya thing?
          All I’m stating is in each cycle, while the players are close to the same position on the field, one or 2 of the players are or maybe a bit more of an influence that was not, could have or may not have been a bigger influence in or on the previous cycle. So each cycle is different but the pattern is the same. Again, I understand your frustration and perhaps instead of pointing out “cya”, State, in your opinion, a question about one of the players, their position, strength and influence in this cycle comparative to the previous cycle. It’s a Q&A blog with many inputs from many people, so let’s try to be helpful and informative please kind sir.

        • KS Jones December 8, 2017 at 11:07 am - Reply

          The “change” was in reference to the flow of the jet stream (from undulating to flat).

        • Bluetooth December 8, 2017 at 9:18 pm - Reply

          The winter forecast has been a train wreck–let’s admit that. Dry, dry, POOF, poof, POOF……..

          • Gary December 8, 2017 at 9:27 pm - Reply

            It is not even winter yet.


  8. Coachshawn December 8, 2017 at 7:57 am - Reply

    I love this blog and reading everyone’s take on the weather but it appears to me that there will be little to discuss this winter unless it is more panic about how warm and dry it is currently, and how warm and dry it will apparently be for the remainder of the lrc year.

    I know there are still a lot of people that want to talk about there still being “players on the field” and a hopeful forecast made two weeks ago about the NAO and AO dipping negative, but when you start looking at the reality of what we currently have and the trends of this lrc, it certainly seems to be pretty bleak for any real winter weather.

    While not having any real winter weather sucks for me, I am experiencing ever growing concern about what this might translate into come summer. I know there are plenty of people that will bash me for looking that far ahead and I certainly realize that there are plenty of factors that might help us out come spring and summer, but wow…temps that are forecasted to be 10 to 15 degrees above average and absolutely no real precipitation is concerning!

  9. kstater December 8, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

    I am also concerned about dry weather, but I think most of these fronts that are coming in dry now will have precipitation this spring and summer. This has seemed to be a common theme the last few winters (dry winters, wet spring/summer). We have to remember if it wasn’t for the ridge out west we likely would have gotten a couple of systems in this cycle. Even though it looks dry until at least around the 20th i think we will have a few active periods this winter.

  10. Three7s December 8, 2017 at 8:47 am - Reply

    I don’t think the arctic air potentially invading again means anything. The snow will go north or south of us, per usual.

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2017 at 12:48 pm - Reply

      nonsense, snow has hit us many times over the years. Lets wait and see this winter, which is still doesnt even start for a couple of weeks by the way.

  11. terry December 8, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

    Gary what has to happen for as to ha e snow chances hear in KC ? In A conversation this morning with another blogger? You Said Something has to give soon ? What needs to happen or give soon ?

    • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

      The western ridge needs to flatten or move west out to sea, or all the way to the east coast.

  12. Richard December 8, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    4 inches in Corpus Christi TX now. The last time KC had 4 inches in one day was Feb 2014.

    The following is from NWS Kansas City facebook page :

    “We have a long way to go til the end of the month, but for those wondering… KC has gotten through December without any measurable snow 5 times. The most recent occurrence was 2001. That ’01-’02 winter season totaled 8.6″ of snowfall. Why do we bring this stat up? Models suggest that the huge ridge of high pressure over the western US will remain in place through the middle part of Dec, which will effectively keep large storms out of the area until at least the week before Christmas.”

  13. Craig December 8, 2017 at 9:05 am - Reply

    Gary, this is getting really bad.
    Yesterday’s runs at least allowed some hope of that west coast ridge breaking down. Today? Nothing. Still in place through the whole 16 days.
    I know I have modelitis…but…this is getting pretty bad. No rain at all…and, more importantly no snow, either…over almost the entire western half of the CONUS. It’s not unusual anymore for CA to have a small snowpack but what if the Rockies end up with just 25% of average? Would make for a pretty dismal water situation for the west and southwest next year.

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2017 at 12:48 pm - Reply

      first clue…stop looking at models two weeks out…they suck

      • Bluetooth December 8, 2017 at 9:21 pm - Reply

        When the models are right, follow them, other wise don’t follow them—-hahahaha…..

  14. Three7s December 8, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Is it unusual for a ridge to be in place over the western part of the nation? No, but usually it’s further off the coast than this. The pattern that has set up this year is a classic weak La Nina pattern. The month of January is our best chance for, not just snow, but any type of precipitation until spring. That’s the reality of this situation.

  15. Lary Gezak December 8, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply


    Give us bloggers some hope. Tell us, do you see ANY snow coming anytime soon? December? January? There is so much negativity and panic on this blog, hich is justified because this pattern is horrible. Can you give us any hope?!

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2017 at 12:49 pm - Reply

      oh, they do this every year…like little girls. lol

  16. Rod December 8, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

    Gary do you expect the persistent ridge along the west coast to be broken down by the time the big Arctic airmass builds over Canada just before Christmas. If so & the Arctic airmass plunges deep into the lower 48 would this allow storms to dig, create a more volatile jet stream & create winter storms for our area?? Is the key having the ridge breakdown at the same time or just before Arctic air pushes southward? Thanks Rod Ashland, MO

  17. REAL HUMEDUDE December 8, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Everybody Shut yoyr pie hole and calm down!
    Lol,just kidding but not really.
    Realize 1)it’s not even winter yet
    Your going insane about no snow and it’s not even winter.
    2)doesn’t snow here much anyway, even on a snowy year. YOU want snow? Move to the great lakes or Canada and knock yourself out buy be careful what you wish for. I have east coast customers that almost cry to me when they are getting big snows, makes their lives miserable commuting multiple hours in traffic jams. Enjoy what weather we have,it’s all we are going to get until further notice so just deal with it folks it’s not so bad having Pleasant weather I promise

    • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 10:04 am - Reply

      Hume is right, and as I know Hume would agree:) if things ever seem to bleak just remember we have Trump in the WH.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE December 8, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

        Yes, when times get tough, I just think about how lucky we are to have #45. have you seen him try to talk about uranium intelligently?

        • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

          Actions not words, he’s not polished like Hussein was, but he is doing the right things for America.

          • REAL HUMEDUDE December 8, 2017 at 4:39 pm - Reply

            Can we not judge a man by the words he chooses? He should speak a heck of a lot less on Subjects he knows little of ( which would be most subjects)

    • Adam December 8, 2017 at 5:46 pm - Reply

      You don’t want to live by the lakes, I did for two years and it was hell. You don’t know snowstorm until you’ve experienced a persistent band of Lake Effect snow. You’re still expected to get to work and sometimes while you’re there they call a Snow Emergency and you’re stuck there because you’re not allowed on the roads. Drive a littld further north into southern Ontario and you deal with REAL blowing snow. Howling winds and you pray a semi is in front of you so you can follow his trailer lights…all the while hoping he/she is seated far enough above the white chaos you see to stay on the road.
      It would make Satan cry. No fun.

  18. Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    One thing we know about weather is that it’s constantly changing, as the LRC shows that weather patterns are in a state of flux (like my Christmas sweater if I don’t stop eating). I am thinking when the next weather events come around the ridge will have less influence and we may get a hot start to actual winter (Dec 21).

    • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 2:51 pm - Reply

      by “hot” I meant “active”.

  19. Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

    It’s incredible how persistent the anticyclone has been, at with pressure near or often above 1040mb we are talking a very strong high pressure. I can’t imagine how bad that would be here in July and Aug if that were parked over us, hopefully it stays out west.

    Gary, I noticed the forecast is for the anticyclone to position itself over SW Canada in the coming days, and with another high pressure of 1030 sitting over Texas, with this type of setup can ANYTHING squeeze in under and between the two high pressure systems, or are they in a sense just one big anti-cyclone?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE December 8, 2017 at 10:41 am - Reply

      Rememebr how last year the storms in the spring, snuck under the ridge Perfectly for our area. Maybe we can get a similar set up.
      I keep saying we really don’t need rain in the winter which is true for Cowboys and corn/bean farmers, but KS wheat farmers sure do. I know that wheat is thirsty out there, if it even Germinated.

      • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

        The gmo wheat doesn’t need rain, sun, snow, nothing, it just grows. That’s why wheat prices will never soar again. But if you want a healthier land one must have the moisture.

  20. Gary H December 8, 2017 at 10:43 am - Reply

    Snow and sleet just north of me here in Auburn, AL. Just came back from a week-long business trip to KC this week, and the cold front that came through Wednesday night really got your attention. I haven’t been in Alabama all that long (6 months), but I don’t miss the brutal cold air masses when I lived in KC. I am, however, looking forward to some snow this evening!

  21. Troy Newman December 8, 2017 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Its best not to fret about the winter weather. For one, we can’t do anything about it. The other thing is that if feel down about it its just a day wasted in your life feeling bad about something that you don’t know for sure will ever come to pass. There are good things about having nice weather. I do enjoy winter because I love hunting waterfowl, ice fishing, and pulling my kids around on a sled but if its nice we go out and play catch instead. The wheat does need moisture but one 2″ rain in March or early April would equal the entire amount of rain/snow we usually get here all winter anyway.

  22. MMike December 8, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

    Soon, KC will look like this again. Latest GFS has dogs hunting the week after next in the plains…we’ll see. Things are going to come together, relax, long ways to go.

    Careful now, many said last fall and winter suggested a hot and dry spring and summer…not even close. Matter of fact, the drought talk every winter for the following season of spring/summer has failed to materialize for (5) straight years. Sustained droughts, not dry periods. WE ALWAYS HAVE DRY PERIODS!!

    We’re in a rut, we always get out of these. Winter is coming folks, it was here last night…dropped to 10.3 degrees at my house around 2am this morning….COLD!

    HUME/SEDS…..Those Chiefs are on the right path, fooling everyone with this 1-6 run. We start the 4-0 run this weekend.

    Enjoy the beautiful winter video! We’ll see some of that white gold soon enough.

    • KS Jones December 8, 2017 at 2:18 pm - Reply

      There are signs in the long range forecast that the JET STREAM pattern will shift a bit and bring the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest and then down into Colorado. This change appears to be about a week away and could bring us into a snowy pattern in time for Christmas!

        In Denver, only 2.8 inches of snow has fallen since September. By early December, Denver should typically see around 16 inches of snow, so we are well below normal. 

  23. f00dl3 December 8, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    So is it just me or is it 4 of the last 7 winters have not had snow until January. Of those 4 winters we ended up with under 7″ 75% of the time.

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      so that mean almost half of those winters had snow before January.

  24. f00dl3 December 8, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

    December 15-18 will make or break this winter.

    If you follow the LRC and the cycle length of around 47? days Gary has stated, the 15-18 is when the non-severe storms with 2″ of cold rain from the end of October is due to cycle through.

    If you follow the Heady cycle, the length of around 60 days, this is when the first October storm that left us with damaging winds through the metro and then 1/2-2″ of rain on the back side of the anvil.

    Either way, if we are left high and dry from this storm, we probably won’t have another shot of snow until at least mid-January or if the 60 day cycle is correct, around Valentines day. By Valentines day the jet stream may already be shifting north, and severe weather may be a bigger concern such as the late October cycle-through if Heady pattern is right.

    • Three7s December 8, 2017 at 12:05 pm - Reply

      I think the entire month of January makes or breaks this winter. That’s about the best chance we’ve got.

  25. f00dl3 December 8, 2017 at 11:49 am - Reply

    & Correction – Heady = Early October = ~Valentines Day

  26. Snowflake December 8, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    Where did the heavy rain from mid-October (the first cycle) go when the second cycle came through dry?

    • Three7s December 8, 2017 at 12:17 pm - Reply

      The western ridge that wasn’t in the 1st cycle happened.

      • Snowflake December 8, 2017 at 12:59 pm - Reply

        Then how can it be claimed the weather is ‘cycling’ if the massive western ridge that has dominated 1/2 of the country the last two weeks (and is on track for at least another week) was absent in the first cycle?

        • Three7s December 8, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

          That’s one of the reasons I’m critical of the LRC, the saying of “the same but different”.

  27. Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 1:05 pm - Reply

    Last year combined precip for Jan-Feb in Russell and Salina respectfully, was .03 and .08, Nov and Jan was .79 and 1.30, but after Nov 7th it was .14 and .87. So for Russell, KS last year from Nov 8th, 2016 – Feb 28, 2017 they had .25 inches of precip over that 4 month period. That’s putrid! After seeing that I am beginning to believe we just might have a repeat and this year would be worse because you could make it 6 months without precip. I had forgotten just how dry it was last year during winter, that changes my previous thought that winter could come in like a lion.

  28. Nicholas December 8, 2017 at 1:11 pm - Reply

    While I will say that it is to early to see if this will be a dry pattern through the entire next LRC year, I will say that last year the drier winter did lead to a drier summer in areas around KC, not as bad as it could have been but def. frusterating at the least, I also disagree with the idea that it is “not winter” yet, in my mind Dec is just as much of a winter month as Feb. Now there are some years where there are back loaded winters where it can seem like Winter started later, but there have also been early winters where December was the main winter month, ( last year as an example), now it is still early to give up on the entire winter as a whole, but for me I do see Dec. 1st as the first day that “counts” in terms of the winter season, that being said there are alot of shortwaves that seem to have come through with the pattern and in other years we have found out that alot of times every other cycle mirrors each other better, so my guess is look out for cycle three( it still may mean that we struggle this winter, but instead of December giving us the best cycle( like last year sort of, at least in terms of ‘snow and cold’) the best cycle this year may be in January or Feb.

  29. C.C December 8, 2017 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    I wouldn’t mind all 20 inches in February, now that hunting is coming to a close. Ponds do need some water, but as long as we get moisture before growing season

  30. Clint December 8, 2017 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    Gary has the cycle length right, the ridge moving so far inland is a mystery to me. But if you look at the pattern the models are showing to set in around the 18th it sure looks like what we saw in early Nov. November was dry in cycle one but likely won’t be in cycle 2.×225.gif

  31. Clint December 8, 2017 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    However the big ridge was there on Sept 5. I think this proves the pattern sets up earlier than Gary believes.

    • Snowflake December 8, 2017 at 2:13 pm - Reply

      Where was that ridge in mid/late October–one cycle ago (per Gary’s cycle length)?

      • Clint December 8, 2017 at 2:20 pm - Reply

        It was not there in cycle 2 and if every other cycle mirrors it’s self if wont be there in the next cycle. Starting around the 20th or so we could begin a 45-50 day stretch of cold snowy weather. January should look like September, February should look like October and so on and so on.

        • Clint December 8, 2017 at 2:35 pm - Reply

          Sorry I confused myself a the last half of Dec and first half of January should look like November only this time the Jet Stream should be further south and stronger and the Second half of January the October part of the pattern should return.

  32. Richard December 8, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    What I posted about yesterday. Thompson Pass AK
    Now it is making national news

    Alaska just reported one of the most extreme snowfall rates on record. 10 inches an hour !

  33. Alex Pickman December 8, 2017 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    This blog is soo full of pessimism lol. It’s not even Winter yet, and we are only a week into December. Yes, the pattern has been bleak since October for much of any moisture, but damn lol. Once you get some atmospheric lift, and have cold in place, it doesn’t take much to get snow to fall, esp if snow ratios become rather high (greater than 15:1). A few years of nearly snowless Winters and everyone throws in the towel before we even get through December… lol. I’m not saying this Winter won’t wind up seeing little snow again, but given we are only a week into December, I don’t see a reason to throw in the towel yet. I’ll wait till February to start worrying.

    • Urbanity December 8, 2017 at 2:38 pm - Reply

      Alex, no sense in worrying in February because the winter will already be over.

    • Three7s December 8, 2017 at 2:59 pm - Reply

      And why shouldn’t we be? We’ve seen this show before, and we’re getting tired of the reruns.

      • Three7s December 8, 2017 at 3:00 pm - Reply

        And to clarify, yes I know Gary can’t control the weather, the weather will do what it will do, but when you haven’t had snow in 3+ years, people can’t complain about it?

        • MMike December 8, 2017 at 3:51 pm - Reply

          Sure u can, but every day? Can’t do anything about it, why complain?

          3+ years…2 years actually

          2015-16 had 14-17 inches around town. (Many small events…decent winter) 4 out 6 years before that we totaled 100 some inches of snow total.

          Officially, we are above average on snowfall in the last 7 years if you total them all up.

          • Gary December 8, 2017 at 4:58 pm - Reply

            You mean the 2014-2015 winter. The 2015-2016 winter had 5.9″ and the 2016-2017 winter had 4.9″. Hey guess what? The new GFS has snow moving in Christmas Eve. I would say we deserve it, but it is likely just fantasy right now.


  34. Richard December 8, 2017 at 3:35 pm - Reply

    Warning ! NOT weather related, but does everyone know about the new drivers license renewal fiasco ? Went to get mine and had to come back home to find my birth certificate ! Now will need to go back to DMV on Monday.

    Copied from a frustrated Kansan on the DMV website:

    ” FYI Renewing drivers licenses…. you will need to take proof of residence ( such as utility bill, or car registration ), and to comply with the new federal REAL I.D. law Kansas and all states now requires Social Security card AND Birth certificate (or passport) when renewing license. This is a one-time thing to get the new real i.d. drivers license. Its the law that all states have to comply with by 2020. Kansas is doing it now.
    So, four documents….1. your expiring license 2. Proof of address 3. Birth certificate 4. Social Security card.
    This is NOT stated anywhere on the renewal notices !! ”

    • Steve December 8, 2017 at 4:26 pm - Reply

      Correct. New Fed Law.

      • Richard December 8, 2017 at 4:42 pm - Reply

        It should be in big BOLD print that SS and Birth Cert. or passport are needed.
        They said you can refuse the Real ID card, and it will be a different card, but if refuse you will have to renew it sooner than the usual 6 years. The Real ID is mainly for traveling on domestic air flights I think.

    • j-ox December 8, 2017 at 11:24 pm - Reply

      Richard, check actual days of operation as our Lawrence DMV for issuing KS Driver’s License is only open Tue-Fri.

      • Richard December 9, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

        THANKS ! I checked ! Yep Olathe nly open Tues-Fri.
        They are open today too but only til 9:45. I cant go today.

  35. Rockdoc December 8, 2017 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    I don’t know about other folks, but I used the development of the super deep trough to hone in on the cycle length. It started to develop around October 23/24 and lasted ~ two plus weeks if I remember correctly. This time around it started to develop a few days ago, including the high pressure anticyclone over California, on the 6th/7th. Assuming 8 days in October, 30 days in November, plus 7 days in December, this would come out to be ~45 days for the LRC +/- a couple days to either side since there are small variations over time.

    In reviewing the temperature data for KCI, the official weather station for KC, between October 26th and November 14th, we were running ~10 to 15 degrees cooler than average, although by the end of the first week in November the average temperature had dropped so it was almost the same as the measured temp. Upshot is the cooler air moved in just as the huge dip in the jet stream developed, and the same thing happened this week.

    The biggest difference I can see is that just prior to the huge trough development in October, there were three days of moisture with thunderstorms on October 21st and 22nd with a trace of rain on the 23rd. We just didn’t get the rain this time around. Instead, it was to the south as I remember HumeDude reported he had rain down on the farm, and also there was some snow/snowflakes reported north of KC. So, if this holds true for the next cycle, then the moisture may come back around before the next trough develops – which will be around January 19th-23th (24 days in December and 21 days in January +/-). Then there will most likely be a couple of weeks of cold air again, lasting until just before Valentines Day.

    I’m also thinking that with this huge trough that forms, during the spring/summer the bottom of the trough will move north, but I think that there will be some cooler weather during this time frame, assuming there is cool air up in Canada/Alaska to flow to our area. Anyways…just some LRC trough thoughts here…..

    Hoping Everyone is doing well….have a Great Friday Evening 🙂

    • Gary December 8, 2017 at 5:57 pm - Reply

      Great analysis Rockdoc, and have a fantastic Friday Night In The Big Town.


      • BSMike December 8, 2017 at 8:53 pm - Reply

        Lol. Modelitis

  36. Emaw December 8, 2017 at 9:25 pm - Reply

    The gulf is the key imo, until she opens back up for business here we’re bone dry, especially this time of year. You snow lovers want legit snow? Stop hoping for “arctic” air the closer we are to freezing the greater the snow potential around here. As always I look forward to reporting my snowfall totals. . . Err not. Zonal flow is how I roll baby, haha!

    • Bluetooth December 8, 2017 at 10:30 pm - Reply

      I guess not only is the gulf closed for us but the gulf is getting the snow……

  37. Lary Gezak December 8, 2017 at 10:38 pm - Reply

    It’s Friday night in the Dry Town!

  38. NoBeachHere December 9, 2017 at 8:06 am - Reply

    Not to rub salt in the wound but here are some NWS snow to also from central Alabama

  39. Mr. Pete December 9, 2017 at 9:36 am - Reply

    Hang on everyone. Spring is just a few weeks away….

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