Snow In Mexico! Major Change in ten days

/Snow In Mexico! Major Change in ten days

Snow In Mexico! Major Change in ten days

Good morning bloggers,Before we get started, I would like to thank all of you for yesterdays discussion in our blog comments. It was potentially one of the best discussions we have ever had in the blog for multiple reasons. It was respectful, open, rather full of interesting information, and it is worth reading through again. I would like to thank you so much for helping us create this great forum for us to express our thoughts, and for providing your own insights where we can all learn something in this positive environment. Go through and read yesterdays comments if you get a chance. Many of the bloggers came through big time.  Okay, onto today’s blog!

While Kansas City is in a three-year plus snow drought, as it has been four years since our last 3″ snow storm, snow is likely in Mexico, and rather wide spread snowfall. And, it may snow over the deep south later today and tonight.

This map above shows snow over a large part of northern Mexico by 6 PM this evening. This wet storm system is then going to track across the deep south with a cold rain, thunderstorms, and some snow that may fall in cities like New Orleans and Atlanta.

While a half a foot of snow is likely over some of the higher mountains of Mexico, Kansas City hasn’t had six inches of snow in one full season since the 2014-2015 winter.  And, that 14.1″ of snow season was still well below average and it came in around 17 different snowfalls, for an average of less than one inch per snowfall:

There are some big changes showing up on the models. The blocking ridge out west has been so strong. It has also created the conditions for the offshore flow over California where the fires are devastating many areas around Los Angeles.

The blocking ridge continues to strengthen near the west coast of North America. This map above shows the forecast valid on December 11th. This system is called an anticyclone, or the opposite of what a storm is called, cyclone. This anticyclone is broad and rather large. As we showed a few days ago, this ridge is right on schedule according to the cycling pattern.

This ridge forming and strengthening in the next few days is directly related to what happened in the first LRC Cycle 48 days earlier.  According to the LRC, the pattern evolves in the early fall from October through November, then it repeats. One full cycle likely lasted from around October 6th or 7th (considered day one or two of the first cycle) through around November 22nd to 26th. This first cycle is now repeating. So, what is likely next? The eastern North America trough should retrogress with a “flattening” of the jet stream to more zonal.  This is now finally forecast to happen by most of the recent model runs. Here is the European Model from last night:

The ridge is forecast to drop southwest to off the Southern California coast by the middle of the month.  While all of this is going on, the pattern remains almost completely dry in many areas that are now in rather long dry spells, of which Kansas City is one of these locations.

Precipitation Forecast Ending December 20th:

As you can see above, the area from California east to St. Louis is almost completely dry for the next 13 days. This is a disturbing trend, but let’s see  how this evolves/cycles in the next few weeks. It can’t stay this dry, can it?  Those 17 days of potential stormier weather will also be cycling back through in January.  This 17-day stretch was wet in October, in cycle 1, and it has been dry in late November and December, in cycle 2. We will be testing this big time in cycle three. For now, it is about as boring as it can be near KC. But, not in Mexico or the deep south.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day!

Gary

2017-12-08T07:11:10+00:00 December 7th, 2017|General|50 Comments

50 Comments

  1. Three7s December 7, 2017 at 7:54 am - Reply

    The first half of cycle 3 will make or break this winter. Until then, just boring. Those of you who picked the first inch in January might be in luck, but if it doesn’t snow there, I’m not sure we get any measurable snowfall at all.

  2. f00dl3 December 7, 2017 at 8:10 am - Reply

    That anticyclone is going to be a big problem in summer months.

  3. MMike December 7, 2017 at 8:17 am - Reply

    “That anticyclone is going to be a big problem in summer months”

    This was said numerous times last winter…we finished below average on temps and way above average on moisture. never had a heat wave that was intense…not even close. Remember, drought and under 20 inches of rain was mentioned non stop on here…

    Now, this coming summer may have the problem with the ridge and anticyclone, we’ll see, but, saying that now because of the current weather holds no water as last summer proved that.

  4. MMike December 7, 2017 at 8:20 am - Reply

    “I’m not sure we get any measurable snowfall at all”

    I’ll bet the farm on that! It will snow and we will be able to measure.

    • Three7s December 7, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

      You didn’t include the “if” part of that statement….that’s a pretty big deal.

  5. benchwarmer December 7, 2017 at 8:22 am - Reply

    Rock Port got quite a significant dusting of snow yesterday late afternoon. It came down as hard and as fast with some of the biggest flakes I’ve ever seen. Some dusting remained this morning even in some sheltered places. It didn’t last more than half an hour but it was fun while it lasted.

  6. Lary Gezak December 7, 2017 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Major change in 10 days… KC is going from boring weather, to extremely boring weather!

  7. stl78 December 7, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply

    A balmy 11° here in mn. Picked up a half in yesterday. Maybe 1-3 fri. I still feel as those of u around kc will b satisfied when its all said and done.

    • Brad M December 7, 2017 at 10:18 am - Reply

      Hey stl78, where are you? I am in Burnsville (southern suburb of Minneapolis). We got 2 inches of snow but it was in top of ice, made for a long and treacherous commute on Tuesday.

      • Richard December 7, 2017 at 2:29 pm - Reply

        Brad M
        I think he is in Winona
        I have friends who live in Farmington.

      • stl78 December 7, 2017 at 3:27 pm - Reply

        Hey brad, Richard is correct, i am in winona, mn about an hr and 45 mn from the cities

  8. KS Jones December 7, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Drought Monitor — Missouri (December 5th)
    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20171205/20171205_MO_trd.jpg

  9. Lary Gezak December 7, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

    I’ve honestly never seen anything like this in KC. The AO has been negative or neutral for about 2 weeks now, same with the NAO. It seems like there is so much that has to be perfectly aligned and timed for KC to get snow. It’s truly mind blowing. Whereas for other locations North and East, it snows at will.

    I never thought we’d be talking about making history this winter for our 3rd straight winter under 10″. It’s sad, and boring. We will have another wet spring and summer again because the air then will be loaded with moisture. I guess all the excitement will come then…

  10. KS Jones December 7, 2017 at 9:26 am - Reply
    • Roger December 7, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

      Southwest Kansas has had less than 0.10 in of moisture in the last 60 days! Meanwhile, Southeast Kansas has had nearly 6.00 in! Could this turn into an epic 100 day dry spell! I’m already speechless as it is.

  11. Mike Holm December 7, 2017 at 9:31 am - Reply

    What if the cycle started October 22nd—or if you measured the cycle from that starting point? All of the wet period in the beginning of October was just the transition from last year’s pattern? Too often it seems like were fooled by the early period of the first cycle. So if the cycle actually begin on October 22, or if we measured it from that point, 45 days would be coming up next week.
    I bought my house in December 2001 and it hadn’t rained for a very long period, similar to the one right now. I remember this because when it did rain my basement was like a river. This year reminds me of that year.

  12. Rod December 7, 2017 at 9:43 am - Reply

    So after Dec 20th do you see anything based on the LRC to bring precipitation during the 5 day period leading up to Christmas? Any chance of a white Christmas? Thanks

    • Richard December 7, 2017 at 10:30 am - Reply

      According to MMike, the other day, he said there is a 100% chance of a white Christmas. Place your bets please 😄

  13. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) December 7, 2017 at 9:50 am - Reply

    Okay fine I’ll be the first one to say it today!!! IT’S ALWAYS TEN DAYS OUT!!!! 😑🤭😩🤬🤬🤬

  14. Michael Casteel December 7, 2017 at 9:51 am - Reply

    I recorded 13′ this morning with a wind chill of 3′! BRRRRR! Had a little bit of Big sleet or graupel like Gary said it was called. Still waiting for a plow snow! Have a great day bloggers!
    Michael

  15. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) December 7, 2017 at 10:04 am - Reply

    So I just pulled up the radar back home in D/FW , and there getting light snow ❄️ and flurries. 🤦🏼‍♂️

  16. MikeL December 7, 2017 at 10:29 am - Reply

    This winter so far has similarities to the winters of 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 here in Topeka where there were extended dry periods during the late fall/winter. If this winter finishes like those then Topeka can expect around 10 inches of snow this winter. I’m guessing KC experienced similar results in those winters.

    2001-2002:
    11/25/2001 – 01/17/2002 : 54 days : 0.16 precip – 0.0 snow : season snow total 9.4″

    2002-2003:
    11/15/2002 – 01/14/2003 : 61 days : 0.05 precip – 0.4 snow : season snow total 12.7″

    2017-2018 (as of 12/07/2017):
    10/22/2017 – 12/07/2017 : 47 days : 0.17 precip – 0.0 snow : season snow total ???”

    • REAL HUMEDUDE December 7, 2017 at 11:32 am - Reply

      Even the fantasy storm doesn’t hit us square, sort of come sin broken and reforms off to the east like we’ve seen over and over again so far. The systems are just barely starting to form once they pass KC, I have had benefit of several smaller scale precip. events that materialized for me and points east/south, but not for anybody else upstream.
      I don’t care if it ever gets stormy this winter, endless weeks of cold and ice SUCK from my recollection. I don’t ever get a thing done in these winters, we will have to disagree about why its so great to be locked into a frozen / icy tundra cause its not so great commuting in those situations and people do die as a result of these bad winter storms. Thank your lucky stars we are getting less snow, its for the birds. You always want what you don’t have…….

      • Patti December 7, 2017 at 11:38 am - Reply

        Hume I totally agree with this post x1000! I don’t understand the love of cold, inconvenience and auto accidents.

        • stl78 December 7, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

          To each their own. I dont understand how one could love 100 + wx but they do! People die in that as well

          • Patti December 7, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

            Point well taken. I would choose 100 every time over winter. As my friends in Phoenix say, “you don’t have to shovel sunshine”. 🙂

            • stl78 December 7, 2017 at 2:19 pm - Reply

              Lol..i like that. I enjoy all 4 seasons personally

  17. MMike December 7, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Clint,

    You can count on that. 100 percent chance of a white Christmas!! Winter will be rocking by then.

  18. Jsquibble December 7, 2017 at 11:12 am - Reply

    So the whole snow forecast was based off the 17 day stretch of storminess? The heady guy said this morning on his blog that storms will return in the next 10 days. Why do you have 2 separate stormy patterns if you believe in the same theory?

    • Richard December 7, 2017 at 11:33 am - Reply

      Whats the link to Headys blog ?

      • Jsquibble December 7, 2017 at 12:20 pm - Reply

        Headypattern.com

  19. f00dl3 December 7, 2017 at 11:17 am - Reply

    You know what is kind of funny is the “17 day stretch” of storminess turned out to be rather dry so far, but looking at the ECMWF and GFS both show the ridge being torn down and some really nice storms forming upstream. It may end up that the dry stretch in the past part of the LRC may end up being the stormy stretch in this cycle?

    • Clint December 7, 2017 at 11:45 am - Reply

      If you are open to the possibility of a 60, 61 day cycle, the latest GFS run for around Dec 20 matches up well with Oct 14. That would indicate the beginning of the 17 day stormy stretch.

  20. Anonymous December 7, 2017 at 12:39 pm - Reply

    12z operational GFS keeps rain or snow prospects grim for local KC area and much of the central and western US for the next 12 days at least, except the northern tier and current system way down south. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2017120712&fh=288&r=conus&dpdt=

  21. sedsinkc December 7, 2017 at 12:40 pm - Reply

    12z operational GFS keeps basically all rain or snow prospects grim for local KC area and much of the central and western US for the next 12 days at least, except the northern tier and current system way down south. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2017120712&fh=288&r=conus&dpdt=

  22. Thomas December 7, 2017 at 1:03 pm - Reply

    My home town of Corpus Christi TX is under a winter storm warning for 1 to 2 inches of snow right on the beach. KC still nothing lol.

  23. Urbanity December 7, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Late winter this year, with the rain in October, the fog in November, when that cycles back through in Jan-Feb, Katie bar the door in KC. I think KC will get Gary’s predicted snowfall total in one storm..beginning Jan 1st. It will be labeled The Great News Years Day storm. Still dry though west of Salina.

  24. Urbanity December 7, 2017 at 3:27 pm - Reply

    Gary, I remember from a long time ago when Dave Relihan with WIBW would talk about “double-barrel” low pressure systems, with a low over NE or SD and one over Southern KS or Oklahoma, it seemed those type systems happened quite a bit and always produced big winter weather. Maybe I haven’t paid attention, but I can’t recall the last time I heard someone in weather talk about that style system. Would that be two surface lows in the Midwest with a big upper low out west?

    • Three7s December 7, 2017 at 3:37 pm - Reply

      My guess would be that there would be two separate ULLs connected together with a front. One ULL would be up north, while a 2nd ULL would be further south along a front. That would definitely give us big winter weather, since the front would pass through with cold air in place for the ULL on the southern edge behind the front ready to slam us. That hasn’t happened in a very long time.

    • sedsinkc December 7, 2017 at 4:35 pm - Reply

      If my memory is correct, the Christmas Blizzard in 2009 here in KC was such a system. There was a major upper level low to our north-northwest, while another intense upper low came across North Texas before the upper low to our north combined with an upper high over the Southeast forced the Texas storm to hook a 90 degree left turn as it approached the Arklatex region. The southern system then crossed Arkansas and eastern Missouri, putting us in the blizzard, and then was absorbed into the upper low to our north. That big system spun around and sent pieces at us for three days that gave us occasional lighter but still accumulating snow. That complex storm system had Blizzard warnings posted at the same time on Xmas eve from North Texas around Wichita Falls to North Dakota I had never seen that in my life.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE December 7, 2017 at 4:37 pm - Reply

      Right, and as rare as that set up may be, what about a plain old comma head ULL? THE OLD CLASSIC 4 CORNERS ULL.
      And all the old rain turning to snow events it seems like we used to get regularly. We are having different winters than I recollect as a kid in the 90s

      • Three7s December 7, 2017 at 4:54 pm - Reply

        Last time we had that kind of setup was our last snowstorm back in February of 2014. Haven’t even come close to seeing anything like that since.

        • Troy Newman December 7, 2017 at 9:51 pm - Reply

          I think you all have got it right. We hardly ever get that kind of rain system anymore. Most everything we get is Thunderstorms rather than those slow soaking rains when we are in the deformation zone of a large cyclone. I know in KC or SE KS that is probably not that uncommon but I cannot ever remember a Thunderstorm between Thanksgiving and St Patric’ks Day this far Northwest until just a few years ago but recently we have had that happen almost every year. It seems in the past if you saw storms in Southern CA and it eventually worked through the Desert SW and then made it into the Plains. Even with last years wet winter down there none of those storms ever could make it this far. It just seems like the ridges and troughs get stuck in one spot and never move East.

    • sedsinkc December 7, 2017 at 4:41 pm - Reply

      Here is a story from the NWS office in Hastings, NE about the 2009 Christmas blizzard. At the bottom of the story is a satellite picture from about noon on Christmas Day. In it, you can see the huge upper low to our north, and the vort max that came by us during Christmas Eve night centered up in NE Iowa, being absorbed into that massive upper level low to our north. https://www.weather.gov/gid/blizzard_recap

  25. Richard December 7, 2017 at 6:55 pm - Reply

    Gary
    All those wildfires in SoCa are you familiar with the areas affected ?
    And was that anything you experienced when living there ?

  26. Richard December 7, 2017 at 8:15 pm - Reply

    THIS is where snow is.

    Thompson Pass, at 2,678 feet above Valdez, Alaska, is one of the snowiest places in the United States. Valdez holds the honors for being the snowiest city at sea level with over 300 inches of snow in an average year.

    Even knowing these amazing snow stats, our meteorologists and hydrologists are impressed by jaw-dropping reports coming in from our Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities road partners during this recent snowstorm.

    In the last 48 hours, 46 inches of snow was reported.
    In the last 5 days, 76 inches of snow fell at the pass.

    But wait, there’s more! It’s snowing again. Another 24 inches (2 feet) is forecast in the next 24 hours.

    That could bring 7-day snowfall to 100 inches or more (more than 8 feet)!

    It’s not just “weather”… it’s Alaska Weather.

    U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)

    • Richard December 7, 2017 at 8:18 pm - Reply

      And the video of the massive earth-snow-mover getting the job done clearing one of the roads was impressive.

  27. Lary Gezak December 7, 2017 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    I have never seen anything like this. The huge ridge on the Western side of the US completely just ruined our chances of any exciting weather during the “17 days of storminess.”

    It’s just our luck that with all the cold air and troughs, this very unusual and out of place blocking randomly shows up. It’s hard to get snow around here…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120718/gfs_z500_vort_namer_8.png

    • Anonymous December 8, 2017 at 5:06 am - Reply

      You must not have read the whole blog today ?

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