Good Wednesday bloggers,

Here is a look at the rainfall since August 1st.  It was quite wet during the summer, remember the flooding? It remained wet through October 22nd, three weeks into the new LRC weather pattern, as we had 4.87″ for October. Since October 22nd it has really been dry with KCI seeing 0.27″ since then, with many locations around the region having seen less than that.

We are not alone in this dryness as Gary showed on Tuesday with the 30 day percentage of average rainfall across the USA. The dryness extends from coast to coast and border to border. The state that has seen the most precipitation as compared to average is Idaho.

So, in our winter forecast we went for around to slightly above average snowfall. Have we made a mistake? Should we change it? Before I answer those questions, let’s look back one year ago. Last winter, at the end of November, we issued our winter forecast, calling for a warm winter with below average snowfall. December came in 1.4° degrees below average with a low of -9° on the 18th. We had 2.3″ of snow for December with the GFS and especially the EURO about this time last year showing endless cold and tens of inches of snow for our area.  It looked like we made a huge mistake. We were being asked if we were going to change the winter forecast, but we stuck with our original thoughts and we know what happened the rest of the winter, not much and even less than we forecast.

So, here we sit one year later, sitting on a forecast of around 20″ of snow. I went 19″ of snow, while Gary went 21.5″ of snow and we can’t buy a drop or a snowflake. Although we may see a drop and a snowflake this evening, more on that below. Last year was not the only example of us issuing a winter forecast and December acting the opposite. So, the answer to the questions above, is no. We must stick with our original thinking.  This first cycle of the LRC is having our storm systems, not only shifted well east, but dysfunctional.  Remember, October had 4.87″ of rain, most during the new LRC, this counts for something. Also, just looking at the pattern from October 10-November 15 there is almost no way we end up with less than 10″ of snow.  Now, all this being said, let’s see what we are saying  at the end of this month into early January.

Now, let’s get into the forecast the next few days. The snowflake contest may end from northern Georgia to the Florida panhandle to New Orleans!

WEDNESDAY: A cold front is racing south and will move through this evening with clouds, wind and a sprinkle or flurry. There is Arctic air behind this front, but that will be directed to the northeast of our area.

THURSDAY MORNING: Lows tomorrow morning will be 15°-20° with wind chills in the single digits.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny, breezy and cold with highs in the low 30s.  While, we are sunny and dry, a wet storm system will be forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

FRIDAY MORNING: We will be cold and calm with clouds moving in ahead of the next mostly dry front.  Yes, those are snowflakes in south Texas and even to New Orleans! The rain is extensive across the Gulf of Mexico to the southeast USA coast.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: We will be near 40° with a partly to mostly cloudy sky, while the southeast is having a rather wet winter storm. The GFS and Euro do not have much snow, but the NAM and Canadian model go nuts for snow from New Orleans to Atlanta! Wow!

FRIDAY NIGHT: This data has the snowstorm from New Orleans to Atlanta! Huh? Crazy! If it is a few degrees warmer, then this is mostly cold rain, something fascinating to track as we twiddle our thumbs around here.

SATURDAY: The big southeast storm system is heading up the east coast as a snow system crosses the Great Lakes. We sit sunny, dry and cold after another dry cold front moves by Friday night. It will likely warm to the 50s Sunday ahead of the next front Monday.

Have a great rest of your day and night.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

46
Leave a Reply

avatar
25 Comment threads
21 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
26 Comment authors
numb3rsguyKstaterKS JonesEmawSkylar Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Kstater
Guest
Kstater

The 18Z GFS better be wrong because it shows quit literally nothing over the next 384 hours.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Bill,
Great post, I’m on the same page with you quite often (except when it comes to wanting snow) but I’d be hard pressed to articulate as well. We need more educators like you. Great posts tonight all around!

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Just had a light snow shower by the convention center here in KC!

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

Second dubs ting of snow of the season here in Stewartsville, just east of St. Joe. Brief shower, but big, heavy snowflakes

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

Dusting**

TerryPolo
Guest
TerryPolo

Dusting of snow in Polo Mo. Nice to see some finally even if it’s just a little

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

http://www.wtsp.com/news/see-something-shooting-across-the-sky-tuesday/497423571

December 6, 2017

If you saw a bright light streaking across the sky Tuesday night, you weren’t alone.

NASA says they got about 60 reports of a fireball at around 6:30pm.  And their own cameras confirm it.

According to NASA the meteor was first seen at around 48 miles above the Gulf of Mexico and about 45 miles west of Naples.

Did you see it?  If so, post a video or photo using the hashtag #SendTo10.

David
Guest
David

There is a dusting of snow at Kirksville!

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Reports of snow dustings in northern Missouri. Snow lovers, perhaps prepare to maybe see some flakes in KC this evening if the snow showers can hold up. They may dissipate after sunset though.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

NoBeach, the massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in 2011 had no discernible effect on global oceanic circulation. The oceanic circulation is driven mostly by water temperature/salinity contrasts, ocean floor geomorphology to some extent, and prevailing winds. Earthquake activity is ephemeral, lasting literally seconds to a few minutes, for any single earthquake. The earthquake changed the sea floor, uplifting one part by some 30 feet (this motion caused the tsunami), but this change is not enough to alter currents. Here is a basic tutorial on global ocean current patterns. http://www.weather.gov/jetstream/circulation

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

If you want to find out more about the global conveyor belt, here is a link to the PBS NOVA program that covers this topic as well as several others. For what it’s worth, I don’t believe that the earthquake in Japan affected the global conveyor belt current. I have not seen any scientific data or reporting on this to date. The tsunami that followed afterwards did interfere with currents near the coast by forming whirlpools. https://kcpt.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/nves.sci.earth.oceancirc/global-ocean-circulation/#.WihmoGiPJPY What we do know is that with warming ocean water and the amount of fresh water entering the oceans via melting of the… Read more »

MMike
Guest
MMike

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017120618&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0

Latest NAM still pounding the SE part of the US with accumulating snow….NO FAIR!!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Mmike, you are drinking or high if you think these Chiefs have anything left in the tank. They have quit, already checked out for the season so don’t expect any fireworks over final 4 games, just more butt-kickings. We have lost to the Giants and Jets, 2 of the worst teams in football. Our defense is Absolutly terrible and I mean embarrassing ,and that’s what wins championships.

MMike
Guest
MMike

I know the perception is that winter is always dry compared to average every year. However, since 2001-2002 winter and the 15 winters in total to date, we have had more average to above average precip. winters then below average winters. 9 wetter and 6 drier then average…. So, the discussion which seems to be a constant on here that winter is always dry is not true. BTW, we only average around 4 inches of moisture for Dec. Jan. and Feb. (not much) Dry stretches are quite common around here for the period of Nov. to April. Now, the current… Read more »

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Mmike, why would you want the Chiefs to win the division to be slaughtered in the playoffs? I’d prefer they tank and get a higher draft pick, along with new coaches. I’m a Dallas fan and have already written off this season. The Chiefs are terrible and don’t deserve to make the playoffs.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Agreed…they arent good enough to be in the playoffs, and if they snuck in they wouldnt last long. Don’t get hoping a bad team sneaks into the playoff.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

This is a question for you numbers guy, seds and a few others with higher educations.

We know in the Atlantic, there is the Gulf Stream and a few other continuous currents.
I would assume the Pacific does as well.
Since the massive earthquakes off the coast of Japan, 2011?, how much disruption to the usual current may of occurred?
And to what extent did it possibly affect NH weather ?

How long before the current has established itself again?

To be clear, I’m not asking about global warming stuff or none of that, just specifically my questions above.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Oddly enough, the current in the Atlantic that keeps Europe relatively warm for it’s latitude was discovered by Benjamin Franklin in the 1700’s. He was actually commissioned by the crown to find a faster trade route across the Atlantic to the colonies. He found that the current off the coast of New England at a specific latitude could carry ships across the ocean faster than at others. It wasn’t until modern times (20th century) that we fully mapped the current and understood how it works. It is sometimes called “the great conveyor belt”. Indeed, like the Atlantic, the Pacific ocean… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Thank You, when I put NH, I meant Northern Hemisphere, my bad lol

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Northern Hemisphere would make more sense than New Hampshire. I thought that was a very specific question, but it turns out my answer is still the same, lol.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

NoBeach, the massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in 2011 had no discernible effect on global oceanic circulation. The oceanic circulation is driven mostly by water temperature/salinity contrasts, ocean floor geomorphology to some extent, and prevailing winds. Earthquake activity is ephemeral, lasting literally seconds to a few minutes, for any single earthquake. The earthquake changed the sea floor, uplifting one part by some 30 feet (this motion caused the tsunami), but this change is not enough to alter currents. Here’s a basic tutorial on global ocean current patterns. http://www.weather.gov/jetstream/circulation

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

I remember as a kid being fascinated by snow during the winter. Every kid loves looking out the window and seeing snow flying. I didn’t watch the weather forecast, and the internet was not available; I just waited for it to snow and if it did, it did, and if it didn’t, it didn’t, and I had no clue how much was going to fall. Now as an adult, I check this weather blog 4 times a day, i have several other weather blogs i read, I watch every new model run I am awake for, and i have become… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Should get a trace of moisture if this holds together
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

ITS SNOWING!! He had a good flurry through here that lasted about 4-5 minutes. It was pretty to look at anyway.

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Jeff – If early October saw several inches of rain in the first cycle of this LRC, where was that rain in the start of the second cycle this month?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

If the cycle is about 45 days, as Gary has said, that wouldn’t arrive until mid-December or thereabouts.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Oops that should be mid-November, and then again late December.

Snowflake
Guest
Snowflake

Where was all early October rain the next cycle through; in mid-late November?

stl78
Guest
stl78

Well written bill! I hope for u snow lovers the flakes to your nw hold together. Light snow showers here in se mn. Im ready for this wind to die down already

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy Wednesday to you sirs and to all of the 20/20 Bloggers. Just a few random points on this early March type of day. Before I go any further, I would like to throw out a huge caveat-I am a history teacher and do not have the science acumen as many posters on this site such as foodl3, Rockdoc and Seds. so what follows should for sure be taken with a huge grain of salt. Also, I know many will not agree with me which great-as William Hurt said in the Big Chill…just trying to keep the… Read more »

Jason
Guest
Jason

Excellent post.

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

That is about as sensible of a position on climate as I have seen posted anywhere and I think more people share your view but its always the extreme opinions we seem to hear. Unfortunately politics and climate got thrown together and that is usually bad news for common sense. I do think a lot of people are just unaware of what the weather is capable of and seem so shocked when extreme weather events occur. Sadly those who wish to advance their agenda use this to their advantage. It makes it hard for us that care about the environment… Read more »

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

Bill, good post. You make some valid observations. Climate is complex. There are a number of influences. Certainly, natural climate fluctuations occur all the time. What has happened in the past 150 years ago is mankind has increased atmospheric contents of gases that act to change the energy balance between incoming and outgoing heat radiation. The physics is clear and undeniable. Absent of other factors, the added greenhouse gases will warm the planet. While other natural fluctuations are still occurring and always will, man has imposed on that natural variability an unmistakable warming signal. It is seen in the form… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Bill, Excellent post as usual. You and I share the exact same opinion regarding climate change. I have repeatedly stated that we only have accurate records for the past century. As for science, it is the pursuit of the truth, not necessarily the truth itself meaning, it is constantly evolving. We continue to grow in our knowledge so when I hear anybody say, “we know what will happen in 5, 10 or 50 years” I simply laugh. I come from a family of science/engineering and my son majored in Physics and Environmental Science and guess what, his professor agreed with… Read more »

DanT
Guest
DanT

It will be interesting to see if this pattern of very little moisture during the winter months and above avg. moisture in the spring/ summer months continues. Starting to become more of a climate pattern of dry winters and wet summers all occurring within the LRC. . Time will tell.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Holy cow, that was a novel! :-O

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not to be negative, but last winter Jeff was quoted saying “how are we even going to get 10″ snow when there aren’t any storms to speak of crossing the country” , or something to that effect.
That appeared to be correct over the winter,but that spring we got ULL after ULL blasting our area with tons of rain. Where were these systems before Spring? It’s as if they didn’t exist until the Spring cycles came through which would be contradictory to LRC theory. What happened there?

Troy Newman
Member
Troy Newman

I agree that summer didn’t turn out quite as forecast but there were some storms last winter and a few were pretty dynamic. On Christmas Day we had the only Severe Thunderstorm I ever remember in Dec up here. It had enough wind to blow over about 6 center pivots. We also had the ice storm that dumped a Jan record 2.5″ of rain here as well as broke down a lot of tree branches once the wind started blowing. I think the ridge got so strong and far North at times that some of these systems actually slipped South… Read more »

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Whatever happened to all the maps of snowstorms 10 days out? I miss those, even if they were fantasy…

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s a sad state of affairs when New Orleans is getting more snow than Kansas City.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Cool, warmer, front, cold. Cool , warmer, front, cold.Repeat until Spring time

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Maybe the active pattern will shift into our area during the coldest months.

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

RIP Winter 2017-2018 lol