Good Wednesday bloggers,

Here is a look at the rainfall since August 1st.  It was quite wet during the summer, remember the flooding? It remained wet through October 22nd, three weeks into the new LRC weather pattern, as we had 4.87″ for October. Since October 22nd it has really been dry with KCI seeing 0.27″ since then, with many locations around the region having seen less than that.

We are not alone in this dryness as Gary showed on Tuesday with the 30 day percentage of average rainfall across the USA. The dryness extends from coast to coast and border to border. The state that has seen the most precipitation as compared to average is Idaho.

So, in our winter forecast we went for around to slightly above average snowfall. Have we made a mistake? Should we change it? Before I answer those questions, let’s look back one year ago. Last winter, at the end of November, we issued our winter forecast, calling for a warm winter with below average snowfall. December came in 1.4° degrees below average with a low of -9° on the 18th. We had 2.3″ of snow for December with the GFS and especially the EURO about this time last year showing endless cold and tens of inches of snow for our area.  It looked like we made a huge mistake. We were being asked if we were going to change the winter forecast, but we stuck with our original thoughts and we know what happened the rest of the winter, not much and even less than we forecast.

So, here we sit one year later, sitting on a forecast of around 20″ of snow. I went 19″ of snow, while Gary went 21.5″ of snow and we can’t buy a drop or a snowflake. Although we may see a drop and a snowflake this evening, more on that below. Last year was not the only example of us issuing a winter forecast and December acting the opposite. So, the answer to the questions above, is no. We must stick with our original thinking.  This first cycle of the LRC is having our storm systems, not only shifted well east, but dysfunctional.  Remember, October had 4.87″ of rain, most during the new LRC, this counts for something. Also, just looking at the pattern from October 10-November 15 there is almost no way we end up with less than 10″ of snow.  Now, all this being said, let’s see what we are saying  at the end of this month into early January.

Now, let’s get into the forecast the next few days. The snowflake contest may end from northern Georgia to the Florida panhandle to New Orleans!

WEDNESDAY: A cold front is racing south and will move through this evening with clouds, wind and a sprinkle or flurry. There is Arctic air behind this front, but that will be directed to the northeast of our area.

THURSDAY MORNING: Lows tomorrow morning will be 15°-20° with wind chills in the single digits.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny, breezy and cold with highs in the low 30s.  While, we are sunny and dry, a wet storm system will be forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

FRIDAY MORNING: We will be cold and calm with clouds moving in ahead of the next mostly dry front.  Yes, those are snowflakes in south Texas and even to New Orleans! The rain is extensive across the Gulf of Mexico to the southeast USA coast.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: We will be near 40° with a partly to mostly cloudy sky, while the southeast is having a rather wet winter storm. The GFS and Euro do not have much snow, but the NAM and Canadian model go nuts for snow from New Orleans to Atlanta! Wow!

FRIDAY NIGHT: This data has the snowstorm from New Orleans to Atlanta! Huh? Crazy! If it is a few degrees warmer, then this is mostly cold rain, something fascinating to track as we twiddle our thumbs around here.

SATURDAY: The big southeast storm system is heading up the east coast as a snow system crosses the Great Lakes. We sit sunny, dry and cold after another dry cold front moves by Friday night. It will likely warm to the 50s Sunday ahead of the next front Monday.

Have a great rest of your day and night.

Jeff Penner