A Big Change to Cold, Any Snow?

/A Big Change to Cold, Any Snow?

A Big Change to Cold, Any Snow?

Good Sunday bloggers,

Today is going to be another mild day with highs 60°-65°, but the differences from Saturday will be more clouds and an increasing south wind. The Supermoon will be visible from time to time tonight as it will not become totally thick overcast until after midnight. However, even before midnight there will be times of total cloud cover. The moon rises at 5:28 PM and sets Monday at 8:12 AM.

Let’s go through the changes and see if we can find any precipitation.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The wind will be increasing with areas of lower clouds moving north underneath eastward moving cirrus clouds. So, we will see the sun from time to time, filtering through the high clouds. The wind will be increasing to 10-25 mph from the south and southeast.

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MONDAY MORNING: The day will start mostly cloudy, very windy and mild with temperatures 60°-65° along with a shower and/or mist. The first cold front of the week will be racing southeast across Nebraska as a snowstorm occurs in the Dakotas, heading to Minnesota.

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MONDAY NOON: The cold front will be on our doorstep with temperatures 65°-70°. The record is 69° set in 2001, we will come close. There will be a few showers along with gusty south-southwest winds. We need the rain, but Monday will bring only a trace to .05″.

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MONDAY EVENING: The front will already be near St. Louis and the little showers that were along the front in KC will become a nice line of rain and thunderstorms as the front heads east. It would be good to see a nice line of rain here in KC, but the front is moving too fast. Our temperatures will be in the 40s falling to the 30s as this front is more of Pacific origin. So, this front will take us from unseasonably warm to where it should be for this time of year.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY: After the early week storm tracks across the northern Plains it will lift north into eastern Canada and evolve into a deep trough extending from the North Pole to Midwest. A tall ridge will form on the west coast of North America which in combination with the trough to the east turns the flow from Alaska and The Yukon right in to the Midwest. KC is on the western edge of the serious cold which means we will see in and out of the very cold.

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FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: Our coldest night this week looks to be Friday night into Saturday as lows will drop to 5°-15° in our area with below zero likely in Minnesota. You can see 32° in Valentine, NE which not only means we are on the edge of the cold, but it will warm up after this Arctic plunge. However, this Arctic plunge will likely be followed by more shots of cold the following week.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS: Monday and Tuesday, as the colder change begins, there will be a snowstorm from the Dakotas to Minnesota with 1″ to 10″ of snow likely. Then, as the Arctic air heads south there will be a series of southward moving disturbances that will bring a dusting to 4″ of snow from the northern Plains to Iowa, Missouri and points east. The heavier snow will be east of the Mississippi river.

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Could KC see any snow? Well, on Friday, as the coldest air blasts south, flurries are possible. A dusting to 1″ is possible in eastern Missouri and there is a chance this could shift west.  We will know more as we get closer.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2017-12-04T07:56:32+00:00December 3rd, 2017|General|20 Comments

20 Comments

  1. Fred Nolan December 3, 2017 at 10:46 am - Reply

    First.

  2. f00dl3 December 3, 2017 at 11:07 am - Reply

    I don’t really see this being that big of a change. 2 or 3 days of normal temps followed by another big warmup?
    tropicaltidbits.com /analysis/models/ecmwf/2017120300/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

    • Heat Miser December 3, 2017 at 12:22 pm - Reply

      From 60s to 30s for highs is a pretty big change, lows in the teens…brrrrr…way colder.

    • KS Jones December 3, 2017 at 1:07 pm - Reply

      The color code shows this area north of Manhattan will be 10° above normal on the 13th, and that would put us in the low 50s.
      I can live with that. I need to finish some projects in the the pasture that have been interrupted by the rifle season, which ends on the 10th. We’ve had hunters out there in the hills since Wednesday, and I don’t want the sound of my chainsaw to interfere.
      There was a space in the URL that you posted, so I corrected it.
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017120300/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

      • f00dl3 December 3, 2017 at 7:31 pm - Reply

        I put the space in to avoid moderation 🙂

  3. Bobbie December 3, 2017 at 1:09 pm - Reply

    What a beautiful day!

  4. Rockdoc December 3, 2017 at 1:12 pm - Reply

    Thanks Jeff 🤗

    You think it will be cold here, it will be a total shock to those in Miami, Florida where it may be in the low 60s. Not exactly swimsuit weather. This is from the 06z GFS run for next Saturday at 6am. The cold temps (20s-30s) also reach all the way down to the gulf coast!

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2017120306&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=

    Given the cycle length of ~45 days this means that the bitter cold would most likely revisit in the 3rd week of January and again in early to mid March! Maybe a St Patrick’s Day snow?

    Also, the latest Euro model run at 12z shows a trace/dusting of snow for our area on Friday as does the GFS.

    Have a Great Sunday Everyone.

  5. Anonymous December 3, 2017 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    You guys cracked me up trying to predict the weather the Models still all over the place It’s called model watching !

  6. Freezemiser December 3, 2017 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    I like the addition of the next few day’s snow prediction.

    I’ll be doing my best to pull that 1” of snow west to the KC Metro. As long as my steamy headed brother can keep his cool (not counting on this) we’ll see the white stuff!- Freeze

    • Heat Miser December 3, 2017 at 4:03 pm - Reply

      Back off brother, it’s not officially winter yet!

  7. Snow Miser December 3, 2017 at 4:01 pm - Reply

    It’s time to give up on the Chiefs.

  8. Emaw December 3, 2017 at 6:41 pm - Reply

    Are we past the panic period yet?

    • Freezemiser December 3, 2017 at 8:48 pm - Reply

      Are you referring to the weather or Chiefs football?

  9. Bill in Lawrence December 3, 2017 at 9:59 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good late Sunday evening to you sir and to Jeff and all the 20/20 Bloggers!! Hope veryone got to enjoy this beautiful weekend!!!

    In mid October I threw out there that I thought Lawrence would wind up with 13-15 inches this winter and had at least a 40% chance of going over that amount and only a 20% chance or less of being under that amount. I also thought we would have at least 2 times where we get to 0 or below this winter. Well, I am going to stick to that and let the dice fly high (to quote Caesar before crossing the Rubicon) If we get to April 1st and none these have come to pass then I will wear my clown suit and eat the crow. I will not only be eating crow here but also at school. I have given the same winter forecast to our school paper and predicted at least one snow day this year. You think this Blog is a tough crowd…..LOL

    All that said, cycle 2 is sure beginning with a whimper and not a bang. While I never pegged this particular storm as a snow maker per se, I did think it would track further south and give us a different set up than this which is more like what it will be in May sans the lower level moisture. One enesemble member has the AO tanking really big time in the next 10 days and others have it in the negative 2-4 range (I have to also say that one ensemble has it going neutral in the same time frame). I’m going to be patient and see what this LRC can do. It was just 4 short years ago that we had a high of 6 on March 7th so we still have quite a bit of time. But man….there is no joy in the models at the moment!!!! That SW ridge….it’s always something here in Winter. I just hope that ridge doesn’t decide it wants some Eskimo Joes and decides to set up shop in Stillwater this summer. If we can be in NW flow for 2-3 weeks in each cycle, summer could be quite fun indeed.

    One last random thought….while the first parts of cyle 2 seem like a broken record of the past few years, I would respectfully argue that this LRC is nothing like the past few years or 2011-2012. Besides the ridge (and how wet 2011-2012 was in the winter) I have had at least 12 hard freezes (at 800 ft not on the valley floor) and have already hit 15 degrees since Halloween. That is nothing like 2011-2012 or the past 3 LRC’s. This LRC is of course/indeed different.

    Have a great Monday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  10. Mr. Pete December 3, 2017 at 11:28 pm - Reply

    The winds have really picked up this evening.

  11. Kurt December 4, 2017 at 12:38 am - Reply

    The chiefs appear to be ready for a burial and hope can build a better defense in the off season. What a depressing season when they started so good.

    What’s the warmest record high low temp on December 4th? Looks like we might break it? Watered parts of the yard and flower beds and around foundation. Every drop soaked in, would be nice to get a wide spread rain to settle the dust.

  12. numb3rsguy December 4, 2017 at 7:23 am - Reply

    The record warm low for December 4th in KC is 57 degrees, set in 2001.

    The record warm low temp for the month of December in KC is 60 degrees, set in 1889 and tied in 1984.

    I don’t know what the official temperature is at KCI, but it is quite possible that a warm record low could be set. Of course, the 24 hour period that marks the “day” actually goes from 5pm-5pm (which is when the observations for snow depth and 24 hour precip/snow are taken), so if the temperature gets below 57 either early yesterday evening, or this afternoon as the cold front comes in, the official low temperature could occur during the afternoon hours, meaning a record would not be set.

    • numb3rsguy December 4, 2017 at 7:39 am - Reply

      Correction: The 24 period for temperature, precipitation, and snowfall ends at midnight. Snow depth is measured at 6am. The station where I live records data at 5pm, so I was mistaken. However, with the cold front passing through this afternoon, it will certainly be colder this evening than this morning, so a record warm low will likely not be set.

  13. Bill in Lawrence December 4, 2017 at 7:36 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Monday morning to you sir!!

    I think this is the same set up as October 9-11 I think this is that part of the pattern. What is interesting is that in that set up, I received close to two inches of rain with the two fronts and in today’s storm we were in the cold sector as the upper low tracked just south of KC….if this is the correct part of thew pattern and if my notes are correct. Looking at the surface charts for October 11th, we had NE winds and cool temps for the time. Just interesting how in cycle 2 this set up is much further north than in cycle 1.

    It appears that in this cycle, the SW ridge is playing a bigger role at least at the beginning. At least the AO is continuing to be forecast to go negative.

    Just a random observation that I’m truly not sure if on the right track or not.

    Have a great Monday

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Three7s December 4, 2017 at 7:45 am - Reply

      And this setup is proof that the NAO doesn’t really matter at all. It’s just another minor influence on the pattern already in place, just like El Nino/La Nina. If negative AO/NAO mattered, this storm would’ve taken a more southern track, like you mentioned, and hammered us with the snow that the Dakotas and Minnesota are getting.

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