A Dry Change to Winter

/A Dry Change to Winter

A Dry Change to Winter

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for an unseasonably warm weekend as highs reach 60°-65°. This means that if you have not put up the Christmas lights or cleaned up the leaves, this will be a great weekend for those activities.  It is also going to be great weather for Christmas light viewing in locations such as the Plaza, Longview lake, the Overland Park Arboretum and Deanna Rose or anywhere else.

A colder pattern arrives next week, so let’s go through this change. It has been rather dry and we could use some moisture, but you will see this change does not hold much hope for precipitation in our area.

SATURDAY: What a great day with almost no wind.


SUNDAY: Low clouds will move in tonight and areas that are cloudy will see lows in the 40s Sunday while clear areas will see lows in the 30s. All locations Sunday will see more clouds with highs climbing to 60°-65° along with more of a breeze from the south.


MONDAY EARLY AM: This is the day of transition as a cold front will be rapidly approaching from the northwest early in the morning. Temperatures will likely be 60°-65° early in the morning around here as we have strong south winds, low clouds and possibly a shower. A snowstorm will be ongoing in the Dakotas.


MONDAY NOON: The cold front will be on the doorstep of KC with temperatures in the 60s, a strong south wind, and possibly a few showers.


MONDAY EVENING: The cold front will be racing east and as it does move east showers and thunderstorms will be increasing, so eastern Missouri has the best chance of meaningful rain. We may see a trace to .05″ as the front zips by. Monday night will be clear, windy and cold with temperatures in the 30s, colder yes, but nothing unusual for December.


UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND: The flow will still be from west to east like it has been for a few weeks. This flow keeps the Arctic cold bottled up across Canada and Alaska as Pacific air flows in behind each front.  This is going to change this week.


UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY: The weather pattern will feature a large and tall ridge on the west coast of North America and a deep trough from the North Pole to Midwest. This turns the flow from north to south out of western Canada into the Midwest. So, the Arctic air bottled up in Canada and Alaska will become unleashed and head south.


END OF NEXT WEEK: The very coldest of the air will be found from the northern Plains to Midwest, northeast of our area. Lows may reach -10° in Minnesota while we see lows in the teens with highs in the 30s. We will be on the southwest edge of the cold, so it will be in and out of our area, so we will see some days with highs 45-50 and lows 25-35 into the second week of December. The data is trending drier and drier. So, not only will we not see much rain with the Monday cold front, but the chances of snow with the cold air is rather low for the next 6-10 days.  This may change, but the trend is drier.


Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

2017-12-03T10:47:40+00:00December 2nd, 2017|General|24 Comments


  1. terry December 2, 2017 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    It better snow around the 9th of December that’s when I picked it to snow for the Snow flake contest !

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2017 at 12:42 pm - Reply

      Its not looking good Terry

    • Bobbie December 2, 2017 at 1:29 pm - Reply

      Terry, I don’t your chances.

    • Randy Keller December 3, 2017 at 7:04 am - Reply

      thanks Gary! You the man!

      How bout them SOONERS!!! 11 time Big 12 Champs!!


  2. Three7s December 2, 2017 at 12:49 pm - Reply


    • Lary Gezak December 2, 2017 at 4:52 pm - Reply

      Exactly how I feel… Lary Gezak is not happy.

  3. REAL HUMEDUDE December 2, 2017 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    Great weather to fish, golf, or get outdoor work done. Wish all December weeekends could be so nice, all my chores would get done for a change. The weather will make a turn for the worse soon so enjoy this folks

  4. Freezemiser December 2, 2017 at 2:46 pm - Reply

    I’m ready…REALLY READY…for some snow. I picked a November first inch date and look how that turned out. The snow drought has to change!

  5. Dobber December 2, 2017 at 5:43 pm - Reply

    I guess I better roll up the garden hoses tomorrow. What do you think on the paltry rain chances for Monday Kirk?

    • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 6:47 pm - Reply

      You had better, and anyone else that owns garden hoses should do so as well. It’s going to be very very cold and DRY, DRY, DRY……..

  6. f00dl3 December 2, 2017 at 5:51 pm - Reply

    The flipside is again historically when we don’t get bitterly cold early in December we are more likely to get the brunt of it in February… The thing that very much scares me though is as deep as the AO dove to dislodge this airmass the chances of it diving to -3 again in February are slim. We may have another 2011/12 where the coldest temperature is barely below 10 degrees if we don’t get significant snow with this Arctic airmass.

    • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 6:49 pm - Reply

      I just don’t see it happening, unfortunately…

  7. Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 6:12 pm - Reply

    You guys Crack me up on here . It will and no it’s not going to be anywhere 2011/2012 year again ! It will get snow we will get Arctic air .

    • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 6:53 pm - Reply

      Oh Terry, Don’t worry— it will, at some point snow. I’m sorry that we have had such dry, dry LRC cycles. The odds are, historically anyway, that we will, in fact get more than 4 inches of snow by the end of March. At some point, we will be in the right place. At this point, I’d be happy with plain old rain…

      • terry December 2, 2017 at 7:24 pm - Reply

        Bluetooth that’s not me and very funny ! You get your snow just like I will.

        • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 9:45 pm - Reply

          I thought you posted anonymously at times-if that wasn’t you I apologize. The only time I don’t want snow is 12/21 when I fly to the tropical south pacific, just a few degrees north of the equator.

  8. Emaw December 2, 2017 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    When the gulf opens back up for business we’ll get adequate moisture, until then good luck with rain, ice, snow whatever. The more we have cold Canadian fronts moving in from due north or northeast the less likely we get substantial precip. of any kind. In other words, Jack Squat!

    • Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 9:05 pm - Reply

      Lol ok

    • Bluetooth December 3, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

      Emaw, that’s funny. Part of the joke is the gulf not being open for business as is manifested by the DRYNESS…… AND lack of snow….

  9. f00dl3 December 3, 2017 at 5:27 am - Reply

    Man GFS and CMC now say almost 60 on December 10th. Arctic air short lived!

    • Bluetooth December 3, 2017 at 8:44 am - Reply

      Wow, don’t let Terry see that…. by the way, where did all that snow laden, DRY storm generating system go?? I think I know– it’s called POOF, POOF, POOF……

  10. Randy Keller December 3, 2017 at 7:03 am - Reply

    thanks Gary! You the man!

    How bout them SOONERS!!! 11 time Big 12 Champs!!


  11. Randy Keller December 3, 2017 at 7:05 am - Reply

    hey kansas….. (insert crotch grab)


    Go Sooners!

    • Bobbie December 3, 2017 at 9:04 am - Reply

      Hahaha yeah buddy!

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