Good morning bloggers,
In our winter forecast we showed a forecast, and we basically used persistence, what has happened should continue to happen. There will be some twists and turns from cycle to cycle in this weather pattern we are beginning to experience. There are no signs of this changing at this moment.
Kansas City November Stats:
- Highest Temperature: 72° on the 24th
- Lowest Temperatures: 16° on the 22nd
- Total precipitation: 0.27″ (1.88″ below average, 13% of average)
- Total snowfall: NONE, average is 1″
The Developing Weather Pattern:
The weather pattern is about to amplify big time, and how it amplifies will help determine how cold it will get, and where winter storm systems will form. In the past few years KC has almost always been in the wrong spot. Are we going to have to deal with this again for the fourth winter in a row. I sure hope not. This map on the left is showing the latest model run from the GFS.
The map on the right is showing a model run from a few days earlier showing a big upper high forming near and over Greenland. This is when we thought there could be a deep negative AO and NAO index developing, leading to blocking, which could benefit winter weather enthusiasts by strengthening the jet stream and forcing it south. But, even when these solutions came out the models have not even been able to produce what some of us call “fantasy storms” since they are only on the models, then never come to reality.
The trend on the models is for this amplification to happen, but what does it really mean? We are in a very dry weather pattern right now across many areas. The most likely region to start getting blasted is east of Kansas City and centered on the Ohio River Valley northeast to New England. Kansas City is on the back edge.
The NAO is forecast to head slightly positive, then dip a bit in the next two weeks, while the Arctic Oscillation (AO) never dipped as much as was being forecast, but it is still staying on the negative side of neutral. There have been a few studies of the NAO and AO and what they will mean for a cold or warm winter ahead. The NAO going negative has shown to be a better indicator of whether or not it will be cold. Let’s see where these trend in the next few weeks.
For now, the dry weather continues. Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if yo have any comments as our discussion continues over on the Weather2020 blog.