How Dry Has It Been?

/How Dry Has It Been?

How Dry Has It Been?

Good morning bloggers,

Slide13

In our winter forecast we showed a forecast, and we basically used persistence, what has happened should continue to happen.  There will be some twists and turns from cycle to cycle in this weather pattern we are beginning to experience. There are no signs of this changing at this moment.

Kansas City November Stats:

  • Highest Temperature:  72° on the 24th
  • Lowest Temperatures:  16° on the 22nd
  • Total precipitation:  0.27″ (1.88″ below average, 13% of average)
  • Total snowfall:  NONE, average is 1″

The Developing Weather Pattern:

1The weather pattern is about to amplify big time, and how it amplifies will help determine how cold it will get, and where winter storm systems will form. In the past few years KC has almost always been in the wrong spot. Are we going to have to deal with this again for the fourth winter in a row.  I sure hope not. This map on the left is showing the latest model run from the GFS.

2The map on the right is showing a model run from a few days earlier showing a big upper high forming near and over Greenland.  This is when we thought there could be a deep negative  AO and NAO index developing, leading to blocking, which could benefit winter weather enthusiasts by strengthening the jet stream and forcing it south. But, even when these solutions came out the models have not even been able to produce what some of us call “fantasy storms” since they are only on the models, then never come to reality.

The trend on the models is for this amplification to happen, but what does it really mean? We are in a very dry weather pattern right now across many areas.  The most likely region to start getting blasted is east of Kansas City and centered on the Ohio River Valley northeast to New England. Kansas City is on the back edge.

Screen Shot 2017-12-01 at 8.09.17 AM

Screen Shot 2017-12-01 at 8.09.37 AM

The NAO is forecast to head slightly positive, then dip a bit in the next two weeks, while the Arctic Oscillation (AO) never dipped as much as was being forecast, but it is still staying on the negative side of neutral.  There have been a few studies of the NAO and AO and what they will mean for a cold or warm winter ahead. The NAO going negative has shown to be a better indicator of whether or not it will be cold. Let’s see where these trend in the next few weeks.

For now, the dry weather continues. Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if yo have any comments as our discussion continues over on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

2017-12-02T13:06:11+00:00 December 1st, 2017|General|78 Comments

78 Comments

  1. Richard December 1, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

    Anyone ever seen one of these ?? Weather predicting storm glass used by sailors for hundreds of years to predict storms.

    https://www.mrreindeer.com/products/weather-predicting-storm-glass

  2. Three7s December 1, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

    Still sticking with my 8.5 inch prediction. That ridge in the west/SW part of the nation is killing us.

    • Richard December 1, 2017 at 8:48 am - Reply

      Yep. Less than 10 again

      • Gary December 1, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

        That would be historic, first time ever in recorded history. I don’t think that will happen.

        Gary

        • Richard December 1, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

          In “recorded” history. But not all time.

          • Heat Miser December 1, 2017 at 11:33 am - Reply

            I don’t either. So dramatic some of you.

      • Snow Miser December 1, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

        If we get near Gary’s prediction, I bet half of it will come in one storm.

  3. Richard December 1, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

    Dry is the word. Dry “storms”

    Gary, when do you really think we will get our first inch ? Do you still think in December ?

    • Gary December 1, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

      It better happen in December. In the 2010-2011 winter we went from almost no snow to 31″ in around a 45 day stretch after the first of the year. This weather pattern can’t be this dysfunctional much longer?

      Gary

  4. terry December 1, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

    Gary When You used the word amplify what does that actually mean ? Could that benefit us?

    • Gary December 1, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

      Terry,

      When we go from west to east flow into north to south flow.

      Gary

    • REAL HUMEDUDE December 1, 2017 at 9:23 am - Reply

      Terry – amplified means the jet is having big ridges, and deep troughs, looking like a rollercoaster ride instead of a flat east to west orientation. You see how it pokes way up high into Canada in the graphic, that’s major amplification. When its amplified you can get big warm-ups, and big arctic blasts.

  5. terry December 1, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

    I still stick my prediction of 18 to 23 inches this winter! It ain’t over yet fun is just being !

  6. MMike December 1, 2017 at 9:15 am - Reply

    Hello Hello!!!!

    It’s Dec. 1st and the official start of the “snow window” I have not posted or read in awhile because my comments are always moderated…go figure, the best blogger ever and I’m always moderated…I know, total shock!! Stupid format…I hate it….. What good is a post if it shows up 8 hours later??????? Anyhow, let’s get this winter party started!!

    First off….I know, I know, no snow and a drought! That’s the forecast from the majority of bloggers every year!! There are good non complaining bloggers too… It’s like a sickness, always with the negative vibe of NO RAIN, NO SNOW and DROUGHT!!! Truth of the matter, in the last 7 years, we have had equally big snow years, big rain years, as we have had small rain years and snow years. So, it could go either way.

    Last fall’s weather told everyone that a drought was certain in 2017 with many 100 degree days…we got fooled. You all were right about the warm and snow less winter. The same few have called for drought for 5 years now.

    Listen, even if we have a drought, or a snow less winter, or a warm winter, or whatever, let’s not give up on it until it actually starts!!

    Today is that day everyone!!! The snow window has opened, let’s use the time wisely mother nature. Just like I said last winter, if we’re in the same boat as we are now come Feb. 1st, then we can gripe all we want, be negative all we want. But, folks, it’s Dec. 1st, let’s stay positive and the white gold will come. RELAX!!

    It so much more fun to be positive in life then negative…even if reality tells you that the negativity is warranted.

    100 DAY SNOW WINDOW HAS OPENED! Celebrate good times…COME ON(Sing it, ya know, the song)

    What an exciting time of year! BE positive folks, it such a better life. One would call this a crappy day because it’s not cold and snowy on Dec. 1st, but, I’m going to call it a great day as I’m going to go golfing. Fantastic! See….I just did a positive. EVERYONE TRY IT…it’s really the only way to live.

    I’m predicting a 100 percent chance of a white Christmas! KISS AND HUG YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS…YOU ONLY HAVE ONE LIFE TO LIVE, SO DON’T SPEND IT COMPLAINING.

    LIFE IS ALL ABOUT WINNING….GO WIN TODAY. BE POSITIVE, DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

    Take care all,

    MowerMike

  7. numb3rsguy December 1, 2017 at 9:19 am - Reply

    The Mauna Kea observatory in Hawaii has almost received more snow in the last week than Kansas City has had in the last two winters combined. The last two winters Kansas City has had 10.8″ total, and Mauna Kea received about 8″ this week.

    • Richard December 1, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

      Wow.
      Is that observatory on the Big Island of Hawaii? Not Oahau

      • NoBeachHere December 1, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

        Kaui I believe

        • Richard December 1, 2017 at 9:52 am - Reply

          The Big Island, which is actually called Hawaii

  8. Richard December 1, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply
    • numb3rsguy December 1, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

      It snows in Hawaii on the three highest peaks each year, yes, but that fact that they have received more snow in a week than Kansas City has in two years is not common.

  9. Rod December 1, 2017 at 9:45 am - Reply

    I’m going to back off my earlier snow prediction a few inches but going to go with 20″ in Ashland just south of Columbia . I think we’re just far enough east of the back edge of where the storms get going which appears to be the Kansas Missouri border that we will see some heavier snows and clipper systems that will add up over time. My guess range is 18-22″ so going with 20″. Rod, Ashland, MO

    • Richard December 1, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

      Storms always seem to get their act together east of KC

  10. Roger December 1, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Here is the December outlook according to one of our news stations in Wichita.

    http://janssenkwch.blogspot.com/

    Gary, how similar do these maps look compared to your in-house models?

    • Gary December 1, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

      It’s modelitis to the max! That forecast is based on one model run from a day or so ago.

  11. Weatherby Tom December 1, 2017 at 11:41 am - Reply

    Mower Mike, THANK YOU!! Very well said! You have inspired me to be look at this winter through the eyes of an optimist! The next 100 days are the best for snow lovers because snow can be in the forecast on any one of those days (and even into March), and if the snow totals are lousy, I will just hope for a wet and stormy spring (see, more optimism)!

  12. Bobbie December 1, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

    Lots of suicidal bloggers if we have low snow totals again!

    • f00dl3 December 1, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      Let’s hope it’s not like It’s A Wonderful Life without the snow on the ground.

    • Dobber December 1, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

      Suicidal? Come on now. It’s just the weather.

    • Heat Miser December 1, 2017 at 2:35 pm - Reply

      On the flip side, lots of jubulent bloggers if we get some decent snows!!!!

    • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 8:40 pm - Reply

      Say it aint so Bobbie!! Suicidal over the weather…….

  13. Anonymous December 1, 2017 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    Good Friday Afternoon Gary and Fellow Bloggers. Happy first day of meteorological winter! Boy, with as beautiful as it is today, and will be the next several temperature and sun wise, I’ll take it. I don’t like what I’ve been seeing in terms of the models on temps starting about the middle of next week and heading through the middle of the month (assuming they verify). Looks like we could be hit with a shot of very cold arctic air, where the daytime temps are in the teens and low twenties for a couple of days. My body and mind are not ready for this. Snow keeps popping up at different places in the model runs. The only question is where will it actually snow. I’m still thinking the 13th through the 15th may be a strong contender. I believe this is when Gary thought we may have a decent chance…going back a week or so ago in the blog. Have a Great Friday everyone, enjoy this beautiful weather while we can. I’m sure Sunny is jumping up and down too! Here’s hoping I don’t sit in mod too long 🙂

    PS HumeDude…..I’m doing the happy dance too….EF5 tornado about to strike DC. Flynn is prepared to testify against Trump and others in the White House/Admin….and that Trump directed him to get in touch with the Russians during the campaign……

  14. Kurt December 1, 2017 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    I get to garden and do yard work for another weekend and in early December. Granted it involves putting water on parts of the yard, but how nice to get out and enjoy the warm weather in early December and not have to slip slide on ice doing christmas shopping. But when we get close to the holiday we can all tuck in our houses watching the snow fall from the sky!

    • Trainman December 1, 2017 at 8:02 pm - Reply

      Kurt No offense but I’m really worn out with your doom and gloom BS please try and be a little bit more positive there’s only so much we can do about this it’s mother nature

      • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 8:42 pm - Reply

        Trainman, you are so very right…when given lemons, make lemonade….when given dry weather, buy a garden hose…..

  15. Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    Better buy that new garden hose Kurt!! Your going to need it.

    • Heat Miser December 1, 2017 at 2:36 pm - Reply

      Yeah, its gonna be too cold in the second half of Dec to water.

    • Kurt December 1, 2017 at 4:32 pm - Reply

      Only 9 inches down year to date, but got plenty of new garden hose this year. I can sell garden hose to others as a matter of fact (smiley face)

      • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 8:43 pm - Reply

        HaHaHa…. nothing like a little dry snowstorm humor….

        • Dobber December 1, 2017 at 8:45 pm - Reply

          Walmart has them on clearance

          • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 8:57 pm - Reply

            He’s probably deeply depressed about this dry and snowless weather pattern……

            • Kurt December 1, 2017 at 9:29 pm - Reply

              You need to mind your business Bluetooth. Obviously your clueless about landscaping and the amount of water needed. I’d like to get the subsoils replenished before the hard freezes. The only weather up here the last 14 months has been dry or abnormally dry. I’m not doom and gloom it’s the facts are what they are.

              Your comments aren’t appreciated by me or Dobbers or trainmans. You’re all rude individuals and just ignore my posts and move on. The dryness is an ongoing concern for me

            • Kurt December 1, 2017 at 9:41 pm - Reply

              Bluetooth lay off, you keep pestering and it’s not welcome leave me alone you troll

              • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 10:09 pm

                Kurt, I’ve been here as long or longer than you. Don’t call names unless you are willing to do the same….

          • Kurt December 1, 2017 at 9:40 pm - Reply

            Dobber I don’t shop st Walmart and you’re a comments are not appropriate. Kindly mind your own business if you can’t say anything nice

            • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 10:11 pm - Reply

              Hey Kurt, nobody give a crap about where you do or don’t shop. You did complain about the dryness, you brought that on so get over it….

              • Kurt December 1, 2017 at 11:15 pm

                I don’t give a crap about you as a human. I just told you to lay off. It’s dry it’s a fact and I have a justified right to bitch about it being horrible weather pattern since late summer when the lrc patten died in lste summer 2016. Read what Nicholas wrote.

                You’re being rude criticizing me and I don’t appreciated being criticized by certain individual that lack anything to say, I’m one of the very first bloggers ever in this site

  16. Max December 1, 2017 at 3:33 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    On one of the other blogs, someone posted a list of your snowfall prediction and the actual snowfall for each year. Your highest prediction was around 22 and your lowest was 13, so nothing extreme. But each actual annual snowfall total was usually well above or below your forecast (minus the few average winters). Assuming that the past trend continues, do you think there is a greater chance that this winter will be above or below your forecast total?

    • Gary December 1, 2017 at 5:06 pm - Reply

      Someone posted them here the other day too. We have been accurate on the right direction three of the past 4 years. So, if it is indeed above average as my forecast indicates, then it will be four out of five. Now, let’s be patient. My forecast is for 21.5″ to fall this winter. I hope to be exactly right, but we all know that picking a specific number for even one snow storm is quite challenging. I don’t lean one way or the other at this moment.

      Gary

  17. Richard December 1, 2017 at 6:16 pm - Reply

    Winter strom watch Casper WY. Up to 10 inches.

    • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 9:33 pm - Reply

      Richard, 10 inches of snow in KC is a dream……

      • Anonymous December 1, 2017 at 9:48 pm - Reply

        It will come this winter get over it !

    • Anonymous December 1, 2017 at 9:55 pm - Reply

      Casper Wyoming is not in a Winter storm watch I checked ! It’s Casper Mountain that’s in the watch! in the Mountains are justified

      • Bluetooth December 1, 2017 at 9:59 pm - Reply

        The only thing snow, Casper and KC have in common is the snow disappearing like Casper the ghost……

  18. Nicholas December 1, 2017 at 8:13 pm - Reply

    At least it will finally get cold enough to put the kibosh on those pesky yellow jackets that fly aroud food and trash outside everytime its above 50-60F or so hopefully we do get the moisture with the cold or when the cold relaxes again will all the very dormant vegitation the Red Flag Warnings will come out well will just have to see, Getting the Christmas blizzard in ’09 and a few massive snow winters have helped with the fast few winters, but I must admit it has been annoying, espacially when last year the winter was dry and then the summer did turn out to be not as bad, but St. Joe was just one county north of the area where summer turned wet and so we were left with seeing massive storm clouds from storms in KC after having to deal with last winter, and mentally that sucked, so hopefully if it is dry this winter St.Joe will be in one of the spots that turns wet in the spring and summer and not just outside of it again. Late Feb could be interesting IF it is dry this winter when the warmer period of this pattern returns before the moisture of spring does, but with the higher sun angle of late winter combined with dry dormant ground, I’m going to try to to lower my expectations to watching temp extremes and if it turns out that we get some fun this winter, then it will feel that much more exciting. 🙂

  19. Richard December 2, 2017 at 7:31 am - Reply

    Geesh.
    I see the name calling got out of control on here last night.
    Come on everybody.
    Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. About the weather.

    Have a good weekend.

    • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 11:37 am - Reply

      Richard, you are so very right.

  20. Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Richard you know everybody gets tired of people saying some saying it’s dry ! The same old story every day somebody has to say that ! That’s what people get tired of all the time . Things will change I believe in the weather And I believe that Gary thinks the same thing . In One of his comments to one of the bloggers Gary said Lets be Patient !

    • MikeL December 2, 2017 at 8:09 am - Reply

      Did you notice the blog title is “How DRY Has It Been?”. lol

      • Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 8:17 am - Reply

        Yeah but that doesn’t mean it has to be talked about every day !

    • Richard December 2, 2017 at 8:51 am - Reply

      It is Dec and it is DRY. It HAS been DRY. Every day.
      But, it is typically DRY this time of year anyway. 😄
      Gary needs to knock it off. He is the leader of the pack. 😄

      • Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

        It’s only December the 2nd . Give December a chance to Rebound !

        • Richard December 2, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

          I was joking. I am not worried about the weather.
          Like Fred and Gary said it will do what its supposed to do.
          Going on a sabatical from the blog until winter is over. Too much drama.

          Enjoy life. We only live once.
          MMike was spot on with his message.

      • Bluetooth December 2, 2017 at 11:38 am - Reply

        About the weather: dry, DRY, dry….

  21. Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 8:18 am - Reply

    By bloggers

  22. f00dl3 December 2, 2017 at 8:21 am - Reply

    Man – 06z GFS really backed off on the cold air. Lowest we get is 14. ECMWF & Canadian have been trending warmer for a day or two now. Starting to really look like Winter 2011-12.

    • Mike December 2, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

      What happened in 2011-2012???

      • j-ox December 2, 2017 at 9:52 am - Reply

        IIRC, twas a worthless Winter with quite a bit of rain in Feb/Mar. I was mowing my overgrown lawn BEFORE St Patricks Day. Then the great drought set in and my Lawrence location ended up w/ HALF of our annual precip for the entire year.

  23. Anonymous December 2, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

    You guys crack me up ! We all know the models and still all over the place !

  24. Bobbie December 2, 2017 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Always 10 days away!

  25. Richard December 2, 2017 at 8:55 am - Reply

    DRY DRY DRY

    lol

    Tis the season to be jolly. The weather outside is NOT frightful. Get out and enjoy it !

  26. MikeL December 2, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

    At the end of the day here is your CFB playoff final four:

    Clemson
    Oklahoma (there you go Gary!)
    Georgia (Very close win over Auburn)
    Alabama (thanks to Ohio State win)

    • Mike December 2, 2017 at 11:18 am - Reply

      Ohio State will be in!!

  27. Roger December 2, 2017 at 11:16 am - Reply

    Minneapolis and Chicago haven’t seen any snow yet. I believe Minneapolis averages their first inch on November 18. I’m sure some people there are panicking.

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