1,395 Days Since Kansas City Had 3 Inches Of Snow On One Calendar Date

/1,395 Days Since Kansas City Had 3 Inches Of Snow On One Calendar Date

1,395 Days Since Kansas City Had 3 Inches Of Snow On One Calendar Date

Good morning bloggers,

My internet was out early this morning, so this will be a quick blog entry.  The dry weather pattern continues and it is addressed in our winter forecast.  Here is a recap of Kansas City’s winter forecast:

  • We are forecasting a drier winter with below average liquid equivalent precipitation
  • We are forecasting near to above average snowfall with my prediction of 21.5″ and our weather team at 41 Action News predicting 18.1″
  • We are predicting temperatures to come in below average, so a colder than average winter is in our forecast

How long has it been since our last date with even just 3″ of snow at KCI Airport?  1,395 days! It was February 4, 2014

DSCN1130 (1)

This picture is from that last date with over 3″ of snow. 7.5″ was officially recorded at KCI Airport on February 4, 2014. This was Stormy back then. She lived to almost 15 years old and Stormy loved the snow.  Sunny is my new dog, and she is 2 1/2 years old. Since she has been alive she has only experienced 2″ or less in any one storm system. My goodness.

A colder weather pattern is setting up in the next two weeks, but it still looks dry. I will go much more in-depth in tomorrows blog and on 41 Action News tonight.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.

Gary

2017-11-30T08:57:20+00:00November 29th, 2017|General|74 Comments

74 Comments

  1. Three7s November 29, 2017 at 8:01 am - Reply

    Posted on the previous blog just minutes ago:

    Yeah, I’m just not seeing it this winter. A lot of dry fronts with nothing behind them. Guess we’ll have to wait til spring before we get any precip again. Sorry snow lovers, I just think the trough is gonna keep all the snow in the Ohio valley. If you want snow, go to Chicago points east. I mentioned these concerns awhile back and I still think that’s what will happen.

    Total Snowfall: 8.5 inches

    We will make history for snow futility this year.

    • Heat Miser November 29, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

      It’s been a wet year….we will have more snow.

      • Richard November 29, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

        The wet year was the old lrc not this one

        • terry November 29, 2017 at 9:12 am - Reply

          yes it was wet and the storm act alot different in each yet Cycle .

        • Heat Miser November 29, 2017 at 4:48 pm - Reply

          I think we’ll get decent snow this winter (compared to the last three yrs anyway). It’s been pretty wet.

          • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 5:29 pm - Reply

            Um….it’s a different LRC now… much drier. At least we can say we got rain over the last 2 years.

          • Richard November 29, 2017 at 6:08 pm - Reply

            Heat Miser

            It hasn’t been “pretty wet.”
            Gary said on the 5 pm it has been dry. 39 days since our last rain.
            39 days ago was Oct 21. Barely 2 weeks into the new lrc. Since then it has been dry.

    • Joe November 29, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

      7.2 inches…Gary’s forecast divided by three.

      • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

        Better buy a new garden hose Joe…. it’s going to be dry….

  2. Richard November 29, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    NWS Kansas City on their facebook page

    “There are only two days left in November and the snow total for the month is 0. And, if you notice those temperatures below, you can tell snow isn’t in the forecast. This is the 15th time in KC’s 130-year record that has happened. It’s also the 3rd November in a row without a trace of snow. As for today, you may see a light shower if you are travelling south of Interstate 70 today otherwise conditions will be mostly cloudy and dry.”

  3. NoBeachHere November 29, 2017 at 8:37 am - Reply

    It is what it is. I’m still sticky gn to my winter forecast lol.
    I do think the bulk of my predicted snow fall amour will come in the form of 2 big snows. The rest will be 2 inch and under quick hitters. January thaw, February freeze and March being mixed. April storms followed by chances of snow. Flooded summer of 2018 😱

  4. Richard November 29, 2017 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Gary

    How can “a drier winter with below average liquid equivalent precipitation” translate into “near to above average snowfall”.
    Seems like a contradiction

    • Snow Miser November 29, 2017 at 8:45 am - Reply

      Colder temps will make a larger % of precipitation events into snow rather than rain. So, even with less precipitation, most of that precip will be snow, so you still get average or above-average snow.

    • numb3rsguy November 29, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

      More specifically than what Snow Miser said: in Dec-Feb, KC averages 4.06″ of liquid precipitation. (I know it can snow Oct-May really, but Dec-Feb are the most likely to get snow) If you use a 10:1 snow ratio, and it was cold enough to be all snow, that would be about 40.6″ of snow, however, usually some of that falls as rain or ice. In very cold condition (<15 degF), the snow ratio can be 15:1 or 20:1, which could be up to 81.2 inches of snow. (this has never happened in KC, but can you imagine?) So if we had below average precipitation for the winter, say 3" instead of 4", but it was cold enough to be all snow, we'd get 30", which is above the average of roughly 18". Overall, I think the situation of getting more snow than average with below average precipitation is difficult to do, but still certainly possible. Perhaps Gary's forecast is an indication of how cold he thinks it is going to be this year.

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 10:22 am - Reply

      Thanks for the explanations snow miser and numbersguy

    • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 11:46 am - Reply

      Agreed

  5. numb3rsguy November 29, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Just some fun info on the longest streaks in KC weather history without 3″ of snow on a calendar day:

    1. 1393 days: 2/5/2014-11/29/2017 (currently our longest streak ever)
    2. 1078 days: 1/19/1949-1/1/1952
    3. 1018 days: 2/28/2001-12/12/2003
    4. 768 days: 12/1/1934-1/6/1937
    5. 729 days: 1/10/1985-1/8/1987

    So really the current streak is unprecedented, lasting almost a full year longer than the 2nd place streak. I think (am secretly hoping) that the streak will come to an end this year.

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 8:58 am - Reply

      Once again great stuff. Thanks !

    • Adam November 29, 2017 at 5:08 pm - Reply

      You’re always full of wonderful numbers info. Thank you for your contributions to this site.

      From one blog participant to another.

  6. Clint November 29, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    We just need it to be a little colder and we could have some winter next week. The Canadian seems to be the only model even close to resembling the Oct pattern.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017112900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    • DanT November 29, 2017 at 12:48 pm - Reply

      The GFS is showing a nice storm in here around the 11th. The 540 mb line is moving through KC at that time. Than maybe something around the 15th?? Long way out-

  7. Mike November 29, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Below is what I posted this morning on yesterdays blog. I am going to go out on a limb and say it will be snowy this December. This is just a hunch. I have friends up in Alberta Canada and they have had quite a bit of snow so far this year. Last year they had very little snow and guess what we had very little snow. So it makes sense if people North of us in Canada aren’t getting snow our odds for snow will be low and if they are getting snow then that should help our chances. It is just a matter of time before we starting getting our fair share. I personally like my odds of getting to use my snow blower this December. Go ahead and let me have it but I am dreaming and wish casting for a snowy December.

    Obviously I was bored this morning and went surfing on the internet to dig up this nugget of information.

    DECEMBER MONTHLY (1888-2010)
    Amount (inches) Year
    16.6 1961
    16.4 1918
    15.1 2009
    14.8 1945
    13.2 1983
    11.9 1987
    11.8 1904, 1914, 2000
    11.7 1978

    DECEMBER DAILY (1888-2010)
    Amount (inches) Day/Year
    9.7 14th/1987
    8.5 5th/1942
    7.8 22nd/1961
    7.7 31st/1978
    7.5 9th/1944
    7.4 23rd/1918
    7.3 27th/1904, 7th/2005
    7.2 3rd/1898
    7.0 13th/2000

    Mike

  8. terry November 29, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Gary’s Question only ? Gary you said in the next Two weeks the cold air pattern is going to set up. But you said it still looks dry. But in Previous blogs you had ” Mentioned that you do expect it to become Stormy at that time frame is that Correct ? “

  9. REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Last night the GFS had a huge storm in SW, almost Entire state of NM was covered in heavy snow into west TX. The next run it poofed, but maybe it’s into something. Keep an eye on the next few runs…

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 10:19 am - Reply

      Hume
      For what date ? In the past that is when we have had big snows, systems coming up to KC from the four corners area.
      I remember Christmas 1978 was a big one. It came up from the four corners.

  10. Craig November 29, 2017 at 10:49 am - Reply

    No snow event of more than 3″ in nearly four years.
    Incredibly dry new LRC that where the models consistently show no measurable precip for another two weeks.
    Yet Gary the snow lover clings to a belief that we’ll see 21″ this winter.
    Talk about wish-casting! Sorry, my friend, but outside of one crazy 18″ blizzard in March, there is no way we see 21″ this year.

  11. stl78 November 29, 2017 at 10:52 am - Reply

    24 in craig. Im stickin to it!😂

    • Craig November 29, 2017 at 2:06 pm - Reply

      As I’ve mentioned before, I’m keeping my mower deck on until it appears that the need of the snowblade is imminent!

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2017 at 11:34 am - Reply

    Keep in mind, each cycle acts a little different. Then they tend to mirror themselves every other cycle, we need to see the second cycle in my opinion. It could be Alot wetter than the first cycle, don’t ask me how but it could be. It’s another reason to be patient, yes the first cycle appears to a dry one outside of the first few weeks we experienced in October. Doesn’t mean the winter will be exactly like this first cycle the entire time, I still see snow chances

  13. Richard November 29, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

    The cycles might be the same but different, eh ? 😊
    Just can’t wrap my head around that.
    How many storms (dry ones) have come through KC since the first days (Oct 7-9) of the new lrc.
    Those storms coming back as wet ones.
    Gary said KC will not be one of the hot spots. Not even near a hot spot.

    • terry November 29, 2017 at 6:53 pm - Reply

      we had a wet after that lol and we don’t have to be in a hot shot this year so who cares about that okay. That still dose not mean that something can come together still this year. Did you not hear Gary say that if the AO go Dip Negative we can have a big winter okay and in is winter special on Monday night he said that he’s can see the low 13 happening to and also can see the 30 inches of happening to. Go look at the video and you will see that.

  14. sedsinkc November 29, 2017 at 12:03 pm - Reply

    Turning much colder next week for a week or two (or three?), but snow prospects are still bleak attm as we still look moisture starved. Maybe a weak system or two brings minor accumulations during the coming cold stretch. Sorry for the downer, snow lovers.

  15. f00dl3 November 29, 2017 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    If the northern plaines does not get snow, even with a polar vortex we will only be slightly below average. Hard to get snow here when ND aint even getting snow

  16. terry November 29, 2017 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    I’m going to call some of you Guys out on the Snow talk today So if Gary Predicted low snow this Winter You guys would Praising him for a good job on him predicted the low Amounts you all would be saying great job keep it up your the man. But now this Winter Since Gary is Predicting this winter of 21.5 inches of snow this winter . But no some of you Guys on here are saying No way it not going to happen at all this winter. If Gary is or seeing that it can happen he is saying something to make him want say where going to get Near or just slightly above 21.5 inches this Winter and yes he said that drier winter that do not mean that we will have a dry winter this year. Gary is the weather man Storm systems act a lot different in the Winter time . So you don’t know what will happen at all ! I’m going to Praise Gary pfor doing a good job on what he has seen or the LRC Pattern.

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      terry

      No need to call anyone out. We want snow as much as you. We all hope Gary is right.
      Like stl78 said everyone is entitled to their opinion. The snow talk go on until March. Long way to go.

    • Bobbie November 29, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

      Huh? Terry chill out! You’re attitude is offputting

      • terry November 29, 2017 at 7:02 pm - Reply

        lol

      • Anonymous November 29, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

        There’s nothing Terry is saying wrong okay!

  17. stl78 November 29, 2017 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    Terry, they r just speaking their mind. They r entitled tp their opinion, just as you r my friend. With that said i hope u get the snowfall u desire!

  18. f00dl3 November 29, 2017 at 3:03 pm - Reply

    I think Gary based his 21.5 off the fact that in October when the 3 signature storms moved through they had tremendous amounts of low level moisture to work with. The low level moisture at that extent may have been residual moisture from last year’s LRC at the surface while the new LRC in the upper levels was interacting with the surface moisture. Gary can say what he wants, I do believe we have the LRC in play but also a distinct surface pattern that the LRC pulls the puppet strings to in play as well (FRMC as I call it.) Now that we have seen storm 1 cycle through today it’s rather apparent. I am not completely sold that cycle 2 of our LRC will produce as much as Gary thinks, but I do think that we will see some snow in December. Maybe two systems producing Dusting – 2″ totals.

    Remember the dynamics and the AO & NAO influence on the dynamics:
    – The first storm in October (which per the LRC is the cutoff low producing rain over OK/S. KS/S. MO today, had us in the back side of the storm in the cold air. This means the low tracked to our south in early October. The low tracked even further to our south this time through the LRC.
    – The second storm had us mostly in the warm sector, with some back side anvil precip. This means the low during the 2nd part of the LRC due in around Dec. 6th will likely track to our south. Normally this would put us in a very favorable position for snow, but since (A) we are not in the LRC hot spot, and (B) the AO & NAO is sharp negative, the cold air will likely come in too fast and cut off the moisture on the back side. We may get some light snow but amounts over 2″ would be rather unlikely.
    – The third storm is the one to watch. This storm had us in the warm sector initially, but we had a lot of back side anvil precipitation. Look for this one around December 15-20 timeframe. If the AO and NAO can rebound to neutral the storm may be able to put us closer to the boundary between the warm and cold air. If we don’t get any or little snow from Storm #2, this becomes more likely. If we have residual snowpack from storm #2, the impacts that the snowpack has may force the boundary too far south, again, leaving us with another dusting – 2″ event if it doesn’t overshoot us and mature along the I-44 corridor.

    Another issue that we saw last year is we had the extreme Arctic air outbreak in December and the rest of the winter was mild. Historically, when we get bitter cold in December, including our all time record low of -23 F – we end up moderating the rest of winter. This kind of goes against the LRC in some ways but it does happen. I’m not saying that this Arctic outbreak heading our way in 2 weeks won’t happen again in late February, but with it being late February into early March with a 51 day cycle, and climate change at work, we may have issues with the storms putting us too solidly in the warm sector and severe weather setups with the sharp contrast between the Dakotas and here along leading edges of Arctic fronts.

    The wild card is the storms that didn’t produce. We had quite a few. Some of those with very cold air overhead could be 1-3″ snows, and while the bulk of our snow may fall in December this winter, we may have several clipper systems to bring us to 10-14″ for the winter.

    I think we will have quite the active severe weather season next Spring though with the frequent cold fronts during the 17 day cooler, stormy stretch, and as seen during the 2000s, the sharp temperature contrast winters create quite the favorable setups during Spring. I don’t think we will have problems with rainfall next year.

    • Bill in Lawrence November 29, 2017 at 4:28 pm - Reply

      Excellent post foodl3!!!!!

      I’m sticking with my 13-15 for Lawrence with a 40% chance of more and less than 20% for less. I still think there are enough players to hit that mark even in the “warmer” part of the pattern. We will know by April 1st. If Lawrence has less than 11, I’ll wear the clown suit and eat the crow.

      Whatever the case, this is an excellent post indeed!!!

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary November 29, 2017 at 5:01 pm - Reply

      fOOdl3,

      Wow, great write up. You have really narrowed in on this pattern, that just completed cycle 1. And, the latest GFS is one of the first model runs that seems to “fit” the pattern that I have seen in this early LRC season. That storm showing up around the 15th actually makes some sense.

      We will discuss this in the next few blogs. Thank you so much for your excellent thoughts.

      Gary

    • Mike Holm November 30, 2017 at 6:55 am - Reply

      Great post—that echos my thoughts on October. Too often the transition Between LRC’s is a blend of the new and old. I have noticed 3 well defined storms in the early October ave not materialized in the second LRC. I would love to show a picture of the three will define storms off the coast of Washington but I can’t post pictures on the site. I would suggest to Gary to use Disqus. It’s a much better platform for dialogue.

      This is looking incredibly dry. When I bought my house in November 2001, there was a stretch of about 60 days without rain, reminds me of that year. Don’t remember what that year turned out to be precip wise, but maybe one of you stats guys can figure it out.

      • Gary November 30, 2017 at 7:31 am - Reply

        Mike,

        Please tell me more about Disqus. I will look into it. And, I just completed a video, but it is ingesting right now. I should have the new blog ready by 10:30 AM. Thank you for your patience. I will be discussing the results of the first LRC Cycle.

        Gary

        • Mike Holm November 30, 2017 at 6:21 pm - Reply

          Disqus.com. I’m on a blog called opensnow.com for skiing forecasts and they use Disqus for comments. You can post pictures, files, anything. When someone comments on your post you are notified by email—that’s nice for a blog like yours, where you post everyday, to keep up with responses from previous entries.

  19. Jason November 29, 2017 at 3:16 pm - Reply

    Wonder how much value is lost on a 3 year old snowblower that has never been used?

    • Mike November 29, 2017 at 5:17 pm - Reply

      Fire up the snow blower boys. December is going to be fun!!!

      Mike

      • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 5:33 pm - Reply

        POOF alert now officially in effect!! Note: a poof alert is issued when a) models are being considered 10 or more days out and b) when wish-casting is detected/suspected.

        • Mike November 29, 2017 at 5:55 pm - Reply

          What’s up Johnny Rain Cloud? It’s cool to wish cast. Bring on the SNOW☃️

        • terry November 29, 2017 at 6:07 pm - Reply

          Poof Alert canceled please try again later .

          • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 6:38 pm - Reply

            Cold, dry air lacking in moisture + not being in the right place again and again and again = POOF ALERT + Wish-casting. Sorry Terry

            • terry November 29, 2017 at 6:45 pm - Reply

              not 18 to 23 inches of snow

              • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 7:19 pm

                Terry, you are correct, definitely not 18 to 23 inches of snow. More like 1.8 to 2.3 inches…..

              • terry November 29, 2017 at 7:42 pm

                Blueto that’s a typo I meant I say 18 to 23 inches of snow this. Sorry to get your hopes up.

        • BSMike November 29, 2017 at 7:14 pm - Reply

          Lmao

      • Brad November 29, 2017 at 5:34 pm - Reply

        Should the trend stay this way through the second week of Dec it would be interesting to see.. especially my snowflake contest pick was Dec 17th

      • terry November 29, 2017 at 6:05 pm - Reply

        you heard it !

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 6:18 pm - Reply

      That’s quite a Nebraska/Iowa snow. Barely making it into south KC metro if it verifies.
      But could give us our first 3 inch snow in 3 yrs !? Bring it !!

      • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 6:44 pm - Reply

        Richard, I respect your commentary. However, I must point out that this storm is already way north. How much further north and east do you think it will be in a few short days??? Three inches of snow from this in my humble opinion is fantasy….

        • Richard November 29, 2017 at 7:14 pm - Reply

          Agreed. But Gary said it has his attention.

          • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 7:20 pm - Reply

            That’s ok – an event in Nebraska and Iowa is a meteorological concern, but not a threat here. Great for stirring up interest on the blog.

      • terry November 29, 2017 at 7:18 pm - Reply

        I hope so richard

  20. Supercell November 29, 2017 at 5:17 pm - Reply

    Floodl3 is correct on December. December 1989 included the coldest recorded temperature in KC history at -23 zero and included a day where the high temperature was only -8. So how did the rest of the winter go? KC went rest of winter and didn’t get close to going below zero again. Arctic blast of historic level came in just before Christmas and no real arctic air returned. Maybe the moral to this story is don’t root for a cold December:

    December 1989: Avg high for month 31 degrees; Avg low for month 11 degrees. Lowest temp -23. Snow 5″

    January 1990: Avg high for month 48 degrees; Avg low for month 28 degrees. Lowest temp 15 (that’s it). Snow 1″

    Feb 1990: Avg high for month 46 degrees; Avg low for month 26 degrees. Lowest temp 12. Snow 1″

    March 1990: Avg high for month 53 degrees; Avg low for month 36 degrees. Lowest temp 12. Snow 9″

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 6:26 pm - Reply

      They say it can never get too cold to snow. But here in Dec ’89 it did.
      Rather there just was not any moisture with it.
      Alaska, Canada, northern plains get very, very cold, and they STILL get a lot of snow. Not sure why

      • Richard November 29, 2017 at 6:28 pm - Reply

        * here in Dec ’89 it did get too cold to snow very much

  21. Dwight November 29, 2017 at 6:19 pm - Reply

    Gary, Thanks for all the hard work on the winter forecast.
    I’m really curious: how have the actual snowfall amounts compared to the forecasted amounts? I would like to see that going back as far as you have been making snowfall predictions.
    I have a feeling that the two years where we hit over 35 inches that you may not have forecasted that much and the amounts (especially the 44 inch year) surprised us.
    Thanks

  22. Bobbie November 29, 2017 at 6:43 pm - Reply

    The big storms are always 10 days away.

    • Anonymous November 29, 2017 at 7:05 pm - Reply

      If you say so

    • Richard November 29, 2017 at 7:16 pm - Reply

      I’ll beat terry to this one by saying lol 😄

    • Bluetooth November 29, 2017 at 7:23 pm - Reply

      Say it aint so Bobbie!!

  23. Nicholas November 30, 2017 at 12:24 am - Reply

    it never gets too cold to snow, but the coldest temperatures that any area gets( the coldest of the cold) is usually if not always during the arrival of an arctic area of high pressure so most places you go, there coldest weather will be dry, that is why it is not uncommon for the south to have freezing temps, but when they do they are usually too far away from the frontal zones to have precip, and there for any snow to go with the cold, and that is also why further north they can have lots of snow with lower temps by our standards( as they are usually deeper in the colder air so even if they are close to a frontal zone, there temps can still be low by our standards, but even there, thier coldest nights are dry as well.

  24. Richard November 30, 2017 at 8:17 am - Reply
  25. Lary Gezak November 30, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    EURO ensemble snowfall depth has a max of 8 inches by Wednesday the 6th…

    https://weather.us/forecast/4387990-gladstone/ensemble/euro/snow

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