The 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

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Here is your winter forecast as of November 27, 2017.  As we publish this tonight, please go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog over there, and join in the conversation. Let us know if you have any questions at all.  A very complex weather pattern has set up, and it is cycling regularly. We have likely already started the second cycle of this years pattern, but we will confirm in the next two weeks.

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According to the LRC, a unique pattern sets up each fall.  This pattern is as unique as any pattern I have ever seen.  We are trying to crack the code and accurately predict the future. Our team has learned a lot in recent years.  The take aways for Kansas City:

  • Expect below average precipitation, liquid equivalent; drier than average
  • Expect near to slightly above average snowfall
  • Expect below average temperatures.  December and February will likely be the coldest months.

Thank you for reading the winter forecast, and for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern. Let us know if you have any questions, or add in your own insight ifyou would like. Have a great day. The next blog will be issued Wednesday morning.

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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I agree with the more Red Flag Warnings ghan Winter Weather products. Storm on the 6th went poof

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yeah, I’m just not seeing it this winter. A lot of dry fronts with nothing behind them. Guess we’ll have to wait til spring before we get any precip again. Sorry snow lovers, I just think the trough is gonna keep all the snow in the Ohio valley. If you want snow, go to Chicago points east. I mentioned these concerns awhile back and I still think that’s what will happen.

Total Snowfall: 8.5 inches

We will make history for snow futility this year.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Here is a little a nugget to chew on in regards to snow in the month of December (1888-2010). How much snow do you think will fall in December? Will it be one of the snowiest Decembers ever?

        DECEMBER MONTHLY (1888-2010)
Amount (inches) Year

16.6 1961
16.4 1918
15.1 2009
14.8 1945
13.2 1983
11.9 1987
11.8 1904, 1914, 2000
11.7 1978
       
DECEMBER DAILY (1888-2010)
Amount (inches) Day/Year

9.7 14th/1987
8.5 5th/1942
7.8 22nd/1961
7.7 31st/1978
7.5 9th/1944
7.4 23rd/1918
7.3 27th/1904, 7th/2005
7.2 3rd/1898
7.0 13th/2000

Mike

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary just said chances of a white Christmas in KC are higher this year

stl78
Guest
stl78

Where r u located james?

James
Guest
James

Sheboygan WI

James Coulson
Guest

So Gary it seems like you expecting the above normal snow in Michigan and points East or at least Precip wise? Wisconsin looks dry or high chances of dry conditions, or drier than normal? That is different than are fall has been, we have been pretty wet or we were for a period through October into early Nov. It has since become a less active pattern here in East Central Wisc. Its been more active northwest and South. Quite a bit of snow up north already in November. I am just curious as a Snow Removal Business what your thoughts… Read more »

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

I saw some interesting info in another local blog about the avg. first and last date for one inch of snow in the KC area and according to them the “snow season” on avg. has shrunk by 27 days since the year 2000. but as for this year, December will be the big test, the next four weeks or so, we will find out what this pattern is capable of snow wise. If the snow doesn’t pan out, then when it warms up between the colder periods this winter, and early spring, it could be another cold season where it… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Gary, so sorry I have not participated due to ongoing problems with posting, plus I’m up in Nebraska away on business. As I previously indicated, I think the deep trough is key. It appeared around the 24th-29th of October. We had cooler than average temps then thru the 1st half of November. It wasn’t until after my Birthday in mid November that we began to pull out of the “lower than average” temps. The vorts and surface lows have been tracking to the east on up into the western UP region into Canada. Based on the return of the deep… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Andrew weather center concurs there will be a colder than average pattern in mid December

https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2017/11/stratospheric-warming-event-precludes.html

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary

I am sure you and Jeff used the lrc for your PERSONAL predictions for the winter forecast snowfall.
Did the rest of the wx team use the lrc too ? ( Lindsay, Nicole, Gerard )

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary

We really need a DOWN ARROW on this blog.
A few of us have asked for this over the last year.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Richard…you sure are demanding on this blog…Gary, put avatar on, Gary, put down arrow, etc etc.

terry
Guest
terry

Gary When do you think you see our first snow event here ?

Richard
Guest
Richard

terry

I think Gary said he picked Dec 8 for the first inch in the snowflake contest.

Brad
Guest
Brad

Rhiannon alley picked the 8th of December i think, Lezak said December 9th

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

KC has never had 3 consecutive winters with less than 10 inches of snow since records began, so climatology is on the side of all the predictions I’ve seen from local meteorologists this fall. Then again, there can be a first time for everything. Let’s hope for snow lovers this winter isn’t that first time.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

GFS just got a lot more active going into December, couple snow chances showing up now. Some folks are already talking drought just because Gary says drier Winter, big mistake thinking the winter pattern will unfold exactly as the summer variation will. I’m seeing a lot of fronts that will be lighting up with storms once we get better moisture supply. And Kurt, come on brother and pick your self up by bootstraps and improve that attitude! Your going to be fine this year up there, you’ll get some big rains you missed on very nearby last year. It wasn’t… Read more »

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Never a better time to invest in a new garden hose, in my opinion…..

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc

My observations: There’s been 2 predominant patterns this fall: ridging from California to around Montana, with troughing over the Great Lakes; the other is zonal flow lacking significant storms over most of the US. Neither pattern is conducive for KC getting much snow this winter. The ridge/trough setup could bring us some small clipper systems if they don’t stay to our NE, while zonal flow could also bring us light snow or ice events if arctic air is already in place. Neither pattern is one that would bring us any major snowfalls this winter. The AO just had a major… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

12-14 inches would be far more than last year, and more than the past three years. So you too are predicting more snow this year….awesome!

Roger
Guest
Roger

Hope some rain/snow happens before the huge vortex takes over for 10-20 days. Otherwise it looks bleak.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Tough to get excited about possibility of snow after the last few years. Here south of Lawrence, I don’t anticipate a lot as we seem to be on the Western edge. If we could somehow get to the 13″ mark, that would be a vast improvement.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Yep, my NW Lawrence area didn’t even receive 3″ total for last Winter.

So, where were the Oak mites this year? Will estimate we had less than 5% of what was experienced in ’16.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Gary, the GFS has a snow on Dec 6th would that relate to the Oct 14th part of the pattern or is it most likely fantasy or something else?

Mike
Guest
Mike

Clint the EURO also showed snow on 12/5 and 12/7.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Is it the same set-up as the GFS

Mike
Guest
Mike

EURO 12/7 is close to what the new GFS 12Z shows on 12/9 and 12/10, quite a few days out and as everyone is quick to point out the models haven’t been accurate at all.

Kathy Greuter
Guest
Kathy Greuter

Hi Gary and team…
When you say colder than normal, could you be more specific? Last year I didn’t even wear my heavy coat. I guess it’s all relative.

I am asking, because your Weather One app long range is calling for mid 30’s thru January, so is that considered colder than normal?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Here’s a link to “daily high/low temperature normals” for Topeka. I use it for a reference even though it doesn’t really pertain to the climate here north of Manhattan. There should be a similar chart for KC.
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/climate/Topeka_temp_daily_high_low_normals.pdf

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

How much snow do you expect for Indianapolis area this winter? I notice it’s in the colder area and one of the few areas with adequate moisture.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I’ve got 2 commercial Toro snow blowers for sale

stl78
Guest
stl78

Obviously this won’t b correct but it does appear 2nd half of dec will b colder and possibly wet

Nicholas
Guest
Nicholas

Well at least the wind is blowing so it is doing “something” out there, but I think Gary should have went with 21 inches even and had a blackjack contest for the winter, 😛 over or under 21. 😛

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Looking at the one chart, does this mean we’re gonna get a drought next year?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary

As the lrc creator could you use an identity photo or something to go with your name ?
So we can see your replies better on here.
When it gets busy here, its easy to miss your comments.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

He’s going to be bummed out with another low snowfall winter

terry
Guest
terry

Both of you think that’s me that’s very funny . Maybe In your neighborhood but not my neighborhood i think Gary’s 21.5 snow amounts is pretty good And I’ve always said that I thought we could get this winter 18 to 23 inches !

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

It’s someone that mimics you Terry. You’re very optimistic. By the end of December the picture will be clearer whether this is a dry pattern with low snow or a dry pattern with snow.

Maybe the storms can get energized in the upcoming cycles, but for now nothing showing up through mid December

terry
Guest
terry

Well you’re wrong

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

That’s not very nice and we will see who is wrong on March 1st

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Lol

Richard
Guest
Richard

Lol ? Now now terry be good

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I think it’s the northwest, southern Missouri into the Ohio valley and Great Lakes due to lake effect and interior New England. The artic blasts will surpress the storm track further south and east

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I predict 6 to 11 inches here in St Joseph and developing drought into spring and summer. Dryness has been ongoing over a year up here

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Time to buy new garden hose, Kurt…..

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Already stocked up last summer on new hoses. Just being realistic as winter months are normally dry and when the troughs do come through they will be pushed further south and east than October from the cold air. Dry powder snow and not many opportunities

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Kurt, you are begging for a poof alert with totals like that…..

stl78
Guest
stl78

I think predicting snowfall amts is like finding a needle in a hay stack but i would like to see his thoughts on hot spots

stl78
Guest
stl78

Lmao…i wasnt looking for a number. Im just curious about his hot spot locations

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

stl78,
I’m going to go way out on Bill’s proverbial limb and predict more snow in S.E. Mn. this winter than K.C.

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

What do you consider “winter”? December 1-February 1?

Or do you use the winter solstice (~Dec 21) to spring equinox (~Mar 20)?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Meteorologically speaking, Winter is defined as Dec-1 to the last day in Feb. Astronomically speaking, it is from the winter solstice to the spring equinox.

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

Robert,

Meteorologically speaking, Winter is defined as Dec-1 to the last day in February. Astronomically speaking, it is defined from the winter solstice until the spring equinox.

RobertCali
Guest
RobertCali

Thanks. I wonder which Gary uses for verification of his forecast?

stl78
Guest
stl78

My guess is jack squat..lol

Rod
Guest
Rod

Gary I mentioned a couple of times in previous blogs asking if you could do a regional snowfall prediction for neighboring cities. I live near Columbia & have family in Springfield, MO & St Louis. Could you please make a prediction for these areas or at least Columbia, MO. I really enjoyed watching your winter special on line, great work!! Thanks Rod Ashland, MO

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Looking forward to reporting my snowfall totals from north Olathe this winter. 😉

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Well there is good news here for snow lovers and snow haters. Its very hard to predict total snow for the season. Gary has been close before and he’s been WAAAAAY off before. So really, its an educated guess….but nobody really knows.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Monday evening to you sir!!

Thanks so much for the detailed write up; I can only imagine the amount of work this took to put together so thanks again for sharing with everyone!!!!

Have a great evening!!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Jason
Guest
Jason

What do you think for Lawrence Bill? Should be less than KC probably. Maybe 13”?

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Jason:

Happy Tuesday!!

I have thought 13-15 for Lawrence with a 40% chance we get more and below 20% chance we get less. I think it will be tough for us at times as we wind up with 2-4 and KC East could get 6-10 or something like that.

By April though, I think we will be looking at 13-15 for Lawrence and the surrounding areas.

Have a great Tuesday!! Could sure use a bit of a drink!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

terry
Guest
terry

Gary for this winter what do you think our biggest snow Event in Inches could be or snowstorm?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

no way to know that

Weatherdancer
Guest
Weatherdancer

Gary,
By chance could you give date ranges for the stormiest stretches

Richard
Guest
Richard

Would be nice but he probably won’t

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Gary does in fact identify what he believes to be the more active stretches every year. I am guessing he is waiting a little bit longer to get a better handle on the cycle length and pattern

Clint
Guest
Clint

I would like to know this as well

terry
Guest
terry

Gary I’m going out of town on December 15th to 17th To Branson for Christmas ? what’s your thinking maybe for that weekend ?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

According to Accuweather, that would depend on how quickly the dip in the jet stream drifts east.
Here’s a map of their jet stream forecast for December 8-14
comment image

Richard
Guest
Richard

He said 21inches. But right before that he said near to below average precipitation. I guess that is 21 inches.
Grard 14
Nicole 20
Jeff 19
Gary 21.5
Lindsay ? I forget !
Wx team average 17.5 I think ?

.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Oh brother
Grard ? Sorry Gerard !

Brad
Guest
Brad

Linsey said 16 for the winter

Roger
Guest
Roger

It will feel like quite a shock. Especially when Denver set their all-time November high temperature today!

stl78
Guest
stl78

Gary, what about for my location in se minnesota? Im guessing to my ne around thr great lakes will b one this yr

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

😑

Larry
Guest
Larry

The small white type on a blue background makes it too difficult to read, especially for older persons or those with less than perfect eyesight.. There may well be a very valid reason for always doing this, but as before, I gave up after only a few lines.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Exactly. I am old and vision is not great with cataracts forming so I don’t even try.
This whole blog site is much harder to read than the blog on kshb.
But i come here because this is where the comments are. Its a ghost town over there.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

larry, CTRL plus mouse wheel makes it bigger…thats what I did.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Gary, have u and the team identified possible hot spots? Thx for all u guys do!

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Second comment!!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
I was hoping for more snow, warmer temps! I guess anything will be better than last three years! Be good ice fishing weather however! I’ll send you some more pics this winter. No snow on ponds, with cold weather makes ice fast!!! Thanks for what you and your team does!
Michael

numb3rsguy
Guest
numb3rsguy

First comment! Wohoo!