The 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

/The 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

The 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

Here is your winter forecast as of November 27, 2017.  As we publish this tonight, please go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog over there, and join in the conversation. Let us know if you have any questions at all.  A very complex weather pattern has set up, and it is cycling regularly. We have likely already started the second cycle of this years pattern, but we will confirm in the next two weeks.

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According to the LRC, a unique pattern sets up each fall.  This pattern is as unique as any pattern I have ever seen.  We are trying to crack the code and accurately predict the future. Our team has learned a lot in recent years.  The take aways for Kansas City:

  • Expect below average precipitation, liquid equivalent; drier than average
  • Expect near to slightly above average snowfall
  • Expect below average temperatures.  December and February will likely be the coldest months.

Thank you for reading the winter forecast, and for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern. Let us know if you have any questions, or add in your own insight ifyou would like. Have a great day. The next blog will be issued Wednesday morning.

2017-11-29T17:59:15+00:00November 27th, 2017|General|105 Comments

105 Comments

  1. numb3rsguy November 27, 2017 at 5:57 pm - Reply

    First comment! Wohoo!

  2. Michael Casteel November 27, 2017 at 6:04 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    I was hoping for more snow, warmer temps! I guess anything will be better than last three years! Be good ice fishing weather however! I’ll send you some more pics this winter. No snow on ponds, with cold weather makes ice fast!!! Thanks for what you and your team does!
    Michael

  3. Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    Second comment!!

  4. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 6:14 pm - Reply

    Gary, have u and the team identified possible hot spots? Thx for all u guys do!

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 6:21 pm - Reply

      I am still working on the true hot spots for this winter. But, Kansas City is not near one.

      Gary

      • Craig November 27, 2017 at 7:06 pm - Reply

        Gary, you’re crazy to think 21″ of snow out of this pattern. No way. Not even close.

        • Anonymous November 27, 2017 at 8:30 pm - Reply

          Yes way !

        • Lary Gezak November 27, 2017 at 11:15 pm - Reply

          Gary is the meteorologist here. He may know what he is talking about.

          -Lary Gezak

  5. Larry November 27, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    The small white type on a blue background makes it too difficult to read, especially for older persons or those with less than perfect eyesight.. There may well be a very valid reason for always doing this, but as before, I gave up after only a few lines.

    • Richard November 27, 2017 at 7:42 pm - Reply

      Exactly. I am old and vision is not great with cataracts forming so I don’t even try.
      This whole blog site is much harder to read than the blog on kshb.
      But i come here because this is where the comments are. Its a ghost town over there.

    • Heat Miser November 27, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

      larry, CTRL plus mouse wheel makes it bigger…thats what I did.

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 8:37 pm - Reply

      Yeah, I could probably clean it up a bit.

      Gary

      • Richard November 27, 2017 at 10:10 pm - Reply

        This doesn’t seem like Gary Lezak
        Never seen him say Yeah.

        Definitely not Gary

        • Richard November 27, 2017 at 10:20 pm - Reply

          Or maybe it is 😄
          Maybe its Gary. Maybe not
          Maybe we will get 21 inches of snow. Maybe not 😄

  6. NoBeachHere November 27, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    😑

  7. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

    Gary, what about for my location in se minnesota? Im guessing to my ne around thr great lakes will b one this yr

  8. Roger November 27, 2017 at 6:50 pm - Reply

    It will feel like quite a shock. Especially when Denver set their all-time November high temperature today!

  9. Richard November 27, 2017 at 6:59 pm - Reply

    He said 21inches. But right before that he said near to below average precipitation. I guess that is 21 inches.
    Grard 14
    Nicole 20
    Jeff 19
    Gary 21.5
    Lindsay ? I forget !
    Wx team average 17.5 I think ?

    .

    • Richard November 27, 2017 at 7:01 pm - Reply

      Oh brother
      Grard ? Sorry Gerard !

      • Brad November 27, 2017 at 7:05 pm - Reply

        Linsey said 16 for the winter

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 8:36 pm - Reply

      The team average actually comes in at 18.1″.

      Gary

  10. terry November 27, 2017 at 7:05 pm - Reply

    Gary I’m going out of town on December 15th to 17th To Branson for Christmas ? what’s your thinking maybe for that weekend ?

  11. Weatherdancer November 27, 2017 at 7:13 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    By chance could you give date ranges for the stormiest stretches

    • Richard November 27, 2017 at 7:44 pm - Reply

      Would be nice but he probably won’t

      • JoeK November 27, 2017 at 8:33 pm - Reply

        Gary does in fact identify what he believes to be the more active stretches every year. I am guessing he is waiting a little bit longer to get a better handle on the cycle length and pattern

    • Clint November 27, 2017 at 8:19 pm - Reply

      I would like to know this as well

  12. terry November 27, 2017 at 7:24 pm - Reply

    Gary for this winter what do you think our biggest snow Event in Inches could be or snowstorm?

    • Heat Miser November 27, 2017 at 8:04 pm - Reply

      no way to know that

  13. Bill in Lawrence November 27, 2017 at 7:43 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Monday evening to you sir!!

    Thanks so much for the detailed write up; I can only imagine the amount of work this took to put together so thanks again for sharing with everyone!!!!

    Have a great evening!!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Jason November 27, 2017 at 10:08 pm - Reply

      What do you think for Lawrence Bill? Should be less than KC probably. Maybe 13”?

      • Bill in Lawrence November 28, 2017 at 7:09 am - Reply

        Jason:

        Happy Tuesday!!

        I have thought 13-15 for Lawrence with a 40% chance we get more and below 20% chance we get less. I think it will be tough for us at times as we wind up with 2-4 and KC East could get 6-10 or something like that.

        By April though, I think we will be looking at 13-15 for Lawrence and the surrounding areas.

        Have a great Tuesday!! Could sure use a bit of a drink!!

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  14. Heat Miser November 27, 2017 at 8:05 pm - Reply

    Well there is good news here for snow lovers and snow haters. Its very hard to predict total snow for the season. Gary has been close before and he’s been WAAAAAY off before. So really, its an educated guess….but nobody really knows.

  15. Emaw November 27, 2017 at 8:09 pm - Reply

    Looking forward to reporting my snowfall totals from north Olathe this winter. 😉

  16. Rod November 27, 2017 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    Gary I mentioned a couple of times in previous blogs asking if you could do a regional snowfall prediction for neighboring cities. I live near Columbia & have family in Springfield, MO & St Louis. Could you please make a prediction for these areas or at least Columbia, MO. I really enjoyed watching your winter special on line, great work!! Thanks Rod Ashland, MO

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 8:35 pm - Reply

      Rod,

      I do think this is a great idea. Let me work on it and see what we can come up with.

      Gary

  17. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    My guess is jack squat..lol

  18. RobertCali November 27, 2017 at 8:35 pm - Reply

    What do you consider “winter”? December 1-February 1?

    Or do you use the winter solstice (~Dec 21) to spring equinox (~Mar 20)?

    • Anonymous November 28, 2017 at 7:09 am - Reply

      Meteorologically speaking, Winter is defined as Dec-1 to the last day in Feb. Astronomically speaking, it is from the winter solstice to the spring equinox.

    • numb3rsguy November 28, 2017 at 7:11 am - Reply

      Robert,

      Meteorologically speaking, Winter is defined as Dec-1 to the last day in February. Astronomically speaking, it is defined from the winter solstice until the spring equinox.

      • RobertCali November 28, 2017 at 8:39 am - Reply

        Thanks. I wonder which Gary uses for verification of his forecast?

  19. Emaw November 27, 2017 at 8:47 pm - Reply

    stl78,
    I’m going to go way out on Bill’s proverbial limb and predict more snow in S.E. Mn. this winter than K.C.

  20. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 8:59 pm - Reply

    Lmao…i wasnt looking for a number. Im just curious about his hot spot locations

  21. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 9:01 pm - Reply

    I think predicting snowfall amts is like finding a needle in a hay stack but i would like to see his thoughts on hot spots

  22. Kurt November 27, 2017 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    I predict 6 to 11 inches here in St Joseph and developing drought into spring and summer. Dryness has been ongoing over a year up here

    • Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 9:08 pm - Reply

      Time to buy new garden hose, Kurt…..

      • Kurt November 27, 2017 at 9:12 pm - Reply

        Already stocked up last summer on new hoses. Just being realistic as winter months are normally dry and when the troughs do come through they will be pushed further south and east than October from the cold air. Dry powder snow and not many opportunities

    • Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 9:08 pm - Reply

      Kurt, you are begging for a poof alert with totals like that…..

  23. Kurt November 27, 2017 at 9:06 pm - Reply

    I think it’s the northwest, southern Missouri into the Ohio valley and Great Lakes due to lake effect and interior New England. The artic blasts will surpress the storm track further south and east

  24. Anonymous November 27, 2017 at 9:41 pm - Reply

    Lol

    • Richard November 27, 2017 at 10:13 pm - Reply

      Lol ? Now now terry be good

  25. Kurt November 27, 2017 at 10:24 pm - Reply

    He’s going to be bummed out with another low snowfall winter

    • terry November 27, 2017 at 10:35 pm - Reply

      Both of you think that’s me that’s very funny . Maybe In your neighborhood but not my neighborhood i think Gary’s 21.5 snow amounts is pretty good And I’ve always said that I thought we could get this winter 18 to 23 inches !

      • Kurt November 28, 2017 at 3:43 am - Reply

        It’s someone that mimics you Terry. You’re very optimistic. By the end of December the picture will be clearer whether this is a dry pattern with low snow or a dry pattern with snow.

        Maybe the storms can get energized in the upcoming cycles, but for now nothing showing up through mid December

        • terry November 28, 2017 at 4:57 am - Reply

          Well you’re wrong

          • Kurt November 28, 2017 at 6:31 am - Reply

            That’s not very nice and we will see who is wrong on March 1st

  26. Richard November 27, 2017 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    Gary

    As the lrc creator could you use an identity photo or something to go with your name ?
    So we can see your replies better on here.
    When it gets busy here, its easy to miss your comments.

  27. Snow Miser November 27, 2017 at 10:32 pm - Reply

    Looking at the one chart, does this mean we’re gonna get a drought next year?

  28. Nicholas November 27, 2017 at 10:55 pm - Reply

    Well at least the wind is blowing so it is doing “something” out there, but I think Gary should have went with 21 inches even and had a blackjack contest for the winter, 😛 over or under 21. 😛

  29. stl78 November 28, 2017 at 5:57 am - Reply

    Obviously this won’t b correct but it does appear 2nd half of dec will b colder and possibly wet

  30. NoBeachHere November 28, 2017 at 7:22 am - Reply

    I’ve got 2 commercial Toro snow blowers for sale

  31. Anonymous November 28, 2017 at 7:37 am - Reply

    How much snow do you expect for Indianapolis area this winter? I notice it’s in the colder area and one of the few areas with adequate moisture.

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

      I am favoring above average snowfall and colder than average for Indy.

      Gary

      • Richard November 28, 2017 at 9:14 am - Reply

        Gary

        Can you put a symbol or a photo with your name ?

  32. Kathy Greuter November 28, 2017 at 10:02 am - Reply

    Hi Gary and team…
    When you say colder than normal, could you be more specific? Last year I didn’t even wear my heavy coat. I guess it’s all relative.

    I am asking, because your Weather One app long range is calling for mid 30’s thru January, so is that considered colder than normal?

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 10:26 am - Reply

      Those 1Weather app forecasts will now be updated within a week as we identify and verify the cycle. I see a couple of very cold weeks in the second half of December coming our way.

      Now, did you seriously not wear a jacket when it was 9 below zero last December?

      Gary

      • Miss Jess November 28, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

        I was at the Titans/Chiefs game when it was 1 degree at kickoff. I’ve never been so cold in my entire life!!!

    • KS Jones November 28, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

      Here’s a link to “daily high/low temperature normals” for Topeka. I use it for a reference even though it doesn’t really pertain to the climate here north of Manhattan. There should be a similar chart for KC.
      http://www.weather.gov/media/top/climate/Topeka_temp_daily_high_low_normals.pdf

  33. Clint November 28, 2017 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Gary, the GFS has a snow on Dec 6th would that relate to the Oct 14th part of the pattern or is it most likely fantasy or something else?

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 10:38 am - Reply

      That snow on the latest GFS has my attention for sure. It is being caused by being in a zone between the northern and southern branches. Confidence is very low in this set up at the moment.

      Gary

    • Mike November 28, 2017 at 10:41 am - Reply

      Clint the EURO also showed snow on 12/5 and 12/7.

      • Clint November 28, 2017 at 10:48 am - Reply

        Is it the same set-up as the GFS

        • Mike November 28, 2017 at 10:54 am - Reply

          EURO 12/7 is close to what the new GFS 12Z shows on 12/9 and 12/10, quite a few days out and as everyone is quick to point out the models haven’t been accurate at all.

          • Gary November 28, 2017 at 11:00 am - Reply

            The Euro was out to lunch, has been out to lunch all season thus far. Watch it turn around on this next run or two.

            Gary

        • Gary November 28, 2017 at 11:01 am - Reply

          The latest GFS is beginning to fit the pattern, but still way out there. The chances of snow showing up are multiple, in other words two to three decent chances on this run, and very cold. It is still not quite what it will look like.

          The Panic Period Is Likely Finally Over.

          Gary

          • Kai November 28, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

            Gary, that is what you should headline the next blog: The Panic Period is Finally Over.

  34. Jason November 28, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Tough to get excited about possibility of snow after the last few years. Here south of Lawrence, I don’t anticipate a lot as we seem to be on the Western edge. If we could somehow get to the 13″ mark, that would be a vast improvement.

    • j-ox November 28, 2017 at 1:55 pm - Reply

      Yep, my NW Lawrence area didn’t even receive 3″ total for last Winter.

      So, where were the Oak mites this year? Will estimate we had less than 5% of what was experienced in ’16.

  35. Roger November 28, 2017 at 11:14 am - Reply

    Hope some rain/snow happens before the huge vortex takes over for 10-20 days. Otherwise it looks bleak.

  36. sedsinkc November 28, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    My observations: There’s been 2 predominant patterns this fall: ridging from California to around Montana, with troughing over the Great Lakes; the other is zonal flow lacking significant storms over most of the US. Neither pattern is conducive for KC getting much snow this winter. The ridge/trough setup could bring us some small clipper systems if they don’t stay to our NE, while zonal flow could also bring us light snow or ice events if arctic air is already in place. Neither pattern is one that would bring us any major snowfalls this winter. The AO just had a major negative incursion earlier this month, and it brought us zilch. Nada. With all the warm weather in the last week, November is going to wind up close to average temperature-wise. So for KC I expect near average temperatures overall this winter, with big swings between cold and warm, and less than average snowfall of 12 to 14 inches and below average liquid precipitation equivalent. Storm track such as it is favors Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for sweet spot of snow, along with northern Rockies/Cascades.

    • Heat Miser November 28, 2017 at 4:07 pm - Reply

      12-14 inches would be far more than last year, and more than the past three years. So you too are predicting more snow this year….awesome!

  37. REAL HUMEDUDE November 28, 2017 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    GFS just got a lot more active going into December, couple snow chances showing up now. Some folks are already talking drought just because Gary says drier Winter, big mistake thinking the winter pattern will unfold exactly as the summer variation will. I’m seeing a lot of fronts that will be lighting up with storms once we get better moisture supply. And Kurt, come on brother and pick your self up by bootstraps and improve that attitude! Your going to be fine this year up there, you’ll get some big rains you missed on very nearby last year. It wasn’t a total wasteland up there in 2017, you were just a very small unfavorable spot that missed most of the big storms. You had floods on either side of you multiple times, just very unlucky which happens. The good thing is you paid your dues last year, some body else will get missed this year ( like me lol).

    • Bluetooth November 28, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

      Never a better time to invest in a new garden hose, in my opinion…..

  38. sedsinkc November 28, 2017 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    KC has never had 3 consecutive winters with less than 10 inches of snow since records began, so climatology is on the side of all the predictions I’ve seen from local meteorologists this fall. Then again, there can be a first time for everything. Let’s hope for snow lovers this winter isn’t that first time.

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      Seds,

      December will be a huge test for the potential of an historic third year in a row below 10″. Obviously I think otherwise.

      Gary

  39. terry November 28, 2017 at 4:34 pm - Reply

    Gary When do you think you see our first snow event here ?

    • Richard November 28, 2017 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      terry

      I think Gary said he picked Dec 8 for the first inch in the snowflake contest.

      • Brad November 28, 2017 at 5:44 pm - Reply

        Rhiannon alley picked the 8th of December i think, Lezak said December 9th

  40. Richard November 28, 2017 at 4:50 pm - Reply

    Gary

    We really need a DOWN ARROW on this blog.
    A few of us have asked for this over the last year.

    • Heat Miser November 28, 2017 at 6:49 pm - Reply

      Richard…you sure are demanding on this blog…Gary, put avatar on, Gary, put down arrow, etc etc.

  41. Richard November 28, 2017 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    Gary

    I am sure you and Jeff used the lrc for your PERSONAL predictions for the winter forecast snowfall.
    Did the rest of the wx team use the lrc too ? ( Lindsay, Nicole, Gerard )

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 8:54 pm - Reply

      I am not sure what they used. They are all still learning more about the LRC.

      Gary

  42. Richard November 28, 2017 at 6:28 pm - Reply

    Andrew weather center concurs there will be a colder than average pattern in mid December

    https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2017/11/stratospheric-warming-event-precludes.html

  43. Rockdoc November 28, 2017 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    Gary, so sorry I have not participated due to ongoing problems with posting, plus I’m up in Nebraska away on business.

    As I previously indicated, I think the deep trough is key. It appeared around the 24th-29th of October. We had cooler than average temps then thru the 1st half of November. It wasn’t until after my Birthday in mid November that we began to pull out of the “lower than average” temps. The vorts and surface lows have been tracking to the east on up into the western UP region into Canada.

    Based on the return of the deep trough around the 8th to 10th of December this would suggest the cycle is running about 45+ days give or take a few days as you indicated.

    Lots of colder air up in the arctic waiting to spill southwards. Current model runs and Euro temp anomalies suggest we could be in for body shocker late next week. This coming weekend will be last chance for planting bulbs, buttoning up the yards and hanging Christmas lights. As dry as it has been, you may want to give your plants/trees a good, deep drink.

    Cheers 😊

  44. Nicholas November 28, 2017 at 8:59 pm - Reply

    I saw some interesting info in another local blog about the avg. first and last date for one inch of snow in the KC area and according to them the “snow season” on avg. has shrunk by 27 days since the year 2000. but as for this year, December will be the big test, the next four weeks or so, we will find out what this pattern is capable of snow wise. If the snow doesn’t pan out, then when it warms up between the colder periods this winter, and early spring, it could be another cold season where it seems there are more red flag warnings than winter weather warnings/advisories.

  45. James Coulson November 28, 2017 at 8:59 pm - Reply

    So Gary it seems like you expecting the above normal snow in Michigan and points East or at least Precip wise? Wisconsin looks dry or high chances of dry conditions, or drier than normal? That is different than are fall has been, we have been pretty wet or we were for a period through October into early Nov. It has since become a less active pattern here in East Central Wisc. Its been more active northwest and South. Quite a bit of snow up north already in November. I am just curious as a Snow Removal Business what your thoughts are for us. I love following the LRC cycle with you as it develops every fall very interesting!!

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 9:44 pm - Reply

      James,

      Thanks, I think there will be many snow removal opportunities for your area. The next three weeks will be highly important. That big trough will form, then retrogress west which should be able to produce a few winter storms. We are still learning a bit more.

      Gary

  46. stl78 November 28, 2017 at 9:33 pm - Reply

    Where r u located james?

    • James November 29, 2017 at 7:07 am - Reply

      Sheboygan WI

  47. Mr. Pete November 28, 2017 at 10:23 pm - Reply

    Gary just said chances of a white Christmas in KC are higher this year

    • Gary November 28, 2017 at 11:30 pm - Reply

      Pete,

      You are the 100th comment of the day. Congratulations!!!

      Gary

  48. Mike November 29, 2017 at 5:40 am - Reply

    Here is a little a nugget to chew on in regards to snow in the month of December (1888-2010). How much snow do you think will fall in December? Will it be one of the snowiest Decembers ever?

            DECEMBER MONTHLY (1888-2010)
    Amount (inches) Year

    16.6 1961
    16.4 1918
    15.1 2009
    14.8 1945
    13.2 1983
    11.9 1987
    11.8 1904, 1914, 2000
    11.7 1978
           
    DECEMBER DAILY (1888-2010)
    Amount (inches) Day/Year

    9.7 14th/1987
    8.5 5th/1942
    7.8 22nd/1961
    7.7 31st/1978
    7.5 9th/1944
    7.4 23rd/1918
    7.3 27th/1904, 7th/2005
    7.2 3rd/1898
    7.0 13th/2000

    Mike

  49. f00dl3 November 29, 2017 at 7:44 am - Reply

    I agree with the more Red Flag Warnings ghan Winter Weather products. Storm on the 6th went poof

    • Three7s November 29, 2017 at 7:56 am - Reply

      Yeah, I’m just not seeing it this winter. A lot of dry fronts with nothing behind them. Guess we’ll have to wait til spring before we get any precip again. Sorry snow lovers, I just think the trough is gonna keep all the snow in the Ohio valley. If you want snow, go to Chicago points east. I mentioned these concerns awhile back and I still think that’s what will happen.

      Total Snowfall: 8.5 inches

      We will make history for snow futility this year.

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