An Introduction Into This Years LRC

/An Introduction Into This Years LRC

An Introduction Into This Years LRC

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Sunday: Mostly sunny with light winds. High: 65°
  • Tonight:   Clear and cool. Low: 44°
  • Monday: Mostly sunny. A near record high or maybe we will break the record of 71°.  High: 72°  South winds gusting to 30 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT at 6:30 PM:  The Wonders of Winter special will be broadcast on 41 Action News with our Winter Forecast!

An Introduction Into This Years LRC from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

This video just scratches the surface on the developing pattern. We go through the first LRC cycle which is most likely in the 45 to 51 day range.  Last night a snowstorm showed up on the 06z run. Is it fantasy of reality?

Screen Shot 2017-11-26 at 7.07.17 AM

The AO and NAO are forecast to stay neutral to negative. This will be discussed in our winter forecast that will be posted here Monday night.  This is what we want to see if you are interested in having some winter excitement and you are a weather enthusiast.

LRC Cycle 1 2017-2018 10-23This map on the left shows the pattern on October 23, and the one on the right shows the pattern on November 2nd. This part of the weather pattern brought a three week to four week stretch of colder than average temperatures. So, guess what? The chance of December being colder than average is very high. We are forecasting a cold December. Now, will it lead to above average snowfall next month? What about this winter? We will learn a lot more in the next few weeks.

LRC Cycle 1 2017-2018 11-2This has been staring us in the face for weeks now. As usual, it is easy to make too many conclusions too early. I have been trying to help you be patient.  I am somewhat excited about the winter that is about to begin.

Have a great day, and please join in the conversation on Weather2020.com tomorrow night into Tuesday as we discuss the winter forecast truth from the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2017-11-27T18:05:18+00:00 November 26th, 2017|General|57 Comments

57 Comments

  1. Mike Holm November 26, 2017 at 7:38 am - Reply

    In early October we had distinct storm systems coming through that were well defined. I’m not seeing any well-defined storms yet. The pattern doesn’t look the same as October. Could those early storms in October just be a transitional period. I’ve been following the cyclical pattern at least five years now and it seems October doesn’t relate to the rest of the cycles–most years. I’m sure you’re looking for a map that signals the start of the second cycle. Have you seen it yet?

    • Gary November 26, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

      Actually the pattern is very similar to October. The storm system approaching us this week is so closely related to October 10th.

      Gary

  2. Anonymous November 26, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Gary will tell you the same. That The models are still all over the place pattern has not yet set in stone.

  3. f00dl3 November 26, 2017 at 9:42 am - Reply

    240 hours ago we were supposed to have snow tomorrow. I wouldn’t trust the models right now.

  4. Carl November 26, 2017 at 9:54 am - Reply

    So the forecasts on the weather1 app are bogus at this point? If there is any truth to the cycling pattern, then one would expect it to have some periods of cold in December, but precipitation doesn’t seem to be there.

  5. Anonymous November 26, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

    Gary When was the last time the Ao and NAO went Negative like it’s try and see now or is going to this winter ? what year ?

    • Richard November 26, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

      terry ?
      You forgot to put your name in.
      Can you rephrase your question ? What do you mean by saying what year

    • Bluetooth November 26, 2017 at 12:49 pm - Reply

      Terry, is that you?????

  6. Snow Miser November 26, 2017 at 11:00 am - Reply

    Great video Gary, I hope you’re right about the upcoming winter.

  7. Heat Miser November 26, 2017 at 11:02 am - Reply

    Woot…exciting winter weather for a change…bring it!!!!

    • Richard November 26, 2017 at 11:19 am - Reply

      Hey Heat Miser !!

      You’re back ! Been wondering about you bud.
      Yeah, bring on the snow !! 😄👍

      • Heat Miser November 26, 2017 at 8:00 pm - Reply

        🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

  8. Rockdoc November 26, 2017 at 11:29 am - Reply

    Good Sunday Morning Gary. So funny that you pointed out those deep troughs. I noticed them back in October and went to the archives this past week to find the dates/patterns. I’ve been looking for them to return but they have yet to pop up on the models yet. I figured that the LRC cycle had to be 50+ days because the models don’t extend that far out to show the return yet. The return of the deep troughs and colder weather also ties in with a link that Richard posted yesterday showing the potential for a significant cooling of the upper layers over North America in mid to late December.

    I’ve been monitoring the December 6th/7th system and thought this just might be our first snow event, but am not convinced due to temperatures. Anyways, looking forward to your winter forecast, and more in-depth discussion here.

    PS, is there anyway that you can post video of your KSHB winter forecast on the KSHB web site? Appears that some folks in the larger area don’t have access to the station on their cable network.

  9. Bobbie November 26, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    It better snow soon or this panic period will be all Winter

  10. terry November 26, 2017 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    I am excited for this this winter. I finally may have my winter !

  11. Lary Gezak November 26, 2017 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    AO is trending back to deep negative. This would be huge for the winter!

    • Heat Miser November 26, 2017 at 8:01 pm - Reply

      lol…”Lary Gezak”

      • Lary Gezak November 27, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

        I am the evil twin…

  12. BSMike November 26, 2017 at 2:36 pm - Reply

    Ready for the real winter to come on in!!

  13. stl78 November 26, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Whats goin on wit your boys mike?

    • BSMike November 26, 2017 at 4:40 pm - Reply

      We lost in the semifinals 21-18 to Webb City.

  14. numb3rsguy November 26, 2017 at 3:37 pm - Reply

    If Gary is right, it sounds like December may be cold and snowy, we will have our normal January thaw, and then February will finish off the winter with more cold and snow. I recall that being the forecast two years ago though, and it seemed like the storm systems never got their act together until they got further east. Hopefully things are more organized this year so they produce.

    • terry November 26, 2017 at 5:37 pm - Reply

      Not really because the last 2 or 3 winter we were never really in the right spot . This Winter seems a lot more promising As stated by Gary !

      • Richard November 26, 2017 at 6:38 pm - Reply

        Not exactly in the right spot for wet systems so far either in the new lrc.
        Dry storms yes, but not wet ones.
        We have really dried out since the end of Oct.
        I know it seems like we should get something in Dec though. Lets hope.

        • terry November 26, 2017 at 7:08 pm - Reply

          Lol did you watch the video ? I guess you’re Gary got different opinions ?

          • Richard November 26, 2017 at 7:35 pm - Reply

            terry
            Yes I watched the video.
            Did you understand what I said.

            I said so far we have had dry systems, not wet ones. Since end of Oct.
            And it seems like we should get so,something in Dec. Meaning wet systems. I hope so

  15. MikeL November 26, 2017 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    This is interesting: today’s 18z GFS 500mb forecast for Dec 8 compared to Oct 24 – 45 days apart – match up fairly well.

    12/8: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112618/gfs_z500_vort_namer_45.png

    10/24: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20171024.html

    • MikeL November 26, 2017 at 4:57 pm - Reply

      ugh…stuck in moderation.

  16. Kurt November 26, 2017 at 7:16 pm - Reply

    He’s fairly confident about colder temps, but it all depends on where the storms track and the moisture with them. No guarantees and just have to wait and see. Maybe more snow but below average precipitation?

    • terry November 26, 2017 at 7:27 pm - Reply

      With the AO and NAO being and forecast to go negative that alone could Can bring a bigger winter for as here. It last all more Promising for a better winter here by what Gary is saying and seeing ! When have not had the a Dip Negative and a NAO for awhile. Probley Since 2009/2010 that winter not sure . It has not been Dry where I’ve been at all much.

      • terry November 26, 2017 at 7:31 pm - Reply

        That’s supposed to say Dip Negative AO and NAO for a while and I will go by what Gary is seeing. It’s not been Dry much where I live at all.

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 4:32 am - Reply

      Bloggers, I will have the winter forecast published here by 6 pm. Our winter special is on at 6:30 on 41 Action News.

      We are looking forward to a lively discussion. The models have finally trended into the second LRC cycle on the latest runs!

      Gary

    • Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      Or….maybe time to buy a new garden hose for watering, lol…

  17. terry November 26, 2017 at 7:36 pm - Reply

    My Snow Forecast I believe will be close to is 18 to 23 inches this winter and maybe more than 23 this winter . Bring on Winter.

    • Bobbie November 26, 2017 at 8:16 pm - Reply

      Learn to spellcheck. Good lord!

      • terry November 26, 2017 at 8:22 pm - Reply

        check lol

      • Richard November 27, 2017 at 8:05 am - Reply

        Bobbie

        terry has some challenges. We all know this. I guess you don’t.
        Don’t criticize him for spelling

      • Mark November 27, 2017 at 1:56 pm - Reply

        Which word is misspelled?

  18. stl78 November 26, 2017 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    You are doin just fine Terry! I hope u have a great winter

  19. KS Jones November 26, 2017 at 9:27 pm - Reply

    Salt brine is a proactive approach to battling inclement weather. Last year, KDOT used approximately 5 million gallons to prepare road surfaces for snow and ice. Each of the 112 sub areas in Kansas has at least 1,000-10,000gallon storage tanks.  

    https://www.hemmings.com/blog/2014/01/22/how-exactly-does-road-salt-cause-cars-to-rust/
    The fact that road salt causes vehicles to rust out – sometimes after just a couple of winters – is something everybody knows . . . As a side note, sodium chloride isn’t the only road salt available, nor is it the most effective; it’s simply one of the cheapest. Other road salts, like calcium chloride and magnesium chloride, involve more complex molecules that distribute more ions when they dissolve in water, further lowering the freezing point of water. In turn, they’d also create more effective electrolytes than sodium chloride and thus prove even more devastating to your vehicle’s sheetmetal.

  20. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 4:41 am - Reply

    There is a trend in the models finally

    • f00dl3 November 27, 2017 at 5:15 am - Reply

      Trend I see is for the storm to bomb out over Dodge City and track to Minneapolis giving us rain and thunder not snow.

      • Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 5:40 pm - Reply

        Free car wash….

  21. stl78 November 27, 2017 at 7:29 am - Reply

    True but its something to follow

  22. Richard November 27, 2017 at 8:29 am - Reply

    So no blog today, Nov 27, until the winter forecast tonight ?
    Got it

    • Alex Pickman November 27, 2017 at 3:52 pm - Reply

      Is that an issue? Lol

  23. j-ox November 27, 2017 at 8:41 am - Reply

    At 6:30 tonight on KSHB is the Winter special/forecast? All I see on our cable guide is an ice skating performance from 6:30-7:00 called Wonders of Winter.

    • Thomas November 27, 2017 at 9:04 am - Reply

      Wonders of winter is Gary’s winter forecast.

    • Richard November 27, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

      j-ox

      The Cable Guide info says thats the winter forecast. Says nothing about ice skating

    • Gary November 27, 2017 at 10:31 am - Reply

      It is our winter forecast! And,the blog comes out as soon as I have finished writing the winter forecast. I am about half way through.

      Gary

  24. terry November 27, 2017 at 8:52 am - Reply

    You can know the models are finally Trending into the 2nd cycle of this years They’re still all over the place .Yeah think todays blog will not come out until later this afternoon.

  25. Roger November 27, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    Denver has soared to a record high of 80 degrees!

  26. Anonymous November 27, 2017 at 4:17 pm - Reply

    I’m surprised today’s blog still isnt up.

    • Bluetooth November 27, 2017 at 5:42 pm - Reply

      Terry, is that you????

  27. Heat Miser November 27, 2017 at 4:17 pm - Reply

    I’m surprised today’s blog isn’t up by now.

  28. Anonymous November 27, 2017 at 5:11 pm - Reply

    Did you all really think that Gary would put his winter forecast on the blog before the special? He has to make the station money, lol!

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