What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

/What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  What do you think is going to happen this winter? Let’s test your LRC skills.  Go over to the blog here:  Weather2020 blog and let us know what you are seeing and I will share some of these on the air Tuesday night on 41 Action News. I will be providing a preview to the winter forecast Tuesday night at 10 PM.  The full winter forecast comes out two weeks from today.  The weather pattern is fascinating. According to my hypothesis, a unique weather pattern sets up every fall from around October 1 to November 30. The pattern then is established, cycles regularly, and continues through the next September.  As discussed last week, we are in the “panic period” where we are now still seeing parts of the pattern for the first time. What has happened in the past five weeks is of utmost importance, so when you make your prediction, think about that big picture.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

In 1982, my Junior year at the University of Oklahoma, I took Synoptic Meteorology and Synoptic Lab. We plotted so many maps back then and I got an A in Synoptic Lab. When you are plotting the 500 mb charts, you should draw in the 570 and 540 dm lines (dm stands for decameters).  The 500 mb level is half way through the atmosphere in weight. 0 mb, or no weight is the top of the atmosphere, and 1000 mb is near the surface.  This 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up. I drew in these lines below:

1

A trough is forecast to swing across the west coast later this week. This map above is valid at 6 PM Thursday evening.  The map below is folic Sunday morning, when the Chiefs will be in East Rutherford, NJ to play the New York Giants. I am flying into New York Saturday for a two day trip and I have great seats to see if the Chiefs can beat the Giants to get to 7-3. I will be wearing a few layers as it looks pretty cold. Look at what happens to the trough as it moves into eastern North America:

2

Some blocking develops north of the upper low, and you can see this where I plotted the big H up there. The models continue to be all over the place after this period, and I still don’t trust them at all. Once we know the LRC better in just two weeks or so, we will begin to “know” when the models are right and “know” when they are likely wrong.

Screen Shot 2017-11-13 at 7.50.01 AM

The latest Arctic Oscillation Index came in this morning with the ensemble members of the models showing a very likely huge dip to negative that we have been waiting for, anticipating, and maybe it will actually happen. If this dip does indeed happen this week, the next ten days should become more unpredictable and if the pattern blocks up, the chance of an Arctic Blast will increase. Again, there are too many uncertainties at this moment.

3

At the surface, you can see this storm beginning to intensify as it moves out into the plains states Friday.  As this storm moves east it picks up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a blizzard forms just north of the Great Lakes over southeast Canada.

4

So, what do you think will happen this winter. Join in the conversation over at Weather2020 where we are sharing this technology with you.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading todays blog. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

2017-11-15T07:31:16+00:00November 13th, 2017|General|71 Comments

71 Comments

  1. f00dl3 November 13, 2017 at 8:01 am - Reply

    If the AO dives the blocking could easily push this next weekend’s storm far enough south to give us our first inch! Come on negative AO!

    • Three7s November 13, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

      But shouldn’t the models already include that negative AO during the run?

      • f00dl3 November 13, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

        What’s weird is when the storm came in last time it was further south and the AO was more positive. If the AO is negative, you would think it would deflect the storm further south. Unless it takes a while for the flow to kink things around?

  2. stl78 November 13, 2017 at 8:02 am - Reply

    Im stickin wit my early prediction of 24 in for kc. Slightly above avg temps and a chance for an icing event. Up here in se mn we had an icing event sat morn and there were a ton of accidents.

  3. Urbanity November 13, 2017 at 8:12 am - Reply

    We’ve been telling you for 7 weeks what we think is going to happen. You know my discussion, drought west of Salina, less than average precip west of Topeka, average to slightly above average snowfall for KC area with two to three big snowstorms (>6″) to hit the KC area. Temps will run about average with some decent cold snaps. Overall, KC snow lovers are happy enough with this winter, the remaining 80% of the state will regard it as dismal.

    • Troy November 13, 2017 at 12:26 pm - Reply

      It doesn’t look good for winter precip to me either. I live 75 miles North of Salina and we have had no real measurable rain since about Oct 10. It has been cooler than last year by a long shot with a lot of cold fronts and 20 days already with below normal temperatures. I wonder if we won’t see some rain as these patterns repeat next summer when the moisture comes back? Usually we see good rains come in from Nebraska with a NW flow but that set up produces next to nothing in the winter and early spring here.

  4. Three7s November 13, 2017 at 8:16 am - Reply

    The most disturbing trend I’ve noticed this LRC is these systems not getting their act together until they get to the Ohio Valley. I hope it’s just a PART of the pattern and not one of the dominant trends.

  5. Mr. Pete November 13, 2017 at 8:22 am - Reply

    This winter? About the same as the last two.

  6. Frankie November 13, 2017 at 8:34 am - Reply

    You are all still stuck in the Panic Period, it seems. Think back to last pattern: this time in 2016, we were watching the models for at least COLD AIR, while it was in the 60s-70s for the whole first half of the month. We didn’t even talk about snow. This pattern? We just went 18 days in a row with below average temps, and we’ve already had snowflakes. I think we get at least average snowfall (18″+) but we will occasionally be greeted with pacific air that might make for some nice days. It won’t be a brutal winter, but more of an average, classic KC winter. Those are my thoughts… for what they’re worth.

  7. terry November 13, 2017 at 8:50 am - Reply

    I think that AO Dose go deep Negative And blocking does happen . I think we get this winter have a snowy winter from time to time and we get 18 to 23 inches this winter !

  8. stl78 November 13, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Atta boy terry

  9. Snow Miser November 13, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

    I predict this winter will be cold with occasional snow, interrupted by periods of warming and occasional rain. Many days will be sunny and cold.

    • Three7s November 13, 2017 at 9:50 am - Reply

      I think we’ll have quite a few cloudy days, but it will definitely be colder than what we’ve seen.

  10. Kurt November 13, 2017 at 9:36 am - Reply

    I think I’d like some sunshine if we aren’t going to get any good rain or snow from all these clouds. Looks like we got trapped in an area of nothing, hope the next 2 cycles are more exciting that 17 days of cold and cloudy.

  11. terry November 13, 2017 at 9:44 am - Reply

    Gary I was wondering if the AO Dose indeed hose Dip Negative How long before we would fill the effects of that with cold and storm System ?

    • terry November 13, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

      Lol Was using voice text It’s supposed to say AO Dose indeed go Dip Negative .

  12. Jsquibble November 13, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Yay!! My winter forecast!
    This will be the winter of happiness and disappointments (shocker)
    The first part of the pattern was very active with storms systems diving into the plains and intensifying as they rolled through. There was a persistent high over the Southeast that aided in opening up the Gulf of Mexico. With 2/3 week window will be the times we score our big snows. The last 2/3weeks we have been in a quasi zonal flow pattern with cold air trapped at the surface and pacific warm air overriding at the top which will make for icing setups.

    Overall: this winter will be more exciting than last year! We have more systems and cold air to available the issue is will we have storm systems with moisture! I’m going for 13 inches of snow this year

  13. Michael Casteel November 13, 2017 at 10:40 am - Reply

    Winter will be colder than normal, especially in the south part of the state, with the coldest periods from late November into early December and in late December, mid-January, and early February. Precipitation will be slightly below normal in the north part of the state and above in the southern part of state, with above-normal snowfall in both. The snowiest periods will be in early and mid- to late December, mid-January, early and mid-February, and early March. I am guessing 22″ inches for Maryville, and 26″ for Kansas City! Have a happy Monday bloggers!
    Michael

    • Anonymous November 13, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

      Haha that sounds like the winter forecast from Farmer’s Almanac.

  14. Urbanity November 13, 2017 at 12:01 pm - Reply

    Last year Olathe had 1.40 inches of rain by this time on November, this year .04. Moisture in November creates winters to remember, so far this year nada.

    • Anonymous November 13, 2017 at 12:53 pm - Reply

      You said two different things in your Comments on the blog today!

      • Richard November 13, 2017 at 2:07 pm - Reply

        No name

        No he didn’t. Read his first one again.
        Olathe is not KC.
        Many times, north of the river, WY CO and KC have had good snows while Olathe gets zip.
        Ever heard of the Tonganoxie split?

      • Urbanity November 13, 2017 at 3:25 pm - Reply

        Well, I kind of did Anonymous and Richard, but I was speaking more along the lines of multiple rain/snow events throughout the month of November. A one time generous rain event doesn’t necessarily mean we are in a wet pattern, when you see several weather events in November generally you’ll have a snowy year. At least that’s what some of my card playing older buddies believe….and coincidentally that is similar to what Lezak believes.

        I put the Olathe stat out there just so people could see that last year we had more rain thus far in November and yet people seem to be rather high on our chances for snow this year. If we can finish out the last 10 days of November on a wet note maybe KC area can get lucky this year.

  15. KS Jones November 13, 2017 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    Que Sera, Sera

  16. Mike Holm November 13, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    Black Friday storm, Christmas storm, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria! 24-28 inches, 1 arctic outbreak (dec 9ish)

    • Urbanity November 13, 2017 at 3:27 pm - Reply

      Like the Ghostbuster reference, we can only dream brother!

  17. Fred Nolan November 13, 2017 at 1:01 pm - Reply

    Im going with above average snowfall at 27 inches. I am betting that these winter systems will be difficult to forecast. Some will be very unique. Most of these we will have to wait until just a couple days out to see how they are going to setup. The rest of them as usual, will be nothing more than a nowcast event.

  18. terry November 13, 2017 at 1:07 pm - Reply

    Bring on the snow

  19. JoeK November 13, 2017 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    2017-2018 has been unique, especially compared to the previous two winters. Thus far, we have experienced multiple systems within the first cycle as well as a number of cold fronts that have the opportunity to be much stronger in future cycles. I am watching the last half of November and first part of December to start getting exciting. I believe we have the opportunity for 2-3 bigger snow storms (6″+) and 4-6 smaller systems with the strong potential of 1-2 ice storms. My prediction for winter is for 20″-26″ of snow and average to slightly below average temperatures. I also see the potential for 2-3 periods within each cycle that we will experience brief warm-ups which, will be when I believe the potential for ice or even thunderstorms to form.

  20. Rockdoc November 13, 2017 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    It seems to me that with 18+ days below average that we are probably in for a colder winter as compared to the last two winters. With not much precip in our area for most of late October and now into November, I think we will be below our average snowfall too. With these small pacific Northwest systems, the clippers can produce some snow, but not he big snowstorms like what happens when they come roaring out of the four-corners area and into Oklahoma/Texas before turning NE to hit KC area. These typically will pull in gulf moisture. I have not seen any of these set-ups like what we saw last year. We usually missed out since the storms turned too early and headed into central Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa if I remember correctly. There has also been a lot of zonal flow, although there has been a couple of fairly deep troughs that have developed just to our east. I think this means the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes states on up into eastern Ontario, Canada will be where all the snow action is at. It also seems that Colorado and Utah are behind in snowfall, so if you want to go skiing, you may wish to think about Montreal and Quebec ski resorts this year or the Pacific Northwest. What ever the case, with all of these cloudy days, you are going to have to scrap me off the ceiling since I suffer from seasonal affect disorder, SAD – lack of sun, and its no fun 🙁

  21. blue flash November 13, 2017 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    I don’t know whether this is an omen of things to come, but we sure have had a lot of cloudy days lately. Only 1 “clear” day so far in November, and a number of days that were forecast to clear off but didn’t. What will it take to break out of this low overcast? “Don’t your feet get cold in the wintertime, sky won’t snow and the sun won’t shine, its hard to tell the nighttime from the day.”

  22. Anonymous November 13, 2017 at 3:14 pm - Reply

    Looks like a functional Storm for Tuesday night setting up,particularly for areas south and east of metro. We could use a little rain, but it’s not really needed. The winter wheat in my neighbors field is 6-8″ tall already, doing great down here.
    A farmer was still combining his beans in a neighboring field while I Hunted on Saturday so they have taken advantage of the Calm weather lately and just about wrapped up everything crop wise Plus planted winter wheat. I saw 3 bucks on Saturday and 4 on Sunday but none of them were “The one” so they got to keep on chasing does instead of taking a long dirt nap.

  23. Richard November 13, 2017 at 3:42 pm - Reply

    Guess we will wait until 10 pm tomorrow night on kshb for Garys sneak peek of his winter forecast.
    Or until Wed morning here for those who won’t be up Tues night to watch.
    I really have no idea one way or the other. Forget my past posts about this winter. No clue.
    But nice to see those who have hopes for it.

  24. stl78 November 13, 2017 at 3:51 pm - Reply

    Glass is half full richard!😉

    • Richard November 13, 2017 at 6:19 pm - Reply

      stl78
      Half full, until I drink the rest or spill it ! I tend to spill a lot these days 😄

  25. Anonymous November 13, 2017 at 4:46 pm - Reply

    It would take almost very little to beat the snowfall totals of the last three years, so I predict this to be the snowiest winter in three years..

    • Three7s November 13, 2017 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      Was about to post this. Not gonna happen at 384 hours out, but that would be a MAJOR snowstorm…..

      • terry November 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm - Reply

        Three7s Yes it very well could be true in might be . Because Because Can I previous blog that Jeff Penner Wrote up on November 8th the new LRC is about 45ish days this year. After the 20th of November the early October Systems from the 7th – 20 will be showing up and when the Coupled with Negative AO and NAO! So read the blog on November 8th and that’s what it said.

    • Richard November 13, 2017 at 6:24 pm - Reply

      Hope not. Family flying in from the east coast that night.

  26. TimO November 13, 2017 at 5:22 pm - Reply

    I am keeping it simple, I will say above average temps and more precep than the last two years combined, and that is not a stretch seeing how dry it was these past two very mild winters. Another (overall) mild winter but probably not like the last few.

  27. MaryLou November 13, 2017 at 5:24 pm - Reply

    I believed the prediction from The Old Farmer’s Almanac…. predicting some snow this month between the 9th and 15th…. so I guessed 11/11 for the first measurable snow… didn’t win…. no price…. no pretty ring…. *sad*

  28. Richard November 13, 2017 at 6:14 pm - Reply

    (Link is below) A pretty neat video to watch.
    “Nerd Alert!! NASA just released this spectacular animation of the atmosphere during hurricane season. You are looking at something we call “Aerosols”… stuff like fine dust, smoke and salt particles. This new GEOS Simulation is a HUGE step forward in atmospheric monitoring and simulation. For Floridians there is a lot to take note of in this video like the hurricanes (salt) and the vast plumes of dust coming off Africa. You may remember hurricane Ophelia which hit Ireland as a post tropical cyclone. At 1:40 mins in you can see Ophelia pick up smoke from Portugal’s extensive fires and stream it north into the UK. We saw video of that. CBS 12 News From NASA: The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a family of mathematical models. Combined with data from NASA’s Earth observing satellites, the supercomputer simulations enhance our scientific understanding of specific chemical, physical, and biological processes.”

    https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12772

  29. Frankie November 13, 2017 at 6:36 pm - Reply

    Thunderstorms into snow on the 29th. I know it’s fantasy, but this would be a huge snowstorm. If it fits the cycle… we will wait and see

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

  30. Emaw November 13, 2017 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    6-10 on the 29th, believe it!

  31. stl78 November 14, 2017 at 5:32 am - Reply

    Now play nice emaw!😉

  32. silverfox November 14, 2017 at 6:12 am - Reply

    The 4+1 station is calling for a snowy winter.
    yes, the last half of this month could be exciting.

  33. f00dl3 November 14, 2017 at 7:37 am - Reply

    Weather Channel must be high on crack or something – for Overland Park they say thunderstorms today, patchy rain tonight, and heavy rainfall tomorrow. I don’t see “heavy rainfall” on any of the models, and thunderstorms are a stretch for Kansas City.

  34. Richard November 14, 2017 at 8:12 am - Reply

    Hmm no blog yet.
    Caught the very tail end of sports 810 where Gary calls each morning.
    But I think it was Jeff Penner talking to the guys.

  35. Fred Nolan November 14, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

    No blog update today.

  36. stl78 November 14, 2017 at 9:36 am - Reply

    Look outside😉

  37. Urbanity November 14, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    The long term GFS on Tropical Tidbits is just flat out boring, the ridge in the Southwest is dominating, it just unfortunately looks like another year of no snow for almost all of Kansas (KC may be the exception but many of these bloggers are not from KC). I mean good grief, for almost a month the GFS has shown no events occurring in the midwest and that has verified. So while I put no faith in the GFS beyond six days, it now is apparent that a dry pattern has established for the winter yet again. We get good rains every spring, and then the sky well runs dry, it seems like a monsoon pattern traditionally reserved for the southwestern states is occurring right here in most of Kansas.

    • Anonymous November 14, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

      The models on the place did not hear Gary say that earlier before in his Blogs ?

    • Anonymous November 14, 2017 at 2:52 pm - Reply

      Gary isnt saying anything remotely resembling what you are saying about low snow in KC. Looks like you are another no snow drama queen. ROFL

  38. Richard November 14, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Where is that sun ? We’ve had a lot of cloudy days, with no rain to go with them.
    And below normal temps for days now too.
    Will this mean polar vortex ?

    Glass half full stl78 😊

  39. Richard November 14, 2017 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    Whats up everyone.
    Anyone.
    Ok, are models still saying snow for Nov 29 ?

    • Gary November 14, 2017 at 2:15 pm - Reply

      The models are all over the place with a blocking pattern developing. I will talk about this at 10 PM tonight with our preliminary Winter Forecast. I will have the blog updated later this evening as well. There have been many distractions today. Thank you for you patience.

      Gary

      • Richard November 14, 2017 at 4:05 pm - Reply

        At 10 pm Gary ? Ok sounds good
        Jeff is in for you now on kshb.

  40. Roger November 14, 2017 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    If indeed the pattern started on October 7th, then there has been very little (less than 0.10 in) to nil precipitation in the western half of Kansas. Throw in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, eastern Colorado, and the desert southwest too. Tomorrow would mark day 40 of the LRC. Maybe next cycle will produce???

    • JoeK November 14, 2017 at 5:43 pm - Reply

      Roger,

      The areas you speak of have in fact been on the more dry side. To answer your question, Each cycle does have subtle differences and as Gary always states, there is always a twist or two in each cycle. While I believe we experience seasonal variances, not sure it will be enough to change the course of the current pattern out in your area. hopefully, we have a few big twists that will shake things up for you and others that have been on the dry side

    • Anonymous November 14, 2017 at 7:07 pm - Reply

      It depends on where you located at

      • JoeK November 14, 2017 at 7:54 pm - Reply

        Agreed, it seems as though there are going to be some holes ,Snow and rain and 50-75 miles away, nothing. Very strange

  41. Nicholas November 14, 2017 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    Well had fun in Florida, felt like I went back in time two months, they are an hour later( so a proxy for Missouri daylights savings time) and it was in the 80’s for the first 4 days and the 70’s for the last two. with dew points in the upper 60’sF or so. had a few small brief showers move in off the ocean on the last couple days, thursday was great as it was overcast and felt nice. saw some signs of some businesses that were still chewed up from Irma. So now it is back to Missouri, cool, cloudy and grey time for pumpkin pie and hopefully some snow eventually 😛

  42. anonymous November 14, 2017 at 4:59 pm - Reply

    no snow on Nov. 29

  43. Elaine Watson November 14, 2017 at 5:35 pm - Reply

    Hope everything is OK Gary. Don’t stress..we can be patient :).

  44. Richard November 14, 2017 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    Gary

    Saw on Facebook about Christa Dubills mother passing away this weekend.
    Wondered where she has been.
    Give her our condolences. Only 63. Sad

  45. Mr. Pete November 14, 2017 at 10:21 pm - Reply

    Gary just said up to 30 inches of snow this weekend

    • Richard November 14, 2017 at 10:24 pm - Reply

      Thats high end. Low end is 13.
      Tough call

  46. Mr. Pete November 14, 2017 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    Winter not weekend sorry

  47. Frankie November 14, 2017 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    For those of you that didn’t watch 41 news at 10 – Gary just dropped a bomb! He said lowest snowfall number is 13″ and the highest we could see is 30″

  48. Richard November 14, 2017 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    Snow this winter 13 – 30 inches !?
    Thats what Gary said on kshb just now.
    Because LaNina is leaning in the moderate, more snowy direction.

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