The Leaves Begin Falling Faster

/The Leaves Begin Falling Faster

The Leaves Begin Falling Faster

Good morning bloggers,

We had a very hard freeze in Kansas City this morning. It dropped to below 25 degrees and stayed there for six hours this morning.  This will cause the leaves to fall faster and also spark more trees to change color.  We had peak color this week, and there are still many gorgeous trees out there.  I got this picture of Sunny The  Weather Dog earlier today as the sun was rising:


The weather pattern continues to set up for the season. We are now just over two weeks away from our official winter forecast. It will come out on Monday, November 27th. We will likely have a preliminary outlook in the next week.  We are still seeing more parts of this first LRC Cycle, so as I said yesterday, don’t panic as we are in the panic period. The models are all over the place. There has been one very consistent aspect to this pattern that continues from model run to model run. The fact that it has been dry out west, and it continues to be forecast to be dry out over the southwest.

16-day Precipitation Forecast:


I just need a few more days to analyze this developing pattern. I will be spending a few hours this weekend going over all of the pieces of the winter forecast puzzle.  Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


2017-11-14T23:28:33+00:00November 10th, 2017|General|21 Comments


  1. Tyler Kinney November 10, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary. Excited to see what you come up with. Lets hope for some snow this year!

  2. stl78 November 10, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

    Good morning to all. Im stckin to my guns of 24 in for u guys in kc. Here in se mn we had a low of 11 and look to see a little snow/frz rain/rain for fri/sat. I don’t mind the snow but prefer to avoid the frz rain. Happy early veterans day for all u veterans!!

  3. Baseball Mike November 10, 2017 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary

    Here in Berryton it got down to 25 but we have not really had a “hard” freeze at all. When I put Katie out this morning at five and retrieved the paper at the end of the drive, I noticed that the air was crisper but I also noticed a partial cloud cover. The Topeka mets here have been all over the place with their forecasts. This morning one stated that November would finish above normal temps reaching close to 70. The only thing I am concerned with is measurable precipitation and being a Colorado State observer and recorder of precipitation events it has gotten dry even though we are way ahead for the year. Thanks for your posts and hopefully the colder air will travel this way occasionally and not stay north or off to the east.


  4. Frankie November 10, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Keep in mind for this pattern – we have already had 9 freezes in KC. Last fall, we didn’t even get our first freeze until Nov 12

    • numb3rsguy November 10, 2017 at 8:43 am - Reply

      Fun facts:

      Through 11/09, we are tied at 9th for the most number of days at or below 32 degrees in KC weather history. Not including today, we have has 8 days at or below 32 degrees. The record is 14 in 1991. We currently have the most since 1993, in which we had 10 such days up to this point. Even the cold winter of 2013/14 only had 6 to this date.

      It doesn’t necessarily set the pattern for the rest of the winter, but it might be a good indicator of what is to come.

      • Gary November 10, 2017 at 10:32 am - Reply

        This is good information, and it is very likely a good indicator. The winter ride is beginning. Thank you for this work.


      • blue flash November 10, 2017 at 11:58 am - Reply

        I’m off to Ft. Lauderdale in two weeks. Unlike last year, I am really ready for some warm weather!

      • Waldo weather November 10, 2017 at 12:07 pm - Reply

        Keep the numbers coming!

    • Randy Keller November 10, 2017 at 9:26 am - Reply

      early cold spell. means early warm up. ??

      thanks for everything Gary! Your the man! You have quite the fan base up here in nebraska. we listen to you when we can on 810am radio, its sometimes really hard to make it through all the crap before you come on… the guys on there are massive homers and they soooo jealous of OU sports. full blown dorks man.


  5. Nate November 10, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

    That pic is blurry

  6. stl78 November 10, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Great info num! I love facts and stats

    • numb3rsguy November 10, 2017 at 10:48 am - Reply

      I got plenty more where that came from B-)

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE November 10, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Off to deer camp later this afternoon, I’M PUMPED! Wish was a little colder for tomorrow morning and Sunday morning but it beats 70F and super windy like it has been several opening days in the past. Some big Bucks are gong down tomorrow! Thinking this weak storm moving by might trigger some movement, good luck to the hunters out there and let those medium sized bucks live for next year. If its not a mature 4-5+ year old, don’t shoot it. Thanks to all the Veterans, Keith and Richard and all the rest- you are appreciated

  8. stl78 November 10, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    Good luck real!

  9. numb3rsguy November 10, 2017 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    I also found this interesting article on the weather channel. On 11/11 in 1911, a famous cold front came through the great plains. Springfield, MO, and Oklahoma City, OK set a record high AND a record low on the SAME day, both of which still stand. The IA, WI, IL, region had tornados in the morning (that killed 13 people) and a blizzard by the evening! The temperature in St. Louis dropped 26 degrees in only 10 minutes! Pretty interesting read.

    • KS Jones November 10, 2017 at 2:36 pm - Reply
      Back in the late 19th century, the land that is now Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas were mostly miles and miles of open terrain . . . The fenceless open range meant grazing land was easy to come by, so ranchers could own massive herds of cattle. . . Through much of the late 1870s and into the 1880s, cooler summers and mild winters meant that feeding the animals was relatively easy: grass and feed was typically pretty plentiful. But everything changed in the disastrous winter of1886-1887. . . A blazing hot summer had scorched the prairies, so when snow started falling in early November much of the frontier’s livestock were already starving and ill equipped for a hard winter. The problem became a catastrophe when, on January 9, 1887, a blizzard hit, covering parts of the Great Plains in more than 16 inches of snow. Winds whipped, and temperatures dropped to around 50 below. . . When spring arrived, millions of the animals were dead, with around 90 percent of the open range’s cattle rotting where they fell. . . Those present reported carcasses as far as the eye could see. Dead cattle clogged up rivers and spoiled drinking water. . . The winter of 1886-1887 signaled the beginning of the end to the days of roving cowboys and the untamed western wilderness.

    • Shoedog November 11, 2017 at 10:03 am - Reply

      It’s stories like this that make me laugh when everyone sees some out of the ordinary storm, temperature change, etc… claiming that its the current manmade climate change causing all these dramatic changes. The 11/11 storm is surreal, and the 1886/1887 are very dramatic changes. History shows all types of anomalies that have happened at a given point of time, IMHO, we always have these events and always will.

  10. Brad November 10, 2017 at 1:32 pm - Reply

    Say this last night on another news station out of Wichita that i thought was kinda interesting, ever heard of the term Fake News??? How about fake weather???? Check this link out…

  11. Rod November 10, 2017 at 2:39 pm - Reply

    AO index forecast for around Nov 20 still showing it going deeply into negative territory. Crossing my fingers this happens. I want lots of snow & cold weather. Excitement building!!

  12. Mike November 10, 2017 at 3:40 pm - Reply

    FYI, today is the 16th day in a row with below average temperatures. Pretty cool. Should be a super cold winter.

  13. Brad November 10, 2017 at 11:21 pm - Reply

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