Mostly Calm Weather Pattern…For Now

/Mostly Calm Weather Pattern…For Now

Mostly Calm Weather Pattern…For Now

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Today we will see a full sunny day for the first time in about 7-10 days as the weather pattern is not to active.  We have one main system to watch the next seven day, and it arrives this weekend. So, let’s go through the forecast into the weekend and discuss potential changes after the 20th.

Today we have a surface high pressure overhead, so we are in for sunshine, light wind and highs around 50°. A system is tracking across the southern USA and is producing some decent rain with the help of Pacific moisture.

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THURSDAY MORNING: It will be slightly warmer as we will have light southwest winds ahead of a cold front. Look at the low in Bismarck, ND, 10°!. This is a decent cold air air mass and has looked stronger as we have gotten closer to the front’s arrival.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be moving away quickly and our winds will be shifted to the northeast.  There will be no precipitation with the front, just a few clouds.  Highs will be kept in the 40s, staying in the 20s across the northern Plains.

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FRIDAY MORNING: We will start to see an increase in the clouds with lows around 30° as a strong surface high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Our next storm system will be moving through the Rockies.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON: This is looking like a cloudy afternoon with temperatures struggling to 40° as this cold air mass is really entrenched in the Plains.

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VETERAN’S DAY: The storm system is not that strong, but as it interacts with a shallow cold air mass it will create a complex surface pattern. But, all this means is that Saturday will be cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s along with the chance of a shower or some drizzle. The system will exit Sunday, but clouds and drizzle may linger into the early morning. If the sun can return Sunday then highs will be 45-50, otherwise highs may get stuck in the upper 30s and low 40s.

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This is the upper level pattern next Tuesday which is representative of the weather pattern today through the 20th. That is, a pattern with fast-moving west to east systems that do not have much time to get their act together and produce much precipitation until they are east of the Mississippi river. This also prevents Arctic air from heading south into the USA. Yes, it will be cold Friday and Saturday, but this is not Arctic air.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS:

It has been rather dry since October 22nd and it will stay that way another 10 days. It is still good to do one more lawn fertilization in November and it would be nice to see .10″ to .50″ of rain/snow, but the next 7-10 days will be mostly dry, unless something crazy happens over this weekend.

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There are still signs of a change after the 20th as not only are the AO and NAO forecast to go negative which increases the chance of blocking at high latitudes (increases the chance of cold air farther south, lower heights and bigger/slower storm systems), but we also expect storm systems to drop in to the southwest USA as we believe the pattern is about to show it’s cycle of 45ish days. This means the systems from October 7-20 will be showing up and when coupled with negative AO and NAO could make for some interesting weather to round out November, just not on Thanksgiving.

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Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

 

2017-11-09T08:54:58+00:00November 8th, 2017|General|24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. Jsquibble November 8, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    So since the pattern and cycle is pretty much established are you saying that we only have a 2 week window of getting a good so storm in our area? I thought the previous weeks the NAO and AO have been in the positive range?

    • Richard November 8, 2017 at 1:25 pm - Reply

      Just like I thought

      • Randy Keller November 8, 2017 at 1:31 pm - Reply

        me too… poof.. keep your fingers crossed?

        Go Sooners

    • JoeK November 8, 2017 at 4:35 pm - Reply

      The entire month of October was active including multiple :dry systems” that can and will look different with each cycle. If you go back over the years, this has been observed and described as seasonal variances. We can have colder air and storms with positive AO and NAO however, going negative creates blocking and allows arctic air farther South and allows systems to intensify. I hope Gary has time to explain better than I can, but wanted to try and help a bit

  2. Kurt November 8, 2017 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    What we all need to hope for with this pattern is that the non-active weeks with the many fronts will respond differently in spring and summer with more moisture to produce more showers/thunderstorms. Also, maybe the AO/NAO can impact the non-active stretches if it stays negative for longer than the 2 week window.

    We are due for stormier winter than the last few, I would think (smiley face)

    • Mike Holm November 8, 2017 at 12:45 pm - Reply

      I follow a blog with Joel at open snow. He has researched Octobers for the last 20 years and concluded that October weather has no bearing on the rest of the winter.
      Those of you that track the LRC closer than I can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see a correlation with the beginning of the pattern with the rest of the year. This years cycle length of 45 days should give us more chances of snowy weather because of more cycles. How did Gary discover the cycle link before the cycle is completed? I noticed heady on his blog, came up with the length 45 days a few weeks ago. But he believes it sets up earlier than October. This year’s pattern is definitely different than the last couple. Hope we get a cold snowy winter.

      • Urbanity November 8, 2017 at 4:28 pm - Reply

        Well, here’s the thing, winter months in Kansas present with the lowest precipitation on average over the course of the year. Naturally since the air is drier there is less moisture to work with. If you were to inspect the weather records, not just October alone, but more along the lines of mid-Oct to late November, then you would see that when higher precip levels occur during that period it does indeed correspond to heavier snowfall/precipitation totals throughout the winter season.

  3. Clint November 8, 2017 at 1:58 pm - Reply
  4. Richard November 8, 2017 at 2:01 pm - Reply

    Gary

    “It has been rather dry since October 22nd”

    Make that since Oct 1 in Olathe. My yard was brown before the leaves took over.

    • MMike November 8, 2017 at 3:11 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      I have plenty of properties in the area you speak of, my gauges in that area are above average since Oct. 1st.

      All reporting stations from the NWS are above average since Oct. 1st. The grass has and still is plenty green down there. The brown you mention was likely the crabgrass going dormant due to cooler times.

      Your comment doesn’t hold water..

      Dry of late, sure, but that’s nothing abnormal for this time of year.

      • JoeK November 8, 2017 at 10:46 pm - Reply

        MMike

        😀

    • KS Jones November 8, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

      Richard, your grass is brown? What kind of grass?
      Our bluegrass is still green, but not the rich blue-green color that it was up until mid October.
      This area, 25 miles north of Manhattan, got 3.78″ of rain in October (roughly 1.4″ above normal), but only 0.73″ of that came after October 7th when this cycle supposedly began, so I don’t know how that fits into the big picture.
      We haven’t had any measurable rain since October 14th. The NWS forecast shows a 30% chance of rain Saturday and a 20% next Tuesday, but that might (and probably will) change.
      Our normal rainfall for November is roughly 1.6″, and our three driest months are January (0.71″), February (1.0″) & December 1.04″).

  5. Urbanity November 8, 2017 at 4:34 pm - Reply

    All I know about this LRC year so far is that big ridge wave pushing up west of the Rockies all the way to California, and over across Kansas and southern Missouri, leaving very little moisture flow out of the gulf and abnormally dry conditions. This is all I see out on the weather maps day after day. If this is the pattern then Kansas will break high temps this spring, and especially this summer, and the fall like no other. We may very have to run to the mountains to escape the heat. I would not be surprised to see only a moderate dip in the OA and NOA, much less than forecasted.

  6. Terry November 8, 2017 at 5:27 pm - Reply

    lol

  7. Richard November 8, 2017 at 6:01 pm - Reply

    Gary
    Can you give us your gut feeling about snow this winter ?
    Of course we won’t hold you to it. But you and Jeff must have an idea by now.

    • Terry November 8, 2017 at 7:11 pm - Reply

      Read October 26th blog it gives what Gary early Preliminary winter thoughs ! www. Blog-weather2020kansascity/October26thThechangingpattern-ThreeweekintoThis

  8. Terry November 8, 2017 at 7:14 pm - Reply

    Sorry didn’t work. Read October 26th blog The changing Pattern-Three week into This

  9. f00dl3 November 9, 2017 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Funny how just days ago we were thinking snow from the storm on the 22nd and now models show it near 70 degrees.

  10. Bill in Lawrence November 9, 2017 at 7:59 am - Reply

    foodl3:

    Where did you see 70? The 6Z GFS has it at 46 at 18Z on Tuesday the 21st and then 43 at 18Z on Wednesday the 22nd?

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Baseball Mike November 9, 2017 at 8:05 am - Reply

      Bill

      I just looked and I am not seeing 70 either-I must be missing something!

      Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  11. f00dl3 November 9, 2017 at 8:03 am - Reply

    Bill, latest models have backed off but I swear I saw it sometime yesterday

  12. MMike November 9, 2017 at 8:33 am - Reply

    It does look much warmer starting this weekend through next week…a few 60’s in there. That will be nice to see after this 16 straight days of below average temps…..this is the longest below average period for high and low temps all year if I remember correctly. It certainly is a different pattern then last fall where we were 8-9 degrees above most of the fall.

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