The Changing Weather Pattern

/The Changing Weather Pattern

The Changing Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

We hope everyone is having a great Tuesday. The time change is so awesome for those of us fascinated by weather.  Why? For the simple reason that the weather data, the computer model data, still comes out at 00z, 6z, 12z, and 18z every day. Zulu (Greenwich Mean Time) does not change, so when the time changes to fall back 12z is now 6 AM instead of 7 AM and the data comes in an hour earlier. This is huge for me as Chief Meteorologist at KSHB-TV. The NAM model now will come in beginning around 8 AM and 8 PM, and the GFS model rolls in beginning around 9:30 AM and PM. This allows us enough time to make a quick analysis when a storm system is approaching, or for any day really. I would rather not ever change this time again. We should petition to keep it as it is now instead of doing the spring forward thing to what is somehow called daylight savings time. What do you think?

Wow! Look at the first evidence in on  this years cycling pattern. This is for the 30 days ending November 5th:

Precip Anamalies Ending November 5

It was extremely dry over California. Last year the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center came out for the winter season to be dry in California due to a weak developing La Niña.  What happened? The exact opposite happened; one of the wettest winter seasons ever recorded out there and many of the reservoirs filled up, but it also lead to a lot of dry vegetation this summer leading to the bad fire season.  The previous winter one of the strongest El Niño’s ever recorded was in progress. The Climate Prediction Center forecasted a very wet year in California two winters ago.  What happened? The exact opposite; one of the driest years ever with the drought worsening.  And, now we have this year with a La Niña possibly developing. It isn’t confirmed yet, however.  The index is below La Niña at the moment, but it is forecast to  become a moderate La Niña winter season.  More on this in the next few weeks. Why were these past two years forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center so far off baae? They are not including the biggest piece of the forecast puzzle.  The LRC.  One of the indexes we use internally is this Eastern Pacific Blocking Indexes:

The Eastern Pacific Blocking Index (EPBI):

EPBI November 6 2017 Final

Figure 1:  This is the EPBI from October 7th through October 31st. The black line shows the neutral line. When this index is well above zero, then storm systems will most likely be blocked and deflected north of California.  If the index is below zero, then this would indicate a much more likely period for storm systems to blast California and the western states.

In Figure 1 above one can see the past two Octobers and this October lined up. When this index goes positive, then storm systems will likely be blocked from hitting California. A very positive index implies high heights aloft near the west coast. This is the 500 mb index for Seattle, WA.  The yellow line shows the strong El Niño year and it was mostly positive in October.  The white line shows last winter, showing the unblocked west coast. And, this year is somewhere in the middle, the red line. But, even though this index has been in the middle with unblocked times and blocked times in the past month, it has been extremely dry to start this season.

Screen Shot 2017-11-06 at 11.29.02 PM

The temperatures over the past 30 days show a very warm beginning to this season, with the exception of the Pacific northwest states. Kansas City has been closer to average in the past 30 days. The eastern United States has been quite warm to start the season.

Now, let’s not underestimate a current trend on the Arctic Oscillation:

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 8.15.52 AM

When the AO goes deep into the negative, there is a very good chance of the blocking up of the flow over North America which would likely lead to Arctic Blasts.  As you can see above, the latest AO, and the NAO looks similar, forecasts show a big dip by around the 20th of November. Some of the models show this, and some of the models do not show this.  Let’s see what actually happens, but as discussed yesterday, the pattern may be cycling in the 45 to 48 day range, give or take a day or two.  If the early October part of the pattern does return, I can see this dip happening.  It didn’t happen early in October, but there was room for the blocking to develop. In other words some ridging near Greenland was close to happening in this first cycle, but it broke down before fully developing. Maybe in this next cycle it will form? I am not sure yet, quite obviously.  Let’s see what today’s models show us.

Right now, it has turned colder. Temperatures are below average. The weather pattern is still evolving and setting up. We will look ahead in the next few blogs!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to and click on the blog there and joint in the conversation.


2017-11-09T08:54:25+00:00 November 7th, 2017|General|51 Comments


  1. Snow Miser November 7, 2017 at 8:26 am - Reply

    I, like you, am all for getting rid of Daylight Savings Time.

  2. Fred Nolan November 7, 2017 at 8:39 am - Reply

    I am all for getting rid of DST as well. But only after we spring back forward.

  3. Blue Flash November 7, 2017 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Carryover from yesterday’s discussion…..Since the new cycle began, around October 7 per Gary, we have only had 3 days of rain in the past 30. Only one of those days was over 1/2 inch, at least here in Independence. The GFS doesn’t show a drop of rain here for the next two weeks. So the summation of the first 45 days of the new cycle looks to me like a very dry pattern with only one day out of 45 having any significant precipitation. How can anyone see this as a wet pattern?

  4. Richard November 7, 2017 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Dry dry dry here too
    Oh wait seasonal differences are coming

  5. Urbanity November 7, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Daylight savings time should be set so that it gets dark around 9pm every day. Why waste the daylight during the working hours, golfers gotta golf, hunters have to hunt, fisherman want to fish, etc…, and if it’s light out when your wife is shopping statistics prove that to be a safer.

  6. Richard November 7, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Ok ok before MMike, Anonymous, and all who say I complain too much.
    It is just not looking that promising for a snowy winter.
    Sorry if I have such a negative attitude. I really hope I am proven wrong.

    • JoeK November 7, 2017 at 1:00 pm - Reply

      Based on what data? It has been a more active and wet October with a surplus of moisture in the KC Viewing area. We had 10 days or 1/3 of October with recorded precipitation. I am not being critical nor am I trying to call you out, I really am interested in your method of deduction. Just the opposite of Blue Flash, I am curious how this system looks dry as compared to the recent two winters.

      • JoeK November 7, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

        How this LRC not “system” looks dry as compared to the previous two winters 😀

  7. Steve November 7, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

    I could go with the LRTC (Lezaks Re-curing Time Cycle) where we split them both by a half hour and leave it that way. Maybe that would make everyone happy. Otherwise I would just want to do away with DST all together….

    • Frances Smith November 7, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      So glad to know you are anti-dst, and that you have such a good reason for ditching dst. I remember pre-dst when a child, and liked it much better then. Never heard anyone complain about standard time before it was changed. We were told it was for farmers and light use. If people research, those reasons prove to be bogus. Those who benefit most are retailers with late hours, golfers, and oil companies who profit from more fuel consumption. It’s hard to take the talk against excess fuel consumption seriously when the government has decided to encourage it by supporting continuation of dst. Imo, those who like it could simply get up an hour earlier, and start their business day an hour earlier. As for me, I’m very glad to have that hour back now that was “saved” for me.

  8. Rod November 7, 2017 at 9:48 am - Reply

    It may have been dry in the KC area where I’m located just south of Columbia I’ve had seven days of precipitation including just over 1.6 inches on October 15. To me I’ve had some significant rain events & October has been anything but dry. I’m really looking forward to what will happen in future cycles especially for central and eastern Missouri.

  9. Urbanity November 7, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

    If you look at maps over the last 40 days, and look at the ensemble CSV2 temp forecasts through early December, it appears KC is right on the dividing line between WTA and CTA, and the same goes for the precipitation forecast. IMHO, KC sits in perfect spot this year for weather systems to deepen as they move in, KC will get hammered this year if there are weather systems to be had.

  10. stl78 November 7, 2017 at 10:15 am - Reply

    Urban, wernt u just on the other side of the fence a wk or so ago? I apologize if im confusing u wit someone else

    • Urbanity November 7, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      @stl78, no I’ve been saying all along that KC sits on the western edge of where the good winter precip will be, meaning they should receive some snow (or rain). I believe just a few miles to the west however the weather will be very dull, and further west into central KS, north of hwy 50, it looks nil for much of anything.

      • stl78 November 7, 2017 at 12:58 pm - Reply

        My apologies

        • JoeK November 7, 2017 at 1:06 pm - Reply


          Did you get to enjoy the recent snows up in the great state of 10000 lakes?

  11. Snowflake November 7, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

    Are you ditching the new “CPH” term or whatever it was that you mentioned a couple of months ago that was going to replace “LRC”?

    Also – you mentioned a while back that you were on track to publish a peer-reviewed paper by the end of the year – is that still on track?

    • Gary November 7, 2017 at 11:12 am - Reply

      The CPH is being used for our submission to peer review. The LRC continues as it was named by you, the bloggers.


  12. Frankie November 7, 2017 at 10:53 am - Reply

    12z GFS is starting to pick up on the deep negative AO. Although, it is 300+ hours out. It does give us a snowstorm on the 22nd, but likely fantasy.

    • Snow Miser November 7, 2017 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Two weeks out, as usual. High POOF probability material.

      • Mike November 7, 2017 at 12:55 pm - Reply

        No need in being Johnny Rain Cloud. We have a society full of people who complain. I for one enjoy just looking at all of the models. Sort of fun if you let it be fun.

  13. Brad November 7, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

    We will see what happens with the GFS in the next few days and weeks to come, but Nov 22nd looks like this as of right now…

    • Richard November 7, 2017 at 11:30 am - Reply

      I see Ice ice baby just to my south on that one

    • sedsinkc November 7, 2017 at 2:38 pm - Reply

      Forecast for hour 348, lol. Pure fantasy at this time. Repost when we’re at T minus 120 hours. If it’s still there then I’ll give it some credibility.

  14. Terry November 7, 2017 at 10:56 am - Reply

    We all should no that the Models riddle with error right now. I’ve seen storm show up and there gone and there back. So like some of us we no we can’t trust models past 5 days. So right now we have to be Patient things will show up So i know where I live we have had some wet storms in October. Excited for this winter!

  15. Terry November 7, 2017 at 11:06 am - Reply

    Gary When dose or uselly is first day of the New LRC Start ? Don’t it around First week of December ?

    • Richard November 7, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

      First week of October

      • Terry November 7, 2017 at 12:11 pm - Reply

        Don’t mean that . I know we start the is the new LRC pattern start to set up between October 1 st to November 30th . When do we see the first day of the New LRC to starts circulating back through . For this year’s LRC 2017/2018 isn’t it the First week or so of December ?

  16. Clint November 7, 2017 at 11:11 am - Reply

    If the cycle length is around 45 days we should have a storm around the 22nd

    • Frankie November 7, 2017 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Exactly. This fantasy snowstorm may be our very first “real” chance of snow that has shown up on the models

    • Richard November 7, 2017 at 11:33 am - Reply

      Thats what I thought yesterday.
      Something might happen around Dec 22

  17. f00dl3 November 7, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    And if the AO dips negative you can be certain that the storm dives.

  18. Terry November 7, 2017 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    Don’t mean that . I know we start the is the new LRC pattern start to set up between October 1 st to November 30th . When do we see the first day of the New LRC to starts circulating back through . For this year’s LRC 2017/2018 isn’t it the First week or so of December ? When Does it actually start this year’s 2017/2018 pattern ?

  19. Kurt November 7, 2017 at 12:22 pm - Reply

    I don’t think he knows yet until the similarities from the first cycle start repeating it’s hard to identify the cycle length. The computer models are generating forecasts that aren’t easily verified as accurate yet to fit the lrc until he knows the cycle length.

    If there is too much cold air, I wonder if it will push the storm track too far south, it looks like the links show that as a possibility but again that’s so far out that we’ll have many solutions between now and the 22nd.

  20. Mr. Pete November 7, 2017 at 12:31 pm - Reply

    Believe I saw a very small snow flurry just a while ago in KCKS

  21. Urbanity November 7, 2017 at 12:58 pm - Reply

    Last I looked today was Nov 7th, did I just see some Nov 22nd weather talk? ahem.

  22. NoBeachHere November 7, 2017 at 4:50 pm - Reply

    Personally, I like fast time. I like having the extra light at the end of the day, even during late fall/winter. Yes, a lot the reasons originally stated for the time change was economy and war time related. Those days are gone and technology has really become the drive for farms, industry, retail and a lot of travelers. It almost doesn’t matter, to some degree, what time it is or even if it’s light or dark.

    While I think we will have some cold shots, I’m no sold on prolonged bouts of cold, until I see a good snow pack in Canada and the Artic Ice Pack expanding at a really good pace. I would still like to know how much the AMO is a factor, any ideas?

  23. j-ox November 7, 2017 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    DST = Daylight Saving Time

    Not – Daylight Savings Time

    Urbanity had it right on = reset the clocks EVERY DAY so that the sun sets at 9pm every night.

  24. Richard November 7, 2017 at 9:14 pm - Reply

    Estes Park CO has gotten one foot of snow today/tonight and its still coming down

  25. Roger November 7, 2017 at 11:11 pm - Reply

    Last 30 days of precipitation according to the National Weather Service. This pretty much lines up with the new LRC. Good luck to the western half of Kansas, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, and eastern Colorado. The long range outlook for precipitation is abysmal too.

    • j-ox November 7, 2017 at 11:26 pm - Reply

      We were dang dry Oct ’16 through March ’17…then look what happened.

      • Kurt November 8, 2017 at 4:07 am - Reply

        Yes we were dry after march 2017 as well, 60 to 75 percent of normal sitting at just over 25 inches 2017 year to date. There were far more dry areas that wet areas last lrc

  26. Lisa Lu November 8, 2017 at 7:44 am - Reply

    I’m all for staying in this natural time pattern without DST. IMO springing forward has a huge impact on human natural circadian rhythms and is far from beneficial. The earth has always worked perfectly with days growing longer or shorter naturally and I believe our bodies move in that same natural rhythm. I’ve personally noticed that the need for extra rest greatly decreases without DST.

  27. f00dl3 November 8, 2017 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Arn’t we always dry in November? Last 15 years November is always our “Indian Summer” where it’s dry and warm. This year it’s cold, but still dry none the less.

    • Gary November 8, 2017 at 7:53 am - Reply

      I got way behind this morning, so the new blog will come later today.


      • Richard November 8, 2017 at 8:11 am - Reply

        Yeah the shouting match round 3 about Alex Smith on 810
        whats with the blah blah blah to Nate, Gary.

        • Gary November 8, 2017 at 8:17 am - Reply

          Just me being a jerk. I shouldn’t have done that. But, it was just in the moment.

          • NoBeachHere November 8, 2017 at 9:45 am - Reply

            Gary, you’re just frustrated and passionate. While that doesn’t give you a pass, imagine all the bleeping out that would occur if there were mic’s in bars and homes recording out loud thoughts the last few weeks. 😂😂

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