The LRC & This Evolving Pattern For 2017-2018

/The LRC & This Evolving Pattern For 2017-2018

The LRC & This Evolving Pattern For 2017-2018

Good morning bloggers,

This month is the 30-year anniversary of where I experienced the cycling pattern according to the LRC for the first time. I had thought about it in the early to mid 1980s, but in November of 1987-1988 I noticed and began documenting my hypothesis as I noticed s January snowstorm looked rather similar to the one that happened in December. And, this was in Oklahoma City of all places.  These were two snowstorms in the same season producing nearly a foot of snow. There were many other storm systems that winter producing snow and ice in Oklahoma including one in November and one in March. It was a few years later when I made my first hypothesis in the early 1990s. This is when I hypothesized that the period of October 15th to November 5th, these three weeks, showcase the pattern well. Since then I have expanded this very important formation period to be from October 1st to November 30th. I do not believe you can dip back into last years pattern, in August and September, to find the cycle length. The pattern is always cycling and regularly, but the new pattern needs to evolve in October and  November. But, there is something new we have found in the past year.  There are these harmonics of the pattern, somewhat like mini-cycles, half cycles, one third cycles, or a one third harmonic of the pattern. I notice that October 7th and October 22nd lined up very well.  We showed this to you a couple of weeks ago.  This 15-day stretch may have been a 1/3 harmonic of the pattern, or perhaps we have a 45 day cycle, give or take few days.  We can test this out later in the month. If I am correct, then beginning November 22nd or so, that October 7th, or day 1 of this years LRC, part of the pattern will return and it will get rather exciting near KC for around a 17 day stretch.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A few snow flurries north of KC this morning.  Partly cloudy with a light northeast breeze at 10 mph.  High:  46°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a low near 32°
  • Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few light showers possible. The chance of measurable rain is 20%.  High: 43°
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Light winds. High:  46°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog there to join in the conversation.

Gary

2017-11-07T08:26:38+00:00 November 6th, 2017|General|36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Richard November 6, 2017 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Gary for some reason I too was thinking a 45 day cycle.
    If so, then we get some excitement Christmas week.

    I have noticed small patterns within the big pattern.
    For example the last half of each month we had rain. Must have been something to that.

  2. Three7s November 6, 2017 at 8:01 am - Reply

    I was just thinking about this. Assuming this is a 45-day cycle, we will have a 2-week period of active weather, followed by a 3+ week period of boring weather. Hitting on snows during that 2-week window in the next two cycles will make or break our winter unless a surprise hits in that 3-week “dry” period.

    • f00dl3 November 6, 2017 at 8:23 am - Reply

      Remember seasonal variances though! Some of these dry storms during the “boring” part of the pattern may not need as much moisture to create precipitation when the air can’t hold as much moisture.

  3. Richard November 6, 2017 at 8:20 am - Reply

    Gary
    Wow. Turned on 810 sports radio to listen to you.
    Whats with all of your screaming shouting about Alex Smith.
    Sorry it bordered on obnoxious. Don’t know if you got around to the weather because I turned it off.

    Now, when do you see any legit chance of our next precip ?

    • Three7s November 6, 2017 at 8:35 am - Reply

      Alex has been really good this season, but he stunk yesterday.

      • Richard November 6, 2017 at 8:50 am - Reply

        Agree. But Gary was out of control on 810.
        Alex did what Gary always expects. So why get so agitated.
        Chiefs are not going to the SB. Nothing new there.

    • Anonymous November 6, 2017 at 9:15 am - Reply

      You sure gripe a lot.

      • Richard November 6, 2017 at 10:18 am - Reply

        And you gripe about my gripes a lot.
        I apologize.

    • Randy Keller November 6, 2017 at 2:14 pm - Reply

      keep up the good work Gary! you the man!

      how bout them cowboys? beautiful game! kc sports just like the LRC… very predictable.

      Go Sooners

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE November 6, 2017 at 9:03 am - Reply

    There have been tons of systems going to our north past few weeks, they are dragging fronts through very regularly which is why we have been so chilly. Had a system drop by us over the weekend, KC wasn’t right spot this time but there was big severe weather in rust belt yesterday if anybody noticed we just barely missed that set up as St. Louis got t-storms. The next cycle might drop and dig these systems further south, so everybody needs to keep their shirt on regarding the potential of this winter because we just don’t know yet. In warmer months when moisture return/transport is better we might have fronts with round of thunderstorms ever 3-5 days based off how active these frontal passages have been. You have to read between the lines to really analyze the pattern, you cant just say its been boring for 3 weeks now so it will be boring for 3 weeks every cycle. If the weather was stable and sunny for 3 weeks with no systems anywhere across the continent, then you can start to make some assumptions but it has hardly been stable past few weeks

  5. JoeK November 6, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

    Gary,

    I enjoyed your radio show this morning. Thought your analysis of yesterdays game was spot on! Loved the passion. Your explanation of the harmonics within the cycle makes sense and as usual, makes learning about the LRC both challenging and a fun experience. It seems as though this winter has some interesting twists ahead. Looks like we may have the potential for 1 or 2 ice storms based on what we have seen thus far.

    • Gary November 6, 2017 at 10:00 am - Reply

      Thanks Joe, and to Richard’s assessment on being obnoxious, well it’s fine with me. I just speak my mind, get a little loud at times, but it is just my opinion. And, I am purposely not looking at twitter or tweeting about it as I don’t like it when they tell me to “stick to weather”. I am not the ultimate sports expert but I do know enough. I made my points and just like a politician it will likely be received 50/50.

      Onto the weather. This pattern is unique, never seen anything like it before. And, this is one of the main points of the LRC. Now, what exactly is it? If I am right, and I may be very wrong about this 45 day cycle as we have to experience it first, then there is room for a big AO negative, NAO negative once the trough intensifies in the middle of the nation, which may happen around the 20th to 25th of the month. I hope you are all enjoying my being a bit more transparent about it this year. Try not to blast us if we make a few forecasts that don’t pan out. We are going to lay it out there a bit more this year.

      Have a great day everyone. I am still dealing with a family medical issue so If I seem a bit distant, please understand it is just because I can’t be paying attention to the blog all the time.

      Have a great day. Let’s think about the potential 17 days of excitement that may very well be part of this pattern, likely are part of this pattern. In those other 28 days or so, remember, if there is cold air in place, other little systems can surprise us.

      The Winter Forecast is being put together soon. Can you see why we wait until mid to late November?

      Gary

      • Richard November 6, 2017 at 10:12 am - Reply

        Sorry Gary
        Obnoxious was not a word I should have used. I apologize.
        You are passionate about sports and weather.

      • Richard November 6, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

        So it is family medical issue, not a friend.
        Sorry Gary. Its not easy.

  6. Snowflake November 6, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Are we scrapping the “CPH” or whatever the other acronym was?

  7. Clint November 6, 2017 at 9:57 am - Reply

    The AO forecast will be great if it can verify. It is something to also keep in mind for future cycles.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

    • Frankie November 6, 2017 at 10:11 am - Reply

      Holy smokes! I don’t want to jump to any conclusions just yet, but if we really do have a near 45 day cycle, and the storm systems come back in place around the 20th of Nov like Gary was saying… combined with that deep of an AO and NAO, things really could get exciting.

  8. f00dl3 November 6, 2017 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    Theoretically if the AO dives like that, and our cycle repeats around the 20th of November, and our current below average trends can continue, based on the fact we were on the cold side of storm 1 and on the warm side of storm 2 and 3 – but had plenty of anvil precipitation behind the front from storm 3 – in theory we may see our average snowfall by Christmas.

    That can show you how fast our midwest weather can change.

  9. ginapuff November 6, 2017 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    Interesting things starting to show up!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

    • ginapuff November 6, 2017 at 3:15 pm - Reply

      Ice/snow mix 19th to 20th. The link did not post right.

  10. Urbanity November 6, 2017 at 3:48 pm - Reply

    I am just not seeing the excitement in this years pattern (which for me this year is probably a good thing), if models continue to verify on light to no precip then history show we will receive very little this year. I think the early October precip was carryover from last year, and if that is the case then we could look at one of the driest winters ever out here west of Salina.

    • Blue Flash November 6, 2017 at 5:34 pm - Reply

      Looks dry and cold to me.

      • Anonymous November 6, 2017 at 6:20 pm - Reply

        I agree

      • Richard November 6, 2017 at 6:21 pm - Reply

        I agree

    • JoeK November 6, 2017 at 6:38 pm - Reply

      Urbanity,

      I am just curious and very respectfully, Where are you getting dry from? We (KC area) had a surplus of rain in October. These systems cannot be from the previous pattern as demonstrated by the LRC for years. I understand you may be referring to Salina and you very well could be more dry as you have received less precipitation in October . Absent consistent trends, the models cant be relied on as they have demonstrated an inability to accurately forecast any weather event more than a few days to a week out. Also, we have to take into consideration the seasonal variances that impact each cycle. Western and central Kansas does seem to be hit or miss in terms of precipitation every year, but for KC, I really do believe that our viewing area will return to a more normalized winter with a few exciting stretches. Either way, it will be exciting to see how this LRC unfolds.

      • Anonymous November 6, 2017 at 8:19 pm - Reply

        JoeK, I hope you are right, and I do think KC has a decent chance at a few big storms this year. But if your are north and west of the KS turnpike, specifically from Topeka to Wichita, north and west of there to me looks awfully dry. I can see KC having 30+ inches of snow and Lawrence having 10-12. But I don’t know enough to really say obviously, I mean heck Lezak does this for a living and he would tell you by example just how difficult it is to know. I think Gary would agree however that central KS is in a drought and we can expect that to continue on through the winter.

        • JoeK November 6, 2017 at 11:38 pm - Reply

          Anonymous,

          if it helps, only 14% of Kansas is considered abnormally dry. Gary may not know at the moment however, once the new LRC is fully set up, he will definitely have a good idea of what to expect. For the sake of the large amount of farms in Kansas, I sure hope what we have seen thus far is what I believe it is, a good indicator of a wet pattern for Kansas and Missouri

    • Kai November 6, 2017 at 9:45 pm - Reply

      I don’t understand the talk coming from some of you about dry west of Salina? Didn’t areas west of Salina just last week have that area of snow/precipitation move through? That doesn’t speak dry to me.

      Also, it would really help if some of you on here from time to time would start specifically mentioning your location so we know exactly where on the map you are talking about. Thank you.

      To conclude, Gary, you should impelement some sort of interactive map so us bloggers’ locations (for those who’d be willing to share), can be seen by others so we know who sees what and when.

      • Urbanity November 7, 2017 at 8:18 am - Reply

        Kai, we had a dusting of snow move through a few days ago, less the .10-.15 liquid equivalency. Most people on the blog know I am talking west of Salina 30 miles. You probably didn’t realize this, but several counties out here had a top 5 driest summers ever recorded in these parts. That should speak dry to you now. We have ponds that were bank full from nice spring rains, but by September were 50% of normal pool. We did have one nice rain in early October that kind of saved our ground moisture for awhile, but it didn’t save my once nice green plush lawn.

  11. Brian November 6, 2017 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    Do you ever doubt the LRC Gary? Do you have moments where you think we’ll maybe this isn’t exactly what I thought it was?

  12. Brian November 6, 2017 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    well meant to say. Sorry phone autocorrects

  13. Kurt November 6, 2017 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    While October was very generous for us around St Joseph in terms to precipitation, if you look at Oct 1, 2016 to September 30th 2017 we were 8 to 10 inches below normal with only around 22 inches. Time will tell how the rest of the winter does.

    At least farmers should be able to complete their fall harvest but we will need well timed rains to offset the 7 plus inch deficit this year and the dry fall of 2016.

    Will be interesting to see what this lrc can produce in spring. Not counting on much in terms of total precipitation from Nov 1st through Mar 15th since this has been a drier period. Even if we get normal snow that’s only about 2 inches of moisture, maybe there will be other wet systems during the winter months this lrc

  14. Kurt November 6, 2017 at 11:10 pm - Reply

    While October was very generous for us around St Joseph in terms to precipitation, if you look at Oct 1, 2016 to September 30th 2017 we were 8 to 10 inches below normal with only around 22 inches. Time will tell how the rest of the winter does.

    At least farmers should be able to complete their fall harvest but we will need well timed rains to offset the 7 plus inch deficit this year and the dry fall of 2016.

    Will be interesting to see what this lrc can produce in spring. Not counting on much in terms of total precipitation from Nov 1st through Mar 15th since this has been a drier period. Even if we get normal snow that’s only about 2 inches of moisture, maybe there will be other wet systems during the winter months this lrc

    • JoeK November 6, 2017 at 11:29 pm - Reply

      Kurt,

      Rest assured, if you believe in the LRC ( as I do) the new pattern that is setting up looks to be favorable for your area. Regarding snow and crops, A decent snow over the winter is actually more beneficial than one may realize . The snow melts and the ground absorbs the moisture which makes for ideal planting. After planting, you want a minor amount of rain to help the crops germinate then hope for no big rains that could wash the crops out while they are germinating and building a strong root base. We have a family farm and I have watched this process for the past 25 years. The bottom line is that it isn’t necessarily the amount of rain as much as it is timing regarding healthy crops. I am glad you have finally received the much needed rains in your area. Seems as though it is either feast or famine in our area 😀

  15. Richard November 7, 2017 at 8:06 am - Reply

    Come on Gary
    Weather please on 810

  16. Blue Flash November 7, 2017 at 8:42 am - Reply

    Since the new cycle began, around October 7 per Gary, we have only had 3 days of rain in the past 30. Only one of those days was over 1/2 inch, at least here in Independence. The GFS doesn’t show a drop of rain here for the next two weeks. So the summation of the first 45 days of the new cycle looks to me like a very dry pattern with only one day out of 45 having any significant precipitation. How can anyone see this as a wet pattern?

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