What Is This Pattern We Are Moving Into?

/What Is This Pattern We Are Moving Into?

What Is This Pattern We Are Moving Into?

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday we looked into how three models all had a storm system for next Wednesday. And, I suggested that we should see if it still is showing up in the next few days. Well, it is no longer there and that was fast.  Today, we look at the past four years on November 1st to show the major differences in patterns from year to year.  A unique pattern continues to evolve right above us, but what is it?

Screen Shot 2017-11-03 at 7.25.51 AM

The upper left map shows the 500 mb flow from a couple of days ago, and the other maps show the flow on the same date from the previous three years.  The patterns are quite obviously very different.  According to the LRC the pattern sets up between October 1st and November 30th. We are just barely half way through this process. This is why we wait to issue our winter forecast as we are still learning more, a lot more.

Today’s weather pattern:

1

This mornings surface map shows a cold front moving into the northeastern United States and it trails southeast to northern Arkansas. A low pressure area has formed on the front near Fort Smith, Arkansas this morning.  Kansas City has northeast wind that is blowing towards this low pressure area and it is pretty cold, in the 30s this morning. What happens next creates some forecast challenges for the weekend. Will it be in the 60s or 50s Saturday and Sunday? This is our forecast problem.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

 

Gary

2017-11-06T07:47:34+00:00 November 3rd, 2017|General|34 Comments

34 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel November 3, 2017 at 7:50 am - Reply

    Gary,
    At least there is a dip in the middle of U.S. this year! Maybe some cold air and moisture will combine and get us a white Christmas! Have a great weekend!
    Michael

  2. Snow Miser November 3, 2017 at 8:28 am - Reply

    I am convinced that if you search through enough of these patterns from previous years, you’ll be able to find groups of similar ones. Eventually you’ll be able to categorize and classify them, which will help in your forecasts.

    • numb3rsguy November 3, 2017 at 10:16 am - Reply

      I’d be very interested to see a retroactive analysis of all of the LRCs dating back to when weather maps were first drawn daily in the late 1800’s. Although I am not aware of where we can access the information, I know Gary and the team have at least 30 years of LRC data analyzed from when he first discovered it. Wouldn’t it be cool if there was an LRC database where we could go back to 1888 (when KC records began) and look at summaries of all of the patterns? I too am of the belief that although not identical, some patterns are similar and we can probably learn from comparing them. Might also lead to cycles that have a period of decades instead of months. Like, what made the winters of the late 70’s so harsh, and what made the summers of the 30’s record breaking heat?Gary, can we make that happen?

    • numb3rsguy November 3, 2017 at 10:17 am - Reply

      Gary,

      I know you have a lot on your plate with analyzing this year’s pattern and working on your peer review paper, but I think an LRC almanac on this website would be amazing.

    • Three7s November 3, 2017 at 10:18 am - Reply

      Yeah, I agree that every that every year the LRC sets up is unique, but there are features within every pattern that should be similar to other patterns in other years. Not in its entirety, but just a few minor details. Though, society always has the habit of comparing one year or pattern to another

    • RickMcKC November 3, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

      I think that the NWS long range climate forecast uses analogs from previous years, along the lines of what you are suggesting, though I am not sure it is pattern based in the same way that the LRC (or CPH?) is.

  3. Urbanity November 3, 2017 at 8:39 am - Reply

    I don’t understand the idea, doesn’t a one day snapshot only reflect the pattern for that day? Well if that is the pattern then we are screwed this LRC fiscal year, we are talking dry to very dry weather throughout most of the USA! This year is groundhog day from last year, “it’s going to be dry and cold/mild/cold/mild, and it’s going to last for the rest of the LRC year.”

  4. BSMike November 3, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Your map shows a cold front pushing into north Texas (Dallas/ Ft Worth) yet their temps are 88, 93, and 88 the next 3 days. 🤔

    • Alex Pickman November 3, 2017 at 12:26 pm - Reply

      His map shows the 500mb flow (18,000 up in the atmosphere) from a couple days ago. This was how the surface set up looks at 6am CDT on the same day…

      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20171101.html

      That weak storm system in north Texas (seen as just a just ripple in the upper level flow in the map Gary posted) brought cooler weather and rain on Halloween, which was then followed by Hot/Air pushing in on the 1st with a high fire danger.

  5. Mr. Pete November 3, 2017 at 9:34 am - Reply

    Just a few days ago it was supposed to be in the 70s on Sunday. What happened???

    • Three7s November 3, 2017 at 10:24 am - Reply

      It depends on the timing of the cold front.

  6. Richard November 3, 2017 at 11:06 am - Reply

    So next weeks wintry event is gone ?

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 3, 2017 at 11:35 am - Reply

      Never was wintery, it was just rain, but yeah it was gone from the 6am GFS. not sure what the noon GFS will say, it comes out shortly.

      • Richard November 3, 2017 at 12:06 pm - Reply

        Tuesday night on kshb (I know thats a long time ago) Gary said a winter component.
        But its gone now. Oh well.

        • Anonymous November 3, 2017 at 4:05 pm - Reply

          Yeah, but he also showed the model map…the storm had a winter component on the north side of the storm, but that was north of us.

  7. Kurt November 3, 2017 at 11:42 am - Reply

    Finally a sunny day. Hope farmers can get rest of their crops harvested.

  8. Frankie November 3, 2017 at 12:04 pm - Reply

    The GFS has been so boring for about a week now. Waiting for something to show up…

  9. Richard November 3, 2017 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    Maybe cold now. But still dry. This does not look good. I don’t see Gary giving us any hope. Yet

    • MMike November 3, 2017 at 1:11 pm - Reply

      Still dry?

      Most of the area has seen close to 5 inches of moisture in the last 4.5 weeks…above the average we normally see.

      Plus, we’re now in the time of year where low monthly averages happen. So, drier times are normal.

      Remember last October and November’s weather told us a hot and dry spring and summer…at least that’s what most were screaming…didn’t happen.

      Winter weather gone from the models…not a surprise, it doesn’t snow in KC in Nov…it can, but it’s not likely every year.

  10. Clint November 3, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Here ya go, the Canadian has a little bit of something.

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017110312/240/snku_acc.us_c.png

  11. MMike November 3, 2017 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    Kind of a pointless blog today.

  12. Fred Nolan November 3, 2017 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    It sure would be nice to see the sun again sometime soon.

  13. Richard November 3, 2017 at 1:47 pm - Reply

    Mow/mulch instead of raking. Mow leaves frequently, every one inch layer or so.
    KState advice

    http://kansashealthyyards.org/index.php?option=com_allvideoshare&view=video&slg=tired-of-raking-try-mowing&Itemid=345

  14. Farmermike November 3, 2017 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    This new pattern is really starting to stink. The fall wheat needs a drink so badly and nothing in sight. here in n/c kansas we are hurting for some rain or the wheat will “freezer burn” this winter.

    • Anonymous November 3, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

      We’ve had plenty of rain here in Lawrence…pattern lookin noticably better than the last three winters.

  15. Rockdoc November 3, 2017 at 2:40 pm - Reply

    The cold front that is due to arrive on Sunday appears to arrive earlier than thought based on the NAM/GFS 12z models. The NAM 3K shows it coming in around 7-8 am, while the GFS has it coming in sometime in the early to mid afternoon. This is based on both wind direction and temperatures. The temps also look to be colder than what was on the news this morning. Instead of the upper 60’s it looks like it may end up being in the 50s to low 60s, assuming these models verify. One other note on this. The EURO shows temperature anomalies on the warmer side until late afternoon with it being 8-10 degrees above which may put it closer to the 70 degree mark. I would prefer if Sunday followed the EURO model for when I’m outside.

  16. Rockdoc November 3, 2017 at 2:42 pm - Reply

    Yo Gary, I’m in moderation…..it appears that the technical glitch was never repaired. And neither was my ability to add my avatar.

  17. Nate November 3, 2017 at 4:59 pm - Reply

    The leaves aren’t dropping and the Geese aren’t in town yet either

  18. REAL HUMEDUDE November 3, 2017 at 7:44 pm - Reply

    Another big ,and quite possibly phantom , Storm showing up last GFS run middle of the month. Some snow, I didn’t copy link but assume most can access free GFS

  19. Rockdoc November 3, 2017 at 10:33 pm - Reply

    Just checking in Gary and it appears that my comments are still blocked. I initially commented at 2:40 and again at 2:42 about my comments being blocked/moderated.

    It is now 10:26pm. I have been effectively been blocked the entire day so I cannot interact with other bloggers. This has been going on for well over a week.

    Gary, this is unacceptable. I’m done with your site and your incompetent IT group. I’ll find some other weather group to join and I’ll let them know what goes on at Weather2020. Crap site. I’m done.

    BYE!

  20. f00dl3 November 4, 2017 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Fact of the matter is the LRC – upper level pattern – is very favorable for storms. During the first few months of transition the surface moisture is not in synch. Be patient people, it will snow, likely more than average, this winter!

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