Good morning bloggers,

This Thursday begins with a surface cyclone developing and tracking across the plains states.  This would certainly be an interesting severe weather set up in the spring, but today it will likely only produce a few showers.  I plotted the surface map this morning and there is a low pressure center near the Oklahoma/Kansas border due south of Dodge City, KS.  It is difficult to plot any very obvious fronts in today’s set up, but as this low moves by, the winds will shift to the north and cold air will move in. Look how the winds all blow towards the low pressure area. Remember, winds will blow towards low pressure and away from high pressure with a deflection of crossing the isobars. I drew in the isobars, the lines of equal pressure. This is how you analyze these surface maps. In the spring, if this were 7 PM instead of 7 AM there would likely be a pretty good risk of severe thunderstorms.  But, today, due to a lack of any low level heating, there is not much risk at all. A few strong thunderstorms may still form over far southeastern Missouri later today, and a few showers are possible near KC.

Scanned Image

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Areas of fog and some drizzle this morning. There may be a few rain showers. The wind will shift from the east to the northeast, and then to the north at 5-15 mph.  High:  55°
  • Tonight: Decreasing clouds with winds out of the north at 5-15 mph. Low:  39°
  • Friday:  A few clouds mixed with sunshine with light easterly winds.  High:  55°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  65°
  • Sunday:  Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the north. High:  70°

Don’t Forget The Time Change Is This Weekend: Fall Back One Hour Saturday Night!

Next Weeks Storm?

2

All of the models that I have looked at and analyzed have an interesting storm getting caught in the southern branch of the jet stream.  It has my attention, but it will be somewhat suspect for a while, especially on what it will produce at each location. It is not showing up as a large feature, and there is a stronger northern stream about to take over. The one interesting thing, however, it that all of the models have a somewhat similar solution. It is less than a week away. So, it is is something that we will learn more about today. Will it continue to show up? This map above shows the wave of energy from the GFS model. For fun today, I will use three different models. This map above is the GFS, and these next two maps show the Canadian Model solution showing the surface forecast and the European Model solution showing the precipitation type, all valid next Wednesday:

4

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 6.51.56 AM

As you can see, there is a winter component to this storm and the rain/snow line is forecast to be located near Kansas City next Wednesday.  Again, let’s see if this continues to show up. By tomorrow, we will then within five days of this possible storm, and then we can pay a little closer attention to it. We will need to analyze the trend in the models.

Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation over at Weather2020.com and we can discuss today’s models and answer any questions you may have. Have a great day

Gary