There Is Something About This Pattern

/There Is Something About This Pattern

There Is Something About This Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City just had its second coldest Halloween high temperature in recorded history with a high of 37° at KCI Airport. Snow fell in many areas, but I am still waiting to see my first snowflake of the season.  It titled the blog, “There is Something About This Pattern” because, well, there is something about this pattern that I find just fascinating, but I have not quite put my LRC fingerprint on it yet. What is developing right before our eyes is a unique pattern, one that has never happened before,  and one that I think will provide some weather set ups that will perform this winter to our satisfaction. And by that, I mean that we won’t be getting to March and wondering how Kansas City once again missed just about everything, like the past three winters.

The Weather Pattern Valid At 7 PM Central Time Today:

1

There is a pretty large upper level circulation over North America developing right now. The ridges (the squiggly lines) are in favorable position to produce an Arctic air mass. But, is one forming?

3

An Arctic air mass is forecast to grow during this next week. This map above shows the temperature forecast from last nights GFS model valid next Wednesday morning.  The white areas indicate 20 to 40 degrees below zero.  The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are going higher into the positive territory right now:

Screen Shot 2017-11-01 at 7.00.31 AM

The big question I have and we are still monitoring, “is this pattern capable of producing strong upper ridges and upper highs over Greenland? I lean towards this answer to being yes, but we have to see it actually happen first, and not on the models, but actually happen in real time.  This next forecast map is just one of those fantasy 16-day forecasts from a computer model, this one the GFS model from the overnight 06z 1 AM model run (Next week 06z will be midnight central time after the time change).

2

As you can see in the squiggly line. A big ridge forms right over Greenland, and an upper high is closed off near the North Pole north of Alaska.  This would likely be the beginning of a huge dip of the NAO and AO into negative territory, but will this happen?  It is something to monitor.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

The temperatures warmed up to 38 degrees before sunrise from the early evening 32 degrees from yesterday.  This warm up was spawned by a nice southerly breeze that developed over the plains last night.  This warm up should continue into Thursday.

  • Today: Mostly cloudy. High:  55°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy.  Low:  49°
  • Thursday: A few periods of clouds mixed with sunshine. The wind shifting to the north during the afternoon.  High:  64°

There is a lot to monitor in this developing weather pattern.  Let us know if you have any questions.  Thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog Experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation.
Gary

2017-11-02T07:36:11+00:00 November 1st, 2017|General|34 Comments

34 Comments

  1. Three7s November 1, 2017 at 7:48 am - Reply

    I noticed that area of high pressure on the 6z as well at 384 hours, and right on cue, a trough looks to come barreling into the west coast, which I’d assume, would have much colder air with it. As you said, that’s fantasy land as far as models are concerned, but it’s something to watch.

  2. f00dl3 November 1, 2017 at 7:58 am - Reply

    Look at the flow over the northern plains right now – wow, just wow. Even if AO and NAO and every index stays positive, we will have periods of a week or two with numerous fast moving storm systems, each capable of producing 1-3″ of snow. Provided the pattern over ND/SD/NE/MN translates south with the jet stream and buckling occurs, worst case scenario, we could see a two periods where in 3 weeks we get a half dozen 1-4″ snows – which if we are in the right spot 1/3 of the time would mean we still see average snow this winter.

  3. f00dl3 November 1, 2017 at 7:59 am - Reply

    If we get periods where the flow buckles enough for those pieces of energy to consolidate and pull gulf moisture up, boom.

  4. Jsquibble November 1, 2017 at 8:45 am - Reply

    I was on the other blog this morning reading the “cousin” version of the LRC and he says that with the current pattern we will have huge artic blast with big winter storms.
    Gary my question for you, if you both believe in the cycling pattern how will this produce artic blasts if the indexes are projected to surge positive?

    • Gary November 1, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

      I am not sure what he said exactly, I assume you are talking about Doug Heady. It is easy to make big and broad statements like this, but I still urge patience. I am not ready to go there at all yet. I do see signs of these potential Arctic blasts, and it can be seen within todays blog entry, but I continue to stress patience.

      Gary

      • Richard November 1, 2017 at 1:27 pm - Reply

        I thought Doug was part of the 2020 team

    • Clint November 1, 2017 at 1:06 pm - Reply

      Doug believes the cycle sets up before the pattern. I am not sure how you can have a cycle before you have a pattern, maybe he can come on and explain sometime.

      • f00dl3 November 1, 2017 at 6:35 pm - Reply

        Upper level features may lag behind as they “mix” to the surface.

  5. Frankie November 1, 2017 at 8:55 am - Reply

    A few days ago everyone seemed to be in full panic mode talking about how this winter will again be warm and dry. Like I said, let Gary do the forecasting! Let’s keep our fingers crossed and wait for the pattern to set up.

    • Three7s November 1, 2017 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Nothing’s even happened yet, but I don’t enter panic mode until around Thanksgiving. If it stays warm/dry through that period, that almost never bodes well for winter in the KC metro. People continue to say that temperatures have been as warm as last year, but I’m not seeing it. We’ve had MULTIPLE freezes, far more precipitation events, and more consistent cold, all before we even had our first freeze last year. We are going to be entering a warmer/dryer phase coming up over the next couple of weeks, but just the first half of this LRC alone gives me a lot of hope for this winter.

      • Frankie November 1, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

        I agree. About a week ago Gary said his preliminary look into winter would be at least average snow for KC. We average 18″ and I think the averages have to balance themselves out sometimes.

        • Urbanity November 1, 2017 at 9:54 am - Reply

          Yeah, but there are a lot of averages changing as time goes on. Historical averaging cannot have meaning if one believes in permanent climate change, permanent meaning over the course of a few generations. I’m not one to speculate on climate change because I do not know enough about it, and I don’t believe in man-made climate change (unless your talking about local change from deforestation or wind energy farms), but I can tell you it does not snow in Kansas like it used to. Even the recent good years pale in comparison to the era I grew up in, and all the old timers will tell you the same thing…even so, most of them were not alive during the dirty thirties so they may have skewed perspective as well.

          • Mark November 1, 2017 at 2:16 pm - Reply

            When I was a kid growing up in the 70’s, I seem to remember a decent amount of snow every year. I know we were always sledding, building snowmen, and/or building forts.

  6. Urbanity November 1, 2017 at 10:05 am - Reply

    @MMike, it is funny how the squeaky wheel got the most attention with yesterdays snow system. Albeit, it was a very small storm, but it would have challenged the snowfall competition in KC for the first inch of the year. If it wasn’t for the LRC I would feel more confident about snowfall this year in central Kansas, but I am cursed by the knowledge of the repeating pattern hypothesis discovered by Mr. Lezak.

    The only real question I have for Mr. Lezak is, what’s more important during the LRC formation, precipitation events in our area, or the number of storm systems moving across the US. Can a pattern that supplies multiple storms across the northern states during the LRC development period translate to storms across our area as winter sets in. I have been thinking all these years that weather events in our area were the most important indicator during the LRC formation.

    I also appreciate your thoughts on my wife. Enjoy the day.

    • Gary November 1, 2017 at 12:16 pm - Reply

      Urbanity,

      One of the most important features to look for is how the waves rotate around each of these storm systems. Where did the storm truly reach peak strength. Where did the storm systems reach their weakest strength or miss entirely. I am doing this analysis now and it is not an easy one to do. The storm systems that track to our north likely will stay north in future cycles. If the AO and NAO can dip deep negative, this is when storm systems can be forced farther south and then suddenly it is pure winter. But, will this happen at all this winter?

      I didn’t mean to “curse” and get you to know too much by having an understanding of the LRC. Let’s hope it is setting up favorably, because if it is, then the curse becomes a blessing.

      Gary

  7. numb3rsguy November 1, 2017 at 10:41 am - Reply

    I’ve found that I have to take a step back and look at the big picture. I live in eastern Iowa, and I’ve been thinking how cold it has been this season so far, but then I look at the stats, and we are actually still above average. It’s just that the last two winters have been our 3rd and 8th mildest since records began here in 1893, so even though it feels cold this year, I’m comparing it to the last two years, and we are actually still above the long term average this year.

    If you graph the snowfall in Kansas City and add a regression line, the value in 1900 is 21.8″ annually, but in 2000, it is 18.7″, so it appears that in a century we’ve lost about 3.1″ of snow per year on average. On the extreme ends of the records, 1888 would have a 22.3″ snow value, and 2016 has a 18.2″ value, so nearly 4.1″ loss since records began, which is about an 18% reduction in snow over the last 130 years. Please keep in mind that these are averages, we still have ups and downs each year and extremes scattered throughout.

    Just some numbers for you from the numb3rsguy. 🙂

    • numb3rsguy November 1, 2017 at 10:42 am - Reply

      3.1″ of snow loss per century, not per year. 🙂

      • Waldo weather November 1, 2017 at 2:46 pm - Reply

        That was great. Thanks for that!

    • Urbanity November 1, 2017 at 10:44 am - Reply

      you da man

  8. Brad November 1, 2017 at 1:09 pm - Reply

    Omg, is that something to watch on the canadian run around out 9th???

  9. Richard November 1, 2017 at 6:09 pm - Reply

    Gary not on kshb tonight
    Do you see snow next week Gary ?

  10. f00dl3 November 1, 2017 at 6:33 pm - Reply

    So is the cycle length 57 days? Today’s 500 map lines up almost perfect with Sept. 5 with exception that the jet stream is further south and a ripple of energy out west where the anticyclone was.

    • Richard November 1, 2017 at 7:06 pm - Reply

      Sept 5 was the old lrc

    • JoeK November 1, 2017 at 8:23 pm - Reply

      foodl3,

      I believe the cycle will be between 49-52 days this year. I sometimes wonder if the pattern sets up a little earlier or if the pattern sets up at different times every year. I trust Gary and am sure he has evaluated that however, that Sept 5th-6th minor cold front and precip. seems like it could have repeated.Either way, trying to get a handle on the cycle and pattern is definitely challenging and fun at the same time.

    • Kai November 2, 2017 at 12:14 am - Reply

      Maybe it is just a residue of the old pattern and where we get our wild card from? If today’s map matches up with September 5th (which is obviously from the old pattern), could we then expect that there be a possibility when we finally know the pattern length, that today’s pattern be completely different, or could a residue from the old usher itself in for two years in a row? Is that even possible?

  11. Terry November 1, 2017 at 9:36 pm - Reply

    October not September

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