Important Weather Parameters To Monitor This Week

/Important Weather Parameters To Monitor This Week

Important Weather Parameters To Monitor This Week

Good morning bloggers,

As we begin this week, let us begin with announcing the winner of our little contest we had back in late September.  Glen in Trenton reported snowflakes in Grundy county Friday.  These were officially our first snowflakes in the viewing area and it happened on October 27th. Joe Kenig is the winner of “It’s A Sunny Life” the beautiful children’s book with a great weather section in the back.  Joe picked October 27th at 12:30 AM, and he is the winner.  A great prediction made 31 days before on September 26th.  Thank you for participating.  The snowflake contest continues and you can enter for three more weeks.  There is no sign of a snowstorm showing up at the moment as this weather pattern continues to set up.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Partly cloudy and windy.  Northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. High: Near 50°
  • Tonight: Cold for tailgating.  Winds continue through the game with temperatures in the 40s. Go Chiefs! Beat the Broncos!
  • Halloween: Periods of clouds and cold.  A very slight chance of a shower.  It will be pretty cold dropping into the 30s for trick or treating.   High:  44°   

Did you experience the sunset last night?  Here is a picture with Sunny The Weather Dog posing.  You can see the virga in the sunset, the precipitation falling and evaporating before reaching the ground. It was rather incredible.

DSCN4590

Weather Discussion:

What is this weather pattern that is evolving before our eyes?  We are still identifying where storm systems are reaching their peak strength and where storm systems are their weakest.  This is one of the three main aspects of the LRC.  The most critical period to analyze is between October 1st and November 30th.  This is likely where most of the first cycle of this years pattern will have been completed.  Things to watch closely:

  • California:  It has been very dry thus far over the Golden State and storm systems have not been able to reach that far south. There are a few systems to monitor in the next two weeks and how these track and produce will say a lot for what will happen this winter out west
  • The Arctic Oscillation: The AO is suddenly forecast to go high into the positive territory. How often will that happen this winter as a high positive winter is likely a warm one, but is this just a short phase?

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 7.12.48 AM

As you can see above, the AO is forecast to surge towards +4 this week. Let’s see what really happens, and below you can see the rainfall forecast for these next ten days from last nights GFS Model:

1

On this map, California doesn’t completely get missed, but this pales in comparison to how they got blasted by wet storms last year in this developmental period of the cycling pattern.

Who stayed up late to watch that incredible 13-12  World Series Game 5? Houston and the Dodgers went at it as the pitching failed and the bats came alive.  They lead 3 games to 2 as the series heads back out to LA.  Thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions.  Have a great day!

Gary

2017-10-31T08:23:01+00:00 October 30th, 2017|General|49 Comments

49 Comments

  1. Bill in Lawrence October 30, 2017 at 7:32 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Monday morning to you sir and to all the Weather 20/20 Bloggers!!!

    Had 24 and 25 this past weekend so two very hard freezes in Washington Creek Valley this weekend. Talk about a new pattern-7 out of the last 10 days we have had a north wind-never saw that last year!!!

    Take these next statements with a huge grain of salt as I am just a history teacher, but that has never stopped me from wearing the clown suit LOL

    I think this pattern in interesting for sure. Especially these past 5 days-this Thursday-Halloween part( do we all it the Halloween part of each cycle??) has some interesting players that could provides some weather in both winter and spring and maybe even in the summer. With the set up today and tomorrow, I could even see Oklahoma and Texas in on some action if today’s cold front were to suppress the little short wave coming out of Colorado. These past 5 days just look interesting to me. Even with the AO going pretty positive over the next 7-10 days and the pattern going zonal (which is not surprising considering how energized October was overall) we are still not seeing any huge warm ups. A quick glance at the 06Z temps from the GFS looks like mostly 50’s and 40’s for highs with just a few 60’s but no 70’s. That is a far cry from last year.

    Of course there are issues with this pattern-this is eastern Kansas and western Missouri when are there not issues with a pattern-mainly that the mean ridge is looking to set up about 200 miles too far inland which is going to put us on the edge of most precip especially in winter. We just do not live in the best winter area-I mean we have 3 warm air sources and only one cold air source-there are always going to be warm and dry periods in our winters accept for those every 10-15 year ones. Historical diaries bear this out as well. So, while there are issues with this pattern, I am still very excited-it may dinking and dunking down the field all winter, but if I get 14 inches like I think I will, I will be very pleased. 14 inches compared to the last few years will seem like I live in Winter Park!!

    Just some random thoughts

    Have a great Monday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  2. Three7s October 30, 2017 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Just as I said yesterday, the models have been showing a positive AO for a good week now. It’s gonna happen, the question is how long?

    • Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 9:54 am - Reply

      Since Oct 1 the chart shows positive with barely a touch below so unless I’m missing it I’m not sure where it is clearly seen to have been negative. It was forecasted, not by Gary, but the chart he showed forecasted a pretty good drop into the negative and it didn’t.

    • Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 10:32 am - Reply

      My reply wasn’t meant for this part see a little further below

  3. Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 8:38 am - Reply

    So the AO was forecasted to go negative but didn’t and now forecasted to go positive, probably will. Gary I thought you had said something on air last Friday about a potential strong front this coming Thursday. Did I not hear you correctly or is that just now off the table as I have seen several forecast, by many sources, showing this Sunday could be a toasty day (for November standard), and a warm Saturday? I hope not. I believe, according to KCI stats, our last snowfall of greater then 2.5 inches in one day was Feb 4, 2014, and that day was 7.5. Wow that is a long time. Now maybe within a 24 hour period we have had greater then 2.5 inches snow in the last 3 years, but in one calendar day it has been a very long time since we had a 3 plus inch snow. O to have the winter of 2009/2010, Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009 (my first ever) or winter of 2010/2011 with yer another blizzard warning in January 2011. Never experienced blizzard warnings then to have it two years in a row may have really over worked the winter atmosphere here (JK).

    • Three7s October 30, 2017 at 8:42 am - Reply

      It did go negative. Gary, clearly, showed the chart that shows the AO dip into negative territory. Now it’s going back into positive territory, that doesn’t mean the negative dip never happened.

      • Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

        Ugh replied to the wrong person, so let’s try this again. The chart shows since October 1 it has been positive. So clearly the forecast from last week that was show that indicated a pretty good drop in the negative territory did not happen. Not saying Gary is wrong just the model that said the AO would go negative and it hasn’t. Since October 1 it has not droppped below the line, so not sure why you are saying clearly it has when the graph does not show that.

    • numb3rsguy October 30, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

      Indeed, the last time Kansas City had a 1 day snowfall total of 3″ or greater was back in the 2013-2014 winter in February. For a two day total, the last time Kansas City had a 3″+ snow was in February of 2015 where we had a 2 day total of 3.2″, and the time before that was in March of 2014 with 3.1″. Officially, the last time we had a 2-day snowfall of greater than 10″ was February of 1993. nearly 25 years! I know people on the south side got greater than 10″ with the Groundhog Day Blizzard in 2011, but officially, it’s been almost 25 years. If you want a 2 day total greater than 12″, you have to go back to 1962…

      • KS Jones October 30, 2017 at 9:54 am - Reply

        Out this way, we got 8″ of snow through the night of January 20-21, 2016.

      • Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

        True for KCI stats on 10’inch snow totals, now where I live, in Leavenworth, Christmas Eve 2009 was well over 10 inches as well as January 2011. Sometimes i amazed at how close I live to KCI but rain or snow totals can be so different. Truely shows a few miles can make a huge difference.

  4. numb3rsguy October 30, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    As far as Blizzard warnings go at KCI, we had one on 2/1/11 (groundhog day blizzard), one on 12/24/09 (Christmas eve blizzard), and one on 12/07/09 (don’t remember this one). Official “Blizzard Warnings” don’t go back farther than that, so I don’t have a record of blizzards before 2009.

  5. Richard October 30, 2017 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Too many trees still hanging onto their leaves.
    Then there are the ones that turned brown. Boring fall.
    We are now in zone 6 for planting. We are the new southwest.
    I predict another low snowfall. Less than 10.

    • Three7s October 30, 2017 at 9:28 am - Reply

      If that happened, it would be the first time since the 1880s, at least, that the metro has not has not had at least 10 inches of snow 3 consecutive years. I would be VERY surprised if that happened.

    • Randy Keller October 30, 2017 at 2:29 pm - Reply

      yup pretty obvious really..

      what ever Gary says though is money to me.

      GO SOONERS

  6. Urbanity October 30, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

    The NOAA has an omega block forming over the west Central Plains and Rockies in their 6-14 day forecast, even showing well above normal precip in southern Cali. How accurate this is who knows. But should the Omega verify for the first half of November that would not bode well for Kansas precip west of Topeka, and I seem to remember that very thing being the issue last November. If we have a new weather pattern it sure appears at the present time to be very similar to last year’s pattern. When you look at locations from Russell, KS to Olathe, KS, the weather stats are very similar, but while there was more precip in the KC area as you go west there has been less precip than previous years. Russell’s .08″ of rain in October is by far the least amount of rain they have received in October in many many years (and they have only received 4.26 inches since June 1).

    I anticipate a carbon copy of last year west of Manhattan, a lot colder though, I do think KC area will be slightly below average overall but probably will see one massive storm dump a combination of rain/sleet/snow which could push season snowfall totals to near or above average. The previous years when we had big snows, or more regular snowfalls, central Kansas had decent precip events in November. Right now there does not appear that will happen for at least the first half of November.

    • Richard October 30, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

      Urbanity

      I agree.
      This feels like another non winter.

      Hope not

      • Joe October 30, 2017 at 10:38 am - Reply

        Perhaps a record for the warmest winter in KC history? Need to move north of 80 if you want a real winter.

        • Urbanity October 30, 2017 at 11:32 am - Reply

          Joe, I don’t see it being anywhere near the warmest in history, there is reason to believe that cold air will be traveling down through eastern Kansas this winter.

          • JoeK October 30, 2017 at 5:20 pm - Reply

            Urbanity,

            Agreed, We have already had a number of cold shots that will most likely gain in strength as the months progress. In addition, in order to be record breaking warm, we would need some massive warm fronts coming through that would raise our temps to way above average for extended periods of time much like we experienced the past two winters.

      • Anonymous October 30, 2017 at 11:32 am - Reply

        Naw, its going to be more snow that the last three by a fair margin, just as we’ve had systems coming through all year.

        • Richard October 30, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

          We’ve had cold w/o systems. We’ve had “dry” storms as Gary likes to call them.
          How can a storm be dry ?
          My point is the cold has not had moisture with it. Since Oct 1. Such as what happened Saturday and tomorrow will be cold but dry.
          Or is my memory wrong ?

          • Terry October 30, 2017 at 12:50 pm - Reply

            We have had same wet Events and in the from of Cold fronts and rains he’s said during the winter time if the Waves coming up the Fronts if they don’t dig out west yes they can be Dry Cold Fronts in the winter time and he said to in Previous blogs or on hes Blog he had told one of the bloggers that there is or was Evidence that at least one of these waves will dig to are more out west or in kansas / Missouri river Valley for good Snow event. Read Oct 26 blog hes talks about the 1st 21days of the blog and what he’s likes so far about this year’s LRC pattern.

          • f00dl3 October 30, 2017 at 12:50 pm - Reply

            We have it happen every year we have dry storms in once cycle and wet storms later on in the cycle. Be patient everyone! The transitional phase here is the upper level pattern not being in sync with the surface moisture availability. Things will be different after the 2nd week of January!

            • JoeK October 30, 2017 at 2:45 pm - Reply

              Agreed, every cycle has seasonal variances thus dry storms become wet the next time around and wet storms or fronts can dive deeper or shift. For me personally, I so not place much stock in the AO and NAO model forecasts as they seem to have a higher rate of inaccuracy. I am still encouraged by the beginning of this LRC and believe we will experience a more normal winter in the KC area. Only time will tell

              • Gary October 30, 2017 at 4:25 pm

                Joe,

                Congratulations on winning our first snowflake contest. You won, and I would like to sign you a book of It’s A Sunny Life. Email me with your address and who you want me to sign it to. [email protected]

            • Terry October 30, 2017 at 6:57 pm - Reply

              I agree with you guys I wait and get all the facts And I don’t throw in the towel too early I do believe that have a good Winter here in the KC Metro area

  7. Jason October 30, 2017 at 9:49 am - Reply

    I still have that snow blower I bought 3 plus years ago for my long driveway. I fire it up every so often to make sure it runs. Wonder if it actually throws snow? I’ll probably have to move to ever find out.

    • Adam October 30, 2017 at 9:54 am - Reply

      You could get a snowmaker and fill your driveway with snow every once in awhile so it could get a workout. 😁

      • Jason October 30, 2017 at 12:57 pm - Reply

        Good idea!

    • Randy Keller October 30, 2017 at 2:31 pm - Reply

      Jason.. I live near Lincoln Ne same deal here… NO SNOW

      Try Snowy Range Wy

      GO SOONERS

    • JoeK October 30, 2017 at 5:13 pm - Reply

      Jason,

      I believe you will be able to use that snow blower this year. We have had many systems work through our area already this year and we aren’t half way into the new LRC yet. Remember the dates of the recent systems and look for December to be interesting. There are definitely some players this year compared to 2016/2017

  8. BSMike October 30, 2017 at 10:21 am - Reply

    Since y’all chiefs play tonight I wanted to NOT wish you well 😄. My boys are ready for y’all next Sunday (if we have zeke). The weather will be perfect inside the DEATH STAR AKA JERRYS WORLD.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 30, 2017 at 11:26 am - Reply

      I see you are super confident in you team, so confident you are already making excuses about if you have Zeeke or not. We will work your average squad, with or without Zeeke , and you will wish you were a real Kansas City Chief instead of a silly male believe Cowboy. You gonna catch an arrow in the behind!

      • BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 30, 2017 at 12:43 pm - Reply

        good one real!! Should be a good game

    • Randy Keller October 30, 2017 at 2:32 pm - Reply

      BS MIKE… Right on Bro

      kc fools gold

      GO SOONERS

  9. Urbanity October 30, 2017 at 11:51 am - Reply

    BTW, has anyone heard of wolves roaming around Kansas? I know my animals and what I saw a week ago at night near I-70 and Wamego exit was a very large Canis Lupus about 20 feet off the road. Light grey, big body, picked it’s head up and watched me go by. Just one of those moments when you realize you have never seen something like that before. (this is not a Halloween prank).

    In case anyone cares, I also have been witness to two mountain lion sightings, then also had what I believe was a close encounter with one near a cattle/horse water tank south of Manhattan when I was a teenager. I was keeping fish in the tank and went out at night with a flash light just to look at them, and after standing there for a minute, directly behind me, I heard the most blood curling scream of a large cat. I went Usain Bolt like to the house, I mean I ran faster than any human has ever run….obviously faster than the lion as I am here to talk about it. A closer look the next day my dad and I found large cat prints near the tank, so we took the fish out of the tank and were careful for awhile when outside. But as my dad said, if he wanted you he would have had you.

  10. Brad October 30, 2017 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    Meanwhile a former meteorologist that worked with Lezak and the team is back and working in kc, anybody know this guy!!! I do.

    https://www.facebook.com/brettanthonyweather/videos/1630645520330870/

    • Richard October 30, 2017 at 2:03 pm - Reply

      That link goes nowhere. Says not available

      Brett Anthony is back here as a met ?

    • Gary October 30, 2017 at 4:27 pm - Reply

      Yes, Brett is back in KC. He has been using the LRC for years successfully in the Tulsa market. He probably will have to call it something else.

      Gary

      • Dobber October 30, 2017 at 4:36 pm - Reply

        Is the term lrc proprietary Gary?

        • Gary October 30, 2017 at 4:56 pm - Reply

          It is trademarked, but that’s all. He can use it.

          Gary

  11. Michael Garner October 30, 2017 at 2:10 pm - Reply

    KCTV 5 for Brett Anthony, wow

    • Richard October 30, 2017 at 2:25 pm - Reply

      KCTV 5 ? Head met ? Shocking. What happened to whats his name that took them to the most accurate award.
      So will Brett be using the LRC ?

      • Brad October 30, 2017 at 2:28 pm - Reply

        Must be thinking of Chris Suchan correct, IDK. Sometimes i switch to KCTV5 other times its 41 action news

  12. Nick October 30, 2017 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Wow, looks like there is going to be some friendly competition in the KC area, but I will still be streaming KSHB when I can, nuts to the NPG stuff here in St. Joe.

  13. Urbanity October 30, 2017 at 3:40 pm - Reply

    Latest forecast coming in with light snow over central KS tomorrow, if it holds off till 6-7pm would make for a magical Halloween night.

  14. Richard October 30, 2017 at 7:01 pm - Reply

    Gary on kshb at 5 pm
    “tomorrow night, a small system, a little snow maybe in Concordia, but no snow in KC.”

    Gary just now
    “I was not analyzing it correctly earlier. It MIGHT snow just a little here at trick or treat time. But no accumulation at all. And no road issues.”

    When was the last time it snowed on Halloween in KC ?

    • numb3rsguy October 31, 2017 at 7:39 am - Reply

      Officially in Kansas City we have only had measurable snow in KC twice.: 0.1″ in 1952, and 1.0″ in 1912. The last time it snowed in Kansas City on Halloween was 2002, when we got a trace of snow. It’s possible we’ve had flurries since then that weren’t recorded, but I don’t have data on that.

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