Wide Spread Freeze Warnings, The Tropics, & A Look Into The Developing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:  HARD FREEZE WARNING

  • Today: Windy and cold with northwest winds 10-25 mph and gusty. High: 43° with a mostly cloudy sky
  • Tonight:  Becoming clear and cold. A freeze is likely. Low:  28°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny and cool. High: 48°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and warmer. High:  60°

National Weather Discussion:

Wide spread freeze warnings are in effect for tonight. These stretch from southeast Minnesota down into Texas.  The dark purple area shows the hard freeze warning:

Screen Shot 2017-10-27 at 8.43.54 AM

Other than these freeze warnings the weather pattern is fairly quiet nationwide. Yesterday, we discussed the LRC and the developing weather pattern.  It continues to evolve. One of the influences on the pattern is the Arctic Oscillation.  Take a look at the latest index:

1

The AO was forecast to dip deeper into negative territory and as you can see it has not happened yet. Look at the top graph.  There is a dip that will likely happen to near or just below neutral early next week, but then it is forecast to go positive.  When the index dips deeper into negative territory it will be an influence on the pattern that would lead to an increased chance of Arctic blasts. But, if the index stays positive the influence is more in the warmer direction.  As the overall LRC sets up we will be able to know better when these indexes will be more or less favorable to push us into a colder or warmer winter pattern. We just need another three to four weeks to experience what this weather pattern is capable of doing.

two_atl_0d0

The tropics:

Look at the orange X. That X is now forecast to become a tropical system with a 60% chance of it becoming a named storm.  Let’s track this feature over the weekend as well. If it forms it may clip parts of Florida as it gets picked up in the flow.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

All my comments now go into mod. Most likely due to registration snafus.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Well I see my previous post never came out of moderation. Also when I setup new registration I never received the email to finalize or add password. Lol…Houston there still is a problem!

Melanie
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Melanie

How cold will windchills be around 8am in the morning? Hoping they don’t cancel my daughter’s soccer game.

terry
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terry

ok if you say so Lol.

Shawn
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Shawn

Terry

I know you really want a cold and snowy winter but you can’t simply wish it into existence. Face the facts. Other than a few colder bursts, this winter looks mild and dry. It is the new “normal” around these parts

Terry
Guest
Terry

I am jumping to no conclusions you are Just because he said is it gonna be A colder Winter or a mild winter in his blog today. That dose not mean it a mild winter and Gary did not say that at all. Do read his blog from i Believe it’s October the 26 th blog and What he thinks about the 1st 21 days so far and he said something about of the blog .
https://www.weather2020.com/The Changing Pattern-Three weeks Into This

Terry
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Terry

Read October 26th blog read all of it.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

I can tell Gary is really mulling over this year’s LRC, he got excited prematurely a few blogs ago and mother nature snapped him back into reality, now he has said the heck with it, he is going to wait and see and bring forth his thoughts when the answers are in. You guys, myself included, pull him to discussions where he speculates more than he wants to. Of course, he may be saying “the heck with the LRC for a week, lets go Dodgers”.

Joe
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Joe

I have a feeling we are going to get a repeat of the last two winters…but then again i tend to read between the lines when going through this blog.

Terry
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Terry

Lol

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Yo Gary….in moderation. Dang, probably due to 2 links 😂

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Both the GFS and Euro are showing light snow on Halloween evening. If this verifies this will end Gary’s blog contest of guessing date/time of first snowflakes. This is different from KSHB contest for first inch of snow as measured at the station on the Plaza. Looks like a dusting in the metro area!

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_012h&rh=2017102712&fh=114&r=us_c&dpdt=

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
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BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

Mr. Pete I hope so, my boys play for Platte County. We have a playoff game vs Smithville great football weather except the wind!!!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Are these winds going to die down this evening? I finally turned on the heat today…

stl78
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stl78

Your the man mike. Much appreciated sir!

MikeL
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MikeL

You’re welcome! Now if you want snow maps with snow on them, that will cost extra…lol

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Yeah, thanks Mike! Just bookmarked the site.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Hey folks (paging stl78), here is a link to Euro maps that include snowfall (yay!) and some other things. My understanding is these can be legitimately accessed for free because the site owner (formerly associated with WxBell) has paid the required fees to do so. Thus, there is not any infringement or property rights issues as far as I can tell. Please share if you have information or an understanding that is different than that.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Rockdoc,

I had to create a new user ID and password on 2020 to match my word pass. Then it worked.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I’ll try that! Will keep one page open with my original stuff in case there is snafu! Hope it allows me to re-sign up 😂

Anonymous
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Anonymous

What if we get an inch of snow before the deadline for entereing the snowfall contests gets here? Do they just take the winner out of those who already entered?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

PS, for all of you that are curious about my age, I answered it yesterday with a math riddle. Not really a riddle, just a matter of multiplication and subtraction. Initial guess was 34 so I indicated to double that (68) then subtract 6. This will show my age on my Birthday in November 😉

numb3rsguy
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numb3rsguy

So 68 minus the 6 means that you are only 8 years old?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

…spoken like a true numbers guy…lol

anonymous
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anonymous

behavior wise, yes

stl78
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stl78

Grrrrr..technology can be so frustating!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I have two Weather 2020 pages open, this one and a second one. What’s funny is that when I try to “re-log” in on the other open page I thought perhaps I needed to reset my password since it did not take what I entered. I entered my email address so the system could send me a link to reset it and then it said it’s not in their system The system doesn’t recognize my e-mail address and says it’s not in their system….lol….

Houston, we have a problem!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

My email address for Word Press is the same as for Weather 2020. It shows my name and e-mail address in the blocks just below where we type the comment. Something is very screwed up!

Mike
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Mike
BSMike
Member
BSMike

I can see the flakes stl78, nice trees 🌲 also.

BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)
Guest
BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS)

That is correct sir, you have to be logged in to Weather2020 with same email as word press.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Yes richard, u need to b signed in to 2020

Troy
Guest
Troy

Does the AO and NAO follow the LRC cycle or does it do its own thing??

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

OK, I have pulled up the link to Gravatar and I’ve logged in to WordPress, so how do I now link it to Weather2020?

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

I already have a picture in there since I tried it once before. But how do I connect my WordPress account to Weather 2020 so it will show the picture?

Richard
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Richard

Rockdoc
Someone said you need to be logged in to 2020 already ?

And by the way I had that feeling you were a female 😊 But you still did not fess up your age 😄
Thats ok.

Makes us feel like family on here finding out everyones age. I am the oldest kid on the block. But not the smartest.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I think I’m already logged into Weather 2020 since when I pull up this web page it always shows my name, Rockdoc, and e-mail address on the comment block. Maybe I just need to re-log in. I think I had set it up so it auto knows me.

stl78
Guest
stl78

Well, i guess this is 1 way to share photos on here. If u zoom in u can see the flakes flying in my back yard

stl78
Guest
stl78

Test

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Nice to put a picture with the persons bs 😂

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Bloggers, let’s leave the forecasting and conclusions to Gary. He obviously sees more than we do. Last morning’s blog he said his preliminary look into winter seems to be at least average snowfall. The AO forecast seems to change every day. Let’s just be patient and keep our fingers crossed for the winter

stl78
Guest
stl78
stl78
Guest
stl78

Rockdoc..any luck with the gravatar? For those that want a pic for the blog. Google gravatar. Il send a link

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

We were mostly all fooled w/ last year’s LRC. Fronts w/o moisture to tap into didn’t pan out for Winter ’16/’17…then look what happened. This particular mass of cold air bringing our first freeze has no tappable moisture…perhaps it will – as it cycles back through the next 6 or 7 times?

stl78
Guest
stl78

Light snow here in se mn this morning

Richard
Guest
Richard

Nice
Be careful driving. Light snow more accidents it seems

Clint
Guest
Clint

Latest NAO forecast does show a small trend in negative territory.
comment image

Clint
Guest
Clint

Same with the AO.
comment image

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

*or so – sometime mid to late November is when I expect we will see the 9/26 storm in again.

Richard
Guest
Richard

But isn’t the 9/26 storm the old LRC ?

terry
Guest
terry

Yes it’s in the Old LRC pattern 9/26. The New LRC didn’t start until like the 10/4 10/5 10/6.

Richard
Guest
Richard

So how can we see that storm again in Nov ?

terry
Guest
terry

You can’t

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think it may have been enough during the transition period to bleed into the new pattern as well.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And to be fully honest I think we will see above normal temperatures this winter with slightly below normal snowfall – maybe 14-16″ this winter. I’m just throwing those figures of “what if” out there for the scenario sake. Judging by the pattern up north of here with fast hitting systems riding that big ridge out west I think we should have a fair amount of clipper systems bringing us quick shots of 1-2″ snows this winter. I think there is a chance of at least one good snow this winter as the storm that impacted us the last week… Read more »

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

It’s becoming apparent that the AO/NAO are trending much too positive. I agree that it will be warmer, especially at the wrong times. Storm systems that should be snow will be merely cold rain….

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

2011-12 had 3.9″. 2016-17 had 4.7″. If we can do 5.3″ or less this winter our 2 year total will be 10″ or less. If we have a 2011-12 winter again we may not even hit 9″ in 2 years…

stl78
Guest
stl78

I still think kc will receive above normal snowfall. I will stick to my guns….24 in

terry
Guest
terry

Gary so far of what we have Seen or have experience or have seen in this new LRC pattern snow / cold so far ? I know you have mission something yesterday about the snow blog!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Think we can do less than 10″ of snow for a 2 year total? This positive AO/NAO situation reminds me a lot of 2011/12. We get less than 5 inches this winter we may do it…

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Yep…. It’s gonna be a poof type of winter I’m afraid.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Big board yesterday, that age question really took off.

Gary, I hope all is well, it seems the deeper we get into this years LRC the more disappointing the data outputs, the AO looks like it’s forecasted to flat line, the weak LaNina is a favored solution, the ridging and dryness across most of America has been prominent, and the long range forecasts continue to show very little precip south of 45 Degrees Latitude. Things just aren’t falling in our favor right now.

Any chance of predicting weather for Thanksgiving week this far out?

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Agreed….