Wide Spread Freeze Warnings, The Tropics, & A Look Into The Developing Pattern

/Wide Spread Freeze Warnings, The Tropics, & A Look Into The Developing Pattern

Wide Spread Freeze Warnings, The Tropics, & A Look Into The Developing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:  HARD FREEZE WARNING

  • Today: Windy and cold with northwest winds 10-25 mph and gusty. High: 43° with a mostly cloudy sky
  • Tonight:  Becoming clear and cold. A freeze is likely. Low:  28°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny and cool. High: 48°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and warmer. High:  60°

National Weather Discussion:

Wide spread freeze warnings are in effect for tonight. These stretch from southeast Minnesota down into Texas.  The dark purple area shows the hard freeze warning:

Screen Shot 2017-10-27 at 8.43.54 AM

Other than these freeze warnings the weather pattern is fairly quiet nationwide. Yesterday, we discussed the LRC and the developing weather pattern.  It continues to evolve. One of the influences on the pattern is the Arctic Oscillation.  Take a look at the latest index:

1

The AO was forecast to dip deeper into negative territory and as you can see it has not happened yet. Look at the top graph.  There is a dip that will likely happen to near or just below neutral early next week, but then it is forecast to go positive.  When the index dips deeper into negative territory it will be an influence on the pattern that would lead to an increased chance of Arctic blasts. But, if the index stays positive the influence is more in the warmer direction.  As the overall LRC sets up we will be able to know better when these indexes will be more or less favorable to push us into a colder or warmer winter pattern. We just need another three to four weeks to experience what this weather pattern is capable of doing.

two_atl_0d0

The tropics:

Look at the orange X. That X is now forecast to become a tropical system with a 60% chance of it becoming a named storm.  Let’s track this feature over the weekend as well. If it forms it may clip parts of Florida as it gets picked up in the flow.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

2017-10-29T09:51:28+00:00October 27th, 2017|General|64 Comments

64 Comments

  1. Urbanity October 27, 2017 at 9:17 am - Reply

    Big board yesterday, that age question really took off.

    Gary, I hope all is well, it seems the deeper we get into this years LRC the more disappointing the data outputs, the AO looks like it’s forecasted to flat line, the weak LaNina is a favored solution, the ridging and dryness across most of America has been prominent, and the long range forecasts continue to show very little precip south of 45 Degrees Latitude. Things just aren’t falling in our favor right now.

    Any chance of predicting weather for Thanksgiving week this far out?

    • Bluetooth October 27, 2017 at 6:37 pm - Reply

      Agreed….

  2. f00dl3 October 27, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Think we can do less than 10″ of snow for a 2 year total? This positive AO/NAO situation reminds me a lot of 2011/12. We get less than 5 inches this winter we may do it…

    • Bluetooth October 27, 2017 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      Yep…. It’s gonna be a poof type of winter I’m afraid.

  3. terry October 27, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Gary so far of what we have Seen or have experience or have seen in this new LRC pattern snow / cold so far ? I know you have mission something yesterday about the snow blog!

  4. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

    I still think kc will receive above normal snowfall. I will stick to my guns….24 in

  5. f00dl3 October 27, 2017 at 9:27 am - Reply

    2011-12 had 3.9″. 2016-17 had 4.7″. If we can do 5.3″ or less this winter our 2 year total will be 10″ or less. If we have a 2011-12 winter again we may not even hit 9″ in 2 years…

  6. f00dl3 October 27, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply

    And to be fully honest I think we will see above normal temperatures this winter with slightly below normal snowfall – maybe 14-16″ this winter. I’m just throwing those figures of “what if” out there for the scenario sake.

    Judging by the pattern up north of here with fast hitting systems riding that big ridge out west I think we should have a fair amount of clipper systems bringing us quick shots of 1-2″ snows this winter. I think there is a chance of at least one good snow this winter as the storm that impacted us the last week of September 26th cycles through again in mid to late January. I think when it comes through around November 15th that it may a mixed precipitation event. If we have a cycle length of 56 days.

    • Bluetooth October 27, 2017 at 6:43 pm - Reply

      It’s becoming apparent that the AO/NAO are trending much too positive. I agree that it will be warmer, especially at the wrong times. Storm systems that should be snow will be merely cold rain….

  7. f00dl3 October 27, 2017 at 9:34 am - Reply

    *or so – sometime mid to late November is when I expect we will see the 9/26 storm in again.

    • Richard October 27, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

      But isn’t the 9/26 storm the old LRC ?

      • terry October 27, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

        Yes it’s in the Old LRC pattern 9/26. The New LRC didn’t start until like the 10/4 10/5 10/6.

        • Richard October 27, 2017 at 10:38 am - Reply

          So how can we see that storm again in Nov ?

          • terry October 27, 2017 at 11:06 am - Reply

            You can’t

            • f00dl3 October 27, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

              I think it may have been enough during the transition period to bleed into the new pattern as well.

  8. Clint October 27, 2017 at 9:41 am - Reply

    Latest NAO forecast does show a small trend in negative territory.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

  9. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 9:55 am - Reply

    Light snow here in se mn this morning

    • Richard October 27, 2017 at 10:39 am - Reply

      Nice
      Be careful driving. Light snow more accidents it seems

  10. j-ox October 27, 2017 at 10:00 am - Reply

    We were mostly all fooled w/ last year’s LRC. Fronts w/o moisture to tap into didn’t pan out for Winter ’16/’17…then look what happened. This particular mass of cold air bringing our first freeze has no tappable moisture…perhaps it will – as it cycles back through the next 6 or 7 times?

  11. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    Rockdoc..any luck with the gravatar? For those that want a pic for the blog. Google gravatar. Il send a link

  12. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 10:02 am - Reply
  13. Frankie October 27, 2017 at 10:08 am - Reply

    Bloggers, let’s leave the forecasting and conclusions to Gary. He obviously sees more than we do. Last morning’s blog he said his preliminary look into winter seems to be at least average snowfall. The AO forecast seems to change every day. Let’s just be patient and keep our fingers crossed for the winter

  14. BSMike October 27, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

    Nice to put a picture with the persons bs 😂

  15. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    Test

  16. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 10:29 am - Reply

    Well, i guess this is 1 way to share photos on here. If u zoom in u can see the flakes flying in my back yard

  17. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 10:33 am - Reply

    OK, I have pulled up the link to Gravatar and I’ve logged in to WordPress, so how do I now link it to Weather2020?

    • Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 10:35 am - Reply

      I already have a picture in there since I tried it once before. But how do I connect my WordPress account to Weather 2020 so it will show the picture?

      • Richard October 27, 2017 at 10:46 am - Reply

        Rockdoc
        Someone said you need to be logged in to 2020 already ?

        And by the way I had that feeling you were a female 😊 But you still did not fess up your age 😄
        Thats ok.

        Makes us feel like family on here finding out everyones age. I am the oldest kid on the block. But not the smartest.

        • Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 11:34 am - Reply

          I think I’m already logged into Weather 2020 since when I pull up this web page it always shows my name, Rockdoc, and e-mail address on the comment block. Maybe I just need to re-log in. I think I had set it up so it auto knows me.

  18. Troy October 27, 2017 at 10:45 am - Reply

    Does the AO and NAO follow the LRC cycle or does it do its own thing??

    • Gary October 27, 2017 at 10:50 am - Reply

      Troy,

      There are tropical easterlies, Polar easterlies, and then we have this westerly belt in between. The cycling pattern is an interaction of all of the above. The way the LRC sets up can provide clues on whether the AO and NAO, and other indexes, will go into the positive or negative. We are still analyzing this pattern for this potential. To answer your question, Yes, the AO and NAO do follow the LRC, but when you go way up into the high territories of northern Alaska and Greenland, or Siberia, the flow up there is closer to the Polar easterlies and the cycle may just be a bit different up there, and these differences must be included.

      Gary

  19. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 10:48 am - Reply

    Yes richard, u need to b signed in to 2020

  20. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 27, 2017 at 10:52 am - Reply

    That is correct sir, you have to be logged in to Weather2020 with same email as word press.

  21. BSMike October 27, 2017 at 10:53 am - Reply

    I can see the flakes stl78, nice trees 🌲 also.

  22. Mike October 27, 2017 at 11:03 am - Reply
  23. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 11:44 am - Reply

    I have two Weather 2020 pages open, this one and a second one. What’s funny is that when I try to “re-log” in on the other open page I thought perhaps I needed to reset my password since it did not take what I entered. I entered my email address so the system could send me a link to reset it and then it said it’s not in their system The system doesn’t recognize my e-mail address and says it’s not in their system….lol….

    Houston, we have a problem!

    • Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

      My email address for Word Press is the same as for Weather 2020. It shows my name and e-mail address in the blocks just below where we type the comment. Something is very screwed up!

  24. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 11:46 am - Reply

    Grrrrr..technology can be so frustating!

  25. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 11:52 am - Reply

    PS, for all of you that are curious about my age, I answered it yesterday with a math riddle. Not really a riddle, just a matter of multiplication and subtraction. Initial guess was 34 so I indicated to double that (68) then subtract 6. This will show my age on my Birthday in November 😉

    • numb3rsguy October 27, 2017 at 12:36 pm - Reply

      So 68 minus the 6 means that you are only 8 years old?

      • MikeL October 27, 2017 at 12:38 pm - Reply

        …spoken like a true numbers guy…lol

      • anonymous October 27, 2017 at 1:27 pm - Reply

        behavior wise, yes

  26. Anonymous October 27, 2017 at 11:53 am - Reply

    What if we get an inch of snow before the deadline for entereing the snowfall contests gets here? Do they just take the winner out of those who already entered?

  27. BSMike October 27, 2017 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    Rockdoc,

    I had to create a new user ID and password on 2020 to match my word pass. Then it worked.

    • Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 3:05 pm - Reply

      I’ll try that! Will keep one page open with my original stuff in case there is snafu! Hope it allows me to re-sign up 😂

  28. MikeL October 27, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Hey folks (paging stl78), here is a link to Euro maps that include snowfall (yay!) and some other things. My understanding is these can be legitimately accessed for free because the site owner (formerly associated with WxBell) has paid the required fees to do so. Thus, there is not any infringement or property rights issues as far as I can tell. Please share if you have information or an understanding that is different than that.

    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

  29. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 12:52 pm - Reply

    Your the man mike. Much appreciated sir!

    • MikeL October 27, 2017 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      You’re welcome! Now if you want snow maps with snow on them, that will cost extra…lol

      • Snow Miser October 27, 2017 at 2:35 pm - Reply

        Yeah, thanks Mike! Just bookmarked the site.

  30. Mr. Pete October 27, 2017 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    Are these winds going to die down this evening? I finally turned on the heat today…

  31. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 27, 2017 at 1:14 pm - Reply

    Mr. Pete I hope so, my boys play for Platte County. We have a playoff game vs Smithville great football weather except the wind!!!

  32. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 3:20 pm - Reply

    Both the GFS and Euro are showing light snow on Halloween evening. If this verifies this will end Gary’s blog contest of guessing date/time of first snowflakes. This is different from KSHB contest for first inch of snow as measured at the station on the Plaza. Looks like a dusting in the metro area!

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_012h&rh=2017102712&fh=114&r=us_c&dpdt=

    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

  33. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    Yo Gary….in moderation. Dang, probably due to 2 links 😂

  34. Urbanity October 27, 2017 at 4:04 pm - Reply

    I can tell Gary is really mulling over this year’s LRC, he got excited prematurely a few blogs ago and mother nature snapped him back into reality, now he has said the heck with it, he is going to wait and see and bring forth his thoughts when the answers are in. You guys, myself included, pull him to discussions where he speculates more than he wants to. Of course, he may be saying “the heck with the LRC for a week, lets go Dodgers”.

    • Joe October 27, 2017 at 9:52 pm - Reply

      I have a feeling we are going to get a repeat of the last two winters…but then again i tend to read between the lines when going through this blog.

      • Terry October 28, 2017 at 9:13 am - Reply

        Lol

  35. terry October 27, 2017 at 6:25 pm - Reply

    ok if you say so Lol.

    • Shawn October 27, 2017 at 10:48 pm - Reply

      Terry

      I know you really want a cold and snowy winter but you can’t simply wish it into existence. Face the facts. Other than a few colder bursts, this winter looks mild and dry. It is the new “normal” around these parts

      • Terry October 28, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

        I am jumping to no conclusions you are Just because he said is it gonna be A colder Winter or a mild winter in his blog today. That dose not mean it a mild winter and Gary did not say that at all. Do read his blog from i Believe it’s October the 26 th blog and What he thinks about the 1st 21 days so far and he said something about of the blog .
        http://www.weather2020.com/The Changing Pattern-Three weeks Into This

      • Terry October 28, 2017 at 9:11 am - Reply

        Read October 26th blog read all of it.

  36. Melanie October 27, 2017 at 8:08 pm - Reply

    How cold will windchills be around 8am in the morning? Hoping they don’t cancel my daughter’s soccer game.

  37. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 9:25 pm - Reply

    Well I see my previous post never came out of moderation. Also when I setup new registration I never received the email to finalize or add password. Lol…Houston there still is a problem!

  38. Rockdoc October 27, 2017 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    All my comments now go into mod. Most likely due to registration snafus.

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