The Changing Pattern – Three Weeks Into This

/The Changing Pattern – Three Weeks Into This

The Changing Pattern – Three Weeks Into This

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and breezy with temperatures warming to near 70°
  • Tonight:  Turning much colder, windy, with a few periods of clouds.  Low:  34°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny with a few clouds at times. Windy and colder. Northwest winds 20-35 mph.  High:  44°
  • Saturday:  Freeze Warning. Low:  29°

Weather Discussion:

Let me begin by explaining how fascinating this cycling weather pattern is as we discuss these first three weeks of this years LRC.  There are many of you that have followed our discussions in the blogs and on television for years, some of you for 15 years. And, there are others that are brand new to this concept. There are three main aspects to the LRC.

The LRC:

  • A unique weather pattern sets up every year between around October 1st and November 30th.  The first day of the new pattern is around the end of the first week of October or around October 7th give or take a few days. We have identified a possible caused of this beginning to the cycle as the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, and then it is twilight for almost two weeks and this twilight ends around October 5th to 7th each year. This is about the same time that the LRC begins.
  • Long-term long wave troughs and ridges set up and become established for the entire next year from October through September. These features are where storm systems reach their peak strength and weakest strength most often
  • The pattern is cycling and regularly.  This cycle becomes established in October and November, but it can not be identified and verified until we go deeper into the second cycle of the pattern, and this usually happens in December and our confidence is achieved by early January at the latest.

We have identified a quantifiable way of finding the cycle a bit earlier and this is part of our research paper this is in the review process.  The weather pattern is now likely set for the year but we have only seen these first three weeks of this weather pattern.

1The weather pattern is definitely unique. This means it has never happened before, which is one of the main aspects of the LRC.  One of the big features to monitor is over Alaska and over Greenland. This map on the left shows the height anomalies at 500 mb, around 18,000 feet up.  Notice the above average heights from Alaska to the North Pole with the below average heights over Canada extending south into the Great Lakes.  This is valid around one week from now.  Some blocking at high latitudes is trying to develop.  This will lead to some very cold air forming over northern Canada during this next ten day to two week stretch.

What happens next is very important and we will see a lot of what this pattern will mean for this up coming winter season soon.  But, we have to experience it first. I can’t stress this more. These other forecasts that have come out way too early, in my opinion, did not include the biggest piece of the weather puzzle.  This puzzle is now coming together and this map on the left is important for many reasons, and i am just now beginning to “see” the answer to this winters forecast problem. There are many questions and answers that will continue to come up and I will share them with you in this Action Weather blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Go to Weather2020.com and ask us any questions you would like. This subject will be discussed a lot more as we get closer to issuing our winter forecast in just four weeks.

A fantasy weather model at 372 hours? Well, likely yes, but this “look” has now happened many times since the pattern began around that first week of October.  There is a storm over Kansas and Missouri on this November 10th, forecast, and the kicker upstream as well is something we have seen multiple times. This was discussed in the video blog earlier in the week, so go back and take a look.

2

Again, I stress patience. If I was going to make a preliminary look into winter based on these first 21 days I would lean to KC having at least average snowfall this season. We have had a total of 24 inches in three years or 1000 days of weather patterns. 24 inches in 1,000 days. So, 18 inches of snow or more would certainly seem like a lot to any of us who have just experienced these past three winters. Another stat I will be throwing out there is the fact that there have been 31 days with measurable snowfall the past three winter seasons. 31 dates and only 24″ of snow. I will let you do the math on that one.

1

You can enter the snowflake contest now.  I will have my forecast as we get close to the deadline, unless a good chance starts realistically showing up. Have a great day!

Gary

2017-10-27T08:57:52+00:00 October 26th, 2017|General|106 Comments

106 Comments

  1. Bill October 26, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

    I am perfectly content with another mild, snowless winter. Is it spring yet?

    • anonymous October 26, 2017 at 10:29 am - Reply

      Lol

  2. Jason October 26, 2017 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Bring on the snow and cold. PLEASE! Mild winters are bed all around. Weeds, insects, ticks, etc…

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 26, 2017 at 11:50 am - Reply

      It almost isn’t possible to kill insects with cold unless you get -25F or something absolutely extreme, they just go dormant and reanimate when it warms up no matter how cold it gets there isn’t an appreciable reduction in ticks. No amount of cold will ever reduce weeds either, you can even burn most seeds to some degree and they will still germinate. Just old wives tales…….

      • Jason October 26, 2017 at 1:09 pm - Reply

        Well then be cold to keep the armadillo’s from continuing to move further North. Ha! Be cold to keep the moles from digging in my yard 365 days a year. I’m grasping here

        • REAL HUMEDUDE October 26, 2017 at 2:03 pm - Reply

          I’m with you there man, knock them Armadillos back,PLEASE!!!
          They are burrowing up my fields terribly, I hate to shoot animals indiscriminately but they are so destructive I have no choice

  3. Richard October 26, 2017 at 9:02 am - Reply

    Gary

    Please put a link in here or at top in the 2020 banner for contests !
    Several of us asked yesterday where to go.
    Why mention a contest in your blog if you don’t throw out a link.
    When you say “snowflake contest” in your last sentence here, or anywhere in the blog, why can’t that word be the link ?? I see embedded links in words often used on the internet.

  4. j-ox October 26, 2017 at 9:05 am - Reply

    NOT missing them, but…where are the oak leaf mites?

    • NoBeachHere October 26, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

      Biting the mess out of me!

      • j-ox October 26, 2017 at 4:32 pm - Reply

        We’ve had a few, but nothing like the previous couple years OR what was forecasted.

  5. numb3rsguy October 26, 2017 at 9:15 am - Reply

    I’m sensing tension between Bill and Jason.

    • Richard October 26, 2017 at 9:39 am - Reply

      Who are they

      • Richard October 26, 2017 at 9:40 am - Reply

        Never mind

    • Jason October 26, 2017 at 1:11 pm - Reply

      My one post every couple weeks isn’t enough for anyone to bother me on here. I mostly just read. I enjoy when winter actually feels like winter. I’ll hope for cold, and Bill can hope for another warm winter

  6. Snow Miser October 26, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

    The last several runs of the GFS have been really boring.

  7. Urbanity October 26, 2017 at 9:26 am - Reply

    One thing I’ll never understand is how the air temp can drop 50 degrees in an 18 hour period and no weather happens, besides wind. What was all the talk in high school about when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass precipitation forms. I actually here weatherman, and weatherwomen, and weathertrans, and weatheranimals, say the same thing even today.

    • anonymous October 26, 2017 at 9:35 am - Reply

      hear*
      weatherpeople*

  8. numb3rsguy October 26, 2017 at 9:33 am - Reply

    I count 32 days on measurable snowfall and 25″ of snow in the last three winters:

    2016-2017: 5 days (our lowest number ever), with 4.9″ (4th lowest total)
    2015-2016: 9 days, with 5.9″ (6th lowest total)
    2014-2015: 18 days, with 14.2″

    For comparison, 2009-2010 was tied for 6th most, at 25 days with measurable snowfall, and 44.3″ of snow (4th highest total)!

  9. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 9:55 am - Reply

    Let’s do an age check on here, I’m just curious! 47 for me

    • Urbanity October 26, 2017 at 10:03 am - Reply

      Most people will lie about their age, even on a message board. But I am 103, my wife is 27.

      • MikeL October 26, 2017 at 11:27 am - Reply

        …and you’ve been married 20 years. 🙂

        • Urbanity October 26, 2017 at 1:21 pm - Reply

          MikeL, back in the day people were okay with it…..well maybe not 7. No, even though I can be childish and imbecile like on blog posts (because that’s the only place I can be), I was born around the time of Bryan Adams best days of his life, you know when Jimmy quit the band and Joey got married. (I can’t just tell BSMike my age, got let him figure it out). I am more mature (age wise) than BSMike thought, Rockdoc was A LOT closer. In fact I would tend to agree with Rockdoc on most of his guesses, except Richard is younger than 72. Ain’t no 72 y/o’s blogging…..except Trump.lol

          For Hume, since I’m a lot older you should start following my lead more on political issues, you’re just a pup who doesn’t know what I know. As the late great Sammy Davis Jr said, “A man who knows, and knows he knows, is a leader, follow him.” Just remember that Hume.

    • Jason October 26, 2017 at 1:12 pm - Reply

      40

  10. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    39 here and been here for bout 10 yrs or so

  11. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    my guess is as follows

    snow miser- 32
    Richard -75
    Urbanity -22
    Rocdoc- 34
    Heat-21
    Bill in Lawrence-58

    • Richard October 26, 2017 at 11:03 am - Reply

      Guess again

    • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 11:28 am - Reply

      Wow, that’s the nicest compliment I’ve received in a long time. Thanks BSMike 🙂 You can almost double that and then subtract 6 years….I try to stay young at heart…..even though I’m an “old hippie”….lol…. Here’s my list of guesses….
      snow miser- 36
      Richard -72
      Urbanity -42
      Rocdoc- ??
      Heat-38
      Bill in Lawrence-48
      stl78 45
      BSMike 48

      • Richard October 26, 2017 at 11:55 am - Reply

        Rockdoc
        Close, but wrong

        But from what you first said, I would guess you are a female ?
        Most men would not say “that’s the nicest compliment” 😉

        • Richard October 26, 2017 at 12:01 pm - Reply

          how about No name (anonymous)

          I say 19-23

          and terry ? 40-ish

          • Anonymous October 26, 2017 at 3:45 pm - Reply

            Richard = 69

            • Richard October 26, 2017 at 7:06 pm - Reply

              Bingo

              • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 7:50 pm

                Yikes Richard, we’ve been outed. You’re 69 and I’m a female 😂😂😂

  12. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 10:02 am - Reply

    On the wx blog that is

  13. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 10:03 am - Reply

    ORIGINAL BLOGGER……I’ve been a follower since it’s inception , I don’t even know how long it’s been

    • Gary October 26, 2017 at 10:22 am - Reply

      Wow, 15 years of blogging. And, here we are still going on, evolving. Thank you so much for participating and hopefully enjoying this experience all of these years.

      Gary

      • Craig October 26, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

        I actually attended the first “blogger meeting” that was held at KSHB…must have been at least 10 years ago.

  14. Clint October 26, 2017 at 10:11 am - Reply

    39 and ready for a good winter.

  15. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 10:15 am - Reply

    see I guessed right urbanity !!! lol

  16. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

    Thanks Gary, I have really enjoyed the blog over the years. Originally I was Platte City Mike back in the day.

  17. Kathy October 26, 2017 at 10:37 am - Reply

    Does anyone remember what year we had multiple polar vortices hit the Midwest? I remember I had never heard of that term before and they became a media sensation in that everyone knew about them by the end of the winter. Although I am not as well-versed in the weather as you guys are, I can’t help but wonder if we won’t hear that term thrown around again this year as this cold air comes knocking at our door early in the LRC.

    • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 11:31 am - Reply

      Was it the winter of 2009-2010 when we had all of that snowfall? Winter of 2010/2011 was relatively mild with little snow. 2011/2012 could have also had several of the polar vortices since we had more snow and cold that year.

      • blue flash October 26, 2017 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        The snowiest winters at my house since 1989 (when I started keeping records) were 09-10 36.5″, 12-13 35.0″, 10-11 34.0″, 92-93 33.5″, and 96-97 30.0″. 11-12 was actually a very dry winter, only 3.25″.

        • blue flash October 26, 2017 at 4:10 pm - Reply

          I shouldn’t say 11-12 was very dry, we actually had 15″ of rain November – March. But only 3.25″ of snow. Had a heavy snow on March 2, but it all melted on contact. In my book, that’s not measurable snow.

  18. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 10:52 am - Reply

    I remember platte city mike.

  19. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 10:53 am - Reply

    Ive never changed my handle

  20. MikeL October 26, 2017 at 11:30 am - Reply

    Let’s put it this way…..my age would be a record annual snowfall for KC.

    • MikeL October 26, 2017 at 11:39 am - Reply

      oops….scratch that. The highest was way more than I thought. I’m not that old…lol.

  21. Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 11:41 am - Reply

    Well at least I don’t even approach the amount of snowfall in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in terms of age….some places receive over 300 inches of snow in the Keweenaw Peninsula (rabbits ear)! The homes typically have doors on the secondary story so you can get in and out of your house! Take a look at the next link about lake effect snow, and almost all the way down look at “the famous snow-mometer in Keweenaw County, Michigan” Now that’s some record breaking snow!

    https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/great-lakes-snowbelts-lake-effect-snow-records

  22. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 11:46 am - Reply

    lets not forget the mike out of liberty with all the rain gauges…. 45-50 is my guess

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 26, 2017 at 11:54 am - Reply

      Yo boy Humedude has 35 years of weather watching under his belt, yes I was watching weather as a newborn back in 1982.

  23. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 11:56 am - Reply

    Yeah i think mower is in his 40s

  24. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 11:59 am - Reply

    I have a pic up so u can guess a little easier. Im thinkin of purchasing Euro, any suggestions of whom to use or an idea of cost? Thx

    • Jason October 26, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      Still not sure how you got a pic on here

      • stl78 October 26, 2017 at 1:42 pm - Reply

        Jason google gravatar

    • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 1:14 pm - Reply

      I’ve heard Weather Bell is good, and there is another site that someone here on the blog has mentioned that is also good.

      • stl78 October 26, 2017 at 1:34 pm - Reply

        Thx roc, any idea how much?

        • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 7:54 pm - Reply

          I think its around $150 or so. There may be different levels of payment depending on what you want access to. It’s been awhile. I can’t remember who reported how much it cost. It was about 3-4 years ago.

  25. Bill in Lawrence October 26, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy pre-frontal Thursday mid day to you sir!! Looks like the front has just moved through Topeka and Emporia so my winds should change to the NW here in the next hour or so.

    Great guesses by everyone!! 🙂 I’m actually the big 50 and am a true north lander as I grew up by KCI but went to school in Lawrence and then moved here around 2003. Been on the Blog ever since then but it was the snow bust of 2004 that really hooked me into the blog. That was an epic miss. Lawrence was looking at 16-18 inches of snow per the models just 12 hours before the event and the day began at a cold minus 5. By 5:00 that night it was 32 and we had sleet that turned to rain. Of course in true Kansas fashion, 3 days later we were supposed to have flurries and we got 6 inches here in Lawrence!! Been hooked on the blog ever since and have worn many clown suits LOL

    Have a great day everyone.

    Bill In Washington Creek Vally in Lawrence

  26. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 12:14 pm - Reply

    Stl78 aka stone cold !!! I’d say 39

  27. Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    The NWS will begin issuing snow squall warnings for certain areas of the country this winter. There will be 7 offices that will issue these warnings. KC is not one of them. The closest is in Cheyenne, WY which makes sense since this part of the state and I-80 are notorious for these mini storms.

    https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-squall-warning-national-weather-service-winter-2018

  28. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 12:15 pm - Reply

    Stl78 I’d say 39

  29. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 12:18 pm - Reply

    Why is my comments suddenly in mod 🙄

  30. Snow Miser October 26, 2017 at 12:22 pm - Reply

    53

  31. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 12:28 pm - Reply

    😡

  32. Shoedog October 26, 2017 at 12:51 pm - Reply

    Crazy year, going with the first inch of snow before we get through the initial LRC Pattern, guestimating 51 day cycle that started 10/4 so going November 22 5:07 am first inch of snow this year. I want to get Terry excited

  33. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

    I’m pumped for this cold front coming, I will be in the tree bow in hand Sunday morning. High pressure is perfect for the big bucks to get up and move. 🦌🦌

  34. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    I’ve been put in timeout!!! Moderation

  35. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    Stl78 aka stone cold !!! I’d say 39

  36. BSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 26, 2017 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    I’m pumped for this cold front coming, I will be in the tree bow in hand Sunday morning. High pressure is perfect for the big bucks to get up and move. 🦌🦌

    • joe October 26, 2017 at 3:54 pm - Reply

      BS Mike,

      I will be doing the same, agreed, they will start moving this weekend

  37. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 2:54 pm - Reply

    Lol bs…i get thst alot. The winds r brutal here in ne neb. Getting ready to head back to mn where they r callin for a bit of snow

  38. BSMike(Dallas Cowboys) October 26, 2017 at 2:58 pm - Reply

    Tried to add my avatar but not working🤔

  39. Urbanity October 26, 2017 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    North wind rolled into my area west of Salina around 9 am, has not been noticeably colder. Some high clouds with it, tremendous wind w/gusts to 45 mph+, steady temps around 63 degrees. It does look like there is a second front lying across central Nebraska which will probably be the one carrying the cold air.

    This is definitely a sign that the season is changing. Last spring we had a strange 3 consecutive days of winds close to 50 mph at times, in my lifetime I could not remember such wind, well it wasn’t but a week or two afterwards the rain started falling and didn’t let up for two months or more. To me it felt like a new LRC had developed, the wind speed and consistency was very unusual, a true sensation that Spring was being ushered in.

  40. MikeL October 26, 2017 at 3:04 pm - Reply

    Actually, I am now the big 60. Grew up in KCK and have been in Topeka since 1980. Most of my family still in KC even my son who lives there now.

    Fortunately, I am still in great physical shape and very active………as all 60 yr old guys would tell you… 😉

    • blue flash October 26, 2017 at 3:44 pm - Reply

      I just turned 60 last week. I have two teenage daughters so I have to be very active and in good shape!

    • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 3:46 pm - Reply

      Yep, us spring chickens do pretty well these days. I may not last as long out on the dance floor, but I can still rock-n-roll 😉

  41. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 3:14 pm - Reply

    Think I figured the avatar out!!

  42. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 3:18 pm - Reply

    Stl78 I figured it out. Thanks for the info!!Safe travels my friend back to MN.

  43. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 3:25 pm - Reply

    Back in moderation timeout!! 🙄

  44. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 3:33 pm - Reply

    North wind here in Downtown KC

  45. j-ox October 26, 2017 at 4:23 pm - Reply

    Gary & I were born the same year!

  46. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 5:28 pm - Reply

    Thx bs! Temp down to 38 with talk of expanding the wwa thats just to the west of home. Sounds like a couple inches of wet sloppy snow

  47. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 5:39 pm - Reply

    J-ox that means about 54

  48. terry October 26, 2017 at 6:42 pm - Reply

    I’m 47

    • Richard October 26, 2017 at 7:05 pm - Reply

      Yep 👍
      I was thinking 40-ish for you terry

  49. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 7:01 pm - Reply

    I wonder where the old terry is?

    • Richard October 26, 2017 at 7:05 pm - Reply

      Old terry ??

      • terry October 26, 2017 at 7:41 pm - Reply

        Yes same old terry

  50. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 7:26 pm - Reply

    Yes the Terry that got overly excited about the s word

  51. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 7:27 pm - Reply

    He always had a ton of punctuation errors and people gave him a hard time about his spelling. He tried real hard but had some challenges I hope he gets a good winter

    • Rockdoc October 26, 2017 at 7:59 pm - Reply

      Can anyone give step-by-step directions for the avitar? I’ve tried in the past and just gave up. Sometimes some of us rock-n-roll dinosaurs are tech challenged and need assist. No Grandkids to help out, just fat cats 😂😂😂

  52. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 8:18 pm - Reply

    First rock, did u go to gravatar?

    • MikeL October 26, 2017 at 8:24 pm - Reply

      Hey stl78, I got a link that has free euro snowfall maps that I’ll post tomorrow. I’m mobile right now and don’t have it handy. Got it off another forum just yesterday.

      • stl78 October 26, 2017 at 8:54 pm - Reply

        Really. Thats awesome and greatly appreciated mike

  53. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 8:21 pm - Reply

    Once u go there its pretty simple if i remember correctly

  54. Mr. Pete October 26, 2017 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    I guess no one cares about my age? Agree with the earlier post about less oak itch mites this year. The winds are now howling out of the north.

  55. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 8:23 pm - Reply
  56. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 8:25 pm - Reply

    I care mr pete….ummmmm…50

  57. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 9:35 pm - Reply

    Pete how bout 68😀

  58. BSMike October 26, 2017 at 9:37 pm - Reply

    Rockdoc

    You have to be sign into the weather2020 for it to work. But first you have to go to what stone cold said and go to settings. I did it today.

  59. stl78 October 26, 2017 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    Thx bs. Its been awhile since I’ve done it

  60. Mr. Pete October 26, 2017 at 10:22 pm - Reply

    Y’all are funny. I’m 43.

  61. BSMike October 27, 2017 at 6:21 am - Reply

    Good morning and happy WINTER!! Just got to work and logged into NWS and it says light snow and 38. Lol I didn’t see any snow driving into downtown.

  62. stl78 October 27, 2017 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Light snow here in mn this morning

  63. Fred Nolan October 27, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Sheesh. Enough questions on the Snowflake contest questionnaire? I realize all of my info is being given to Joslins, Im not sure you need to know if im married.
    BTW, why is there a redirect when viewing the KSHB site on a mobile device?

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