4:34 PM Update: Active Saturday Weather

/4:34 PM Update: Active Saturday Weather

4:34 PM Update: Active Saturday Weather

4:34 PM Update:

Screen Shot 2017-10-14 at 4.30.24 PM

This is really fascinating. The thunderstorms have been north of a weakening warm front that is just about dissipated, and southeast of the advancing cold front. When the cold front catches up and passes through the thunderstorms, then they will likely  intensify. The main risks are some hail and damaging winds.  These will be out of the KC viewing area by 11 PM.  Let’s see how this evolves, but no supercells formed as of 4:34 PM.

Previous entry below:

Good Saturday bloggers,

You can have a second season of severe weather between the middle of September and the middle of October.  Well, today is one of those days as we have a warm and humid air mass in the area as a strong cold front and system move across the Plains this evening.  So, let’s go through this weekend.

Here is the severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center as of 8 AM.  This may change later based on how the day evolves.  This means how much cloud cover and rain will occur during the day as this will be key in to determining on how unstable the air mass becomes ahead of the cold front.  If there is more rain and clouds, then the severe threat drops.  If there is more sun, then we could have a severe weather problem this evening.

1

SATURDAY 2 PM: Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lots of clouds.  There may be more showers and thunderstorms with the clouds than this model shows.  These temperatures are just barely warm enough to support severe weather.

2

SATURDAY EVENING: The cold front will be pushing across the area with rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front.  How severe will these thunderstorms become?  Again, it depends on how warm it gets this afternoon and that depends on how much sunshine breaks out.  Rainfall amounts will range from around .25″ to 1.25″ whether we see severe weather or not.

3

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: The rain and thunderstorms will be moving quickly and in KC it will be dry, windy and much cooler with temperatures dropping towards the 40s.  The thunderstorms will be along I-44 and moving away very fast..

4

SUNDAY MORNING: It will be clearing, windy and cold with wind chills in the 30s as lows drop to the low 40s.

5

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and much cooler with highs 55° to 60°.  The wind will be less from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  So, if you are headed to the Chiefs game, bring a jacket, as by the second half temperatures will be dropping to around 50°. The Sporting KC game begins at 6:30 PM.  So, it will be dry with a light breeze, but temperatures will be in the 40s, dress appropriately.

6

Here is the Kansas City weather time line for today.  It will be mainly dry in KC through 11 am-Noon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon.  The main threat for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms occurs 5 PM to 10 PM.  The extent of the severe weather will be determined on how warm it gets this afternoon and that will be determined by the extent of the cloud cover and rain.  We lean with the more clouds and rain solution, but we have to watch this closely.

7

After today it looks dry for 5-7 days with temperatures back to the 70s by Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky.

Jeff Penner

2018-01-07T20:47:11+00:00 October 14th, 2017|General|30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. Jason October 14, 2017 at 9:56 am - Reply

    My gut says this will not amount to much for us, as usual, the points further east will get the real thing

    • Anonymous October 14, 2017 at 10:06 am - Reply

      its a good thing your gut feeling isn’t relevant as to what will actually happen.

      • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:53 pm - Reply

        Oh Terry, is that you again–you know it’s not going to snow–don’t you???

    • terry October 14, 2017 at 1:54 pm - Reply

      lol funny

    • Jason October 14, 2017 at 2:53 pm - Reply

      Yeah well watch it fall apart on the western side of the city then redevelop to the east into a massive MCS…fairly predicable, especially since the CIA/Military has been doing weather modification experiments in this area for quite some time.

      • Kai October 14, 2017 at 3:21 pm - Reply

        No joke there! Wish more people would wake up to this.

      • Richard October 14, 2017 at 3:23 pm - Reply

        You are right about the weather modifications !

      • Nate October 14, 2017 at 4:52 pm - Reply

        They don’t usually work on weekends so this one might come on through

      • terry October 14, 2017 at 8:13 pm - Reply

        It didn’t fall apart

        • Bluetooth January 7, 2018 at 6:53 pm - Reply

          HAARP

      • Anonymous October 14, 2017 at 10:55 pm - Reply

        omg…please leave the crazy conspiracy crap outta here.

  2. Snow Miser October 14, 2017 at 10:19 am - Reply

    I am looking forward to the cooler weather!

  3. stl78 October 14, 2017 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    Been a soggy cool day in mn. 2 wknds in a row we’ve been rained out. Currently sitting at 48 degrees and pretty windy

    • Richard October 14, 2017 at 3:26 pm - Reply

      Lucky

      Somewhat on the miserable side here today

      Trees/colors stopped dead in their tracks from turning.

  4. Rickmckc October 14, 2017 at 4:43 pm - Reply

    Loud thunder, some lightning and a few raindrops under a very dark sky near I-29 & 64th.

    • Rickmckc October 14, 2017 at 4:56 pm - Reply

      Very windy and heavy rain now.

      • Rickmckc October 14, 2017 at 5:05 pm - Reply

        Street lights are on, very heavy rain. Wind has abated.

  5. Fred Nolan October 14, 2017 at 4:54 pm - Reply

    These clouds are fascinating to watch.

  6. Michael Garner October 14, 2017 at 5:10 pm - Reply

    Got pounded on 435 near legends area. That was some intense rain and wind

  7. Fred Nolan October 14, 2017 at 5:11 pm - Reply

    Tornado watch.

    • Richard October 15, 2017 at 8:37 am - Reply

      Just great 😩
      Supposed to go on winery tour with friends in Miami County on the 28th

    • joe October 14, 2017 at 5:58 pm - Reply

      although we all know the models 14 days out are fairly worthless, the interesting part of this is it has been a steady trend over the last 4-5 days of at least a possibility of frozen precip and you know that Gary has always said, watch the trends?

  8. KS Jones October 14, 2017 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    Got rain on October 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 & this morning (14th) for a total of 3.78″.
    That’s 1.28″ above our average rainfall for the whole month of October.

    • Gary October 14, 2017 at 8:44 pm - Reply

      The amount that counts is what falls from around the 5th and later. How much was that? Before the 5th was highly likely not related to this years pattern.

      Gary

      • Anonymous October 14, 2017 at 9:30 pm - Reply

        Have gotten 2.24″ from late in the evening of the 6th to 10 AM this morning (25 miles north of Manhattan)

      • KS Jones October 14, 2017 at 9:31 pm - Reply

        Have gotten 2.24″ from late in the evening of the 6th to 10 AM this morning (25 miles north of Manhattan)

  9. Kurt October 14, 2017 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    Still managing to get missed by the heavier squall lines all day, but a nice soaking of .67. Still struggles to produce in the drier areas, although looks like Andrew county got done good rain.

  10. j-ox October 14, 2017 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    Since early morning today: 1.5″ in NW Lawrence.

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