4:34 PM Update:

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This is really fascinating. The thunderstorms have been north of a weakening warm front that is just about dissipated, and southeast of the advancing cold front. When the cold front catches up and passes through the thunderstorms, then they will likely  intensify. The main risks are some hail and damaging winds.  These will be out of the KC viewing area by 11 PM.  Let’s see how this evolves, but no supercells formed as of 4:34 PM.

Previous entry below:

Good Saturday bloggers,

You can have a second season of severe weather between the middle of September and the middle of October.  Well, today is one of those days as we have a warm and humid air mass in the area as a strong cold front and system move across the Plains this evening.  So, let’s go through this weekend.

Here is the severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center as of 8 AM.  This may change later based on how the day evolves.  This means how much cloud cover and rain will occur during the day as this will be key in to determining on how unstable the air mass becomes ahead of the cold front.  If there is more rain and clouds, then the severe threat drops.  If there is more sun, then we could have a severe weather problem this evening.

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SATURDAY 2 PM: Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lots of clouds.  There may be more showers and thunderstorms with the clouds than this model shows.  These temperatures are just barely warm enough to support severe weather.

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SATURDAY EVENING: The cold front will be pushing across the area with rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front.  How severe will these thunderstorms become?  Again, it depends on how warm it gets this afternoon and that depends on how much sunshine breaks out.  Rainfall amounts will range from around .25″ to 1.25″ whether we see severe weather or not.

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MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: The rain and thunderstorms will be moving quickly and in KC it will be dry, windy and much cooler with temperatures dropping towards the 40s.  The thunderstorms will be along I-44 and moving away very fast..

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be clearing, windy and cold with wind chills in the 30s as lows drop to the low 40s.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and much cooler with highs 55° to 60°.  The wind will be less from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  So, if you are headed to the Chiefs game, bring a jacket, as by the second half temperatures will be dropping to around 50°. The Sporting KC game begins at 6:30 PM.  So, it will be dry with a light breeze, but temperatures will be in the 40s, dress appropriately.

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Here is the Kansas City weather time line for today.  It will be mainly dry in KC through 11 am-Noon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon.  The main threat for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms occurs 5 PM to 10 PM.  The extent of the severe weather will be determined on how warm it gets this afternoon and that will be determined by the extent of the cloud cover and rain.  We lean with the more clouds and rain solution, but we have to watch this closely.

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After today it looks dry for 5-7 days with temperatures back to the 70s by Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky.

Jeff Penner