The 2017-2018 Cycling Weather Pattern Is Beginning To Form

/The 2017-2018 Cycling Weather Pattern Is Beginning To Form

The 2017-2018 Cycling Weather Pattern Is Beginning To Form

Good morning bloggers,

IMG_1296I am still at Hilton Head Island here in South Carolina. We rented bikes and on our way to lunch yesterday we rode by this baby alligator. It was really only three feet long and maybe the mommy alligator was near by, so we were very careful.  This large lizard, can we call it a lizard because I saw some of them on this trip too, was just across the creek on the other side.  The weather here on the east coast of the United States has been influenced by a rather strong and large high pressure area and there has been an onshore easterly breeze at around 20 mph the entire time I have been here.  I would like to thank Jeff Penner for writing the blogs the past few days and I think this is the longest I have taken off from writing the blog in 15 years, which only lasted around four or five days. I hope everyone is doing well and are you ready for a new weather pattern. Are you ready for a weather pattern that has never happened in the history of earth? Yes, a unique pattern is now setting up.  What ignites this to happen every year around the first week of October? Well, we believe we may know what starts it, but of course this is just an idea we are looking into. The sun sets on the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox around September 22nd each year. Then it is twilight, in other words it is not dark at the North Pole until around October 5th to 8th, and this is when we have shown and shared with you over these past 15 years in the blog when we believe the pattern begins. It is October 4th, so we are likely in the last few hours of the old pattern and nearly at the beginning of the new pattern which we can clearly see on the models the past few days.

This morning there is a cold front moving through the Kansas City region. Let’s take a look:


The temperatures dipped to 28 degrees up in northwest Nebraska.  This cooler air mass is shifting south, but this front will be stalling. Take a look at what happens next:


That big surface high pressure area off of the east coast is still having a major influence with easterly flow across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The flow then returns to the south over the western plains and the front near the Oklahoma/Kansas border will be stalling.  After the front stalls it will then begin moving north again, shifting into northern Kansas and Nebraska trailing back into Oklahoma. This will likely lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms north and west of Kansas City Friday evening and then the front will move through by Saturday morning. And, then what happens next will be interesting to track by Monday as a much stronger front is forecast to form. I can’s stress this more, as will be into the new pattern by next week as we always are according to the LRC, now the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis as we submit our work for peer review.  Look how strong this front looks, and it is very different than the types of fronts we experienced in last years pattern.


That is one strong cold front blasting southeast.  On last nights 00z GFS model there was even snow forecast in KC, but hang on everyone, it is no longer on the later overnight run. Remember the October Surprise on October 22, 1996? So, we are moving into the time of the year where it wouldn’t completely be out of the question, but I just don’t see it yet.

The Changing Pattern:




These two maps above show the changing pattern in the next two weeks. Both maps have troughs inland over the west. As much as I do “like” to see this, it is just on the models. I would prefer to see it actually happen before we jump to conclusions on what it could mean for this up coming snow season in KC.  We have been snow “deprived” over the past three straight winters, so I am hopeful for a better pattern. But, being hopeful means nothing. Let’s see how it sets up.  When I first found the cycling pattern in the 1980s I noticed the most critical three weeks was October 15-November 5, but it is still the entire first cycle of the pattern which must be analyzed which can last from the first week of October into early December or possibly even longer. So, I recommend patience.

Have  a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience, this Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Let us know if you have any questions. Go to and click on the blog to join in the conversation.


2017-10-05T16:07:58+00:00October 4th, 2017|General|15 Comments


  1. blue flash October 4, 2017 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    60 days ago on August 5 we had 4.4″ of rain, so maybe we are still getting some impact from the old cycle?

    • Urbanity October 4, 2017 at 1:25 pm - Reply

      You’ll know the new pattern has taken shape when it gets dry for 45 days straight. I would think this current weather is from the old pattern as this system began establishing well before the LRC time period.

      Question for Gary (but I doubt if he is paying attention), if the dominating SE blocking high affecting weather where Gary is at stays put for a few weeks, wouldn’t this be a perfect winter setup for the midwest since there would be blocking in place?

      • REAL HUMEDUDE October 4, 2017 at 1:39 pm - Reply

        Gary usually wants blocking at upper latitudes from what I might partially understand. Not sure why it is that way, I ‘m worthless in that dept. lol

        • Gary October 4, 2017 at 6:03 pm - Reply

          If there is blocking, Humedude, then the jet stream is intensified and is forced south. It will still affect the areas that are most favorable for the blocking to impact each location. I will try to explain when we do have blocking this winter. So, it doesn’t mean it will be good. It increases the chance of more exciting weather for us weather enthusiasts.


      • Gary October 4, 2017 at 5:42 pm - Reply

        It may very well be. As I suggested in the blog, be patient. We are likely moving into day one of this years cycling pattern in the next two to four days.


  2. Craig October 4, 2017 at 12:31 pm - Reply
    • Gary October 4, 2017 at 5:46 pm - Reply

      Definitely cool, but that person could have been hit by an EF-0 to EF-1 tornado. It appears that it stayed just above the surface, a single vortex funnel.


  3. Michael Casteel October 4, 2017 at 12:53 pm - Reply

    Had a nice .74″ this morning! Good soaking rain! I suppose the next few days will be cloudy and wet. Have a good day bloggers!

  4. George October 4, 2017 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    Coming down pretty good here in Grandview. Will be curious to see what I got at my house in OP 87th & Antioch

  5. KS Jones October 4, 2017 at 2:11 pm - Reply

    Got 0.12″ of drizzle yesterday afternoon and an additional 0.95″ of drizzle/rain overnight.

  6. MMike October 4, 2017 at 3:44 pm - Reply

    AHHHHH….the new pattern! Is it a really a new pattern? Think about it….here in KC we have had snow less/warm/dry winter the past 3 for the most part..right??

    Then, wet spring and summer’s..two cooler then averages summers and one warmer then average summer.(even after many were certain of drought and heat) Seems like the same pattern for 3 years now…above average moisture. I think they should move KC’s annual rainfall average to 45 inches or more…we get that every year now….

    Nature tells me and my good ole friends on the farm that winter this year will return. Above average snow and average temps.

    21-31 inches of snow and the coldest temp(@warm Al Gore) -15 First snow before Thanksgiving. First frost…later next week.
    Oh, Chiefs are going to go to the SB this year on the back of MVP Alex Smith.

    Let the fun begin.

  7. Richard October 4, 2017 at 3:51 pm - Reply

    Are we looking at a chance for snow next week ? Hope not. Trees are still full of leaves !
    The October surprise was late Oct. in 96 I think. No power for 3 days at our place.

    And on this date 1998 was a deadly KC flood event. My son was at Arrowhead for the game when the steps became waterfalls ! He had one heck of a time driving home, but safe.

  8. George October 5, 2017 at 2:35 pm - Reply

    Dumped 3/4″ out from Wednesday. 87th & Antioch OP

  9. Kurt October 5, 2017 at 2:52 pm - Reply

    Have only had a few showers since yesterday, less and 1/4 of an inch. Drought monitor shows that most of Buchanan County is now is a D0, abnormally dry. We are at 21.30 inches year-to-date, almost 9 inches below normal. Hoping the new lrc sets up to be with frequent rain and or snow this winter into the spring.

  10. Richard October 5, 2017 at 3:15 pm - Reply

    Where is new blog. When is Gary coming back.

Leave A Comment