Good morning bloggers,

IMG_1296I am still at Hilton Head Island here in South Carolina. We rented bikes and on our way to lunch yesterday we rode by this baby alligator. It was really only three feet long and maybe the mommy alligator was near by, so we were very careful.  This large lizard, can we call it a lizard because I saw some of them on this trip too, was just across the creek on the other side.  The weather here on the east coast of the United States has been influenced by a rather strong and large high pressure area and there has been an onshore easterly breeze at around 20 mph the entire time I have been here.  I would like to thank Jeff Penner for writing the blogs the past few days and I think this is the longest I have taken off from writing the blog in 15 years, which only lasted around four or five days. I hope everyone is doing well and are you ready for a new weather pattern. Are you ready for a weather pattern that has never happened in the history of earth? Yes, a unique pattern is now setting up.  What ignites this to happen every year around the first week of October? Well, we believe we may know what starts it, but of course this is just an idea we are looking into. The sun sets on the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox around September 22nd each year. Then it is twilight, in other words it is not dark at the North Pole until around October 5th to 8th, and this is when we have shown and shared with you over these past 15 years in the blog when we believe the pattern begins. It is October 4th, so we are likely in the last few hours of the old pattern and nearly at the beginning of the new pattern which we can clearly see on the models the past few days.

This morning there is a cold front moving through the Kansas City region. Let’s take a look:

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The temperatures dipped to 28 degrees up in northwest Nebraska.  This cooler air mass is shifting south, but this front will be stalling. Take a look at what happens next:

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That big surface high pressure area off of the east coast is still having a major influence with easterly flow across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The flow then returns to the south over the western plains and the front near the Oklahoma/Kansas border will be stalling.  After the front stalls it will then begin moving north again, shifting into northern Kansas and Nebraska trailing back into Oklahoma. This will likely lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms north and west of Kansas City Friday evening and then the front will move through by Saturday morning. And, then what happens next will be interesting to track by Monday as a much stronger front is forecast to form. I can’s stress this more, as will be into the new pattern by next week as we always are according to the LRC, now the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis as we submit our work for peer review.  Look how strong this front looks, and it is very different than the types of fronts we experienced in last years pattern.

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That is one strong cold front blasting southeast.  On last nights 00z GFS model there was even snow forecast in KC, but hang on everyone, it is no longer on the later overnight run. Remember the October Surprise on October 22, 1996? So, we are moving into the time of the year where it wouldn’t completely be out of the question, but I just don’t see it yet.

The Changing Pattern:

 

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These two maps above show the changing pattern in the next two weeks. Both maps have troughs inland over the west. As much as I do “like” to see this, it is just on the models. I would prefer to see it actually happen before we jump to conclusions on what it could mean for this up coming snow season in KC.  We have been snow “deprived” over the past three straight winters, so I am hopeful for a better pattern. But, being hopeful means nothing. Let’s see how it sets up.  When I first found the cycling pattern in the 1980s I noticed the most critical three weeks was October 15-November 5, but it is still the entire first cycle of the pattern which must be analyzed which can last from the first week of October into early December or possibly even longer. So, I recommend patience.

Have  a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience, this Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.  Let us know if you have any questions. Go to Weather2020.com and click on the blog to join in the conversation.

Gary