Hello October!

/Hello October!

Hello October!

Happy Sunday,

It is hard to believe that it is October! Since this is the first day of the month, it is the previous month’s statistics day.  So, here is a look back at September 2017.

AVERAGE HIGH: 81.6

AVERAGE LOW: 60.6

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 71.1 (+2.9) August was 71.8, so September comes in barely cooler than August, but as of a week ago, September was actually running warmer than August which is not an easy thing to accomplish.

RAINFALL: 2.80″ (-1.82″)

There was one 90 degree day, which occurred on the 21st.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Now, what will October bring?  We have a pretty good idea for the first 5-7 days, but then, as we know, a brand new pattern is evolving so confidence is quite low.  We will have to follow these changes the next several days, weeks and months.  So, lets focus on the next 5-7 days.

MONDAY PM-TUESDAY AM: Warm and humid air will be surging north as dew points climb to around 70 ahead of an approaching front.  You will be able to feel the humidity for sure and you will be able to see the thicker moisture in the form of low clouds.  The low clouds arrive Monday night.  Highs on Monday will be in the 80s with south winds gusting 25-30 mph and increasing humidity.

Blog 1 Final

TUESDAY PM/NIGHT: The front will be a cold front and slowly moving southeast as southwest flow is set up aloft.  Tuesday will be a mostly dry day, with low clouds, wind and highs in the 70s here in KC and surrounding areas.  Thunderstorms will be forming to the northwest.

Blog 2 Final

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will be stalling from around New Mexico to northern Illinois.  The flow will be southwest aloft, parallel to the front. This will set up a 36-48 hour period where rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be tracking southwest to northeast from the southwest Plains to Great Lakes.  This is the recipe for a heavy rain event with minimal severe weather as the flow aloft and instability will be a bit weak.  The best chance of severe weather this week is from Nebraska to Minnesota tonight-Tuesday as the flow aloft will be stronger.

Blog 3 Final

RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS: There is little change in the thinking from Saturday as 2″ to 4″ is likely from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles northeast to the western Great Lakes.  In these situations you can easily see small areas that receive 4″ to 7″.  This is going to be an interesting week of weather.

Blog 4 Final

Have a great week and the next blog update will be Monday afternoon.

Jeff Penner

2017-10-04T07:33:13+00:00 October 1st, 2017|General|23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Snow Miser October 1, 2017 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    I fully expect these storms coming mid-week to show up in December and January as big snow storms. 🙂

    • Richard October 1, 2017 at 12:57 pm - Reply

      Maybe December, but not again in January if 60 day cycles.

    • Rockdoc October 1, 2017 at 1:24 pm - Reply

      Good luck with that. These storms are from this year’s LRC 😂
      Looking beyond the 7th/8th, currently not showing rain until the 12th/13th, but too far out for models for accuracy. 😉

  2. Terry October 1, 2017 at 1:53 pm - Reply

    Jeff said yesterday blog that is storm’s Systems that we are having this week can they be part of the Transition week from Jeff Said Dose it Count To work the new LRC pattern well yes and no they can be part of the new LRC as he stated in the Blog on August 30th.He said we’ll just have to see how it looks when rotatesback throw. Will how it looks when it dose.

  3. Terry October 1, 2017 at 4:02 pm - Reply

    Excuse some of the misspelled words . Usually the 1st day of the cycle it is identified Around the 5th to the 8th of October.

  4. Brian October 1, 2017 at 7:48 pm - Reply

    You have to wait until the weather event happens or doesn’t happen in December. If we get a snow storm it will be said it’s related to the new cycle.

  5. Rockdoc October 1, 2017 at 8:43 pm - Reply

    All I know there is one heck of a storm system in North Central Colorado, and where I’m at, Chaffee County is under winter storm advisory. Snow above 9,000 feet but it could move down to 7,000 feet. I could see squall lines above the mountains before the sun set. It is about 50 degrees with temps dropping about 3 degrees per hour. Got back to the cabin and there is a big buck grazing in the yard. Late night snack before he beds down for the night. Saw a Cow Moose and calf coming over Kenosha Pass yesterday 🤗

    http://kdvr.com/2017/10/01/sunday-snowfall-update-winter-storm-moving-into-colorado-mountains/

    If it snows here I’ll send pics to Jeff and maybe he can post them.

    • Richard October 2, 2017 at 9:57 am - Reply

      Chaffee County. Isn’t that where Salida is ?

      • Rockdoc October 2, 2017 at 12:37 pm - Reply

        Yep, but also extends northward to Leadville. Snow on the peaks of the 14ers down to about 9,000 feet. No snow in the valley. Cool, chilly day with mostly cloudy skies. Good day to stay inside and read.

        • KS Jones October 2, 2017 at 1:42 pm - Reply

          I recommend reading MATCHLESS by Jane Candia Coleman, based on Augusta Tabor’s diaries.
          It is a story with characters of which I’m sure you are already well aware (Horace, Augusta & Baby Doe Tabor), but worth the read.

  6. stl78 October 2, 2017 at 1:04 pm - Reply

    Craig..u look at most recent runs?

  7. blue flash October 2, 2017 at 1:07 pm - Reply

    Latest GSF shows us getting snow on Oct. 18. Another reason not to trust the long-term models!

    • Snow Miser October 2, 2017 at 3:53 pm - Reply

      I just saw that! At least they’re thinking of us. 😉

  8. stl78 October 2, 2017 at 1:17 pm - Reply

    Yep, sure does. Lol

  9. Mike October 2, 2017 at 1:25 pm - Reply

    In Calgary Canada it is snowing and super windy. Winter is starting early!!

  10. LSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 2, 2017 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    LOL, it probably wont even rain!!

    • Terry October 2, 2017 at 2:05 pm - Reply

      Yeah it will Because that storm has been showing up for days already for October the 18th . You’re just hasn’t been shown snow until today .

  11. Terry October 2, 2017 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    So we’re just have to wait and see what happens then. But there has been a storm showing up for that date.

  12. LSMike (DALLAS COWBOYS) October 2, 2017 at 2:38 pm - Reply

    So when is this COLD front going to come in then? I’m ready for it to cool off and get cold!!

  13. Three7s October 2, 2017 at 3:29 pm - Reply

    It’s not going to happen, but the fact that there’s even snow showing up on a model run this early is pretty impressive.

  14. Michael Casteel October 2, 2017 at 3:31 pm - Reply

    Pretty dry month for us up here in Maryville. I recorded three rain events for the entire month! The most came on Sept. 17th, with a recording of 1.00″. And the least of .25″ on Sept. 19th. With a month total of 1.99″. Second least this year behind February. So I am happy for this moisture heading this way! Have a great Monday and GO Chiefs!!!!
    Michael

Leave A Comment