It is hard to believe that it is October! Since this is the first day of the month, it is the previous month’s statistics day. So, here is a look back at September 2017.
AVERAGE HIGH: 81.6
AVERAGE LOW: 60.6
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 71.1 (+2.9) August was 71.8, so September comes in barely cooler than August, but as of a week ago, September was actually running warmer than August which is not an easy thing to accomplish.
RAINFALL: 2.80″ (-1.82″)
There was one 90 degree day, which occurred on the 21st.
Now, what will October bring? We have a pretty good idea for the first 5-7 days, but then, as we know, a brand new pattern is evolving so confidence is quite low. We will have to follow these changes the next several days, weeks and months. So, lets focus on the next 5-7 days.
MONDAY PM-TUESDAY AM: Warm and humid air will be surging north as dew points climb to around 70 ahead of an approaching front. You will be able to feel the humidity for sure and you will be able to see the thicker moisture in the form of low clouds. The low clouds arrive Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s with south winds gusting 25-30 mph and increasing humidity.
TUESDAY PM/NIGHT: The front will be a cold front and slowly moving southeast as southwest flow is set up aloft. Tuesday will be a mostly dry day, with low clouds, wind and highs in the 70s here in KC and surrounding areas. Thunderstorms will be forming to the northwest.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will be stalling from around New Mexico to northern Illinois. The flow will be southwest aloft, parallel to the front. This will set up a 36-48 hour period where rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be tracking southwest to northeast from the southwest Plains to Great Lakes. This is the recipe for a heavy rain event with minimal severe weather as the flow aloft and instability will be a bit weak. The best chance of severe weather this week is from Nebraska to Minnesota tonight-Tuesday as the flow aloft will be stronger.
RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS: There is little change in the thinking from Saturday as 2″ to 4″ is likely from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles northeast to the western Great Lakes. In these situations you can easily see small areas that receive 4″ to 7″. This is going to be an interesting week of weather.
Have a great week and the next blog update will be Monday afternoon.