Happy Friday Bloggers,
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Friday: Incredibly nice weather for mid-August. Sunny with a light northeast wind at less than 10 mph. High: 81°
- Friday Night: Clear and pleasant with light winds, calm most of the night. Low: 61°
- Saturday: Sunny with winds around 5 mph to calm. Another incredibly nice summer day. High: 81°
- Sunday: A few clouds with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High: 79° with light east winds.
The Cycling Weather Pattern
In this late week blog I am going to share with you where we are in the cycling weather pattern. It is absolutely fascinating. I believe that you will fall into one of three main groups. Either you are a complete skeptic and you believe it is complete chaos in the upper levels of the tropospheric circulation, which is where we experience weather on this earth. 99.9% of weather happens within the troposphere which extends from the air you are breathing now all the up to around 60,000 to 70,000 feet in the warm season and around 30,000 feet in the cold season. The second group may actually believe that we have stumbled across something rather ground breaking in science, in atmospheric science, but you may not believe we can get as specific in our forecasts, but may feel there is some merit to what we are doing and sharing with you. Then, there is likely a third group who absolutely believes that the pattern is cycling as described by our Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. In this third group you actually have experienced the accuracy of our forecasts, some of our inaccurate forecasts, and have tried to see this big puzzle that exists above us. This is, of course, what our Weather2020 team not just believes, but sees. Meteorologist Doug Heady, who works in the Joplin television market as the Chief Meteorologist at KOMA has been using his knowledge of the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH) to make his month long forecasts on the air for many years. He sees the answers to the puzzle. Meteorologist Brett Anthony has been using his knowledge of the CPH for many years and there have been so many viewers in the Tulsa market who have experienced his “uncanny” accuracy on predicting Tulsa’s seasonal snow totals for years and his forecasts of when storm systems will strike. Eswar Iyer, a graduate student who is getting his Masters of Science degree from the University of Oklahoma this fall has been using the CPH for the better part of six years in making forecasts for businesses that have used our Weather2020 forecasts. Jeff Penner has worked with me for 25 years now. I introduced this to him when we first met, and here we are 25 years later and the scientific world has yet to understand or even know about the CPH, also known as the LRC. Bob Lyons, our Chief Technology Officer, in coordination with myself and Jeff, has developed a weather model that has been at its best during the January through March time frame. We are currently working on various adjustments, revisions, to the model to make it more accurate and this is just scratching the surface. Jeff Hutton, National Weather Service DDC, says he remembers me discussing this with him while we were in college, but I firmly remember the year that I saw the true answer to this puzzle, to what others think is just chaos in the river of air flowing above us. It was in the year 1987-1988 when Oklahoma City had two one foot snow storms, and many other major storms that season. It was the second one foot snow storm in January of 1988 that I realized that the storm at the 500 mb level was awfully similar to the storm from early December. Two one foot snow storms in a place that averages around 7 or 8 inches of snow per year. How is that possible? There is only one way bloggers. It is possible if the “same” pattern was cycling regularly with predictability if you know a few things about that weather pattern. Gary England, retired KWTV Chief Meteorologist, said to me as a storm system was approaching OKC in 2009-2010 winter, “I saw it. Lezak, I saw it, but now I can’t find it again”. It is that complex. Gary England, who is our Senior Advisor for Weather202o, saw the CPH for around a week, but then couldn’t find the puzzle again. It is really, truly, that complex.
Okay, now open your mind to this. And, for those of you reading this for the first time you can go back into the past year snd see dozens of examples that showcase this years pattern. I presented, at the American Meteorological Society’s Broadcast conference in June, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. This will be in our peer review paper that is begin submitted this year for scientific acceptance and review. The pattern has been shown to be cycling in the 56-61 day range, centered on the very important 58-59 day period, or 58.5 day cycle. We have shown all of the qualitative analysis with map descriptions, but now we have the scientific quantification which verifies and validates what we have done with the “art” of being able to see the pattern, to “see” the answer to the puzzle. The “scientific” or mathematical method does indeed verify and validate what we have been sharing with you for years. This years pattern, that set up on the fall, has been clearly shown to be in the 58 to 59 day range. The mathematical, statistical analysis now validates that the most likely cycle length is exactly what we have seen and shown with the map analysis.
Looking at the pattern this week:
We showed the Cycling pattern and shared our insight with Dr. Howie Bluestein, a year and half ago. He said, “you have convinced me”, but now we need to do a statistical analysis to verify. And, he said, “I just have never thought about this. I never have thought about a pattern past a few days”. This is why there is so much skepticism, and why our peer review paper is so important and essential for getting this technology out to the world.
Now look at these two maps above. How is it possible that a pattern from December could be similar to a pattern from August. And, not just similar, but as our Weather2020 team of meteorologists, Jeff, Brett, Eswar, Doug, and I would tell, you, “it isn’t just similar, it’s the “same”. As Gary England said, “It’s the same, but different”, if that makes sense. Sure, it’s different. There has to be seasonal difference. Now, look again at the two maps. I numbered the features that are “the same, but different”. This part of the pattern has now cycled through six times. But, something very new will begin evolving in five to six weeks. Yes, the new CPH will set up, and it will be a pattern that has never happened in the history of the earth. This is one of the aspects of the CPH. Every pattern is unique. And, it can go from the Synoptic, to the Meso, to the Micro scale. We have shown many examples of each. By going down to the “meso” and “micro” scales our Weather2020 team has the ability to make the forecasts as specific as down to a series of dates, and many times down to the date even 200 days out. There is an unfortunate limitation to forecasting using the CPH. The new, unique pattern will set up in the fall. Since we do not know what it is in October, there is one gray area that lasts around six to eight weeks. but, by December, or at the latest January we will once again know what the pattern is and our forecasts become incredibly accurate from January through September.
What is happening now? The big ridge in feature #5 is right on schedule, but there is a seasonal twist to the August version of the cycling pattern. I firmly expected the ridge to be dominating August over the middle to southern part of the United States, but instead in this cycle 6 version the ridge is forming way up over Canada and this seasonal difference is creating the conditions for heavy thunderstorm complexes over parts of the plains as the flow is cutting underneath the ridge. So, instead of summer heat over middle America, we are getting a cooler air mass with these thunderstorm complexes, one of which I am experiencing early this morning near the Arkansas/Missouri border. The ridge is having a big impact on the Pacific northwest this month.
Feature #5 in the two first two maps show the ridge that was there in December and it is impacting now. How is it impacting. The National Weather Service has a rather large Air Quality Alert out for the Pacific Northwest that has had a major heat wave that was predictable by using the CPH. Features one to four on those two maps are directly responsible for the conditions for the two Supercells with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings over Kansas. This rare August set-up is directly related to the pattern that cycled through just before the first day of winter.
Take a look at the forecast HRRR for 4 AM tonight:
Those Supercell thunderstorms will be monitored closely, as this is the beginning of what the HRR model is showing for later tonight. If this is correct, then I may want to get to bed a bit early on my vacation at Table Rock Lake. These thunderstorms would be “blasting” through just before sunrise. I will let you know what happens.
The winter that brought this region practically nothing, has had a summer that has surrounded Kansas City with drier conditions, and yet some spots have been wet with some major flooding. What happens next? This weekend will will be close enough to see if the models have a clue on the cycling pattern for the eclipse that will be within ten days.
Have a great weekend and thank you for participating in this weather forecast experience on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.