The Cool August Pattern Continues

/The Cool August Pattern Continues

The Cool August Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

IMG_0476

IMG_0482Sunny & I got out early this morning to get some pictures of the sunrise and the moonset, which happen nearly at the same time when there is a full moon. How is the corn doing?  How are the soybeans?  As you can see here, the corn fields on 135th street near Mission Road are looking about as good as I have ever seen.  Yesterday, by the way, Sunny went after a rabbit. The rabbit ran under the fence. Sunny didn’t see the fence and she smashed into it.  She got a bruise right below her eye, but she will be just fine.  Today, we are heading down to Table Rock Lake. It does appear there will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday down there.  Today, however, the weather is outstanding.  On the surface map, as you can see below, high pressure is again building over the plains in response to this cycling weather pattern. Where is the summer heat? A big ridge is forming way up into Canada. We did expect this to happen, but I thought it would be a huge closed off anticyclone. Instead, in this version of the pattern it is a big ridge that is allowing for Great Lakes troughs to dive south and create these surface highs with our potential thunderstorms through the plains, and over the eastern states.

3

How is this the same pattern? Well, take a look at these two maps, and watch the video I made this morning:

Cycle 6 on August 6th:

Cycle 6 August 6

Here is the pattern 234 days earlier, or exactly on cycle at 58.5 X 4.  This is December 15th. Just add in a bunch of lines and you can see the same pattern. There is a lot more energy in the flow on December 15th:

Cycle 2 December 15

Here is the video that will put it together for you:

The Cycling Weather Pattern In August from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Let us know if you have any questions. I will be on the road today and the next blog may come later in the day on Wednesday. Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Click on the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Gary

2017-08-10T16:19:13+00:00 August 8th, 2017|General|16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Craig August 8, 2017 at 9:07 am - Reply

    This seems like a valuable piece of information so I thought I’d post it here.
    Perhaps Gary will read it.
    “Judith Curry retires, citing ‘craziness’ of climate science”
    https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798

  2. RP August 8, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Gary when are we going to get some rain here in North MO? we have missed all the rains for last month and have started into drought as our corn and beans are getting worse daily! we need a drink in the worst way!

    • Gary August 8, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

      RP,

      The latest NAM leaves northern Missouri dry again this week while southern Missouri gets some heavy rain. It’s the same pattern and there is nothing we can do about it. Later this month there will be some better chances for you.

      I can only imagine. As you can see, the corn down south is incredible.

      Gary

  3. Richard August 8, 2017 at 9:59 am - Reply

    Gary are you saying you do not now expect that 3 day heat wave in August ?
    Where is that August calendar that was posted in the blog. Anyone ?

    Maybe September will switch places with August. Warm/dry.

  4. Richard August 8, 2017 at 10:11 am - Reply

    Found that calendar. August 2 blog.

    http://weather2020.com/2017/08/02/the-month-long-august-forecast/

    Shows HOT on the 18th 19th 20th

    Gary is that what the team is still thinking ?

  5. Michael Garner August 8, 2017 at 10:27 am - Reply

    So you expected the beginning of August to start below average by a large number? I’m not talking about low temps being low but highs and lows being really below average? 60 days ago would have said differently?

  6. Michael Garner August 8, 2017 at 10:40 am - Reply

    I’m only asking because maybe I missed the forecast that the first 7 days in August would be 8.2 BELOW average compared to the first 7 days in June that were 4.2 ABOVE average. That is a big difference and based upon future forecast the first half of August is going to be below and I’m hearing, thru non local sources, that the second half would be warmer. The scone half of June was below normal, only by 2.1, but below non the less. To me I would think June and August should be somewhat similar as the jet stream is somewhat similar, at least compared to the jet stream say April verses August. Also if the first half of August is wet (I know Kurt you are not) but in average many areas may experience or halve already experienced a wet first half will the second half be wet like we have been seeing? Just asking to learn. Maybe I should watch the video now and see what you say.

    • Snowflake August 8, 2017 at 12:30 pm - Reply

      This will be an interesting comparison between Gary’s theory and some traditional longer-range forecasting techniques such as the Climate Prediction Center.

      The CPC currently shows a ~75% liklihood of BELOW normal temperatures for August 15-21.
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

      Whereas Gary has been calling for well above average temps for that period.
      Specifically, his theory calls for highs of:
      08/15: 96
      08/16: 95
      08/17: 92
      08/18: 99
      08/19: 95
      08/20: 93
      08/21: 88
      This will be an interesting comparison between Gary’s theory and some traditional longer-range forecasting techniques such as the Climate Prediction Center.

      The CPC currently shows a ~75% likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures for August 15-21.

      Whereas Gary has been calling for well above average temps for that period.
      His theory calls for highs of:
      08/15: 96
      08/16: 95
      08/17: 92
      08/18: 99
      08/19: 95
      08/20: 93
      08/21: 88
      (numbers from graph in gary’s blog post from July 30)

      • Gary August 9, 2017 at 6:20 am - Reply

        It isn’t my theory calling for that forecast, Maybe you are pulling it from the computer model. Remember, just like any model, it is a model. The forecast we make as human beings will be much better. We are looking at that model, but just like using another model, you use it as guidance. Then you make your forecast. This is how we made the forecast for the flooding event two weeks ago better than anyone else. We didn’t use the exact model output from any model. There wasn’t one model that had the heavy rain on 103rd and Wornall, but out prediction in the blog and on the air picked out that area. The weather forecaster uses the models as guidance, and then if you are really good you can throw out the bad model. So, back to what you are saying that my theory predicted this or that. I believe you are saying the model predicted it and not my theory. My theory predicted that this cool period would happen in the first half of August. The model may not have. The model is our first attempt at modeling the cycling pattern. Like any model, we will make adjustments and it will get better. The model has shown that it does its best during the winter months. The summer has had a warm bias. We already made adjustments to the model and it has come out better, but it needs some work. We will see how that model did for August for every zip code in the USA. To use what the CPC shows, you should go back a few months and see what the CPC showed, not the latest forecast?

        I am down at the lake having a great time. I had no internet connection yesterday, but have one this morning.

        Gary

  7. V August 8, 2017 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    No shock that Dayton International Airport has not recorded a 90-degree high since June 12th this year. If this continues to stand throughout the entire August into all of September, the earliest last 90 on record previously set on July 8, 1971 is going to be in jeopardy. Sure that we’ve had a wet spring that would eventually kept nearly all 90-degrees at bay. Though not a primary factor, but there have also been numerous eruptions of Mount Bogoslof in Alaska that started as early as last December which I likely see as one of the causes partially responsible for this year’s unusual Summer patterns. True that the LRC’s new patterns develop between the beginning of October and near mid-November, but it makes me wonder if the establishment of the upcoming 2017-2018 LRC may be heading to an early start this year.

  8. Richard August 8, 2017 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    Urbanity
    I believe it was you. How are things going with your wife.
    Praying you get better news if you get to MD Anderson

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 8, 2017 at 3:01 pm - Reply

      I’m afraid He’s got bigger problems than the weather now, might not see him as much going through all that. Wish he and his family the best

  9. KS Jones August 8, 2017 at 4:33 pm - Reply

    I just finished measuring our soybean plants at three different places. The plants I measured were all 38″ tall and their canopy shades the 30″ row spacing. 
    The crop matures rapidly at this stage of growth (and season).
    I didn’t count the pods per plant, but the clusters look good and they are still blooming.
    The average length of the pods is about 3/4″, but some are twice that size.
    No insect infestation so far, but that could still happen.

  10. Anonymous August 9, 2017 at 9:45 am - Reply

    Interesting, the first time I’ve heard the word ‘moonset”

  11. DanT August 9, 2017 at 1:47 pm - Reply

    Enjoy the lake vacation. I spent 4 days at Taneycomo (Branson) doing some Trout fishing. Yesterday went up to the Table Rock Dam and they have some really cool information about flood control and how the flood control system works throughout the entire area to prevent major flooding along the White River.

Leave A Comment