Wet or Dry? It depends on where you live!

/Wet or Dry? It depends on where you live!

Wet or Dry? It depends on where you live!

Good morning bloggers,

SAT_CUS_WVENH

An active pattern continues. This is quite unusual for early August and we have been setting some record lows. In Kansas City it dropped to 52 degrees Friday morning.  This record cool air mass set the stage for the heavy rain event that was about to happen one day later, and then Saturday the cooler air was trapped and KC had a record low high for the date, and the coolest first week of August high temperature ever recorded.  There have been a couple of days in the past in the second half of the month, but to have it in the first few days of August is actually a very difficult thing to do, to have a high of 65 degrees.

5

Here is the surface map I plotted on Saturday afternoon:

Surface2

Isn’t it amazing that the heavy rain target I drew in was also the center of the coolest air?   It was 102 in Alva, OK at the same time it was 63° in Overland Park, KS.  And, then this happened just a few hours later:

August 5-6 Rain Wide

Even more amazing than the 10″ of rain that fell is the fact that only 0.10″ fell, or really almost no rain fell to the northeast in the shadow of this heavy rain event. This has been happening most of this season.

Rainfall since June 1:  

  • Overland Park, KS:  21.66″ (Since July 1:  16.22″)
  • Saint Joseph, MO:  4.72″  (Since July 1:  1.95″)
  • Omaha, NE:  4.46″  (Since July 1:  1.32″)
  • Des Moines, IA: 4.23″  (Since July 1:  1.89″)
  • Saint Louis, MO:  4.23″  (Since July 1:  1.39″)

Wow!  Kansas City is wet in the middle of a dry pattern?  Well, these stats show that well.  This was a map ending last week. The new one will be posted in a few minutes:

Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 7.45.57 AM

This pretty much confirms my point as you can see the one small area that is wet near KC.

Tropical Storm Franklin formed just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  This will likely not have enough time to form into a hurricane.

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We will look into this weeks pattern on 41 Action News and in the blogs this week.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and we are having some great conversations over on the Weather2020 blog. You can go over there and join in!

Gary

2017-08-08T08:23:11+00:00 August 7th, 2017|General|16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Richard August 7, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

    Hey Kurt

    JL wrote about St Joe lack of rain in his blog today with precip maps.

    http://fox4kc.com/2017/08/07/joes-weather-blog-the-curious-dryness-to-our-north-barely-mon-87/

    Gary once in a blue moon I go over there to read the blog. But I never listen to any of their forecasts. Or anyone elses.

    • Kurt August 7, 2017 at 9:31 am - Reply

      That’s interesting, although I am very surprised that 1993 was that dry from 6/1 – 8/7/1993, I don’t think that’s right with all the massive flooding? But wow we’re drier in the last 60 plus days that we were in 2012. Not sure how that happens that we keep missing out on the rain, just hope this isn’t the start of something longer term.

      • Richard August 7, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

        Yup. Pretty incredible that ’93 was drier than ’12 in St. Joe. Surprised me.

  2. Steve August 7, 2017 at 9:52 am - Reply

    SW Of Hiawatha only received .33″ of rain all weekend!!! Were dry!

  3. Eric August 7, 2017 at 10:28 am - Reply

    I’m a snow lover so too bad this wetter pattern didn’t happen during the winter! I would have loved that! By the way why was this winter so dry and now this summer is very wet? I am a weather novice but just curious how the LRC works in this situation. Is it due to the different seasons? If that’s the case is there a cycle within a cycle. Meaning the LRC and other parts of the puzzle have a main cycle then with each season it sorta has its own cycle with different variables that can change the bigger main cycle. Does that make sense? haha

    • Dakota August 8, 2017 at 7:46 am - Reply

      Eric,

      I do not know the exact reason for what has happened in this year’s cycle, so i’ll let Gary or Jeff answer that, but we know that the CPH has seasonal variations that are caused by annual fluctuations in the jet stream and NAO. There are also “harmonics” in the main cycle that could be described as “cycles within a cycle” like you mentioned above. I would be curious to hear Gary’s expert analysis of why the winter was much drier than the summer around here.

  4. REAL HUMEDUDE August 7, 2017 at 10:49 am - Reply

    Only got 1.3″ at the farm out of that whole deal over the weekend, was really wishing for more of a flooding type rain to fill my pit back up. Ii ended up being a perfect rain for the blooming beans, and corn is still filling out in places so the rain was put to good use. Maybe I will catch something with the next round, still doing pretty good in these parts moisture wise and creek is still trickling along

  5. Rockdoc August 7, 2017 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Good Morning Gary and Weather 2020 folks. Just ran the 06z GFS and the storm down near Mexico looks like it may cross into Cat 2 category Wednesday evening. Model shows in NW quadrant, about 10 o’clock position, ~ 84 kts or 96 mph wind. This would assume that the winds are sustained. For those who haven’t looked it up a tropical storm (39 mph – 73 mph) moves to Cat 1 hurricane with winds of 74 mph up to 95 mph. A Cat 2 hurricane is from 96 mph – 110 mph, Cat 3 is from 111 mph – 130 mph, Cat 4 is 131 mph – 155 mph and a Cat 5 storm is 156 mph or greater.

    Also of note, storms are named when they move from tropical depression into the tropical storm category. I find the weather associated with hurricanes to be totally fascinating. This is what started me on my weather bug journey.

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2017080706&fh=66&r=mx&dpdt=

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 7, 2017 at 4:21 pm - Reply

      Doc – I wouldn’t put much stock in the GFS wind product in relation to Hurricane strength. GFS has very poor wind related guidance in Tropical situations, if it was that easy they wouldn’t risk Hurricane hunter’s lives to fly through them to get the real time data. The only way to measure their strength with any accuracy is old fashioned way, models aren’t to be trusted there

      • Rockdoc August 7, 2017 at 5:07 pm - Reply

        HI Hume. Glad to hear you did get some rain. I was hoping that you would have received a good 3-4 inches. But alas, not this storm. Maybe next one?

        As for the GFS and other models, I know that they are not exact the farther out in time you go, but given that Wednesday is only 2 days out, the certainty increases. I agree, the only way to get an exact read on hurricanes is for the hunters to fly into the eye of the storm and collect as many measurements as they can. I was only describing what was on the model results, not that this was an exact given. Usually I preface model results with “if they verify”…..;-) Have a GREAT Evening!

  6. Richard August 7, 2017 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    So Gary have a nice couple of days off. Good weather for it.
    Awesome August weather.

    Do you still expect that short heat wave later this month ? I forget the dates.
    I was looking for that August calendar in the blogs. No luck

  7. Nick August 7, 2017 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    No, St. Joe was not drier in 1993 than 2012, I remember it, my Aunt had a natural spring come up in her yard that summer (just in time for the city’s water plant to flood) and that was the only summer that happened, I’m not sure why the total is so low, but, Rosecrannes (the site of our weather recordings) did flood out with Elwood, so that would account for some of it as you can’t record rainfall if the site is underwater. :p and while this doesnt quite get to St. Joe you can tell we had much more rain than that…
    http://www.weather.gov/images/gid/climate/MonthlyPrecipitationMaps/1993.07.jpg

    • Richard August 7, 2017 at 8:40 pm - Reply

      Nick
      I don’t know. I just saw it on the St Joe stat chart that JL put out on his blog.
      Your link, though everywhere looks under water but doesn’t show St Joe on there. Maybe it was under a dome ? 😄

      It would be interesting to see another stat chart.

  8. Nick August 7, 2017 at 9:06 pm - Reply

    True it doesnt quite reach, but the maps ( assuming the link is working :p) show that just to our west it was much wetter and it would be tough ( not impossible) but tough to see St. Joe will less than 3 inches of rain through that period based off of what you can see. I think it was because the site got flooded out that the reading is so low. 93′ was a crazy summer for a kid who liked storms, every morning it seemed like it was just pouring.

    • KS Jones August 7, 2017 at 10:26 pm - Reply

      I believe the heavy rain began in June 1993. As I recall, it started in southern Iowa and then drifted west.

      http://www.newspressnow.com/news/a-tale-of-two-floods/article_8d6b9dbd-16c2-5ded-bebc-093799594fb7.html

      The National Weather Service started warning folks in May 1993 that there could be flooding, and in June there was some flooding in Buchanan and Doniphan counties. But in June 1993, it wasn’t the Missouri River, it was the tributaries flooding east of St. Joseph.

      It took another month in 1993 before the Missouri River made up its mind.

      By the end of July that year, St. Joseph residents had lost their water system, much of Elwood was under water and U.S. Highway 36 was closed as Missouri River water inundated areas around St. Joseph.

  9. Nick August 8, 2017 at 12:03 am - Reply

    Yea June and July were very wet, and yes the platte river to our east made many headlines along with others, I remember seeing a news story on flooding to our north (Iowa/Nebraska/Minn?) on CNN at my grandmothers house that year and that was the first time I started hearing about the flood and the coming flood, then it seemed like I remember getting tonnes of rain and it went from there, thankfully we lived in a hilly area, but I remember visiting my Grandfather as he was guarding a makeshift levee as a police officer and sitting on the levee and seeing railroad tracks and a house in the distance in water, I remember my Dad pointing out trees in the distance as where the river should be, its one of those things I will always remember.

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