Another Heavy Rain Event & The Cycling Pattern

/Another Heavy Rain Event & The Cycling Pattern

Another Heavy Rain Event & The Cycling Pattern

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Jeff Penner and I just measured 4.78″ of rain here on the Plaza. I measured 3.05″ at my place in Overland Park. Wow! And, once again there were spots that got missed. St. Joseph officially had 0.21″ of rain from the entire event.  The same spots keep getting hit, and the same spots that have been missed keep getting missed.  Our weather team has been using our knowledge of the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and other weather forecast tools and methods to accurately make predictions for these big rainfall events.

Here are the radar estimated totals from this last big rain event.  Remember, these are radar estimates, so your rain gauge will very likely read differently.

The heaviest rain in Kansas City occurred from Bonner Springs to Lee’s Summit with amounts 4″ to 7″.  Despite these high rainfall totals, we avoided a major flood catastrophe as the rain ended midnight to 2 AM.  If it ended 2 AM to 4 AM we could have had some big issues around the city as creeks and streams were at their brink by 2 AM.  The other reasons we avoided a huge flood mess  is that the rainfall rate was just a shade less than the event from July 26-27 and the rain, overall occurred over a longer period of time.  It was just enough to avoid a major Indian Creek flood.

August 5-6 Rain South KC

The northern part of Kansas City received 2″ to 3″, except northeast Clay county that saw .25″ to 1″.  These seem like smaller amounts, but remember the whole month of August average is 3.89″ of rain

August 5-6 Rain North KC

These rainfall totals will not seem small.  Look at these amounts from south of Warrensburg to around Osage Beach, 8″ to nearly 11″!

August 5-6 Rain South MO

When you look at the state of Missouri, amounts ranged from 10″-11″ in the Ozarks to none-.10″ in northern sections.  This is why giving us a hard time on the forecast may be fun, but frankly, it is a waste of time.  We did quite well forecasting this event with a 2-3 day lead time.

August 5-6 Rain Wide

Now, what is next?  Let’s go through the week ahead.

Today will see lots of clouds, but the rain is over and any showers in northern MO will end.  Most of the rain will move into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.  Highs will be in the 70s.

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MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  We will be tracking weak disturbances moving east out of the Rockies.  They will bring areas of showers and thunderstorm to the western Plains, but by the time they reach our area they will be reduced to producing clouds as a surface high pressure brings comfortable east to northeast winds. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s.  A few showers and thunderstorms may sneak in Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: These will be the days with our next chance of bigger thunderstorms.  It is too early to tell ff this will become an excessive event.

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How does this fit into the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? There are many of you out there thinking that we can not predict events like the one that happened last night in a forecast from weeks to months ago, but this is simply not true.  Here is what I wrote a few days ago.

We have just started the sixth cycle of this years weather pattern. A unique weather pattern sets up every fall according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  The pattern usually begins between the 5th and 10th of October. The pattern that sets up, then evolves, and becomes established during October and November. By December we can see and experience the pattern repeating. Incredibly, the pattern then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer with a regular cycle.  This years cycle fell into the 56-61 day range centered on 58 to 59 days.  Let’s look at what happened around this week in each cycle:

  • Cycle 1, around October 13th:  Kansas City was close to having an early freeze on October 13th.  The low was 35 degrees with a high of 58. Just four days later it was 87 with a low of 71, then it was back down to 38 degrees on the 21st
  • Cycle 2, around December 11th (59 days later):  Kansas City had a low of 20 degrees with a high of 44.  It dropped to 13 on the 12th, and then to NINE DEGREES BELOW ZERO on the 18th.  2″ of snow fell on December 17th, 2 of the whopping 5.3″ of snow this past winter.
  • Cycle 3, around February 8th (59 days later):  The low was 15 degrees with a high of 27. IT WAS 69 degrees just two days later. INCREDIBLE warm up. And, we know how dry it was in February
  • Cycle 4, around April 8th (59 days later):  It was 34 degrees for a low on the 7th, then it warmed up to 77 degrees on the 8th, and then back down to 37 degrees  on the 11th
  • Cycle 5, around June 6th (59 days later):  It was 82 degrees with a low of 65, but wait a second.  It dropped to lows of 59, 58, and 56 degrees on the 7th-8th-9th
  • Cycle 6, around August 4th (59 days later):  It appears we will be in the 50s for lows again later this week which will be close to record lows.  Also, on Saturday we set a record for the coldest high on August 5th and we tied for the 5th coldest August high ever.

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What makes these cold period so amazing in this year’s CPH, is that they were somewhat extreme in a few of the cycles during what was otherwise a warm and snow-less winter.

We did not predict this event that just happened, but we could have done it by using the second cycle.  In the second cycle of this years pattern, during the December 11th to December 18th time frame, Kansas City had the coldest temperature of the season and our first inch of snow.  The temperature dropped to 9 below zero on the 18th of December. How will our forecast improve in the future by using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? We are actually doing it now and testing it  out by blending the cycles. The December results blended in would have been a strong indicator of thunderstorms during the first week of August and a near record cool period. We just set two record lows.  It was not forecast by our team, but we could have had it in there. As we learn more, these forecasts will only get better. We have a peer review paper that will be submitted to one of the top journals in weather science this year. We will be sharing this with the rest of our scientific community soon, and of course we have been sharing this with you for around 15 years now in this blog and in the Weather2020 blog.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary and Jeff

2017-08-08T08:22:45+00:00 August 6th, 2017|General|29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. j-ox August 6, 2017 at 9:51 am - Reply

    2.5″ in NW Lawrence. Keep it coming. Green August!

  2. Joshua August 6, 2017 at 9:53 am - Reply

    4.2″ 79th & Antioch

  3. Kurt August 6, 2017 at 10:01 am - Reply

    .35 my final total as the sun peeks out. Very discouraging to have a 90 percent chance of 2 to 3 inches of rain and not even get half and inch.

    Not a green August up here, brown and withering

    • j-ox August 6, 2017 at 10:56 am - Reply

      Definitely feel for y’all up there, Kurt. ’12 sucked the life out of me…and our water bill was proof. Was a green backyard bordered by the brown city park behind us that Summer. Seeing/experiencing all the ‘natural’ stress was disparaging.

  4. Mr. Pete August 6, 2017 at 10:02 am - Reply

    4.3 somerset and mission road PVKS.

  5. George August 6, 2017 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Got 4 inches here at my house 87th & Antioch

  6. Ben August 6, 2017 at 11:05 am - Reply

    I had a bad feeling about this one for us up North. It just seemed all along it would slip to the south. Guess we should have expected it since it was dry for the first part of June during the last cycle. Bean crop is gonna go down hill fast if we don’t get some rain this week

    • KS Jones August 6, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

      Yesterday, I was reading about the extreme rainfall differences in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and how soybeans have suffered from both drought and excess rainfall. Excessive rainfall with resulting saturated soil can be more devastating to soybeans than stretches of hot dry weather. Wet weather can also make plants more prone to disease and insect infestation. In some cases, soybeans have suffered from poor root development in wet soil, and others have simply drowned.
      We had a three week hot & dry spell in the first part of July, but got 0.8″ on July 22nd, and have had four rain events since then (July 26, July 31, August 3 and August 5) for a total of 4.27″ in that two-week period.
      We got 0.8″ from round one yesterday, and round two missed us completely. Can’t complain about that, as It is very green all through this area and even our bluegrass lawn managed to stay green through the hot & dry spell. It didn’t even turn brown through the winter, and the temperature dropped to 15° below zero on December 18th.
      Soybeans here are looking good, and the native grass is thriving. There is a tint of yellow-brown in the native grassland, but that is because many types of grasses have gone to seed. Seed spikes on sideoats grama are most dominate now, but big bluestem and other varieties have bolted too.

  7. Kurt August 6, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply

    Ready for 2 months from now when the awful lrc is dead. Wonder if the governor can declare the dry areas a disaster area so the farmers can get sims relief. I don’t think the beans up here will produce and think the corn is going to have lower yields

    • Joe August 6, 2017 at 12:05 pm - Reply

      Kurt,

      I realize you haven’t received the rains up in your area however, it is not as severe as you make it out to be. Brown yards and withering plants do not constitute a disaster declaration. Think of what the west coast endured recently. According to the drought monitor, you aren’t yet in a drought. Is it possible the crop yields will be diminished? yes. Seriously, I know you want rain but you are seriously acting like you are in an exceptional drought. I sincerely hope you get rain soon but it would help for you to put things in prospective. The positive side of this is you aren’t drought stricken and received enough rain this spring to provide adequate subsoil moisture to endure a dry period. here is to looking forward to a new LRC

      • Gary August 6, 2017 at 12:19 pm - Reply

        It may not be that severe, but the frustration level has to be extreme for Kurt. We have all been there before. Keep us updated Kurt and thank you for the input Joe.

        Go Royals,

        Gary

      • Kurt August 6, 2017 at 12:45 pm - Reply

        Joe,

        I have no idea how the crops are fairing up here, fortunately I’m not a crop farmer. They do looked stressed. I wasn’t comparing to California but it’s dry and not sure the drought monitor is the best indicator, certainly we are abnormally dry up here, with roughly 50 percent of normal the last two months.

        Would be ideal to get some experts to do some surveys, just not sure it’s on everyone’s mind with the eclipse hype

  8. stl78 August 6, 2017 at 11:33 am - Reply

    Gary are you still thinking dry first half of August and wet second half?

  9. Cody August 6, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

    Up north “St. Joe” has been missed all year so how can one say the LRC is awful if it’s going off recurring cycles. Wouldn’t it fit the script is St Joe keeps getting missed but KC keeps getting pounded month after month.

    • Kurt August 6, 2017 at 1:02 pm - Reply

      I’m saying the weather that we’re getting up here is awful, bad lrc for rain up north.

  10. sedsinkc August 6, 2017 at 11:48 am - Reply

    4.40″ in KC North just S of Gladstone. Glad that line of storms started sagging south and spared us from even more rain.

  11. Doug August 6, 2017 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    This pattern reminds me of winters past where St, Joe and Marysville would get several inches of snow and the KC Metro area might get a dusting.

  12. ClassyCat August 6, 2017 at 1:07 pm - Reply

    4.4 inches total 143rd and Switzer about 2 miles west of you Gary. That makes around 18 inches at my house since July 1st. That is just absurd.

  13. Kurt August 6, 2017 at 1:13 pm - Reply

    Will be funny if st Joseph gets slammed this winter and Kansas City is left with nothing. Fickle lrc. At least the temps are enjoyable and I don’t have to water as much during cooler stretches. And I’ve only mowed 4 times since mid June

  14. Bill in Lawrence August 6, 2017 at 1:23 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Sunday afternoon to you sir.

    1.5 inches in the Washington Creek Valley SW of Lawrence. We missed the deluge that hit Lawrence proper around 8:30 last night but again, feel blessed with the well timed rain.

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  15. Michael Garner August 6, 2017 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    Beginning of June was warm and dry. More above average days then not. June 1 (+3), June 2 (+6), June 3 (+6), June 4 (+6), June 5 (+8) [August 4, 60 days later, was -13 for temps, not just the low but high plus low divided by 2 to get the average temp] June 6 (+3), August 5 (-17) June 7, 8, 9, (-1, -2, -1), June 10 (+6), June 11 (+10). My point to all this is August is not starting out above average like June did, and a lot wetter, at least even at KCI. As the official reporting station, like it or not. Low temperatures may have dropped like you are comparing but overall the beginning of June above average, we don’t just go by low temps. I’m not trying to be a weasel, but so far this month it appears to be the opposite of June. Maybe I’m wrong though?

  16. Nick August 6, 2017 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    I would say that in terms of intensity, the dryness here in St. Joe isnt too bad because of getting some rains this spring, but for a weather junkie, it is one of the worst LRC’s you can have, because while 2012 was a disaster and dry as a bone, it was all around us, but with this, it feels like you are in a wet pattern, but are getting robbed because you are in a microdry pattern, lol with nature dangling the meat in front of you over and over again. But at least we just have 8 more weeks or so, and then we will have something new.

    • Michael Garner August 6, 2017 at 2:52 pm - Reply

      Totally understand the comment on wert/dry – my comments are more about in June above average in temps thru the first half of June and now 69 days later August is the opposite. To me August should resemble something close to June as both months are in the “summer” and if anything August should have started even warmer with the jet stream at its weakest Strength for the time of year

      • Michael Garner August 6, 2017 at 3:28 pm - Reply

        Not 69 days later, 60 days. Ops guess I’m human after all

    • Kurt August 6, 2017 at 3:08 pm - Reply

      Agreed, frustrating that we don’t have any really exciting weather. Maybe the wet areas have only two months left and then we all really get dry and have a long term drought develop with the next lrc. What ever it is hope more uniform when it just feels like we’re dry in a wet pattern

  17. MikeL August 6, 2017 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    My storm total in SW Topeka was 1.08. Decent amount of moisture with no flooding.

  18. Patti August 6, 2017 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    5.4″ in NE Lee’s Summit. The radar estimate was pretty spot on for my house!

  19. Richard August 6, 2017 at 7:16 pm - Reply

    A lot of damage from the EF2 tornado that hit Tulsa last night.
    Storm chasers posted a bunch of photos

    https://www.facebook.com/severestudios2/posts/1808405965866714

  20. Tim August 6, 2017 at 9:28 pm - Reply

    5.25″ in lone jack for entire event

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