4:30 PM Update To: Flash Flood Watch

/4:30 PM Update To: Flash Flood Watch

4:30 PM Update To: Flash Flood Watch

4:30 PM update:

Here is the surface analysis, a seemingly lost art in this era of automation. I spent around a half hour analyzing the isobars and picking out where the front is located. The south side of the KC metro area is likely a target once again.  We will learn more in the next six hours.

Look at that temperature range. Is this August? Well, yes when you see all of those 100 degree readings, but the 63° over Overland Park is just crazy for August. We will have to see if we had a record low high, not just for the date, but for the entire month of August? I am not sure, if anyone wants to check.

Previous Entry Below:

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for a unique and rare August weekend of weather.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be in a zone through Sunday morning where several rounds of thunderstorms will occur, training over some locations, which will cause areas of flash flooding.  Who will see the heaviest rain and best chance for flash flooding? Let’s go through the data.

Here is the weather time line for Saturday.  This is a two part event.  The first part is today where we will see periods of rain and thunderstorms with a low flash flood threat, although a few locations could see some minor flooding.  Also, it looks like between 1 PM and 6 PM the showers and thunderstorms will be scattered, so some locations could have several dry hours this afternoon.  It is after 6 PM when the thunderstorms really ramp up and training echoes become an issue.  The thunderstorm threat winds down Sunday morning after 5-8 AM.

99

This is the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through Sunday morning.  The affected areas are similar to the ones from the last event July 26-27.  “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN” as it only takes six inches of flowing water to lift a car/SUV off the road.

1

There is also a slight risk of severe weather today and you can see Kansas and Missouri are the center of weather attention.

2

The main threats are damaging wind and hail and also, the best chance of severe weather will be southern Kansas closer to the highest heat and humidity.

3

Look at this set up for Saturday afternoon!  It is not a typical dog days of summer weather map.  Highs will be near 100° across southwest and south-central Kansas to Oklahoma.  Highs from Topeka to Kirksville will be in the 60s with a few locations in the 50s!  This sets up a zone, just north of the front, where thunderstorms will keep forming and tracking over the same locations.

4

As we look closer in, it is hard to believe this is August and on average the hottest time of year.

5

2 PM SATURDAY: The thunderstorms will become more scattered as the heat builds to the south and the energy in the atmosphere increases.

6

6 PM SATURDAY: This is the time when we will be monitoring Weather Track Radar like a hawk.  The thunderstorms will begin to increase and it looks like they will be concentrating in similar locations to the last event July 26-27.  The thunderstorm increase may wait until after 8 PM, so we will be watching this closely.

7

5 AM SUNDAY: The rounds of thunderstorms will be continuing.  After 5-8 AM the thunderstorms will be winding down and ending.  So, that is around 10-12 hours of repeating thunderstorms and the zone where the repeating sets up is where flash flooding will become a problem.  Below is our latest thinking of where the heavy rain zone will be located.

9-1

LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST: Right now it looks like 3″ to 6″ of rain will occur from Lawrence to the “K” southeast to Louisburg, KS and Peculiar, MO and points south. Some locations in this zone may see 6″ to 9″!  Now, this being said, this is not totally set in stone as the zone may shift 20-40 miles north or south.  If the below forecast is right, then the same areas that received the flooding July 26-27 will see it again.

9-2

Have a great weekend and stay safe and dry.

Jeff Penner

2017-08-06T10:16:52+00:00 August 5th, 2017|General|62 Comments

62 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete August 5, 2017 at 9:46 am - Reply

    I’m sleeping on my boat on Lake Perry. It’s been raining for hours. Gentle but moderate.

  2. REAL HUMEDUDE August 5, 2017 at 10:00 am - Reply

    Sorry Kurt, I see it decreasing up there and you barely got a shower. Disgusting I know all too well that feeling. I hope you guys get some later outta this deal

    • Kurt August 5, 2017 at 10:55 am - Reply

      I got .2 this morning. That’s the biggest rain in 3 weeks, actually only rain since my .7 in July. Still hoping for more just so I don’t have to water for a couple days. This may knock back the dust.

      I’m still thinking St Joseph can end the year below 20 inches of rainfall

  3. Snow Miser August 5, 2017 at 10:20 am - Reply

    The Wunderground forecast for the Lee’s Summit airport calls for 4.78 inches today.

  4. Waldo Weather August 5, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply

    I have picked up .62 so far this morning in Waldo. Can’t wait to see what this next wave of energy has for us tonight!

  5. Richard August 5, 2017 at 11:29 am - Reply

    Well this is depressing. 3rd weekend in a row with storms.
    Where do these match up 58-60 days ago in the lrc ? What cycle are we in

    • Kurt August 5, 2017 at 11:33 am - Reply

      Richard we haven’t had storms up here in 3 weeks, I know it’s too much in some areas but drought or dryness is much worse than rain, in my opinion

      Remember seasonal differences and it’s dry up here this afternoon

    • sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 12:43 pm - Reply

      I’m convinced the CPH or LRC isn’t very useful for predicting local weather from cycle to cycle. True, there have been hits, but there have been plenty of misses as well. Too many other variables in play that affect local sensible weather on a daily basis that the LRC can not account for. I know that’s not a popular view on this site, so perhaps I will stay on the 41 blog so as not to offend all the LRC believers here, which I certainly am not.

      • MMike August 5, 2017 at 1:37 pm - Reply

        Seds,

        No! Stay here. You’re fine.

        In the past, you were an excellent person that brought facts and always delivered your argument with respect. You aren’t like a few others on here that cry everyday or purposely try to point out every single miss that this team has. ( not many though)

        You know I have all kinds of things you and I can go over. You can ask Gary himself, I ask the same questions you do, have the same concerns you do. BUT, on the other end there have been many many forecasts that have been amazing! So, how does he do it. There has to be something that’s making his forecasts better then others in the short range and the long range.

        Let’s start with the winter forecast from last Nov.

        Called for much of the nation to be above average on temps, record breaking highs at times, low snowfall and rain fall totals. Most of the nation had a snow drought. His forecast was far different then the other 7 forecasters that I tracked. Most of them didn’t even come close to his prediction.

        Last Wednesday afternoon, he was the only one locally and nationally to forecast the flooding in KC. Weather channel, NWS and other local KC stations totally blew it. That was a HUGE risk to predict flooding and it happened.

        I disagree for all the hits there are misses in his forecasting method.

        I’ll have to post examples on other post…this one is getting long.

      • RobertCali August 5, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

        You’re not the only one with this viewpoint, Seds. After all, early June and early April — 1 and 2 ‘cycles’ ago compared to this weekend — were dry and warm. Not cold and wet.

        • MMike August 5, 2017 at 2:39 pm - Reply

          Robert,

          Early April was cool and wet also.. not warm and dry.

          June, turned cool the first week, however, we were dry.

        • Gary August 5, 2017 at 2:40 pm - Reply

          The discussion is always open. This cool period is right on schedule as I laid out the other day. The rain event, certainly this one was not forecast, but we are not perfect. Can you use the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis to make accurate forecasts down to a series of dates. Absolutely as we have shared with you here time after time. Can you get down to a certain date? Absolutely, but that is stretching just a bit as we are often a day off or two, but the events happen. We accurately predicted the Super Bowl forecast for the outside East Rutherford date on February 2, 2014 28 days ahead of time. I waited until 28 days before, even though we knew 55 days before because I wanted to verify the cycle length. That was a huge success. Since then we have had dozens of others just like it down to a date. And, dozens more a day or two off. And, then there are those we miss on. How accurate is this? Good question, but it can be done, it is being done, and we have gotten better and better at it.

          Here we are having a big rain event. And, we do used our CPH (LRC) in the shortest of ranges too. This one I didn’t expect or forecast. But, the ingredients were there. The cool part of the forecast is right on schedule. The rain part, not so good on the long range, but excellent on our shorter range forecasts.

          We are open for debate. Our peer review paper is being submitted this year. We will continue this discussion for years to come. I am looking forward to sharing with you and for debating with all of you. Now, let’s enjoy this crazy August storm set up that is targeting the KC region only. Crazy! It is actually pretty dry all around our local region.

          Gary

          • sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 8:32 pm - Reply

            I am glad to hear about the paper, Gary. I hope you get it published and look forward to hearing what the local mets think about it at a future AMS meeting. I’m not qualified to evaluate the nuts and bolts of your theory, unfortunately. I can only comment based on my observations of its merits. Even better would be if you presented your paper to the local AMS chapter in a scientific, rather than business-oriented way. IMHO

            • RobertCali August 5, 2017 at 8:50 pm - Reply

              If he wants *scientific* recognition, he’ll need to submit to a journal that requires peer review, rather than business-angle fluffing.

              I hope it’s being presented to a peer-reviewed scientific journal (i.e., the benchmark journal for topics like forecast theories is the AMS journal ‘Weather and Forecasting’ — https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/journals/weather-and-forecasting/) rather than a business-based item like a broadcasting publication.

        • Kurt August 5, 2017 at 2:45 pm - Reply

          It’s perfectly fine to be critical and differ in opinion. Yes there are certain times accuracy is less, but he was really good at forecasting the improvement in drought out west and a developing drought in the plains

          If the KC metro had what we have just a county north then his forecast would be about perfect except for the temps

          Doesn’t feel like rain up here this afternoon very pleasant and partly sunny, Gary was right about dry weather in the region, just not in the most populated areas

  6. sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 12:39 pm - Reply

    I agree with the latest analysis showing the heaviest rain south of my location. I was convinced of this when I saw where the heaviest storm activity lined up this morning. Have received 0.40″ of rain from this AM’s activity, w/ another cell moving into my location now.

  7. Rockdoc August 5, 2017 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    Holy snikies! It was just thundering here in south Prairie Village. The cats are bummed out because of the rain. They are stuck inside.

    • Joe August 5, 2017 at 3:46 pm - Reply

      Cats should be stuck inside or on a leash, just like dogs.:D

  8. Kurt August 5, 2017 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    Sun has been peeking out here since noon, some thunder south of here. Hope I can get some more rain out of this. Would be amazing to see an entire inch of rain from one event. That’d be the first time since late June

  9. Joshua August 5, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Gary, is 4-6″ of rain still realistic for us in the southern Metro?

  10. Adam August 5, 2017 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    From what I’ve read here and on the NWS site the second round tonight will be based on where the front to our sw lifts to and stalls and the nocturnal jet. I’ve read the first round was just that the first round.

    • Gary August 5, 2017 at 4:36 pm - Reply

      I am adding the front to Jeff’s blog. Look at my surface analysis I just spent 30 minutes on.

      Gary

  11. Craig August 5, 2017 at 3:35 pm - Reply
  12. Kurt August 5, 2017 at 4:09 pm - Reply

    Helpful that I’ll be watering again tomorrow? How can the same area be missed repeatedly. I thought I was be conservative, but if we can’t get a decent rain from this we really will be in a drought up here

  13. Weatherby Tom August 5, 2017 at 5:26 pm - Reply

    I have had thunderstorm after thunderstorm all day, heaviest rain occurring right now, crazy lightning. Measured over an inch already with much more to come by daybreak! Might need to call Noah🤣

  14. Tim August 5, 2017 at 5:45 pm - Reply

    Just got back home here in Lone Jack– rain gauge shows about 2inches already by 5:45pm!

  15. Weatherby Tom August 5, 2017 at 6:17 pm - Reply

    I think Weatherby Lake may be the epicenter of this rain event (at least the day part) 1.6″ in the rain gauge…and counting.

  16. Blue Flash August 5, 2017 at 6:19 pm - Reply

    Gary, the 65 degree apparent high today will be a new record cool high for the date, previous record was 67 set in 1993. However, it will not be a record for the entire month. There are a couple of days that only reached 63 in August. Also there was a 64 on August 3, 1915 that appears to beat out today for the coolest day after the peak of summer.

    • Dakota August 5, 2017 at 10:01 pm - Reply

      You beat me to it! I posted the same info below not knowing this was in the thread already.

  17. Blue Flash August 5, 2017 at 6:22 pm - Reply

    By the way, our low of 57 this morning barely missed matching the record low of 56 set way back in 1894!

  18. Blue Flash August 5, 2017 at 6:27 pm - Reply

    Sorry, there was a 55 in 1994 that I didn’t get posted in my book….

  19. Rockdoc August 5, 2017 at 6:31 pm - Reply

    Looks like St Joe area finally received some rain. Real Humedude should also be in the action, maybe filling up part of his pit! If anyone is going out tonight, be mindful of 103rd and Wornell area as well as Mill Street and Westport Road. Mill Street also floods near Embassy Suites.

    It is so chilly outside that I may end up turning on the furnace briefly just too warm up apartment and dry out some of the humidity later tonight! Crazy for August for sure 🙄

    • Gary August 5, 2017 at 6:41 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc,

      It is, as usual, fascinating to watch these developments. There is an area of thunderstorms to the northeast, and an area to the southwest. Is there a scenario where KC is actually in the spot where nothing happens tonight? We will know in three or four hours. Let’s see if there is any development between these two active regions? Now, some new cells just showed up north of Topeka, let’see if that intensifies, as if it does KC is still a target!

      Gary

      • Richard August 5, 2017 at 7:04 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Maybe nothing happens tonight ? that statement does not jive with your surface analysis that you added at 4:30 ….
        So, really, what are your thoughts now.
        Was it a mistake for them to cancel the game ? Isn’t kshb the official forecaster for the Royals ?

        • Blue Flash August 5, 2017 at 7:47 pm - Reply

          Sheesh…

  20. Anonymous August 5, 2017 at 6:51 pm - Reply

    N Blue Springs showing 2.20 inches of rain as of 6:15

  21. Mr. Pete August 5, 2017 at 6:52 pm - Reply

    Looks like metro is done with the rain….

    • RobertCali August 5, 2017 at 7:27 pm - Reply

      lol

    • Joe August 5, 2017 at 8:14 pm - Reply

      A little premature Pete, it seems the radar has started filling in and the rain is going to train over us, I wished we could push this up to Kurt 😀

  22. REAL HUMEDUDE August 5, 2017 at 7:03 pm - Reply

    Capt obvious here but looks like NORTH side of metro is the main target of training cells. Is that still tied to disturbance #1? The Nocturnal LLJ isn’t supposed to crank up until 9pm or later, maybe that’s when we see the big show in Metro and points south

  23. LP August 5, 2017 at 7:12 pm - Reply

    Plus, it looks like those cells north of Topeka are rapidly intensifying.

  24. Blue Flash August 5, 2017 at 7:58 pm - Reply

    Definition: training – In meteorology, training denotes repeated areas of rain, typically associated with thunderstorms, that move over the same region in a relatively short period of time.

    See also, radar image https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/mo/kansas-city/eax/?region=jef

  25. Mr. Pete August 5, 2017 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    I was wrong. Radar is lighting up!!

  26. sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    I hate being wrong…north side getting deluged with rain. About 2 inches so far. South side, your turn is coming though. I would be surprised if we get through this event without loss of life locally.

  27. sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    On TOP radar you can really see the definition of the wave in the radar echoes. Quite a train of rain still heading into KC.

  28. REAL HUMEDUDE August 5, 2017 at 8:36 pm - Reply

    You can see when the Low Lwvel.Jwt kicked in about 8pm…..really cranking up around metro but I’m not sure this will ever make it down to the farm. The big area to the west will sink too far south for me and this will stay too far north. Oh well, I’ll probably get enough to really water the beans but not enough to run off. might push down my way who knows?

  29. sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 8:39 pm - Reply

    The radar echoes are beginning to weaken some. I wonder if the storm activity farther south is beginning to weaken the LLJ into our area?

  30. Paul August 5, 2017 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Over 2.75 inches so far here in N Blue Springs

  31. Paul August 5, 2017 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    Now up to 4.25 inches in N Blue Springs

  32. Snow Miser August 5, 2017 at 9:42 pm - Reply

    Can this one be believed?
    https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMOBLUES27
    11.8 inches?????

    All the other stations around it show from 3 to 4+ inches.

  33. f00dl3 August 5, 2017 at 9:56 pm - Reply

    3″ so far near Old Town Lenexa

  34. Dakota August 5, 2017 at 9:59 pm - Reply

    Jeff and Gary,

    The record cold high for 8/5 is 67 degrees in 1993. The monthly record cold high for August in Kansas City is 63 degrees on 8/26 1992. Not sure what our official high was, but it’ll be close!

  35. Nick August 5, 2017 at 10:50 pm - Reply

    Well in the north end of St. Joe, we had two light events that wet the pavement, then a ten minute downpowr at about 6:30 pm, for a total of… .13 at Rosecrannes, KC is flooded and we are calm again, well just 2 months and this LRC will be history 😀 the cool air is nice though 🙂

  36. ClassyCat August 5, 2017 at 11:00 pm - Reply

    143rd and Nieman (between Switzer and quivira) .9 this morning and I’m trying to read the rain gauge from inside and appears to be about 3 inches since I dumped this mornings out. So, my guess is 3.9 until I can get a more accurate reading in the morning. I didn’t think Overland Park was going to get it as bad this time as the worst looked north and east of here, but the heaviest definitely sunk south right over Johnson county kansas it looks like. At least the batch tonight.

  37. Mr. Pete August 6, 2017 at 1:22 am - Reply

    Just got home from a close friends house in Leawood tonight. Basement flooded fast.

  38. Kurt August 6, 2017 at 2:19 am - Reply

    What is this curse? Why can’t the rains ever get to St Joseph? Had some showed that got right near me and some rains. A good shower but not much of a dent in our deficit. .35 is all I could manage today. Now back to a 6.5 inch deficit and 16.4 inches year to date.

    This really sucks missing all the rain that is so close every time. Corn really looks bad up hear as well as yards

    So ready for a new lrc that hopefully is more fair on the rainfall rather it be a drought area wide, normal or wet

  39. f00dl3 August 6, 2017 at 6:50 am - Reply

    5.15″ of rain near Old Town Lenexa during the last 24 hours.

    19.17″ of rainfall since July 1st.

    mysql> select Date, Precip from RainGauge where Date LIKE (‘2017-07%’) OR Date LIKE (‘2017-08-%’);
    +————+——–+
    | Date | Precip |
    +————+——–+
    | 2017-07-04 | 1.58 |
    | 2017-07-14 | 2.90 |
    | 2017-07-23 | 2.50 |
    | 2017-07-26 | 1.14 |
    | 2017-07-27 | 5.90 |
    | 2017-08-05 | 2.95 |
    | 2017-08-06 | 2.20 |
    +————+——–+

    mysql> select sum(Precip) from RainGauge where Date LIKE (‘%2017-07%’) OR Date LIKE (‘2017-08-%’);
    +————-+
    | sum(Precip) |
    +————-+
    | 19.17 |
    +————-+

  40. Blue Flash August 6, 2017 at 7:15 am - Reply

    4.4″ in W. Central Independence.

  41. Kurt August 6, 2017 at 7:43 am - Reply

    That 4.14 in one event is about what we’ve had around St Joseph in the last 60 days. We’re 50 percent of normal in the last 60 days and 33 percent of normal in July

    That’s our biggest weather story up here. Not sure what that will do to crops and if farmers will be impacted.

    Really not fair to be missed like that so often

    • sedsinkc August 6, 2017 at 11:56 am - Reply

      It seems to often happens in summer where a favored area gets hammered several times by training thunderstorms while other areas are left wanting for rain. There have been past summers where KC has been repeatedly missed, while some area in northern Missouri or southern Kansas has been deluged with rain. In 2017 it’s Kansas City’s turn to be in the rainfall sweet spot.

  42. Randy Keller August 6, 2017 at 8:12 am - Reply

    thanks for everything Gary! This site is incredible, learning more and more all the time

    GO SOONERS

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