4:30 PM update:
Here is the surface analysis, a seemingly lost art in this era of automation. I spent around a half hour analyzing the isobars and picking out where the front is located. The south side of the KC metro area is likely a target once again. We will learn more in the next six hours.
Look at that temperature range. Is this August? Well, yes when you see all of those 100 degree readings, but the 63° over Overland Park is just crazy for August. We will have to see if we had a record low high, not just for the date, but for the entire month of August? I am not sure, if anyone wants to check.
Previous Entry Below:
Good Saturday bloggers,
We are in for a unique and rare August weekend of weather. Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be in a zone through Sunday morning where several rounds of thunderstorms will occur, training over some locations, which will cause areas of flash flooding. Who will see the heaviest rain and best chance for flash flooding? Let’s go through the data.
Here is the weather time line for Saturday. This is a two part event. The first part is today where we will see periods of rain and thunderstorms with a low flash flood threat, although a few locations could see some minor flooding. Also, it looks like between 1 PM and 6 PM the showers and thunderstorms will be scattered, so some locations could have several dry hours this afternoon. It is after 6 PM when the thunderstorms really ramp up and training echoes become an issue. The thunderstorm threat winds down Sunday morning after 5-8 AM.
This is the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through Sunday morning. The affected areas are similar to the ones from the last event July 26-27. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN” as it only takes six inches of flowing water to lift a car/SUV off the road.
There is also a slight risk of severe weather today and you can see Kansas and Missouri are the center of weather attention.
The main threats are damaging wind and hail and also, the best chance of severe weather will be southern Kansas closer to the highest heat and humidity.
Look at this set up for Saturday afternoon! It is not a typical dog days of summer weather map. Highs will be near 100° across southwest and south-central Kansas to Oklahoma. Highs from Topeka to Kirksville will be in the 60s with a few locations in the 50s! This sets up a zone, just north of the front, where thunderstorms will keep forming and tracking over the same locations.
As we look closer in, it is hard to believe this is August and on average the hottest time of year.
2 PM SATURDAY: The thunderstorms will become more scattered as the heat builds to the south and the energy in the atmosphere increases.
6 PM SATURDAY: This is the time when we will be monitoring Weather Track Radar like a hawk. The thunderstorms will begin to increase and it looks like they will be concentrating in similar locations to the last event July 26-27. The thunderstorm increase may wait until after 8 PM, so we will be watching this closely.
5 AM SUNDAY: The rounds of thunderstorms will be continuing. After 5-8 AM the thunderstorms will be winding down and ending. So, that is around 10-12 hours of repeating thunderstorms and the zone where the repeating sets up is where flash flooding will become a problem. Below is our latest thinking of where the heavy rain zone will be located.
LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST: Right now it looks like 3″ to 6″ of rain will occur from Lawrence to the “K” southeast to Louisburg, KS and Peculiar, MO and points south. Some locations in this zone may see 6″ to 9″! Now, this being said, this is not totally set in stone as the zone may shift 20-40 miles north or south. If the below forecast is right, then the same areas that received the flooding July 26-27 will see it again.
Have a great weekend and stay safe and dry.