A Fascinating Summer Weekend Set-Up

/A Fascinating Summer Weekend Set-Up

A Fascinating Summer Weekend Set-Up

Good morning bloggers,

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We did tie the record low in Kansas City this morning. The low dipped to 52° around 6 AM, right before sunrise.  Here is Sunny the Weather Dog getting the paper so we can read about the Kansas City Royals latest victory!  The weather for tonights game at Kauffman Stadium here in Kansas City will be spectacular.  The weather for Saturday nights game is somewhat questionable and depends on how the rainfall pattern sets up over the weekend.  Take a look at the developing surface scenario for Saturday:

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There will be a summer stationary front setting up tonight and Saturday morning.  This will be one of the big ingredients to monitor closely this weekend.  Someone at work asked me a good question yesterday.  “Is this more like October or May?”. My answer, “No, this is more like a rare August set up. It is really not like fall or spring at all, just a summer pattern that is going to be fascinating to watch evolve tonight and Saturday”.  It will likely approach 100 degrees near or southwest of Wichita, KS. The pattern will become favorable for a zone of heavy rain and thunderstorms and that zone just happens to be targeting the Kansas City viewing area:

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Here is the raw model output from two of them, the NAM you see above, and the GFS that came out early this morning:

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Both of these forecasts have a nearly 12″ bulls eye. Yes, that yellowish orange area is 12″ of rain. One model has it north and east of KC, and the other model has it south and west of KC. I should be able to pick out the most likely location by tonight at 10 PM, and I will shoot for earlier, so watch our newscasts today.  Where it is raining most of the day it will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Fascinating!

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Sunny and nearly perfect. High:  78°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds late. Low: 58°
  • Saturday:  A 100% chance of rain.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH!  Thunderstorms are possible with rainfall amounts from 1″ to over 5″ possible.
  • Saturday Night:  Rain with a few thunderstorms likely.  The Royals game is in jeopardy, but we just have to see how it is setting up. It won’t for certain be cancelled.
  • Sunday: Rain ending with lingering showers possible. High:  75°

Have a great Friday and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share this weather experience in a fun and educational way!

Gary

2017-08-05T10:47:02+00:00 August 4th, 2017|General|31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel August 4, 2017 at 7:52 am - Reply

    Gary,
    We had 52 degrees also in Maryville. Absolutely gorgeous day! Have a safe and great weekend!
    Michael

  2. Snowflake August 4, 2017 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Gary –

    Did we see heavy rains in the early June and early April cycles — akin to what we’re going to see tomorrow?

    • Gary August 4, 2017 at 9:00 am - Reply

      In the April and June parts of this cycling pattern we had near record cold and dry. Yep, it was dry. The August version just happens to be setting up for our heavy rain event. As shown a couple of days ago in the blog, it was in the 30s in the April part of this pattern. It was in the 50s for lows in the June part of this pattern. And, we dropped to a record low this morning. That alone is incredible! In this summer, August twist to the set up we just happen to be in the perfect spot for this potential heavy rain event. The upper level flow is quite similar. This is another great example how you will get seasonal differences.

      Gary

      • Michael Garner August 4, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

        But beginning of June was still above average, I don’t just look at the lows. The beginning of June was above average except for a couple days and those only because the lows were “low”. The first half of June was above average as a whole according to KCI stats. This version in August is not just have “low” temps for lows but also the “highs” are way below average. Unless I am way off?

        • Richard August 4, 2017 at 9:55 am - Reply

          Michael
          You are right

        • sedsinkc August 5, 2017 at 9:18 am - Reply

          You are highlighting one of the things I find most flawed about trying to use the “CPH” or LRC or whatever to make long distance local forecasts. To me, it’s a waste of time, esp. when you give yourself 5 or 6 days of “wiggle room” for a supposed rain event, snow event, or cold/hot event. Sorry Gary, but that’s how I feel about the utility of your hypothesis.

  3. JasonAtt August 4, 2017 at 8:59 am - Reply

    There are a lot of ingredients to make a soup. Change a couple and you have an entirely different soup. These are seasoning differences.

    There are seasonal differences too. It wasn’t 100 degrees in Wichita in April.

    • Gary August 4, 2017 at 9:01 am - Reply

      Jason,

      We were answering at the same time. Good analogy.

      Gary

    • Michael Garner August 4, 2017 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Correct but the beginning of June was no where near below average in temps, and no rain. The 1 weather app also showed temps would go from below average to above average with the potential to b rather hot by week end and rain early in the week (current week we are about to finish). And next week it says it will be hot and humid week and temperatures will run near to above average. As of now that forecast looks way off as well. Yes I know perfection can not be obtained in predicting future weather I’m pointing this out more or less to ask Gary if he ever changes the weekly forecast made by the 1weather app when it appears that it will be way off. Again next week isn’t here yet and could be right but I have not seen any forecast showing next week hot and humid unless by next weekend it turns that way but the whole week in general looks way below average, at least for my zip code 66048.

      • Michael Garner August 4, 2017 at 9:13 am - Reply

        I should add that the forecast on the 1weather app did at least say this week would start out below normal and that happened just not the heat by weeks end, if anything it got even cooler then compared to how the week started

      • Gary August 4, 2017 at 9:18 am - Reply

        I just checked, and those forecasts should have been updated which would reflect this summer twist. We rarely change the forecasts as they are most likely going to be accurate, but there are a few clunkers.

        Gary

  4. Bill in Lawrence August 4, 2017 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy beautiful Friday morning to you sir.

    Not much time but was just thinking of if this were winter and you were a met trying to make a snowfall forecast in Pittsburg Kansas and seeing the differences between the NAM and GFS just 24 hours out. To me, this is just a perfect example of the difficulties meteorologists deal with on a daily basis. It is a great example to show how they deserve some slack on the forecast. Imagine this set up in winter; not only are you dealing with differences in where the heaviest band will be-an almost 200 mile difference by the way-but think of the temperature profiles. Even with just rain this is going to be a tough forecast to fully nail down. Good luck to you Gary!!!

    For my little neck of the woods I’ll go with between .75 and 1 inch. That is about what these bigger events have been giving me since late April. I would very much like an event that would run a little bit, but I will take .75 in early August and say thank you very much LRC 2016-2017. For me, this LRC has been just fine. I have been lucky to have just enough rain and have now gone almost 20 days this summer with no AC. Yes-I have been lucky and blessed this summer. Those few 3 star players have done just enough to keep the 5 star player ridge from dominating the entire summer.

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary August 4, 2017 at 9:25 am - Reply

      Thank you for your input Bill. What is amazing, even on the latest drought monitor, there is a growing drought all around us. The target for the heavy rains the past six weeks have been either northern Missouri in a rather thin stretch from Maryville to northwest of Chillicothe, or the KC metro area, especially the south side. The latest Nam is targeting this farther south area again. I will do my best to forecast rainfall amounts tonight on the air.

      Yes, if this was snow, can you imagine. We would be forecasting 0 to 20 inches in our viewing area, and it would likely happen where some spots get nothing and others get 20 inches of snow. But, we are forecasting rainfall amounts instead. It is just as challenging, but more forgiving from all of you. If we forecast an inch of rain and 5 inches fall most will say, will it rained. But, if we forecasted 1″ of snow and 15″ fell, then the forecaster would be in deep trouble.

  5. REAL HUMEDUDE August 4, 2017 at 9:32 am - Reply

    Bring it, been waiting on a big rain for several weeks now. Had a couple tide-me-over type rains but need a big one to make up the nearly 4′ my pit has fallen. Can both I and Kurt get a big rain please?

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE August 4, 2017 at 9:37 am - Reply

    Gary – what’s your thoughts on latest GFS illustrating a couple of potent Tropical systems, One in the gulf and another threatening the east coast by late next week. One run had it slamming FL, now its slamming the Virginia Beach Area in latest runs…….do they fit the pattern or do you think they are erroneous?

  7. Tim August 4, 2017 at 10:15 am - Reply

    I would think for the most part tropical systems in the Atlantic should have nothing to do with the pattern here– except for instances of irony such as when a tropical system develops from a lingering low pressure system on an existing old front near the US coast (subtropical to tropical)– or a peristent low that drifted into the Atlantic (still subtropical to tropical). Most of the systems form across the ITCZ as waves of Low Pressure heading West off the west coast of Africa– originating from a different geographical weather pattern– especially now as we begin to head toward Cape Verde Season that doesn’t exist during the rest of the year. Again just my thoughts/opinion. I would be interested to see what Gary has to say if there is a tie in between waves of low pressure that are rooted from Africa that eventually affect the US and how it could be part of an overall pattern during the rest of the year.

    • Snowflake August 4, 2017 at 10:25 am - Reply

      But gary said the tropical systems do cycle with the rest of his pattern and that the storm that came up through Louisiana in June is going to return 58 days later right around the time of the eclipse!

      • Tim August 4, 2017 at 10:56 am - Reply

        Well that is my point. Tropical storm Cindy formed associated with a surface trough that developed Low Pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula– not in the Cape Verde area as a wave of Low Pressure coming off the coast of Africa. Cindy formed in the main area for Tropical Systems in June. As we head into August through October– these systems begin to originate further out into the Atlantic all the way to the Cape Verde Island off the Coast of Africa. If we have a tropical storm hit the coast on eclipse– and the tropical wave originated from the coast ofAfrica, I’m sorry that is not the same if it developed from surface trough near the Yucatan — that would be crazy, but a mere coincidence.

    • Gary August 4, 2017 at 11:06 am - Reply

      Tim,

      We have been tracking this for around a dozen years now. The global circulation is all tied together. The Cycling Pattern hypothesis that describes the westerly belt circulation and regular cyclicality has been shown to have influences from the Tropical and Polar easterlies. When we predict the potential for a tropical storm, we are utilizing our knowledge of the cycling pattern. There are regions where tropical systems are more likely to form within each years pattern. I am not going to disagree with your assessment of a tropical system moving west from Africa to the east coast of the USA, and how that would likely not be related to how Tropical Storm Cindy formed and tracked. My point would be that there would likely be a system similar to Cindy in the Gulf and not associated with what happened farther east over the Atlantic, if that makes sense. Now, if the system over the Atlantic tracks way south and then comes into the Gulf and ends ups in a similar spot that Cindy formed, then I would make that argument. Makes sense?

      Gary

      • Tim August 4, 2017 at 1:31 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary! It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I don’t think I have really ever scrutinized the details of the tropical system in relation to the LRC in the past. It was just interesting upon deeper thought, since I usually follow the tropical systems pretty closely.

  8. Craig August 4, 2017 at 11:15 am - Reply

    Rather remarkable how, in one model run span of just 6 hours, the GFS has shifted the axis of heavy rain almost 200 miles to the SW.
    Good luck with your forecast, Gary. This one’s a toughy.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017080412&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=072

  9. Eric August 4, 2017 at 11:19 am - Reply

    Gary,

    What are your thoughts on the timing of the rain tomorrow morning? Still looking like the 7am-9am start time? I realllllllyyyyy don’t want to run in the rain but will if needed haha shoot I may get up at 4am and get the long run in if that gives me a rain free run. Thanks for all you do Gary! I love being able to have this platform to ask these type of questions!

  10. Kurt August 4, 2017 at 11:25 am - Reply

    I am not surprised with that shift, based on the rainfall patterns, there will be a sharp cutoff and I’ll probably still be dry up here in st Joseph. Will be closing in on a 7 inch year to date rainfall deficit next week, I think that abnormally dry lol

  11. KS Jones August 4, 2017 at 2:34 pm - Reply

    At 6:15 AM, the air temperature was 48° at the Marysville airport. Then it warmed up to 50° before dropping to 48° again at 6:55. The dew points were also 48° in both cases.
    link:
    http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMYZ.html

  12. Richard August 4, 2017 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    Gary
    On kshb you just now showed heavy rain possible at 10 a.m. tomorrow ?
    Thought it was not coming in until later in the day

    • Richard August 4, 2017 at 4:14 pm - Reply

      Just thought most of the day would be dry
      Also the heavy rain in morning looked to be in metro including JoCo.
      Rats

    • Gary August 4, 2017 at 6:11 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      I have always had the timing earlier. It still could come in a bit later, but usually when you are going to be in it, it starts earlier.

      Gary

      • Richard August 4, 2017 at 6:43 pm - Reply

        Gary
        This morning I was going by the powercast Sat 5 p.m. map above, and no mention of morning rain in the blog, before I saw you at 4p.m.
        Sorry, but how are you saying you have always had the timing earlier ?

        Usually when you are going to be in it, it starts earlier. Huh ?

        No matter now. It is what it is.

        • Gary August 4, 2017 at 9:27 pm - Reply

          Not sure what you are talking about, but this is the forecast from this mornings blog: Saturday: A 100% chance of rain. FLASH FLOOD WATCH! Thunderstorms are possible with rainfall amounts from 1″ to over 5″ possible.

        • Dave LS August 4, 2017 at 10:47 pm - Reply

          Not sure what channel you were watching but before I left for work this morning, power cast was showing as early as 6am west out towards Topeka and spreading in by 7-8am in the metro.

  13. Kurt August 4, 2017 at 5:09 pm - Reply

    At least you’re getting rain, we can’t get a drop up here, just dust and weeds, and a huge water bill to try and keep things alive

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