A Cold Front Is Moving Through

/A Cold Front Is Moving Through

A Cold Front Is Moving Through

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm.  The chance of rain is 40% near the frontal zone.  High:  80°-85°
  • Tonight:  Clearing with a near record low in the lower 50s. The record was set in 1974 at 52°
  • Friday: Gorgeous Day. Highs in the 70s
  • Saturday-Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. Heavy rain is likely in some areas.

We are definitely in a rather fascinating weather pattern. This summer has been producing weather events that have been difficult to forecast and I feel our teams at KSHB and Weather2020 have been doing an outstanding job at forecasting most of the significant events.  Some of them got stronger than we anticipated, like two Saturday nights ago when I was at Big Bear Lake in California. That event caused all of the tree damage and power outages that lasted for up to five days. Then, just as the power was seemingly back to 100% we had last weeks flooding event, one week ago this morning. Then, we had some fantastic weather, the past few days, and now what? This weekend has another big weather forecast challenge for temperatures and rainfall.

The stage is beginning to be set as this cold front sweeps across the plains and Great Lakes today:

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Much cooler air, rather rare for early August, but not too unusual for late August.  Well, it isn’t late August, so this is really a strong summer cold front.  Some record lows are possible by Friday morning.

7 AM Friday Surface Forecast Map:

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The front moving through today will stall over Texas.  A series of waves aloft will approach from the west and northwest. A heavy rain event is likely across areas near and north of this frontal system. The front will begin drifting northward and we are monitoring the weekend forecast closely.  Right now it appears there is a very good chance of rain and thunderstorms across large portions of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  Where will it line up?

Upper Level Flow Saturday:

eta48hr_500_vrt

This part of the pattern has cycled through five times already. We are now in the sixth cycle of this years pattern.  We went back and found this part of the pattern in each cycle. The August version will have its own unique results, however. The conditions are there for a heavy rain event, and for the trapping of some cooler air.  This combination is rare for August, but still part of this pattern. Remember, a unique pattern sets up each fall and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer before the new pattern sets up. This is a unique pattern that has only happened this year.  We will go deeper into this analysis on our weathercasts tonight on NBC Kansas City, 41 Action News.

Have a great day!

Gary

2017-08-04T10:54:55+00:00 August 3rd, 2017|General|17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Snow Miser August 3, 2017 at 10:23 am - Reply

    At the rate we’re going we’re gonna get snow in September. :-\

  2. Mr. Pete August 3, 2017 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Kind of looks like a stormy Saturday and Sunday here in KC.

  3. Michael Garner August 3, 2017 at 11:02 am - Reply

    So for the most part June 5-17 was above average but now 60 days later cooler than average and maybe wet first half of August? I know every cycle is different but the same pattern but this to be way different, but then again I am not a professional!! Thank you Gary for the effort

  4. Eric August 3, 2017 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    So with the rain on Saturday any chance it’ll hold off during the morning hours say between 6am to 11am? I want to get a long run in and hope its not in the rain!

    • Gary August 3, 2017 at 4:03 pm - Reply

      There is a chance, but right now it appears it moves in around 7 to 9 AM.

      Gary

      • Jess August 3, 2017 at 5:27 pm - Reply

        Do you think the Royals game will be rained out Saturday?

        • Gary August 3, 2017 at 8:03 pm - Reply

          I do not know yet. We just have to see how this looks as Saturday approaches.

          Gary

  5. Tim August 3, 2017 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Thought this was a nice little link for the Eclipse later this month. You can see exactly how long it will be at your exact location:
    http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/TSE_2017_GoogleMapFull.html?Lat=39.09969&Lng=-94.32673&Zoom=10&LC=1

    • blue flash August 3, 2017 at 1:43 pm - Reply

      Thanks Tim, I have been looking for something like that!

  6. REAL HUMEDUDE August 3, 2017 at 2:26 pm - Reply

    Well I am disgusted, thought the farm was in prime spot to get a storm this afternoon but it all went south and pounded Nevada and not a drop at the farm. I want my pit filled back up! Bring me 3″ this weekend and I won’t complain the rest of the year, that will lock in my corn and beans with plus harvests. Is the weekend setup still a compete guess as to where the storms set up? Who looks the most likely target?

    • Kurt August 3, 2017 at 3:14 pm - Reply

      Real, I can sympathize, but buddy you could not receive any more rain the rest of this calendar year and be in better shape that NE KS and NW Missouri that has missed rains for the last 2.5 months. There are other areas out by KS Jones and Steven and up into Iowa that need this weekends rain event more. I just want a decent rain on the plants, trees and grass at this point we need moisture. Surprised we aren’t abnormally dry yet per the drought monitor as we are now down over 6 inches year to date and that’s mainly from the last 6 weeks.

      • REAL HUMEDUDE August 3, 2017 at 3:45 pm - Reply

        Kurt…..I checked out the NWS precipitation product and went out 90 days. I’ve had about 20″, you’ve had about 12″. That’s a big difference, KC has had 25″+. Not a terrible drought up there, but rather that annoying dry pattern where you get just enough to not be a drought but very dry.

  7. Kurt August 3, 2017 at 4:43 pm - Reply

    I hope so too, need to make a dent in our deficit. Still looks like the bullseye will be south of here, same song different verse.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 3, 2017 at 5:25 pm - Reply

      Kirt- Nam absolutely slams you , 3-5″. Per NAM, I get almost nothing!
      Let’s hope GFS comes it with a wet solution for everyone as the beans need it everywhere right now going into flowering almost everywhere except the latest of the beans

  8. Nick August 4, 2017 at 12:12 am - Reply

    Maybe not getting the rain is the curse of the eclipse here in St. Joe, lol but I’m hoping cycle 6 will be better for us, (at least a bit) but if not, just 9 more weeks or so and this pattern will be like the dust in the breeze it produced in St. Joe. 🙂

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