Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm.  The chance of rain is 40% near the frontal zone.  High:  80°-85°
  • Tonight:  Clearing with a near record low in the lower 50s. The record was set in 1974 at 52°
  • Friday: Gorgeous Day. Highs in the 70s
  • Saturday-Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. Heavy rain is likely in some areas.

We are definitely in a rather fascinating weather pattern. This summer has been producing weather events that have been difficult to forecast and I feel our teams at KSHB and Weather2020 have been doing an outstanding job at forecasting most of the significant events.  Some of them got stronger than we anticipated, like two Saturday nights ago when I was at Big Bear Lake in California. That event caused all of the tree damage and power outages that lasted for up to five days. Then, just as the power was seemingly back to 100% we had last weeks flooding event, one week ago this morning. Then, we had some fantastic weather, the past few days, and now what? This weekend has another big weather forecast challenge for temperatures and rainfall.

The stage is beginning to be set as this cold front sweeps across the plains and Great Lakes today:

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Much cooler air, rather rare for early August, but not too unusual for late August.  Well, it isn’t late August, so this is really a strong summer cold front.  Some record lows are possible by Friday morning.

7 AM Friday Surface Forecast Map:

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The front moving through today will stall over Texas.  A series of waves aloft will approach from the west and northwest. A heavy rain event is likely across areas near and north of this frontal system. The front will begin drifting northward and we are monitoring the weekend forecast closely.  Right now it appears there is a very good chance of rain and thunderstorms across large portions of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  Where will it line up?

Upper Level Flow Saturday:

eta48hr_500_vrt

This part of the pattern has cycled through five times already. We are now in the sixth cycle of this years pattern.  We went back and found this part of the pattern in each cycle. The August version will have its own unique results, however. The conditions are there for a heavy rain event, and for the trapping of some cooler air.  This combination is rare for August, but still part of this pattern. Remember, a unique pattern sets up each fall and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer before the new pattern sets up. This is a unique pattern that has only happened this year.  We will go deeper into this analysis on our weathercasts tonight on NBC Kansas City, 41 Action News.

Have a great day!

Gary