The Month-Long August Forecast

/The Month-Long August Forecast

The Month-Long August Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

We will begin with a recap of July. Here in Kansas City the hottest temperature once again fell short of 100 degrees.  It did come rather close with two days reaching 98 degrees, and on these two days the humidity was just out of control. I am not sure that I have seen 98 degrees with 80 degree dew points in KC before, and it lead to the first of two huge thunderstorm events. The first one missed KCI Airport with only 0.04″. The second big thunderstorm event did strike the official recording station and 4.37″ fell on the night of the 26th with up to 8 inches of rain, mostly falling in 3 hours, over the southern KC metro area which lead to significant flash flooding.

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August is going to be another entertaining month for us weather enthusiasts.  How are the corn and soy bean crops doing for the farmers out there. Let us know.  Here in KC the corn just looks so healthy. I will try to take a picture of the one near my house with Sunny the Weather Dog in the next couple of days. The pattern continues to cycle according to my hypothesis.  Here is how the month lines up. We may be off a day here or there, but these month long forecasts have been coming in quite accurate.

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A strong summer cold front is developing and tracking across the northern plains. It will move into the Great Lakes and central plains on Thursday.  Here is a forecast valid at 4 PM tomorrow:

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The models have been showing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms near the trailing cold front across Kansas Thursday.  The more organized area of thunderstorms is forecast to be located and developing over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This is a rather strong cold front for early August, but not unheard of. This is not a fall cold front, and it is directly related to this part of the cycling pattern as I showed in yesterdays blog.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.  We continue to have a great weather discussion on the Weather2020 blog, so join in if you want, or comment here.

Gary

2017-08-03T09:43:17+00:00 August 2nd, 2017|General|16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Anonymous August 2, 2017 at 8:56 am - Reply

    I thought you said in parts of KC it did hit a hundred. Mabye you should just say while parts of KC hit 100, KCI didn’t quite make it?

  2. Michael Casteel August 2, 2017 at 8:58 am - Reply

    Gary, please bring us a snowy 2017-2018 weather pattern! My sleds need a work out!
    Michael

  3. REAL HUMEDUDE August 2, 2017 at 9:22 am - Reply

    My corn ears are filling out pretty nicely, although I picked 3 ears last weekend to examine and 2 of the 3 ears had big nasty corn bores eating up good bit of the ear. I hope we aren’t having a bad problem with them this year. Anybody else seen any? I want a big rain down here, is Sunday looking like a substantial event?

  4. Kurt August 2, 2017 at 10:58 am - Reply

    I’d like to know what farmers report in Buchanan county, from the looks of the corn, there are some fields I drive by that have withering corn, not sure how the ears developed with only 33% of average rain this summer. Beans that were early look great, but I don’t think they are blooming. The late beans are only a few inches tall in some fields.

    Of all those needing rain, I think my immediate area over into parts of northeast Kansas and up into south central Iowa need to rain worse than other areas

    • Steve August 2, 2017 at 11:22 am - Reply

      Kurt, Live SW of Hiawatha, Ks and received only 1.21″ of rain in July. The wind and Heat has a lot of the corn burnt up 1/3rd to 1/2 of the way. A lot of the farmers are chopping it for silage to get something out of it. Beans need a rain bad in the next 10 days.

  5. KS Jones August 2, 2017 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    Our total rainfall (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) from March through May was 5.26″ above normal, but our total rainfall for June & July was 3.93″ below normal.
    The air temperature hit it 100° on July 10th, and we had three more 100°+ days following that.
    Our soybeans (planted May 15th) look very good. The plants are still blooming, but the growth stage is mostly R3 (beginning pod) and a few (very few) are R4 (full pod).
    No bugs so far, but at this stage, it’s a crapshoot.
    As the yield-forecast has risen, soybean prices have fallen seriously.
    Some of the neighboring corn fields have been chopped for silage because the crop was at or below a break-even level, but the corn growing in the Blue River bottom-ground looks good.

  6. Troy August 2, 2017 at 1:00 pm - Reply

    In NW Republic County our crops look pretty decent. I think we have made the most of the 2 rain events we have had since June 1 and the cooler weather is helping. Corn should be average, beans are still up in the air but have potential. The irrigated crops are really benefiting from the cool down. Its really a year of have and have nots as 15 miles away there is corn that is firing and a county SW of us has some really poor looking corn and beans. I think it will be a year with a lot of variance in yield as rainfall has been spotty with heavy rains in one place and not much in another.

  7. Ben August 2, 2017 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Corn looks to have pollinated nicely in North Missouri. Most of it was finished before the extreme heat set in. Still need a couple rains to finish filling out the kernels. Beans really need a drink in North Missouri. Early beans are starting to set pods and take a lot of water at this stage. Hopefully we don’t have to wait till the 14th as some are predicting. I think bean yields will be hurt if we have to wait another 10-12 days for rain.

  8. Kurt August 2, 2017 at 3:30 pm - Reply

    Will be interesting to track the drought monitor over the next several weeks. I think they consider things like stream flow, subsoil moisture and also crop conditions along with total precipitation. While nothing near the 2012, appears that the dryness will impact corn and beans.

  9. Blue Flash August 2, 2017 at 5:31 pm - Reply

    The air smelled of smoke this morning, and the sky seems to have smoky appearance today. Are we experiencing any of the smoke from the wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia?

    • Snow Miser August 2, 2017 at 9:56 pm - Reply

      I noticed a little bit of that too. Smelled a bit of smoke this morning. Thought I also smelled a bit this afternoon, too.

  10. KS Jones August 2, 2017 at 6:01 pm - Reply

    We’ve had tall puffy clouds floating around here all afternoon, and about 10 minutes ago I began to hear thunder off to the northeast, so I checked the radar and saw a storm cell popped up about 20 miles east-northeast of here. It will probably not affect us, but maybe some of the other stuff drifting down from Nebraska will build and come this way.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nebraska/weather-radar?play=true

  11. Nick August 2, 2017 at 9:18 pm - Reply

    Yes the “milky” appearance to the sky today was due to smoke getting entrained in NW flow aloft, Im not sure about ground level though.

  12. Snowflake August 3, 2017 at 9:09 am - Reply

    A little shady to see the August forecast map got switched out in this post without a disclaimer — yesterday it didn’t show storms/rain for the weekend (5/6th) but it does now. 🙂

    But in any event, it is good to see the station catching on to the weekend system.

    It looks like quite a soaker with some more localized flooding potential for some areas (3-5″), though likely not as severe as the last flooding.

    • Richard August 3, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

      Confused. This is still yesterdays blog. But the forecast map is different ?

  13. Richard August 3, 2017 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Where is Aug 3 blog.

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