August Forecast: We Are Now Moving Into The Sixth Cycle

/August Forecast: We Are Now Moving Into The Sixth Cycle

August Forecast: We Are Now Moving Into The Sixth Cycle

Good morning bloggers,

We have just started the sixth cycle of this years weather pattern. A unique weather pattern sets up every fall according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  The pattern usually begins between the 5th and 10th of October. The pattern that sets up, then evolves, and becomes established during October and November. By December we can see and experience the pattern repeating. Incredibly, the pattern then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer with a regular cycle.  This years cycle fell into the 56-61 day range centered on 58 to 59 days.  Let’s look at what happened around this week in each cycle:

  • Cycle 1, around October 13th:  Kansas City was close to having an early freeze on October 13th.  The low was 35 degrees with a high of 58. Just four days later it was 87 with a low of 71, then it was back down to 38 degrees on the 21st
  • Cycle 2, around December 11th (59 days later):  Kansas City had a low of 20 degrees with a high of 44.  It dropped to 13 on the 12th, and then to NINE DEGREES BELOW ZERO on the 18th.  2″ of snow fell on December 17th, 2 of the whopping 5.3″ of snow this past winter.
  • Cycle 3, around February 8th (59 days later):  The low was 15 degrees with a high of 27. IT WAS 69 degrees just two days later. INCREDIBLE warm up. And, we know how dry it was in February
  • Cycle 4, around April 8th (59 days later):  It was 34 degrees for a low on the 7th, then it warmed up to 77 degrees on the 8th, and then back down to 37 degrees  on the 11th
  • Cycle 5, around June 6th (59 days later):  It was 82 degrees with a low of 65, but wait a second.  It dropped to lows of 59, 58, and 56 degrees on the 7th-8th-9th
  • Cycle 6, around August 4th (59 days later):  It appears we will be in the 50s for lows again later this week which will be close to record lows

The pattern has produced rather similar conditions in each cycle.  A big warm up is still likely near the middle of August. The potential for heavy rainfall will be rather high as well this month. The second halves of each month this year have been wetter than the first halves, with the exception of April, which was close.

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Kansas City came through again.

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Kansas City Forecast For August:

  • Rainfall:  The rainfall amounts will once again vary widely across the Kansas City region.  We are forecasting the same thing that has happened within each month, which is a wetter second half of the month.  There have been areas that have been missed by the heavy rainfall, all around Kansas City, so this is not at slam dunk that it will be above average this month. There will likely be spots that get missed again. The same spots that have been hit by the heavy rain are likely once again to be the spots that get hit again.
  • Temperatures:  The first half will be below average with a  huge warm up likely between the 15th and 20th.  There is a good chance of a second heat wave of the summer during the second half of the month, but that will still likely be surrounded by thunderstorms as we have experienced this summer

A Look At The Pattern:

A strong summer cold front will be developing by Wednesday, and then by Thursday it will be sweeping across the plains and upper midwest. Here is the 7 AM Thursday surface forecast:

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It appears that Kansas City will stay dry from this system as you can see on this rainfall forecast from the overnight GFS model:

gfs_apcpn_us_15

This pattern continues to cycle. We continue to share this weather experience with you, and we appreciate your participation. Here we are moving into August. I think we can all agree that this summer of weather has been quite entertaining. It has been anything but boring.  Have a great day!

Gary

2017-08-02T07:14:54+00:00 August 1st, 2017|General|18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Kurt August 1, 2017 at 6:18 am - Reply

    Is it just wet in certain areas the last half of each month or does this apply to a larger region? Seems like we were missed in the last month and really a stark contrast to the wetter area.

    Would be interesting to see the same analysis for St Joseph, Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita, St Louis etc. I do know that northern Mo, maryville, Bethany etc had a wetter 1st half of July

    Non stop watering up here now with no significant rain in several weeks, all yards without water are going dormant

    • Gary August 1, 2017 at 8:55 am - Reply

      Kurt,

      I wish I had time to do it for every location in the region, and the nation. It is fascinating really when you see it all repeating from cycle to cycle.

      Gary

      • Kurt August 1, 2017 at 9:10 am - Reply

        If I have time, I can go back and at least compile the data for St. Joseph. Seems to always be a rain shadow area when there is a really wet area and right next the the wet area is a dry area, St. Joseph is stuck in the middle of the two areas with decent rain. My total for July is .92, I think from 3 events; I am not counting the sprinkles and showers that didn’t amount to anything in the rain gauge. YTD total is 16.4 inches, which is almost 6 inches below average YTD.

        • MMike August 1, 2017 at 11:41 am - Reply

          Hey Kurt,

          You reported this:
          Kurt July 14, 2017 at 9:07 am – Reply
          Fortunately we got 1.5 inches early Thursday morning just south of St. Joseph.

          How can your monthly total be at .92??

          • Kurt August 1, 2017 at 5:41 pm - Reply

            thanks to the sprinkler the day before, I forgot to dump the rain gage that I reported from. I only got .7 from that rain event.

            • Kurt August 1, 2017 at 5:42 pm - Reply

              If I could post pics, I would show some of the yards around town, really brown yards if they aren’t watered.

              • MMike August 1, 2017 at 5:50 pm

                Kurt,

                Oh you don’t have to do that, I believe ya!

                At least we have wonderful weather and not 95 and windy.

  2. Michael Casteel August 1, 2017 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Here are my July rain events for the month in Maryville, MO. I recorded 8 rain events over the 31 days. The biggest was on July 13th, with 2.29″ and the smallest amount was a trace on July 14th. Corn and beans are looking amazing up here in Nodaway County. Farmers are smiling ear to ear, good day bloggers!
    Michael

  3. Three7s August 1, 2017 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Models show a chance of rain this weekend. Should be interesting to see how many times that changes.

  4. stl78 August 1, 2017 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Gary or anyone, how many 100 degree days were forecast this yr

    • Snowflake August 1, 2017 at 12:29 pm - Reply

      In this blog post, Gary forecast 5 days over 100 degrees for July, 2017 alone:
      http://weather2020.com/2017/02/28/severe-weather-risks-right-on-the-lrc-calendar/

      • Gary August 1, 2017 at 6:21 pm - Reply

        The computer model forecasted those temps. I thought we would hit 100, however. We will make another run at it later this month. Remember, our model is definitely doing well, but just like any model there will be some biases, and we are making adjustments. The model gets smarter as we move through the cycles. We blended cycles and the highest July temperature was actually 98 degrees. So, the 4 to 5 month forecast had those 100s in there, but the two month one was spot on. Not bad.

        Gary

    • Gary August 1, 2017 at 6:24 pm - Reply

      I thought we would do it, based on this pattern. The model predicted a few days early on, but the updated one from two months ago took the highest down to 98 degrees which has been pretty good so far.

      Gary

  5. Joe August 1, 2017 at 2:24 pm - Reply

    Gary,

    Just curious as to your opinion on this, In eastern Jackson County, I show that we hit 100 three times. I have three different thermometers including and Acu Rite and all three showed 100-102. No, I realize the official reading is at KCI however, in my humble opinion, your forecast of hitting 100 in July verified? It is no different then having rain on the South side but not the North side, just because KCI may show a deficit doesn’t mean the entire city should so why is there only one official temperature location? Oh and for anybody that may be wondering, all temp. sensors are over grass, one 12′, one 6′ and one is approx. 4′ off the ground

    • Gary August 1, 2017 at 6:06 pm - Reply

      Yes, Joe, perhaps we can say we verified. It has been a fascinating summer and I believe August will be just as entertaining.

      Gary

  6. Rockdoc August 1, 2017 at 3:02 pm - Reply

    Ran into an interesting article regarding two hurricanes that “dance” around each other before one of them eventually merges with the other. Pretty cool phenomena weather-wise. There’s video that shows it happening. Maybe that’s what we need here with two lows dancing around Kansas City so that everyone gets some rain 😂 🌦🌀🌧🌀🌦

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/31/the-science-behind-this-strange-dance-between-hurricanes-hilary-and-irwin/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.79f58586aa79

  7. stl78 August 1, 2017 at 4:18 pm - Reply

    Thank u snowflake…i thiught there was a number thrown out there. It would have been easily doable if not for the higher humidity and dew pts. Heck st louis had 8 days in a row over 100 and broke a record at 108 dating back to the early 1900s, so it was close in that respect

  8. MMike August 1, 2017 at 4:55 pm - Reply

    St. Louis didn’t have the moisture we did…the only thing holding KC back was the lush landscape which in turn gave us the wonderful high dew points.

    We had a 105+ heat index many times during that 2 week stretch. In my book..that’s good for a 100 degree prediction.

    Plus, like Joe said, many around the area did hit 100.

    It was hot for a bit, but not a crazy hot July as we only finished 0.8 above average on temps. The LRC predicted that those two weeks would be a heat wave, it did a pretty darn good job.

    Would you believe if I told u that temps so far this summer are below average..Well, they are.

    If summer ended now, it would go down as a cooler/wetter then average summer. There’s a problem..we have the other half of summer to go.

    Will this summer go down as cooler/wetter then average? Anybody know??

    Come on Royals!!

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