The Eclipse Forecast Updated

/The Eclipse Forecast Updated

The Eclipse Forecast Updated

Good Morning Bloggers,

A Heat Wave is expanding over the plains and we will look at the weather pattern in just a minute, but let us begin this blog with the updated weather forecast for the eclipse. 55 days before the eclipse we issued our first forecast based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and this forecast has not changed at all. It will not change as the pattern is cycling regularly and we are in the same pattern that began last fall. The new pattern will begin setting up in late September and October and we will begin that discussion in a couple of months.  The weather pattern is cycling regularly as we have shared with you for years. Astronomical cycles are a bit more obvious and astronomers are likely the best forecasters of future events in the world. They know exactly, to the second, when the eclipse will begin and end, and they made this forecast years ago. It will be accurate. There are other cycles we know of in astronomy quite well.

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Above, you can see our hypothesis that we have used for decades to forecast the weather and we are getting better and better and now there is a computer model that combines our art with science.  This years pattern is cycling in the 56 to 61 day range centered on 58-59 days.

CPH BLEND 3 Years Lines F

The map above shows the cycling index blend from the past three years. The jet stream is currently reaching its weakest strength and farthest north position as it does every year at this point. I am just showing you this graphic to showcase how the pattern is cycling, and we have shared with you how accurate our forecasts have been at Weather2020 for the past decade. We “know” what the pattern will likely look like from 1 day to up to 300 days into the future, and this is why you can count on this eclipse weather forecast.

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The eclipse will be viewed by millions of americans and people from around the world that will be lining up along the path. Our team at KSHB-TV and Weather2020 will be strategically located closer to KC to share the eclipse with you. It is still one month away.  Here is the forecast:

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Tropical Storm Cindy had just crossed the Gulf of Mexico coast line and it was weakening as it moved into the Tennessee Valley. The cloud cover is something we do not want to see as we get into August 21st.  There is an increased chance of a tropical storm again within five days of the eclipse, and this time it would likely be a major hurricane as the same pattern cycles back through that already produced Cindy. There may also be a few thunderstorm complexes across the plains moving southeast as well. For these reasons we continue that forecast of yellow, which means there is a chance of clouds blocking out the sun in spots. In this yellow area there is still s good 70% chance of it being clear enough for you to have good viewing.  The green areas continue to look great for eclipse viewing.

Todays Weather Pattern:

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It has been 1,411 days since Kansas City has been 100 degrees or higher at KCI Airport, the official recording station. The day with the best chance to break this streak, to end this almost four year long stretch is Saturday. Why? Take a look at the surface forecast valid Saturday afternoon:

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Kansas City will likely be just south of this developing cold front. The temperatures will range from the 60s in Nebraska to over 100 degrees over Kansas. Just ahead of these fronts we get what is called frontal compression and temperatures can be forced to go a bit higher. If there are no clouds, and this forecast map above is accurate, then I believe KC will reach that 100 degree mark at 4:30 PM on Saturday afternoon.  Then, there will be a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night.

Have a great day and share this post with your friends so they can have an eclipse forecast!

Gary

2017-09-30T05:43:15+00:00 July 20th, 2017|General|13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. Richard July 20, 2017 at 8:28 am - Reply

    Gary
    Heard you on 810 Sports radio.
    Have a good time escaping this heat in CA at Big Bear Lake. How long will you be gone ?
    I was there many moons ago. Beautiful area.

    Do you think these next 3 days will be our only heat wave ? Hope so

    • Gary July 20, 2017 at 8:53 am - Reply

      I will broadcast live from there on Facebook. It was a decision around two months ago when I saw that Colin Hay was in concert at this small venue in Big Bear. I decided to go, and I will post the story in tomorrows blog as it is so weather related. I am just taking Friday off.

      Gary

  2. blue flash July 20, 2017 at 12:26 pm - Reply

    75 degree dewpoint and rising again today at KCI. No way it hits 100 with that kind of dewpoint. Do we expect the dewpoint to fall into the mid-60’s by Saturday? That is where I think it would need to be to allow a run up to 100.

  3. Michael Garner July 20, 2017 at 2:03 pm - Reply

    I’m gonna have to break from my own definition of a heat and call the last two weeks pretty rough overall BUT will take these high dew points then a drought. In 2012 it got above 95 so many times because we were in a drought. So glad that those that said we would be in drought for the next few years were wrong. With all that said I am SO ready for September to get here with the chance of our first fall front with little or lesser dew points!!!

  4. blue flash July 20, 2017 at 2:26 pm - Reply

    Ugh 110 heat index at KCI

  5. Kurt July 20, 2017 at 3:04 pm - Reply

    115 heat index at St. Joseph

    • KS Jones July 20, 2017 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      It hit 104° at 4 PM at the Manhattan airport, but the relative humidity was only 33%, so the heat index was only 112°
      link:
      http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMHK.html

      • Gary July 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm - Reply

        Only 112°? That is still very high! We are going for the ending of the 100 degree streak by Friday, or more likely Saturday. One thing that could go wrong is the front arriving earlier Saturday. Right now the timing seems just right for a bump up to 100 to break the 1,412 day streak.

        Gary

        • KS Jones July 20, 2017 at 7:40 pm - Reply

          Yeah, fairly hot, and it reminded me of a concert I attended outside of Pozo California several years back. The heat there might not have seemed so bad if I hadn’t been living 3 blocks from the ocean on the central coast of California, where the marine layer kept summertime high temperstures around 65°. That was the only place I’ve ever lived where I had to use a furnace year-round .

  6. Jason July 20, 2017 at 3:17 pm - Reply

    BRUTAL. That’s all I can say. Absolutely BRUTAL.

  7. Richard July 20, 2017 at 7:43 pm - Reply

    Gary
    It’s a toss-up. You looked like one of the blue man group or a smurf when they painted your head tonight on kshb. Lol !
    You’re a good sport. What will you do if the Royals win tonight ? 😄

  8. Rockdoc July 20, 2017 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    Gary, the BIG QUESTION for people in our viewing area, is if there is a chance for clouds will the clouds be widespread, more to the north or more to the south? I know we can head northwest to C)Nebraska & Wyoming area but on a more localized scale where would the clods most likely be?

    Thanks 😊

  9. Alexander July 27, 2017 at 1:15 pm - Reply

    Gary! You do need to be near the middle to actually view the solar eclipse with your naked eye! 100% total solar eclipse is the only time you can look at an eclipse with the naked eye and see the light bending around the edge of the moon for a spectacular 2 minutes. Kansas City is about 30 minutes south of where this is happening and is 99% covered instead of 100%. Wear some sunglasses unless you are going to St. Joe, Marshall, or Columbia.

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