Good Morning Bloggers,
A Heat Wave is expanding over the plains and we will look at the weather pattern in just a minute, but let us begin this blog with the updated weather forecast for the eclipse. 55 days before the eclipse we issued our first forecast based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and this forecast has not changed at all. It will not change as the pattern is cycling regularly and we are in the same pattern that began last fall. The new pattern will begin setting up in late September and October and we will begin that discussion in a couple of months. The weather pattern is cycling regularly as we have shared with you for years. Astronomical cycles are a bit more obvious and astronomers are likely the best forecasters of future events in the world. They know exactly, to the second, when the eclipse will begin and end, and they made this forecast years ago. It will be accurate. There are other cycles we know of in astronomy quite well.
Above, you can see our hypothesis that we have used for decades to forecast the weather and we are getting better and better and now there is a computer model that combines our art with science. This years pattern is cycling in the 56 to 61 day range centered on 58-59 days.
The map above shows the cycling index blend from the past three years. The jet stream is currently reaching its weakest strength and farthest north position as it does every year at this point. I am just showing you this graphic to showcase how the pattern is cycling, and we have shared with you how accurate our forecasts have been at Weather2020 for the past decade. We “know” what the pattern will likely look like from 1 day to up to 300 days into the future, and this is why you can count on this eclipse weather forecast.
The eclipse will be viewed by millions of americans and people from around the world that will be lining up along the path. Our team at KSHB-TV and Weather2020 will be strategically located closer to KC to share the eclipse with you. It is still one month away. Here is the forecast:
Tropical Storm Cindy had just crossed the Gulf of Mexico coast line and it was weakening as it moved into the Tennessee Valley. The cloud cover is something we do not want to see as we get into August 21st. There is an increased chance of a tropical storm again within five days of the eclipse, and this time it would likely be a major hurricane as the same pattern cycles back through that already produced Cindy. There may also be a few thunderstorm complexes across the plains moving southeast as well. For these reasons we continue that forecast of yellow, which means there is a chance of clouds blocking out the sun in spots. In this yellow area there is still s good 70% chance of it being clear enough for you to have good viewing. The green areas continue to look great for eclipse viewing.
Todays Weather Pattern:
It has been 1,411 days since Kansas City has been 100 degrees or higher at KCI Airport, the official recording station. The day with the best chance to break this streak, to end this almost four year long stretch is Saturday. Why? Take a look at the surface forecast valid Saturday afternoon:
Kansas City will likely be just south of this developing cold front. The temperatures will range from the 60s in Nebraska to over 100 degrees over Kansas. Just ahead of these fronts we get what is called frontal compression and temperatures can be forced to go a bit higher. If there are no clouds, and this forecast map above is accurate, then I believe KC will reach that 100 degree mark at 4:30 PM on Saturday afternoon. Then, there will be a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night.
Have a great day and share this post with your friends so they can have an eclipse forecast!