Good morning bloggers,

We are having our tech team working on the blog, so if you see double posts just bare with us for a while longer. We should have this done by the end of the week.

We will look into the shifting weather pattern in today’s blog entry.  The weather pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC. We are in the same pattern that produced very little snow during the winter, but a adequate rainfall during the spring. Our west, the storm systems continue to come into the western states and way after the rainy season has ended some big rainfall producing systems have continued. They have just shifted north. The jet stream and flow aloft continues to weaken and summer continues to gradually build in.

Kansas City’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Absolutely gorgeous. Light winds from the east as the air continues to flow in from the Great Lakes. High:  80°
  • Tonight:  Clear and pleasant. Light winds. Low: 59°. It will be great for the big game out at Kauffman Stadium between the Astros and the Royals. Temperatures will fall to around 70 degrees by the end of the game. Perfect!
  • Thursday:  Sunny and warm. Light southeast winds around 5-10 mph. High:  81°
  • Friday-Sunday: A warming trend with temperatures getting up to near 90 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. South winds increasing over the weekend at 10-25 mph.

The Weather Pattern:

A big ridge aloft is developing over the middle of North America right now. You can see this well by looking at the flow at around half way up in the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight and thus the pressure is 0 mb. MB stands for millibars.  The surface of the earth has an average pressure of around 1013.25 mb. So, 500 mb is that middle layer and this is located around 18,000 feet above sea level.  Let’s take a look at this upper level flow valid later this week:

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By Friday evening a big ridge will be slowly moving across the plains states extending from Mexico to Canada. The upper level high, the H I plotted, is forecast to be located near southern Baja California. This is the “heat wave creating machine” or anticyclone. This is the opposite of a storm system and there will not be any significant heat waves until this system builds over the United States. We are expecting this to happen in July. For now it is suppressed far to the south.  Energy is coming into the Pacific northwest and moving off the northeastern coast. Look at what is forecast to happen by mid-next week:

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The energy coming into the west coast is forecast by just about every computer model to produce a rather major late spring storm system over the northern plains just west of Bismarck, ND.  The ridge will shift east into the eastern third of North America and this will provide the conditions for a big warming trend over the eastern half of the nation ahead of this storm system.

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At the surface of the earth we have this forecast map valid one week from today at 7 AM Wednesday, June 14. That strong late spring storm can be seen quite well with a deep surface low pressure area forecast to develop right underneath that upper low. A weak front will be dragging across the plains and this is one of the features we will watch and monitor closely for thunderstorm development late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

Between now and early next week

The weather will continue rather quiet in the middle of the nation, and it will be drying out over the east after a rather wet week. Out west the storm will move in with some high mountain snow and some coastal rainfall. The middle of the nation will continue to be dry. In fact, Kansas City will go through the 12th of June with almost no measurable rainfall this month. KCI Airport has had a total of 0.o3″ this month.

Rainfall forecast between now and Tuesday morning: 

gfs_apcpn_us_26

The white areas show where there isn’t even one drop of rain likely.  So, we have a dry stretch of weather over eastern Kansas through early next week. This is the driest stretch of weather since spring began.

Weather2020 continues to advance the cycling weather pattern technology.  The same pattern that set up last fall continues to cycle today. Kansas City has not had an official 100 degree day since September 8, 2013. Yes, that is almost four full summers without a 100 degree day. Our system is forecasting a few runs at 100 degrees in July and August. Take a look at this August projection using our new model:

Screen Shot 2017-06-07 at 7.45.48 AM

This is our automated computer model. We will also continue add our “human” interpretations to the pattern which are essential to combine the art and science in bringing you the most accurate weather information. We believe the nearly  four year streak will end this summer.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience!  We will go in-depth on 41 Action News and on KSHB.com.

Gary