Dry For Another Six Days

/Dry For Another Six Days

Dry For Another Six Days

Good morning bloggers,

We are having our tech team working on the blog, so if you see double posts just bare with us for a while longer. We should have this done by the end of the week.

We will look into the shifting weather pattern in today’s blog entry.  The weather pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC. We are in the same pattern that produced very little snow during the winter, but a adequate rainfall during the spring. Our west, the storm systems continue to come into the western states and way after the rainy season has ended some big rainfall producing systems have continued. They have just shifted north. The jet stream and flow aloft continues to weaken and summer continues to gradually build in.

Kansas City’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Absolutely gorgeous. Light winds from the east as the air continues to flow in from the Great Lakes. High:  80°
  • Tonight:  Clear and pleasant. Light winds. Low: 59°. It will be great for the big game out at Kauffman Stadium between the Astros and the Royals. Temperatures will fall to around 70 degrees by the end of the game. Perfect!
  • Thursday:  Sunny and warm. Light southeast winds around 5-10 mph. High:  81°
  • Friday-Sunday: A warming trend with temperatures getting up to near 90 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. South winds increasing over the weekend at 10-25 mph.

The Weather Pattern:

A big ridge aloft is developing over the middle of North America right now. You can see this well by looking at the flow at around half way up in the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight and thus the pressure is 0 mb. MB stands for millibars.  The surface of the earth has an average pressure of around 1013.25 mb. So, 500 mb is that middle layer and this is located around 18,000 feet above sea level.  Let’s take a look at this upper level flow valid later this week:

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By Friday evening a big ridge will be slowly moving across the plains states extending from Mexico to Canada. The upper level high, the H I plotted, is forecast to be located near southern Baja California. This is the “heat wave creating machine” or anticyclone. This is the opposite of a storm system and there will not be any significant heat waves until this system builds over the United States. We are expecting this to happen in July. For now it is suppressed far to the south.  Energy is coming into the Pacific northwest and moving off the northeastern coast. Look at what is forecast to happen by mid-next week:

3

The energy coming into the west coast is forecast by just about every computer model to produce a rather major late spring storm system over the northern plains just west of Bismarck, ND.  The ridge will shift east into the eastern third of North America and this will provide the conditions for a big warming trend over the eastern half of the nation ahead of this storm system.

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At the surface of the earth we have this forecast map valid one week from today at 7 AM Wednesday, June 14. That strong late spring storm can be seen quite well with a deep surface low pressure area forecast to develop right underneath that upper low. A weak front will be dragging across the plains and this is one of the features we will watch and monitor closely for thunderstorm development late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

Between now and early next week

The weather will continue rather quiet in the middle of the nation, and it will be drying out over the east after a rather wet week. Out west the storm will move in with some high mountain snow and some coastal rainfall. The middle of the nation will continue to be dry. In fact, Kansas City will go through the 12th of June with almost no measurable rainfall this month. KCI Airport has had a total of 0.o3″ this month.

Rainfall forecast between now and Tuesday morning: 

gfs_apcpn_us_26

The white areas show where there isn’t even one drop of rain likely.  So, we have a dry stretch of weather over eastern Kansas through early next week. This is the driest stretch of weather since spring began.

Weather2020 continues to advance the cycling weather pattern technology.  The same pattern that set up last fall continues to cycle today. Kansas City has not had an official 100 degree day since September 8, 2013. Yes, that is almost four full summers without a 100 degree day. Our system is forecasting a few runs at 100 degrees in July and August. Take a look at this August projection using our new model:

Screen Shot 2017-06-07 at 7.45.48 AM

This is our automated computer model. We will also continue add our “human” interpretations to the pattern which are essential to combine the art and science in bringing you the most accurate weather information. We believe the nearly  four year streak will end this summer.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience!  We will go in-depth on 41 Action News and on KSHB.com.

Gary

2017-06-08T07:54:22+00:00 June 7th, 2017|General|11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Urbanity June 7, 2017 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Forecast calls for mid-upper 90’s this weekend here in central KS. I can see a 90 day dry spell on the horizon, don’t mortgage the farm yet on your futures bet.

    On a side note, just got hit with a huge future tax bill, on top of the huge amount of taxes I’m already paying, just want to thank the weak KS legislature for wanting to fund high school athletics, ridiculous federal compliance officers…er…I mean superintendent salaries, and 99 out of a 100 social programs designed to transfer wealth from the earners to the non-earners, all paid off the sweat of the hard working man and woman. You know if that D-Ward (Pelosi’s nephew) out of Wichita is happy with it then it is bad for all hard working Kansans. Thank you Brownback for trying to reduce the size of government, but the Prog’s and their media (KWCH, D-Ward’s personal broadcasting network, is the worst progressive outlet in the state) got control of people and they forced you out. And before all the prog’s on this blog get busy retaliating, just remember you are wrong, will always be wrong, and history has proven that and will prove it again…unfortunately it will be proven here in America instead of the other nations that drove their people out with the massive government control.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am - Reply

      Keith – you got rain yesterday, now a 90 day dry spell is on the way? Would you care to wager something on that? Sorry, Brownback had a heck of an opportunity to prove his “economic experiment” could work. Instead, it failed completely, utterly, and miserably. The new tax system FAILED to bring the huge flow of businesses as it was sold to Kansas tax payers, it flat did not happen! You think we are supposed to function with a 200+ million shortfall year after year? We tried his way, AKA trickle down which to your point, history has proven over and over again it doesn’t work, period. I am all for reducing size of government ( RESPONSIBLY), but his cuts were not to Education and our roads, not government size! It would do you some good to stop labeling anybody that disagrees with you, PROG, Liberal, globalist, just labels to try and knock your fellow American taxpayer that rightfully disagrees with you. Or I’ll just have to label you a sour-puss. I have a 3 year old going to school soon, I for one an thankful her schools will be funded properly and not gutted so some business somewhere can get off without paying their fair share of taxes.

      • Urbanity June 7, 2017 at 5:18 pm - Reply

        Hume, it’s not labeling…don’t you get it? Progs are Progs, they’re not frogs I’m calling Prog’s, they are people who support high taxation and a do-everything-for-you government. They are basically very stupid people (some Progs don’t even know they are Progs and call themselves Democrats) who cannot see the long term consequences of their Progressive/Globalist ideology, and they have no respect for history or the sacrifices made on their behalf by a previous generation. Prog’s are mostly the millennials, a group of “entitled” people, who find happiness alone with technology and life is good as long they can do what they want to do. I have some Prog’s in my extended family, they make me sick though, I can’t love a helpless good for nothing person, one with no faith in God or anything, and one who only see’s life as means to gain satisfaction for his or herself.

        Regarding the state of Kansas taxation policy, the Kansas legislation made a promise, if you move your company here, or if you invest in your existing company, we will not tax your business income. Whether your a Dem or Repub, you should honor what was signed into law even though you disagreed with it. Any business that was created during 2012-2017 should remain exempt at least for 10 years. What if I told you Hume, sell your ranch and come take over mine and it’s yours to keep and operate and gain revenues all for yourself your whole life. Then four years later I change my mind and I abruptly take it back, but you already had sold yours, you’ve got nothing now.

        How about you go tell my employees that received a salary/wage increases resulting from the tax break that I have to take it back. You think they will remain at my business, only maybe. I can’t tell my employees that, so instead I take my price increase to the public, if they reject it, what’s next?

        And seriously, the schools are not good enough??? You think money makes a school better? That’s hogwash, the schools in this nation are unbelievable, it’s the education that sucks. Progs in the school system, the most ignorant un-compassionate worthless humans teaching our kids in a standoffish manner. They are the worst. I still have two kids in school, I could tell you stories about these ignorant people that lead these classes. It’s a real shame. And school athletics, we pay college coaches 7 million a year in Lawrence to coach a stupid game of basketball. The high schools have us going all over the place all year long, spending huge sums of money during a period of fiscal crunch.

        I’m out of time, but you are wrong Hume on this one. It’s nothing to do with trickle down, Brownback was not a trickle down philosophy. You cut costs when revenues are down, you do not go back to an already 40-60% taxed society and jack em up again.

        • KS Jones June 7, 2017 at 8:57 pm - Reply

          On the topic of the salaries for coaches, you might want to read the piece linked below. 
          http://kcur.org/post/thanks-tax-cuts-bill-self-highest-paid-state-employee-owes-little-kansas-income-taxes

          • Urbanity June 8, 2017 at 10:13 am - Reply

            The taxes he pays has nothing to do with the fact that he is an overpaid government employee. My point is Self gets paid way to much to coach basketball, and you and I are paying for it. Cut costs, cut these ridiculous government entity (schools and colleges) expenses. Do you know the first four months of all KS revenues is what it takes to run the education system in this state? That’s not even including federal funds received for teaching socialism in the schools.

            KSJones, you must be related to Van Jones based on your comments.

    • Anonymous June 7, 2017 at 12:00 pm - Reply

      This isn’t a political blog, its a weather blog.

    • Brad61 June 7, 2017 at 2:08 pm - Reply

      This isn’t a political blog, it is a weather blog. And besides most of what you said is hogwash! And besides you are always right, and history has proven that is BS too. Stick to the weather, something you know something about!

  2. CRW June 7, 2017 at 1:19 pm - Reply

    The political thing goes both ways-and we know about opinions. Stick to the weather….

    • REAL HUMEDUDE June 7, 2017 at 1:59 pm - Reply

      oh boo hoo, give me your 2 cents while your at it! it’s a slow weather period and Keith had to vent, and I had to vent as a result of his vent so it’s all good my friend l. we slightly digressed …..

  3. Weatherby Tom June 7, 2017 at 2:16 pm - Reply

    meanwhile, back to the weather…How many folks on this blog have begun watering their lawns regularly? It has begun for me, I usually water heavily once a day, then wait and repeat 3 days later. My lawn is still very green, and I want to keep it that way. May it rain again and soon!

  4. Bill in Lawrence June 7, 2017 at 6:22 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good Wednesday evening to you sir. I hope you have had a chance to get out and enjoy this weather; the past few weeks really have been very nice and the past 2 days-just wow!!

    I’m going to pretty much go out on a limb with this post and as I’ve already said this LRC has put a clown suit on me, I’m sure that when I fall from this limb, I will also be wearing a clown suit.

    I think everyone would agree that this LRC is going to produce some fairly long dry stretches. I mean there are going to be times that trying to find rain will be like searching for the Fountain of Lamneth and battling the Necromancer all that the same time.

    However, I would respectfully argue that while this is not the best LRC for us, it is still not a Charlie Weis coached KU football team nor is it a rendition of the 2017 KC Royals; there are enough players on the field I would argue to keep us from a full on drought ala 2012 and I doubt this is even in the top 10 worse LRCs for our area. Beyond the fact that I think this LRC can keep us from that territory, this year is really not like 2012 at all. In 2012 good moisture really shut down after March. That has not occurred this year even in the drier areas. Also in 2012, the entire area was shut out of moisture. There have been chances; there have been clusters of storms; there have been fronts. Not everyone has benefited equally obviously, but in 2012 there was a 7 state area that missed out on everything.

    I will not deny that it is going to be hot and very dry for stretches this summer; even beyond what is normal hot and dry summer for our area and do believe we will go over a 100 more than once. However, I will put forth that we will not enter into a true drought. We will come out of this LRC bored, testy, sick of heat, sick of dry stretches and more than ready for a new LRC, but the area will be better off than in 2012, 1980, 1955, 1936 or 1859-1862.

    Obviously time will tell; I’ll either be sitting on top of this limb come September or I’ll be falling while wearing a clown suit.

    Have a great evening everyone. My house is sitting at 71 with no AC; if you had asked me to take a bet in March that this would be the case on June 7th I would have lost big time. What a gorgeous stretch of weather!!!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

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